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Padres, Robbie Erlin Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with southpaw Robbie Erlin by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.45MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That marks an $800K raise from last season’s $650K salary and checks in a fair bit north of Erlin’s projected $1.1MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). Erlin is repped by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

The 28-year-old Erlin was arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter and will go through the process once more next winter before becoming a free agent upon completion of the 2020 season. Erlin missed most of the 2016 season and the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery (hence the modest $650K salary in his first trip through the arb process), but he rebounded with a solid effort on the mound in 2018. The left-hander tossed 109 innings for the Friars and logged a 4.21 ERA, though his sterling 88-to-12 K/BB ratio and solid 46.7 percent ground-ball rate led fielding-independent metrics to view his work much more favorably (3.31 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA).

Erlin made 27 relief appearances and a dozen starts for the Padres last season, including a run of 10 starts to finish out his season. The Padres were cautious with those starts, never allowing him to reach 100 pitches and only allowing him to top five innings on one occasion, but he’ll likely open the season in the San Diego rotation with fewer restrictions now that he’s further removed from surgery.

The Padres have now avoided arbitration with Erlin, righty Bryan Mitchell and infielder Greg Garcia, leaving right-hander Kirby Yates, outfielder Travis Jankowski and catcher Austin Hedges as their three remaining cases to be resolved. With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures looming on Friday, there figures to be a veritable avalanche of settlements on Friday (in addition to a few early deals today and tomorrow). Readers can keep up with all of the filings and settlements using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Plawecki

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The Indians have agreed to a $1,137,500 deal with recently acquired backstop Kevin Plawecki, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). He had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.3MM.

Plawecki, 27, reached arb eligibility this year as a Super Two player. That means he’ll still be controllable for three more campaigns to come by the Cleveland organization.

The recent swap that delivered Plawecki to the Indians was designed to fill the void created when the club shipped out Yan Gomes at the outset of the offseason. In the aggregate, the team will save just under $6MM in its catching unit, which also features Roberto Perez and Eric Haase.

Plawecki is something of an offensive-oriented backstop, though he’s hardly a world-beating hitter. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has hit at a roughly league-average .225/.330/.379 rate. Defensively, he grades well at blocking pitches in the dirt but isn’t much loved by pitch-framing metrics.

Despite his limitations on the field, the one-time top prospect seems to be a nice value at his current price tag, which explains why he was targeted by the budget-conscious Indians. His earning power over the following three seasons will be driven by his playing time and performance, of course, so the Cleveland club will enjoy ample flexibility in the years to come.

As always, you can keep up to date with arbitration numbers with MLBTR’s Arbitration Database.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/19

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves in this post …

  • Righty Barry Enright has decided to hang up his spikes, though he’ll remain in uniform. The 32-year-old is joining the Diamondbacks in a coaching capacity. A former second-round draft pick of the Arizona organization, Enright threw 148 2/3 MLB innings between 2010 and 2013 but was not able to make it back to the game’s highest level thereafter. He enjoyed a productive, multi-year run in the Mexican League — an experience he spoke about on the MLBTR podcast — while also appearing with affiliated organizations in the past two seasons.

Taking Stock Of The Relief Market

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The flow of free agency isn’t what it used to be, but there has been a fair amount of movement at the top of the bullpen market. Of the 13 relievers who earned a spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, eight are already off the board. Further down the line, though, the hurlers have mostly been left waiting.

Let’s check in on where things stand with just over a month to go before the start of Spring Training:

Premium Relievers

There’s no doubting that Craig Kimbrel remains the premium name on the market, even if it’s still not clear which teams are truly pursuing him. It’s tough to ignore his historic excellence, even if he dealt with some consistency issues at an inopportune time in 2018. Just how far his asking price will have to drop remains to be seen.

Otherwise, Adam Ottavino is perhaps the only other reliever who not only possesses top-end stuff but deployed it to full effect in the just-completed campaign. He’d still fit on any number of staffs as a set-up man or closer. Ottavino has been discussed a fair bit all winter long and still seems to have strong demand.

Top Alternative Relievers

Teams that look to the next tier of arms still have some names to consider. It wasn’t long ago that Cody Allen seemed likely to be considered among the best-available hurlers, so he could be a bargain if he’s able to get back on track. Brad Brach has also established some real upside, though he wasn’t at his best last year. Despite miserable results all year long, Ryan Madson still delivers power stuff and impeccable K/BB numbers.

Results have been strong of late for Bud Norris, who has been more effective as a reliever. Much the same can be said of Adam Warren, another former swingman who has settled in as a steady pen piece. Sergio Romo is still tough to square up, though he has been a bit prone to the long ball when good contact is made.

Teams looking for upside may look to coax former closers Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland with promises of opportunities and incentives. David Phelps and AJ Ramos are among the interesting hurlers returning from injury.

On the left side, Justin Wilson is still among the more interesting and frustrating hurlers around. He still racks up the strikeouts, but his control issues remain a major concern. Oliver Perez was shockingly effective last year, racking up a 43:7 K/BB ratio and allowing only 17 hits and five earned runs in 32 1/3 innings, though that showing came at 37 years of age and on the heels of a few decidedly less productive campaigns. Tony Sipp is another older southpaw who had a strong bounceback season.

There are other notable names, too. Luis Avilan and Xavier Cedeno have been quietly effective of late. Dan Jennings has continued to generate good results despite underwhelming underlying stats. Zach Duke’s ERA lagged his peripherals, but he was probably in the best overall form of several veteran bounceback candidates (Jerry Blevins, Jake Diekman, Aaron Loup).

Other Names To Consider

John Axford, Tony Barnette, Matt Belisle, Joaquin Benoit, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Tyler Clippard, Tim Collins, Jorge De La Rosa, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Chris Hatcher, Greg Holland, Daniel Hudson, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, George Kontos, Brandon Maurer, Zach McAllister, Peter Moylan, Drew Storen, Nick Vincent, Alex Wilson, Blake Wood

Dombrowski: Red Sox “Have Not Anticipated Large Expenditure For A Closer”

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The Red Sox have already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency and stand to lose Craig Kimbrel in free agency as well if they don’t make a push to re-sign him in the coming weeks. However, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of retaining Kimbrel in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “Craig did a great job for us,” said Dombrowski. “He’s a Hall of Fame reliever, but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.”

Those words have to be cringe-worthy for Kimbrel and his representatives, as the seven-time All-Star reportedly entered free agency hoping to secure a six-year pact. As of late December, Kimbrel’s camp had dropped the price tag a bit but was still seeking a deal along the lines of the five-year pacts scored by Aroldis Chapman ($86MM) and Kenley Jansen ($80MM) two offseasons ago. As I noted at the time of that report, though, Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen — meaning he’s over a year older now than were the other two hurlers at the time they signed.

Looking beyond the impact of Dombrowski’s comments on Kimbrel, however, it’s perhaps alarming for Sox fans to hear the team’s top decision-maker suggest that there may not be a bullpen splash of note. Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are currently in line for work at the back of the Boston ’pen, and that trio can’t exactly fill fans or the team with confidence.

While Brasier looked sensational as an out-of-the-blue reclamation project in 2018 and Barnes has emerged as a quality setup piece over the past two seasons, the overall bullpen is lacking in experience. Brandon Workman has been solid over the past two seasons but in a smallish sample of 81 innings. Tyler Thornburg was tendered a contract after a pair of injury-ruined campaigns, while lefty Brian Johnson has been steady but unspectacular.

It should be noted, of course, that Dombrowski’s comments certainly don’t indicate that the Sox won’t be making bullpen additions of any kind. But a splash for Kimbrel seems unlikely in the wake of such a public declaration, and second-tier names like Adam Ottavino could also prove steep depending on Dombrowski’s definition of “large expenditure.” It’s worth noting that over at Roster Resource, Jason Martinez projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be at a hefty $239.7MM. Even accounting for a bit of wiggle room, that doesn’t leave Boston with much room if the team hopes to remain south of the top luxury tax penalization bracket.

Of course, there’s also no real reason that the Red Sox should need to remain below that threshold unless ownership makes the curious decision to mandate doing so. The Sox are entering their final season of control over Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts, and they could see J.D. Martinez opt out of his contract next winter as well. There’s every reason for Boston to put the pedal to the proverbial metal in this instance, even if doing so means taking a hit in the draft for a second consecutive season. (The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that exceeding the luxury threshold by more than $40MM will drop a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 spots in addition to a 45 percent luxury tax on any dollars over $246MM.)

Perhaps the Sox will find an intriguing option on the trade market or make a shrewd investment or two in the lower tiers of the free-agent market for relievers once the market dries up a bit, but it’s nevertheless puzzling that a team that is so heavily invested in every other area of the roster isn’t taking a more aggressive approach when striving to replace its two most prominent relievers. Of course, it’s also possible that Dombrowski’s comments not only reflect some real hesitation, but also represent an effort to shore up his leverage in negotiations with potential signees.

Rangers, Michael Tonkin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Michael Tonkin, according to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. The former Twins righty spent the 2018 season pitching for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. He’s represented by Wasserman.

Tonkin, 29, posted a 3.71 ERA and saved a dozen games in 51 innings out of the Fighters’ bullpen, though his K/BB numbers took a dramatic turn for the worse in his lone season overseas. Missing bats was always a strong point for the lanky, 6’7″ righty when pitching in the Twins’ system, as he averaged 10.6 K/9 in parts of four Triple-A seasons and 9.2 K/9 in parts of five MLB campaigns. In Japan, however, he managed just a 33-to-23 K/BB ratio in those 51 frames — 5.8 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings.

Throughout his five seasons with the Twins, Tonkin pitched to a 4.43 ERA over the life of 146 2/3 innings. Control wasn’t a significant issue for him (3.3 BB/9), but Tonkin proved to be increasingly homer-prone as his time in the Majors wore on. Ultimately, he averaged 1.54 homers per nine innings pitched in the Majors and saw his ERA spike north of 5.00 in each of his final two seasons.

Tonkin averages 94 mph on his heater and pairs that primarily with a slider — a combo that resulted in a solid 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate from 2016-17. His penchant for serving up long balls doesn’t bode well for any time spent at Globe Life Park in Arlington, however, so the Rangers will need to curb that issue in a way the Twins couldn’t. He’ll be part of a fairly wide-open bullpen competition in Texas behind Jose Leclerc, Jesse Chavez and Chris Martin.

Free Agent Rumors: Moustakas, Phillies, ChiSox, Dozier, Mariners

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A few notes on the free-agent market as a quiet night in baseball draws to a close…

  • Both the Phillies and White Sox are looking at Mike Moustakas as a fallback option in the event that Manny Machado signs elsewhere, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The 30-year-old Moustakas is a fairly logical fallback option for either club should it miss out on Machado, though Moustakas is a less concrete upgrade over either club’s top incumbent options. Morosi notes that the Phils will likely try to trade Maikel Franco in the event that either Machado or Moustakas signs in Philadelphia, and presumably the ChiSox would shift Yolmer Sanchez into a utility role should it land either free-agent target. Morosi lists the Padres as a potential landing spot for Moustakas as well, though with a preexisting logjam of corner options in San Diego, that fit seems more difficult to envision without some additional roster shuffling by general manager A.J. Preller.
  • The Mets are among the teams to “have talks regarding Brian Dozier lately,” tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred, though there’s no indication that the Mets plan to make a serious pursuit of Dozier. Both the Nationals and Rockies have been linked to Dozier over the past couple of weeks, and Heyman notes that the market for the longtime Twins slugger is beginning to pick up a bit of steam. Regarding the link between the Mets and Dozier, it’s worth pointing out that Mike Puma of the New York Post reported just yesterday that the Mets don’t have much more money to spend this offseason, although they’ve spent very little since GM Brodie Van Wagenen publicly stated that they “still have some real money to spend.”
  • Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto was clear about his plan to make some further additions on the free agent market following the signing of Yusei Kikuchi, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. “We’re likely to sign both Major and Minor League contracts,” said Dipoto. “I’d be shocked if we don’t sign at least one Major League reliever. And I’d be surprised — heavily surprised — if we didn’t sign one middle-of-the-field type stabilizer in the infield to provide protection and allow J.P. Crawford to transition at the appropriate pace.” There’s still a slew of free-agent relievers remaining on the open market (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and free agent shortstops are also in fairly abundant supply. Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria and Alcides Escobar are among the available infielders with strong defensive reputations.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/8/19

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves with this post …

  • The Nationals are in agreement on a minor league contract with corner infielder/outfielder Brandon Snyder, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The 32-year-old journeyman went 1-for-6 in a brief cup of coffee with the Rays this past season and is a career .240/.276/.455 hitter with nine homers, 14 doubles and a triple in 211 Major League plate appearances. Since debuting with the Orioles back in 2010, the former No. 13 overall pick has played first base, third base and both outfield corners at the MLB level.

Earlier Moves

  • Righty Rob Wooten is returning to the Reds on a minor-league deal, he announced. Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage first tweeted the news. Wooten will be back for a third season in the Cincinnati org, though he hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level since a three-season run with the Brewers. Wooten has only thrown 40 2/3 minor-league innings over the past two seasons while battling injuries.
  • Likewise, right-hander Aaron Northcraft has confirmed that he’s going to the Mariners on a minor-league arrangement. The 28-year-old is seeking to make a comeback after turning in a solid showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has allowed just three earned runs over 17 2/3 innings while compiling 17 strikeouts against nine walks. The former tenth-round pick never made it to the bigs in his first effort but will try to jump start his career this spring. He was previously shipped to the Padres along with Justin Upton in the 2014 blockbuster with the Braves.
  • The Indians have added southpaw Hector Hernandez on a minors pact, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Soon to turn 28, Hernandez is another former tenth-round draft choice who hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level. Indeed, he only briefly touched Triple-A before dropping out of affiliated ball following the 2016 season. Still, it seems he caught someone’s eye with his winter efforts in his native Puerto Rico.

Reds, Odrisamer Despaigne Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, as first reported by HalosHeaven’s Rahul Setty (Twitter link). Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (also via Twitter), the contract comes with an $875K base salary in the event that the righty cracks the MLB roster in Cincinnati. Despaigne is represented Movement Management Group.

Despaigne, 32 in April, split the 2018 season between the Marlins and Angels, struggling to a 6.69 ERA with a 35-to-19 K/BB ratio in 39 innings of work. He finished out the 2018 campaign on the Halos’ active roster but was outrighted and elected free agency early in the offseason.

The journeyman right-hander had a strong showing as a rookie with the Padres back in 2014 and enjoyed solid results with the Marlins in ’17, but Despaigne has generally been inconsistent at the big league level. Through 349 2/3 Major League innings, the Cuban-born righty has a 4.94 ERA with 5.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate.

Despaigne has experience pitching both as a starter and a reliever, and he’s logged a 4.11 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 in 225 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He’ll serve as a depth addition for the Reds but isn’t likely to be counted on early in the season with a slew of arms on the depth chart ahead of him.

Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani are penciled into the first four spots in the Reds’ rotation, while the bullpen will feature right-handers Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and left-hander Amir Garrett, at the very least. The Cincinnati organization also has no shortage of 40-man options who’ll compete for those final few spots on the staff, including Tyler Mahle, Robert Stephenson, Matt Wisler, Brandon Finnegan, Wandy Peralta, Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Lucas Sims and Matthew Bowman, among others. Of that bunch, Stephenson and Wisler are out of minor league options.

CC Sabathia Cleared To Resume Baseball Activities

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Veteran lefty CC Sabathia gave Yankees fans some cause for concern when he underwent an angioplasty last month, but the team announced today that followup exams of Sabathia went well. Per the Yankees’ release, Sabathia “has now been cleared to begin working out, which will include baseball activities.”

Sabathia, 38, re-signed with the Yankees on a one-year, $8MM contract early in the offseason, agreeing to return to the Bronx for what will be the final season of his illustrious career. The prognosis at the time of his procedure was reportedly “excellent,” and the quick clearance for Sabathia to resume working out and performing baseball activities speaks to that. In all likelihood, then, the left-hander should be up to speed for Spring Training and on schedule for the Opening Day roster.

Recently, the bit of uncertainty surrounding Sabathia was cited by Yankees general manager Brian Cashman as a consideration as he mulls trade offers for right-hander Sonny Gray. Cashman told reporters over the weekend that Sabathia’s situation “has given us pause,” suggesting that he’s at least considered holding Gray into the season. Of course, the Yankees have plenty of other depth options behind Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ even if Gray is traded. Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams and Luis Cessa all started games for the Yankees last season, and lefty Jordan Montgomery could return from Tommy John surgery at some point late in the summer.

Regardless of its impact on any future Yankees maneuverings, the Sabathia update is a welcome one for the Yankees. While the former AL Cy Young winner clearly isn’t the ace he was at his peak, Sabathia has nonetheless recorded three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball with the Yankees. From 2016-18, he pitched to a 3.76 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 481 1/3 innings — with last year’s 3.65 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 all being his best marks in that three-year stretch.

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