Reactions To The Mike Leake Deal
After spending much of the offseason searching for a rotation upgrade, the Cardinals got the job done on Tuesday when they signed Mike Leake to a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $80MM. The deal, which includes a mutual option that can boost the deal to $93-94MM and a full no-trade clause, gives the Cardinals some much-needed support on the backend of their starting five. This offseason, St. Louis lost right-hander John Lackey to free agency and right-hander Lance Lynn will be out after getting Tommy John surgery.
Here’s a look at some of the reactions to Leake’s hefty payday:
- Leake had discussions with teams about doing a three-year deal at $20MM per season with opt-outs after each year, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com hears (on Twitter). Ultimately, however, Leake signed on for a guaranteed average annual value of $16MM over five seasons.
- The Leake signing includes a hidden benefit for the Cardinals, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Leake did not cost the Cards a draft pick since the mid-season deal sending him to San Francisco made him ineligible for a qualifying offer. The Cardinals, meanwhile, picked up an additional two picks when they lost Lackey and Jason Heyward to the Cubs in free agency. Teams generally view a late-first round pick as being worth $5-8MM, sources tell Rosenthal, so the net cost for signing Leake might be something closer to $72-75MM for St. Louis.
- Leake’s consistency and durability make him ideal fit for the Cardinals, Keith Law of ESPN.com writes (Insider sub. req’d). Law argues that Leake’s deal is about the going rate for a league-average starter right now but his ability to eat up innings and induce ground balls make him an ideal fit for the Cards. Leake has made over 30 starts in each of the last four seasons and has never suffered an arm injury. The Cardinals need an innings eater badly and ground ball pitching is something that they value highly, Law writes.
- The $80MM deal might seem steep at first glance, but Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs took a stab at justifying it for St. Louis. Among the arguments made is that Leake is only 28 years of age. He was one of the youngest free agent hurlers available this winter and unlike other available under-30 pitchers, Leake has a history of being dependable.
- On Wednesday, MLB Trade Rumors’ Instagram account unveiled a sneak peak at what Leake will look like in his new jersey.
Mets Rule Out Yoenis Cespedes
If the door was cracked open even a little bit before for Yoenis Cespedes to re-sign with the Mets, it now appears to have been slammed shut. The Mets are still looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder, but it won’t be Cespedes, sources familiar with their thinking tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
The Mets are heading into 2016 with lefty bats in left field (Michael Conforto), right field (Curtis Granderson) and first base (Lucas Duda) and they’re eyeing right-handed bats as a complement to that, including Steve Pearce and others of that ilk, according to Heyman. Of course, it’s not a huge surprise to hear that the Mets are moving on from Cespedes after their recent signing of Alejandro De Aza.
At some point this winter, the Mets offered a short term deal of perhaps “two or three” years for the Cuban slugger, sources tell Heyman. Interestingly enough, they never got around to discussing dollars. As Heyman notes, that probably wouldn’t have moved the needle one way or another anyway since Cespedes is widely expected to net a five- or six-year deal. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Cespedes would net a six-year, $140MM deal.
Right now, it’s not immediately clear where Cespedes could land. The Orioles and Angels have been linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved. The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for the Roc Nation client as they have a need in left field.
Orioles Notes: Davis, Berry, Worley
Earlier this week we learned that the Orioles are among the clubs that have checked in on free agent pitcher Mat Latos. Latos, 28, is likely seeking a one-year deal to re-establish his value, unlike hurlers like Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen who would all probably require a multi-year commitment. That could be right up the O’s alley as Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun doesn’t believe that the Orioles will go beyond three years in their efforts to land a free-agent starting pitcher.
Here’s more out of Baltimore:
- Hot Stove season typically slows down during the holidays, and that could be a good thing for the Orioles and Chris Davis, Encina writes. There hasn’t been much progress between the two sides heading into Christmas, but it’s pretty obvious that there’s strong mutual interest in a reunion. Perhaps in 2016, when we’re a little bit closer to spring training, the two sides will find a way to meet in the middle.
- More from Encina, who notes that the Orioles did not want to lose left-hander Tim Berry. On Wednesday, the Marlins claimed the southpaw, despite a forgettable 2015 season. Baltimore did not want to jettison Berry from the organization – it only wanted to create space on the 40-man roster for other moves. Berry was one of the Orioles’ top left-handed pitching prospects only two years ago and Miami apparently did not lose sight of that.
- New Orioles right-hander Vance Worley is looking for a new beginning in Baltimore, as Encina writes. “I heard they have a really good clubhouse and a really good atmosphere and that’s the chemistry you need for winning, so I’m looking forward to coming over and being a part of it. … Just looking for a fresh start and looking forward to coming over and helping this team out,” said the pitcher. Worley went on to say that he hopes to return to the starting rotation in 2016.
NL East Notes: Petit, Stammen, Mets, Fernandez, Marlins
Yusmeiro Petit chose to sign with the Nationals because they’re “always in contention,” he told James Wagner of the Washington Post. Petit added that his familiarity with catcher Wilson Ramos — a teammate from the Venezuelan Winter League — and the fact that he knows backup catcher Jose Lobaton also played a part in his decision. Petit spoke with Wagner about how he’s managed to succeed over the past three seasons despite his lack of velocity, working to keep his wind-up and delivery short to hide the ball from batters. The longtime Giants hurler said he had a feeling he might be non-tendered in San Francisco just because of how little he was utilized late in the season. He will most likely assume a similar role to the one he had in San Francisco, although Petit tells Wagner he’ll be ready if the Nationals need help at the back of their rotation.
Here’s more from Wagner’s piece and from the rest of the division…
- Prior to signing Petit, the Nationals tried to work out a deal with former Nat Craig Stammen, whose 2015 season ended due to surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon, Wagner reports. However, Washington was only comfortable offering Stammen 80 percent of what he made last season, which would represent the maximum a player’s salary can be cut in arbitration. The proposed deal included incentives to boost Stammen’s salary, but the two sides couldn’t reach a deal, and Stammen was ultimately non-tendered. MLBTR’s Zach Links reported earlier this month that Stammen is said to be 100 percent recovered from the operation.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently attempted to peg the value of the Mets‘ excellent rotation by estimating what each would receive on the open market at present. Despite the fact that much of the group is lacking in experience, Sherman estimates that the combination of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and even Zack Wheeler, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, could collectively earn one billion dollars. While that sounds outlandish, Sherman ran the number by six different executives from around the league, including GMs and scouting directors, and none refuted the notion. As Sherman points out, teams like the Red Sox have spent in excess of $130MM on Cuban talent (Yoan Moncada and Rusney Castillo) despite not knowing how immediately either would contribute in the Majors; as such, he hypothesizes that it’s not unreasonable that a team would submit a nine-figure bid even to Matz, despite the fact that he’s started just nine games in the Majors. While the exercise is entirely hypothetical, it’s still an interesting concept to think about. And, more interestingly, it raises the question of whether the Mets should be willing to part with one of their starters to fill holes elsewhere on the roster. In a market that is paying starting pitchers extremely aggressively, Sherman notes, New York’s starters have nearly unprecedented value. He points to the Braves’ return for Shelby Miller and notes that most of the Mets’ rotation is more controllable and, in some cases, younger than Miller.
- In his latest Marlins inbox, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles multiple trade-related questions, including one on ace Jose Fernandez. While the 23-year-old’s name has come up often in rumors recently, Frisaro writes that the Marlins’ hope is still to retain Fernandez and add pitching help around him. He quotes team president David Samson: “There is no rift with Jose. He wasn’t available for trade, but people still came to us, and we were OK with that, because you never know, someone may have an idea that you didn’t think of. But it just didn’t happen. I don’t see it happening.”
- Frisaro also notes that the Marlins are hoping to add a free-agent starter that they can pay around $11MM in 2016. Miami could, of course, sign a pitcher to a contract with a larger annual value and backload the deal, though there are also pitchers on the market that figure to sign for an annual value in that range. Frisaro lists Ian Kennedy and Doug Fister as seemingly speculative fits, although Miami has previously been connected to Kennedy this offseason.
Outrighted: Rondon, Monell, Cunniff, Robertson
In addition to the large number of minor signings and waiver claims today, there have been quite a few outrights from around the league. Righty A.J. Achter has already been outrighted by the Angels, but here are the rest of the day’s outright assignments…
- The Pirates have outrighted right-hander Jorge Rondon to Triple-A Indianapolis. While Rondon hadn’t been previously designated for assignment, the Buccos needed to clear a roster spot to make way for John Jaso and his new two-year contract, and Rondon was the 40-man casualty. Rondon carried a 2.23 ERA over 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year, with 7.4 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He was once rated among the top thirty prospects of the Cardinals, and has a track record of solid, if unspectacular, numbers in the minors.
- The Mets have outrighted catcher Johnny Monell to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin (Twitter link). Monell was designated for assignment last week when the team needed a roster spot for the recently re-signed Bartolo Colon. Monell, 30 next March, received his second taste of Major League action last season, collecting a career-high 52 plate appearances with New York. Prior to that, his lone experience in the big leagues was a brief eight-game stint with the 2013 Giants (nine plate appearances). In the Majors, Monell is a .161/230/.196 hitter across his small sample of 61 PAs, but he has a sound track record in the minors, where he’s put together a .279/.356/.455 batting line with 31 homers across 1012 PAs in Triple-A.
- Right-hander Brandon Cunniff has been outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett by the Braves after clearing waivers, according to a tweet from the team. A former 27th-round draft pick by the Marlins, Cunniff spent three seasons in the independent Frontier League following his brief minor league career with the Marlins. The Braves plucked him from the indy circuit in June of 2013, and he rather quickly rose through their ranks over the past two years. Cunniff posted a brilliant 2.02 ERA in Double-A and jumped directly to the Majors, where he posted a 4.63 ERA with a 37-to-22 K/BB ratio in 35 innings.
- MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that outfielder Daniel Robertson has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A by the Mariners after being designated for assignment last week. Robertson lost his roster spot to the re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma but is clearly a player valued by GM Jerry Dipoto, who acquired him from Texas while serving as GM of the Angels and again picked him up from the Halos this winter after taking over the Mariners’ GM job. In 277 career plate appearances, Robertson is a .274/.324/.325 hitter. He also boasts a solid minor league track record and is capable of playing all three outfield positions, making him a valuable depth option for a big league team.
Nobuhiro Matsuda Likely To Stay In Japan
DEC. 23: Matsuda’s offer from the Hawks is a four-year deal worth $20-25MM in total, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). That’s a sizable offer that he seems unlikely to top in Major League Baseball based on the limited reports we’ve seen connecting him to big league clubs thus far. Crasnick tweeted earlier that Matsuda will hold a press conference in Japan within a few hours to address his plans for the 2016 season.
DEC. 22: Japanese third baseman Nobuhiro Matsuda was expected to crossover into MLB this winter and perhaps even net a multi-year contract. Apparently, however, he’s now leaning towards staying in Japan, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. The Fukuoka Softbank Hawks have offered the third baseman a five-year deal and he seems more likely to accept that than an MLB contract.
Matsuda had multiple MLB offers, according to Heyman, and the Padres were known to be a club with serious interest. Earlier this month, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said that the Padres could have been mulling a multi-year offer for the Japanese standout. The White Sox were also identified by Heyman as a club with interest, but that was before the team’s acquisition of Todd Frazier.
Matsuda, 32, is a career .277/.325/.477 hitter in Japan and is said to be capable of handling second base and third base from a defensive standpoint. As a free agent, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks did not have the ability to attach a release fee to Matsuda. Given his age, it seems unlikely that we’ll ever see Matsuda in the majors if he in fact inks a five-year deal without an MLB out.
Heyman On Royals’ Pursuit Of Alex Gordon, Rotation Help
The Royals have been told by Alex Gordon‘s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Heyman hears that Kansas City has only offered four years, noting that Jim Bowden reported at ESPN that the annual value of said offer is believed to be in the $12-13MM range.
With their chances of retaining Gordon looking slim, the Royals have begun to explore the market for alternatives, writes Heyman, including Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson and another player who was with Kansas City in 2015 — Alex Rios. Each of those players, with the exception of Parra, is a client of agent Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have negotiated a number of deals in recent seasons. Span, coming off hip surgery, is said to be hosting a showcase for interested on teams on Jan. 8 next month, while Parra reportedly already has three-year offers in hand but hopes to land a fourth year. Jackson and Rios have both been largely absent from the rumor circuit this offseason. Each is coming off a relatively disappointing year, though Jackson was more productive than Rios both at the plate and in the field.
Heyman also discusses Kansas City’s ongoing search for rotation help, noting that while lefty Wei-Yin Chen sits atop the team’s wish list, but they won’t go to six years for him or offer the five-year, $100MM contract that Chen is reportedly seeking. (I’d personally expect Chen and Gordon to ultimately command relatively similar contracts, so it stands to reason that both would be out of the Royals’ price range.) Heyman also mentions Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, each of whom has previously been linked to Kansas City. He also, however, adds Ian Kennedy‘s name to the list of players the Royals like.
The 31-year-old Kennedy hasn’t seen his name come up in many rumors this winter. He got off to a dreadful start in 2015, logging a 7.15 ERA through his first eight starts of the season. However, from June 1 moving forward, Kennedy righted the ship and recorded a 3.41 ERA with a 137-to-38 K/BB ratio in 129 1/3 innings across 22 starts. Though many were surprised to see Kennedy reject a qualifying offer — and that factor does figure to impact his market somewhat — he’s made at least 30 starts each season dating back to 2010, averaging 196 innings of 3.88 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in that time. As a fly-ball pitcher that is susceptible to home runs, Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium would seem, on paper, to be an excellent fit for Kennedy. Not only does the stadium have spacious dimensions, Kansas City’s incumbent center fielder, Lorenzo Cain, is among the game’s premier outfield defenders. And Jarrod Dyson, who could see a more regular role in the outfield corners next season, has registered outstanding defensive ratings in his limited role in previous seasons.
Nationals Have Spoken To Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy
The Nationals have had dialogue with the representatives for free-agent second basemen Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy, reports MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (Twitter link). The Nationals are known to be in search of second base upgrades, having recently embarked on an unsuccessful pursuit of a Brandon Phillips trade. Washington has also been connected to Kelly Johnson this offseason, although both Kendrick and Murphy would require considerably more significant commitments than Johnson in terms of both years and dollars.
Kendrick, 32, has been a consistently above-average offensive performer over the past five seasons, batting a combined .291/.337/.421 while averaging 14 homers and 13 steals per 162 games played. Kendrick has typically graded out as a plus defender at second base, but both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating were down on his work in 2015. It’s possible that a minor knee issue and a more significant hamstring issue, which cost him a month of the season, contributed to his diminished ratings. However, as a player who turns 33 next July, it’s also possible that Kendrick’s range has deteriorated. If that’s the case, a three- or four-year commitment for the former All-Star is a dangerous proposition, as Kendrick has always drawn a good bit of value from his glovework. Then again, he totaled 2.1 fWAR last season, so he’s still capable of delivering value even with lesser defensive returns. (Baseball-Reference, which uses DRS in its WAR equation, was less optimistic, rating Kendrick at 1.1 WAR.)
This isn’t the first time that Ladson has connected the Nationals to Murphy, though the mention of dialogue between the two sides is a step forward from Ladson’s previous report, in which he indicated that the Nationals were interested in Murphy but didn’t specify whether the two parties had spoken. The 30-year-old Murphy doesn’t have Kendrick’s defensive track record, but he’s been a comparable hitter over the past five seasons and is 18 months younger, so the Nationals would theoretically be buying more of his prime than they would with Kendrick. Murphy also brings something to the Nats that Kendrick cannot offer: a left-handed bat to balance out a highly right-handed lineup. Bryce Harper is the Nationals’ only left-handed-hitting regular in the lineup, which could leave the team susceptible to right-handed opponents. Murphy also showed considerably more power in 2015 than did Kendrick, clubbing 14 homers in the regular season before going on his notorious postseason power binge.
Adding either Kendrick or Murphy to the picture would allow the Nationals to give promising prospect Trea Turner some additional development time in the minor leagues, with Danny Espinosa opening the season at shortstop. Espinosa could then shift to a valuable utility role if and when Turner is ready, potentially spelling Murphy against tough left-handed pitching or serving as a late-game defensive upgrade over either free agent.
Pirates Sign John Jaso
4:03pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jaso will be guaranteed a total of $8MM over the life of the deal (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Jaso will earn $4MM in each season of the contract.
3:54pm: The Pirates announced that they have signed catcher/first baseman/outfielder John Jaso to a two-year contract. The ACES client will serve as the club’s left-handed half of a first-base platoon, pairing with Mike Morse and/or Jason Rogers to handle those duties.
“John Jaso is a proven Major League hitter who is a great complement to our existing lineup,” said GM Neal Huntington in the club’s press release. “John is enthusiastic about playing in Pittsburgh and developing as a first baseman. We feel he has the ability to play the position at the major league level, while adding significantly to our offensive production.”
Jaso is inexperienced at first base, to be sure, having logged just five innings there at the Major League level and a mere 15 more in the minor leagues. He’ll be learning on the fly, but he won’t have to develop into a plus defender at first base to serve as an upgrade over Pedro Alvarez‘s defense. Last season, Alvarez rated 14 runs below average according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, despite the fact that he logged just 906 innings at the position. Alvarez was charged with 23 errors in those 906 innings — the third-most of any player at any position in baseball. So, while Jaso will probably experience some growing pains as he learns the intricacies of a new position, the bar for improved defensive production, from the team’s standpoint, is a relatively low one to clear.
Clearly, Jaso wasn’t signed for his glove; he’ll bring to the Pirates a highly productive and exceptionally patient platoon bat to plug into their lineup. The 32-year-old batted .286/.380/.459 in 216 plate appearances in what was an injury-shortened 2015 campaign, with nearly all of his plate appearances coming against right-handed pitching. The Rays permitted Jaso to face a left-handed pitcher just 19 times in 2015, and he’s faced same-handed pitching just 75 times across the past three seasons combined. A platoon partner is a must for Jaso, who is just a .178/.309/.232 hitter against lefties. On the flip side, he boasts an excellent .274/.368/.429 batting line against righties and has been even better in recent seasons, slashing .285/.383/.458 against righties dating back to 2012.
That trait is particularly appealing to the Pirates because, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review points out (Twitter link), the Pirates led the Majors in plate appearances against right-handed pitching last season. While some of that is happenstance, looking around the projected rotations of their division rivals, the only lefties that figure to be in Opening Day rotations are Jon Lester, Jaime Garcia and possibly John Lamb/Brandon Finnegan in Cincinnati.
In addition to working at first base, Jaso could also see some time in the corner outfield, tweets MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Jaso has also told the club he’s willing to serve as their emergency catcher, per Berry, though first base and the outfield will be his two primary positions. That’s probably best for Jaso, who has been plagued by concussion issues in recent years, thus necessitating the move to outfield and designated hitter in recent seasons.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Claim Danny Reynolds From Dodgers
The Astros announced that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever Danny Reynolds off waivers from the Dodgers, who had previously designated the 24-year-old for assignment to clear room for lefty Tyler Olson.
Reynolds is making his way around the waiver wire right now, as he’s already gone from the Angels to the Dodgers via waiver claim, making Houston his third organization of the offseason. Last season, Reynolds, a former sixth-round pick of the Angels (2009), reached Triple-A in 2014 but spent the 2015 campaign back in Double-A, where he posted a 4.57 ERA with 10.4 K/9 vs. 5.8 BB/9 in 43 1/3 innings of relief. Reynolds’ strikeout rate has trended significantly upwards since he was moved from the rotation into the bullpen. The control issues he battled in 2015 were the first notable problems he’s had with walks as a professional, so the Dodgers will hope that they’re able to correct the situation in 2015 and get him back on track.