Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag
We’ve revived the MLBTR Mailbag feature over the past couple of weeks, and it’ll be running every Monday from now on. Last week, the topics discussed included the KBO, next year’s Rangers rotation, the Reds’ needs, R.A. Dickey, and the American League rookie-of-the-year race. Later this afternoon, we’ll tackle another handful of questions.
If you have any questions you’d like to see addressed, you can email them here: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Feel free to send emails throughout the week, of course, but also be mindful of the fact that we receive a sizable number of questions and cannot get to all of them. You can always ask other questions in the weekly live chat every Tuesday afternoon.
2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
Welcome to the last in-season addition of our 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. We’ve been moving these pieces around since February, and the list continues to change with several players surging.
These rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. David Price. Even back in February, $200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price. The 30-year-old was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his new team. The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014. That contract includes an opt-out that could allow Kershaw to begin a new contract with his age 31 campaign. Since Price is already 30, agent Bo McKinnis may not need to push for such a clause.
2. Jason Heyward. Heyward’s strong season has continued since we last checked in on August 6th. Heyward gets on base, shows a touch of pop, and plays strong defense. It’s a valuable package. Since he turned 26 just last month, Heyward’s will be the rare free agent contract that includes mostly prime-age seasons. An eight-year deal would only take him through his age 33 season. As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted recently, an opt-out clause makes sense here.
3. Justin Upton. Upton hit .266/.382/.539 in 152 plate appearances since we last checked in, putting his oblique and thumb injuries behind him. Upton is one player where an opt-out clause seems especially valuable, because it still seems like he could take his game to another level. He’s a 28-home run guy who could become a 35-40 type, and would benefit from the chance to re-enter the market after three seasons. He could get a bigger deal at that point, since he recently turned 28. That could work out for the team too — sign him to an eight-year deal this winter but only have to pay for age 28-30.
4. Chris Davis. Davis can’t be contained, with 14 home runs in 35 games since we last checked in. He has 42 in all. Davis is five months younger than Yoenis Cespedes, and I’m starting to think he has slightly more earning power. It’s an interesting contrast. Davis seems a better bet for additional 35+ homer seasons, yet his rough 2014 season is hard to completely write off. Cespedes brings more defensive value, though his strong marks this year are out of the ordinary. Davis strikes out more, but walks more too. Both players will be vying for seven-year contracts with mid-$20MM salaries.
5. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes didn’t even crack my top ten in February, and now he’s ascended all the way up to fifth. Even when the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Mets on July 31st, he didn’t seem a good bet to finish with 30 home runs. Then he went and smacked 16 in 40 games for the Mets, and he now has an outside shot at 40 bombs. Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal from December 2013 is a good benchmark for Cespedes, who should get more. Cespedes’ contract was modified in September to allow the Mets to have a shot at retaining him.
6. Zack Greinke. Greinke ranked eighth on this list in February, when a five-year deal in the low-$100MM range seemed reasonable. Sitting on an MLB-best 1.61 ERA through 29 starts, it’s time to seriously consider a six-year contract. That’s a scary proposition, since he’s already 31, but the sixth year maximizes his total even if he backs off on the average annual value. Greinke should be able to get past the six-year, $155MM contract signed by Jon Lester last winter.
7. Alex Gordon. Gordon returned from an eight-week layoff on September 1st, having recovered from a groin injury. He says he feels 100%, and is now serving as the Royals’ leadoff hitter. Since he turns 32 in February, a six-year deal seems like the limit. I wonder if he can push his average annual value up to $25MM, netting $150MM in total.
8. Johnny Cueto. In our May power rankings, I gave consideration to putting Cueto ahead of Price, second overall. A July 26th trade from the Reds to the Royals seemed beneficial to Cueto, who became ineligible for a qualifying offer. Cueto began his Royals stint with a 1.80 ERA over 30 innings, but since then, the wheels have come off. He’s allowed 28 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings, including 48 hits of which eight left the park. His ERA has risen a full run in that time, from 2.46 to 3.47. Perhaps something is wrong physically; you may recall Cueto went 13 days between starts this summer due to a sore elbow.
This story isn’t complete yet. Cueto has three regular season starts left, and the Royals are going to the Division Series. Still, Cueto’s last five starts probably took a seven-year contract off the table, and now I’m wondering whether he’ll match Lester.
9. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a 2.66 ERA in seven starts since we last checked in, in what’s become another typically strong season from the 29-year-old righty. He seems on track to become the first Tommy John survivor to reach $100MM, and may actually pass $130MM on a six-year deal.
10. Mike Leake. Leake’s hold on this spot has grown more tenuous, as the righty spent a few weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury. Leake still has a shot at a five-year deal, as he doesn’t turn 28 until November.
Ian Desmond‘s season has been all over the map: he was decent in May, very good in August, and lousy otherwise. There’s no real trend except that it’s his worst season since 2011 despite 17 home runs and counting. I imagine some kind of four-year deal is in order, but this one is hard to peg.
Ben Zobrist is finishing strong, hitting .323/.398/.516 since joining the Royals in a July 28th trade. Since he turns 35 in May, a four-year deal will be the limit. Even that will be risky – it’s not like Victor Martinez’s contract is looking good.
Poll: Minor League Deal Of The Year
Every winter, a host of players agree to minor league contracts with hopes of finding good opportunities to make it onto a big league roster at some point in the season. Some of these are reached early on, as teams target players they like but who lack the track record to warrant a major league deal. Others are made just before Spring Training by players who had been holding out hope for a guaranteed contract.
In most cases, minor league signees provide depth and leadership in the upper minors. A good number of those players end up as solid role players on the major league roster, some more impactful than others. And every now and again, a high-end big league player emerges after inking a non-guaranteed contract. (E.g., J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner.)
This year’s MiLB free agent crop didn’t produce any controllable standouts in the mold of Martinez and Turner, but it was loaded with quality players who have delivered immense value to their teams. Who gets your vote as the best of the year?
(Teams listed are original signing clubs. Players ordered alphabetically by last name. Did I miss someone? Choose “Other” and discuss in the comments.)
Joe Blanton, Royals — After appearing in just two minor league games last year, the 34-year-old righty was surprising enough when putting up solid results for Kansas City. But he’s been even better for the Pirates, firing 26 frames from the pen with a 31:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and just four earned runs.
Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners — He hasn’t had much big league time, but the 32-year-old slashing a ridiculous .309/.358/.647 in 148 MLB plate appearances and was hitting quite well at Triple-A before that. He’ll be quite an interesting free agent to watch, though of course his .357 BABIP and (especially) 36.4% home run-to-flyball ratio are bound to fall.
Kelly Johnson, Braves — Johnson has been steady and productive since signing with Atlanta and moving to the Mets via trade. Filling in all over the diamond, Johnson has provided his clubs with flexibility and a .270/.319/.456 slash in 308 trips to the plate.
Mark Lowe, Mariners — A relatively undistinguished reliever for most of his career, Lowe transformed into a stud this year in Seattle. He hasn’t been quite as good since being shipped to the Jays, but still owns a 1.63 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 49 2/3 frames.
Ryan Madson, Royals — Madson, 34, had not even pitched in the big leagues since 2011 when he came to K.C., yet he picked up right where he left off. All told, he’s contributed 54 2/3 innings with a 2.47 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.
Franklin Morales, Royals — Notice a theme here? Another bargain bin score for a bullpen that hardly needed any help, the southpaw Morales has tossed 58 innings of 2.79 ERA ball. He’s been particularly stingy against opposing lefties, but has also held righties to below-league-average batting results.
Clint Robinson, Nationals — Unlike the other players on this list, Robinson had virtually no track record in the big leagues coming into the year. While his outfield defense has been predictably poor, it’s not really his fault that the club was forced to use him out of position. Robinson has been a revelation on offense, slashing .272/.368/.423 over 277 plate appearances.
Geovany Soto, White Sox — It was somewhat surprising to see the veteran Soto fail to earn a big league contract, and he’s shown why in Chicago. With well-rated defense and a .237/.321/.444 slash over his 191 plate appearances, Soto has been worth about a win and a half above replacement despite limited duty — and that’s before factoring in his strong framing numbers.
Carlos Villanueva, Cardinals — Targeted by St. Louis because of his swingman capabilities, Villanueva has not been needed as a starter but has excelled in the pen. He sits with a sub-3.00 ERA over 57 1/3 innings, with 8.2 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Minor League Free Agent Of The Year
-
Kelly Johnson 23% (1,476)
-
Ryan Madson 18% (1,164)
-
Mark Lowe 13% (848)
-
Franklin Gutierrez 11% (721)
-
Joe Blanton 10% (617)
-
Carlos Villanueva 9% (560)
-
Clint Robinson 6% (358)
-
Geovany Soto 4% (261)
-
Franklin Morales 4% (236)
-
Other 3% (217)
Total votes: 6,458
Quick Hits: Free Agents, Heyward, Cespedes, Greinke
In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives. All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players. Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal. I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract. Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…
- Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings. His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years. This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract. Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
- Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs. Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes. Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract. All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
- Zack Greinke‘s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
- In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors. The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department. Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
- Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set. Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
- Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs. “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said. “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch. He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.” The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.
NL West Notes: Ziegler, Aoki, Maurer
Some news from around the NL West…
- Dave Stewart still has to discuss Brad Ziegler‘s $5.5MM 2016 option with upper management, but the Diamondbacks GM tells Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic that he’s in favor of retaining the veteran reliever. “Assuming he is healthy and he continues down the path he’s on right now, I don’t see why we would not pick up his option,” Stewart said. Ziegler’s $5.5MM club option has a $1MM buyout, so it’s a $4.5MM decision on a pitcher who is likely to return to a setup role given how the Snakes have been rumored to be looking for a major bullpen addition like Aroldis Chapman. Ziegler has a 2.37 ERA, 1.82 K/BB rate and 4.6 K/9 over 60 2/3 innings, plus 25 saves since taking over the closer’s job. For his part, the righty says he’s interested in returning to Arizona next season.
- Nori Aoki is also hoping his team picks up their club option on his 2016 services, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes. The Giants have a $5.5MM option on Aoki for next season, with a $700K buyout. Aoki was hitting .317/.383/.385 when he fractured his fibula in late June, and after a five-week DL stint, he’s struggled at the plate and with further injuries, including a concussion that may end his season. I would suspect that Aoki will indeed return to San Francisco next year given how well he was playing when healthy, though obviously it depends on when and if he he recovers from post-concussion syndrome.
- The Padres face an interesting decision on whether to keep Brandon Maurer in the bullpen or shift him back to starting pitching next year, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Assistant GM Josh Stein said the club has discussed making Maurer a starter again, a move that could help keep the right-hander healthy. On the flip side, Maurer has pitched well in relief. The Padres look to have openings in both the rotation and bullpen in 2016 so their decision on Maurer could help shape their offseason plans (or vice versa).
NL Central Links: Brewers, Happ, Cervelli
Here’s the latest from around the NL Central…
- The Brewers may not add any free agent arms this winter, let alone big-name pitchers, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. Recent signings Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse were all unable to pitch effectively throughout the entirety of their multi-year deals with the Crew, and Matt Garza may be the latest signing to not make a full return on his contract given his rough 2015 numbers. The Brewers could rely on internal pitching options for next year’s rotation and since contending in 2016 will be a tall order, signing a top free agent starter (such as Wisconsin native Jordan Zimmermann) isn’t happening.
- Also from Haudricourt’s piece, he notes that next year’s Brewers payroll will be “down significantly” from its $102MM figure this season. “Principal owner Mark Attanasio has shown he is willing to go the extra mile financially when his team is in contending mode but otherwise has said many times he won’t spend just to spend,” Haudricourt writes, and thus a payroll cut seems imminent with the club entering a rebuild phase.
- J.A. Happ was a fairly unheralded trade deadline pickup but he’s pitched like an ace since joining the Pirates, to the point of outshining almost all the big-name pitchers who changed teams in July. Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looks at why Happ has blossomed since coming to Pittsburgh to the tune of a 1.79 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 6.00 K/BB rate over 40 1/3 innings.
- Speaking of unheralded Pirates acquisitions, Francisco Cervelli has been more than just a suitable replacement for Russell Martin, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Cervelli’s 3.5 fWAR is the second-highest of any catcher in baseball, behind only Buster Posey (5.6) and well ahead of Martin (3.0). Cervelli has stayed healthy and contributed at the plate, while Sawchik also looks at how Cervelli has developed and adjusted his elite pitch-framing skills.
- Cody Stanley‘s 80-game PED suspension could threaten his future with the Cardinals, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. GM John Mozeliak said he and the organization will “look at our options” before deciding whether or not to keep the young catcher. “He clearly was having a nice year and we thought enough of him to bring him up. To everybody involved, it’s disappointing,” Mozeliak said. Stanley, a fourth-rounder from the 2010 draft, was ranked by Baseball America as the 22nd-best prospect in the Cards’ organization prior to the season, though given the depth of St. Louis’ system and the two PED suspensions now on Stanley’s record, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club cut ties with him.
Troy Tulowitzki To Miss At Least Two Weeks With Cracked Shoulder Blade
SUNDAY: The team “is cautiously optimistic” that Tulowitzki can return in two-to-three weeks, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reports, including the National Post’s John Lott. The shortstop’s progress over the next few days will better determine his future status, as Anthopoulos noted that “there’s a lot of bleeding internally that needs to subside at this point” and there’s no set recovery time since different people heal at different rates from such injuries.
SATURDAY, 7:36pm: Tulowitzki has been diagnosed with a small crack to his left scapula, tweets Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. He also has upper back muscle bruising. The timetable for his return is unknown, but the loss is certainly a blow to the club. Cliff Pennington is likely to start in his absence.
4:25pm: Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki left the first game of a doubleheader against the Yankees on Saturday with an unknown injury, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm and others report. Tulowitzki collided with teammate Kevin Pillar while catching a popup, then toppled backward strangely. He walked off the field without assistance. X-rays on Tulowitzki’s back and ribs came back negative, although Tulowitzki was also scheduled to undergo an MRI on his upper back, the results of which won’t be available until tomorrow. He is currently day-to-day. Tulowitzki has, of course, dealt with injuries throughout his big-league career, including injuries to his wrist, groin, rib and hip.
Obviously, a significant injury to Tulowitzki would be a blow to the Jays, who are trying to hold off the Yankees and win the AL East. The Jays are very well positioned for a playoff berth no matter what, but they’re only two and a half games up in their division. Tulowitzki hasn’t hit exceptionally well (.234/.316/.370) since arriving from Colorado in a high-profile trade near the deadline, but the Jays are 29-9 in games he’s played for them.
Astros Notes: Gomez, Appel, Fields
Houston beat Huston today, as the Astros staged an improbable ninth-inning comeback against Angels closer Huston Street. Brought on to protect a 3-0 lead, Street looked like he was en route to a routine save after he got the first two outs, but the Astros then roared back for five runs. Jed Lowrie delivered a pinch-hit three-run homer that ended up as the difference in the 5-3 victory. It was a much-needed win for the Astros, who retained their 1.5-game lead in the AL West over the Rangers just before the two teams meet for a huge four-game series in Arlington beginning Monday. Here’s some more from Minute Maid Park…
- Carlos Gomez missed today’s game due to what the team described as left intercostal discomfort and he’s heading to Houston to be examined by team doctors and undergo an MRI (as reported by several Astros beat writers, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich). Gomez will miss Monday’s game with the Rangers though he’s hopeful of not being out for much longer than that. Gomez’s health, of course, has already made headlines this season when the Mets backed out of an agreed-upon trade to acquire Gomez from the Brewers due to concerns about Gomez’s hip. More related to stomach muscles, he also underwent an MRI for a possible abductor issue earlier this summer. The Astros stepped in to acquire Gomez instead, though he hasn’t played up to his usual standards; the outfielder is hitting .234/.282/.379 over 158 PA for Houston.
- The Astros are succeeding in 2015 and if you told someone two years ago that No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel would not be a part of that upswing, they would have been pretty surprised. Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle spoke with Appel’s agent, Scott Boras, who says that his client is progressing just fine in the minors. “You hope each year in a player’s career, they progress and you can certainly say he did that,” Boras said. “He moved to a new level and performed well and I think he feels very confident about coming to camp (in 2016) and competing..Look, every player’s different. He’s a big guy. And … new to pro baseball. But getting control of those limbs, that body takes time — and it takes professional seasoning.” Appel posted a 4.48 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 12 Triple-A starts and a 4.26 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 13 starts at Double-A.
- Another Boras client, Josh Fields, was the victim of a roster crunch when he was optioned to the minors on August 20 and Boras didn’t hide his frustration over the demotion in his chat with Drellich. “A lot of organizations are doing that now. It’s hard, it’s hard on [veteran] players, because they have options left because they were successful when they signed and got up to the big leagues right away,” Boras said. “When teams have roster limits, they choose those guys. So it’s kind of an unfortunate circumstance of an organization with a lot of talent.” Fields had a 2.20 ERA and 54 strikeouts (to just 15 walks) over 41 innings when he was demoted and was hit hard in his first two outings since being recalled, giving up seven ER in just 1 1/3 innings.
Marlins Likely To Tender Alvarez; Not Crow
At this point, the Marlins are leaning towards tendering an offer to pitcher Henderson Alvarez, Barry Jackson of Miami Herald reports. However, Jackson writes that it is “less likely” that Miami extends an offer to reliever Aaron Crow.
Alvarez, Jackson writes, could be due to earn about $4MM in arbitration. The club’s decision, unsurprisingly, will come down to his medicals before the December tender deadline. For his part, Alvarez believes he’ll be ready to pitch by February 2016. The 25-year-old underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a tear in his right shoulder in late July, ending his season prematurely. He was Miami’s Opening Day starter, but wound up finishing the 2015 season with just 22 1/3 innings, four starts, and a dismal 6.45 ERA under his belt.
Originally acquired from the Blue Jays in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle/Josh Johnson blockbuster in the 2012-13 offseason, Alvarez looked to be an increasingly important member of the Marlins’ rotation in 2013-14, as he tossed 102 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball in 2013 and showed improved results (2.65 ERA) with an increased workload (187 2/3 innings) in 2014. The young righty’s season-ending no-hitter served as one of the bright spots to the 2013 campaign for the Marlins.
On April 7th of this year, Crow learned that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Marlins sent left-hander Brian Flynn and minor league righty Reid Redman to the Royals to acquire Crow over the winter, but the former first-round pick didn’t get to throw a pitch in his new environment in 2015. Crow delivered generally strong ERA and strikeout marks for the Royals from 2011-13, working exclusively out of the bullpen, but he struggled in 2014; Crow’s ERA spiked to a career-worst 4.12, and he posted the worst K/9 (5.2) and ground-ball (43.2%) marks of his career. Miami acquired Crow in the hope that it was buying low on a previously successful reliever with two years of team control remaining. However, it sounds like his time in Miami might be coming to a close.
Follow MLB Trade Rumors On Instagram
Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.
Recently, we cast Matt Harvey as Batman and asked readers if “The Dark Knight” will rise for the postseason. Then, late last week, we featured some of the possible candidates for the Phillies’ GM job and asked you to pick who you think would be best for the gig.
So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!