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The Opener: Pitching Market, Yankees, Arb Deals

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Here are three things we’re watching around the baseball world today…

1. Pitching market heating up?

There’s less than six weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and still plenty of moves left to be made, meaning the offseason has to pick up momentum soon. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to holds things up for a while, then the holidays put things on pause. Now that all that is settled, there’s plenty of smoke starting to appear around guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and Dylan Cease, meaning things could be about to get hectic.

2. Yankees in the spotlight:

It appears the Yankees are set to be one of the most aggressive clubs in that pitching market. They missed on Yamamoto and traded away a bunch of pitching depth in the Juan Soto deal, leaving them looking to bolster their rotation before the offseason is done. Will they be able to make a big splash in the coming weeks?

3. Arbitration deals upcoming:

January 12 is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for the upcoming season. With that date just a week away, there may be some deals that get locked down in the preceding days. Many clubs have a “file and trial” approach where they won’t do a deal after the filing deadline, so it can serve as a sort of ticking clock for any player that wants to avoid a hearing.

Braves, Chris Sale Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Braves and left-hander Chris Sale have agreed to a new deal, which will pay him $38MM over the next two years. The Wasserman client will earn $16MM in 2024 and $22MM in 2025 and there’s also an $18MM club option for 2026. Sale was already under contract via an extension he previously signed with the Red Sox but this will overwrite that.

Sale was acquired from the Red Sox last week, in a trade that sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston. The Sox also included $17MM to cover the remainder of Sale’s contract, a five-year, $145MM extension he and the Red Sox signed in 2019. As part of that deal, Sale was set to make $27.5MM in 2024, though $10MM of that was deferred until 15 years in the future. With the $17MM coming from the Sox, Atlanta was only going to be paying him $500K. There was also a $20MM club option for 2025.

As part of this new deal, Sale’s $16MM salary will be pretty close to the non-deferred money he was going to make in 2024. He will no longer have that deferred $10MM payment down the road, but he will have $22MM locked in for the 2025 season. That gives him some extra security in the event of more health problems cropping up this year. Sale pitched less than 50 total innings over the 2020-2022 period, mostly due to Tommy John surgery but also due to other ailments. Last year, he was able to toss 102 2/3 frames but a stress reaction in his shoulder blade kept him out of action for over two months. Any further health issues would have perhaps given the club some hesitation about picking up the 2025 option but Sale has now locked in a notable salary for next year.

For Atlanta, this is a show of faith in the soon-to-be-35-year-old. They could have simply employed Sale for 2024 and then walked away if things didn’t go well, with the club option there to keep him around if he had a strong campaign for his new club. But they have now committed themselves to at least two years of Sale, with the club option now kicked down the road to 2026. As mentioned, Sale hasn’t been fully healthy in the past four years and even had some issues before that. Some shoulder and elbow issues kept him around 150 innings in 2018 and 2019, meaning his last fully healthy campaign was 2017.

Back then, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league, finishing that 2017 season with a 2.90 ERA. Last year, he wasn’t quite as dominant, with a 4.30 at the end of the season. The peripherals were a bit better, however, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate that were both strong.

Despite that fairly solid bounceback season, it’s obviously a gamble to bet on a pitcher that has been hurt so much, locking him up for his age-35 and age-36 seasons. But the club has a decent amount of rotation uncertainty going forward. Max Fried is entering his final year of club control while Charlie Morton is one year from free agency as well. Morton has flirted with retirement before and is going into his age-40 season, making it possible he won’t be back in 2025.

Prior to this deal, Sale was a potential to depart as well, depending on the outcome of the club option. Now that he’s under contract for 2025, he can be pencilled into next year’s rotation next to Spencer Strider. The club will still have to fill out the rest of the rotation, but perhaps internal options like Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep will have taken steps forwards between now and then.

There’s also the competitive balance tax to consider. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded to reflect what remains of the contract. That means that Sale was going to have a $27.5MM CBT hit prior to this deal, with the Sox absorbing $17MM of that. But that will now drop to $19MM, leaving just $2MM on Atlanta’s CBT ledger this year but $19MM next year. Going into today, the club’s CBT figure was at $276MM, per Roster Resource. That’s right against the third tax threshold of $277MM, which is a notable line to cross. Clubs that go over the third threshold have their top pick in the next draft pushed back by 10 slots, in addition to an increased tax rate. By lowering Sale’s CBT hit, the club will have a bit more breathing room to make more moves, either now or during the season.

Ultimately, it’s a pact that works for both sides. Atlanta gets a bit more luxury tax space and also, hopefully, a better rotation outlook in 2025 and maybe even 2026. Sale, meanwhile, locks in some future earnings to guard against any continued health issues.

Rangers Hire Dave Bush As Director Of Pitching Strategy

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The Rangers announced the hiring of Dave Bush as director of pitching strategy. Texas also announced various promotions on both the business and baseball operations sides of the organization.

Bush is a new hire for Texas GM Chris Young. The 44-year-old has spent the last four seasons as pitching coach of the Red Sox. Boston fired him shortly after the conclusion of the 2023 campaign. (They hired Andrew Bailey to fill the position six weeks later.) Prior to his stint on the MLB staff, Bush had operated as a pitching development analyst and coordinator with Boston.

While he won’t directly return to a big league coaching staff, the Rangers’ press release said Bush “will be involved in all aspects of the organization’s pitching operation with emphasis on the Major League club.” He’ll work with veteran pitching coach Mike Maddux, who is entering his second season on Bruce Bochy’s staff in Arlington.

Bush pitched in 17 games for the Rangers in 2011, part of a nine-year big league playing career. He spent the majority of his time as a player with the Brewers, including a few seasons where Maddux was the pitching coach in Milwaukee.

Pirates, Mariners Have Shown Interest In Carlos Santana

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The Mariners and Pirates are among the teams showing interest in free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both Heyman and Robert Murray of FanSided write that the Brewers also have continued interest, aligning with comments from Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold at the Winter Meetings.

As with Milwaukee, Seattle and Pittsburgh are each familiar with Santana. He has played for all three as part of a 14-year MLB career spanning six clubs. The Mariners acquired the veteran switch-hitter from the Royals at the 2022 deadline. He struggled to a .192/.293/.400 line across 294 plate appearances before hitting free agency last offseason.

That led Santana to Pittsburgh on a one-year, $6.725MM free agent pact. He hit .235/.321/.412 over 393 trips to the dish. Once the Bucs fell out of contention, he was on the move for the second straight summer. Pittsburgh dealt him to Milwaukee for a rookie ball infield prospect. At the time of the trade, the Pirates and Santana each expressed openness to revisiting talks this offseason.

Santana was a decent contributor for Milwaukee down the stretch. He connected on 11 homes in 52 games, batting .249/.314/.459. He finished the season with a .240/.318/.429 line with 23 home runs in 619 plate appearances between the NL Central rivals. While his 10.5% walk rate was a career low, it still checked in above league average. Santana takes free passes and remains difficult to strike out, although he annually posts very low averages on balls in play.

That has added up to around league average offensive production for the past four seasons. That’s not especially exciting at first base, but Santana contributes more than most at the position with the glove. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have continued to grade him as a plus defender even as he moves into his late-30s. Santana has also been very durable and is widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence (as evidenced by interest from three of his former teams).

Of that trio, Milwaukee seems the most straightforward. The Brewers don’t have an obvious answer at first base. Milwaukee acquired Jake Bauers from the Yankees and tendered him an arbitration contract, but he’s coming off a .202/.279/.413 showing in the Bronx.

Seattle and Pittsburgh have starting options at first base, although neither is coming off a great year. Ty France slumped to a .250/.337/.366 slash with below-average defensive grades. Still, France’s cumulative .285/.355/.443 showing between 2020-22 hints at a higher offensive ceiling than Santana provides at this stage of his career. The M’s signed Mitch Garver to handle the bulk of the designated hitting duties.

Pittsburgh brought in Santana’s former Milwaukee teammate Rowdy Tellez on a $3.2MM rebound flier. They re-signed Andrew McCutchen to take the DH spot. The Pirates could bump Tellez to the bench, but they’d be committing more money than they’re typically willing to first base/DH at that point. Santana is likely limited to another one-year deal but could find a similar salary to last year’s near-$7MM pact. With McCutchen, Tellez and Connor Joe ($2MM arbitration projection) all on the roster, a reunion could be a tough fit.

Padres Sign Oscar Mercado, Kevin Plawecki To Minor League Deals

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The Padres have signed outfielder Óscar Mercado and catcher Kevin Plawecki to minor league contracts with invitations to big league Spring Training, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. According to the MLB.com transaction tracker, San Diego also has minor league agreements with outfielder Bryce Johnson and left-hander Daniel Camarena.

Mercado returns to the Padres after logging some Triple-A time there a season ago. The 29-year-old had an excellent 30-game run with their top farm team in El Paso, hitting .339/.399/.669 with 10 homers and steals apiece. San Diego declined to give him a major league look and he finished the year on a minor league pact with the Dodgers.

Before his stint with the Padres, the Colombian-born outfielder had gotten into 20 MLB games for the Cardinals last year. He has reached the majors in five straight seasons, operating in a depth capacity for most of the time since a solid debut campaign in Cleveland. He’s a .237/.289/.388 hitter in a little under 1000 MLB plate appearances, but he’s a plus runner who can handle all three outfield positions.

Plawecki, 33 in February, spent all of last season in Triple-A. As with Mercado, he briefly joined the San Diego organization midseason. The right-handed hitter combined for a .272/.349/.389 showing in 269 plate appearances with the affiliates for the Nationals, Padres and Rangers. San Diego dealt him to Texas for cash around the deadline.

Last year was the first time since 2014 that Plawecki didn’t see any big league work. He’s a .235/.313/.341 hitter over 449 career games. He’ll add non-roster depth behind the MLB catching duo of Luis Campusano and Kyle Higashioka, although Brett Sullivan has a 40-man roster spot and is above him on the depth chart.

Johnson is a former sixth-round draftee who had spent his entire career with the Giants. The Sam Houston State product reached the majors briefly in each of the last two years, hitting .148/.209/.213 in 67 trips to the plate. As one would expect, Johnson has had more success in Triple-A. He’s a .286/.373/.429 batter over parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level. The 28-year-old has experience at each outfield spot.

Camarena’s lone big league experience consists of six appearances for the Friars in 2021. He’s most well-known for connecting on a stunning grand slam off Max Scherzer. The 31-year-old southpaw has spent a good chunk of time in the San Diego farm system. He pitched for Double-A San Antonio a year ago, posting a 6.20 ERA through 69 2/3 innings.

Mets Indicating Willingness To Trade Omar Narvaez

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The Mets are telling teams they’re open to dealing Omar Narváez, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear whether any clubs are interested in the left-handed hitting catcher, although the Mets would very likely have to pay down some portion of his contract to facilitate a move.

It’s the second straight offseason in which New York is looking to move a veteran catcher fairly early into a free agent deal. The Mets surprisingly guaranteed Narváez $15MM over two seasons. He made $8MM last year and had a $7MM player option for 2024. The Narváez pickup led the Mets to cut bait on James McCann two seasons into a four-year, $40MM pact. New York paid all but $5MM of the $24MM remaining on McCann’s deal to offload him to the Orioles.

The Narváez signing wasn’t as costly as the McCann acquisition. It started similarly poorly, however. Narváez suffered a significant strain of his left calf within the season’s first two weeks. He was sidelined into June. By the time he returned, rookie Francisco Álvarez had taken over as the starter. Narváez was pushed into a depth role and didn’t perform well.

In 49 games, Narváez hit .211/.283/.297 with a pair of home runs. That’s on the heels of a similarly underwhelming .206/.292/.305 line in 296 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2022. Narváez had a solid ’21 campaign (.266/.342/.402 over 445 trips to the plate) but has been a well below-average hitter in three of the past four seasons. It’s a notable step back from 2017-19, when Narváez was somewhat quietly one of the better offensive catchers in MLB.

To his credit, the eight-year veteran has generally improved behind the plate as his numbers at the dish have regressed. Statcast graded Narváez as an above-average pitch framer each season from 2020-22. That reflected a seemingly concerted effort to improve his receiving after being traded from the Mariners to Milwaukee going into the 2020 season. Narváez has never had a great throwing arm, though, which opponents exploited with more favorable baserunning rules last year. He threw out only six of 52 stolen base attempts, an 11.5% success rate that was well off the 19.8% league average.

Between the calf injury and a replacement-level performance, Narváez had an easy decision to exercise his player option. While his path to playing time in Queens is limited, he wouldn’t have found a $7MM contract if he returned to free agency. It’s hard to envision another team taking the full salary in trade either, but the Mets haven’t had many qualms about paying down contracts. They’ve done so with back-of-the-roster players like McCann and Eduardo Escobar and in blockbuster transactions involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

President of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t involved in the decision to sign Narváez, although he’s familiar with the player from their time in Milwaukee. One of Stearns’ first moves with the Mets was to claim Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays. He joins Álvarez and Narváez as the three catchers on the 40-man roster.

Tomás Nido, who has played parts of seven MLB seasons as a Met, remains in the organization after being outrighted in June (a move that coincided with Narváez’s return from the calf strain). Nido hit .281/.336/.393 in 39 games at Triple-A Syracuse after clearing waivers. He’ll make $2.1MM next season as part of a two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration last offseason.

Reds Outright Austin Wynns

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The Reds announced they’ve assigned catcher Austin Wynns outright to Triple-A Louisville after he cleared waivers. Cincinnati designated him for assignment on Tuesday as the corresponding move to sign Frankie Montas. The Reds also announced they received cash considerations from the Giants to complete the December 19 trade that sent outfielder TJ Hopkins to San Francisco.

Trading Hopkins was coincidentally necessitated by the signing of Wynns to a free agent deal. The Reds inked the 33-year-old backstop to a one-year pact. He held his spot on the 40-man roster for roughly three weeks. Tuesday’s DFA again leaves Cincinnati with Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile as the only catchers on the 40-man.

While it’s not the outcome Wynns had wanted, it’s likely one he knew was a possibility. He signed a split contract that would pay him at a $900K rate for time spent in the majors and $300K for whatever work he logs in Triple-A. Wynns is out of minor league options, so the only way he’d have gotten to Triple-A is if Cincinnati ran him through outright waivers at some point.

With over three years of big league service time, Wynns technically has the right to reject the assignment and return to the free agent market. Doing so would require forfeiting the $300K sum he locked in on the split deal, however. He’ll likely accept the assignment and report to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t land an Opening Day spot, he can start the year in Louisville while earning a decent salary for a minor league player.

Wynns stands as the top non-roster option if the Reds decide to go back to a three-catcher group — as they did last season with Stephenson, Maile and Curt Casali. Wynns is coming off a poor offensive showing in which he hit .208/.268/.277 over 51 games between the Giants, Dodgers and Rockies. He has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he has parts of five seasons of big league experience and rated as a solid defender last season. He thwarted an excellent 30.8% of stolen base attempts with career-best marks as a pitch framer.

Tigers, Andrew Vasquez Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Tigers re-signed lefty reliever Andrew Vasquez to a minor league contract with an invite to big league Spring Training, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He finished last season in Detroit after being claimed off waivers from Philadelphia in early August.

Vasquez, 30, made 42 appearances at the big league level a year ago. He tossed 48 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Tigers, handily surpassing the 15 1/3 frames he logged from 2019-22 combined. Vasquez managed excellent results in Philadelphia, working to a 2.27 ERA across 30 appearances. That came in spite of a middling 20% strikeout percentage and a very modest 7.7% swinging strike rate. Clearly skeptical of his ability to continue keeping runs off the board at an elite level, Philadelphia designated him for assignment on August 2.

His results indeed fell off in the Motor City, albeit in a very small sample. Vasquez allowed nine runs (eight earned) with nine strikeouts and walks apiece over 8 2/3 innings. He finished the season with a 3.35 ERA over 48 1/3 frames and went unclaimed on waivers at the beginning of the offseason. Vasquez elected minor league free agency before returning to Detroit in a non-roster capacity.

Vasquez brings an atypical approach, leaning very heavily on a slider to offset a lack of velocity. He threw his breaking ball nearly 82% of the time last season. While that pitch did an excellent job avoiding hard contact, it didn’t generate the kind of swing-and-miss that teams prioritize in the bullpen. As a result, Vasquez will need to reclaim a 40-man spot to get back to the majors.

The Tigers have Andrew Chafin and Tyler Holton as southpaws locked into season-opening spots in the relief corps. Joey Wentz is out of options, so he’ll need to be on the MLB roster in some capacity unless Detroit is willing to risk losing him on waivers or via minor trade. Vasquez is out of options himself. If the Tigers call him up at any point, they’d need to keep him in the majors or again make him available to other teams.

Pirates Sign Michael Plassmeyer To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed left-hander Michael Plassmeyer to a minor league deal, according to the transactions section of the southpaw’s MLB.com profile page. It’s not clear whether or not the deal includes an invite to big league Spring Training next month.

Plassmeyer, 27, was a fourth-round pick by Seattle in the 2018 draft. Shortly thereafter, the lefty was included in the five-player trade between the Mariners and the Rays that sent Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay. Plassmeyer dominated the lower levels of the minors with the Rays, pitching to a 1.91 ERA in 25 appearances across three levels with a 21.2% strikeout rate in 132 innings of work. Unfortunately for the lefty, his progress would be delayed by the minor league season in 2020 being cancelled and another trade as he was shipped to San Francisco in exchange for Matt Wisler and cash during the 2021 season.

Upon joining the Giants, Plassmeyer struggled in 16 appearances at the Double-A level with a 5.08 ERA in 79 2/3 innings of work. Those struggles in the San Francisco farm system continued into the 2022 season as the lefty posted a 7.38 ERA in 11 appearances at the Triple-A level. The southpaw’s difficulties with the Giants came to an end midseason when he was traded for the third time in his career, this time to the Phillies. His season took a turn for the better down the stretch at the Triple-A level with Philadelphia, as he posted a 2.41 ERA in 82 innings of work across 16 starts. Plassmeyer’s strong results led to a call up to the majors late in the 2022 season that saw him post a 3.68 ERA in 7 1/3 innings of work across two appearances.

Back in the minor leagues in 2023, Plassmeyer spent much of the summer on the injured list and struggled when he was able to take the mound, with a 5.05 ERA in 16 appearances at the Triple-A level. His second cup of coffee in the majors didn’t go as well as the first, as Plassmeyer allowed ten runs (nine earned) on eight hits and three hit batsmen while striking out just four in 3 2/3 innings of work. Plassmeyer hit minor league free agency on the heels of that difficult season, and will now travel across Pennsylvania to join the Pirates.

The southpaw joins a Pittsburgh organization in need of pitching depth with each of JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, and Johan Oviedo currently rehabbing Tommy John surgery. While Plassmeyer seems unlikely to break into a rotation mix that currently features Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, and Luis Ortiz, he figures to provide the Pirates with a depth option capable of pitching both out of the bullpen and rotation headed into the 2024 campaign.

Astros Sign Chris Gittens To Minor League Deal

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The Astros and first baseman Chris Gittens are in agreement on a minor league deal, as noted in the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. It’s currently unclear whether or not the deal will include an invitation to big league Spring Training next month.

Gittens, 30 in February, was a 12th-round pick by the Yankees back in 2014. He spent several years slowly moving up the big league ladder until he eventually reached the majors during the 2021 season. His stint with the big league club ultimately lasted just 16 games, during which he struggled to a .111/.250/.194 slash line. Despite those brutal numbers in the majors, Gittens excelled at the Triple-A level in 2021 with a fantastic slash line of .301/.440/.644 in 184 trips to the plate.

That strong performance earned Gittens an opportunity overseas, and he signed on with the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball prior to the 2022 season. Across two years as a member of the Eagles, Gittens made it into just 50 games, but the slugger impressed in that limited playing time with a .299/.426/.493 slash line in 169 trips to the plate. That performance was evidently enough for the Astros to have interest in Gittens, who figures to carry little risk as a likely minor league signing.

Gittens has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, having stepped up to the plate in a professional game just 289 times since the end of the 2019 campaign. That being said, the slugger has hit well in every opportunity when healthy during that time, with the notable exception of his aforementioned 16-game cup of coffee in the majors back in 2021. Headed into the 2024 season, Gittens could be given the opportunity this spring to compete with fellow first baseman Jon Singleton as a bench bat who can back up veteran Jose Abreu at first.

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