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Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Phillies To Sign Neil Walker

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The Phillies have reached a minor-league deal with veteran infielder Neil Walker, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s a big-league camp invite; other details remain unknown.

Walker, 34, was once a sturdy MLB regular at second base. But he has functioned as more of a part-time corner player — first, third, and the outfield as well — over the past two seasons. He could battle with former Pirates teammate Josh Harrison and others for a utility role in Philly.

It’s a reasonable opportunity, but this still represents yet another suboptimal trip onto the open market for Walker. He took a qualifying offer from the Mets in 2017 and seemingly made good on the bet with another season of solidly above-average hitting. To that point of his career, Walker was a .272/.341/.437 hitter through more than four thousand MLB plate appearances. But he ran into the same headwinds that impacted so many others and ultimate landed with the Yankees on a surprisingly light, late-breaking contract. Hamstring and back issues no doubt hurt his market standing as well.

As it turned out, Walker hit a wall at the plate in the 2018 campaign. He was left with a $2MM deal with the Marlins. The results were improved in 2019, as Walker turned in an approximately league-average .261/.344/.395 output in 381 plate appearances. But that came despite judicious platoon deployment by the Fish. Walker has long carried yawning platoon splits and is best held to facing right-handed pitching.

Phillies To Sign Francisco Liriano

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The Phillies have reached agreement on a deal with veteran lefty Francisco Liriano, per Robert Murray (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of MLB Network had tweeted that a deal was close.

It’s said to be a minor-league pact and will obviously include an invitation to MLB camp. Liriano can earn $1.5MM in the majors and double that through incentives.

The 36-year-old Liriano spent last year working exclusively as a reliever, but had previously functioned primarily as a starter. Odds are he’ll be looked at primarily as a pen candidate by the Philadelphia organization, but his wealth of experience in multi-inning situations surely doesn’t hurt.

While he pitched to a 3.47 ERA over seventy frames in 2019, it’s not hard to see why Liriano was forced to settle for a minor-league arrangement. He posted 8.1 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 along with a 50.3% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics weren’t overly enthused (4.52 FIP; 4.92 xFIP; 4.76 SIERA) and Statcast indicates that Liriano gave up loads of hard contact.

Then again, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Liriano in the picture with the Phils. He was able to generate a 13.5% swinging-strike rate last year, his loftiest mark since 2015. And lefties that can handle right-handed batters are perhaps more in demand than ever before, given the onset of the 3-batter minimum rule.

Phillies, Bud Norris Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Bud Norris, tweets Robert Murray. He’s the second well-known veteran to join the organization on such a pact today, as the club reportedly agreed to a minor league deal with Drew Storen this morning. Norris is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Norris, 34, didn’t pitch in the Majors or minors in 2019. He went to Spring Training with the Blue Jays on a minor league pact and received a $100K retention bonus, but the two sides agreed to a release when Norris felt he was ready to join the big league roster but the Blue Jays wanted him to spend more time in the minors building up arm strength. He was in talks with the Nationals not long after, but the two sides never finalized their agreement due to similar reasons; the Nats felt Norris was as much as a month away from being ready.

Ultimately, Norris didn’t sign anywhere else, so he’ll now be aiming for an MLB return after a yearlong absence from the Majors. The right-hander posted solid numbers from 2017-18 with the Angels and Cardinals, working to a combined 3.91 ERA and nearly identical 3.94 FIP with 141 strikeouts against 48 walks in 119 2/3 innings.

J.T. Realmuto On Arbitration, Contract Talks With Phillies

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Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto is pursuing a significant raise in his final season of arbitration eligibility. But the wage dispute is a pragmatic one, the star explained to reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

There’s a sizable spread between what Realmuto is seeking and what the Philadelphia organization is defending, raising the possibility of a relatively high-stakes hearing of the sort that can lead to some emotional moments. Whether or not there’s any mud-slinging before the arbitration panel, the backstop suggests that hurt feelings won’t be the cause or the result.

“I have a pretty good understanding of the process,” he says, “and I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all. It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”

Realmuto explains that he feels the Phils were generally fair in negotiations to this point. The Phillies filed at $10MM, coming in just shy of the $10.3MM projected by the computer model of MLBTR & arbitration guru Matt Swartz, so the club obviously was at least within reasonable bounds with its numbers. But Realmuto sees an argument for greater earnings — not only for himself, but also future backstops.

“Historically, catchers haven’t been treated very well in the arbitration process,” Realmuto opines. “So we feel like this is an opportunity for us to advance that for future catchers.”

It’ll be interesting to see how Realmuto and his reps go about trying to nudge the system in the player’s favor. Certainly, the rise in measurable catching statistics — Realmuto grades as one of the game’s top defensive backstops — creates some new potential evidence to work with. That the Phillies organization has heaped public praise upon Realmuto surely doesn’t hurt.

So, what does this all mean for a possible extension? Bad blood evidently won’t scuttle a deal. But a Realpolitik Realmuto will presumably also be a hard bargainer when it comes time to value his future.

“Anybody who knows much about the arbitration process knows that it’s business,” says Realmuto. “It’s not necessarily me against the Phillies right now. There’s definitely not any hard feelings there. So, I feel like we’re in the same place we were two or three months ago with the contract extension.”

Phillies To Sign Drew Storen

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The Phillies have inked reliever Drew Storen to a minors deal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. He’ll earn at the $750K level if he’s able to crack the MLB roster.

This is another comeback bid for the 32-year-old Storen, who wasn’t able to progress last year in a similar effort with the Royals. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2017, when he threw 54 2/3 innings of 4.45 ERA ball with the Reds.

You have to go back quite a bit farther to find a time when Storen was a high-quality reliever: 2015, his final year with the Nationals. When that season drew to a close, he had compiled 334 frames of 3.02 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

While Storen’s tenure in D.C. was generally successful, it included quite a few ups and downs. And it came to an end on the heels of a disastrous late-2015 run for both him and the Nats. After a strong first half, Storen stumbled down the stretch after being replaced in the closer’s role by mid-season acquisition Jonathan Papelbon. (The ensuing spectacle of Papelbon assaulting young star Bryce Harper was as memorable as it was unwelcome.)

Storen ended up being shipped to the Blue Jays in the ensuing offseason. He struggled in Toronto but picked things up after a mid-season swap to the Mariners. The Reds gave him a $3MM contract but weren’t really rewarded for the investment, as Storen’s velocity decline increased. His 2017 campaign ended with Tommy John surgery and he hasn’t been back to full strength since.

Phillies Outright Odubel Herrera To Triple-A, Claim Nick Martini

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TODAY: Herrera has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the Phillies announced.

JANUARY 14: The Phillies announced Tuesday that center fielder Odubel Herrera has been designated for assignment. His 40-man roster spot will go to Nick Martini, whom the Phillies have claimed off waivers from the Reds.

Not long ago, such a move would’ve been unthinkable for the Phils, who extended Herrera on a five-year, $30.5MM deal spanning the 2017-21 seasons. However, Herrera sat out the the final 85 games of the 2019 season under a domestic violence suspension, and even when he was on the field in 2019, he failed to produce at the plate or with the glove. After batting .281/.325/.452 and drawing strong defensive marks across the board as recently as 2017, Herrera turned in an awful .222/.288/.341 line in 2019 with below-average marks from Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

While Herrera has played poorly in each of the past two seasons, he might well have been given another chance in 2020 were it not for the charges levied against him and the subsequent suspension. He’s still owed a hefty $19.5MM under that aforementioned extension, but the Phils are apparently willing to eat the remainder of that contract to cut ties with Herrera.

During Herrera’s absence, he was surpassed on the depth chart by former No. 8 overall pick Adam Haseley, who debuted with a .266/.324/.396 slash line and plus defensive ratings (per DRS, UZR and OAA) — all of which look to be improvements over Herrera’s 2018-19 play. The Phils could yet look to add a platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting Haseley, or they could play the versatile Scott Kingery in center field against tough lefties. Speedy Roman Quinn remains on hand as an option as well, and he’ll surely make the club given that he’s out of minor league options.

Martini himself will give the Phils another option at any of the three outfield spots, as he has at least 1900 minor league innings in left, center and right field. The left-handed-hitting Martini has been a veritable on-base machine in the upper minors, hitting at a robust .305/.401/.435 clip in parts of five Triple-A seasons.

While he doesn’t hit for much power, Martini has walked in 13.5 percent of his career plate appearances in Triple-A. That general profile has carried over to the big leagues, where in 288 plate appearances between the Padres and A’s, Martini has slashed .269/.372/.380. He still has a minor league option remaining, so Martini will give the Phillies some roster flexibility in addition to his intriguing on-base prowess.

The Phillies will have a week to trade Herrera, put him on outright waivers or release him. It’s likely that they’ve tried and failed to find a taker for his services prior to designating him for assignment, though, and he’ll surely go unclaimed on waivers. He doesn’t yet have five years of MLB service, so while he could reject an outright assignment, doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of his contract, which obviously won’t happen. If the Phils wish to retain him, they could outright him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. If not, the likeliest outcome is that they’ll simply release Herrera, at which point any club would be able to sign him for the league minimum (which would be subtracted from the sum owed to him by the Phillies). Whether he’d even draw interest at that minimal level of commitment remains to be seen, however.

David Buchanan Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions

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Former MLB hurler David Buchanan has inked a deal with Korea’s Samsung Lions, per Yonhap News (h/t MyKBO’s Dan Kurtz). He’s slated to receive a $100K signing bonus, $600K salary, and $150K incentive package.

The 30-year-old Buchanan is now well removed from his time as a big league hurler. He made 34 starts for the Phillies in 2014 and 2015, producing good results in his debut campaign but faltering in his sophomore follow-up effort. Buchanan spent 2016 with the Phils’ top affiliate but didn’t get a call-up.

Since that time, Buchanan has plied his trade in Japan. The groundball-oriented hurler delivered solid numbers in his first two seasons with the Yakult Swallows, checking in with earned run averages of 3.66 and 4.03. But he stepped back to a 4.82 ERA in 130 2/3 frames last year.

Quick Hits: Astros, Baker, Bochy, Phils, Herrera, Ventura, Hudson

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The Astros, suddenly in need of a new manager after the suspension and firing of A.J. Hinch on Monday, “plan to open an outside search to find his replacement,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Nightengale names longtime manager Dusty Baker as someone with interest in the job, but it’s unclear whether the team will want to talk to him about the position. Although fellow veteran skipper Bruce Bochy has been mentioned in speculation, it appears he’s serious about taking time away from the game in the wake of his long run with the Giants. Bochy told Nightengale he’s hitting the “pause button.”

  • The Phillies designated center fielder Odubel Herrera for assignment Tuesday, which could pave the way for his release. However, the likelihood is that Herrera will still be a member of the organization when spring training rolls around, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It’s unlikely anyone will take Herrera in a trade, the Phils don’t seem keen on releasing him and eating the $19.5MM left on his contract, and it’s improbable he’d reject an outright assignment and leave that money on the table. So, while Herrera’s no longer on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, it doesn’t appear his time with the organization is up just yet.
  • Former major league third baseman and ex-White Sox manager Robin Ventura has resurfaced at Oklahoma State as a student assistant, per Kendall Rogers of D1baseball.com. The Cowboys’ staff now boasts him and fellow former big leaguer Matt Holliday, whose brother, Josh Holliday, manages the team. The 52-year-old Ventura hasn’t coached in the majors since the White Sox let him go after the 2016 season. Ventura’s name came up when the Mets were seeking a manager in 2017, but he reportedly didn’t have interest in the position.
  • In more ex-MLBer/college baseball news, longtime right-hander Tim Hudson is joining Auburn as a pitching/volunteer assistant coach, Teddy Cahill of Baseball America reports. Prior to enjoying an excellent MLB career, Hudson starred at Auburn. In Hudson’s return to his old stomping grounds, Cahill notes that the 44-year-old will work with potential first-round righty Tanner Burns – who has drawn comparisons to Hudson.

Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.
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