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Yankees To Skip Marcus Stroman’s Next Start

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The Yankees are moving Marcus Stroman to the bullpen, at least for the time being. Stroman would have been lined up to make his next start on Sunday against the Red Sox, but manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) that the Yankees plan to skip Stroman’s turn in the rotation. Instead, the right-hander will be available out of the bullpen.

Boone has had six healthy starting pitchers at his disposal since the Yankees reinstated Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt from the injured list this past weekend. At first, it was Nestor Cortes who lost his spot in the rotation; he was scheduled to start last Saturday, but instead, he appeared as a piggyback reliever for Schmidt. However, Cortes returned to the rotation last night, tossing five innings of one-run ball against Boston. Boone says Cortes will remain in the rotation for at least his next start (per Jorge Castillo of ESPN).

Thus, Stroman is the odd man out this time around. Boone suggests the Yankees could stick with a five-man set-up the next time through the rotation as well (per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), which likely means more time in the bullpen for Stroman. This surely comes as a disappointment for the veteran, who was certainly planning to be a full-time starter – and hopefully start in the postseason – when he signed a two-year, $37MM guarantee with the Yankees last offseason. That said, with the way he has performed this year, the Yankees’ decision shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise.

On the surface, Stroman got off to a typical start in 2024. Through the All-Star break, he was 7-4 with a 3.51 ERA. However, his underlying metrics were concerning, including a low strikeout rate (17.4%) a high walk rate (10.5%), a high home run rate (1.29 HR/9), and a career-worst 4.94 SIERA. His opponents produced a .330 expected wOBA, significantly higher than the .315 league average this season.

With all that in mind, it’s no wonder Stroman’s ERA has risen dramatically in the second half. He has given up 29 runs (26 earned) in 43 1/3 innings of work, good for a 5.40 ERA. Although he has improved his control (6.7% walk rate) and gotten his home runs in check (0.62 HR/9), he has only struck out 31 of the 195 batters he has faced (15.9% strikeout rate). His 4.48 SIERA marks an improvement from the first half, but it’s still poor. On top of that, Stroman’s expected wOBA has only gotten worse. He is one of 92 pitchers who have thrown at least 750 pitches since the All-Star break. Among that group, his .362 xwOBA ranks last.

Stroman was solid in his latest outing, tossing 5 1/3 and giving up three earned runs against the Royals. However, he lasted just 3 2/3 and gave up five runs on nine hits against the Rangers the start before that. All things considered, Stroman isn’t having a bad season, but simply put, the Yankees have five other starting pitchers who give them a better chance to win games right now.

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is a lock atop the rotation, while Gil is enjoying a tremendous rookie campaign. Schmidt was enjoying a breakout of his own before he hit the IL in late May. He looked just as sharp in his return last weekend. Carlos Rodón has had his ups and downs this year, but he has an ace pedigree and strong numbers in the second half (3.33 ERA, 3.17 SIERA). Finally, Cortes has had trials and tribulations of his own this season, but his overall numbers are stronger than Stroman’s, and Cortes has looked especially sharp his last two times out (1 ER, 12 K, 9 1/3 IP).

Funnily enough, Yankees GM Brian Cashman claimed back in 2019 that he didn’t trade for Stroman at that year’s deadline because he “felt [Stroman] would be in [the] bullpen in the postseason.” The righty seemed to take those comments personally, and Cashman ended up apologizing to him during negotiations this past winter (per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press). However, Stroman reportedly took the news that he would be moving to the bullpen with grace (per Hoch). According to Boone, Stroman will be “ready to go” in whatever role the team needs him down the stretch.

Giants Notes: Snell, Yastrzemski, Conforto

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The Giants already extended one potential free agent by when they inked third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151MM contract that overrode the remaining two years and $34MM on his previous pact and negated the opt-out clause he was sure to exercise. Now, the recruiting pitch for another likely opt-out candidate is on. Giants righty Logan Webb appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast this week and suggested he’s doing everything he can to convince Blake Snell to re-sign on a longer-term deal and plant roots in the Bay Area (YouTube link, with Snell talk beginning at the 18:15 mark). Asked by Rose how he can help make sure Snell is back with the Giants in 2025, Webb replied:

I’m going to do everything [I can]. I don’t know how that’s all going to work out. I kind of hope they do what they did with Chappy — start conversations now, so we’re not bidding against other teams. I’m sure there’s teams in our division that are going to try hard to get him. Teams need good starting pitching, and he’s been the best in baseball since the beginning of July. It’s been awesome to watch, and he’s one of my favorite teammates. Hopefully we do everything we can to get him back.

He didn’t have a spring training, right? … He was kind of scuffling. I think he was doubting himself a little bit. And then, all of a sudden, look what happens when he gains some confidence. He’s back to Blake Snell. He’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Not many guys are two-time Cy Young Award winners, and you can see it when he throws. He’s throwing pellets. It’s unbelievable, as a lefty. I don’t know how anybody hits this. We’ve got to do everything we can to get him back. I do think he should be a big part of our future going forward.

Webb noted to Rose that he doesn’t plan to campaign to the front office in unprompted manner — though public-facing comments of this nature are in a way indirectly doing so — but would offer his opinions and any feedback if asked. It’s clear that Webb, a perennial Cy Young candidate himself, values Snell’s on-field contributions as well as the left-hander’s presence in the clubhouse.

The assertion that Snell has been baseball’s best arm dating back to early July is hard to argue, too. Snell’s no-hitter gained plenty of attention, but as I explored in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers a couple weeks ago, Snell has picked up his annual second-half momentum and looks to be back in Cy Young form. He obviously won’t win the award this season after a dismal start to the season that included him twice landing on the injured list, but since returning from his latest IL stint on July 9, Snell has a 1.45 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He’s punched out a gaudy 36.5% of his opponents, offsetting a higher-than-average 10.5% walk rate, and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 12 starts (the exception being a three-run, six-inning quality start on Aug. 7).

That run of dominance makes Snell’s opt-out an easy call — the alternative would be a $30MM player option for the 2025 season — but it’s not clear whether the front office has engaged with agent Scott Boras (who also reps Chapman). The Giants have been reluctant to make weighty long-term offers to free agent pitchers under the current front office regime. Webb’s five-year, $90MM extension is the largest contract the Giants have given to a pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in both years and dollars. They haven’t signed a free agent for more than three years (Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM deal) or for more than a total of $44MM (Carlos Rodon’s two-year deal). Snell should breeze past both marks.

Snell isn’t the only Giant whose future is uncertain, of course. The Giants have a wide slate of potential free agents but also some borderline arbitration calls. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski spoke with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about his own status. The 34-year-old is owed a raise on his $7.9MM salary this offseason and has turned in a fairly typical season by his standards, slashing .237/.310/.441 with 15 home runs and quality defense in right field.

Yastrzemski has been a fine value at his current salary, but an arb raise could push him north of $10MM. For a player in his mid-30s who’s unlikely to return to his standout 2019-20 form, that could be present a difficult decision as the non-tender deadline approaches in November — particularly since the Giants have a number of younger outfield options. Heliot Ramos has solidified himself in the 2025 outfield, and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will be back next year after undergoing shoulder surgery that ended his season back in May. Grant McCray, 23, has looked a bit over his head in 85 plate appearances so far (.247 OBP, 41% strikeout rate), but he had a decent showing in Triple-A this year. He and/or Luis Matos could push into the picture next season.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Yastrzemski is more of a part-time player, but his salary could be steep for that role. He made clear to Slusser he hopes to be back, however, even mentioning a willingness to sign a two-year deal that’d lower his contract’s average annual value. We don’t typically see players heading into their final arbitration season voice willingness to sign for only two years, but Yastrzemski is older than most players with five-plus years of service and also spoke of how he’s “grown so in love with” the organization, the stadium, the clubhouse and the city itself.

Slusser also adds that outfielder Michael Conforto, a free agent at season’s end, is hoping to return to San Francisco. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where both Yastrzemski and Conforto are back next year, however, as the Giants will want to earmark playing time for Ramos and Lee and surely want to leave the door open for at-bats for younger outfielders like McCray and Matos. One of Conforto or Yastrzemski, at most, seems feasible.

The 31-year-old Conforto has never regained his star-level form after undergoing shoulder surgery two years ago, but he’s popped 16 homers for the Giants this season while batting .229/.307/.430. He’s been about 7% better than average after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+, but he’s also sitting on the lowest full-season walk rate of his career (9.3%) and his highest strikeout rate (25%) since 2017.

Conforto likely won’t come close to the two-year, $36MM contract he received from the Giants two offseasons ago this time around. Familiarity with the player could prompt some interest in a reunion from the San Francisco front office, but he hasn’t been a handily above-average bat since 2020 at this point. A modest one- or two-year deal could be the outcome this offseason, and a Giants club hoping to establish more of an offensive identity moving forward might prefer to shuffle the lineup rather than largely maintain the status quo.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Rangers Extend Chris Young

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The Rangers on Friday announced that they’ve agreed to a multi-year contract extension with general manager Chris Young, who’d been in the final season of his previous deal, which ran from 2021-24. The team did not specify the length of the new contract. Young was also promoted and now holds the title president of baseball operations.

“Chris Young’s impact on the Texas Rangers organization has been immense over the last four years,” managing partner and majority owner Ray Davis said within today’s press release. “His leadership and vision were instrumental in helping bring a World Series championship to Arlington for the first time, and he is passionate about producing a consistent winner on the field year in and year out for our fans. Our baseball operations group, from scouting and player development to the Major League team, is in great hands with CY at the helm for many years to come. I look forward to continuing our work together.”

Young, 45, joined the Rangers’ front office in Dec. 2020 after spending two seasons working in MLB’s central office as the league’s senior vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy. Given his background, he was a somewhat out-of-the-box hire, but the Rangers weren’t the only club with interest. Mets owner Steve Cohen also spoke to Young about a potential baseball operations leadership role, but Young removed his name from consideration for that post. Just weeks later, he accepted the title of GM with the Rangers. As a Dallas native, it was a homecoming for Young and helped to explain why he quickly withdrew from consideration for the Mets post.

At the time of his hiring, Young was second on the Rangers’ baseball ops hierarchy to then-president of baseball operations Jon Daniels. Daniels had helmed baseball operations in Arlington since 2006, but Young’s hiring proved to be a portent for a changing of the guard. Less than two years after tabbing Young as the general manager, Daniels was fired in Aug. 2022. Young took over baseball operations and, in his first full season steering the ship, saw his club defy all preseason expectations by bringing home the first World Series title in franchise history.

The success can hardly be attributed to Young alone, of course. Daniels’ fingerprints were all over the 2023 Rangers, whether in the form of prior free agent signings (e.g. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray), previous trades (Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, Mitch Garver) or homegrown contributors (Josh Jung, Leody Taveras, Jose Leclerc). That said, it was Young who was leading the front office when Texas signed Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Grossman and others. He also oversaw the acquisitions of Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton and Aroldis Chapman (admittedly paying what now looks like an excessively steep price of Cole Ragans). This past offseason’s slate of modest, payroll-limited moves included fruitful signings of Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Michael Lorenzen.

The 2024 season hasn’t at all been the followup to last year’s title that ownership, Young, the rest of the organization and fans of the Rangers envisioned. It was well known heading into the year that Texas would have several key arms on the shelf (Scherzer, deGrom, offseason signee Tyler Mahle), but the hope was that last year’s juggernaut offense would help keep the team afloat until those big arms returned to the fray.

That didn’t happen at all, however. Seager was injured early (and recently returned to the IL due to a need for sports hernia surgery). Jung missed considerable time for a second straight season. Garcia, Lowe, Taveras, young outfielder Evan Carter and catcher Jonah Heim have all taken significant steps back. Top prospect Wyatt Langford, last year’ No. 4 overall pick, broke camp with the team and has picked up steam since a slow start. However, he’s still sitting on a roughly league-average batting line and hasn’t broken out into immediate stardom like many hoped after a torrid spring training.

The result has been a 71-76 record that’s left the Rangers 7.5 games out of both the division lead and the Wild Card chase. Texas hasn’t technically been mathematically eliminated from postseason play yet, but short of a miraculous scenario where they win out for the rest of the season, they’re not going to get there. Some of that is reflective of moves that haven’t paid off and missed opportunities elsewhere. Some is indicative of the manner in which ownership’s unwillingness to spend amid concern about their television revenue effectively tied Young’s hands last winter.

Regardless of this year’s poor results, it seems ownership remains convinced that Young is the right voice to continue guiding the franchise moving forward. The Princeton grad has long been touted as one of the game’s brightest and most inquisitive minds, and he sees the game differently than many of his peers, given his 13-year career as a pitcher with the Padres, Mets, Mariners, Royals and very same Rangers he’s now tasked with constructing.

Dodgers Outright Nick Ramirez

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Left-hander Nick Ramirez went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Dodgers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Oklahoma City, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He’s been outrighted in the past and will have the option to reject in favor of free agency. Even if he accepts the assignment, Ramirez can become a minor league free agent at season’s end.

The Dodgers acquired Ramirez from the Yankees back on April 2 in a deal sending cash to the Bronx. The Yankees’ DFA of the then-34-year-old Ramirez (who’s now 35) caught many off guard, as Ramirez had pitched to a strong 2.66 ERA in 40 2/3 innings with the Yankees in 2023. The soft-tossing southpaw had a below-average 16.3% strikeout rate last year in the Bronx but countered that with a terrific 5.2% walk rate. It had been a solid season, but Ramirez was nevertheless an early-season roster casualty.

He never made it to waivers following that Yankees DFA, but Ramirez has now twice gone unclaimed following a Dodgers DFA this season. He’s struggled in 13 1/3 big league innings, allowing nine runs on 18 hits and seven walks with only five punchouts. He’s fared better in OKC but hardly overwhelmed the league; in 31 Triple-A frames this season, Ramirez has a 4.65 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate.

Cardinals Interested In Re-Signing Andrew Kittredge

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Much of the focus on the Cardinals’ slate of offseason moves was on the team’s rebuilding of its rotation. Signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have all paid off to varying extents. One of the team’s less-heralded moves, however, has proven equally important for the 2024 season. The trade of infielder/outfielder Richie Palacios to the Rays in exchange for reliever Andrew Kittredge has been a win-win swap. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a .350 OBP and quality defense at multiple positions from Palacios. The Cards have benefited from one of the most consistent setup men in the National League. And while Kittredge is a free agent at season’s end, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team expects to talk to Kittredge about a new contract in the near future.

Kittredge, 34, is in his first full season back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but has shown little signs of rust following that arduous rehab. He pitched 11 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay late last season and has been one of the most heavily used relievers in baseball this season. His 66 appearances tie him for tenth in the sport, and his 63 relief innings are tied for 33rd among 173 qualified relievers.

Kittredge hasn’t simply provided volume, however. His 33 holds lead the National League and trail only Houston’s Bryan Abreu (35) for the MLB lead. He’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA, posting slightly better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Opponents have kept the ball on the ground at a 44.5% clip against him — again, a bit better than league-average.

It’s fair to suggest that Kittredge could be in for some regression, particularly as he enters what’ll be his age-35 season. His rate stats are all sharp, but none are elite. He’s benefited from a .257 average on balls in play that’s 35 points shy of his career mark, and he hasn’t exactly been a soft-contact savant; Statcast measures Kittredge with worse-than-average marks in hard-hit rate (40.9%, 31st percentile), barrel rate (9.1%, 22nd percentile) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph, 32nd percentile).

That said, Kittredge has always gotten by with middle-of-the-pack exit velocity and hard-hit marks — though this year’s spike in barrel rate is uncharacteristic. This year’s opponents’ chase rate, contact rate (both in the zone and off the plate) and swinging-strike rate are each right in line with his career marks as well. Kittredge has lost about a mile per hour off both his sinker and slider relative to his peak showing in 2021, but that season will likely stand out as the best of his career. Even if there’s some regression in store, Kittredge looks fully capable of posting a mid-3.00s ERA with quality rate stats across the board. This version of him is still unequivocally a valuable, effective reliever.

Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to look at recent precedent, there aren’t many multi-year deals for relievers beginning in their age-35 season or later — particularly non-closing relievers. Teams are increasingly wary to commit to players in their mid-to-late 30s, and relievers are of course notably volatile. Chris Martin’s two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox is the top deal for setup men in this age bracket over the past three years; his contract began in his age-37 season. Veterans like Collin McHugh (two years, $10MM with the Braves) and Ryan Brasier (two years, $9MM with the Dodgers) have also commanded multi-year pacts. Kittredge has a steadier track record than Brasier. He throws considerably harder than McHugh did at the time of his contract in Atlanta. A two-year deal between the McHugh and Martin figures could make sense for both parties, speculatively speaking.

If the Cardinals succeed in keeping Kittredge in St. Louis, they’ll keep a late-inning corps that’s been a strength together for the 2025 season. Closer Ryan Helsley is controllable through 2025. Fellow setup men JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez (a very nice Rule 5 find) are under club control through 2026 and 2029, respectively.

The Opener: deGrom, Fitzgerald, NL Wild Card

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With just over two weeks left to go in the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. deGrom returns:

Jacob deGrom will pitch in the big leagues for the first time in more than a year when the Rangers activate him from the 60-day IL to face the Mariners in Seattle at 7:10pm local time. The 36-year-old is on the shortlist for the most dominant pitchers of the 21st century when healthy, but he’s struggled to stay on the mound in recent years. Dating back to 2018, deGrom sports a 2.08 ERA (191 ERA+) and 2.11 FIP with an eye-popping 35.6% strikeout rate. That dominance has come across just 108 starts, however, and things have gotten more drastic in recent years; while deGrom boasts a 2.03 ERA (198 ERA+) and 1.59 FIP with a comical 43.2% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season, that encompasses just 32 starts and 186 2/3 innings of work.

The right-hander will only get a few opportunities to pitch in the majors before the season comes to a close, but it’ll still be exciting for not only Rangers fans but baseball fans as a whole to have arguably the league’s best pitching talent on the mound again. The Rangers will need to make corresponding 40-man and active roster moves prior to deGrom’s start, although the former can be achieved by moving Corey Seager to the 60-day IL ahead of his impending sports hernia surgery.

2. Fitzgerald to undergo MRI:

In what has largely been another disappointing season for the Giants, the emergence of Tyler Fitzgerald as their regular shortstop has been a bright spot. The club’s fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft, Fitzgerald made his MLB debut last year and opened the season as a utility option. The versatile hitter, who will celebrate his 27th birthday over the weekend, has taken on a larger role in recent months and pulled it off with aplomb. In 49 games since being installed as the club’s regular shortstop, Fitzgerald boasts a huge .304/.356/.571 slash line 12 homers, 13 doubles, and ten stolen bases in 13 attempts.

Given Fitzgerald’s emergence as a top contributor, it was a worrying sign for fans in San Francisco when he was removed from yesterday’s game after just three innings. As noted by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle, Fitzgerald told reporters that his back locked up on him before the game began and worsened through the early innings. The shortstop added that he wasn’t particularly concerned about the situation given that he deals with similar back issues “every year,” but nonetheless noted that he’s set to undergo an MRI today.

3. NL Wild Card race heats up:

The race for the third NL Wild Card spot figures to get very interesting this weekend as the two most likely clubs to grab that spot, the Braves and Mets, are both staring down tough matchups. Atlanta is welcoming the 87-59 Dodgers to Truist Park for a four-game set that begins tonight, while the Mets are ticketed for a three-game set in Philadelphia against the 88-58 Phillies. With the Braves (79-67) just one game back of the Mets (80-66), both series against the NL’s top dogs are particularly pivotal.

It’s also worth noting that the Diamondbacks (82-64) and Padres (82-65) hold the top two Wild Card spots by margins that are hardly insurmountable, and a free-fall by either club could shake up the race in a big way. The only other club with even a 1% chance of winning a Wild Card spot per FanGraphs is the Cubs, who took two of three from the Dodgers earlier this week to stay alive but face a five-game deficit that leaves them needing a miracle to get back into the race.

Why The Nationals Could Pursue A Juan Soto Reunion

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The regular season hasn’t even drawn to a close yet, but there’s already ample anticipation regarding what a potential Juan Soto free agency will look like. The 26-year-old superstar will hit the market as the top free agent and one of the most coveted talents in the history of free agency. A bidding war between the Yankees and Mets is already widely expected, and big-money clubs like the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants have also been speculated as potential landing spots. Nary a major free agent goes by without Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at least throwing his hat into the ring. Other clubs will surely be in the mix.

Among the other potential suitors, writes Jorge Castillo of ESPN, could be Soto’s original club. The Nationals “would love a reunion” with Soto, reports Castillo, though it’s not yet clear whether ownership will be willing to offer more than they did when Soto rejected a 15-year, $440MM extension. That decision floored many fans, but it’s proved prudent in the long run. That 15-year term would’ve included Soto’s final two arbitration seasons. He earned a combined $54MM in those two seasons anyhow. Soto need “only” top the remaining $386MM to come out ahead on the gambit, and it would be stunning if he fell short of that mark, given his age, track record and sensational platform season for free agency.

Could that offer still come from the Nationals? It’s impossible to know precisely where the Lerner family (who own the Nationals) lie in terms of their comfort level, but there’s reason to believe they could put forth an even larger offer than last time.

For one, the Nats were in the nascent stages of a rebuild when they made that original offer to Soto. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner had been traded to the Dodgers at the prior season’s deadline. The Nationals weren’t close to competing then but are exponentially closer to doing so now, thanks in no small part to the return they received from trading Soto in the first place. MacKenzie Gore has seized a rotation spot. CJ Abrams has solidified himself as their shortstop, second-half slump notwithstanding. Outfielder James Wood was ranked the top prospect in baseball when he debuted in July. Fellow outfielder Robert Hassell III and left-hander Jarlin Susana are still in the minors.

It also bears emphasizing that the Lerner family was exploring a potential sale of the team at the time. That process began early in 2022. Several potential ownership groups spoke to the current owners about the possibility, but two years later, managing principal owner Mark Lerner (the son of the late Ted Lerner, who passed away in 2023) publicly stated that his family is no longer looking to find a buyer. “We have determined, our family has determined, that we are not going to sell the team,” Lerner told the Washington Post in February.

That shift in long-term planning obviously carries ramifications with regard to how the Lerner family might allocate its resources. While putting forth a $400MM+ offer amid a potential sale process shows a clear willingness to spend, there were also presumably limits as to how much money ownership wanted to put on the long-term books. Any interested buyers would effectively be on the hook for paying out the remainder of that sum, after all — particularly since the offer reportedly did not contain any deferred money (a departure from their prior big-money contracts, which nearly all included deferrals).

Now, more than two years after that extension offer was made, the Nats are closer to contention and have a far cleaner payroll outlook. This is the final season of Patrick Corbin’s six-year contract. The only players guaranteed any money beyond the current year are Stephen Strasburg, whose career is over but who is still signed through 2026, and catcher Keibert Ruiz, whose relatively modest $50MM extension runs through 2030 and comes with a $6.25MM average annual value. Consider that at their peak in 2019, the Nationals finished the season with a hefty $205MM payroll, per Cot’s Contracts. The Nats can absolutely afford to make a competitive offer and build out a team around him and the rest of their emerging core.

On that note, while any team would move pieces around to make room for Soto in its outfield mix, that likely wouldn’t even be necessary for Washington. The Nats currently have Wood, defensive standout Jacob Young and top prospect Dylan Crews in the outfield. Young is an elite defender but carries just a .255/.315/.336 batting line on the season. He could easily be shifted to a fourth outfield role, or he could play center regularly while the trio of Wood, Crews and Soto rotated through the two corner spots and designated hitter. Getting at-bats for all of those names wouldn’t be particularly challenging.

On top of all that, the Nats themselves still know Soto as well as or better than any team in the game. The majority of the team’s key figures were all in place when they originally signed and developed Soto. Mike Rizzo has been the Nats’ president of baseball operations and general manager since being hired back in 2009, when Soto was 11 years old. The Lerner family has owned the Nats since the former Expos moved from Montreal to D.C. in 2006. Davey Martinez managed every game of Soto’s big league career before he was traded to the Padres. There are of course others in the organization, ranging from coaches to scouts to executives, who are holdovers from Soto’s days in D.C.

The broader question is likely one of whether Soto would want to return to a Nationals club that doesn’t have the look and feel of a present-day contender. He’d need to buy into the team’s farm system and the future and upside of players like Wood, Crews, Abrams, Gore, top prospect Brady House and others. His familiarity with Rizzo and particularly Martinez (with whom he’d interact on a daily basis) would certainly be a prominent factor, but Soto has also surely built rapport with key officials in both San Diego and the Bronx as well. Unless the Lerner family absolutely blew every other bidder out of the water, Soto going back to Washington would likely need to be at least somewhat based on nostalgia and fond memories of his original organization.

Still just 25 years old (26 in October), Soto is poised to land the largest contract ever signed by a position player — likely the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value. Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700MM deal is the current benchmark, although given the colossal slate of deferrals on the deal, the contract’s net present value is nowhere close to that total sum; Ohtani’s deal comes with a $46MM luxury hit, and the MLBPA calculated the NPV to be $437.5MM.

Some might wonder whether Soto and agent Scott Boras would consider a similar deal, though Boras’ comments in the aftermath of that Ohtani deal suggest otherwise. Speaking with Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Boras suggested that the deflated NPV of Ohtani’s contract was generally underwhelming for a player of his caliber: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.” Readers can form their own opinions on the merit of that stance, but it seems to be a clear indicator that Boras will be looking to set a more concrete new precedent in terms of present-day value when he takes his own unicorn free agent to the market this winter.

Soto is already a four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner (he’ll win a fifth this season), a World Series champion and a Home Run Derby champion. He’s a lifetime .285/.421/.533 hitter in the majors, and he’s currently enjoying the best 162-game season of his career, on a rate basis. He’s slashed .289/.418/.580 with a career-high 39 home runs while walking in 18% of his plate appearances against just a 16.2% strikeout rate. He’s on track for a fifth straight season walking more often than he’s struck out.

By measure of Statcast, Soto ranks in the 94th percentile or better among all MLB players in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA and walk rate. He’s ultra-durable, averaging 155 games per season from 2021-23, and will match or exceed that pace again in 2024, barring a late injury. Defense has been a knock on him in the past, but Soto has delivered the best defensive grades of his career this season. Statcast credits him with 97th percentile arm strength. He has below-average but not plodding speed, which does limit his range and restrict him to the outfield corners.

The Nats and other clubs know all this quite well, of course. Soto is due for a record-setting contract. Everyone expects as much. The incumbent Yankees figure to be viewed as the favorites, but competition will be steep, and there are plenty of reasons to think Soto’s original club could emerge as a genuine threat in the bidding war to come.

Brewers Activate Enoli Paredes From 60-Day IL

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The Brewers reinstated reliever Enoli Paredes from the 60-day injured list. He rejoins the bullpen for tonight’s game in San Francisco. Milwaukee optioned Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move. To open a 40-man roster spot, the Brewers transferred southpaw Rob Zastryzny to the 60-day IL.

Paredes has been down since early July on account of forearm inflammation. Milwaukee moved the righty to the 60-day IL when they activated DL Hall last month. Paredes, who signed a minor league deal last November, has gotten good results in 14 appearances since the Brewers selected his contract in May. He’s allowed just two runs through 16 2/3 innings, although his 12:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t particularly encouraging.

That’s broadly in line with Paredes’ career work. He pitched with the Astros between 2020-22 and managed a decent 3.90 earned run average despite huge walk tallies. Paredes has been utterly dominant in Triple-A this season, striking out nearly 40% of opponents with a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. He’s out of options, so the Brewers can’t send him back to Nashville without running him through waivers.

Zastryzny has been out since July 25 with elbow tendinitis. The injury cropped back up when he tried to start a rehab assignment last month. Today’s transfer officially rules Zastryzny out until the final week of the regular season. It’s not clear if he’ll be healthy enough to return this year. Working mostly as an opener, the lefty has logged 7 2/3 frames of one-run ball since Milwaukee called him up at the end of June.

Dodgers Sign Zach Logue To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers signed left-hander Zach Logue to a minor league contract. He has been assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he’ll make his organizational debut tonight (h/t to OKC broadcaster Alex Freedman).

Logue elected free agency a week ago after being waived by the Braves. The 28-year-old had spent nearly the entire season with Atlanta’s Triple-A team. The Braves selected his contract in July but never got him into an MLB game. They designated him for assignment on September 1 when they signed John Brebbia.

A Kentucky product, Logue was one of four players whom the Blue Jays dealt to the A’s for Matt Chapman shortly after the lockout. The southpaw pitched at the major league level with Oakland in 2022 and had a brief stint with the Tigers last season. Opponents hit him hard, as Logue allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine across 68 innings. He struck out a below-average 17% of batters faced and allowed home runs far too frequently (2.12 per nine innings).

While Logue has yet to fool MLB hitters, he has had a very nice year in Triple-A. He worked in a swing capacity with Atlanta’s top affiliate, starting 12 of 23 appearances. Logue worked 90 2/3 frames of 2.68 ERA ball — the best ERA of any Triple-A pitcher with at least 75 innings. He struck out a solid 23.5% of opponents while keeping his walks to a modest 7.4% clip. He also had a lot more success keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 0.79 home runs per nine.

Logue will make the jump to the Pacific Coast League for the final two weeks of the minor league schedule. He’s ineligible for the postseason but could be an option for a spot start or long relief work in the regular season — especially if the Dodgers secure a first-round bye and want to rest their presumptive playoff arms in the final weekend. Logue would qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason if the Dodgers do not call him up.

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