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Brewers Considering Brice Turang At Shortstop, Joey Ortiz At Second Base

By Mark Polishuk | March 15, 2025 at 11:58am CDT

Once Willy Adames officially ended his Brewers tenure by signing with the Giants, the conventional wisdom was that Joey Ortiz would move from third base take over the shortstop position, as Ortiz had been a standout defensive shortstop during his time in the Orioles’ farm system.  Indeed, Ortiz got the bulk of looks at shortstop for most of Spring Training, but in recent days, the Brewers have been going with a new alignment of Ortiz at second base, and Brice Turang moving from the keystone over to shortstop.

Manager Pat Murphy stressed that the situation was still very much in flux, telling MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reports that “We haven’t made a final decision.  I haven’t made a final decision.  I really believe in looking at all of it, taking in all the information and listening to others.  I was dead set on, ’Turang is going to be our second baseman, and Ortiz can handle short.’ I still believe that.  But, then we toyed with this new setup and I was like, ’This might be better for everybody.’ ”

There is nothing stopping the experimentation from continuing into the regular season, though McCalvy writes that the team wants “Turang and Ortiz set at their positions as much as possible, rather than moving around.”  Milwaukee used 108 different defensive lineups during the 2024 season, yet the cornerstones of that shifting lineup were Adames at shortstop, Turang at second base, William Contreras at catcher, and Ortiz with 124 of the starts at third base.  Ortiz did make six appearances at second base last year, as well as one appearance as a shortstop.

Turang was a Gold Glove and Platinum Glove winner last season as a second baseman, with public defensive metrics (+22 Defensive Runs Saved, +6 Outs Above Average, +2.1 UZR/150) all wowed by his work at the position.  Ortiz was also excellent at third base, posting +8 DRS, +11 OAA, and a +5.0 UZR/150 in 1098 1/3 innings at the hot corner.  Against this backdrop of success, the Brewers naturally face some risk in rocking the boat too much on what is already a strong defensive alignment, even if there seems to be little doubt that Turang or Ortiz would adapt well to new positions.

In explaining why Ortiz might be an ideal fit at second base, Murphy noted that “We ask our second basemen to do a lot.  What I mean by that is when you play the middle of the diamond the way we play our second basemen for most all right-handed hitters, and the ground we ask them to cover, it’s not too awfully different than short.  The number of times you end up throwing a ball from the outfield to a base, the number of times you end up directing a ball in a first-and-third steal situation, the number of times you wind up touching the ball because you’re turning two.”

As for third base, Oliver Dunn has been making a strong bid for the job with a big Cactus League performance.  Dunn made his MLB debut last season and hit .221/.282/.316 over 104 plate appearances, playing primarily as a third baseman before a back injury cut short his season in mid-June.

Dunn is a left-handed hitter, so Caleb Durbin (acquired from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade) was thought to be the top candidate for at least a platoon role at the hot corner.  However, Durbin hasn’t hit much this spring, while an unheralded option in Vinny Capra has been tearing the cover off the ball.  Capra has a .439 OPS over all of 37 career PA at the big league level, and his .271/.366/.384 career slash line in 984 Triple-A plate appearances is uninspiring but respectable.  Because Capra is out of minor league options, the Brewers would have to sneak him through waivers in order to send him down to Triple-A, which might help his chances of breaking camp with the team if the decision is made to give Durbin more seasoning in the minors.

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Milwaukee Brewers Brice Turang Joey Ortiz

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Brandon Nimmo Limited By Right Knee Soreness

By Mark Polishuk | March 15, 2025 at 10:27am CDT

Brandon Nimmo played in his second Spring Training game on Thursday, serving the Mets’ designated hitter against the Red Sox.  It was Nimmo’s first on-field action in over a week, as right knee soreness and a gel injection to battle inflammation kept the outfielder on the sidelines.  The Mets were already taking Nimmo’s ramp-up slowly in a nod to the plantar fasciitis issue that bothered him for much of 2024, yet Nimmo told the New York Post’s Dan Martin and other reporters that his left foot is no longer much of a concern, or at least less of a concern than his knee.

In terms of what created the knee issue, Nimmo feels a swing adjustment he made this spring added some extra stress on his joint.  He also cited some longstanding MCL and cartilage damage based on a torn ACL Nimmo suffered 15 years ago when he was a high school football player.  While Nimmo has had plenty of injury problems during his baseball career, his right knee has been pretty stable until now.

At the moment, Nimmo said he is only able to run at about 80 percent of his normal level.  “For sure, there’s definitely still some soreness [and] still some pain when I get above those levels,” Nimmo said.  “We try to keep things at a controlled level of pain.  Up to a certain threshold is OK, but if you go much past that, then you do more damage than you’re trying to gain.”

The plan is for Nimmo to get into the “90-95 percent” range before he starts to focus on more high-impact outfield activity, beyond tracking balls and other light drills.  Anything less, and Nimmo feels he could be putting both his knee and the Mets’ outfield defense at risk.  In terms of overall readiness, both Nimmo and manager Carlos Mendoza were cautiously optimistic that Nimmo should be ready for Opening Day in at least a DH capacity.

The Mets have already been hit hard by injuries this spring, as Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil will all start the season on the injured list, and Nick Madrigal’s season has probably already been ended by shoulder surgery.  A DH-only version of Nimmo wouldn’t help with this lack of depth, though Jesse Winker or Tyrone Taylor could step into left field in the interim.  If Nimmo is limited just to DH, however, it could crowd Starling Marte out of more at-bats.

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New York Mets

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Latest On Erik Swanson

By Mark Polishuk | March 15, 2025 at 9:00am CDT

Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson is dealing with a median nerve entrapment in his throwing arm, as the Jays announced to MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters yesterday.  Swanson received a cortisone shot to deal with the issue, and won’t throw for a few days while the shot takes effect.

It still seems likely that this setback is enough to put Swanson on the injured list at the beginning of the season, as was related last week when Swanson reported discomfort in his throwing elbow.  An MRI came back clean without any sign of structural damage, so Swanson has at least avoided any kind of longer-term elbow problem.

A median nerve entrapment (which is related to carpal tunnel syndrome) isn’t exactly a small matter since nerve issues have no set recovery timeline.  On the plus side, there hasn’t been any indication that Swanson might miss any great amount of time, even if a more concrete plan might not be known until the right-hander starts throwing again.

Acquired from the Mariners in the 2022-2023 offseason, Swanson was outstanding in his first year in Toronto, but injuries contributed to a rough start to his 2024 campaign.  Swanson dealt with some forearm tightness during last year’s Spring Training and a subsequent IL stint delayed his start to the season, and he then struggled so badly over his first 18 appearances that he was sent to Triple-A.  Swanson returned to the big leagues after the All-Star break and then seemed like his old self, making for some rather glaring splits — a 9.20 ERA in 14 2/3 innings in the first half and a 2.55 ERA over 24 2/3 frames in the second half.

Given the dismal state of Toronto’s bullpen last season, the Blue Jays badly need Swanson to stay healthy and fully bounce back to his past form as a key setup man.  New signing Jeff Hoffman looks to be in line for the closer’s job, with Chad Green, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin, and Swanson all lined up for high-leverage work.

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Toronto Blue Jays Erik Swanson

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Matt Waldron Suffers Oblique Strain, May Begin Season On IL

By Mark Polishuk | March 15, 2025 at 7:46am CDT

Right-hander Matt Waldron sustained a mild oblique strain yesterday, Padres manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters.  Waldron suffered the injury while warming up in the bullpen for a scheduled relief appearance in the Padres’ Cactus League game.

While Waldron is officially considered day-to-day, Shildt said the knuckleballer is “going to need some rest for some period of time, which will be determined.”  Simply given the nature of oblique injuries and the timing, Shildt admitted that Waldron’s chances of making the Opening Day roster “would seem like it would be in jeopardy.”

The news would seem to erase any chance Waldron had of winning the fifth spot in San Diego’s rotation.  An 8.68 ERA over 9 1/3 spring innings wasn’t helping his cause, and Waldron’s planned usage out of the pen on Friday might’ve hinted that the Padres were considering a long relief role for the right-hander.  Naturally the first order of business will simply be for Waldron to get healthy, giving the team time to decide whether Waldron could be used as a reliever, or as a Triple-A depth starter.

Waldron has worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors since the Padres acquired him in the 2020-21 offseason, and he has started 32 of his 35 career MLB games, posting a 4.79 ERA over his 188 innings in the Show.  Injuries within the Padres’ rotation opened the door for Waldron to get a good amount of playing time, including 146 2/3 frames last season, though a 12.76 ERA over his last four starts suggested that Waldron ran into some fatigue.

Assuming a late trade doesn’t change the equation, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, and Nick Pivetta are slated to be the Padres’ top four starters.  Stephen Kolek, Randy Vasquez, and Kyle Hart are the remaining candidates for the fifth starter’s job now that Waldron has seemingly been removed from the competition.

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San Diego Padres Matt Waldron

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Rays Exercise 2026 Club Option On Yandy Díaz, Add 2027 Vesting Option

By Darragh McDonald | March 14, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The Rays and Yandy Díaz have worked out a mini extension of sorts. The club announced that it has preemptively picked up his 2026 club option, which is valued at $12MM, while adding a club/vesting option for 2027. Díaz, an ACES client, would reportedly vest the ’27 provision at $13MM if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2026. If he doesn’t hit that vesting threshold, it would be a $10MM team option with no buyout.

Back in January of 2023, the Rays and Díaz agreed to a three-year, $24MM extension with a club option for 2026. He had just had his first arbitration season in 2022 and he was set to go through the process twice more. That deal bought out those two final arb years and one free agent year, while the option gave the Rays the chance to extend their window of control with Díaz by yet another season. He made $6MM in 2023, $8MM last year and will be making $10MM this year. The 2026 club option was set at $12MM with no buyout.

Over the course of the deal, Díaz has continued to hit, though the first year was far better than the second. In 2023, he hit 22 home runs and slashed .330/.410/.522 for a wRC+ of 163. His .367 batting average on balls in play was helping him out a bit, but he drew walks at a 10.8% clip and only struck out 15.7% of the time. Last year, his walk rate fell to 8.1% and he only hit 14 homers. His BABIP normalized somewhat to .314. The result was a .281/.341/.414 line and 120 wRC+. His defensive grades at first base also slid a bit. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 5.0 wins above replacement in 2023 but just 1.9 fWAR last year.

Díaz is now 33 years old and will turn 34 in August. The Rays could have waited to see how he performed in 2025 before picking up the 2026 option. By locking it in now, they’re getting a potential club option for the following season at a similar salary.

Díaz is perhaps sacrificing a bit of future earning power, but the trade-off for doing so is that he’s guaranteeing himself another $12MM today. That would protect him against a further decline in performance during the 2025 season. Under his previous contract structure, a bad 2025 campaign would have led to his option being declined and him heading to free agency with no buyout. Now he has the $12MM already locked in.

Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times first reported the news and the contract terms.

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Newsstand Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Yandy Diaz

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No Extension Talks Thus Far Between A’s, Mason Miller

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2025 at 11:54pm CDT

The A’s have handed out two of the largest extensions in franchise history in recent months. They inked DH Brent Rooker to a five-year, $60MM guarantee in January. Earlier this week, they finalized a seven-year deal with outfielder Lawrence Butler that guarantees $65.5MM.

It’s possible that the Butler deal is the first of multiple A’s extensions in Spring Training. General manager David Forst told Evan Drellich of The Athletic a couple weeks ago that the team had opened talks with a few players. With Butler signed, closer Mason Miller should arguably be the team’s top extension candidate.

Miller told Foul Territory’s A.J. Pierzynski on Friday afternoon that he’s open to talks but hasn’t heard from the team about the possibility. The A’s control the hard-throwing reliever for another five seasons. Miller will qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. He’d go through that process four times unless he signs an extension.

The A’s may not be eager to commit to a reliever, even one as dominant as Miller, whom they already have under control for a half-decade. There’s downside associated with the general volatility of relief pitching. Miller’s stuff is so exceptional that he’s a safer bet than almost any reliever to remain effective, but there’s more of a risk from a health perspective. He battled shoulder and elbow injuries and pitched fewer than 40 innings in the minor leagues.

[Related Front Office Post: Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?]

Forearm tightness wiped out most of his ’23 season and was the main reason the A’s moved him out of the rotation during the 2023-24 offseason. Miller stayed healthy last year aside from an incident where he fractured the pinkie on his left (non-throwing) hand, which reportedly occurred when he hit a training table in frustration after a poor outing. That’s presumably not a concern moving forward, but as baseball’s hardest thrower, he certainly puts a lot of stress on his elbow and shoulder.

There have been a handful of extensions for relief pitchers in the 1-2 year service bucket. Miller would almost certainly look to set a new standard for that class if the A’s were interested in an extension. Emmanuel Clase’s five-year, $20MM guarantee is the current record. That deal, which was signed in April 2022, included a pair of $10MM club options to extend Cleveland’s control window by two seasons. Clase was coming off an outstanding first full season, turning in a 1.29 ERA with 24 saves and 74 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings. Miller struck out 104 hitters with a 2.49 earned run average over 65 frames last season. He went 28-31 in save chances.

Clase’s deal is a three-year old precedent that has turned into an extremely team-friendly contract. Clase also wasn’t on track to reach Super Two status, which meant he was two years from arbitration and had a much lower earning power through that process. Arbitration salaries escalate annually, and Super Two qualification sets a higher baseline for future raises. Clase didn’t have Miller’s injury history, but the Cleveland closer had served a performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2020 that added a different risk to his profile.

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Athletics Mason Miller

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Sean Burke To Open Season In White Sox’s Rotation

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2025 at 10:35pm CDT

White Sox manager Will Venable informed the beat this afternoon that rookie righty Sean Burke will be in the season-opening rotation (relayed by Scott Merkin of MLB.com). The former third-round pick joins Martín Pérez, Davis Martin and Jonathan Cannon as locks for the Opening Day starting staff.

Chicago optioned lefty Jared Shuster, who had entered camp as a candidate for a rotation spot. The former first-round pick worked mostly in long relief last season but was building back up as a starter this spring. Venable suggested Shuster may move back to the bullpen in Triple-A (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of The Chicago Sun-Times). The Wake Forest product allowed nine runs in seven innings.

Pérez, who signed a $5MM free agent deal, has by far the most experience of anyone in Chicago’s rotation. Cannon, who worked to a 4.49 ERA over 124 1/3 frames, is the only returning pitcher who reached even 75 MLB innings last season. Martin returned from Tommy John surgery in the second half. He allowed 4.32 earned runs per nine over 50 innings down the stretch.

That trio entered camp with rotation spots solidified. It was more in question whether Burke would break camp. The Sox called him up midway through September. He impressed over four appearances, working to a 1.42 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 19 innings. The Maryland product has tossed five innings of three-run ball with three strikeouts and walks apiece this spring. Burke fanned 31% of batters faced over 16 Triple-A starts last season. He also walked 13% of opponents, raising questions about whether he’ll have the necessary command to stick as a starter, but the Sox will see how his stuff plays against MLB hitters.

Venable hasn’t committed to a fifth starter. With Shuster out of consideration, that job will probably fall to one of Bryse Wilson or Shane Smith. Wilson is out of options and has plenty of experience working in long relief. He turned in a 4.04 ERA over 103 2/3 frames for Milwaukee last season; Chicago signed him to a $1.05MM deal after the Brewers non-tendered him. Smith is a Rule 5 pick out of the Milwaukee system. The 6’4″ righty started 16 of 27 Double-A appearances. He allowed 3.08 earned runs per nine with a near-30% strikeout rate over 87 2/3 innings.

Smith has had a decent start to camp. He has fanned nine hitters over 6 2/3 frames, allowing four runs. Chicago shouldn’t have an issue keeping him on the MLB roster to gain his long-term contractual rights. Most Rule 5 pitchers work in low-leverage relief, at least to begin the season. An Opening Day rotation assignment would be rare, but that’s a reflection of the Sox’s lack of starting pitching depth. Non-roster invitee Justin Dunn could also be an option. He has managed eight innings of one-run ball this spring, but he only has two strikeouts against four walks.

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Chicago White Sox Jared Shuster Jonathan Cannon Martin Perez Sean Burke

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Rays Have Pitched Major Renovations/10-Year Lease Extension At Tropicana Field

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2025 at 9:26pm CDT

The Rays’ long-term home is in doubt after the team pulled out of plans for a $1.3 billion new stadium in St. Petersburg. The future is unclear, as St. Petersburg and Pinellas County officials have expressed frustration with Rays owner Stuart Sternberg.

John Romano and Colleen Wright of The Tampa Bay Times report that the Rays, within the past month, have floated the idea of renovating Tropicana Field beyond the roof repair. Under that plan, the team, city and county would contribute an equal sum — reportedly $200MM each — for large-scale renovations of their longtime home park. According to the report, the Rays would have agreed to a 10-year lease extension to remain at the Trop through 2038 in that scenario.

The city and county were not immediately keen on the idea. The Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field runs through 2028. It had initially been scheduled to expire in ’27, but it was extended by a year after hurricane damage left the stadium unplayable this season. The city, as lessor, is responsible for fixing the Trop after the hurricane ripped off its roof. The Rays are hopeful those repairs will be complete in time for the 2026 season. The city estimated the repair costs at $55.7MM.

Clearly, a $600MM renovation would go far beyond that. It makes little sense for anyone involved to make that commitment for three years, so it’d necessarily be paired with a lease extension. St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch said yesterday that he “(has) no interest in working with this ownership group” after their decision to pull out of the stadium deal. Regarding the idea of a lease extension, he told The Tampa Bay Times that the city is “looking at a number of options but I don’t want to talk about, at this point, this notion of a 10- or 15-year extension at the Trop.”

Welch left the door open for reconsidering that idea in the future, saying he’d “talk with the council and with the community about the paths forward” once the Rays officially decline the current stadium deal. While the team has already made clear it’ll do so, the Rays need to sign an official termination letter on that project or wait for the bond approval to expire on March 31 (the date for the team to hit construction benchmarks to keep the public funding alive).

Rays team president Matt Silverman reiterated yesterday that the team is not for sale. He said they could reopen discussions with the City of Tampa and Hillsborough County after March 31. Silverman told Romano and Wright today that a lease extension at the Trop was also “one of many possibilities that has been discussed with the city and the county since the hurricanes.” The Rays have played at Tropicana Field since their founding in 1998. They will play this season at Tampa’s George M. Steinbrenner Field.

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Tampa Bay Rays

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Rockies’ Prospect Charlie Condon Sustains Non-Displaced Wrist Fracture

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2025 at 8:08pm CDT

Rockies prospect Charlie Condon suffered a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist, reports Manny Randhawa of MLB.com. He’ll be in a splint for a month and will not resume baseball activities for six weeks. Condon will not require surgery, but this will delay his season debut until at least May.

Colorado drafted Condon third overall last summer. The righty-hitting outfielder/third baseman was a candidate to go at #1 after a monster junior season at Georgia. Condon slugged 37 homers with a .433/.556/1.009 line against SEC pitching. Baseball America, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law of The Athletic all ranked Condon as the top prospect in the class leading up to the draft. It registered as a slight surprise that he even got to the Rox at three. Cleveland took hit-first second baseman Travis Bazzana first, while the Reds went with righty Chase Burns with the #2 pick.

Condon’s professional career hasn’t begun as hoped. The Rockies assigned him to High-A Spokane. Condon hit .180 with 34 strikeouts and four walks in 25 games. He managed only one home run in 109 plate appearances. GM Bill Schmidt said last month that Condon was playing through a thumb injury. It’s a small enough sample that it’s not cause for too much concern, though the Rockies clearly anticipated he’d perform better after he obliterated the top college pitching in the country. Condon still ranks among the sport’s top 50 overall prospects at Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB Pipeline.

The wrist injury gets his first full minor league season off to a tough start. Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes that the injury occurred when he dove for a fly ball in a minor league Spring Training contest on Tuesday.

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Colorado Rockies Charlie Condon

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Poll: Should The Blue Jays Have Offered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $500MM?

By Nick Deeds | March 14, 2025 at 6:54pm CDT

Active extension talks between the Blue Jays and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to an apparent halt last month. The beginning of Spring Training, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, came and went without a deal. But that hasn’t stopped those negotiations from being a major topic of discussion around baseball in the weeks since.

Some of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; while extension negotiations are often played relatively close to the vest by both players and their clubs, Guerrero has been unusually candid about the negotiations throughout the process. His public comments have ranged from acknowledging back in December that the Jays had extended him a $340MM offer to his recent interview with ESPN where he suggested his asking price clocked in below $600MM over at least 14 years.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking price at a net present value of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or a higher sticker price including deferred money that took the net present value back down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did offer Guerrero about $500MM, but with deferrals that knocked the net present value down to the $400-450MM range, so the two sides were about $50-100MM apart in terms of NPV.

It’s an interesting development, not only for the window it provides into Guerrero’s thinking with his final season prior to free agency just around the corner, but also because of how rare it is for a player’s asking price to be reported on so specifically. With reasonable confidence in the knowledge that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract offer from the Jays, the decision by Toronto not to offer Guerrero that deal is an especially interesting point of discussion.

It’s easy to see why Guerrero would feel comfortable asking for that sort of contract. The slugger is coming off a superb season at the plate for the Blue Jays last year where he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The performance was good for a sixth-place finish in the AL’s stacked MVP race last year, and in terms of overall production was more or less a perfect replica of his 2021 campaign where he posted a 166 wRC+ and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now under his belt, it’s impossible to argue against the fact that Guerrero is one of the league’s most explosive offensive talents.

That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all the more tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play next year at just 27 years old, one year older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as perhaps the best reason for Guerrero to feel emboldened to set his asking price at half a billion dollars. After all, the star outfielder’s combination of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets back in December. It’s the richest contract in the history of professional sports and completely shattered all contractual precedents. Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s own $700MM deal with the Dodgers, which has an estimated net present value of $461MM, Soto’s contract includes no deferred money.

In that context, Guerrero setting his asking price at approximately two-thirds of Soto’s deal is understandable. After all, neither player contributes much in the field or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his best he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. The Blue Jays themselves clearly saw Soto as a player worth splurging on, as they were a finalist for his services. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported back in December that the Jays’ offer to Soto clocked in under $700MM, but that shows that Toronto has the financial wherewithal to make a massive offer and a willingness to put pen to paper on such a deal for a player relatively similar to Guerrero. As mentioned earlier, they also made a substantial offer to Guerrero that went beyond $400MM in terms of NPV.

With that being said, the comparison isn’t without flaws. Guerrero is already more or less restricted to first base defensively, while Soto is capable of playing passable defense in the outfield corners and likely could theoretically move to first base in the future, as other corner outfielders like Bryce Harper have done in the past. More important than either his slightly more versatile defensive skill set or the fact that he hit free agency one year younger than Guerrero will, however, is the fact that Soto is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.

Setting Soto aside, there are valid reasons for concern when it comes to Guerrero. The slugger has shown a level of year-to-year volatility that could be difficult to stomach for a franchise cornerstone on what would be the second-largest contract in MLB history, and is just one year removed from a lackluster 2023 campaign where he posted a wRC+ of 118 with just 1.3 fWAR. One also doesn’t have to look very far to find first basemen who were comparable or even greater offensive talents than Guerrero at his age but saw their production take a nosedive in their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the most obvious examples of the pitfalls that can come with offering even immense offensive talents franchise-altering contracts under the assumption they’ll remain productive into their mid-to-late 30s.

Another consideration that must be taken into account from Toronto’s perspective is the club’s own prospects of near-term success at the big league level. The Jays, as presently constructed, feature an aging roster with plenty of holes and question marks that figure to only grow in the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios continue to age while pieces of the club’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk reach free agency. The club is coming off a fifth-place finish in the AL East last year and is projected by Fangraphs for a record of just 82-80, less than a full win ahead of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division leading projection of 86-76. If Toronto were to enter a rebuild in the near future after giving Guerrero a massive contract, they’d risk wasting the prime of their superstar’s career and returning to contention only when his best years are already behind him.

If you were in the Blue Jays’ shoes, would you have signed on the dotted line to keep Guerrero in the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Blue Jays have given Guerrero $500MM over 14 years?
No 58.49% (5,685 votes)
Yes 41.51% (4,035 votes)
Total Votes: 9,720
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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    Tigers, Framber Valdez Agree To Three-Year Deal

    Padres To Sign Miguel Andujar

    Red Sox To Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    White Sox Sign Austin Hays

    Pirates Join Bidding For Framber Valdez

    Diamondbacks To Sign Carlos Santana

    Reds Sign Eugenio Suarez

    Mariners Acquire Brendan Donovan

    White Sox Acquire Jordan Hicks

    Giants, Luis Arraez Agree To One-Year Deal

    Twins Announce “Mutual” Parting Of Ways With President Of Baseball Ops Derek Falvey

    Athletics Extend Jacob Wilson

    David Robertson Announces Retirement

    Giants Sign Harrison Bader

    White Sox Sign Seranthony Domínguez

    Rockies Trade Angel Chivilli To Yankees

    MLB Sets August 3 Trade Deadline For 2026 Season

    Yankees Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

    Recent

    Yankees To Re-Sign Paul Goldschmidt

    A’s Hire Mark McGwire As Special Assistant

    Padres Had Interest In Goldschmidt, Valdez

    Angels Release Cody Laweryson

    Royals Re-Sign Luke Maile To Minor League Deal

    White Sox Outright Jairo Iriarte, Drew Romo

    Giants Finalize 2026 Coaching Staff

    Poll: Do The Cardinals Have Another Trade In Them This Offseason?

    Athletics To Sign Scott Barlow

    Orioles Outright Weston Wilson

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