Cubs, Phillies Interested In Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s market continues to percolate, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the Cubs and Phillies are the latest teams to be linked to the free agent outfielder.
Bradley is a known quantity to Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski from their time together with the Red Sox, and Bradley would address a big need for the Phils in center field. The tandem of Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley are penciled into the center field job at the moment, but installing an everyday veteran like Bradley would both solidify the position and provide a big defensive upgrade. Bradley’s left-handed bat would also be useful in a Philadelphia lineup that leans to the right.
Ian Happ provided both strong offense and some decently respectable (+1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.6 UZR/150) glovework as the Cubs’ regular center fielder in 2020, but Bradley obviously offers a lot more defensive value up the middle. Now that Kyle Schwarber has been non-tendered, Happ could easily be shifted over to left field to accommodate Bradley in center. Given the number of former Red Sox personnel within the Cubs organization, Bradley would also find a lot of familiar faces in Wrigleyville — to name two, manager David Ross and assistant general manager Craig Breslow were both former teammates in Boston.
Beyond Philadelphia and Chicago, four other clubs (the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, and an unknown AL Central team) have also reportedly shown interest in Bradley’s services at various points in the offseason. Toronto has also been heavily linked to George Springer, while the Astros haven’t yet ruled out a reunion with Springer, and the Red Sox and Phillies could also potentially be in the mix, though it isn’t yet clear how much money either of those teams are willing to spend this offseason. Bradley could be seen as a “plan B” type of center field options for many Springer suitors, and he could be more of a primary target for a team like the Cubs that isn’t thought to have much payroll space available. While not exactly an inexpensive sign, Bradley’s projected price tag could be as much as $100MM less than Springer’s next contract.
Vince Velasquez Drawing Trade Interest
Before tendering right-hander Vince Velasquez a contract for the 2021 season, the Phillies received inquires into his availability, according to the Athletic’s Matt Gelb.
There’s no denying that Velasquez has a great arm. Making that arm work for him on the pitching mound has been an up-and-down endeavor for the 28-year-old, however. The six-year veteran is set to make somewhere between $3.8MM and $4.8MM in his final season before free agency – a palatable amount for a rotation arm should the Phillies ultimately decide to move him, especially without the hindrance of a long-term financial commitment.
Whether or not Velazquez qualifies as a rotation arm is a question that the Phillies themselves have waffled on the past couple of seasons. Out of 42 total appearances the last two years, 30 have been starts – but that’s compared to 69 out of 70 from 2016 to 2018.
Inconsistency has, in fact, been the constant for Velazquez. He mixes wipe-out stuff (10.5 K/9 over the last two seasons) with a too-high walk rate (9.1 BB%) and year-to-year arsenal uncertainty. His 93-94 mph fastball more-or-less sets the tone, but deciding on a second-best offering has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.
His slider, for example, had largely been an effective, if judicious selection for him his first few years in the rotation, but as it gained traction volume-wise, hitters took it to the tune of a .407 wOBA in 2019. His changeup, meanwhile, had fallen almost out of his arsenal entirely in 2018 and 2019 before finding its way back into the mix last season, when he threw it 14.3% of the time and limited hitters to a 26.7 HardHit%. He throws a sinker, sparingly, but it’s been thumped – except in 2016 and 2020 when it registered a .298 wOBA and 243 wOBA, respectively.
All in all, Velasquez has been good for roughly 1.3 bWAR per 150 innings over his Phillies tenure – though 146 2/3 innings in 2018 mark a career high. Still, he owns a 4.33 FIP and 4.21 xFIP, as well as an exactly-league-average 100 FIP- for his career. Even that, however, doesn’t really tell the tale, as he’s alternated above-average seasons and below-average seasons by that mark since joining Philadelphia’s rotation: 94, 125, 90, 115, and 91 from 2016 to 2020.
That there’s interest in Velasquez is hardly surprising. But pinning his value to the wall is difficult. To summarize: on average, he’s an average ML arm that manifests as either 9-10% better or 15-25% worse than average.
As of right now, he figures to start the 2021 season right back in the Philly rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, right alongside rookie Spencer Howard. Rumor is there’s a new decision-maker in town, however, as well as a new pitching coach, so this is their puzzle to solve.
MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia
After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.
The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.
And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.
As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.
It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)
How Will We View The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia Four Years From Now?
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A Pat Burrell era: a lot of fanfare raised expectations, but ultimately this falls into the 'can't complain' category. 27% (2,519)
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A Danny Tartabull era: it might have been better for all parties if he'd retired right BEFORE coming to Philly. 20% (1,832)
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A John Kruk era: solid, quirky, edgy, and a good run, even without a ring. 19% (1,701)
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A Curt Schilling era: it feels great at the time, but in retrospect it will become harder to parse. 13% (1,180)
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A Mitch Williams era: short, tumultuous, successful, but a "Wild Thing" era ultimately ends in heartbreak. 12% (1,094)
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A Mike Schmidt era: a legendary, second-to-none run of success. 7% (607)
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Other 3% (237)
Total votes: 9,170
Takeaways From Dave Dombrowski’s Introductory Press Conference
During a zoom call with reporters this afternoon (which was also streamed live on MLB.com), new Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski spoke on a number of different topics, including the timeline of his hiring and some of the plans for the organization moving forward. Here are some highlights…
- On the timeline of this hiring: Team president and longtime friend Andy MacPhail reached out to Dombrowski on Saturday to try and connect him with Phillies managing partner John Middleton. The Phillies had been one of the clubs to contact Dombrowski early in the offseason, but he wasn’t interested at that time. What changed was that he was given some new information from the commissioner’s office, who recently told Dombrowski and the Nashville group that expansion wasn’t going to happen for a couple of years. With that timeline pushed back, Dombrowski decided to take Middleton’s call. They spoke on Tuesday, and by Wednesday they were coming to an agreement.
- On immediate plans for free agency: Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate making wholesale changes in the organization right now. He repeated that his preference is to get to know the people currently installed within the organization, gauge their roles and responsibilities, strengths and so on before making any significant changes. The organization does plan to cut payroll from last season, which pours water on the idea that Dombrowski would run right over to sign J.T. Realmuto or anyone else to a monster contract.
- On the whole, Dombrowski came across as very measured and patient in his approach. “I don’t think anyone thinks we’re a player away,” Dombrowski said of the Phillies, who are stuck in a nine-year playoff drought. When presented with the question of rebuild or retool, he unequivocally categorized the roster as a retooling situation.
- On his trading record: Asked about a trade from his rearview that he regrets, Dombrowski mentioned dealing former Tigers infield prospect Eugenio Suarez to the Reds for righty Alfredo Simon – a transaction that occurred six years ago today. The thinking was that the Tigers had depth in the infield, and they needed an affordable starter. He also made a point to say that he’s “a big believer in young players.”
- Clearly aware of his reputation as a wheeler and dealer, Dombrowski seemed to want to reset the record, at least to give him time to read reports, watch video, and get to know the organization. Trades made in the past, he noted, were more about matching value and team needs at the time, not as much about an inherent mistrust of young players. If he can trade for a player he likes, while giving up players he and the rest of his front office are less high on, that’s a given. But there are also times – like the Chris Sale trade in Boston – where Dombrowski knew he was giving up talented players. Sale, however, fit the timeline and scale of talent the Red Sox needed.
- On relocating to Philadelphia: Dombrowski said that he’s planning to stay where he is for now, as nobody from the organization is going into the office. He also noted that he contracted COVID-19 about a month ago, and while it was not an easy process, he is fully recovered.
- Lastly, to help build the GM profile, here are some quick-and-dirty strategic preferences Dombrowski noted. He’s on board with exit velocity and launch angles, but he still prefers hitters who use all fields. Dombrowski understands and agrees with the move away from stolen bases, but he’s not on the far end of that spectrum – he can still appreciate a stolen base or two. The closer mentality is not a myth, but nor is it unwise to use an arm in a high-leverage spot if that’s a manager’s preference. Dombrowski used to believe in building a bullpen around a closer and a setup man, but now depth is an important element. He has always believed in pitching and power arms. Don’t expect the Phillies to move to openers anytime soon, as he still aims for his starters to go seven innings, pitch count allowing.
Phillies Announce Dave Dombrowski As President Of Baseball Operations
The Phillies got their guy. Loudly on the hunt for a veteran executive – for a personality big enough to match their sense of urgency – the Philadelphia Phillies coaxed two-time World Series winner Dave Dombrowski to leave his position in Nashville and answer the call.
The news broke yesterday, but today, the organization formally announced Dombrowski as their first-ever President of Baseball Operations. He signed for four years and $20MM, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca points out, that’s the most money handed out to a free agent so far this winter.
Dombrowski comes heavily decorated. He won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and in 2018 with the Red Sox. He built two pennant winners with the Detroit Tigers (2006, 2012). He has 31 total years of experience running an MLB franchise, and he’s the only general manager in MLB history to lead three different franchises to the World Series. That’s quite the feather in his cap. He’s also the only two-time winner of Baseball America’s Executive of the Year award.
In the press release, managing partner John Middleton said this of Dombrowski:
This is a great day for the Philadelphia Phillies. David Dombrowski is one of the most accomplished executives this great game has ever seen, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Philadelphia. Between David and Joe Girardi, we now have two of the best people in place to set us on the path back to where we want to be, and that is the postseason and contending for world championships.
Interestingly, the press release also made special mention of Dombrowski’s track record of success in the draft, listing Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Charles Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Mark Kotsay, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Nicholas Castellanos, Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello among the standouts. That’s noteworthy particularly in the context of previous comments made by team president Andy MacPhail back in October when they began their search, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. :
Our R&D department has been good with one exception. I’m just being blunt. I look at Tampa. They’re able to unlock the hidden value or potential in minor-league players that have been around a while that they recognize something that we’re not picking up on yet. I think that’s one thing that this franchise needs to improve on. Our R&D needs to obviously help with that.
Specifically, the Phillies were seeking someone with a track record of success in player evaluation. For more insight into Philadelphia’s thinking, let’s take a cue from Brad Pitt in Moneyball: What’s the problem? As Gelb helpfully reminds us, at the time of former GM Matt Klentak’s reassignment, Middleton said this:
I think the problem the Phillies have had for a hundred years is they don’t evaluate talent well.
Dombrowski’s win-now mentality is getting headline treatment, with assumptions being made about the free agent dollars Dombrowki will spend and the prospects he will trade away. The Phillies themselves, however, are underlining some other aspects of Dombrowski’s resume. Player evaluation plays a role in every aspect of roster building, of course. Still, it’s intriguing that system building has been at the forefront of Philly’s messaging in the early going.
Dombrowski will answer questions from the media this afternoon.
Phillies To Hire Dave Dombrowski As President Of Baseball Operations
Dec. 11: The Phillies have announced the deal.
Dec. 10: The Phillies are in “advanced stages” of talks to hire Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball ops, reports the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Dombrowski has the job, Jon Heyman of MLB Network confirms.
This news come as a surprise. Dombrowski had been linked to the Angels’ front office position, but he was said to be content in his role with the Nashville group. Apparently, the role in Philadelphia was appealing enough to lure him from his responsibilities working to bring baseball back to Nashville.
Dombrowski boasts four successful runs with four different franchises throughout his illustrious career, which began in 1988 when he was elevated to the position of general manager for the Montreal Expos. Dombrowski went from farm director to assistant GM to general manager in the span of three years, matching the term length he’d end up with as the frontman in Montreal (1988-1991). From there, he went south to architect the Marlins run from expansion team to World Champion in 1997. He stayed in Florida from 1992 until 2001. From there, he rejuvenated a long-troubled Tigers franchise. He took Detroit to the World Series twice from 2002 to 2015 before leaving to join the Boston Red Sox.
With Boston, Dombrowski left a legacy of handing out large contracts to veteran players and running up a luxury tax bill – but his contribution was much more nuanced. His single-minded purpose to win and willingness to spend go against the fashionable trends of the day, and ownership didn’t appreciate the direction he was moving the team in 2019. That said, he has a history of successful trades, including in Boston where he sent out prospects to add Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, and Craig Kimbrel en route to winning the 2018 World Series. Despite the ring, Dombrowski was removed from his role in September 2019.
The Phillies have been looking for a new decision-maker since re-assigning Matt Klentak from his role as general manager. If there was any uncertainty about who was running things in Philadelphia, the hierarchy is now clear. Dombrowski is a hand-on executive who has enough experience in the game to set a clear direction.
Dombrowski’s history in the win-now tradition blends well with Philly’s stated direction. He not only matches the Phillies’ competitive ethos, but he’s about as accomplished an executive as exists in the game, having taken three different franchises to the World Series.
Assuming this hire goes through, it’s certainly a statement hire and a big win for what the Phillies were hoping to accomplish. But Dombrowski enters a fraught situation. He’s faced immediately with the J.T. Realmuto question – a pricey free agent that it hurts to lose. Dombrowski will have his work cut out for him in Philadelphia.
Still, alignment between ownership and the front office goes a long way to establishing the type of culture that wins World Series. Managing partner John Middleton clearly thirsts to bring a winner back to Philly, and he’s been walking the walk, beginning with the signing of Bryce Harper to a monster 13-year, $330MM contact. Middleton has put his money on the line, but the spending hasn’t spawned enough victories. The Phillies have been unable to get back to the postseason since their run of five consecutive postseason appearances ended in 2012.
Latest On Phillies’ Front Office Search
DEC. 8: Byrnes has decided to stay with the Dodgers, Jayson Stark of The Athletic tweets. Hill is among those still in the running.
DEC. 4, 10:02pm: Levine is no longer a candidate for the Philadelphia job, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He’s content to stay in Minnesota.
3:56pm: The Twins have given the Phillies permission to interview Levine, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets.
10:12am: It’s been two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as the Phillies’ general manager, but there’s still no resolution to the team’s front-office search. A group of potential candidates is coming more clearly into focus, however, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes and former Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill are in line for second interviews. Additionally, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports (via Twitter) that Twins general manager Thad Levine is a “significant” candidate for the Phillies.
Per Salisbury, the Phils aren’t seeking a general manager but are instead focused on hiring an executive who could assume the president of baseball operations role in their organization, then hire a GM of his own. By that criteria, each of Byrnes, Hill and Levine fit the bill. Byrnes, in addition to his current role with the Dodgers, is a former general manager of both the Padres and Diamondbacks. Hill, of course, held the president of baseball ops title in Miami.
Levine was an assistant GM with the Rangers before being hired by the Twins as general manager back in 2016. He’s currently No. 2 on Minnesota’s hierarchy behind president of baseball ops Derek Falvey, so if the Twins indeed allow Levine to interview (or have already allowed him to do so), he could be hired away given that the president role in Philadelphia would be a promotion. Of at least minor note, Levine is a Virginia native who played college ball at Haverford College — about 25 miles from Citizens Bank Park. Of course, that was more than 25 years ago, so those local ties may be little more than anecdotal at this point.
There’s still no clear timeline as to when the Phillies might finalize a decision — nor is it even certain that they’ll make a hire this winter at all. Assistant general manager Ned Rice was elevated to GM status on an interim basis while the team conducted its search, and Phillies president Andy MacPhail suggested more than a month ago that Rice could very well hold that title into 2021 if the team doesn’t find a candidate to its liking.
Pitching Notes: S. Gray, T. Williams, Urena, Phils, Jays, Matz
“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.
More on a handful of other pitchers…
- There are “more than” six teams interested in free-agent righties Trevor Williams and Jose Urena, per Heyman. Both players were cut loose by their former teams last week, but they’ve had success in the past and could be interesting buy-low hurlers in free agency. Williams, 28, struggled mightily in the previous two years but gave the Pirates 321 innings of 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching from 2017-18. It has been a similar story for the 29-year-old Urena, whom offenses victimized from 2019-20. In the prior two years, though, the ex-Marlin registered a 3.90 ERA/4.68 FIP over 343 2/3 frames.
- The pitching-needy Phillies “never engaged” righty Charlie Morton, lefty Drew Smyly or reliever Trevor May before they signed free-agent contracts with other teams, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Two of those players – Morton and Smyly – previously played for the Phillies. They could have improved the Phillies’ rotation, while May might have been an asset to a bullpen that is in desperate need of help. Each player landed an eight-figure deal, though, and the Phillies don’t seem eager to hand out large paydays to anyone this offseason.
- Before the Mets avoided arbitration with Steven Matz on a $5.2MM agreement, they reached out to the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the southpaw, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. No trade came together, of course. Toronto would have been hard pressed to consider Matz an upgrade for its rotation after he recorded a horrific 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30 2/3 innings last season.
Dick Allen Passes Away
In saddening news, the family of iconic slugger Dick Allen announced on Twitter that the seven-time Major League All-Star passed away at his home in Wampum, Pennsylvania this morning. He was 78.
Allen, the 1964 National League Rookie of the Year with the Phillies and the 1972 American League MVP with the White Sox, was one of baseball’s most feared hitters at his peak. During an 11-year run from 1964-74, he clubbed 319 home runs in 6270 plate appearances while posting an overall batting line of .299/.386/.554 — good for a whopping 165 OPS+ and 163 wRC+.
In what many consider to be a glaring snub, Allen was not voted into Cooperstown despite a remarkable career as one of the game’s most prominent sluggers. As Jay Jaffe detailed for Baseball Prospectus in 2017 and Matt Gelb of The Athletic explained in September, racism negatively affected Allen throughout his career.
Allen may very well have been inducted by the Veteran’s Committee this year had the vote not been delayed, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out, though Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia notes that he will be on the ballot again next year. He was honored by the Phillies earlier this summer when they retired his No. 15 in a well-deserved tribute. Owner John Middleton was one of the driving forces behind the decision.
“The Phillies are heartbroken over the passing today of our dear friend and co-worker, Dick Allen,” the team said in a press release. “Dick will be remembered as not just one of the greatest and most popular players in our franchise’s history, but also as a courageous warrior who had to overcome far too many obstacles to reach the level he did. Dick’s iconic status will resonate for generations of baseball fans to come as one of the all-time greats to play America’s Pastime. He is now reunited with his beloved daughter, Terri. The Phillies extend their condolences to Dick’s widow, Willa, his family, friends and all his fans from coast to coast.”
MLBTR joins the Phillies and those around the game in offering our condolences to Allen’s family, friends and fans.
Phillies Claim Ian Hamilton From Mariners
The Phillies have claimed right-hander Ian Hamilton off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from Seattle.
This is the second time since September that a team has claimed Hamilton, as the Mariners did so when they got him from the White Sox. Chicago used an 11th-round pick on Hamilton in 2016 and then saw him turn into a decent prospect in its farm system, but the hard thrower hasn’t seen much action in the majors to this point.
Set to turn 26 years old next June, Hamilton has thrown 12 innings of seven-run (six earned) ball with 10 hits allowed and a 9:7 K:BB ratio. He owns a 4.85 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (10.1 K/9, 1.85 BB/9) across 42 2/3 innings in Triple-A ball.