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September Rule 5 Roundup

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This year’s Rule 5 draft class has shown that the Winter Meeting-capping selection process still has meaning. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explained recently, a remarkably high-quality group of players swapped hands last December, and odds are that few of them will end up returning to their original teams.

For reference, here are the season’s leaderboards for the players who have accrued major league statistics, for both Rule 5 hitters and pitchers. Let’s have a look at where things stand with the season all but over (at least so far as Rule 5 roster considerations are concerned).

Keepers With Immediate Function

Far from clogging roster space, Odubel Herrera (Phillies), Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers), and Mark Canha have all been heavily-used, productive contributors to their respective teams. Herrera, in particular, has been a revelation, tallying over three wins above replacement at 23 years of age.

On the pitching side of the equation, Mets selection Sean Gilmartin has been nothing short of excellent in his 45 2/3 frames with the club. The lefty has worked to a 2.56 ERA and seeming to be quite a useful asset moving forward.

Twins right-hander J.R. Graham, meanwhile, has exceeded Gilmartin in usage — he’s nearing sixty innings for a contending club — but hasn’t matched the results. Graham owns just a 5.09 ERA, though there are some signs of hope for the future. He has a respectable 7.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 to go with a 46.8% groundball rate, and SIERA values his contributions at a solid 3.76.

Needless to say, all of the above players will be retained by their new organizations. While many Rule 5ers who are successfully acquired end up back in the minors following their season of limbo, the odds seem good that all of these players will once again be significant pieces of their teams’ puzzles in 2016.

Little-Used, Future-Looking Assets

Of course, there are other Rule 5 selections who are now all but certain to be kept. But the road traveled by their teams involved much more difficult roster juggling. As with Adrian Nieto (White Sox) and Wei-Chung Wang (Brewers) last year, these players were not significant contributors at the major league level despite taking up active roster spots all season long.

25-year-old infielder Taylor Featherston has had at least some function given his valuable glove, but has slashed just .156/.210/.227 in only 141 plate appearances for the Angels. He makes for a nice analogue to Nieto, who similarly was considered a quality defender up the middle who wasn’t quite ready for MLB pitching, but managed to hold on all season long. Featherston could follow suit and return to the minors next year.

This year’s first overall Rule 5 pick Oscar Hernandez missed the beginning of the season for the Diamondbacks when he hit the DL with a broken hamate bone. He was activated in early July, just in time to spend the required ninety days on the active roster to complete a Rule 5 acquisition. He’s slashed just .107/.219/.143 in a meager 33 plate appearances since that time, so he’s all but certain to be sent down in 2016.

Orioles righty Jason Garcia has only thrown 27 innings, posting a 4.33 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. Like Wang last year, a mid-season injury eased the active roster burden in his case. It’s not yet clear what will happen with Garcia next year, but it’s likely that he’ll go on optional assignment to develop as a starter.

Also set to be retained upon the conclusion of the 2015 season are lefties Andrew McKirahan (Braves) and David Rollins (Mariners). The two southpaws have had startlingly similar paths: PED suspensions that actually made it easier for their clubs to retain them, followed by fairly ugly earned run averages but reasonably promising peripherals in limited action. Both will cross the 90-day threshold this year, so they can be retained without requiring time on the roster to start 2016.

Still In Limbo

It is possible for a player to remain with a selecting team but still remain in limbo. That’s because of the aforementioned 90-day rule. Players that haven’t spent that much time on the active roster due to DL or suspension stints must first accrue the remainder in the following season before they can be permanently acquired. If and when they do reach that point, such players can be freely optioned to the minors by their new teams.

This year there is one such multi-year player: righty Daniel Winkler, was a Tommy John patient who was only just activated recently by the Braves after missing most of the year. Hhe’s yet to appear in competitive action for the Atlanta organization — in the minors or the majors — and had never seen big league action before the year. He’ll pick up just under a month of time on the active roster late this year, and will need to be on the club’s 25-man for about two months at the start of next season for his rights to be kept.

Already Returned

The ride was over months ago for a trio of hurlers: Jandel Gustave, Logan Verrett, and Andy Oliver. The first two were returned to their former teams, while Oliver hit free agency because he was a two-time Rule 5 pick. Interestingly, Verrett has played a reasonably significant role in the majors with his original team since being returned. He’s thrown 23 1/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball, with 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9, for the soon-to-be NL East champs.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Puerto Rico, Park

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Phillies president Pat Gillick will officially pass the baton to future-president Andy MacPhail in roughly 45 days, writes Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. However, the first decision of the MacPhail administration was made on Thursday when the club dismissed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. Kaplan provides a look at potential candidates and names Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak as a possible favorite. Klentak, 34, fits plurality owner John Middleton’s suggestion that MacPhail “hire himself.” Klentak was also a favorite of MacPhail while both executives were with the Orioles. Former Reds GM Wayne Krivisky, Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo, and Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler are also names to watch.

  • Regular season games may return to Puerto Rico in 2016 for the first time since 2004, writes Bill Shaiken of the LA Times. Major League Baseball plans to honor Puerto Rican legend Roberto Clemente in a series between the Pirates and Marlins. Details are as yet unconfirmed per Shaiken’s anonymous source. The visit could include part or all of a four game set between the two clubs. Shaiken also writes about the history of talent development out of Puerto Rico. When the island was included in the Rule 4 draft beginning in 1990, clubs refocused international scouting efforts to Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Unfortunately, the unintended consequence weakened the popularity of baseball in Puerto Rico.
  • We learned earlier today about how Jung-ho Kang’s success could influence the earning power of fellow Korean star Byung-ho Park. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes about the “paradox” or Kang’s success. When Yoenis Cespedes and Ichiro Suzuki were acquired from their respective markets, they were a relative bargain. They were followed by Jose Abreu and Daisuke Matsuzaka respectively. In both cases, the second player earned substantially more. As such, the Pirates may be pushed out of the market for Park. Sawchik does have a word of caution. Davenport translations suggest Park may only be a roughly .249/.323/.443 hitter with 24 home runs. Teams may want to be careful about investing Abreu or Matsuzaka money in Park.

NL Notes: Stanton, Phillies, Kang

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Dave Schoenfield of ESPN’s list of five stars who could be traded this offseason is topped by a provocative name: that of Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Schoenfield doesn’t suggest a Stanton trade is likely, only that it’s a possibility, given how unpredictable the Marlins can be. Schoenfield speculates that Dodgers as a potential match if the Marlins put Stanton on the market. Stanton has full no-trade protection, but might well be willing to waive it if the Dodgers were to deal for him, given that he was born and raised in Southern California. The Dodgers presumably would also have relatively little trouble absorbing Stanton’s enormous contract. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Now that the Phillies have dismissed Ruben Amaro, their open GM position should be an attractive one to potential candidates, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes. They have plenty of young talent, including Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola and a host of prospects they acquired when trading veterans. They also have few troublesome contracts.
  • Pirates infielder Jung-Ho Kang is cutting a path for other players from the Korea Baseball Organization to come to the U.S., Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Kang has excelled in his first season in the big leagues, hitting .288/.358/.468 while also providing value on the bases and on defense. That’s led to 4.1 fWAR, so the $2.5MM he’ll make this season is a fraction of what he’s worth. The next Korean star set to come to the big leagues is Kang’s friend former Nexen Heroes teammate Byung-Ho Park. “(Park) has much more power than I have,” says Kang. The Pirates could be in the market for a first baseman this offseason and have scouted Park. The big contract it will surely now take to sign Park would, however, block top first base prospect Josh Bell, who hit well upon being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis this season.

NL East Notes: Jennings, Gillick, Fernandez, Aardsma

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Having just begun to look for a new baseball operations leader, the Phillies have at least some interest in Marlins manager (and recent GM) Dan Jennings, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (Twitter links). Philadelphia has yet to request permission to interview Jennings, who is not only still manning the dugout in Miami but reportedly has an offer on the table to step back into the GM role there. It’s a complicated situation already, but interest from the Phillies, who have quite an appealing GM opportunity up for grabs, would be an interesting wild card.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Outgoing Phillies president Pat Gillick says he’s not sure what he’ll pursue next, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. “At this point, I haven’t even thought about it,” said the long-time, 78-year-old executive. Gillick also acknowledged that he was not surprised that his replacement, Andy MacPhail, had decided to find a new GM rather than keeping Ruben Amaro Jr. “I don’t think … the public would really accept that,” said Gillick, who has long been a supporter of the deposed Amaro. “That wasn’t the reason the decision was made, but certainly the fans and the public play into every organization in the sports industry.”
  • The Marlins hope to avoid the recent Matt Harvey controversy with their own ace, Jose Fernandez, as Spencer writes. Both pitchers, of course, are in their first seasons back from Tommy John surgery. Fernandez himself says he does not foresee any difficulties in working out an approach before the season, noting that he expects the team will meet with his agent (Scott Boras, as with Harvey) and medical experts to arrive at an agreement. The young righty added that a plan was in place this year, had the Fish remained in contention, to help limit the strain on his recently-replaced UCL while maximizing his value to the club.
  • The Braves recently designated and then released right-hander David Aardsma, and he has penned an interesting piece on the subject at Baseball Essential. We cover an awful lot of DFAs here, and it’s easy to forget that there is a person involved who faces a potentially life-changing impact. Aardsma walks through the process from the awkward moment of hitting DFA limbo through the battle to stay prepared for another opportunity. It’s a great read and well worth your time.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Cespedes, GM Openings, Offseason Decisions

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The Mets expect that they’ll receive calls on righty Matt Harvey, but have no intentions of discounting his trade value based on the recent shutdown controversy, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Harvey is reportedly displeased with some statements from the front office, per Heyman, though it’s far from clear whether there will be any long-term ramifications from the flare-up.

That’s just one of many interesting notes in a column that is chock full of information. Here are some more notable items:

  • Also in the news recently, of course, is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who has thrived with the Mets and just tweaked his contract to make a re-signing possible. Heyman says that the movement on that front was generated by Cespedes’s side, with the team readily agreeing to the proposal. Steve Adams and I discussed this on Thursday’s edition of the MLBTR Podcast, generally agreeing that he’s unlikely to return despite that agreement given other needs and the presence of Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, and Michael Cuddyer. But Heyman hears that New York is “expected to make a serious play” for the soon-to-be free agent. Certainly, that’s an important open market storyline to watch this fall and winter. Despite the presence of several other highly-regarded players on the coming market, Heyman says a deal of $175MM (or even more) for the Cuban star would not be surprising.
  • The Red Sox’ GM hiring appears to be wide open, with Heyman writing that Diamondbacks senior VP of baseball operations De Jon Watson presents one possibility from another organization and AGM Mike Hazen could be an internal option. Other names that have come up include the frequently-mentioned Frank Wren and Brewers VP of amateur scouting Ray Montgomery.
  • There is a “prevailing belief” that Reds GM Walt Jocketty will keep his position, says Heyman, though manager Bryan Price seems somewhat more likely to lose his job after a rough season. On the other hand, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale did suggest today on Twitter that Jocketty could be shifted into an advisory role, with Cincinnati hiring a new general manager.
  • Yankees GM Billy Eppler is seen as the favorite to take the GM position with the Angels, says Heyman. Rangers GM Thad Levine could also get a long look, per the report.
  • The Phillies’ GM position just opened, of course, and Heyman says it will be in high demand among young executives — not only because of Philadelphia’s resources, but because the new general manager could be handed fairly broad authority. Possible names have been filtering out since even before Ruben Amaro Jr. was let go, and Heyman lists Angels AGM Matt Klentak, Giants scouting director John Barr, Royals AGM J.J. Piccolo, and the aforementioned Levine as some of the possibilities.
  • Fans calling for the Braves to replace manager Fredi Gonzalez may not get their wish, says Heyman. Gonzalez is “said to be in no jeopardy,” per the report.
  • The Tigers have a lot of work to do under new GM Al Avila, and Heyman says their “winter wish list” includes an outfielder — possibly Cespedes, though he may be too expensive, along with two starters and several bullpen arms. Detroit expects to plunk down some cash in the offseason, he adds.
  • It’s always seemed likely that the Blue Jays would pick up their $12MM option over veteran righty R.A. Dickey, and Heyman says that is highly likely as things stand. Toronto will also at least attempt to retain lefty David Price, who has obviously been outstanding (even by his lofty standards) since being acquired at the deadline.
  • The Dodgers will likely extend lefty Brett Anderson a qualifying offer. The 27-year-old has been well worth the $10MM that Los Angeles paid him this year, putting up a 3.36 ERA over 158 innings — his highest tally since his rookie campaign way back in 2009. Given his age and the fact that he has a nice platform to work from, it would seem likely that Anderson will decline a QO (if extended), though he’ll face a crowded market.
  • Padres president Mike Dee tells Heyman that the organization is frustrated, but has good relationships in its upper front office and is looking forward rather than looking back at last winter. San Diego will need to make a permanent decision with its field staff, and is said to be undecided on whether to retain interim skipper Pat Murphy.
  • Meanwhile, the Padres are assessing “whether to tweak or completely retool” its roster. Interestingly, Melvin Upton has played well enough that he could end up with a regular role as a platoon partner in center alongside Travis Jankowski. San Diego will face a somewhat difficult decision on whether to make starter Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer, but it appears the organization is leaning towards doing so.

Reactions To And Effects Of Ruben Amaro’s Dismissal

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The Phillies made a move that many felt to be inevitable yesterday when they announced that Ruben Amaro Jr.’s contract would not be extended, and assistant GM Scott Proefrock would become interim GM immediately as the team began its search for a new full-time general manager. Plenty has already been written about the decision and what it means for the Phillies’ future, and here are some early reactions and aftereffects in the wake of the fifth front-office shakeup we’ve seen in about two months’ time…

  • Amaro’s firing was “only a matter of time,” writes ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, but he did well to position his successor for a quick turnaround with recent trades of Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley and others. Crasnick lists former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto, former Cubs GM Jim Hendry and current Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo as potential candidates, also noting that former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington isn’t likely to pursue any GM opening at present, thus removing him from consideration. President-to-be Andy MacPhail told Crasnick that he isn’t limiting himself to targeting a specific “type” of GM (e.g. a young, analytically savvy candidate or a more traditional, scouting-based GM). Said MacPhail to Crasnick: “Let’s look at a wide spectrum of candidates. You might be surprised.”
  • MacPhail said at yesterday’s press conference (via MLB.com’s Paul Hagen) that while he will, of course, have a role in roster decisions and general baseball operations — “…let’s face it, I’m not here for my marketing acumen,” he joked — any GM he hires will have a good deal of power. “I’ve had GMs under me before,” said MacPhail. “If you talk to them, I think they feel like they had a fair amount of autonomy, which I think is important to them to be able to do their job. They can’t be in short pants running back to the president every time they have to make a decision. … They should keep me apprised, but that is a balance I’m going to have to strike.”
  • MacPhail feels that it would be ideal to have a new GM in place by the time the Phillies hold their organizational meetings on Oct. 26, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, but he admitted that said timeline may be a bit “ambitious.” Hiring an outside-the-box thinker is key to the hire, whether he comes from an analytical background or scouting background, writes Salisbury, though if the selection is of the latter variety, MacPhail will look to add to his analytics department in other ways. Proefrock, who has worked for MacPhail in the past (with the Orioles) will receive some consideration for the full-time position, per Salisbury, but Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak could be the early favorite. Klentak, whose name has been mentioned in connection with the Phillies’ presumed GM vacancy in the past, was the Orioles’ director of baseball ops while MacPhail served as president. Also named by Salisbury are Dipoto, Picollo, Hendry, Yankees AGM Billy Eppler, Giants scouting director John Barr and Angels pro scouting director Hal Morris.
  • Partial owner John Middleton offered his take at yesterday’s presser as well, Salisbury notes, stating that he wants MacPhail to find a young version of himself. “And I say that because, 30 years ago, a very young Andy MacPhail was a general manager, a newly minted general manger at that,” said Middleton. “This guy was sitting in an office in Minneapolis and he was playing with mathematical, statistical, analytical tools. And he was using them to try to figure out how he could make better evaluations and therefore better personnel decisions. Andy was constantly pushing himself to get better.” (Salisbury has a second piece with further, more in-depth quotes from the press conference for those interested.)
  • Interim manager Pete Mackanin has a good chance at returning in 2016, sans the “interim” label, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. “I would encourage everybody not to make any assumptions about what’s happening today to have any domino impact on the manager,” said MacPhail. “…I know the tradition is that the GM picks his manager. I’ll just go full disclosure here, if that happens, and it takes you a while to find a GM and then he gets consumed the first month or two with a manager and coaching staff, look how much of the offseason we’ve lost. That’s a high price to pay.” MacPhail said the best way to measure a manager is by the energy, effort and enthusiasm he gets out of whatever talent is provided to him, and Mackanin has shined in that area thus far.
  • MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that he expects to see Dan Jennings’ name connected to the Phillies’ GM opening if he does not return to his former post as Marlins general manager following the season.

Ruben Amaro Out As Phillies GM

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The Phillies announced today that they will not extend the contract of general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. According to a team press release, assistant GM Scott Proefrock will take over as interim GM, effective immediately. The team’s search for a new, permanent GM begins today, per the release.

Ruben Amaro, Jr.“It’s never an easy decision to make a change,” said president-to-be Andy MacPhail in the press release. “Ruben has had a direct impact on some of the best years in the team’s history. He helped to create some great memories for Phillies fans with his accomplishments, but in order to return to a top-contending club, we believe this is the right thing to do as we continue the rebuilding process.”

The writing has been on the wall for quite some time that Amaro’s days as GM were numbered. It’s been widely expected that in the wake of the team’s collapse over the past four seasons, MacPhail would seek to hire a new GM to guide the Phillies — possibly one that will bring a stronger commitment to analytics to the organization.

Amaro, 50, has been the Phillies’ general manager since the 2008 offseason, when he succeeded Pat Gillick. The Phillies made a World Series run in Amaro’s first full year as GM, ultimately coming up short to the Yankees, and went on to reach the postseason in the 2010 and 2011 campaigns as well. However, a number of the trades made by Amaro that were aimed at keeping the team in contention served, instead, to only deplete the farm system while failing to pay significant on-field dividends. Some of the more notable names moved in his time as GM include Carlos Carrasco, Travis d’Arnaud, Jarred Cosart, J.A. Happ, Vance Worley, Trevor May, Domingo Santana and Jon Singleton.

While Amaro does deserve some credit for acquiring Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee without surrendering any players that have, to this point, gone on to stardom (some would suggest that Carrasco is well on his way — an argument I’d support), it can also be said that he committed too strongly to an aging core when seeking younger alternatives would have been more prudent. Specifically, the Ryan Howard contract and Carlos Ruiz signings stand out as missteps that are still haunting the team (with Howard’s $125MM extension serving as perhaps the most egregious error of his tenure). Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley all could have been allowed to hit free agency (or been traded in the final season of their previous contracts) but were instead re-signed to deals that ultimately carried negative value. The Phillies have also traditionally not been significant spenders on the international front, although that’s begun to change in recent signing periods (including this summer’s $4MM investment in 16-year-old Dominican slugger Jhailyn Ortiz).

In fact, there’s little denying that the Phillies’ farm system as a whole has improved substantially over the past few seasons with Amaro at the helm. J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola both look to be outstanding top picks, and farmhand Ken Giles has emerged as one of the best young relievers in all of baseball. Maikel Franco looks like a star in the making at third base and should be considered a feather in the cap for Phillies’ international scouts. Trades of several veterans have netted arms such as Ben Lively, Tom Windle, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher and Nick Pivetta, while position prospects such as Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Darnell Sweeney have entered the picture as well. Odubel Herrera may be the best pick from this past Rule 5 Draft as well.

Although that restocking of the farm system falls under the “too little, too late” category for Amaro, it does help to create an appealing job opening for prospective general managers. The Phillies boast a rising farm system, a well-respected president in MacPhail, an excellent 2016 draft position and significant payroll capacity. Beyond that, there are no commitments on the books beyond the 2017 season, save for a $2MM buyout on Matt Harrison’s club option. As such, the Phillies GM vacancy figures to be a highly appealing position despite the club’s lack of recent success.

With the Phillies now in the hunt for a GM, that creates five such openings around the league. The Angels, Mariners, Red Sox and Brewers are all on the hunt for new general managers as well, meaning there will be a significant amount of baseball operations changes in the coming months. Not only will each team employ a new GM, but those five newly minted executives will undoubtedly have some changes in store for the baseball operations departments and the field staffs which they’ll inherit upon taking their new roles.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Eovaldi, Gee, Black, Phils, Parra

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The Yankees will shut down righty Nate Eovaldi for at least two weeks with elbow inflammation, as WFAN’s Sweeny Murti reports on Twitter. While New York will obviously hope that amount of rest will be sufficient, ESPNNewYork.com’s Andrew Marchand tweets that it’s possible Eovaldi won’t return this year. That would be a significant blow to the Yankees, as the righty has generated solid reviews from ERA estimators and increasingly achieved the results to match. Added in the winter trade that sent Martin Prado to the Marlins, Eovaldi can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Here are a few more notes from the eastern divisions:

  • With the Triple-A season now concluded, the Mets have apparently elected not to bring back righties Dillon Gee and Vic Black, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com notes (Twitter links). The 29-year-old Gee had long seemed like an obvious September call-up after previously being outrighted, but it seems the relationship has soured somewhat. Because he accepted an outright assignment, Rubin notes, Gee can elect free agency at the end of the year. If he doesn’t, of course, he’s almost certain at this point to be released or non-tendered by the club. As for Black, if he was not worth a 40-man spot now, it’s hard to imagine that the Mets will give him one later this fall to keep him from becoming a minor league free agent.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. explains that he is not yet focused on next summer’s draft, but nevertheless has some ideas about the team’s intentions, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. Philadelphia is not worried about whether or not it lands the top overall pick, says Amaro, and won’t adjust its big league decisions based on any such considerations. As for the draft itself, Amaro offered some general thoughts. “There is some pretty good pitching up top,” he said. “I think we’re going to be pitching intensive. Obviously, we always try to take the best player, but I think our mindset is probably pitching.”
  • Orioles outfielder Gerardo Parra may be able to land a free agent deal in the mold of that of Nick Markakis, opines Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com, but his current team should not value him that highly. As I noted in a recent look at Parra’s free agent case, a four-year deal certainly seems plausible for the still-youthful veteran, though it’s certainly possible too that he could settle for three or take a slightly lower AAV than did Markakis. I tend to agree that Baltimore will not and should not be the team to give out that kind of contract, though that assessment depends upon the team’s still-unclear strategic direction.

Three Needs: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies aren’t on anybody’s list to contend next season. They’re currently the worst team in baseball with a 53-83 record. They’ve already “clinched” their third straight losing season, and they would have to win 20 of the final 26 games to get back to where they finished in 2013 and 2014 (73-89). Fans probably don’t even want to see that level of success down the stretch. As it stands, the Phillies are poised to make the first overall selection in the 2016 Rule 4 draft.

Despite all the dismal notes, there are reasons to feel optimistic about the future of the club – perhaps as soon as 2016. The financial problems of the past have been relaxed. Only three players are under contract beyond this season – Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, and Matt Harrison. The trio is owed $46.5MM. Cliff Lee is due a $12.5MM buyout. Domonic Brown is the only arbitration eligible player on the roster. He avoided arbitration for $2.6MM this season and appears to be a non-tender candidate. Even if he’s retained, I doubt he’ll earn more than $3.5MM.

The Phillies will eventually open their war chest. The question is – when? Here are three issues the club should address this winter…

1. Commit to a front office and managerial staff. The first order of business is to complete the transfer of power from current president Pat Gillick to presumed future president Andy MacPhail. The longtime baseball executive is serving in an advisory role, although it is clear the club plans for him to succeed Gillick.

Entering the season, it was very widely assumed that GM Ruben Amaro’s contract would be allowed to lapse at the end of the season. After all, he oversaw the plunge from five straight division titles to this ignominious season. Irresponsible contracts are often blamed for the downfall, but the root of the issue is even simpler – the championship core got old, and reinforcements never arrived.

Per FanGraphs WAR, Howard hasn’t been an above average player since 2009. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee both broke down before the end of their contracts. Others like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, and Shane Victorino suffered predictable age-related decline. Brown, once Baseball America’s number one prospect, never lived up to the hype. He was the only high ceiling prospect to crack the roster between their last contending season and 2014 when Maikel Franco briefly debuted.

It’s easy to blame irresponsible spending and poor roster construction on the GM. And perhaps that’s where we should stop when evaluating Amaro. It’s also hard to know just how much autonomy Amaro possessed. Unsubstantiated rumors suggest that part-owner John Middleton had a hand in several major moves including the acquisition of Halladay, the subsequent trade of Lee, and the extension of Howard. Without insider knowledge, it’s impossible to know what went on behind the scenes.

Amaro has clawed back some personal respectability this season by transforming the farm system via trade. After overseeing a series of bleak drafts, a few top prospects including Aaron Nola, Franco, and J.P. Crawford have emerged. Amaro also patiently turned Cole Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon, Ben Revere, and others into about half of the team’s top 20 prospects. Is overseeing a successful fire sale enough to give Amaro a second chance?

While MacPhail decides on a GM – be it Amaro or a new candidate – he’ll also need to consider managerial choices. The Phillies do have an internal option, interim manager Pete Mackanin. This is the third time he has served as an interim manager, and he has never held the role on a permanent basis. Per Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, “scouts have been impressed with the energy the Phillies have shown on the field,” since Mackanin took over. The team is 27-35 under his stewardship and 24-21 over the last 45 games.

2. Find Pitching. Once the roles of club president, GM, and manager are officially staffed, it will be time to work on the roster. The conservative approach would be to organically develop cost controlled talent before making a splash on a few pricey free agents. This is roughly the approach followed by the Nationals. However, other clubs have taken a more aggressive tact. Even the Nationals inked Jayson Werth before they were truly ready to contend.

One thing is clear, the Phillies need pitching. The lineup may lack star power, but there is depth and interesting talent. The same can’t really be said of the pitching staff. Nola appears to be a viable mid-rotation workhorse. Jerad Eickhoff, acquired in the Hamels trade, has pitched well in three starts. Adam Morgan has survived 13 starts with a 4.42 ERA and an ugly 5.33 FIP. Beyond that trio, the internal candidates are all unproven prospects without big pedigrees. Jake Thompson, also part of the Hamels trade, is the only one with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. Some scouts compare him to Jonathan Papelbon.

External additions are necessary. While the club has as many as seven future big league starters who could help next season, a couple proven innings eaters would greatly help team cohesion while lessening the strain on a shallow bullpen. Philadelphia has the money to dip into the top of the free agent market for a David Price, Zack Grienke, or Johnny Cueto. However, they would have to feel confident about a quick rebuild to make such a substantial investment on a pitcher. Their experiences with Halladay and Lee might cause them to hesitate.

The obvious approach is to find more stopgaps like Aaron Harang and Jerome Williams. Options like Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Kazmir, and Mike Leake might serve as a compromise between aggression and conservatism. And, of course, the Phillies are well-situated to add buy-low veterans on short-term deals, possibly flipping those that work out at the trade deadline. In my opinion, the team would ideally add three veteran starters. They should also be active on the trade market.

3. Resolve the Howard situation. The Phillies have done everything they can to find a taker for Howard. He’s still a decent hitter against right-handed pitching, slashing .262/.314/.499 this season (119 wRC+). In trade rumors, he’s been tied to the Orioles on multiple occasions. Camden Yards is extremely friendly to left-handed power. If Baltimore fails to re-sign Chris Davis, Howard could offer an inexpensive alternative.

Regardless of what happens, the Phillies will be on the hook for most or all of the remaining $35MM guaranteed to Howard. They’re unlikely to acquire a meaningful prospect in return for him. So why bother with a trade? It’s a matter of opportunity cost.

So long as Howard remains with the club, they aren’t evaluating new options on the major league roster. They could try to acquire a position-less, Quad-A power bat or even trade for a blocked prospect like Dan Vogelbach. Top Korean power hitter Byung-ho Park may be posted this offseason. Howard’s presence on the roster doesn’t stop the club from pursuing these alternatives, but it does reduce the urgency to make a move. And it may block the discovery of a pleasant surprise like Chris Colabello, Danny Valencia, or Justin Bour.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Amaro, Eppler, Keuchel

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports:

  • The Phillies haven’t yet decided what to do with GM Ruben Amaro. On the surface, that seems strange, since other teams could soon hire top GM candidates to fill their open positions. The likely reason the Phillies haven’t made a move, Rosenthal suggests, is that incoming club president Andy MacPhail prefers not to rush decisions.
  • Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler is reportedly a top candidate for the open Angels GM job, and he wants the position, even though accepting it would mean working around owner Arte Moreno and influence-wielding manager Mike Scioscia. Eppler is from Southern California and would like to return to the area, Rosenthal says.
  • Dallas Keuchel has put himself in a good negotiating position in potential extension talks with the Astros and he ought not to be desperate to accept one, Rosenthal opines. Keuchel will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is already set for a significant payout in 2016, one that would only increase if he wins the Cy Young award. On top of that, it’s extremely unlikely that the Astros would non-tender him the following offseason, so he has already nearly guaranteed himself two years of good salaries.
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