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Beane, Forst Stress That Gray Unlikely To Be Traded

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NOV. 10: “We don’t intend to trade Sonny Gray,” Athletics GM David Forst told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford today. “Not for a lack of interest, and not because he’s not a great pitcher that a lot of teams want. But we really feel like he’s part of our future, as well. As soon as you trade a young, healthy really good pitcher, you’re looking for another one.”

NOV. 4: While many fans whose teams are seeking top-tier pitching this winter have dreamed of prying right-hander Sonny Gray away from the Athletics, Oakland president of baseball operations Billy Beane tells Peter Gammons that he “just cannot see us trading Gray or [Josh] Reddick.”

The A’s have earned the reputation of being willing to trade anyone, and nothing exemplifies that more than last winter’s Josh Donaldson swap with the Blue Jays. Skeptics will point to quotes last year which indicated that Donaldson wouldn’t be dealt, but those came from an unnamed source as opposed to on-record comments from the club’s top decision-maker.

“Trading Gray is not something I think we could do,” Beane explained to Gammons. “We have to put a representative product on the field, and continue to dream we get a ballpark. We should have good pitching, with Gray, Jarrod Parker, Kendall Graveman, Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, maybe Sean Manaea during the season.” While those comments don’t 100 percent eliminate the possibility of moving Gray or Reddick, they should serve to temper some rumors surrounding their names.

Gray, who turns 26 on Saturday, would command a king’s ransom in a trade anyhow. With two years and 61 days of big league service, Gray isn’t yet arbitration eligible and won’t be a free agent until the completion of the 2019 season. Four years of team control, the first of which would come near the league minimum, for a pitcher that has worked to a 2.88 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate would rank among the most valuable commodities in the game.

Reddick, on the other hand, is more of a conventional trade candidate, as the 28-year-old (29 in February) outfielder will be a free agent following the 2016 campaign. However, this is the second time that Beane has gone on record as saying he doesn’t plan to trade Reddick. Beane, in fact, discussed Reddick as a possible extension candidate when speaking to the Bay Area media following the regular season’s completion.

Reddick is a .251/.315/.439 hitter in four seasons with the A’s, though that includes what now looks to have been outlier season in 2013 when his bat was surprisingly unproductive (91 OPS+). Defensive metrics were somewhat down on Reddick in 2015, though he dealt with an oblique strain early in the season and also battled several knee injuries back in 2014, which could have lingered into the 2015 campaign. He comes with an outstanding defensive reputation, however, ranking ninth in the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved and 10th in Ultimate Zone Rating since being traded to Oakland prior to the 2012 campaign. Reddick has his flaws — namely a weak bat against same-handed pitching — but he’s a highly valuable player that could be in for a significant contract after the 2016 season if the A’s aren’t able to work out a long-term deal prior to that point.

Trade Notes: Plouffe, Storen, Papelbon, Rangers, Rays

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If the Twins are able to work out a contract with Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, the Angels are expected to pursue a trade of third baseman Trevor Plouffe, assuming their third base vacancy hasn’t already been filled by that time, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The Twins are intrigued by some of the Angels’ power bullpen arms, including Cam Bedrosian, Fletcher further reports. As he notes, the Twins wouldn’t part with Plouffe solely for Bedrosian, though the Angels certainly have other pieces that could entice Minnesota.

A few more notes pertaining to the trade market as executives discuss swaps at the 2015 GM Meetings…

  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo says that he’s yet to receive any inquiries on right-hander Stephen Strasburg but has received calls on both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon (via Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). James Wagner of the Washington Post, however, adds (via Twitter) that Rizzo says he won’t move either reliever unless he receives a “real baseball offer.” Many have speculated that the Nats will sell low on Papelbon following his altercation with Bryce Harper and will be forced to do the same with Storen after the Papelbon acquisition strained his relationship with the team. Rizzo’s comments, on the surface, suggest that that’s not the case, though he clearly wouldn’t come right out and say he was looking to move either right-hander.
  • The Rangers are receiving interest in both center fielder Leonys Martin and oft-injured shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar, GM Jon Daniels told reporters, including Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (links to Twitter). Daniels notes that teams are looking to buy low on both players, though, which isn’t an ideal time to deal a formerly valuable asset. Grant notes that Profar, in particular, is still viewed highly by the organization.
  • The Rays are receiving considerable trade interest in both Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, but the general sense is that they’d need to be offered “a LOT” for the Rays to deal either reliever. Boxberger is not yet arbitration eligible, so it makes sense that Tampa Bay would value him very highly. However, with McGee slated to earn $4.7MM in arbitration this year (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), one can imagine the cost-conscious Rays being reasonably open to offers on McGee.

Blue Jays To Sign Tony LaCava To Multi-Year Contract

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The Blue Jays and interim general manager Tony LaCava have agreed to a long-term contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). LaCava’s contract guarantees him some form of front office role whether or not he is made the team’s permanent general manager, according to Rosenthal.

LaCava was named interim general manager of the Blue Jays after Alex Anthopoulos resigned following the season. He presently slots in beneath new team president Mark Shapiro on the baseball operations hierarchy, but the new contract assures that there will be some continuity in the front office regardless of whether or not Shapiro decides to make an external hire to fill the team’s GM vacancy.

LaCava joined the Blue Jays’ front office that October as a special assistant to then-GM J.P. Ricciardi. He was named assistant GM in 2007 and has since gained traction as a GM candidate around the league, interviewing for multiple general manager openings. He worked with Shapiro as far back as 2002, when he was a national cross-checker with the Indians.

Diamondbacks Acquire Chris Herrmann From Twins

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The Twins announced that they’ve traded catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league outfielder/first baseman Daniel Palka.

The 27-year-old Herrmann will give the Diamondbacks some needed depth behind the plate, although he’s never been able to carry his minor league success over to the Major League level. Herrmann is just a .181/.249/.280 career hitter in 389 plate appearances and batted .146/.214/.272 in 113 trips to the plate this past season. However, he’s a .261/.336/.391 hitter at the Triple-A level. He’s caught 38 percent of opposing base-stealers in his big league career but also comes with below-average marks in pitch-framing.

Palka, 24, hit .280/.352/.532 with 29 homers and 24 steals at Class-A Advanced, though he was a bit old for the level. MLB.com ranked Palka 29th among D-Backs farmhands, praising power as his standout tool but noting that he’ll need to prove he can hit enough to tap into that raw power. MLB.com pegs the 6’2″, 220-pound Palka as more of a first baseman than an outfielder in the long run.

Crasnick On Price, Greinke, Heyward, Upton, Murphy, Starlin

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick conducted his annual Hot Stove survey, polling a number of front-office executives and scouts about some of the top names available both in free agency and on the trade market. Crasnick asked respondents to weigh in on David Price vs. Zack Greinke; Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton; Chris Davis vs. Yoenis Cespedes; which of Colby Rasmus or Daniel Murphy would be able to sustain some of his postseason success; which of Jeff Samardzija or Ian Desmond is a better rebound candidate; which of Javier Baez or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded; and which of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto is likeliest to return to the Royals. Crasnick has full voting and plenty of quotes from execs/scouts for those who wish to read the piece in its entirety, but here are some particularly interesting highlights…

  • More respondents felt comfortable giving a nine-figure deal to Greinke than to Price, though the expectation is still that Price’s deal will top Greinke’s due to age. Crasnick quotes a pair of scouts that rave about Greinke’s delivery and how he can age well due to his intelligence and lack of reliance on pure velocity. One NL scout likened Greinke to Greg Maddux.
  • Heyward won the voting over Upton when asked which would perform better over the life of his next contract, though there was a reasonably even split, and many scouts quoted by Crasnick are concerned with Heyward’s reliance on defensive value and what one described to be a high-maintenance swing.
  • Murphy won the voting over Rasmus in their question, and one American League special assistant offered an interesting take to Crasnick: “If I was a team and I had a market for Murphy, I’d want him playing third base. I don’t like him at second. The ball finds him, like it did in the World Series. He got exposed there.” Murphy does have experience at third base, and we’ve mentioned him as a possible option for teams in need of help at the hot corner here at MLBTR, as the free-agent market presents little beyond Murphy and David Freese.
  • More respondents felt that Castro is likelier to be traded than Baez, even though as one scout put it, Baez would “fetch more of a haul.” An AL GM offered an interesting take on Castro’s contract, however, telling Crasnick: “Castro showed enough at two positions this year that his contract will seem like a fair deal once the free-agent class this year gets paid.” Castro, who is owed about $38MM over the next four seasons, certainly isn’t cheap and isn’t without his risks. He was a replacement-level player in 2013 and played that way for much of the 2015 season before his bat came to life late in the season following a switch to second base. Of course, Castro also sported an unsustainable .388 BABIP in September and October, which somewhat inflated his production.
  • Cespedes and Samardzija narrowly won the voting on their respective question, while Gordon was far and away the most popular answer in the Royals realm.

Lance Lynn Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn will miss the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery today, the team announced today.

Lynn’s injury is a significant blow to the Cardinals’ pitching staff, though the team does have some depth to get around the loss of its No. 2 starter. Adam Wainwright is expected to be healthy again for the duration of the 2016 campaign, and he’ll be joined in the rotation by Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia, whose $11.5MM club option was recently exercised. Other options in the rotation include Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales, though Gonzales dealt with shoulder injuries in 2015, as did the impressive but inexperienced Martinez. Between the unexpected loss of Lynn, the potential departure of John Lackey via free agency, and the 50-game suspension for top prospect Alex Reyes, it seems reasonable to expect the Cardinals to enter the both the free-agent and trade markets for rotation upgrades.

General manager John Mozeliak acknowledged today after the announcement that the injury to Lynn alters the Cardinals’ course of action this winter (Twitter link via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold). While the team hasn’t previously dabbled in lucrative starting pitching contracts for free agents, that could change this winter, Goold notes. It’s obviously extremely early to speculate, but one would think the injury to Lynn considerably enhances the Cardinals’ pre-existing interest in a reunion with Lackey.

The top of the free agent market, of course, consists of David Price and Zack Greinke, while Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto occupy the next tier. If there’s such a thing as an opportune time to lose one of your best starters, the Cardinals have found it, as this year’s free-agent market features virtually unprecedented starting pitching depth. Other options for the Redbirds would include Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Mark Buehrle and more.

The Cardinals have the lowest first-round pick, No. 30 overall, by virtue of owning the Majors’ best record in 2015, and they could potentially gain two compensatory picks if Lackey and Jason Heyward sign elsewhere. I’d imagine that would make the team less wary about parting with its first-round pick to bolster the rotation.

Over the past three seasons, the 28-year-old Lynn has quietly solidified himself as one of the more valuable starting pitchers in the National League. The former No. 39 overall pick has tallied 580 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball in that time, averaging 8.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate. Fangraphs rates him 20th among starting pitchers in wins above replacement in that time.

The Cardinals considered Lynn reliable enough to lock in his three arbitration seasons last winter with a three-year, $22MM contract. A healthy Lynn, of course, easily justifies that type of financial commitment, and he did so in 2015. He’ll be penciled in for a $7.5MM salary next season and $7.5MM the following year as well before hitting the open market heading into his age-31 season.

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

NL East Notes: Minor, Braves, Ozuna, Mets, Speier

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The Braves are now uncertain whether or not they’ll tender lefty Mike Minor a contract, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Signs had pointed to the team offering arbitration, with Minor likely to earn at or near the $5.6MM level that he set by winning his arbitration case with the team last year. But the 27-year-old has reportedly suffered a setback in his efforts to return from labrum surgery, and has yet to make it back onto a mound. “We think it could happen prior to the tender date,” said GM John Coppolella. “We want to see something, whether it’s off the mound or … we need to see something. We can’t just blindly tender him a contract and put the team at risk. Because every single dollar counts for us.”

  • The Braves suddenly find themselves with a surplus of outfielders after largely committing to shifting Hector Olivera to left field, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. If Atlanta finds it hard to shed any of the salary owed to Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn, says Bowman, the team may look closer at a trade of Cameron Maybin. But the club’s top executives continue to say they don’t feel pressure to trade Maybin, even after the Olivera move, as O’Brien tweets.
  • The Marlins are indeed interested in trading outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but not at anything less than his market value, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. Of course, as Frisaro notes, the team may find it necessary to trade him if it hopes to accomplish its apparent  goal of adding a quality, controllable pitcher.
  • Mets assistant GM John Ricco says that the club is receiving strong interest in its pitching, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That’s not surprising, given the depth and quality of arms present in the organization.
  • Ricco also said that the Mets could look to add an offensive player that is capable of filling in around the diamond, rather than seeking a regular at one spot, Puma tweets. Naturally, that statement calls to mind the possibility of signing Ben Zobrist, but there are other players — including, arguably, Daniel Murphy — who could function in a similar capacity.
  • It may be time for Mets third baseman David Wright to begin a transition across the diamond, Mark Simon of ESPNNewYork.com writes. The veteran and team leader made a thrilling comeback from serious back issues, but showed real difficulty throwing the ball across the diamond, and Rubin argues that now is the time to begin spelling him at the hot corner and working him in at first base.
  • The Nationals are set to add Chris Speier to their coaching staff, either as the third base or bench coach, according to a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. The 19-year MLB veteran served as the bench coach under new Nats skipper Dusty Baker when he was with the Reds. Speier has continued on with Cincinnati as a special assistant to GM Walt Jocketty since Baker departed.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The future is now for the Astros, as they’ll be looking to continue their winning ways and return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jed Lowrie, IF: $15MM through 2017 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2018)
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $12.5MM through 2017
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: $9MM through 2016
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $8MM through 2017 (plus club options for 2018-19)
  • Scott Feldman, SP: $8MM through 2016
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $7MM through 2016 (includes $500K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2017)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $6.5MM through 2018 (includes $500K buyout of $2.5MM club option for 2019; club also has options for 2020-21)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Jeff Luhnow’s extensive (and sometimes controversial) rebuild of the Astros began to pay dividends a bit earlier than expected, as most pundits figured the young club was still a year or two away when the 2015 season began.  For Houston fans suffering through years of losing baseball, however, the successes of 2015 couldn’t have come soon enough.  The Astros led the AL West for much of the season, and while a September swoon cost them the division, they still beat the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game and took the Royals to the full five games in their ALDS matchup.

The Astros weren’t afraid to spend some money last winter in order to upgrade their bullpen, lineup and rotation, nor did they shy away from dealing notable prospects like Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana in their big midseason deal for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers.  Now that they’ve established themselves as a playoff threat, the next step will be to see how much more owner Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll and whether or not Luhnow will sacrifice any more of his vast prospect capital in order to enhance the Major League roster.

Just under $43MM is committed to seven players on the 2016 Astros, and another $31MM is projected to go to nine arbitration-eligible players (though it’s no guarantee all will be tendered, as I’ll explore later).  That adds up to $74MM for 16 players, which is already more than the $72.64MM the Astros spent on their last Opening Day roster.  The payroll has gradually risen from a measly $26MM in 2013 to roughly $50.5MM in 2014 to last year’s total, so it seems like a boost into the $95-$100MM range could be coming this winter.  Crane has repeatedly stated that Luhnow will have more funding available as the team’s development warrants, so if the team is contending again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros pass the $100MM threshold if it means securing a player to help them make a deeper postseason run.

With so much young talent both on the Major League roster and developing down on the farm, it stands to reason that the Astros won’t be a one-year wonder.  For starters, Houston’s lineup will be improved simply by getting an entire year of rookie sensation Carlos Correa and healthy full seasons from Gomez and George Springer.  Gomez is entering the last year of his contract, so he’ll be lined up for a major free agent deal next winter if he gets back to his past All-Star form.

Correa, Springer, Gomez and Jose Altuve form the core of Houston’s lineup, though the Astros have several questions to be answered elsewhere around the diamond.  For one, those four are all right-handed hitters, so the Astros have a distinct need to add lineup balance in the form of at least one notable left-handed bat.  Several regulars are arbitration-eligible, and the team could consider not tendering contracts to some familiar names in order to free some money for bigger upgrades.

Third baseman Luis Valbuena, first baseman Chris Carter and DH Evan Gattis are all cut from the same cloth as low-average, low-OBP sluggers who provided pop in the form of a combined 76 homers.  While their overall arbitration price of $14.8MM isn’t exorbitant, three players with the same limited skill set could be seen as a redundancy for a contending team.  Valbuena is the most likely to stay, as he’s currently the most notable left-handed bat on the roster and can be platooned with Jed Lowrie.  Valbuena is also a free agent after 2016, with prospect Colin Moran on track to get at least a share of the job by 2017.

Though Carter and Gattis are hard to replace from a power standpoint, it wouldn’t be too hard for Houston to find players to top their combined 0.3 fWAR in 2015.  The Astros will pursue trades for both before the tendering deadline, and my guess is that if it came down to a non-tender decision, they’d keep the longer-tenured Carter and let Gattis go.  Even if Houston tenders one or both, however, I’d suspect both would still be shopped during the rest of the offseason.  You could even make a case that the ’Stros could non-tender both sluggers in order to really shake things up, but that’s an unlikely move given how Carter boosted his trade value with a late surge in September and through the playoffs.

If Carter, Gattis or both are gone, who takes over at first or DH?  Prospect A.J. Reed dominated high-A and Double-A pitching last season and will compete for a roster spot in Spring Training, though it might be too early to count on him since he’s yet to play a game at the Triple-A level.  You’ll likely see him hit the bigs sometime in 2016, however.  The Astros won’t yet give up on former top prospect Jon Singleton due to his young age (24) and long-term contract, though Singleton has done little in 420 career PA to prove that he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a contending team, let alone regular playing time. Former 33rd-rounder Tyler White is another option after his monster season split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The non-tender question can also be asked about the catcher’s job, though my guess is that the Astros stick with the Jason Castro/Hank Conger tandem.  The team loves Castro’s defense, relationship with the pitching staff and clubhouse leadership role, while Conger also had good pitch-framing numbers and hit .229/.311/.448 with 11 homers over 229 PA.  Houston has been cited as a possible destination for Matt Wieters, who is an upgrade on paper.  Given the question marks about his injury history and the lack of any other distinct better options on the open market, the Astros might feel more comfortable to keep their familiar catching platoon and spend elsewhere.

Left field is the only clear hole in the lineup as Colby Rasmus will hit free agency after nicely rebuilding his value with a solid regular season and a Ruthian postseason.  The Astros have young options to play left field next season, as a Preston Tucker/Jake Marisnick platoon is probably the top alternative if Rasmus or another everyday regular can’t be obtained.  This said, it wouldn’t be a shock if Rasmus re-signed since he enjoyed his time with the club and at least sounds open to returning.  (Not to mention that Rasmus is a left-handed hitter.)

If he still intends to retire within a few seasons, Rasmus has a case for becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  Rasmus could take the one-year, $15.8MM deal to remain in a familiar spot for another season, as while he’d obviously make far more money in a multi-year contract, he might not want to risk being in another uncomfortable clubhouse situation for what could be the final few years of his career.  (Jeff Todd and Steve Adams recently raised this point on the MLBTR Podcast.)  Houston seems comfortable with the idea of Rasmus accepting.  Retaining a short-term established player, after all, fits with the Astros’ long-term outfield plans with prospects Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher all on the horizon, as well as Tucker and Marisnick in the fold right now.  It’s probably still likely that Rasmus rejects the QO, but he at least has a few more layers to his decision than most.

Luhnow faces an interesting juggling act in adding players to help his team win now, yet also still maintaining and relying on the youth movement that the Astros worked so hard to build.  Top-tier free agents like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon would more than fill the club’s need in left field, though that would represent one less spot for Cameron and company in a few years’ time.  (Center field could well be open if Gomez leaves, though Springer is surely ticketed as a long-term piece.)  Of the top names, Gordon may be the best fit for Houston given that he’s a left-handed hitter, and also because the analytically-minded Astros are the sort of team that would particularly appreciate how Gordon can contribute in all facets of the game.

The same “now vs. the future” debate could be had about first base.  With Reed’s big bat looming, do the Astros need a big upgrade like Chris Davis or could they acquire a short-term veteran bat like Justin Morneau to platoon with Carter/Gattis until Reed arrives?  Davis checks a lot of boxes as an ideal signing for the Astros — he’s a Texas native, a left-handed hitter and brings even more power than Carter or Gattis while providing a much better all-around game.  Davis can contribute from day one while Reed may need some time to acclimate to Major League pitching.  That said, signing Davis would block Reed for the first few years of his career, and making Reed a full-time DH so early in his career probably isn’t something the Astros want.

Another concern is Davis’ price tag, which could be in the six-year/$144MM range and thus would easily surpass Carlos Lee’s six-year, $100MM deal from 2006 as the biggest contract in Astros history.  Payroll boost notwithstanding, I don’t see Houston splurging on two nine-figure contracts this offseason, so they’d have to choose whether they want to make a big impact (if any) on the pitching or offense front.

Speaking of pitching, the rotation projects as Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Lance McCullers and Fiers, with young arms like Vincent Velasquez, Dan Straily, Michael Feliz and Brett Oberholtzer available as depth (not to mention Mark Appel down in Triple-A).  Keuchel stepped forward as an ace and Cy Young Award contender in 2015, and his contract extension talks will be one of the club’s underlying subplots.  Expect to hear more about this topic in February and March when teams generally turn from offseason additions to extension business.  McHugh has now delivered consecutive seasons of 3+fWAR pitching, Feldman is a reliable veteran innings-eater when healthy and McCullers and Fiers have already showed the ability to dominate MLB hitters in their brief careers.

Plenty of teams would be satisfied with this pitching situation as it stands, though the Astros are thought to be in the market for a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Keuchel.  Remember, Houston pursued James Shields last winter even before their breakthrough season, and pursued the likes of Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross at the trade deadline.  While the Astros ended up with a controllable arm in Fiers and a bigger name hurler in Scott Kazmir, their next step is to land a pitcher who is both an ace and will be in Houston for several years.

Kazmir himself has stated he’d like to be that ace, though his middling results as an Astro both diminished his market value and perhaps hurt his chances of a return.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros check in on any of the top free agent pitchers, with David Price and Johnny Cueto perhaps getting the most focus since Houston already expressed in both starters last summer.  Also, neither pitcher has a qualifying offer draft pick attached to their services, though the Astros might not mind surrendering a first-rounder for the right signing given how many good prospects are already on board.  Price’s $200MM+ price tag may be too much to afford, though I could definitely see Houston getting involved with Cueto in the $115MM-$120MM range.

If a major arm is added to the rotation, Feldman stands out as a possible trade chip.  The right-hander was shut down with a strained throwing shoulder in September, so obviously he’d have to prove he’s back to normal in Spring Training.  Feldman brings a decent track record on a one-year, $8MM deal and could be very attractive to teams looking for a last-minute rotation boost.

This leaves the bullpen, which will be another major target area for the second straight offseason.  The Astros relief corps had the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the game last season, though it faded badly down the stretch with a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October (and that doesn’t count the infamous meltdown in Game 4 of the ALDS).  Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Josh Fields will return, while Houston has already declined their $3.5MM option on veteran righty Chad Qualls, whose peripherals suggest he pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA would indicate.

Southpaws Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are all free agents, so the Astros will certainly have to address a dearth of lefty relief.  Signing one of the winter’s top left-handed bullpen arms (Antonio Bastardo or Sipp himself) would add another significant contract to the Houston bullpen that already has over $12MM invested in 2016 salaries for Gregerson and Neshek.

The biggest relief investment could come in the form of a major closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were heavily targeted by Houston at the deadline.  The Reds and Padres are known to be asking for a large return for either closer, yet Houston is one of the few teams with the prospect depth to afford surrendering a notable minor leaguer or two for a reliever.  A star closer would make the Astros’ already solid bullpen even deeper, and with the rotation ideally providing more stable innings, the relievers are more likely to be sharp late in the season.

As noted earlier, Luhnow was aggressively seeking out top talent last winter before the Astros had proven they could put a winner on the field.  With a postseason berth now giving the franchise extra credibility with free agents, Luhnow could be one of the offseason’s busiest general managers given the plethora of options he has to improve the team.

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