Quick Hits: Dodgers, Klentak, Vlad Jr., D’Backs
More and more teams are adopting the formula of hiring an Ivy League-educated, analytics-based GM and/or a veteran player as manager despite little or no coaching experience, a trend FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal finds a bit troubling. A specific hiring model may make it harder for minorities to make inroads into front office or managerial positions. Teams that rely too much on analytics could run into as many problems as front offices that are too “old-school,” while Rosenthal notes that several long-time coaches or managers may now find themselves frozen out of the job market simply because they’re not fresh faces.
Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into World Series week…
- While the Dodgers have some weak spots on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider link) argues that there is no need for the club to step back for a mini-rebuilding year in 2016. Los Angeles has won three straight NL West titles despite those flaws and has an ownership willing to spend record amounts, so Olney feels there’s no reason to waste a year of Clayton Kershaw‘s prime to retool.
- New Phillies GM Matt Klentak is profiled by Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, who speaks to Klentak’s old Dartmouth coach (Bob Whalen) and his old Angels colleague, director of baseball operations Justin Hollander.
- The Blue Jays expended quite a bit of their prospect capital in making the trades that helped them win the AL East, though GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Baseball America’s Alexis Brudnicki that he feels the farm system has already been replenished by new talent that has emerged. International signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most-touted new prospects in the system, and Anthopoulos notes that Guerrero has been working out at third base, a bit of a surprise since most pundits felt Guerrero’s body type would eventually see him in a corner outfield/first base/DH role down the road.
- The Diamondbacks have interviewed at least eight candidates in their search for a new pitching coach, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The list includes each of the pitching coaches from their full-season minor league affiliates, Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Gil Patterson and Athletics minor league pitching coordinator Garvin Alston. Piecoro isn’t sure if the D’Backs will look at any of the available veteran pitching coaches on the market, such as Mike Maddux or Rick Honeycutt.
World Series Notes: Royals, Mets, Rosters, Drafts
Very few pundits saw the Mets or (despite being defending AL champs) Royals reaching the Fall Classic, yet both teams are now preparing for Game 1 of the World Series. Here’s some info on both teams, looking back at how they got to the brink of a championship…
- It took a while for Dayton Moore’s rebuilding plan to show results, but the Royals GM tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he sees past mistakes as learning experiences that helped he and the club shape the current winning roster. Canny trades and free agent signings within the last year were a big part of Kansas City’s success, yet the fact that so many of the Royals are homegrown prospects who have spent years playing together is seen as a positive by manager Ned Yost. “They came up as a core, and they won championships in Double-A and Triple-A together….Having them experience that over the last five or six years, it just gives them a certain comfort level when you get into this type of position. They know each other. They all have the same goals and the same dreams and the same values. It just makes for a closer team,” Yost said.
- Over half of the Royals’ ALCS roster didn’t play for the team in last year’s World Series, The Associated Press’ Dave Skretta writes, a somewhat under-the-radar overhaul that mostly focused on adding a lot of new pitchers.
- Given how both teams looked to rebuild though young talent, it’s no surprise that many former blue-chip prospects are now playing key roles for the Royals and Mets, MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes. He lists the top 15 players in this World Series based on their original prospect status, with Alex Gordon leading the way.
- Game 1 will fall almost exactly five years after the day Sandy Alderson was hired as the Mets’ GM, and ESPN’s Adam Rubin looks at the tough road Alderson had to navigate, especially given the financial limitations on the franchise due to the Wilpon family’s losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal. The Mets’ big deadline trades and the Nationals’ surprising collapse opened the door for this season’s NL East title, and Rubin notes that Alderson also laid groundwork in the form of the Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran trade in 2011 and the deal that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey in early 2013. Alderson was also helped by several young players drafted under former GM Omar Minaya who are now franchise cornerstones.
Latest On Nationals’ Managerial Search
9:52pm: Black’s second interview will also take place on Monday, ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets.
2:53pm: Dusty Baker and Bud Black will indeed receive second interviews for the Nationals’ managerial vacancy and, at this point, it appears that one of the two will get the job, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes. “Barring something strange happening,” Heyman writes that it will be one of the two experienced candidates since they are the only finalists remaining.
Baker will interview on Monday while Black’s interview will also take place early this week. Heyman notes that GM Mike Rizzo has a preference for experienced managers, though he made an exception in the case of Matt Williams.
In 1362 career games as a manager, all with the Padres, Black totaled a record of 649-713 despite routinely having to work with one of baseball’s lowest payrolls. A pitching coach prior to his work as a manager, he drew praise for his work with many of San Diego’s young arms over the course of his career in the dugout.
As the manager of the Reds, Baker led the club to a 509-463 record and three playoff berths across six seasons. The 66-year-old is also a three-time NL Manager of the Year and led the 2002 Giants to the National League pennant. In total, Baker owns a 1671-1504 record as manager of the Giants, Cubs, and Reds.
The Nats conducted a wide-ranging search for the position with names such as Ron Gardenhire, Giants coach Ron Wotus, Dodgers coach Tim Wallach, Alex Cora, and Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin among those linked to the opening. Ex-Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly was conspicuously absent from their search and it doesn’t appear that Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. garnered consideration despite his stated interest in the job.
This Date In Transactions History: Starlin Castro
It was on this day in 2006 that a 16-year-old from Monte Cristi, Dominican Republic signed an amateur contract with the Cubs. Over the last decade, Starlin Castro has gone from being a prized prospect and “face of the franchise” stardom all the way to perhaps being becoming a symbol of the team’s rebuilding years rather than a cornerstone of their future.
Castro quickly rose through Chicago’s minor league system and debuted in the majors in 2010. At first, it seemed like Castro was a natural, posting a .755 OPS over 125 games in his rookie year and then hitting .307/.341/.432 (with a league-leading 207 hits) over 715 plate appearances in 2011. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer cleared the deck of several of the old regime’s players in their first year running the team, but they quickly locked up Castro, signing the shortstop to a seven-year, $60MM extension in August 2012.
While that extension has been widely debated in the last few years, at the time it was seen as a logical move for the Cubs. The deal gave them cost certainty over Castro, who was quickly going to become expensive due to an extra arbitration year as a Super Two player. The contract gave Chicago control over all four arb years, three free agent years and potentially a fourth, as per the $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season. With Castro enjoying another strong year in 2012, many pundits figured the Cubs were saving themselves money by locking up a young player at a premium position through his 20’s when his best years were theoretically ahead of him.
That investment, however, looks shakier now given how Castro’s inconsistent play over the last three seasons. Castro enjoyed a strong 2014 campaign that saw him hit .292/.339/.438 with 14 homers in 569 PA, but that was sandwiched between two poor seasons. Castro put up virtual replacement player numbers in 2013 (0.1 fWAR) and then last year hit .265/.296/.375 in 578 PA, losing his starting shortstop job to Addison Russell to boot.
Rumors of a position switch or a trade had swirled around Castro essentially ever since the Cubs acquired Russell from the A’s in the summer of 2014. Suddenly, the Cubs had a new blue-chip shortstop prospect to replace their old one, not to mention a young slugger of a middle infield option in Javier Baez. There was great speculation that Castro could be moved to clear a big contract and make way for the future, and it’s possible that a trade could still happen this winter.
That said, Castro’s move to second base turned his season around. He hit .236/.271/.304 in 435 PA from April 5 to August 6, exclusively playing shortstop. His first game at the keystone came on August 7, and Castro proceeded to slash a whopping .353/.373/.588 over his final 143 PA. With Baez still struggling to avoid strikeouts and fully harness his power on the Major League level, the Cubs may well decide to just keep Castro at second next year to either see what they have (with both he or Baez, as well) or at least give Castro more of a showcase should they pursue a midseason trade.
It will probably take more than 143 good plate appearances to convince another team to give up anything of major value since Castro is still owed at least $38MM over the next four years. That said, Castro is still only 25 and has three All-Star appearances under his belt. There are lots of teams in need of help at either middle infield position who could be willing to overlook Castro’s lack of plate discipline and shaky glove, at the right price.
The Cubs already tried to “aggressively” trade him at last summer’s trade deadline, so it remains to be seen if Castro will remain through this new era of competitive Cubs baseball, or if Castro may one day appear in a future This Date In Transactions History that details his move out of the Windy City.
NL Central Notes: Brewers, Cherington, Schwarber
The Brewers have told other teams that they’re open to hearing offers for anyone on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column. As Olney notes, this could make Jonathan Lucroy a potential trade candidate this winter, though obviously, “only in the right deal.” Lucroy’s name was mentioned in several trade rumors last summer since Milwaukee fell out of the pennant race so soon, though the Crew reportedly had no interest in dealing the catcher. New GM David Stearns could have a different perspective, however. In his recent Brewers Offseason Outlook piece, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth speculated about a possibly Lucroy trade, and also suggested that the club might wait for a midseason deal to allow Lucroy to rebuild some value after an injury-plagued and subpar 2015 campaign.
Here’s some more from the NL Central…
- Also from Olney’s post, he reports that the Pirates are in “informal discussions” with Ben Cherington about a possible front office job. Since stepping down as Boston’s general manager last summer, Cherington reportedly declined opportunities to interview for both the Mariners and Phillies GM jobs out of a desire to take some time away from the game. It’s fair to speculate that a position working under his friend Neal Huntington could be more attractive to Cherington than a return to the full-time grind of a GM position.
- Could the Cubs shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason? Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh explores the possibility, noting that the defensively-challenged Schwarber would be a good fit as an American League DH. The Rays and Indians are two clubs with a hole at DH and the young arms to offer the Cubs, who are openly looking to add pitching. While scouts are mixed at best about Schwarber’s ability to play catcher or left field over the long term, a trade may be unlikely given Schwarber’s already-impressive hitting potential. “He’s not attainable now,” one AL scout tells Lindbergh. “He still has a chance to hit .285 with 40 bombs. They’d be insane to trade that.” I tend to agree with the AL scout; Chicago would need a massive return to even consider moving Schwarber’s bat.
- Jason McLeod, Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting, spoke to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about a couple of Cardinals players who were well-liked by the Cubs and Red Sox when McLeod was running the drafts for those clubs in 2012 and 2008, respectively. “A lot of the teams that passed up on Michael Wacha, us included, probably kicked themselves,” McLeod said. St. Louis took Wacha with the 19th overall pick of the first round, while the Cubs (picking sixth) instead chose Albert Almora, who is a well-regarded 21-year-old prospect but has yet to play beyond the Double-A level. For Boston in 2008, Lance Lynn was “a guy we liked quite a bit; he was high up on our board.” The Sox instead took Casey Kelly with the 30th overall pick, leaving Lynn to be drafted by the Cards 39th overall.
- Also from Laurila’s piece, he cites the Reds‘ trade of Mat Latos to the Marlins for Anthony DeSclafani (and minor league Chad Wallach) as perhaps “the best under-the-radar trade of last offseason.” DeSclafani posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.75 K/BB rate and 7.4 K/9 over 184 2/3 innings in his rookie season, and looks to have solidly earned himself a spot in Cincinnati rotation.
East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Harvey, Red Sox
After being told he would not retain his job as manager, Dan Jennings was set to return to the Marlins last week to resume GM duties. However, Jennings had questions about his current role and responsibilities that president David Samson couldn’t immediately answer, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Samson has asked Jennings to stay home while he discusses the situation with owner Jeffrey Loria. The Marlins haven’t pulled their offer for Jennings to return as GM, Jackson writes, and he and Loria are expected to talk in the coming days. Jennings might have less influence in the front office than he did before, and that’s a result of Loria “listening to more voices.” In addition to president/baseball operations Michael Hill, farm system chief Marc Delpiano and execs Mike Berger and Jeff McAvoy also have sway.
Here’s more out of the East divisions..
- More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins’ payroll of $68MM “is expected to rise slightly” in 2016. In 2015, Miami had the lowest payroll in baseball.
- With whispers that the Mets will listen this winter on offers for their top three starters, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that it’s “not impossible” that New Englander Matt Harvey will end up in the Red Sox‘s rotation next season. Of course, there was more speculation surrounding Harvey’s Mets future during the innings-limit controversy and it’s hard to picture a deal happening as he gets set to take the hill in Game 1 of the World Series.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines that it’s fair to wonder if Andrew Friedman erred in not bringing Joe Maddon to the Dodgers after both men left the Rays. The Dodgers, of course, are searching for their next manager after parting ways with Don Mattingly.
AL East Notes: Greinke, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
Zack Greinke would fit the bill for the Red Sox this winter, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald wonders if Boston would be the best place for him. One source close to the pitcher speculated that Greinke “definitely wouldn’t want any more stress or additional media attention,” though that was only his assumption and not something he heard directly from the former Cy Young Award winner. One can’t help but speculate if Greinke, who has been diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and clinical depression, may prefer to pitch in a market with less pressure than Boston.
Here’s more out of the AL East..
- Tim Naehring has been “one of Brian Cashman’s most trusted advisors on players the Yankees look to trade for or sign as free agents,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes. In fact, King adds that the sight of Naehring at a game often leads outsiders to conclude that the Bombers have interest in at least one of the players on the field. On Saturday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Naehring would fill the vacancy left by former assistant GM Billy Eppler, though he will not take on that title.
- All of the deadline deals made by Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos ended up working out, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com writes. David Price proved to be the frontline starter the Blue Jays needed, Mark Lowe gave Toronto a boost in the bullpen, Ben Revere solved the team’s defensive woes in left field, and Troy Tulowitzki gave the club another dangerous bat when healthy.
- The Blue Jays could solve their rotation puzzle by plugging Roberto Osuna or Aaron Sanchez into the starting five, but they’d be better served to try and re-sign Price and Marco Estrada, Chisholm writes. Still, a reunion won’t come cheap, especially when it comes to Price. Earlier today, one AL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he could see Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- In celebration of Back to the Future Day, host Jeff Todd spoke with Back to the Future screenwriter and longtime Cardinals fan Bob Gale on the MLBTR podcast. A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- Two-time home run king Chris Davis is set to hit the free agent market and Tim Dierkes looked at his strengths and weaknesses in a comprehensive profile. Tim sees the Astros, Mariners, and Padres as some possible fits but he can also envision scenarios in which the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play.
- In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled and we could see more fall this offseason with nine potential $100MM free agents. Recently, Tim ran down the largest contract in franchise history for every MLB team.
- The Pirates will have to replace a number of key free agents and resolve several key arbitration cases this winter if they want to continue as contenders. Charlie Wilmoth looked at some of their offseason options.
- Mark Polishuk says that the Yankees might want to prioritize adding young depth to their veteran core rather than spending big on one free agent.
- Mark also examined Braves hurler Shelby Miller as a potential extension candidate. The 25-year-old hasn’t proven that he’s a frontline ace yet, but as a former consensus top-10 prospect, his very best baseball could still be in front of him.
- The Giants have money to spend on a pitching-heavy free agent market and Jeff looked at what else it will take for SF to get back to World Series contention. As Jeff notes, the team has a fair amount of cash on the books already for next year (about $120MM, before arb) and 2017 (~$73MM, pre-arb), but little thereafter.
- Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
- With Al Avila now atop the baseball operations pyramid, the Tigers will again act as buyers this winter in hopes of returning to the top of the AL Central, Steve Adams writes. The bullpen has been a problem area for Detroit over the years and Steve looked at several avenues the Tigers could take in order to correct their late-game pitching.
- MLBTR hosted chats on Wednesday (link) and Thursday (link).
David Ross Plans To Return To Cubs In 2016
Catcher David Ross told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he will return to the Cubs next season rather than retire. Ross, who turns 39 in March, has one more year to go on his contract.
“It was a great ride,” Ross said of the Cubs’ postseason run. “It’s more sad we didn’t play well and [the Mets] played great. A lot of positives as I look back, but thought we had a legit chance at the World Series. I really wanted to get [Jon] Lester and [Jake] Arrieta another start.”
Ross has never been known for his bat, but he still had a rough season even by those depressed standards. The veteran slashed .176/.267/.252 across 182 plate appearances on the year. However, the Cubs likely value Ross more for his defensive skills, veteran leadership, and his ability to work with the team’s pitchers when called upon. If the Cubs do not trade or release Ross, he’ll likely return to the team to serve as Miguel Montero‘s understudy. Meanwhile, the Cubs are still unsure of their future plans for Kyle Schwarber, who could wind up in the outfield or behind the plate.
Ross inked a two-year, $5MM deal with Chicago in December of 2014. The signing, presumably, was made in part because of Ross’ history with Lester.
Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches. It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.
“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”
Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.
Here’s more from today’s column..
- The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities. Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
- The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal. Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked. Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
- Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.” Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal. Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto. The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
- One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM. In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
- Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards. One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness. At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
- One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.” Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock. The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
- Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch. The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period. The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
- At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill‘s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real. One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
- Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer. The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached. In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.