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Latest On Cardinals’ Bullpen Trade Candidates

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Cardinals lefty Steven Matz has drawn some trade interest as the July 31 deadline inches closer, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (video link, bullpen talk beginning around the 4:10 mark). “There are a handful of teams at least poking around on Matz,” per Goold. He adds that the Cardinals will also likely be open to offers on righty Phil Maton but would need a very strong offer to trade closer Ryan Helsley, who could receive a qualifying offer if he’s not moved.

[Related: St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Outlook]

Matz, 34, is in the final season of a four-year, $44MM contract. He’s being paid $12MM this season and has about $4.65MM of that sum yet to be paid out. By the time deadline day rolls around, he’ll have about $3.8MM to go on that contract.

While the four-year deal hasn’t panned out as hope — Matz was injured/ineffective in both 2022 and 2024 — the 2025 season has been a good one for the veteran lefty. Matz has pitched well in two starts (nine innings, one run, 11 strikeouts, no walks) but has spent the majority of the season working in a multi-inning relief role. He’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 51 innings overall, fanning 21.4% of his opponents and limiting walks at a terrific 4.3% clip. He’s hit a rough patch of late, allowing nine runs in his past dozen innings, but it’s generally been a nice rebound year for the southpaw.

Goold adds that Matz has drawn interest from teams looking to fill a variety of roles. He obviously has a long track record as a starter and is pitching in multi-inning stints right now. It’d be possible to stretch Matz back out as a relatively under-the-radar target for teams seeking to fortify the back end of the rotation. Conversely, Matz has clear value in his current multi-inning role, and he has the stuff and results to succeed in a more traditional single-inning setup role.

Maton, 32, has been one of the top bargain pickups of the offseason. He surprisingly languished on the free-agent market into March despite a nice 2024 season — really, a nice three-year run from 2022-24 — and ultimately signed for a modest $2MM guarantee with the Cards. He’s been a key arm in the St. Louis bullpen, pitching 35 1/3 innings with a 2.55 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate rate and a 9.5% walk rate. That strikeout rate would be a career-best in a 162-game season.

The lack of interest in Maton may have stemmed from some worrying trends with regard to his velocity. He’s never been a hard-thrower, but last year’s 88.7 mph average on his cutter and 87.5 mph average on his sinker were steps down from the prior season (and a career-worst with regard to his sinker). He’s added about two miles per hour to each pitch in 2025, sitting 90.4 mph on his cutter and 89.5 mph on his sinker.

It’s still below-average velocity, but this is the fourth straight year that Maton has enjoyed success with meager heat on his pitches — and he’s only owed about $774K more of this year’s salary as of this writing ($634K after deadline day). Budget-crunched teams seeking a reliable setup arm should have interest. Maton has already tied a career-high with 18 holds, and he’s picked up a pair of saves as well.

As for the 31-year-old Helsley, he’s enjoying a strong season overall but hasn’t matched his 2024 dominance. Last year, the flamethrowing righty notched a 2.04 ERA with an NL-best 49 saves while fanning 29.7% of his opponents. This season, he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 19 saves. He’s still owed about $3.17MM of this year’s $8.2MM salary (a number that’ll dip to $2.6MM by the day of the deadline itself).

Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $21.05MM. That number figures to rise this season. It’d be a steep price to pay for one year of any reliever, but there’s a good chance Helsley would still reject the QO and look for a lucrative multi-year contract. He won’t command an AAV that strong on a longer-term deal, but this offseason will represent his best chance to cash in on a long-term deal.

There’ll surely be some temptation to accept that sizable one-year deal and test the open market post-2026, without the burden of draft pick compensation, but doing so runs the risk of incurring an injury or major downturn in performance next year. Relief pitching is immensely volatile on a year-to-year basis. There’s also the looming specter of a potential lockout in the 2026-27 offseason, given the Dec. 2026 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. Having a multi-year deal in place is surely preferable to being a free agent in such an uncertain offseason.

If Helsley were to reject a QO and sign for more than $50MM total — which seems quite attainable — the Cardinals would receive a compensatory pick after the first round in the 2026 draft. Any return on Helsley would need to reflect that. It’s also possible the Cardinals have some hope of keeping Helsley, whether via that one-year QO or perhaps by negotiating a multi-year extension after making said offer. Helsley has said in the past that he’d love to stay in St. Louis long-term.

Any decisions on Helsley — and, to a lesser extent, Matz and Maton — will hinge on the Cardinals’ play in the early stages coming out of the All-Star break. At 51-46 on the season, they’re currently 6.5 games back of the division-leading Cubs but only 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Cardinals open the season’s second half with a pivotal three-game road set against a D-backs club in a similar position of needing to string together some wins to avoid a notable deadline sell-off. The Cardinals, 22-26 on the road versus 29-20 at home, will send Andre Pallante, Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas to the mound. Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Merrill Kelly. The Cardinals then head to Colorado for three games before hosting the Padres and Marlins in their final two series prior to the July 31 trade deadline. With a strong performance over the next 12 games, they could opt to hold onto most of their veterans and look to add pieces, while a string of series losses could be the deciding factor in trading away short-term veterans.

Cardinals Sign Phil Maton

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The Cardinals announced this morning that they’ve signed right-hander Phil Maton to a one-year deal. The Paragon Sports International client will reportedly make $2MM. Left-hander Bailey Horn was designated for assignment to make room for Maton on the club’s 40-man roster.

Maton, 32 later this month, was among the better relief arms still available on the free agent market at this late point in the calendar. Drafted in the 20th round by the Padres back in 2015, Maton will suit up with the Cardinals for his ninth MLB season and hope to continue a stretch of quality work that began with the Astros back in 2022. The first five seasons of Maton’s career saw him struggle despite solid peripherals, with a subpar 4.76 ERA in 215 1/3 innings of work across 209 appearances. He struck out 26.4% of opponents during that time while walking 9.2%. Those numbers were decent enough to keep Maton rostered with San Diego and Cleveland over the years, but he eventually wound up in Houston late in the 2021 season.

The righty’s middling results continued with the Astros through the end of 2021, but by the start of the 2022 season a switch seemed to have flipped. His 25.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over the past three seasons aren’t markedly different than what they were earlier in his career, but the veteran’s results have improved drastically as he’s posted a 3.50 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 195 2/3 innings of work across 206 games.

After hitting free agency for the first time in his career prior to the 2024 season, Maton signed on with the Rays but struggled with a 4.58 ERA in 40 appearances for them last year. Fortunately for the right-hander, he was traded to the Mets for the stretch run and turned a corner, dominating to the tune of a 2.51 ERA across his final 31 appearances of the regular season.

Now, Maton is headed to St. Louis as the first and perhaps only major-league free agent signing the club will make this offseason. The Cardinals’ plans for the winter were largely hamstrung by an inability to find a trade partner for veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, resulting in an extremely quiet offseason that was defined most by the departures of key veterans like Paul Goldschmidt in free agency.

Despite the Cardinals’ lack of activity this offseason, they’ve long been known to want a veteran relief arm who could fill the role Andrew Kittredge played last year and create a bridge between closer Ryan Helsley and the rest of a relatively young late-inning mix. They now appear to have found that player in Maton, who has just five career saves but has recorded 42 holds over the past three seasons.

Making room for Maton on the 40-man roster is Horn, a fifth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2020 draft. The 27-year-old lefty was traded to the Cubs in exchange for Ryan Tepera at the 2021 trade deadline and was eventually added to his new club’s 40-man roster, but did not make his big league debut in Chicago. He was traded back to the White Sox last February in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for the return of Cody Bellinger, but was then designated for assignment and traded to Boston in April. He made his big league debut for the Red Sox last June but struggled badly with a 6.50 ERA and 7.00 FIP in 18 innings of work.

During the offseason, Horn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox but picked up off waivers by the Tigers in November. He lasted on Detroit’s 40-man roster for just a month and was claimed off waivers by St. Louis in early January. He’ll now likely return to the waiver wire for the fourth time in the last 11 months. The Cardinals will have one week to either trade Horn or put him through waivers, where he can be claimed by any club willing to offer him a spot on their 40-man roster.

If Horn clears waivers, the Cardinals will get the opportunity to outright him to the minors as a non-roster depth option. That said, Horn is an optionable left-handed reliever who averages 95 mph with his heater and has a track record of missing bats in the upper minors. He could make him an attractive candidate for a waiver claim despite his lackluster results in the majors last year.

Katie Woo of The Athletic was first on the terms.

Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets

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As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

Blue Jays Interested In Several Free Agent Relievers

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The Blue Jays had one of baseball’s worst bullpens in 2024, as injuries and under-performance wreaked havoc on what was a solid relief corps as recently as the 2023 campaign.  Toronto’s steps to overhaul the pen have thus far been more focused on subtraction than addition, as the Jays have parted ways with the likes of former closer Jordan Romano, Genesis Cabrera, and Dillon Tate.

While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM.  This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald.  ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.

Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks.  Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.

The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market.  As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals.  Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.

Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role.  Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.

Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career.  Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.

Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona.  Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.

Mets Decline Team Option On Phil Maton

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The Mets have declined their $7.75MM team option on right-hander Phil Maton, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The 31-year-old will receive a $250K buyout and return to free agency.

The decision isn’t much of a surprise, even though Maton pitched quite well for the club down the stretch this season. The veteran righty posted a 2.58 ERA with a nearly identical 2.57 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work after being acquired from the Rays in early July, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. Those excellent numbers may have been worth considering the $7.5MM decision on his option if they were held throughout the season, but that unfortunately was not the case.

Not only did Maton struggle badly in the playoffs, with an 8.53 ERA in six appearances for the Mets this season, but his brief tenure with the Rays was something of a disaster. His 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 frames with the club was 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and his 5.63 FIP was 42% below par by measure of FIP-. He struck out just 19.7% of batters faced during his time with Tampa Bay, but even more concerning was the fact that his walk rate ballooned to 11.8% during that time. In all, that leaves Maton to enter free agency with a platform season that casts him as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever with a 3.66 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 71 appearances this year.

That’s more or less par for the course for Maton throughout his eight seasons in the majors. The right-hander sports a career ERA of 4.16 (100 ERA+) with a 4.00 FIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. The best season of Maton’s career came just last year with the Astros, his third season in Houston after the club acquired him from Cleveland midway through the 2021 campaign in the trade that made Myles Straw a Guardian. In 2023, Maton struck out 27% of opponents while walking 9.1% en route to a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings of work.

A club that buys into Maton’s 2023 performance and his stretch run during the regular season with New York this year could potentially look at the right-hander as a late-inning option, although it’s possible he’s best suited to serve as a steadying, veteran presence in a bullpen like those of the Tigers, Cubs, and Rockies that has relied heavily on relatively young and inexperienced players. All three of those teams figure to be in the market for relief help this winter, but that can also be said of virtually every team in baseball. That should leave Maton comfortably in position to land a big league deal this winter, even if it doesn’t come at an AAV north of $7MM like this team option would have if exercised.

As for the Mets, Edwin Diaz remains locked in as the club’s closer and players like Jose Butto, Sean Reid-Foley, and Alex Young all impressed with the club this year. While it wouldn’t be a shock to see them look for bullpen upgrades this winter (particularly from the left side), they’ve already begun to make additions with their recent deal to land right-hander Dylan Covey. The signing of Covey, who has struggled in the majors but spent time both as a relief arm and a starter, could signal that the Mets don’t plan to spend much of their considerable payroll flexibility this winter on relievers as they look to reconstruct their rotation, retain first baseman Pete Alonso, and get into the thick of the bidding for Juan Soto.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Cubs are such an interesting case right now. They’re not performing well, but they’re also not built to sell. They’ve got a lot of players slated to return from the IL in the next few weeks and they’ve got an easy strength of schedule after the deadline. They’ve got a strong farm system and some positional surpluses that they could deal from, but they’re up against the tax that they’ve self-imposed as a hard cap. They’re not too far from playoff contention but they’ve got a bunch of teams ahead of them. What should they do? (27:15)
  • With the trade deadline approaching fast and the Tigers’ recent play, could they be potential buyers if they continue this trend up to the deadline? (34:25)
  • If the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech, just how improved could they expect to be? (40:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Reed Garrett To Undergo MRI On Right Elbow

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The Mets announced today that right-hander Phil Maton has been added to the active roster after he was acquired from the Rays yesterday. They also recalled left-hander Danny Young. To open spots for those two, the club optioned righty Eric Orze and placed righty Reed Garrett on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation.

It’s unknown how severe Garrett’s elbow problem is, but more information will be forthcoming. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X, the righty complained of forearm tightness last night and is now slated for an MRI today. It’s possible that his elbow issue has led to a downturn in recent results, as DiComo points out that Garrett has had some poor results lately.

Prior to that recent slide, Garrett had been a godsend for a Mets bullpen that has been an issue all year. Through May 22, he had tossed 26 innings with just three earned runs allowed, leading to an ERA of 1.04. His 11.3% walk rate in that time was a tad high but he had a massive 40.3% strikeout rate and a solid 42% ground ball rate. For a 31-year-old that the Mets claimed off waivers from the Orioles last summer, he seemed like a tremendous find.

He has a 7.88 ERA in 16 innings since then, which is a small sample but his rate stats have also changed. His 25.6% strikeout rate in that time is still strong but a big drop from where he was before and his walk rate also ticked up to 12.8%. His velocity didn’t seem to suffer, as it’s actually ticked up as the season has gone along. His fastball averaged 95.8 miles per hour in April and ramped up each month to land at 98.3 so far in July.

Despite the recent struggles, the Mets don’t want more challenges in assembling their bullpen. The team’s relievers have a combined 4.24 ERA that’s 20th in the majors and they have been weakened as the season has gone along. Drew Smith and Brooks Raley have already gone down to season-ending surgeries while Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are each on the IL with shoulder injuries.

The Mets are 45-45 and just 1.5 games back of a playoff spot. Upgrading the bullpen has reportedly been a target area for them and, as mentioned, they already acquired Maton in an attempt to bolster the group. If Garrett needs to miss any time, it would only increase the amount of work the front office will need to do in patching together the bullpen.

For Garrett personally, it would be a significant blow if he ends up needing to miss any notable stretch of time. He has bounced around the baseball world as he has struggled to establish himself, spending time with the Rangers, Tigers, Nationals, Orioles and with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Earlier this year, his utter dominance seemed to the start of a late-bloomer breakout but then the results tapered off and now he’ll have to see what the MRI machine finds in his elbow.

Mets Acquire Phil Maton From Rays

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The Mets have acquired right-hander Phil Maton from the Rays, per announcements from both clubs. The Rays will receive a player to be named later or cash considerations. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said the club is taking on all of Maton’s remaining salary, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. The Mets designated left-hander Joey Lucchesi for assignment to get Maton onto their 40-man roster. The Rays recalled right-hander Manuel Rodríguez to take Maton’s place on their active roster.

Maton, 31, signed with the Rays as a free agent in the offseason. The two sides agreed to a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee, in the form of a $6.25MM salary and a $250K buyout on a $7.75MM club option for 2025.

Thus far, that deal hasn’t played out the way the Rays had hoped. Maton has tossed 35 1/3 innings, allowing 4.58 earned runs per nine. He has struck out just 19.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.8% clip. His 49.5% ground ball rate is strong but he’s also allowed six home runs on the year, a rate of 16.2% per fly ball.

That performance is significantly worse than what Maton provided in recent seasons. From 2020 through 2023, with Cleveland and Houston, he tossed 220 innings with a 3.93 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. He was also quite good at avoiding damage, with his average exit velocity being among the best in the league in his career.

The Mets are essentially buying low in this deal, getting a veteran reliever without giving up any prospect talent. Perhaps that will change if the PTBNL turns out to be a player of significance, but they may be effectively buying Maton.

The bullpen has been the biggest issue for the Mets this season. Their relievers have a collective 4.16 ERA, which is in the bottom half of the league. A couple of their better relievers have been lost to season-ending elbow surgeries, with Brooks Raley and Drew Smith both done for the year. Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are also on the injured list due to shoulder issues.

Despite those bullpen struggles, the club has stayed in the playoff race. They are currently 44-45, just 2.5 games back of the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. It was reported last week that the club was going into the deadline with a buyer’s mentality and could focus on bullpen help, with this move fitting into that framing.

Obviously, the Mets will be banking on Maton’s struggles this year being a bit of a blip and he’s already shown some positive signs of a turnaround. After a four-run outing on June 9, he was sitting on an ERA of 6.56. But over the past month, he has only allowed one earned run in 12 innings, striking out 11 opponents while giving out just one walk. Even if he can’t fully maintain that level of dominance, it’s not unreasonable to expect something better than his season-long numbers.

For the Rays, they have been doing some modest selling of late, though nothing that would necessarily tank their chances of competing here in 2024. They flipped starter Aaron Civale to the Brewers, netting a prospect and some cost savings. But that didn’t really downgrade the rotation as they were able to call up Shane Baz to take Civale’s rotation spot. They are 44-46 and 5.5 games back in the playoff race, giving them a chance of climbing back into it.

Now they have been able to shed a bit more money, getting rid of a player that has largely been underperforming on the season, recent hot streak notwithstanding. The Rays are generally quite good at finding or developing relievers and Rodríguez could fill in for Maton, as he has a 2.79 ERA in the majors this year and a 1.09 mark in Triple-A.

Speaking of that money, the Mets will be taking on more than the Rays are saving, thanks to the competitive balance tax. Maton is still owed about $2.74MM on his salary, as well as the $250K buyout. The Rays will scrub that from their books but the Mets are a third-time CBT payor and well over the fourth and final tax threshold. That means they are paying a 110% tax on any additional spending, so will be actually paying around $6MM to get Maton on the club for the final few months of the season.

Under owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have been pretty unafraid of spending money and are once again flexing some financial muscle to upgrade the club. The Mets have been walking a fine line since about this time last year, looking to keep the big league club in contention without significantly harming the pipeline of young talent in the farm system and also trying to avoid adding long-term costs to their ledger. They still spent money in the offseason but limited themselves to short-term deals and this move is essentially a midseason version of that.

The cost is primarily financial but they also could lose Lucchesi. The lefty made one spot start for the big league club this year but has primarily been kept on optional assignment. He has made 15 Triple-A starts this year with a 4.20 earned run average, 17.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.

Lucchesi is a decent depth option but he may have been on the road to getting squeezed off the roster anyway. He is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options next year. The Mets have also had improved rotation depth as the season has gone along. David Peterson and Kodai Senga each started the season on the injured list but Peterson has since returned and Senga recently started a rehab assignment. The Mets have also seen Christian Scott jump up from the minors and take hold of a rotation spot.

The current rotation consists of Scott, Peterson, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea, with Senga on his way back. José Buttó and Adrian Houser are currently in the big league bullpen but either could be considered rotation depth and the club also has Tylor Megill on optional assignment. That’s enough starting depth that the club is reportedly considering trading someone from that group while still trying to compete here in 2024, much like the Rays did with the aforementioned Civale deal.

Whether that comes to fruition or not, Lucchesi was largely buried in that rotation picture. The Mets have bumped him off the roster and will now have five days to see if they can work out a trade. DFA limbo can last for a week, but the waiver process takes 48 hours.

The lefty has some track record as a viable big league starter, as he posted an ERA just over 4.00 with the Padres in 2018 and 2019, logging 130 innings or more in both of those seasons. He then struggled in 2020 and got flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade in January of 2021. He required Tommy John surgery that summer and missed most of the 2021-2022 seasons. He returned to the mound last year and his results were fairly comparable to this year. He was mostly kept on optional assignment and posted a 4.74 ERA in Triple-A.

Perhaps a club in need of some starting depth will take a flier on Lucchesi since he can be optioned for the remainder of this year and can also be retained beyond this season via arbitration. But as mentioned, he will be out of options next year and will have less roster flexibility going forward. If he were to clear waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having more than three years of service time. But since he has less than five years, electing free agency would mean walking away from the rest of his $1.65MM salary. In that instance, he would likely accept an outright assignment and stick with the Mets as non-roster depth.

Rays Sign Phil Maton

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The Rays bulked up their bullpen Wednesday, finalizing their previously reported one-year contract with free agent righty Phil Maton.  The Paragon Sports International client is reportedly guaranteed $6.5MM, which takes the form of a $6.25MM salary and a $250K buyout on a $7.75MM club option for the 2025 season.  Tampa Bay transferred left-hander Shane McClanahan, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Maton on the 40-man roster.

The Cardinals, Phillies, and Yankees have been linked to Maton’s market this winter, but the reliever will now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his age-31 season.  Maton has seven years of MLB experience, breaking into the big leagues with San Diego in 2017 and then landing in Cleveland and Houston.  Maton had a 4.76 ERA over 215 1/3 innings in the 2017-21 seasons, but a 3.68 ERA in that same span and excellent spin rates and soft-contact numbers indicated that the ceiling was higher on the righty’s performance.

The results began to show over Maton’s last two seasons, both with the Astros.  He delivered a 3.84 ERA in 65 2/3 innings in 2022 and then followed up even more strongly with a 3.00 ERA over 66 frames this past year.  As per Statcast, Maton had the second-best hard-hit ball rate of any qualified pitcher in baseball in 2023, and the spin rates on his curveball and fastball were both in at least the 98th percentile of all pitchers.

Walks have been an issue for Maton, and his above-average but not standout barrel rates indicate that batters can hit for power on the rare occasions when they actually make solid contact on Maton’s offerings.  Still, between his ability to generate soft contact and his above-average strikeout rates, Maton has rather quietly been one of the more effective relievers in baseball over the last two seasons.  This success has also extended into the postseason, as while injuries forced Maton to miss the Astros’ 2022 World Series run, he has a sparking 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career playoff innings.

Given the Rays’ success at helping pitchers achieve higher levels of performance, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Maton at least continue or even improve on his strong numbers from 2022-23.  Maton figures to essentially act as the replacement for Robert Stephenson, a reclamation project-turned-high leverage reliever after joining the Rays last summer.

Stephenson parlayed his spectacular four-month run in Tampa into a three-year, $33MM free agent deal with the Angels.  Jake Diekman also signed with the Mets, Andrew Kittredge was traded to the Cardinals, and Jalen Beeks and Josh Fleming were both let go at the start of free agency, leaving the Rays with some holes to fill in the relief corps.  Pete Fairbanks figures to be the team’s primary closer again, and though the Rays are traditionally pretty flexible with their bullpen roles, Maton will likely stick to set-up duty since he has only one career save.

According to Roster Resource, Tampa Bay has a projected $93.3MM payroll, which would already be the highest payroll in Rays franchise history even before Maton’s deal is added to the tally.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander said in October that the club was open to spending at a (comparatively) higher level to help keep their core in place and to make a deeper playoff run, though the Rays did move Tyler Glasnow and his $25MM salary to the Dodgers in a trade.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the two sides were nearing a deal (via X). Robert Murray of FanSided reported (on X) the terms of the deal, while Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the specific year-to-year breakdown (X link).

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