Phillies Discussing Extension With J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies have been “quietly trying to” negotiate a contract extension with star catcher J.T. Realmuto and his representatives, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports. It isn’t known how far along in the process the two sides are, though Salisbury cautions that a deal might not be completed until later in the offseason for a variety of reasons.
It isn’t any secret that the Phils are hoping to keep Realmuto over the long term, as GM Matt Klentak stated that sitting down with Realmuto about a new contract was “one of our offseason goals.” Realmuto is only under team control through 2020, and is slated to be one of the most sought-after members of next winter’s free agent class unless the Phillies can lock him up in the interim.
Realmuto is projected to earn $10.3MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, a more-than-reasonable sum for the sport’s best all-around catcher. That one remaining arb year, however, could also factor into extension talks, as Salisbury suggests that the Phillies might prefer to work out Realmuto’s 2020 salary first rather than fold 2020 into a multi-year arrangement. The average annual value of any contract is counted as a player’s luxury tax number, and thus the Phillies would surely want to keep Realmuto in the $10.3MM range for 2020 in order to give them more potential room to spend this season without crossing the $208MM luxury tax threshold. A Realmuto extension (and subsequent higher AAV) therefore wouldn’t kick in until 2021 — Salisbury observes that Jake Arrieta and David Robertson will both be off the Phillies’ books at that point, allowing for more spending flexibility.
This isn’t to say that the tax threshold is necessarily a major concern for Philadelphia at the moment. Owner John Middleton has suggested in the past that the Phils would be willing to pay the luxury tax if it meant adding the final pieces to a World Series contender, but not for “a little gain,” or “a better chance to be the second wild-card team.” As presently constructed, the Phillies have a lot of work to do in order to approach title contention, so while Klentak and company certainly seem poised to be aggressive in the wake of a disappointing 2019 season, it seems like the club will stop short of exceeding the $208MM figure this winter.
Roster Resource projects the Phillies’ luxury tax number at slightly beyond $186.34MM, and that figure could certainly drop based on some rumored moves — potential non-tenders or trades of Maikel Franco ($6.7MM in arbitration) or Cesar Hernandez ($11.8MM), for instance. That leaves the team with plenty of space to acquire multiple players, perhaps the starting pitching upgrades that seem to be a clear need.
The majority of contract extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training or even slightly beyond Opening Day, as teams generally prefer to get their offseason business completed before turning to in-house matters. Though there is something of a ticking clock on Realmuto given that he is only a Phillie for one more season, the All-Star catcher has himself expressed interest in remaining with the team, so both sides would seem to have mutual interest in completing a new deal.
NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Karsay, Mets, Braves
The latest from the NL East…
- As of last Tuesday, the Nationals had yet to speak with Ryan Zimmerman or his agents, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Zimmerman is a free agent for the first time in his 15-year career, after the Nats spent $2MM to buy out their $18MM club option on the veteran first baseman for the 2020 season. Back in August, Zimmerman said that remaining in Washington was a priority, and he was willing to play on a series of less-pricey one-year contracts. Assuming he hasn’t changed that stance, Zimmerman could be viewed by the Nationals as something of a fallback, as the team may feel safe in first exploring other first base options.
- The Mets will interview Steve Karsay for their pitching coach opening, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Karsay is currently the Brewers‘ bullpen coach, after spending 2012-18 as a pitching coach in the Indians’ minor league system. Of course, most fans know Karsay best from his 11 seasons and 603 1/3 career MLB innings with five different teams (most notably the A’s, Indians, and Yankees) from 1993-2006. Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and University Of Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter are the only other known candidates linked to the Mets’ job.
- Between Will Smith, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene, the Braves could be committing roughly $33.5MM in salary to three relievers next season, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes. Greene’s salary is still up in the air, as the Braves could potentially non-tender the righty rather than pay him $6.5MM in projected arbitration salary. A non-tender or trade could be possible if the Braves are wary of overspending on their bullpen, since $33.5MM is rather a hefty sum for a trio that only featured one member (Smith) who posted really outstanding numbers in 2019. Tucker observes that the Braves already have around $100MM (barring any more non-tenders) on the books for player payroll for next season, which leaves them with quite a bit of spending capacity if the team is willing or able to match its season-ending $144MM payroll figure from last year.
NL Notes: Mets, Rockies, Rodgers, Reds, Boddy
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen made waves last offseason with his aggression in the trade market, dealing from the Mets’ minor leagues to bolster the Major League roster with the likes of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. However, Van Wagenen suggested at the GM meetings that his club will be hesitant to once again dip into the farm system to facilitate trades, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The Mets’ crop of prospects isn’t an especially deep one—FanGraphs ranks them as having the 22nd-best minor-league system in baseball—and particularly lacks players who are close to the Majors and could contribute in 2020. That said, Healey believes that high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors—a group that includes the likes of Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, and Matthew Allan, among others—will be hard to pry from Van Wagenen’s hands. After an 86-win season last year, it seems that the Mets feel they can make the jump to contention while still hanging onto their young prospects in hopes of maximizing their competitive window.
Here’s more from around the Senior Circuit…
- Following the Reds‘ hire of Driveline founder Kyle Boddy to serve as the organization’s pitching coordinator, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer offers a glimpse into the Reds’ motivation for targeting Boddy, who had previously never been a full-time employee of an MLB club. In tasking Boddy with developing minor league pitchers, the Reds hope to foster a greater continuity between the philosophies implemented in the Majors and minors. With pitching coach Derek Johnson and staff communicating their message to Boddy, the goal is for the pitching corps to be aligned across all levels of the organization. The addition of Boddy represents a continuation of the Reds’ effort to become more forward-thinking in their player development processes under manager David Bell. And the early returns have been promising: in 2019, the Reds ranked among the top five National League teams in ERA, FIP, and xFIP—a drastic improvement over the prior year, in which Cincy was bottom-three in all three categories.
- Shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies‘ first-round draft choice in 2015, hasn’t enjoyed quite as much success as the only two players drafted before him—Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman—but after an injury-shortened debut campaign, Rodgers is recovering well from shoulder surgery and is setting his sights high for 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Rodgers landed on the injured list in June with a shoulder impingement, but he ultimately opted for surgery after nagging discomfort throughout his minor-league career. He’s expected to be fully healthy ahead of spring training, and Rodgers feels he’s past the initial adjustment period, during which he admits shoulder pain and self-imposed pressure affected his performance. A natural shortstop, Rodgers is obviously blocked by teammate Trevor Story at that position, and he’ll have to overtake Ryan McMahon for regular playing time at second base. But given Rodgers’s pedigree and minor-league track record, there’s no doubt that he has the talent to bounce back in 2020.
Hanwha Eagles Re-Sign Chad Bell
The Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization have re-signed left-hander Chad Bell, the club announced (h/t to Yonhap News Agency). It’s a one-year deal for the 30-year-old, who receives a $900,000 guarantee.
It’s a decent payday for the former Detroit Tigers southpaw, who finished twelfth among 27 qualified KBO starters in 2019 with a 3.50 ERA, per MyKBO Stats. That placed him one spot above Warwick Saupold, another former Detroit pitcher who reunited with Bell as an Eagle last season. The two will remain teammates, as Saupold himself signed a one-year extension with the Eagles two weeks ago. Per Yonhap’s report, the KBO team is also working to bring back former Rangers outfielder Jared Hoying. If that ultimately proves successful, the Eagles will return all three of their foreign-born players in 2020.
Bell is a former 14th-round MLB draft pick who got into 31 games (4 starts) for Detroit from 2017-18. He had a tough go in MLB, pitching to a cumulative 7.11 ERA in 69.2 innings, but he was generally fine in parts of five Triple-A seasons. He’ll now look to build off his solid KBO debut that featured 177.1 innings with the aforementioned 3.50 ERA and a 17.9% strikeout rate (10th among qualifiers) and an 8.4% walk rate (24th).
AL Notes: Devers, Kopech, Martinez, Rangers
We’re coming up on the three-year anniversary of the White Sox–Red Sox Chris Sale blockbuster. It’s tough to say either team regrets that deal at this point. Sale was instrumental in Boston’s 2018 World Series run and remains one’s of baseball’s best pitchers. Chicago, meanwhile, has reaped the benefits of a Yoán Moncada breakout season that saw him garner a down-ballot MVP vote. Michael Kopech, meanwhile, remains one of the sport’s most exciting young pitchers.
That pair (along with Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz) weren’t the only Boston farmhands the White Sox were targeting. At one point, Chicago asked for Rafael Devers, then a 20 year-old in High-A, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn tells David Laurila of Fangraphs. Suffice it to say, Boston has to feel good about rebuffing Devers’ potential inclusion, as he garnered even more MVP support than did Moncada after a breakout 2019 of his own. There’s no indication Devers talks ever got close, it should be noted, but it’s still an interesting counterfactual given the star player he has since become. Some more from the American League:
- Speaking of Kopech, Hahn tells Laurila the fireballer is progressing as expected in his return from Tommy John surgery. The 23-year-old, who went under the knife in September 2018, logged a few innings in instructional league and enters the offseason fully healthy, per the GM. The club will no doubt be careful not to overwork the prized right-hander next season, but he seems on track to be a key factor in Chicago’s rotation mix. Kopech had dazzled in Triple-A in the two months preceding his big league call-up.
- J.D. Martinez opted into his three-year, $62.5MM deal with the Red Sox earlier this month. Rob Bradford of WEEI hears that decision wasn’t an especially difficult one, “hardly coming down to the wire.” That seemingly reflects some tepidness among potential Martinez suitors as agent Scott Boras explored the star hitter’s market in advance of the decision. Speaking entirely speculatively, that could tamp down the likelihood of Martinez opting out after next season (at which point he’ll have to decide on a two-year, $38.7MM deal) or of the Sox finding a buyer if they look to shop Martinez this offseason as a means of cutting payroll. That said, Martinez remains an elite hitter, and other teams’ circumstances and interest can no doubt change in the coming months.
- The Rangers unveiled a new $12.5MM academy in the Dominican Republic Friday, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. As Grant details, the facility is a significant step forward from previous conditions for Texas’ international signees. The Rangers’ front office believes that improving conditions for their youngest prospects will help them flourish on the field; current MLB first baseman Ronald Guzmán tells Grant that in the team’s previous cramped facility, illnesses spread among players quickly, which could no doubt have an adverse impact on players’ performance. Independent on any on-field benefits they’ll reap, the organization deserves credit for improving conditions for its players.
Report: Houston Executive Kevin Goldstein Suggested Scouts Use Cameras To Steal Signs
SUNDAY: Kevin Goldstein sent the email in question, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Goldstein, a special assistant to Astros’ GM Jeff Lunhow, joined the organization as a pro scouting coordinator in 2012, following stints writing for Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Baseball America, among other outlets. Goldstein did not respond to Passan’s request for comment.
Interestingly, Passan’s sources characterize scouts’ responses to Goldstein’s email as “mixed.” While some were indeed upset about the potential reputational harm that could come with involving cameras in a sign-stealing operation, as Rosenthal and Drellich indicated yesterday, others were “intrigued” by the idea.
SATURDAY: Another entry has been logged in the ongoing saga surrounding allegations of improper sign stealing by the 2017 Astros. Earlier this week, we first heard accusations that the team used illegal technology–including a center field camera and a clubhouse tunnel television–to try to decode opponent signs. Several former Houston employees, including pitcher Mike Fiers, issued on-record comments regarding the team’s system of sign stealing, and league officials were said to be in the process of gathering “tangible evidence” in regard to the team’s alleged improprieties. Tonight’s follow-up report from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic now indicates that the team’s use of camera technology may not have been limited to center field (link).
An Astros executive, per the report, emailed several club scouts in August 2017 with the suggestion that cameras be used to steal opponent signs. The club was interested in preparing its sign-stealing practices in advance of the 2017 postseason, and the email’s sender–who goes unnamed in the report–urged scouts to try multiple methods to get a better view into the opposition’s dugout.
“What we are looking for is how much we can see, how we would log things, if we need cameras/binoculars, etc.,” the sender wrote in an email message to Houston scouts. “So go to game, see what you can (or can’t) do and report back your findings.” This type of organizational messaging, which is said to have also extended to phone calls and chats within a group Slack channel, reportedly led to a “confounded feeling” among the club’s scouting group, with several scouts voicing their dismay to team management.
It’s important to note that, under MLB rules, the stealing of signs is understood to fall under the broad auspices of gamesmanship. It is mostly the alleged introduction of technology that could potentially lead to penalties against the club, as was the case when the Red Sox were caught using Apple Watch technology to steal signs in 2017. Even if Houston is proven to have used cameras, commissioner Rob Manfred will still have the latitude to decide whether or not the club’s actions truly represented a rule violation; central to that decision would, for instance, be the league’s findings as to whether the club used their videos after or during the game in question.
As noted previously, the Astros also faced scrutiny regarding sign-stealing during the 2018 playoffs. The Indians and Red Sox at that point identified a person connected to the Astros named Kyle McLaughlin allegedly taking pictures near opposing dugouts. An MLB investigation found no wrongdoing on Houston’s part in connection to that incident, but it remains to be seen what the league’s new investigation might yield, and what forms of penalty–financial, draft-related, or otherwise–the club might face if the league finds damning evidence of organizational malpractice.
Quick Hits: Giants, Belt, Kapler, MLBPA, Licensing
Earlier this offseason, the Giants were said to be underway on a few structural changes to Oracle Park, including a plan to shift team and visiting bullpens from along the baselines to beyond the outfield fence in center field. Today’s report from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports brings a few more details on that planned renovation, complete with photos snagged during a recent offseason event at Oracle (link).
It may be interesting to consider how these changes may affect the performance of the club’s on-field personnel. Oracle has long been known to be one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the bigs, owing to both the dense air surrounding San Francisco Bay and the park’s infamous “Triples Alley” chasm in right-center field. According to Pavlovic’s report, the deepest part of this “Triples Alley” area will be moved from 421 feet to approximately 410 feet as a result of the current offseason’s changes. This adjustment could be a huge aid to first baseman Brandon Belt, who has logged 32 triples since entering the league in 2011–far and away tops among major league first baggers (presumably, Belt wouldn’t have minded a few of those triples clearing his home park’s fence). Whether club pitchers will be as happy with the reconstruction is an altogether different question.
More notes from around the game on a quiet Saturday eve…
- New Giants manager Gabe Kapler was often the subject of intense personal scrutiny during his time as manager of the Phillies, and, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tells it, Kapler is still an individual who cuts a unique profile within league circles (link). In a wide-ranging personal interest piece, Slusser references one MLB coach’s description of Kapler as “condescending” and one staff member’s description of Kapler as a “bully”; meanwhile, other league figures are quoted in praise of Kapler’s intellect, perseverance, and humility. Regardless of his enigmatic profile, Kapler may face an uphill climb in winning over some Giants fans, as indicated by a separate Saturday column from the Chronicle’s Ann Killion, which amplifies the quotes of several San Francisco followers upset over the implications of Kapler’s hire (link).
- The player’s unions for the NFL and MLB have entered into a new partnership. Specifically, the NFLPA and MLBPA have come to an agreement with RedBird Capital Partners to form a company called OneTeam Partners LLC. This joint operation will manage the portrayals of respective league athletes, according to Miriam Gottfried, Andrew Beaton, and Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal (link). Each player union has typically negotiated the sale of player likeness and image to gaming, trading card, and other companies independently, but OneTeam Partners is presumably designed to leverage the combined forces of both unions. Individual players will still receive their standard annual payouts from such deals, but RedBird Capital will use union licensing funds to invest in additional, outside opportunities.
Jorge Soler Switches Agencies
Royals designated hitter Jorge Soler has made a change in representation. According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Soler has chosen to work with agent Casey Close of Excel Sports Management after previously working with ACES (link).
The timing of this change is certainly interesting. Soler’s current contractual status with Kansas City is unique, owing to the nine-year, $30MM accord he signed with the Cubs as a 20-year-old back in 2012. After logging a 2019 campaign that included a .265/.354/.569 slash and 48 home runs, Soler is “signed” for the 2020 season at just $4MM. However, the 27-year-old retains the right to opt out of that guaranteed salary and into MLB’s arbitration process this winter, as is the case with many Cuban defectors who signed Major League deals under the previous international free agency infrastructure. Given Soler’s counting stats alone, he’s almost a certain lock to opt for the arbitration route.
Though KC still holds Soler’s rights through 2021, it stands to reason that club exec Dayton Moore might kick the tires on a potential long-term extension with the slugger this winter. If the club aims to contend within the next two seasons, as they’ve stated, Soler and his potent bat (136 wRC+ in 2019) project to be indispensable to Kansas City’s currently tepid offensive attack (cumulative 84 wRC+ in 2019).
And it certainly seems like Moore might agree with that logic: yesterday, we heard that the club is interested in using its financial resources to secure the services of existing players into the future. Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, and Brad Keller could all be viable candidates for such an allocation, but Soler’s potentially imminent entry into arbitration could give the Royals added incentive toward wrapping an extension this winter. If both parties are open to such an idea, our own Steve Adams recently used Randal Grichuk‘s five-year, $52MM 2019 extension with the Blue Jays as a touchstone for possible negotiations between Royal officials and Soler reps.
Trea Turner Undergoes Surgery On Index Finger
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner underwent surgery this weekend on his index finger, according to an Instagram post from the player’s profile relayed by Todd Dybas of NBC Sports (link).
The shortstop originally suffered a fracture to the digit while trying to bunt in an Apr 2 game against the Phillies. Though the break required Turner to sit on the IL for roughly six weeks, the 26-year-old ultimately returned to action and gutted out another strong season. If Turner was hindered by only having full use of nine fingers, his .298/.353/.497 slash line over 569 PAs certainly indicated otherwise.
While the bad hand didn’t seem to dampen Turner’s output at the plate, his defense certainly may have suffered as a result; the NC State product logged a -10 DRS and -7 UZR at short in 2019 after recording slightly above-average fielding metrics in 2018. Still, Turner’s overall performance was good enough for 3.5 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR valuations on the year.
While D.C. may have to address the departure of key contributors like Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Howie Kendrick this offseason, the shortstop position projects to be a source of stability for the next several years. After avoiding his first trip through arbitration last year by agreeing to a $3.725MM salary figure with the Nats, Turner is projected to take home a $7.5MM arbitration award in his second trip through the system this offseason. Washington retains control of Turner through the 2022 season.
Orioles Notes: Organizational Changes, Elias, GM Meetings
With today marking exactly one year since the Orioles tabbed Mike Elias to succeed Dan Duquette as the franchise’s general manager, now seems like a natural time to check in on Elias’s tenure and evaluate the changes he has implemented thus far. Preaching a transformation of Baltimore’s scouting, player development, and analytics departments, it hasn’t taken long for Elias to get his fingerprints all over the internal structure of the Orioles. While the on-field product didn’t show much improvement from 2018 to 2019, sweeping changes have been made to the organization’s infrastructure in Elias’s first year running the show, which has by and large been spent “getting up to speed on all of the basics.” Joe Trezza of MLB.com has a comprehensive roundup of all the turnover, with analytics and international scouting representing two of the organization’s fastest-growing departments. This implementation of Elias’s philosophy marks a foundational step in the Orioles’ complete rebuild, which remains in its early stages. Ultimately, though, Elias’s success will be judged according to success on the diamond, meaning that he and his staff will need to demonstrate that they can acquire and develop the requisite talent to climb baseball’s ranks—no small task after consecutive 100-loss seasons.
- With last week’s GM meetings coming to a close, Elias spoke to MASN’s Roch Kubatko about just what happened during his stay in Arizona, as well as how he and his staff will navigate the offseason on the heels of a 54-108 season. Elias names middle infield, pitching, as well as depth at catcher and in the outfield as particular areas of focus in free agency and trades. Of course, one look at the O’s win-loss record suggests that those aren’t the only needs, and Elias’s Orioles are poised to take an active role in trade discussions as the team looks to bring aboard young talent all over the diamond. As Elias says, his team boasts a host of players that has steadily attracted interest since his arrival, though the team will be diligent in choosing when to move those players, if at all.
- In another change ahead of the 2020 season, the Orioles are opting for earlier start times to weekday night games before Memorial Day and after Labor Day, writes The Athletic’s Dan Connolly, moving first pitch up a half-hour earlier than past seasons. The scheduling alteration is motivated by the team’s desire to attract families and kids to games during the school year. As one can imagine, attendance has suffered as a result of the Orioles’ on-field struggles over the last two seasons, and the organization is looking for ways to remedy that. Connolly notes that the crosstown Nationals made a similar change in advance of the 2019 season.