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Relief Market Rumors: Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Smith, Watson, Giants

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Though Craig Kimbrel was at one point said to be seeking a six-year contract worth as much as $100MM, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the asking price on Kimbrel has come down a bit. Kimbrel’s camp, however, is still eyeing a contract along the lines of the $86MM and $80MM contracts signed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen two offseasons ago. Given Kimbrel’s track record of elite performance, it’s not exactly surprising to see him aiming for a potentially record-setting deal, though it’s important to note that both Chapman and Jansen were younger than Kimbrel when signing those deals more than two years ago. Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen, which will likely make it difficult for him to secure a contract of that length and total guarantee. The market for Kimbrel remains somewhat undefined, though the Red Sox have some degree of interest in retaining him; Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston is waiting to see what happens with Kimbrel before taking action on the relief market. Heyman, however, notes that the current asking price is still deemed too high by the Red Sox front office.

Some other notes on the market for relievers…

  • Heyman notes that the Red Sox also have interest in David Robertson, though their preference would be to limit a Robertson signing to two years, while the veteran righty is believed to be aiming for a three-year pact. Robertson, 34 in April, is representing himself in free agency this winter and has been connected to both the Dodgers and Mets in recent weeks. Robertson, who has split his career between the Yankees and White Sox, has pitched at least 60 innings and made at least 60 appearances in each of the past nine seasons and is fresh off a 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings in 2018.
  • With Andrew Miller reportedly on the verge of a contract with the Cardinals, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies’ search for a left-handed reliever in free agency could be down to “Zach Britton or bust,” noting that Britton has numerous teams with serious interest in his services. The Phils were in on both Miller and Britton, with NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reporting last week that the team was “strongly” in the mix for Miller. Britton is, of course, quite familiar to Phillies brass, as president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice were all in the Orioles’ front office when Britton was drafted and developed. The trade market could certainly present alternatives, though there’s no one with the track record of either Miller or Britton known to be available.
  • Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Miller’s impending deal with the Cardinals will have ramifications for the Giants as well. San Francisco has been waiting for Miller, Britton and others to sign before marketing their own left-handed relievers (i.e. Will Smith, Tony Watson). There are numerous hopeful contenders in need of left-handed relief help, and both Smith and Watson are coming off strong 2018 showings. Smith, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.1MM in 2019, will be a free agent again next offseason. Watson, meanwhile, is signed to a guaranteed $3.5MM salary for the 2019 season and is owed at least a $500K buyout on a player option for the 2020 season. Of course, if Watson replicates his excellent 2018 production, he’ll surely turn down that option in favor of a return to free agency. And, if he struggles through a poor season or is injured, he’ll quite likely take that option for the 2020 campaign.

Phillies To Sign Shane Robinson

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran outfielder Shane Robinson, according to the latest minor transactions from Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Terms of the arrangement are not known.

Robinson, 34, has appeared in nine MLB campaigns, though he has never yet reached 200 plate appearances in a single season. In total, he carries a modest .221/.288/.292 slash over 849 plate appearances.

Clearly, that’s not going to get the job done, but Robinson has nevertheless found opportunity owing to his well-regarded work in the field and on the bases. It’s fair to note, too, that he has at least shown himself to a be a competent batsman at the Triple-A level, where he owns a .279/.336/.382 line in parts of nine seasons of work.

Manny Machado Meets With Yankees

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The Yankees met with Manny Machado earlier today at Yankee Stadium, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Machado and agent Dan Lozano arrived at Yankee Stadium and were greeted by a contingent consisting at least of GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone and veteran starter CC Sabathia, writes Martin, though other members of the organization were likely present. The meeting has been anticipated since weekend reports indicated that Machado would sit down for in-person visits with the White Sox, Yankees and Phillies this week. The face-to-face with the ChiSox came yesterday, and Machado is reportedly slated to meet with the Phillies tomorrow.

The meeting at Yankee Stadium lasted for roughly 90 minutes, though the Yankees’ courtship of Machado extended beyond that point. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees took Machado, his wife and Lozano out to dinner in Manhattan tonight as they continued to discuss the possibility of Machado signing in the Bronx. Some reports in recent days have indicated that Machado will sit down with a fourth club in the near future, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested as much was possible once again earlier today. However, Heyman definitively states that the market for Machado, at present, consists of the White Sox, Yankees and Phillies with “no mysteries” in play.

Regardless, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Yankees are a significant factor in the Machado auction. While Martin wrote in his column that “indications are they won’t invest $300 million over 10 years,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Yankees are “enamored” and believe him to be the “perfect fit” for their franchise. Whether that means topping the White Sox, the Phillies and any “mystery” suitors that may or may not truly be in the mix is another question entirely, though.

Ultimately, managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner will have to give the go-ahead to offer what could end up a record-setting deal to bring Machado to the Yankees. Steinbrenner previously called Machado’s infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments “troubling” and flatly stated that such an attitude “ain’t going to sell where we play baseball.” Those comments, as well as Machado’s intentional kick of Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar, undoubtedly came up in today’s face-to-face meeting.

As Feinsand writes, it’s not fully clear whether Steinbrenner himself was present in today’s meetings, as his family is mourning the recent passing of his mother, Joan. However, Steinbrenner implied to Nightengale last month that Machado would be explaining those comments and actions to Cashman, whom ownership trusts to make that type of call. “But that’s really [GM Brian Cashman’s] job,” said Steinbrenner at the time. “If we’re interested in any player, to sit down with them face to face and ask him, ’Where did this come from? What was the context around the entire interview? Was there a point? How do you justify it?’ … That conversation will happen.”

Troy Tulowitzki Hosts Workout For MLB Clubs

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At least 11 teams were on hand to watch Troy Tulowitzki work out earlier today, reports Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. The Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Padres, White Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Pirates were all represented at the showcase, Brown reports (as were other, unnamed teams), with some clubs even sending their top executives to get a first-hand look at the former Rockies star. Angels GM Billy Eppler was in attendance, per Brown, as were new Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi and manager Bruce Bochy.

Since being released by the Blue Jays last week — with two years and $38MM remaining on his contract — Tulowitzki has been separately connected to a handful of teams including the Pirates, the Yankees, the Cubs and the Giants. His agent, Paul Cohen, recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that Tulowitzki is open to playing second base or third base with a new team. Brown, notably, writes that the biggest appeal for Tulowitzki will be the promise of regular at-bats at one positions (as opposed to moving between those three spots in a utility role).

It doesn’t seem as though there’s any early favorite to add Tulowitzki, who’ll cost his new team only the Major League minimum of $555K next season. (Toronto is on the hook for the remainder of his salary.) At that price, it’s justifiable for virtually any team to take a look at Tulowitzki and see if he can rediscover some of the form that once made him one of the game’s premier players. While few would expect him to return to his 2013-14 levels of output, that type of performance is hardly necessary from someone whose new team will pay him the league minimum. Tulowitzki’s bat was at least league-average in both 2015 and 2016, so if he’s healthy there’s plenty of reason to believe he can at least be fairly productive at the dish. How he adjusts defensively after undergoing surgery on both heels last year could be a more pressing question — particularly if he’s also adjusting to a new position after spending his entire pro career at shortstop.

Phillies Agree To Minor League Deal With Phil Gosselin

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder Phil Gosselin, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Presumably, he’ll head to Spring Training on a non-roster invitation and compete for a bench spot with his new organization.

Gosselin, 30, made 28 plate appearances with the Reds in 2018 and another 50 between the Pirates and Rangers the year prior. His most significant big league action came with the Braves and D-backs from 2014-16, taking a combined 494 plate appearances in that time. In all, he’s a career .263/.314/.361 hitter with seven home runs 27 doubles and and a pair of triples in 579 Major League plate appearances.

The bulk of Gosselin’s time in the Majors has come as a second baseman (550 innings), though he also has experience at third base (189 innings), shortstop (55 innings), first base 46 innings and in the corner outfield (41 innings). The Phillies already have a crowded infield with Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery all currently penciled onto the 25-man roster. Of course, there’s been no shortage of trade rumblings surrounding Franco, and Hernandez, too, has been mentioned as a possible candidate to move at times. At the very least, it seems safe to expect that the infield mix will change between now and March, when Gosselin will be vying for a job.

Market Notes: Ross, Harper, Phillies, Realmuto, Minor

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Long-time backstop David Ross has agreed to a new, multi-year deal to continue working as an analyst with ESPN. That news would seem to eliminate him from contention as a possible Cubs bench coach target, which is no surprise given recent indications. It would also appear to suggest that Ross won’t be looking to move into a dugout in the near future, though he’ll no doubt remain a popular candidate for significant gigs every time there’s an opening.

Let’s check in on the latest market notes …

  • The Dodgers’ interest in star free agent Bryce Harper remains a storyline to watch. The Los Angeles club doesn’t seem inclined to tantalize Harper with a record-setting overall guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests (subscription link). Rather, the club would be more interested in a shorter-term pact with a “high” average annual value and multiple opt-out clauses along the way. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez heard largely the same late last week, while adding a few intriguing additional details. Harper “badly wants to be a Dodger,” says Gonzalez, but would have to sacrifice years and dollars in order to make that dream a reality. That also meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Buster Olney, wherein Olney suggested that a front-loaded deal with a huge annual value could be the most appealing scenario to Los Angeles. Details are understandably sparse at this point, but generally, it stands to reason that if Harper and agent Scott Boras were to consider anything shy of a record-setting contract in terms of overall value and/or length, they’d likely need to establish a new high-water mark in terms of AAV by a considerable margin. That doesn’t seem like something that Harper’s camp would consider until a ways down the line, however, as Boras & Co. are quite likely still locked in on a longer-term mega-deal. The timeline for Harper’s signing remains unclear at the moment.
  • Harper and Manny Machado will continue to fascinate until they sign, but with both still holding in-person meetings it could take a while for that to come together. What that may mean for the Phillies is worth pondering, as the organization has its sights set on significant improvements in multiple areas. Club president Andy MacPhail says there’s still ongoing interest in both stars, but also notes “there are a lot of different ways to improve,” as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Citing a need to “give yourself enough latitude to deal with each offseason as it comes,” MacPhail certainly struck a somewhat different tone than owner John Middleton did recently. In part, he sought to emphasize the more restrained elements of Middleton’s comments — particularly, those indicating that the club does not feel it must land Harper and/or Machado to have had a productive offseason.
  • The Astros are “back in the mix” for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). It’s fair to wonder whether the Houston club was ever really fully out of the hunt. The club did add Robinson Chirinos and still has Max Stassi on hand, but that combination surely isn’t sufficient to sap the ’Stros’ interest in the top catcher in the game. Perhaps it’s not out of the question that the club would consider carrying three catchers if they swing a blockbuster, with Realmuto perhaps representing an option in the DH/first base mix and Chirinos also providing a potent bench bat against left-handed pitching (.258/.353/.485 career slash). Whatever the plan would be, the Astros first need to land Realmuto. As Frisaro hints, the club’s reported deal with Michael Brantley could be seen as an indication that top prospect Kyle Tucker — who’d surely be of keen interest to the Fish — might just be available. Of course, as Frisaro also notes, a variety of other teams remain in pursuit of Realmuto at this stage.
  • The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.

MLBTR Poll: Andrew McCutchen / Michael Brantley Contracts

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As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.

It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”

In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.

It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.

Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.

It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”

Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.

All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)

Reaction & Analysis: The Wilson Ramos Signing

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The Mets’ busy offseason continued today with the news that the team has agreed with free agent catcher Wilson Ramos on a two-year, $19MM contract that contains a club option for the 2021 season.  Here is some of the early reaction to the deal, and its ripple effect on the rest of the catching market…

  • After speaking with Ramos and his camp during the Winter Meetings, the Mets came away “extremely impressed” by the catcher, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter links).  It also didn’t hurt that Ramos was seeking a lesser contract than Yasmani Grandal, who is looking for a four-year deal.  Kevin Plawecki may now be the odd man out of New York’s catching mix, as Martino hears that the Mets are currently planning to use Travis d’Arnaud for the backup job behind Ramos, and Plawecki could now be a trade chip.
  • The Mets were heavily involved in trade talks for J.T. Realmuto, though ultimately didn’t want to surrender “significant talent off the Major League roster” in a deal, Martino tweets.  Names like Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto had all been mentioned as possible targets for the Marlins, though Miami’s desire to land more than one of these players seems to have ultimately been the Mets’ breaking point in talks.  Martino also mentions that the Mets, Marlins, and Padres had some talks about a three-team deal that would’ve involved both Realmuto and Noah Syndergaard, with those negotiations lasting “up until the end of winter meetings and perhaps beyond.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post likes the Ramos signing, calling it “the right move” for the Mets rather than trade young players for someone like Realmuto.  The Mets can now keep Nimmo and company as potential trade chips for midseason additions, if such move are necessary.  If the Mets don’t end up contending, Sherman points out that Ramos himself could potentially be dealt at the deadline, as his contract doesn’t represent a long-term hit for either the Mets or any possible trade suitor.
  • According to Heyman, the Mets were Ramos’ first choice this winter.  The Dodgers also had interest, though only on a one-year contract, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times tweets.  The Rays and Phillies, Ramos’ most recent teams, didn’t strongly pursue a reunion, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports.  Philadelphia has youngster Jorge Alfaro, of course, while Tampa Bay made another addition behind the plate in acquiring Mike Zunino from the Mariners.
  • Zunino’s presence hasn’t kept the Rays from being involved in the Realmuto market, however, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes (Twitter link) that Tampa and the Dodgers are two of the teams still in the hunt for Miami’s All-Star catcher.  The Marlins continue to feel, however, that “they don’t have to do anything” in regards to a Realmuto trade, and could still end up keeping the catcher.  “This week will be telling if a trade is made or not,” Frisaro writes.

AL Notes: Manny, Yanks, Rangers, Rays, ChiSox, Eloy

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A date has been set for the previously reported Manny Machado-Yankees summit. He’ll head to New York to meet with the team on Wednesday, George A. King III of the New York Post relays. It’s reportedly one of four visits the superstar infielder will make around the league in the coming days. He’ll also sit down with the White Sox, Phillies and a mystery team.  [UPDATE: Machado will meet with the Phils on Thursday, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.  The White Sox meeting is likely to take place “early in the week,” as per Fancred’s Jon Heyman, which would seemingly place it on Monday or Tuesday ahead of Machado’s trip to New York.]  Machado’s meeting with the Yankees may give him an opportunity to clear the air with owner Hal Steinbrenner, who said last month it would be “essential” for the 26-year-old to explain his well-documented “Johnny Hustle” comments to GM Brian Cashman.

Here’s more on a few other American League clubs:

  • In the event the Rangers trade left-hander Mike Minor, who has drawn interest from at least one team, they’d “likely have to add another veteran” starter in response, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. The Rangers don’t want to overexpose their young pitchers at the major league level in 2019, per Grant, and losing their 2018 innings leader in Minor without replacing him would make that task more difficult. Texas did sign Lance Lynn this week, but he’d be the only strong bet to eat innings on a Minor-less staff. While Drew Smyly and Edinson Volquez have done it in the past, the former hasn’t taken a major league mound since 2016, and the latter last pitched in MLB in July 2017 – a month before he underwent Tommy John surgery.
  • Likewise, the Rangers plan to acquire bullpen help prior to spring training, according to general manager Jon Daniels (via Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram). The unit just lost its innings king from last season, Alex Claudio, whom the Rangers traded to the Brewers earlier in the week. Prior to that, the Rangers did reunite with Jesse Chavez via the open market, but they also saw Tony Barnette and the non-tendered Matt Bush become free agents.
  • An experienced closer is on the Rays’ wish list, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The Rays’ saves leaders from last season – Sergio Romo and Alex Colome – are no longer on the roster, with the former currently a free agent. Romo’s one of several established closers on the market, where Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen and Bud Norris are also among those seeking deals.
  • White Sox uber-prospect Eloy Jimenez has been playing in the Dominican Winter League, but Chicago will probably shut the outfielder down until spring training because of a quad injury, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets. Jimenez would have been done with winter ball in another week anyway, Levine notes, so this doesn’t seem like a particularly serious issue. As such, the 22-year-old Jimenez remains on track to make his much-anticipated big league debut sometime in 2019.

Heyman’s Latest: Braves, Ender, Swanson, Angels, Phils, Moose

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The latest from Jon Heyman of Fancred…

  • Along with the previously reported Mike Foltynewicz, the Braves don’t plan to trade center fielder Ender Inciarte or shortstop Dansby Swanson this winter, Heyman hears. Both Inciarte and Swanson have come up in trade rumors this offseason. Moving Inciarte would free up center field for Ronald Acuna Jr., but it would also take a capable starting outfielder away from a team which already needs help in that area as it is. The Braves are better situated in the middle infield, where a Swanson-less version of the club could deploy a combination of Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo as its starters. Still, there’s reportedly hesitation on the Braves’ part to move Swanson. While Swanson hasn’t lived up to the hype that came with going No. 1 overall in the 2015 draft, he’s still young (24), just one full season into his career and controllable through 2022.
  • The Angels were reportedly in the mix for free-agent starters Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi before they signed elsewhere, and the team hasn’t done anything since then to bolster its rotation. The need for high-end starters remains obvious, then, though the Angels are shopping in the second tier of the market – not at the top – per Heyman. As of now, the Angels are neither willing to go big on a free-agent starter (the priciest one remaining figures to be Dallas Keuchel) nor take a significant chunk out of their farm system to improve their rotation, according to Heyman. General manager Billy Eppler noted the importance of building a strong system earlier in the week, and it doesn’t seem he’s willing to take any steps backward in that department.
  • The belief is that the Phillies have “considered” free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas as a fallback if they’re unable to sign Manny Machado, Heyman writes. Needless to say, Moustakas is a far less exciting option than Machado. It’s also debatable whether Moustakas would serve as a substantial offensive upgrade over incumbent starting third baseman Maikel Franco, judging by the similar production the two posted in 2018. Of course, Moustakas certainly carries the more impressive track record of the two at the plate; further, unlike Franco, Moustakas hasn’t been a defensive liability over the course of his career.
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