National League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline
Earlier today, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd ran down a number of currently murky injury situations in the American League that could impact teams’ thinking as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. The National League, of course, offers a similarly unsettled number of injury issues which, depending on the progress of the players in questions, could spur teams to seek a replacement or stand pat and hold out for internal reinforcements. We’re not looking at definitive holes that stem from players known to be out for the season (e.g. Adam Eaton‘s ACL tear), but rather at ongoing injury issues that could have either positive developments or setbacks/a lack of forward movement in the next two and a half weeks, thus directly impacting a team’s strategy.
Arodys Vizcaino, Braves: Teams in need of relief help would no doubt like to consider the high-powered Vizcaino, potentially giving Atlanta an interesting chip. But he’s now shelved with a finger issue that will keep him out for an indeterminate length of time. It remains to be seen whether the righty will be able to show he’s back to health before the month is out. If not, his cheap price tag makes it unlikely that he’ll clear waivers in August, further casting doubt on the possibility of a trade.
Trea Turner, Jayson Werth & Michael Taylor, Nationals: While the Nats feel comfortable with their position in the standings, and don’t really need to prioritize performance down the home stretch so much as in the postseason, they’ll remain mindful of the health problems impacting a notable portion of the roster. While the bullpen obviously remains the focus (and has a few open injury issues of its own), there are some significant dings and dents on the position-player side. Turner’s injury is the most concerning, though the club likely won’t learn much before the deadline and isn’t likely to add an impact shortstop regardless. Werth and Taylor, though, will need to be watched closely to see how they are progressing. It’s a bit difficult to see the Nats going after a major bat, though perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely. More likely, the team could consider pursuing a bench player who’d help cover for these injuries while also improving the reserve unit once the team is back to full health (so much as is possible with Adam Eaton not expected to return this year).
Neil Walker, Mets: While the Mets are anxiously awaiting the returns of starters such as Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey, neither is likely to be dealt anyhow. And, regardless of how quickly some of those names make it back to the active roster, the Mets’ deadline course seems largely plotted; over the next couple of weeks (and into August), New York figures to sell off some short-term veterans like Walker, who is a free agent at season’s end. He has only just begun moving towards a rehab assignment, so a return in time for a deadline deal seems unlikely. But Walker would still be an obvious August trade candidate given his hefty salary.
Cesar Hernandez & Howie Kendrick, Phillies: The question here is just when Hernandez and Kendrick can rejoin the team. Kendrick is a virtual lock to be traded. He’s a free agent at season’s end that has already turned down a qualifying offer once, thus making him ineligible to receive one in 2017 (and the Phils likely wouldn’t offer one anyhow). Hernandez certainly doesn’t need to be moved, as he’s controlled for three seasons beyond the current campaign. However, he’s a quietly productive player, and if a team expressed interest in picking up some controllable infield help, the Phils surely wouldn’t hesitate to bring in some more minor league talent while also paving a path for top prospect Scott Kingery to make his MLB debut.
Edinson Volquez & Brad Ziegler, Marlins: Volquez is likely to be back before the deadline, and given the paucity of starters on the market, he could be appealing to a team in need of rotation stability. His overall numbers are hardly dominant, but he’s turned in a 3.66 ERA in his past nine starts. Ziegler’s status is much cloudier, and his lack of results makes his two-year, $18MM pact a tough one to move anyhow.
Chase Anderson, Brewers: Milwaukee seems likely to be in the market for rotation help even if Anderson progresses at a faster-than-expected pace. But, on the flip side, if he appears to slow to progress from his oblique strain, the Brewers’ rotation search would only be hastened and, speculatively speaking, could expand to include multiple arms.
Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey & Brett Anderson, Cubs: The Cubs figure to explore the market for rotation help regardless of this trio’s progress, given the steps back that each member of their rotation has taken following last year’s deep postseason run. Hendricks has already been sent out on a minor league rehab assignment and could return from the disabled list as soon as this weekend, per Gordon Wittenymyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he’s already been on the shelf longer than anticipated after having his target date pushed back.
Zach Duke & Kevin Siegrist, Cardinals: Duke hasn’t pitched in the Majors this year, as he’s spent the entire 2017 campaign rehabbing from surgery last October. Siegrist, meanwhile, has an ominous-sounding spinal sprain but is also out on a minor league rehab assignment at the moment. Getting one or both back healthy would be a boost to the Cardinals’ relief corps, but a lack of progress or any setbacks would give the team another potential area of focus in trades.
Yangervis Solarte, Padres: It’s pretty straightforward. Solarte could be a nice infield utility type for a contender, particularly one looking for help at third base. But he’s currently out with an oblique injury. If he’s healthy, he’ll be a plausible chip; if not, the Pads will hold onto his affordable control rights and reconsider after the season.
Eduardo Nunez, Giants: Among the most obvious trade pieces in all of baseball, Nunez is nearing a return from a hamstring strain. Assuming all goes well, the Giants will have little reason not to get something back for a player they targeted last summer.
Rubby De La Rosa & J.J. Hoover, Diamondbacks: While Arizona may not be able to keep pace in the NL West, and may not really be inclined to spend big to prop up its chances in 2017, it’ll surely at least look into some upgrades. Like many teams, the bullpen could stand to add a few pieces, which could make all the difference in a short series (the Wild Card play-in or NLDS). But just how great is the need? If these two hurlers are at full speed, perhaps the D-Backs can hang onto their prospect capital or deploy it elsewhere. (Honorable mention: Yasmany Tomas.)
Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: This situation is a bit tricky and is utterly speculative, but the respected veteran has been rather forthcoming about his present limitations. While the Dodgers increasingly look to be a force, no team is perfect, and this one may have some interesting opportunities to add offense — in addition to looking into pitching, as expected — depending upon A-Gon’s status. Rookie extraordinaire Cody Bellinger could bump to the outfield in favor of a new first baseman, or the team could pursue a more flexible piece that would allow it yet more options to mix and match, if it seems that Gonzalez won’t be occupying a spot down the stretch and (in particular) into the postseason.
Brian Sabean Discusses Giants’ Deadline Plans
With the Giants enduring their roughest season in recent memory, executive VP of baseball operations Brian Sabean discussed the team’s deadline plans in an interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group. Though a rebuild isn’t being contemplated, Sabean did acknowledge a need to “be lot more open minded to [possibly trading] more names than we have been in the past.”
To be sure, San Francisco will keep its inner core players. Sabean said it’s reasonable to presume, as has been suggested, that the team won’t be interested in entertaining offers for Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Crawford. (“Those three animals are divine,” he said.)
Otherwise, though, the veteran executive suggested that the club will at least consider moves involving the remainder of the roster. “I think needless to say, we’re open for business,” said Sabean, who also said that it’s “embarrassing” for the team to be performing so poorly while carrying such a large payroll.
While salary considerations will obviously play a role, it doesn’t seem as if the Giants are looking to pare down their future commitments above all else. Baggarly explains that the sense is the organization will prioritize the acquisition of near-MLB talent over far-off youngsters; “unless they get those kinds of players in return,” he writes, “they are not eager to pay down money just to get rid of core pieces” — a reference not to the holy trinity cited above, but to the club’s other veteran regulars.
That stance certainly could complicate matters. After all, as the club’s record would suggest, not many of the team’s expensive veterans are really playing up to their salaries. And, as ever, legitimate prospects who are ready to contribute at the major league level are generally harder to come by than those who are a few years off.
All said, the organization remains in a tricky spot with the deadline closing in. Among the costly veterans that aren’t considered untouchable, perhaps only Brandon Belt clearly brings surplus value when weighing his future salary guarantees. Second baseman Joe Panik would surely be of interest to rivals, but he’s also just the sort of sturdy, affordable option the Giants need to retain.
Those sorts of difficult tradeoffs are just as present in the pitching staff. Bumgarner is set to return, which will finally bump struggling veteran Matt Cain out of the rotation, as a report from NBC Sports Bay Area indicates. But the latter has not thrown well enough to be of real interest at the deadline. Plenty of teams would take a shot on Matt Moore, but would likely only do so for pennies on the conceptual dollar the Giants gave to get him last summer. While Jeff Samardzija has sparkling peripherals, his ERA remains inflated and the Giants no doubt envision him on their staff next year. Indeed, Sabean even says that he’d like to see Johnny Cueto pitching for San Francisco next year; his trade status is clouded by a pending opt-out clause.
More broadly, Sabean said “there’s a lot of soul searching going on” — particularly given that the team’s struggles stretch back into the second half of the 2016 season. Charting a path forward will obviously involve the upper reaches of the organization. While GM Bobby Evans has control of the day to day baseball ops decisionmaking process, Sabean indicated that he remains “responsible for the quality control throughout the organization” and will still “be involved in how we map this out.”
Taking Inventory: Toronto Blue Jays
This is the 13th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series.
The non-waiver trade deadline is just 19 days away, and over the coming weeks there will be several teams that at one point looked to be fringe contenders but are now gravitating toward marketing certain veteran assets. One such club is the Blue Jays, who are reportedly open to offers on their short-term veterans. There’s an important distinction to make between that and operating as a full-on seller; there’s yet to be any serious indication that the Jays are interested in a lengthy rebuild. In fact, Toronto has reported interest in acquiring Dee Gordon and has reportedly scouted Jose Quintana.
It’s easy to get caught up in the dichotomy of “buyers” versus “sellers,” but the lines are nowhere near so black and white for most clubs. The Jays could look to move some expensive assets right now — the veterans they’re reportedly open to moving are relatively well compensated and have been injured and/or haven’t performed up to standard — while also adding some longer-term pieces for a reloaded run in 2018 and beyond. That said, here’s a look at what they have to offer, both in terms of short-term pieces and higher-impact, long-term pieces (if a larger tear-down is eventually settled upon).
[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart | Toronto Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]
Rentals
Marco Estrada, RHP (starter) | Salary: $14MM (approx. $6.27MM remaining)
The most interesting name among the Blue Jays’ rentals, Estrada was in the midst of a brilliant season before an awful month of June and a clunker in early July torpedoed his ERA. That said, the righty still has intriguing peripherals, with 9.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a fastball that’s noticeably harder than it was in 2016 (though still sits at an average of just 90.1 mph). Estrada’s chase rate and swinging-strike rate are both the second-best of his career as well. Estrada has a history of back issues, but if a team believes him to be fully healthy and thinks June was largely an aberration, he could be a significant upgrade to a big league rotation for two months or so.
Francisco Liriano, LHP (starter) | $13MM ($5.83MM)
Consistency was always an issue for Liriano before he signed with the Pirates, but his previous control issues came back to haunt him in Pittsburgh last year, prompting a trade to Toronto. He was sensational down the stretch in 2016, but the Jays have had the bad version of Liriano for much of the current season. The 33-year-old’s strikeout and walk rates have both raced in the opposite direction of last year’s excellent post-trade marks, and his 44.9 percent grounder rate is his worst since 2012. It’s cliche to call Liriano “mercurial” or “enigmatic” at this point, but the labels fit. If a pitching-needy team feels like it can solve Liriano, the cost of acquisition won’t be too high.
Jose Bautista, OF/DH | $18.5MM ($8.57MM)
After a terrible April, the “Joey Bats” of old emerged in May — a month during which Bautista was one of the very best hitters on the planet. He followed that up with another terrible month in June, though things have started to even out a bit more recently. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Bautista in 2017, but the strikeouts are up and the power is down; the result to this point is a .234/.349/.400 slash that wRC+ and OPS+ grade as roughly league average. Considering his lack of defensive value, that line won’t cut it. The Jays could market him this summer, but it’ll be tough to get much in return, even if they eat some salary.
Joe Smith, RHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)
Smith hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to shoulder inflammation, but he’s most of the way through a minor league rehab stint and has been good when healthy. He’s sporting a 3.41 ERA with considerably better peripherals (13.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 46.5 percent ground-ball rate) through 31 2/3 frames. Assuming he gets healthy, Smith could be an affordable bullpen piece that’ll draw plenty of interest.
J.P. Howell, LHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)
Howell (shoulder soreness) is also on the disabled list and partway through a minor league rehab stint, though his season has been much different than that of Smith. The 34-year-old has been limited to just 8 2/3 innings this year because of said shoulder troubles, during which he’s posted an 8.31 ERA and walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (five). A healthy Howell is a nice bullpen piece, but teams aren’t going to give up much to get him given this year’s injuries.
Darwin Barney, 2B/SS | $2.8875MM ($1.29MM)
The 31-year-old Barney can play both middle infield positions and has a strong defensive reputation, but his bat has been nonexistent in 2017. Through 168 PAs, he’s hitting .231/.277/.295. He was a valuable bench piece in Toronto as recently as 2016, though, so a team could speculatively pick him up on the cheap and hope for a bit more with the bat.
Controlled Through 2018
Josh Donaldson, 3B | $11.65MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018
To be as clear and up-front as possible, there’s been no serious suggestion that the Jays are willing to even entertain offers on the 2015 American League MVP. Donaldson missed about six weeks of the season due to a calf injury (which played a huge role in the team’s poor first half) but has been productive, albeit not quite his dominant self when healthy. Through 193 PAs, he’s slashing .261/.383/.484 with nine homers and nine doubles. The Blue Jays won’t move Donaldson unless they’re seriously considering at least a medium-scale rebuild, as moving him would almost immediately signal a white flag of sorts for the 2018 season. If Donaldson is made available (a big “if”), he’d require an enormous package of talent featuring multiple top prospects and/or MLB-ready commodities.
J.A. Happ, LHP (starter) | $13MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018
Moving Happ wouldn’t quite be the 2018 concession that a Donaldson trade would represent, but he’d still require a notable package of young talent to acquire. After reinventing himself following a trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh in 2015, Happ has maintained much of that newfound excellent in his second go-around with the Jays. Elbow inflammation cost him a couple of months of the 2017 season, but he’s been strong since returning from the disabled list. Dating back to Opening Day 2016, Happ boasts a 3.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 256 innings. He’s a solid and fairly priced mid-rotation arm, meaning he won’t come cheaply in a trade.
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF/2B | $6.25MM in 2017, $6.25MM in 2018
Pearce hasn’t hit nearly as well as he did with the Orioles in 2014 or the Rays in 2016. His .259/.320/.430 slash is solid enough, and he’s still a power threat against lefties that can play multiple positions on the field. But he, too, has spent time on the DL this season, and his salary isn’t necessarily cheap if he can’t rediscover some of his 2014 or 2016 form at the dish.
Aaron Loup, LHP (reliever) | $1.125MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2018
Loup can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate has soared in 2017 while lefties have clobbered him. I doubt he’s going to be anyone’s Plan A or B, but he could still change hands on deadline day even if the Jays aren’t punting on the 2018 season. He’s a non-tender candidate after the year but has a decent track record against lefty batters.
Longer-Term Assets
Justin Smoak, 1B | $4.125MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018 (plus $6MM club option/$250K buyout for 2019)
The Yonder Alonso of the East, Smoak has gone from busted prospect to All-Star in short order thanks to a revamped swing plane and, as he tells it, some offseason work with a sports psychologist. The contract is so affordable that even if he takes a bit of a step back, he now looks like a bargain. This time last year, most were curious as to why the Jays offered him a two-year extension. Now, any team looking for help at first base or DH — and there admittedly aren’t many — would love to buy into his new approach. The lack of a market and his highly affordable contract make a deal seem unlikely, though.
Jeff Beliveau, LHP (reliever) | Not arbitration-eligible until 2018-19 offseason
Beliveau has proven to be a nice find on a minor league deal for the Jays, having tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in Triple-A prior to a big league promotion. It’s been more of the same through his first 14 1/3 innings back in the Majors; he’s worked to a 3.14 ERA with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio. The sample of work is pretty small, and Beliveau was out of the Majors for most of two seasons due to 2015 surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The value here isn’t huge, but a team looking for some left-handed relief help might kick the tires.
Marcus Stroman, RHP (starter) | $3.4MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2020 (Super Two)
Speaking of unlikely, a Stroman trade would only happen if the Jays elected to completely tear things down. I don’t expect that to happen, but as a pitcher who has already reached arbitration and is going to make a nice raise on an already decent salary in arbitration, Stroman would be the one long-term rotation piece I could see moving in that scenario. Again, though, it’s not likely.
Large Contracts
- Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH | $10MM in 2017, $11MM in 2018, $12MM in 2019
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS | $20MM annually 2017-19, $14MM in 2020 (plus $15MM club option/$4MM buyout for 2021)
- Russell Martin, C | $20MM annually 2017-19
Morales and Tulowitzki aren’t hitting well enough for anyone to really consider taking on either of those deals in a trade, though the Jays wouldn’t mind shedding the cash. Martin’s offense is down somewhat in 2017, but he’s still been a valuable backstop, even if he’s slightly overpaid. That said, he’ll turn 35 this winter with $40MM on the books beyond the current campaign, and there aren’t too many clubs lining up to acquire a catcher in the first place.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: July 12, 2017
AL Notes: Blue Jays, Panda, Verlander, Tigers, Smoak
The Blue Jays have let teams around the league know that they’re open to offers on rental players like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Joe Smith and J.P. Howell, according to Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. The Jays are less open but not entirely closed off to the idea of moving lefty J.A. Happ and first baseman/outfielder Steve Pearce, each of whom is affordably signed through the 2018 season, he adds. Toronto president Mark Shapiro recently suggested that the Jays still have enough pure talent to contend, though he also acknowledged that the club’s poor first half would require them to be open-minded. Certainly, it doesn’t seem as though the Jays are looking to tear things down entirely, and given their recent links to players like Dee Gordon, it’s possible that Toronto is even open to shedding short-term salary but still amassing some long-term assets to help beyond 2017. The 33-year-old Liriano, after all, has struggled all season, while Estrada limped into the All-Star break and the two relievers mentioned are presently on the disabled list.
More from the American League…
- There’s simply no place for Pablo Sandoval on the Red Sox‘ roster, writes WEEI’s John Tomase. The team still has a few days to make a decision on Sandoval, as his rehab window from an eyebrow-raising DL placement due to an ear infection doesn’t expire until Monday. However, Tomase argues that the writing has been on the wall from the moment the Sox placed Sandoval on the DL this past time. Deven Marrero and Tzu-Wei Lin are sound defensively, and even if neither can hit all that much, they’re both likely to outproduce Sandoval until Rafael Devers is ready or until president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski enlists some outside help on the trade market. Tomase notes that for all of his struggles in Boston, Sandoval has put in the effort to try to make the arrangement work. But, Tomase surmises, the team simply cannot exhibit any more patience at this point after giving Sandoval multiple chances to turn his career around.
- MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Tigers are not actively shopping right-hander Justin Verlander, though he adds that a source says the team could be “talked into moving him” before the non-waiver deadline. That’s not all that surprising to hear, as Verlander is in the midst of one of his worst seasons and is owed nearly $70MM between now and the conclusion of the 2019 season. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters. While Verlander has been popular on the rumor circuit due to his name value, he doesn’t stand out as a realistic trade candidate given that contract, no-trade protection, his results and the Tigers’ likely desire to receive quality prospects in return.
- Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus is fully aware of the rumors surrounding his club but hopes that the front office doesn’t trade away any big league talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, writes Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. Ausmus believes the Tigers’ roster is markedly better than its record and is optimistic of a second-half turnaround. “Offensively, I do think part of the story is — I know how it sounds and I hate to say it — we’ve hit a lot of balls hard, significantly more than anyone else, that ended up being outs,” said Ausmus. “That can change games if a potential big hit becomes an out. We haven’t hit the ball as poorly as our numbers say.” Per Woodbery, Ausmus made an appeal to owner Chris Ilitch, though the manager concedes that it’s possible that some players will be moved.
- Blue Jays first baseman spoke to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi about his remarkable turnaround in 2017. Smoak tells Davidi that at the suggestion of GM Ross Atkins, he sat down with a sports psychologist for the first time this offseason and developed a revamped mental approach to the game to go along with modifications to his swing path that were made with hitting coach Brook Jacoby. Smoak adds that he’s actually cut down on his swing at the plate, which has led to more power. “When you would see me coil, or you’d see the whole number on the back of my jersey, it was because I’m trying to hit the ball 500 feet,” he explains. “I’m big enough and I’m strong enough that if I square it up it’s going to have a chance. You don’t have to hit it 400 feet every time, they can barely go out, too.” The more reserved approach at the dish has helped him to recognize breaking balls more effectively, which Davidi explains is readily apparent in his plate discipline metrics. I’d highly recommend checking out the column in full, as it’s a great look at the transformation that Smoak has undergone.
Trade Chatter: Rangers, Rockies, Ramos, Mariners, Alonso, Cards
With 19 days until the non-waiver trade deadline, the Rangers are telling other clubs that they plan to hold, at the very least, and may yet act as buyers on the trade market, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Rangers, of course, are all but finished in the American League West as the Astros run away with the division. However, despite a 43-45 record, Texas is just three games back in the American League Wild Card race. Morosi notes that the defending AL West champs open the season’s second half with a 10-game road trip that will likely prove pivotal in the Rangers’ determination of a course of action prior to the deadline.
More trade talk from around the game…
- The Rockies are eyeing relief help as the deadline approaches, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag column. One name that Saunders has heard connected to the Rox is Marlins closer AJ Ramos. The Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer reported recently that the Fish are scouting a number of rival farm systems in preparation to trade some veteran assets before the deadline, specifically naming the Rockies as a system of interest. It seems unlikely that Ramos would usurp Greg Holland as manager Bud Black’s closer, but he’d give the Rox an arm with huge strikeout potential that can be controlled through next season. And, with Holland all but certain to turn down his player option (barring an injury), Ramos would give the Rockies an option in the ninth inning in 2018. Ramos is earning $6.55MM this year and is controllable for one more season via arbitration.
- Morosi also reports that the Mariners would like to add some pitching at this year’s trade deadline, but they’re not keen on adding any rentals (Twitter links). Seattle finished the first half poorly, and the notion of sacrificing prospects for a two-month rental and a chance at a one-game playoff is off-putting to the majority of teams around the league. Even if the Mariners’ slide continues, Morosi adds that the team has no plans to move slugger Nelson Cruz, who even at 37 years of age continues to be among the game’s most productive bats. Cruz is hitting .292/.372/.520 and is earning $14.25MM this year and next — the final two seasons of a four-year, $57MM pact inked prior to the 2015 campaign.
- The Athletics have made it known to other teams that first baseman Yonder Alonso is available in trades “right now,” writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Alonso’s availability isn’t exactly a new development, as he’s been among the most oft-speculated and reported trade candidates for most of the season’s first half. However, the A’s and Alonso’s camp were also said to be exploring talk of a possible extension. While Olney doesn’t mention the extension possibility one way or another, his newest report certainly doesn’t do much to inspire confidence that the two sides will agree to a deal. In addition to the oft-suggested Yankees fit, Olney speculatively lists the Royals as a possibility.
- The Cardinals are still looking into adding a middle-of-the-order bat and will continue to do so up through the deadline, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote in a recent chat with readers. The Cards expect that type of pursuit to perhaps run right up to the deadline, however. Goold notes that he’s been told recently that St. Louis isn’t keen on adding rental bats (e.g. J.D. Martinez) but could rethink that mentality and take a late shot at a rental if their pursuits of longer-term assets don’t prove fruitful over the next couple of weeks.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/12/17
Here are Wednesday’s minor moves from around the league…
- Catcher Ryan Lavarnway has cleared waivers and been outrighted to the Athletics‘ Triple-A affiliate, as first noted on the team’s transaction page at MLB.com. The 29-year-old Lavarnway played in just one game with Oakland in his recent call-up, though he’s spent parts of six seasons in the Majors. In 409 big league plate appearances, the former Red Sox farmhand is a .197/.257/.315 hitter. He carries a considerably better Triple-A track record and has hit at a .274/.362/.378 clip through 232 PAs with Oakland’s Nashville affiliate in 2017.
American League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline
With the deadline approaching quickly, teams will be forced to make tough decisions. Health issues will play a large role in complicating those decisions. In some cases, when a player is known to be out for the entire season, acting decisively to find a replacement makes clear sense. But there are plenty of unresolved health issues throughout the game that will likely have significant impacts on a team’s approach to the deadline. Teams will be gathering information on internal players and on possible targets; here are a few players whose uncertain health status will be watched closely:
Carson Smith & Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: While Pablo Sandoval is nominally on the DL, and perhaps still factors into the team’s needs at third base, the real action is in the pitching staff. Smith could yet represent a significant pen arm, but it’s still unclear how much (if at all) he’ll contribute. And while Rodriguez has been excellent, and seems slated to return shortly from the DL, his recurring knee problems could become a major near-term concern.
Matt Andriese, Rays: There have been plenty of suggestions that the Rays could consider dealing a starter — particularly, pending free agent Alex Cobb — even if they’re in contention. But that’d be much harder to do if Andriese isn’t showing clear signs of returning to full health. Even if he is, the club could elect to stand pat, perhaps deciding to use the abundance of starting options to bolster the relief corps rather than spending young talent to get a new bullpen arm.
Greg Bird & Tyler Austin, Yankees: Perhaps the ship has sailed on the Yanks fully relying on Bird in the second half. After all, he struggled when he was available and is dealing with an ankle injury that does not appear to come with a straightforward solution. And it’s unclear just how much stock the Yankees would put in Austin even if he were at full health. Still, the injury signals coming from these two over the next few weeks could impact the Bronx Bombers’ deadline plans, particularly since the organization is clearly looking to avoid parting with significant prospects unless strictly necessary.
J.J. Hardy, Orioles: Chris Davis is on the shelf as well, though the team’s glut of corner options allows them to weather that storm fairly well. It’s another story with Hardy, who is still one to three weeks from even resuming baseball activities. The Orioles have been in a free fall since mid-May, but GM Dan Duquette was maintaining a buyer’s outlook as recently as late June, but more recent suggestions indicated that the team is presently on the fence. If the O’s perform well in the first two weeks coming out of the break, Hardy’s absence creates a potential area of need.
Danny Salazar, Indians: Shoulder issues have significantly limited the talented right-hander, who is working back towards the majors at present. If he can return to full health, Salazar could conceivably get back to providing quality innings from the rotation — or, at least, the bullpen. If not, the team’s possible pitching needs will be all the more clear.
Hector Santiago, Twins: With a somewhat mysterious and lingering back issue, the southpaw is a question mark for Minnesota in the second half. The team is shopping for young starters regardless, but the urgency of that effort — if not also the possibility of considering at least a modest rental investment — could hinge in part upon Santiago’s progress.
Nate Karns, Royals: Kansas City is reportedly looking to augment the back of its rotation, which is likely in no small part due to the fact that the return of Karns is looking less and less likely. The last update on Karns suggested that thoracic outlet surgery may very well be in his future. If he is indeed lost for the season, as lefty Matt Strahm recently was, the Royals’ need to snag a back-of-the-rotation rental becomes more acute.
Dallas Keuchel & Collin McHugh, Astros: The AL West crown is already nearly in hand for Houston, but that doesn’t mean the team is without its needs. The ‘Stros have the luxury of looking ahead to the postseason, but still clearly would like to add to the top of the rotation. So long as Keuchel and McHugh are moving back toward the major league mound, the addition of a starter will remain classified as a strong want. But if either (particularly Keuchel) show any worrying signs, the organization will surely feel a much greater urgency to add an arm that can help drive the team through the postseason.
Matt Shoemaker, Angels: Obviously, Mike Trout is of even greater concern. But all indications are that he’s good to go beginning this Friday. For the Angels, deciding whether it’s worth adding to the roster at the deadline could hinge more upon the health of the rotation. Shoemaker will get checked out before hopefully beginning a throwing program within the week; whether he is progressing toward a return will be important to the Halos’ plans. (Honorable mention: Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, who are on longer-fuse rehab paths.)
Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners: It’s not clear at this point whether Seattle can expect much at all from the veteran down the stretch. Seattle is already without Drew Smyly for the year due to Tommy John surgery. If Iwakuma can’t begin to make his way back from shoulder problems before the deadline –and if the team can hang in the Wild Card hunt over the next two weeks — then pursuit of a starter would make all the more sense.
Keone Kela & Jake Diekman, Rangers: The Texas pen has produced plenty of hand-wringing this year. Ironically, perhaps, the first crack seemed to form with Kela’s stunning demotion to start the year, owing to behavioral issues. But he has been effective since making his way back, pitching his way into consideration for the closer’s role that has been vacated by Sam Dyson and Matt Bush. Now, however, Kela is dealing with shoulder soreness; his status could help dictate the team’s needs over the coming weeks. Diekman is even more of a question mark after surgery to treat ulcerative colits cost him the entire first half. He’s throwing from flat ground as of early July, and a return to the mound would obviously be a potential boon for the Texas relief corps. But, they also can’t fully know how much to expect from him in the second half given the unique nature of his medical status.
Trade Market For First Basemen
It’s not immediately clear how many contenders will be pushing for upgrades at first base, with the Yankees perhaps representing the team with the clearest need. But other teams may still see an opportunity to add some pop with a platoon or bench option. Here are the first basemen that may be available over the next several weeks:
Rentals
Yonder Alonso, Athletics | $4MM in 2017
One of the breakout hitters of the current season, Alonso has exhibited fundamental changes in his approach that give cause to believe he’ll keep destroying baseballs down the stretch. While there has been some chatter about a possible extension with Oakland, the smart money remains on a trade. Teams that buy into Alonso as a middle-of-the-order bat with patience and power will no doubt see real value in pursuing him as an affordable rental player.
Lucas Duda, Mets | $7.25MM in 2017
An underappreciated offensive force, Duda has returned from an injury-riddled 2016 season as a potent left-handed bat. His batting average will never impress, but he draws plenty of walks and brings top-end power. Thus far in 2017, Duda has carried a career-best .286 isolated slugging mark and has swatted 14 long balls in 62 games. He’s not all that expensive, either.
John Jaso, Pirates | $4MM in 2017
Once quite an underappreciated hitter in his own right, Jaso hasn’t kept up his productivity since landing in Pittsburgh. He’s now a solid-average hitter on the whole, and that has held true even as he has swapped out some of his legendary plate discipline for power this year. Though Jaso has seven dingers in 203 plate appearances, putting him on pace to easily set a career high, he has uncharacteristically posted a 46:20 K/BB ratio and is reaching base at only a .320 clip. While he has mostly played the outfield this year, Jaso would most likely be targeted as a bench bat who could factor into the mix at first.
Controlled Through 2018
Matt Adams, Braves | $2.8MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018
We haven’t seen a large enough sample of Freddie Freeman at third base to know how long that experiment will continue. But the Atlanta front office won’t just be measuring the star’s capacity for the hot corner; it’ll also be weighing Adams’s trade value. With another year of control remaining, the 28-year-old could command a somewhat higher price than some of the pure rental options. Adams has produced at a .292/.339/.608 clip, with 13 homers, in his 186 plate appearances in a Braves uniform.
Mike Napoli, Rangers | $6MM in 2017; $11MM club option ($2.5MM buyout) in 2018
The 35-year-old isn’t hitting well at all in his latest run with the Rangers. Despite a healthy tally of 18 home runs, Napoli carries a .194/.273/.437 batting line over 283 trips to the plate. That’ll surely improve as his .215 BABIP moves north, but if the Rangers end up turning into a seller, Napoli would likely end up being moved mostly for some cost savings. (Note: I thought about including Joey Gallo on this list, but he seems lined up to step in for Napoli in 2018.)
Victor Martinez, Tigers | $18MM in 2017; $18MM in 2018
He’s obviously not really an option to play first base, but Martinez gets consideration here since he doesn’t fit anywhere else. At 38 years of age, VMart has stumbled to a .253/.322/.366 slash with just six long balls in his 286 trips to the plate. He is still producing a 40.0% hard-hit rate, so perhaps there’s hope of a turnaround yet, but the contract is obviously well under water.
Longer-Term Assets
Jose Abreu, White Sox | $10.825MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018-19
Though he finished strong last year, Abreu faced some questions entering his age-30 campaign. He has answered with a .299/.349/.522 batting line and 16 long balls over 375 plate appearances. While Abreu probably won’t ever be quite the force he was in his debut campaign, back in 2014, he looks like a good bet to continue producing high-end offensive numbers through the end of his contract. The White Sox haven’t seemed as inclined to deal Abreu as other stars, but it’s hard to imagine the organization wouldn’t be amenable to trading him in the right circumstances.
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays | $4.125MM in 2017; $4.125MM in 2018; $6MM club option ($250K buyout) in 2019
The former top prospect has turned his extension from a perceived head-scratcher to a huge win for Toronto. Smoak has already set a personal high with 23 home runs and made his first All-Star appearance. Even if the Jays remain mired in the AL East cellar, though, it’ll be hard for them to part with a player who now looks like a solid bet to provide good value on an affordable contract over the next several seasons.
Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays | $10MM in 2017; $11MM in 2018; $12MM in 2019
Already 34 years of age, and hardly a bargain, Morales doesn’t look like a terribly appealing trade candidate. He’s hitting at an unimpressive .252/.300/.454 rate since arriving in Toronto. While it’s reasonable to hope for improvement, it’d also be hard for rival organizations to stake such a big commitment on an aging player — particularly given the alternatives.
Justin Bour, Marlins | First-time arb-eligible in 2018
Entering the year, Bour had established himself as a surprisingly effective slugger — though he was limited both by an inability to play anywhere but first and questions about his abilities against left-handed pitching. He has responded with a huge arbitration platform season in which he has not only continued to pummel right-handers, but owns a .333/.412/.667 slash in 68 plate appearances without the platoon advantage.
Tommy Joseph, Phillies | First-time arb-eligible in 2020
With Rhys Hoskins clamoring for a promotion, it’s possible to imagine the Phillies shopping Joseph. But will there be much demand? He’s hitting at a solid .252/.313/.466 rate on the year, but that’s not quite the level he showed last year and surely not enough to warrant a regular job on a first-division club. As a righty bat that can only play at first base, Joseph is a limited player.
C.J. Cron, Angels | First-time arb-eligible in 2018
Much the same is true of Cron, who has stumbled badly this year after putting up slightly above-average offensive numbers over the prior three seasons. He’s back in the majors after a stint at Triple-A, but could be sent elsewhere if improvements are not forthcoming.
Brandon Belt, Giants | $2.8MM in 2017; $64MM from 2018-21
A polished and extremely steady hitter who only just turned 29, Belt looks like a solid asset for San Francisco. He’s not exactly cheap, but the future commitment is more than fair for a still-youthful player who owns a lifetime 127 OPS+. While the Giants will likely at least consider proposals, there’s little chance they could reliably replace his production without spending more in the upcoming offseason.
Joey Votto, Reds | $22MM in 2017; $157MM from 2018-23 (including $7MM buyout on 2024 club option)
Still an awesome hitter, Votto has full no-trade rights and doesn’t appear to be on the market this summer. But nothing is bolted to the floors in Cincinnati, and the contract is perhaps aging better than has been feared, so he has to be mentioned.
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers | $28MM in 2017; $192MM from 2018-23 (including $8MM buyout on 2024 vesting club option)
Cabrera is currently in the midst of his worst season since his debut campaign. And he’s 34 … and is owed gobs of cash over the next six years. It’s far too soon to count out a full-blown turnaround at the plate from the outstanding slugger, but this is a tough contract to move at present. Cabrera also controls his own destiny and can veto any deal.
Currently in the Minors
Pedro Alvarez, Orioles | Minor-league contract
The 30-year-old has attempted a move to the outfield at Triple-A. It’s doubtful that a contender will play him on the grass late in 2017, though perhaps Alvarez could end up functioning as a power source off the bench. He has not hit particularly well at Norfolk this year, but has a long history of solidly above-average output with excellent power against right-handed pitching.
Byung Ho Park, Twins | $2.75MM in 2017; $6.5MM through 2019 (including $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
Things just aren’t going well for the former KBO star. He showed plenty of pop, but also big holes, in his MLB debut last year, leading to a demotion. While he no doubt hoped to resolve some of the lingering on-base issues, it has all fallen apart thus far in 2017. Park is hitting just .243/.301/.391 with four home runs in his 249 plate appearances in the highest level of the minors.
Latest On Marlins’ Sale Talks
11:20pm: Mas “seems like a surefire favorite,” writes Heyman, though he notes that the finalization of a deal may yet take as many as two weeks. Heyman agrees with the $1.17 billion figure that Ozanian reported yesterday. Mas’ involvement in the Miami community is seen as a big plus by the league, Heyman writes, and he also notes that Jeter’s group consists mostly of investors that are committing money in $10-50MM increments. Mas, on the other hand, has a net worth of more than $2 billion and has a “couple other investors,” Heyman writes, which obviously makes the transaction less complicated.
Jeter was, at one point, offered a spot in Mas’ ownership group, according to Heyman. He preferred to continue his own efforts due to his desire to be the ownership group’s control person.
10:05pm: Manfred said today that three bids are all comparable in terms of price, as Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes. With final negotiations playing out, Loria will soon have to make a decision on which bid to accept. Loria refused to offer much of a comment when asked by reporters today, Healey adds. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick did note that Loria firmly denied that there’s any deal in place.
JULY 11, 10:20am: Perhaps it’s too soon to count out the group led by Romney and Wayne Rothbaum. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets that its members are still expressing confidence in landing the club. Indeed, it has even added another local celebrity to its slate of investors in hopes of boosting the bid (thus making for another odd twist in this particular saga). Per Jackson, Armando Christian Perez — once the Marlins’ DJ and now famous by his stage name, Pitbull — is now a part of the bidding group (along with former Jeter compatriot Jeb Bush, Hall of Fame hurler Tom Glavine, recently fired D-Backs GM Dave Stewart and others).
JULY 10: With all eyes on Marlins Park as it hosts this year’s All-Star Game festivities, the ongoing efforts to find a buyer for the Miami organization appear to be reaching a boiling point. Though a deal obviously wasn’t struck before the mid-summer classic, as had been hoped, commissioner Rob Manfred suggested today that the process will likely come to a conclusion in the near-term.
Notably, per Manfred, that uncertainty does not mean that the league will be looking at any deadline activities. “They don’t need my permission to make player moves,” the commissioner said. While sale considerations could still influence the decisionmaking, then, it’s notable that other organizations won’t need to worry about the league’s position in attempting to structure deals with the Marlins.
Despite the apparent momentum, it’s still uncertain just how the bidding will turn out. Multiple reports disagree, in fact, as to which direction the winds are blowing. Since the information currently occupying the newswire can best be described as deeply conflicting, we’ll run through the latest chatter to get a sense of the state of play.
Kicking things off today was a report from Mike Ozanian of Forbes, in which he said an agreement is in place between current owner Jeffrey Loria and Miami billionaire Jorge Mas. Per Ozanian, the deal will be finalized at a $1.17B price tag — unless “an unusual twist” scuttles things.
Both the current ownership group and the would-be buyer, though, told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that no agreement was in place. Such a public stance may not be fully incompatible with that report, but others cast more doubt. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, for example, hears that Mas is in the lead — but also that he has yet to secure a deal with Loria.
In the face of all that, then, came a New York Post report indicating that Mas likely won’t land the Fish. Instead, per Josh Krosman, Ken Davidoff, and Claire Atkinson, it’s the Derek Jeter-led bidding group (which now also includes Michael Jordan) that seems to be “closing in on a deal” with Loria. The Post pegs the price at $1.2B and suggests the entire affair will be finished by “next week.”
If it’s possible to draw any conclusions at this point, it seems that the bidding is now a two-horse race — with the Tagg Romney-led group now falling largely out of the picture. Beyond that, however, there’s a total lack of certainty even as the organization weighs potential trade scenarios for large portions of its MLB roster.