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Harper Leads Hefty Slate Of Future Phillies Contract Commitments

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Phillies:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Aaron Nola, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, Scott Kingery, Odubel Herrera and David Robertson

(click to expand/view detail list)

Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

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With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

  • Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
  • Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
  • Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
  • Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
  • Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
  • Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
  • Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
  • Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
  • Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
  • Padres: 2007  (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
  • Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
  • Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
  • Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
  • Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.

Phillies Expect Seranthony Dominguez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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After being stranded in his native Dominican Republic for several weeks because of travel restrictions, Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez has returned to the United States, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports. Now that Dominguez is back, the Phillies expect that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery on his torn right ulnar collateral ligament sometime soon – perhaps as early as this month – according to Gelb.

Surgery has long seemed like the probable route for Dominguez, as doctors recommended he undergo the procedure back in late March. Because Dominguez has had to wait so long since then, though, his delay in returning to a major league mound will drag on for an especially lengthy period of time. The typical Tommy John recovery takes 12 to 18 months, so he’ll miss all of this season (provided there is one) and could sit out most or all of 2021.

It has been exactly one full year since Dominguez last took the hill on June 5, 2019, after which his UCL injury cut him down. The 25-year-old concluded 2019 with 24 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA/4.02 FIP ball and 10.58 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, and a 54.5 percent groundball rate. The flamethrowing Dominguez burst on the scene during the previous season with a 2.95 ERA/2.85 FIP, 11.48 K/9 against 3.41 BB/9, and a 55.7 percent grounder mark over 58 frames.

Quick Hits: A’s, Phillies, Yankees, Mets

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Checking in on a few MLB teams…

  • Athletics owner John J. Fisher made the widely panned decision last week to stop paying minor leaguers at the end of May. Industry sources told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle they’re of the belief that “the front office was tremendously disappointed” in A’s ownership’s call. It’s a choice that Slusser notes could have a negative effect on the A’s after next week’s five-round draft, as various minor leaguers and agents told Slusser the A’s would not be their No. 1 choice. However, as Slusser writes, Oakland still has a chance to land talent if it’s willing to pay enough, and if it presents the best opportunity to the player.
  • With no season underway yet, the Phillies are in cost-cutting mode. Owner John Middleton told full-time employees in an email Monday that the team’s projecting losses of “substantially more than $100 million” in 2020, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. As a result, anyone in the team’s business department who’s on a $90K salary or above must take a pay cut. The Phillies will continue to provide health insurance, pension and 401(k) benefits to their full-time staff. However, because there may not be fans in the stands this year, the team’s facing “an enormous financial challenge” according to Middleton, who wrote that “approximately 40% of our total annual revenue is generated by attendance — tickets, food and merchandise concessions, parking and sponsorships.” Of course, the lack of fans is one of the reasons the owners have pushed for a far smaller schedule this year. They and the players have not been on the same wavelength in negotiations, though.
  • Teams are expected to have a few extra rosters if there is a season in 2020. Between that and likely a lack of a minor league campaign, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News has been profiling Yankees pitching prospects who could get to the majors sooner than expected this year. Right-handers Deivi Garcia (link) and Clarke Schmidt (link) are among them. Garcia (No. 3) ranks a bit below Schmidt (No. 2) on Baseball America’s list of Yankees farmhands, and the scouts Ackert spoke with are optimistic they’ll turn into capable major league contributors.
  • The Mets have reopened their spring training complex in Port St. Lucie, Fla., to players for the first time since late March, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. Four to six players, including catcher Wilson Ramos, have resumed training at the facility. It’s an encouraging sign that they’re getting back to work, though DiComo points out that the players must follow “MLB, CDC, and local and state safety protocols.”

Phillies Release T.J. Rivera

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Infielder T.J. Rivera was among the minor league players the Phillies released Friday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s not yet known which other players the Phillies cut.

Rivera signed a minors pact with the Phillies back in December, at which point he was coming off a respectable offensive run with the division-rival Mets. The 31-year-old was a .304/.335/,445 hitter with a meager 14.2 percent strikeout rate in 344 plate appearances from 2016-17, though health problems have taken a sledgehammer to his career since then.

Rivera underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2017, and his Mets tenure came to a close when they released him in March 2019. He has since played with the Nationals’ Double-A affiliate, in the Puerto Rican and Dominican Winter Leagues, and with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. If another major league team does take a chance on Rivera, he’ll surely have to work his way back via the minors, where he has performed well. Rivera is the owner of a .335/.375/.490 line in 663 trips to the plate in Triple-A ball.

Which 15 Players Should The Phillies Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

The American League results are in!  Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.

Click here for previous entries in the series.  The Phillies are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents J.T. Realmuto, Jay Bruce, Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, Jose Alvarez, and David Robertson from consideration.  Bryce Harper and Jean Segura will make the protected list due to their no-trade clauses.  As Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA, Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm will also make the list.  We’ll protect a total of 11 players out of the gate:

Bryce Harper
Jean Segura
Spencer Howard
Alec Bohm
Aaron Nola
Rhys Hoskins
Scott Kingery
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin
Adam Haseley
Hector Neris

That leaves four spots for the remaining 19 players.  Check out the Phillies’ contract statuses here.

Vìctor Arano
Austin Davis
Enyel De Los Santos
Seranthony Dominguez
Edgar Garcia
Kyle Garlick
Deivy Grullon
Deolis Guerra
Cole Irvin
Andrew Knapp
Reggie McClain
Andrew McCutchen
Adam Morgan
Nick Pivetta
Roman Quinn
Robert Stock
Ranger Suarez
Vince Velasquez
Nick Williams

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Phillies should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Latest On Furloughs, Pay Cuts Among MLB Clubs

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6:09pm: The Rangers have committed to $400 a week for their minor leaguers through at least June, Levi Weaver of The Athletic was among those to report. The same goes for the Braves, per David O’Brien of The Athletic, as well as the Diamondbacks, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds.

12:59pm: The Padres will also pay their minor leaguers the $400 weekly stipend through the end of August, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets.

12:34pm: Most of MLB’s 30 organizations agreed a ways back to pay their employees through the end of May. There were instances of lengthier commitments, but May 31 was broadly used as an initial endpoint, at which time fiscal matters would be reassessed. Minor league players have been receiving $400 weekly stipends during this time, but that arrangement is also only promised through the end of May. As you’d expect, clubs have begun to inform employees (both on the business and baseball operations side) and minor leaguers of their next steps. And, as you’d expect, in some instances it’s not pretty.

Yesterday was a particularly dark day in the Athletics organization, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the team informed minor league players they will no longer be paid their stipend as of June 1. Robert Murray of The Score shares the email that was sent to Oakland minor leaguers — one which was signed by GM David Forst rather than managing partner John J. Fisher. (Forst, of course, is being asked to play the messenger in this instance and is not the one making the decisions.)

Minor league players are generally undercompensated as a whole, and the $400 weekly stipend they’ve received over the past two months will now seemingly go down as the only baseball-related compensation they’ll receive in the calendar year. Their contracts, which are in a state of suspension but not terminated, bar them from “perform[ing] services for any other Club” and also render them ineligible for unemployment benefits, per The Athletic’s Emily Waldon (Twitter link).

As for the operations side of the equation, Athletics front office personnel will be either furloughed or see their pay reduced effective June 1 and running through the end of October, The Athletic’s Alex Coffey reports (Twitter thread). She adds that the maximum cut is 33 percent, and those determinations are based on seniority. Scouts aren’t considered front-office personnel, but they’ll be hit hard as well; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that A’s amateur and pro scouts alike will be furloughed from June 16 through Oct. 31. Fisher did write a letter to the club’s fanbase confirming the dramatic cuts (Twitter link via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser), emphasizing the pain that went into the decisions and his “deep commitment to the long-term future of the A’s.”

Those cutbacks are similar to the substantial cuts the Angels put in place earlier this month, but other L.A. club isn’t taking such rash measures. The Dodgers have informed all employees earning more than $75K that they’ll be subject to pay reductions beginning June 1, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter thread). The extent of the reductions is dependent on overall salary — larger salaries get larger percentage cuts — and will be capped at 35 percent for the most part, although that they could be greater for the team’s very top executives. Those measures are being taken in an effort to avoid the type of large-scale furloughs being put in place in Oakland and Anaheim.

Across the country, the Nationals have implemented a series of partial furloughs both in baseball ops and business ops, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (Twitter thread). The Nats are still covering full benefits and haven’t made any layoffs, but they’re implementing a sequence of 10 to 30 percent reductions in pay and total hours. The Brewers, meanwhile aren’t making any baseball ops furloughs but are furloughing some business operation employees, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets.

It’s not yet clear how every organization plans to handle the minor league pay dilemma, but Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser has heard from at least three clubs that plan to continue varying levels of compensation. The Phillies will keep paying their minor leaguers through at least June, but likely at less than the current $400 stipend. The White Sox are paying $400 per week through the end of June, and the Marlins have committed to paying their minor leaguers the full $400 per week through August — the would-be conclusion of the 2020 minor league season. The Marlins already informed players earlier this month that about 40 percent of the baseball ops department will be furloughed on June 1.

Latest On Teams’ Plans For Second Spring Training

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While the league and the MLBPA have yet to reach a formal agreement on either player compensation or health/safety protocols for a rebooted 2020 season, teams are still preparing for a shortened restart of “Spring” Training — ideally beginning in mid-June. The goal is for a three-week training period to lead into an 82-game season that kicks off in early July. The latest on plans for a few NL clubs…

  • The Mets will likely hold their version of Spring Training 2.0 at their spring facility in Port St. Lucie, Fla. rather than at Citi Field in New York, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. New York City remains the U.S. epicenter for the coronavirus, and beyond the pure health aspect of the decision, staging their training camp in Florida gives the Mets access to multiple fields. As Healey notes, the Mets completed a $57MM renovation project at Clover Field back in February, which has improved the overall quality of the facilities and equipment available to Mets players — several of whom are already in Florida.
  • The Phillies are likely to remain in Philadelphia for their second wave of Spring Training, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The Phillies’ Urban Youth Academy, across the street from Citizen’s Bank Park, has two full-size fields that could be made available, and Salisbury notes that the Phils have ownership stake in their nearby Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, which could allow those parks to be used as well. Both affiliates are fewer than 70 miles away from Citizen’s Bank Park.
  • The Diamondbacks have opened Chase Field for individual workouts, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Unlike other clubs, the D-backs have the luxury of their home field and spring facility being a mere 20 miles apart. Nightengale notes that in addition to Chase Field opening up, some players are also reporting to the Salt River Fields spring facility in preparation for a second Spring Training.

Former No. 3 Pick’s Path To MLB Would Be Accelerated With Universal DH

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We’ve already sorted through the rest of the NL East (Braves, Nationals, Mets, Marlins) when looking at how the likely addition of a universal DH might impact the teams within. How might the Phillies react to the change? The Phils have a reasonably experienced lineup, with only presumptive center fielder Adam Haseley checking in at under a year of big league service time. The group was a middle-of-the-pack unit in the NL last year, ranking eighth in runs scored (774), tenth in wRC+ (91) and 11th in home runs (215).

Among in-house veterans, Jay Bruce leads the pack of DH candidates. Acquired last year shortly before Andrew McCutchen tore his ACL, Bruce continued to show off huge power but posted bottom-of-the-barrel OBP numbers: a .261 OBP and a career-low 5.7 percent walk rate. If his days an even passable OBP threat are behind him, perhaps he’s no longer suited for this role, but he’ll probably get some opportunities to bounce back. He’ll likely need a right-handed platoon partner. The Phils have no shortage of non-roster veterans who could factor into the mix, including Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Neil Walker (although Walker is a much better left-handed hitter than he is right-handed).

The bigger question in Philly, though, is whether the advent of the NL DH and the likely expansion of rosters will push top prospect Alec Bohm to the big league level. Bohm hasn’t appeared above Double-A yet, but the former No. 3 overall draft pick clobbered High-A and Double-A pitching last year, hitting at a combined .305/.378/.518 clip in 540 plate appearances. Bohm walked in 10.6 percent of his plate appearances against a mere 13.5 percent strikeout rate. There’s no guarantee that any minor league games will be played in 2020, and he was widely expected to debut at some point in 2020 anyhow. Given Bohm’s status as a consensus top 60 prospect, the Phillies can’t be keen on him missing a year’s worth of games.

If Bohm holds his own in the Majors, the benefits to the Phillies are substantial. Jean Segura could move from third base to second base, freeing Scott Kingery up to embrace a super-utility role or simply allowing him to supplant Haseley as the everyday center fielder. Kingery rated well at virtually every position he played in 2019, and his bat is an upgrade over that of Haseley. With a DH spot added, there’s room for each of Bohm, Segura and Kingery to regularly factor into the lineup.

It’s true that Haseley’s glove graded out excellently last year, so perhaps the Phils would prefer to keep him in there as often as possible — particularly against righties. In that case, both Haseley and Kingery could log outfield reps on days when McCutchen is the DH, allowing his surgically repaired knee the occasional rest. Bohm could play third base on those days with Segura at second. At the very least, a productive debut from Bohm would give incoming skipper Joe Girardi the “good” types of problems/questions that every manager hopes to have.

There could be other options in the organization. Expanded rosters surely give Nick Williams a greater chance of making the club, though he’s rather buried on the outfield depth chart. The right-handed-hitting Kyle Garlick could see some increased opportunities, and while Nick Martini isn’t on the 40-man roster at present, he’s an OBP machine who would make for a nice bench bat or occasional DH versus righties. With Matt Szczur, Ronald Torreyes, Phil Gosselin, Mikie Mahtook and T.J. Rivera all in camp on minor league deals as well, the Phillies aren’t short on recognizable names. It’s doubtful any of that bunch would factor prominently into DH duties, but they give the Phillies plenty of options for a deepened bench.

Realmuto On Spring Extension Talks With Phillies

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Neither the Phillies nor J.T. Realmuto had been quiet about the fact that the two sides were exploring an extension prior to the league’s shutdown in mid-March. However, the roster freeze that was implemented back in March also prohibits teams from negotiating long-term contracts with their players, so talks between the two sides were halted. In a new interview with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (subscription required), Realmuto indicates that the Phils had yet to present a formal offer, but he also speaks optimistically that a deal indeed could have come together.

“There was definitely a feeling that things were about to start moving pretty quickly,” Realmuto tells Gelb in a wide-ranging interview that discusses his mindset during the pandemic shutdown, the upcoming free-agent landscape and the league’s attempt to reboot the 2020 season. (Phillies fans, in particular, will want to read it in its entirety.)

The Phillies sent three players — catcher Jorge Alfaro, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, young lefty Will Stewart — and international bonus allotments to the Marlins last winter in order to acquire Reamluto’s final two pre-arbitration seasons. However, it has long seemed that the goal all along was to entice Realmuto to sign a long-term deal in Philly, adding him to a core group including Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery. General manager Matt Klentak has gushed about Realmuto’s importance to the club and had no qualms about labeling him the game’s best backstop — an opinion with which many onlookers would agree. It’s understandable that there’d be strong interest in locking the 29-year-old up for the long term.

Whenever the transaction freeze is lifted, the two sides will be able to resume negotiations. The Phils surely still have interest in retaining Realmuto long-term, but mutual interest between the two parties may be the only constant that carries over from previous talks. With a surefire loss of revenue on the horizon, there’s no guarantee that owner John Middleton will be willing to put forth the same number he might have under normal circumstances — or whether he’ll be willing to put forth an offer at all.

There’s also no telling how the looming uncertainty will impact Realmuto’s asking price and desire for stability. The catcher says to Gelb that the “top tier” of free agents “always seem to find a way” to get paid. However, the forthcoming offseason has the potential to be even chillier for free agents than the tepid 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons that led to allegations of collusion and set the stage for what should be an extraordinarily contentious wave of collective bargaining. (The current clash over player compensation in a shortened season only figures to exacerbate that tension.)

Given that owners are already seeking additional concessions from players who’d previously agreed to prorated salaries, it’s hard to envision many teams handing out lucrative multi-year extensions when the freeze is lifted — at least extensions that are deemed reasonable on the player side. Deferred money and backloaded structures might curb some concerns from the team perspective, but the wide-ranging economic uncertainty will complicate extension negotiations in an unprecedented manner.

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