Ben Zobrist Undecided On Future
Longtime utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist hasn’t decided whether he’ll continue his career in 2020, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic tweets. For now, though, Zobrist is working out in case he elects to sign a free-agent contract with a club.
The 38-year-old Zobrist has been among the majors’ most productive players over the past decade, but he’s now on the open market at what looks like an inopportune time. Zobrist was barely a factor for this year’s Cubs, as he missed a large portion of the season while dealing with a divorce. When he actually did take the field, the switch-hitting Zobrist batted a powerless .260/358/.313 with one home run over 176 plate appearances. But Zobrist’s typically high on-base percentage remained strong, and he collected almost as many walks (23) as strikeouts (24).
Thanks to Zobrist’s excellent track record and the positives he showed amid a rough 2019, there’s little doubt he’ll draw a decent amount of interest in free agency if he wishes to continue playing. That said, Zobrist has the disadvantage of being one of many flawed but capable free-agent second base types. Teams that don’t want to break the bank at the position could choose from Zobrist, Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Brock Holt, Howie Kendrick, Jason Kipnis and Jonathan Schoop, among others. Of course, unlike the majority of second basemen on this year’s market, Zobrist can play a respectable corner outfield. That should help Zobrist’s cause if he decides to continue his career next season.
Reds Interested In Marcell Ozuna
It’s been six years since the Reds have made the playoffs or even finished .500 in a season. President Dick Williams has made it no secret the team’s aiming to turn it around ASAP, though, which could set up for an active Reds winter. Improving a weak offense figures to be Cincinnati’s main focus over the coming months. The Reds’ outfield is one of multiple areas of concern, so it’s no surprise they seem to be looking to bolster that area of their roster. They’re among the teams interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna – arguably the top outfielder available – Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
For Ozuna to actually reach free agency, he’ll first have to reject the Cardinals’ $17.8MM qualifying offer by Thursday. That looks like a near certainty, however, and if it does happen and the Reds do sign Ozuna, they’d have to surrender their third-highest draft pick along with however much it could cost to win the bidding for him. MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $45MM contract for Ozuna, who has an extensive track record of quality production and, along with Nicholas Castellanos, looks like the best free-agent outfielder in this winter’s class. The 29-year-old Ozuna slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs, 12 steals and 2.6 fWAR across 549 plate appearances in 2019, during which he graded as a Statcast darling.
Whether the Reds get Ozuna or someone else, it’ll be an eye-opener if they don’t land at least one somewhat prominent outfielder this offseason. They’re stuck with a largely unproven group at the moment, as no one from the Nick Senzel–Aristides Aquino–Jesse Winker trio has established himself as a truly capable big league starter yet. Speculatively, if the Reds were to sign Ozuna, he could take over left field, leaving RF to a platoon consisting of the lefty-swinging Winker and the righty-hitting Aquino.
Rocco Baldelli, Mike Shildt Named Managers Of The Year
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Cardinals manager Mike Shildt have won Manager of the Year honors in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Tuesday evening. (As a reminder, award voting is conducted at the conclusion of the regular season but prior to postseason play.)
The 38-year-old Baldelli narrowly edged out Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. Baldelli and Boone both received 13 first-place votes, but Baldelli’s 13 second-place votes carried more clout than the nine second-place nods for Boone. Rays skipper Kevin Cash finished third on the ballot and landed three first-place votes. Oakland’s Bob Melvin, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and Cleveland’s Terry Francona came in fourth, fifth and sixth place, respectively. Hinch received the lone first-place vote that did not go to Baldelli, Boone or Cash (link to full breakdown of voting).
Baldelli secures Manager of the Year honors in his first season at the helm of a big league club. Hired to step into shoes that were most recently filled by longtime skipper Ron Gardenhire (2002-14) and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor (2015-18), Baldelli represented a significant departure from the organizational norm in Minnesota. His appointment as skipper marked a continuation of a trend toward modern, data-driven decision making in what had long been viewed as one of the game’s most traditional (and at times, insular) organizations.
Baldelli’s Twins shocked baseball by bashing a Major League-record 307 home runs and usurping the American League Central division throne. The “Bomba Squad” reignited the Twin Cities fanbase and brought numerous sellouts to Target Field late in the 2019 season as the Twins charged toward their first division championship since the stadium’s inaugural season back in 2010. Unfortunately, the postseason brought more of the same for the Twins, who were swept away in the ALDS by their postseason nemesis, the Yankees. Still, the 2019 campaign marked a clear return to relevance for the Twins, who are now widely expected to be active players on the offseason trade and free agent markets with an eye toward a deeper playoff push in 2020.
Shildt, 51, won an even tighter race to secure NL Manager of the Year honors. Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell actually took home more first-place votes (13 to 10), but Shildt’s 14 second-place votes (compared to Counsel’s six) gave him a total of 95 points to Counsell’s 88. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker finished third and received three first-place votes, while the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts was fourth place and received four first-place votes of his own. Washington’s Dave Martinez and Arizona’s Torey Lovullo finished fifth and sixth, respectively (full voting breakdown here).
Like Baldelli, Shildt was in his first full season as a big league manager, although he wasn’t a rookie, having taken over the reins of the Cardinals in July 2018 when Mike Matheny was dismissed. Shildt’s Cardinals looked like an NL Central afterthought early in the month of August, sitting at just 58-55 on Aug. 8. However, the Cardinals went on a tear to close out the season, playing at a 33-16 pace down the stretch to overtake both the Brewers and the Cubs en route to an NL Central Championship.
Tony La Russa Joins Angels As Senior Advisor
The Angels announced Tuesday that Hall of Famer Tony La Russa has joined the organization as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department.
“I’ve admired Tony for a very long time,” general manager Billy Eppler said in a press release announcing the move. “As our paths have crossed over the years, Tony and I discussed the potential of working together and we’re excited to finally get that opportunity. Adding his knowledge and experience will be an invaluable piece to the success and continued development of our baseball operations efforts both on and off the field.”
La Russa, 75, has spent nearly six decades working in professional baseball as a player, manager and front-office executive. He played parts of six seasons in the Majors from 1963-73 and, in 1979, embarked on a legendary managerial career that would eventually lead to his enshrinement in Cooperstown. A four-time Manager of the Year winner who has six League Championships and three World Series rings on his resume, La Russa managed the White Sox, Athletics and Cardinals to a combined 2728-2365 record across an incredible 33 seasons in the dugout.
He more recently had a less successful run as the Diamondbacks’ chief baseball officer, working alongside since-fired general player-turned-agent-turned-manager Dave Stewart in Arizona from 2014-17. La Russa resigned from that post after the D-backs dismissed Stewart and brought in current general manager Mike Hazen. He subsequently joined the Red Sox as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski prior to the 2018 season. He’d reportedly been expected to remain in the Boston organization but will instead now tackle a new opportunity with the Angels organization.
In his new role with the Angels, La Russa will “assist in all areas of baseball operations including Major League player evaluations and minor league development,” per the Angels’ announcement.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Marcell Ozuna Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer
Outfielder Marcell Ozuna intends to decline the $17.8MM qualifying offer and test the open market, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’s said to have received sufficient interest to believe he’ll top the QO in free agency, even with the drag of draft compensation.
Ozuna’s suitors will need to factor in some lost draft assets if they sign him; the precise hit depends upon the team. But with nearly a quarter of the MLB outfits showing some level of interest, per Heyman, it seems the circumstances will create enough bidding to get Ozuna a lengthier contract.
It’s still hard to tell just how things will shake out for a player who has some very strong attributes but also some clear demerits. And it doesn’t help that he’s entering a market filled almost to a bizarre level with roughly similar players. Fellow youthful corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig are also looking for new homes. None will be saddled with draft compensation.
While Ozuna has stung the ball repetitively in recent years, he has produced at merely above-average levels. It doesn’t take much to imagine Ozuna slugging again like he did in 2017; after all, he only just reached his 29th birthday today. But it’s also easy to view that standout campaign as a clear outlier, since he hasn’t otherwise produced consistently at anything close to a 143 wRC+ level. Plus, Ozuna’s once-strong defensive chops have taken a hit as he has lost speed and dealt with shoulder problems, though there’s still reason to hope he’ll be a capable defender for a few more years.
Here at MLBTR, we expect the market to treat Ozuna well — just perhaps not quite as well as once seemed possible. We guessed he’d take down a three-year, $45MM pact even after accounting for the draft hit, with teams such as the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals positioned as plausible contenders for his services.
Padres Intend To Focus On Trades Over Top Free Agents
12:16pm: In a follow-up piece today, Acee writes that the Friars expect to land at a payroll of $130MM to $140MM. Given the team’s existing commitments, that doesn’t leave space to tack on a top-shelf free agent.
Indeed, per Acee, the Friars simply “don’t see a way to fit another mega contract.” With Boras asking for $180MM or more for Strasburg, over a six-year term, the San Diego organization may be tapping out early. Acee does note that Zack Wheeler could still be a consideration, though he seems increasingly likely to top nine figures himself with widespread early interest.
8:16am: We know the Padres are going to do something to get better this winter — or, at least, that’s the strong indication emanating from the club — but it’s still to be seen what, when, and how GM A.J. Preller will strike. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune-Review describes the sense of anticipation in the San Diego organization, explaining that top-level free-agent pursuit and/or major trades involving highly regarded prospects are likely to be pursued vigorously in the coming weeks.
Unsurprisingly, Acee views the trade market as the “most likely way” for the Friars to press the go button. While the team has pounced on major free-agent signings and is expected to explore them again — local product Stephen Strasburg is a particularly enticing possibility — the team already has quite a lot of its payroll committed.
There are still some ways to change that situation. The organization could boost its spending now that it’s ready to win. It could also utilize some of its prospect base to help move unwanted contracts off the books, thus freeing salary space to buy other players. We broke down the many factors and possibilities in our recent preview of the Friars’ offseason.
Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result.
Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.”
That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers.
But does this mean that rival organizations can expect to command overwhelming early trade packages from the Padres? Preller says the club will stick to its guns. “We have specific value on each one of our players and a value on the guys we have a chance to trade for,” he said at the outset of the GM Meetings. If the numbers don’t match up, Preller says the club will be “patient.”
It’s an interesting mix of public statements from the San Diego brass. Preller’s “rock star” status has waxed and waned over the years; on occasion, he has delivered blockbusters. At other times, heavy rumors of big moves have simply petered out. This winter, there’s an argument for bold early action to get the jump on the market … but also for settling into the kind of plodding staring contest that has characterized the past two hot-stove seasons.
Whatever the process, one thing seems clear: when the season gets underway, Preller’s roster will need to deliver good old fashioned, actual MLB wins. The objective, per Fowler, is to “win a lot more games in 2020.” Otherwise, the San Diego organization could be forced into a much broader overhaul.
Rockies Sign Eric Stamets
The Rockies have announced a minor-league deal with infielder Eric Stamets. He’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Stamets, 28, was pressed into duty early in 2019 by the Indians but struggled mightily in brief MLB action. He went down on strikes in half of his 48 plate appearances and managed just a pair of hits. Stamets was ultimately dropped from the 40-man and allowed to depart at the end of the season.
The Rockies can’t expect much offense. Through over one thousand Triple-A plate appearances, Stamets carries a .230/.299/.379 slash line. But he’s obviously valued for his glovework at shortstop and ought to function as depth or perhaps challenge for a utility role in camp.
Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.
Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs
If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays
These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.
All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays
These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.
For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).
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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).
With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,886 people entered the contest. Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going. (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year? Click here).
1. Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)
2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)
3. Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)
4. Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)
5. Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)
6. Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)
7. Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)
8. Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)
10. Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)