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NL Central Notes: Pirates, Kang, Baez, Reds

By Steve Adams and Mark Polishuk | January 22, 2015 at 6:00pm CDT

The Pirates deserve praise for the depth they’ve built on their Major League roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his daily Insider-only blog post (subscription required and recommended). More and more, Olney writes, the Pirates are beginning to look like the second coming of the perennially-contending Cardinals, with talented players that can handle multiple positions, safeguarding the club against regression and injury. For instance, Josh Harrison can play right field if Gregory Polanco’s adjustment to the Majors stalls again in 2015, with Jung-ho Kang sliding into third in his stead. Kang could also unseat Jordy Mercer at short if Mercer struggles, and the team has plenty of options at first base in addition to Pedro Alvarez, including Corey Hart, Sean Rodriguez and Andrew Lambo. That depth breeds success, which paired with the revitalization of pitchers A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, Edinson Volquez and Vance Worley, makes Pittsburgh a very desirable free agent destination — particularly for pitchers.

More on the Pirates and the NL Central…

  • The questions about Kang’s defense may not be an issue given how the Pirates have used shifts to cover up for their generally unimpressive fielding, Fangraphs’ Miles Wray writes.  If Kang’s defense isn’t an issue, Wray feels the Bucs made an acceptable risk in signing Kang given his power-hitting potential.
  • Javier Baez is having a tough time in Puerto Rico winter ball, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi reports, as the Cubs prospect is still plagued by strikeouts.  It is starting to look like Baez could begin the 2015 season in Triple-A unless he enjoys a big Spring Training.
  • Tony Cingrani and Anthony DeSclafani are the current favorites to fill the two remaining spots in the Reds rotation, though manager Bryan Price tells reporters (including C. Trent Rosencrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that nothing has been decided.  Jason Marquis, David Holmberg and Raicel Iglesias stand out as possible contenders to earn a rotation spot in Spring Training, with Iglesias something of an “X-factor” given how he went several months without pitching while arranging his departure from Cuba.
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Central Notes: Shields, Scherzer, Kang, Cubs

By charliewilmoth | January 17, 2015 at 4:18pm CDT

Recent discussions between free agent James Shields and the Tigers make sense for both sides, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes. The Tigers have a good rotation for 2015 but could lose David Price and Alfredo Simon after the season, meaning Shields could be a good addition both for 2015 and beyond. Morosi adds that the Tigers have maintained contact with Scott Boras about Max Scherzer, although there are no indications that discussions have gotten very far. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Likewise, it makes sense for the Cardinals to sign Scherzer, Morosi writes. Morosi reports that Scherzer and the Cardinals have made known to one another that both sides are interested, but notes that the length and dollar amount of the sort of contract Scherzer is seeking might be an issue for the Cardinals. One way for the two sides to come to terms, Morosi suggests, would be for the Cardinals to offer fewer years (perhaps five) at a high average annual value. (Morosi suggests $156MM, which would give Scherzer the highest AAV ever for a pitcher.) Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said today, however, that the team is not shopping for expensive pitchers (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch on Twitter).
  • The Pirates’ signing of Jung-ho Kang has upside but comes with little risk, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Pirates’ financial obligations are minimal (about $16MM over four years, including Kang’s posting fee), and if Kang proves effective, he could give the Pirates valuable infield insurance in case third baseman Josh Harrison or shortstop Jordy Mercer don’t continue to work out. (Harrison would appear to be set as a starter for the next couple years after a borderline-MVP-caliber season in 2014, but anything can happen.) Also, Kang is signed through at least 2018, while second baseman Neil Walker has only two years remaining before he’s eligible for free agency. As Sawchik points out in a separate article, Kang could also make plenty of money for the Pirates by attracting advertising from Korean companies.
  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said at Cubs Convention today that other teams have inquired about catcher Welington Castillo, but that the Cubs haven’t yet received any compelling offers, Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune tweets. With the additions of Miguel Montero and David Ross this offseason, there’s no obvious role for Castillo in Chicago, even though he has a solid track record as an offensive catcher. Via Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald (on Twitter), Hoyer added that Ross was too good not to acquire, despite Castillo’s talent. The 37-year-old Ross has hit sparingly in the past two seasons but has a solid record as a pitch framer.
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Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures

By Jeff Todd | January 17, 2015 at 12:27am CDT

With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.

Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.

That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).

Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.

And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:

  • The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
  • Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
  • Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
  • Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
  • Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).

Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:

  • David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
  • Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
  • The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
  • Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
  • The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
  • On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Aroldis Chapman Bud Norris Carlos Carrasco Chris Coghlan Chris Tillman Danny Espinosa Danny Valencia David Freese David Price Devin Mesoraco Dexter Fowler Eric Hosmer Garrett Richards Greg Holland Jerry Blevins Josh Donaldson Logan Morrison Mark Melancon Mat Latos Mike Minor Neil Walker Steve Pearce Todd Frazier Tony Sipp Vance Worley Zach Britton

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Pirates GM Neal Huntington On Signing Jung-ho Kang

By Zachary Links | January 16, 2015 at 8:24pm CDT

Earlier today, the Pirates announced that they have officially signed Korean infielder Jung-ho Kang to a four-year deal.  The appeal to Kang is clear.  He slashed .356/.459/.739 for the Nexen Heroes of the (admittedly hitter-friendly) Korea Baseball Organization with 40 homers across 117 total games in 2014.  What wasn’t so clear about the signing is where Kang will fit in with the Pirates.  Earlier today, I asked General Manager Neal Huntington about how he anticipates that Kang will be used in Pittsburgh.

“We like the player a lot but we also understand and respect that there’s going to be a significant transition period here, not just on the field, but off the field as well.  We want him to transition culturally as well as professionally and as he comes into camp he’ll very much complement our major league team,” Huntington said on the conference call.  “We’re looking forward to confirming our belief about his ability at shortstop, he has played some third, and we know he can play some second but right now he’ll come in as a complementary player as he adjusts to major league baseball and the United States in general.”

While there will be an adjustment period for Kang, the Pirates want the infielder to get acclimated to life in the majors right away.  That means that Huntington & Co. have no intention of sending Kang down to the minor leagues for seasoning.

Huntington says that Kang is on board with serving in a complementary role in 2015, despite recent comments that he made which suggested that he wanted to start immediately.  The Bucs GM chalked that up to something of a miscommunication: any major leaguer, he says, will assert that they are starting caliber if asked.  By the same token, Huntington says that Kang respects the hard work that Bucs teammates like Josh Harrison have put in to earn their leading roles.

The Pirates are excited about welcoming Kang into the fold but not everyone in the baseball world is a believer.  The KBO boasts notoriously boosted batting lines and many equate the league’s level of competition with Double-A baseball.  In Huntington’s mind, that’s not necessarily a fair comparison nor is it an accurate predictor of how well a Korean player can fare in the big leagues.  Japan’s NPB has a stronger level of competition but Huntington notes that many Japanese players haven’t been able to hack it in the States, and vice versa.

That skepticism over his level of competition led to a more tepid market than some anticipated at the outset of the offseason.  I asked Huntington if he had a sense of how many teams were ultimately in on the bidding process.

“It’s a blind process and on one hand its a bit disconcerting to not know, but on the other hand we don’t really care.  We got the player wanted for what we feel is a fair dollar amount that works for him and for us,” Huntington said.

If things work out with Kang, it certainly seems possible that he could displace someone in Pittsburgh’s current infield.  Huntington isn’t thinking that far ahead, however.

“This move was made to make us a better team. You can never have enough good players, You can never have enough quality major league players, especially ones that have versatility and can do it from the left side.  There’s no set script [that says] if he becomes a good player, we’re going to trade player X or player Y. If things go well, we’re going to have a very talented and deep position player group,” the GM explained.

In an interesting twist, Kang’s Nexen team will be training in Arizona this spring.  The Bucs will allow the infielder to work out with his former squad before flying across the country to meet them in Florida.

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Arbitration Filing Numbers

By Jeff Todd | January 16, 2015 at 6:24pm CDT

Many players will avoid arbitration today, and dozens of others exchanged figures with their teams in anticipation of hearings. Most cases won’t go to arbitration hearings, but teams such as the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox (per the most recent updates) are known for their “file and trial” policies. For players on those teams this marks the last chance at negotiations before a hearing.

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker will keep you up to date on every one of the filing numbers from around the game, but here are the highlights — players who filed for $5MM or more. Projections can be found here. Now for the details …

  • The Reds countered the $5.7MM filing of Todd Frazier with a $3.9MM figure, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter).
  • Third baseman David Freese filed at $7.6MM and the Angels countered at $5.25MM, WAPT’s Mike Perchick tweets. Halos outfielder Matt Joyce has filed for $5.2MM against a $4.2MM counter, according to Perchick (on Twitter).
  • Astros center fielder Dexter Fowler filed for $10.8MM while the club countered at $8.5MM, Perchick tweeets.
  • Pirates second baseman Neil Walker filed at $9MM while the club landed at $8MM, Perchick tweets.
  • Just-acquired reliever Tyler Clippard has filed for $8.85MM against the Athletics, who countered at $7.775MM, Perchick tweets.
  • Cardinals center fielder Jon Jay filed at $5MM while the team countered at $4.1MM, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets.
  • Pedro Alvarez has requested a $5.75MM salary for the coming season while the Pirates are at $5.25MM, per a tweet from Perchick.
  • Righty Mat Latos filed at $10.4MM and the Marlins countered with a $9.4MM figure, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
  • Third baseman Casey McGehee filed at $5.4MM, with the Giants countering at $4MM, Heyman tweets.
  • The Braves countered Mike Minor’s $5.6MM filing number with a $5.1MM team figure, Heyman reports on Twitter.
  • Mark Trumbo has filed for $6.9MM against a $5.3MM counter from the Diamondbacks, Heyman tweets. Closer Addison Reed, meanwhile, filed at $5.6MM with the team countering at $4.7MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles went with a $7.5MM price point for righty Bud Norris, who filed at $10.25MM, per Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). In both relative and absolute terms, there is an even bigger gap between the O’s ($2MM) and breakout slugger Steve Pearce ($5.4MM), who is looking to cash in on a big season in his final year of eligibility. That news also comes via Connolly, on Twitter.
  • Entering his final year of arbitration, infielder Daniel Murphy has filed for $8.6MM while the Mets have submitted a $7.4MM figure, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets.
  • Reds 9th inning man Aroldis Chapman filed for $8.7MM while the team countered at $6.65MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles and outfielder Alejandro De Aza will negotiate between filing figures of $5MM and $5.65MM, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets.
  • Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer filed at $6.7MM and the team countered at $4.6MM, Heyman tweets. The club will also have some ground to make up with closer Greg Holland, who filed at $9MM versus a team filing of $6.65MM, per another Heyman tweet.
  • Newly-acquired third baseman Josh Donaldson has filed at $5.75MM, while the Blue Jays countered at $4.3MM, Heyman tweets.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins New York Mets Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Addison Reed Alejandro De Aza Aroldis Chapman Bud Norris Casey McGehee Daniel Murphy David Freese Dexter Fowler Eric Hosmer Greg Holland Jon Jay Josh Donaldson Mark Trumbo Mat Latos Matt Joyce Mike Minor Neil Walker Pedro Alvarez Steve Pearce Todd Frazier Tyler Clippard

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2015 at 5:55pm CDT

With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures set for noon CT, there figure to be a large number of agreements to avoid arb today, as there were yesterday. All arbitration agreements can be followed using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, and we’ll keep track of today’s smaller agreements in this post, with all projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Righty Henderson Alvarez agreed to a $4MM deal with the Marlins, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported earlier today on Twitter. Alvarez had been projected to earn $4.5MM after putting up a huge 187-inning, 2.65 ERA campaign entering his first season of arb eligibility.
  • The Athletics have agreed to a $1.4MM deal with righty Ryan Cook that includes, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports on Twitter. Cook gets a slight increase over the $1.3MM he had been projected to earn. Oakland has also inked outfielder Sam Fuld to a $1.75MM deal, per Mike Perchik of WAPT (via Twitter). He too lands just above his projection, which was for $1.6MM.
  • Outfielder Collin Cowgill avoided arbitration with the Angels for $995K, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets. He was projected to earn $900K.
  • Righties David Carpenter and Nathan Eovaldi both have deals with the Yankees, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports on Twitter. Carpenter will earn about $1.3MM while Eovaldi will take home $3.3MM
  • The Rockies have a deal in place with lefty Rex Brothers, tweets MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Brothers was projected to earn $1.3MM but will take home $1.4MM, Harding adds via Twitter.
  • ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Cubs have settled with both Travis Wood and Luis Valbuena (Twitter links). Wood will receive $5.686MM — a bit north of his $5.5MM projection, while Valbuena will earn $4.2MM, per Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald (on Twitter). Valbuena was projected to earn $3.1MM.
  • Mike Perchick of WAPT in New Jersey has a wave of arbitration agreements, starting with the Astros and Hank Conger settling on a $1.075MM, which is just $25K behind Swartz’s projection (Twitter link).
  • Also via Perchick, the Athletics and Brett Lawrie settled on a $1.925MM contract (Twitter links). Lawrie, who had been projected at $1.8MM, was acquired by Oakland in the Josh Donaldson blockbuster.
  • Rockies backstop Michael McKenry will earn $1.0876MM in 2015, via Perchick. McKenry was projected by Swartz to earn $1.5MM.
  • Michael Pineda and the Yankees settled on a $2.1MM salary for the upcoming season, Perchick tweets, which is a direct match with Swartz’s projection.
  • Domonic Brown and the Phillies settled on a one-year pact worth $2.6MM, via Perchick, which represents a difference of just $100K between Swartz’s projection and the actual figure. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com tweets that Ben Revere has avoided arbitration as well, and the club now announces that he’ll earn $4.1MM — $100K north of his $4MM projection.
  • Red Sox setup man Junichi Tazawa agreed to a $2.25MM payday, according to Perchick. Swartz had pegged him for a $2MM contract.

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  • Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports (on Twitter) that Royals hurlers Tim Collins and Louis Coleman have settled for $1.475MM and $725K, respectively. Collins was projected at $1.5MM and Coleman at $700K.
  • The Rays have avoided arb with all of their eligible players. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that John Jaso will earn $3.175MM in 2015 after being projected at $3.3MM. Topkin also tweets that Logan Forsythe ($1.2MM projection) will earn $1.1MM. Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune reports (via Twitter) that Alex Cobb will receive $4MM (was projected at $4.5MM), Jake McGee will earn $3.55MM (projected $3.8MM) and Rene Rivera will earn $1.2MM (projected $1.3MM). Lastly, Drew Smyly will earn $2.65MM in 2015 with $50K of bonuses available based on games started, tweets Topkin. He was projected to earn $3MM.
  • Jason Castro will receive $4MM from the Astros for the 2015 season, tweets MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He’d been projected at $3.9MM. Meanwhile, southpaw Tony Sipp settled on a $2.4MM deal with Houston, per the Chronicle’s Even Drellich (on Twitter). That figure is significantly higher than his $1.5MM projection.
  • The Twins and Casey Fien settled on a $1.375MM salary for 2015, tweets 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson, which is a bit north of his $1.1MM projection.
  • Marco Estrada will receive $3.9MM from the Blue Jays in 2015, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, which comes in lighter than his $4.7MM projection.
  • Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times reports (on Twitter) that the Angels and Fernando Salas have settled on a one-year, $1.37MM deal for the 2015 season that comes in just shy of his $1.4MM projection.
  • Hernandez also tweets that the Dodgers will pay Justin Turner $2.5MM in 2015 — which is $300K north of his $2.2MM projection.
  • The Cubs and Jake Arrieta settled at $3.63MM for 2015, tweets Heyman, which is south of Swartz’s $4.1MM estimate.
  • The Pirates and Francisco Cervelli settled at $987.5K, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports — a figure that is $112K below MLBTR’s projection.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that Jared Hughes and the Pirates have settled at $1.075MM, or $25K less than his projected $1.1MM payday.
  • The Athletics and Josh Reddick agreed to a $4.1MM salary, per Heyman, which is $400K higher than his projected salary of $3.7MM.
  • Trevor Plouffe and Eduardo Nunez have settled on $4.8MM and $1.025MM salaries, respectively, with the Twins, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The duo projected to earn respective salaries of $4.3MM and $1.2MM.
  • Shawn Kelley’s agent, Mike McCann, tweets that his client agreed to a $2.835MM salary with the Padres, which is $335K higher than his $2.5MM projection.
  • ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports that Dillon Gee ($5.3MM) and Ruben Tejada ($1.88MM) have both settled on 2015 salaries with the Mets (Twitter links). Their respective projections called for salaries of $5.1MM and $1.7MM.
  • The Padres and Andrew Cashner have settled on a one-year, $4.05MM deal to avoid arb, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The figure is a bit south of the talented but oft-injured righty’s $4.3MM projection.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (on Twitter) that Kevin Jepsen and the Rays have settled on a one-year, $3.025MM pact to avoid arbitration. That figure is a ways north of his $2.6MM projection.
  • Heyman tweets that Michael Saunders and the Blue Jays have avoided arb with a $2.875MM, one-year deal. Saunders was acquired from the Mariners in a swap for J.A. Happ this season and will serve as Toronto’s everyday left fielder. He had projected to earn $2.9MM.
  • Heyman also tweets that Juan Nicasio and the Dodgers have avoided arb with a one-year, $2.3MM deal. Nicasio was picked up from the Rockies after being designated for assignment earlier this offseason. That’s just a bit less than his $2.4MM projection.
  • Justin Ruggiano and the Mariners are in agreement on a one-year, $2.505MM deal to avoid arbitration, tweets Heyman. That figure represents just a $5K difference from his $2.5MM projection. Ruggiano should pair with Seth Smith to form a very solid platoon in right field for the Mariners.
  • Heyman adds that Antonio Bastardo has avoided arb and will earn $3.1MM in 2015. The Pirates acquired Bastardo from the Phillies this offseason, and he had been projected to earn $2.8MM in his final year of team control.
  • Agent Tom O’Connell tweets that the Padres and Dale Thayer have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.375MM contract. The 34-year-old Thayer has been an excellent find for the Padres after signing a minor league deal prior to the 2012 season. In three years with San Diego, the Mets and Rays farmhand has notched a 3.02 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He’s also picked up eight saves along the way, filling in at various points when Huston Street was injured or unavailable.
  • The Rangers announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Ross Detwiler, who was acquired this offseason in a trade with the Nationals. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that Detwiler will earn $3.45MM — a bit north of his $3MM projection. Detwiler has had success as a starter and reliever in his big league career. He shifted back to the bullpen in 2014 but should compete for a rotation spot in 2015 with his new team.
  • Zack Cozart and the Reds have avoided arb by settling on a one-year, $2.35MM pact, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Cozart, who was projected to earn $2.3MM, is one of the game’s best defensive shortstops but batted a meek .221/.268/.300 in 2014. He’s controllable through the 2016 season.
  • Twins lefty Tommy Milone has agreed to a $2.775MM salary for the 2015 season, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Acquired for Sam Fuld at the trade deadline, Milone struggled in 2014, posting a 7.06 ERA in five starts for the Twins, but a 3.91 career ERA at the time of the trade suggests that he can deliver improved results in 2015. Milone was projected to earn $2.8MM in 2015.
  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports (via Twitter) that the Cubs and Welington Castillo have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $2.1MM contract, matching Swartz’s projection exactly. The 27-year-old Castillo has batted .255/.323/.393 in 845 plate appearances as the Cubs’ primary catcher over the past two seasons, though he figures to have a reduced role in 2015 following the acquisition of Miguel Montero. As such, his name has frequently surfaced in trade rumors this offseason.
  • The Pirates and catcher Chris Stewart have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM to avoid arb, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The defensively gifted backstop hit .294/.362/.331 in 154 plate appearances with the Pirates last year and may see more time at the plate now that he’ll be splitting catching duties with Francisco Cervelli rather than Russell Martin. He falls just shy of his $1.3MM projection.
  • Marlins right-hander Aaron Crow has avoided arb by agreeing to a $1.975MM salary that is just $25K shy of his $2MM projection, tweets Heyman. Crow posted a career-worst 4.12 ERA with a career-low 5.2 K/9 in 59 frames for the Royals last season, but Miami clearly sees him as a rebound candidate, given the fact that they sent lefty Brian Flynn to the Royals in December to acquire Crow’s final two years of arbitration eligibility.
  • MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets that the Cubs have avoided arb with Chris Coghlan by agreeing to a one-year, $2.505MM deal. The 2009 NL Rookie of the Year enjoyed a resurgent season in his first year with Chicago, hitting a healthy .283/.352/.452 with nine homers in 432 plate appearances. He figures to platoon with offseason signee Chris Denorfia in left field. Coghlan significantly overshot his $1.4MM projection.
  • Yusmeiro Petit and the Giants have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $2.1MM deal, tweets Heyman. The 30-year-old Petit had a brilliant season in 2014, setting a new Major League record for consecutive batters retired (46) and working to a 3.69 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 117 innings between the bullpen and the rotation. Metrics like FIP (2.78) and SIERA (2.84) feel he pitched much better than his ERA would indicate. Petit did well, topping his $1.6MM projection.
  • The Rays and Desmond Jennings have avoided arb by agreeing to a $3.1MM salary for 2015, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The 28-year-old had somewhat of a down season at the dish in 2014, batting .244/.319/.378 with 10 homers and 15 steals, and a knee injury late in the season limited him to 123 games. Jennings’ contract falls in line with his $3.2MM projection. He will receive an additional $25K for reaching 550 PA, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
  • The D-Backs and Jeremy Hellickson have avoided arb by settling on a one-year, $4.275MM pact, tweets Heyman. Hellickson, acquired this offseason from the Rays, posted a 4.52 ERA in 63 2/3 innings with 7.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in an injury-shortened season. The former Rookie of the Year was projected to earn $3.9MM.
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Pirates Avoid Arbitration With Melancon, Harrison, Snider, Watson

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2015 at 4:25pm CDT

4:21pm: Pittsburgh has also settled with outfielder Travis Snider for $2.1MM, as Mike Perchick of WAPT was first to report (Twitter link). That is just $100K short of the MLBTR/Matt Swartz projection.

Pittsburgh has also reached agreement with reliever Tony Watson for $1.75MM, tweets Perchick. That figure falls a quarter-million shy of Watson’s $2MM projection. And Perchick also reports that Sean Rodriguez and the Pirates have avoided arb with a $1.9MM deal for 2015 — $100K shy of his projection.

2:52pm: The Pirates have agreed to a $5.4MM salary with closer Mark Melancon, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Additionally, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that Josh Harrison will receive $2.8MM on the heels of a breakout 2014 campaign.

While Melancon falls shy of his $7.6MM projection, Swartz explained in an Arbitration Breakdown post that Melancon’s unique statistical profile “broke” his projection algorithm in a way similar to Craig Kimbrel last offseason (when Swartz first wrote about “The Kimbrel Rule“). As Swartz explained in that post, he personally considered Melancon to be a Kimbrel-esque exception to his model and expected a salary in the $5.6MM to $6.1MM range.

The 29-year-old Melancon was dominant for a second straight season in 2014, registering a 1.90 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 33 saves and 14 holds in 71 innings. That rare combination of ERA, saves and holds led the projection model to overshoot Melancon’s salary despite the fact that there’s no historical precedent for a raise of that magnitude for a relief pitcher (hence Swartz’s followup post and personalized expectations for Melancon).

As for Harrison, the 27-year-old broke out with a surprisingly excellent season that landed him ninth in NL MVP voting. Harrison batted .315/.347/.490 with 13 homers and 18 stolen bases, playing strong defense all over the diamond — second, short, third, corner outfield — before settling in at third base and displacing incumbent Pedro Alvarez. Harrison figures to man the hot corner on an everyday basis in 2015. He topped his $2.2MM projection by a hefty $600K.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Josh Harrison Mark Melancon Sean Rodriguez Tony Watson Travis Snider

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Pirates Sign Jung-ho Kang

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2015 at 10:40am CDT

10:40am: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter) that Kang’s deal actually guarantees him $11MM. MLB.com’s Tom Singer tweets that the option is valued at $5.5MM and contains a $1MM buyout.

JAN. 16, 9:58am: The Pirates have officially announced the signing of Kang to a four-year contract with a club option for a fifth season.

JAN. 12: The Pirates and Korean infielder Jung-ho Kang have agreed to terms on a four-year deal with a fifth-year option, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio (Twitter links). Kang’s contract, which is still pending a physical, will guarantee him about $16MM, according to Bowden. Kang is represented by Octagon’s Alan Nero.

Kang’s former club, the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization, announced recently that the 2014 KBO MVP was flying to Pittsburgh to take a physical this week, and Nero himself told reporters last week that he expected an agreement to be reached with the club this week. Kang had reportedly been seeking about $5MM per year on a four-year deal, so it appears that Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington and his staff were able to talk Kang and Nero down a bit.

The 27-year-old Kang (28 in April) is coming off an incredible season with the Heroes in which he batted .356/.459/.739 batting line and 40 home runs in 117 games between the regular season and the playoffs. Though KBO is notoriously hitter-friendly, those numbers still garnered quite a bit of attention from big league clubs, even though some were clearly skeptical, as Pittsburgh’s $5,002,015 winning bid for the negotiation rights was relatively modest.

MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently penned an international profile on Kang, noting that Dan Szymborski, who created the ZiPS projection system, likened the KBO to a hitter-friendly version of Double-A. Within that profile, Charlie notes that an MLB international scouting director to whom MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke opined that Kang possessed no plus tools, merely raw power that wouldn’t translate to games in the Majors.

On the other side of the coin, however, some scouts do think that Kang can be a regular in the Majors. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Kang 15th among free agents this offseason, noting that he’d start Kang at shortstop and give him every opportunity to prove he belongs. Likewise, former MLB and KBO pitcher Ryan Sadowski, now with Global Sporting Integration, said that he feels Kang can absolutely be a regular player and hit about 20 homers per season at the big league level when he spoke with Jeff Todd on the MLBTR Podcast.

It’s unclear exactly how Kang will fit into the Pirates’ plans. He could supplant Jordy Mercer as the club’s starting shortstop, but Mercer is coming off a solid enough season that he could make a case to start in spite of Kang’s arrival. Kang has said that his preference is to play third base if he has to move off shortstop, per Jeeho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency (Twitter link), as he’s more familiar with that position. However, Josh Harrison appears locked in at third coming off a brilliant season in which he was one of the National League’s most valuable players. Kang could bounce around the diamond in a role similar to the one that Harrison filled for much of 2014 and settle into a permanent spot in the event of an injury to one of Pittsburgh’s infielders or regression from Mercer or Harrison.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Jung-ho Kang

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Pirates Notes: Carroll, Liz, Alvarez, Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2015 at 3:35pm CDT

The Pirates have reportedly agreed to terms with Korean infielder Jung-ho Kang on a four-year deal that is worth about $16MM and contains a fifth-year option, but that’s not the only chatter coming out of Pittsburgh today. Here’s the latest on the Buccos…

  • Former big league infielder Jamey Carroll has joined the Pirates’ front office and will serve as a special assistant to the baseball operations staff, the team announced earlier today. Carroll, 40, last appeared with the Twins and Royals in 2013. A lifetime .272/.349/.338 hitter in parts of 12 big league seasons, he joins former Pirate Kevin Young as an offseason addition to the baseball operations department. “He’s an outstanding person and there’s a lot of good things that Jamey Carroll, much like Kevin Young, is going to add to this organization,” GM Neal Huntington told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Specifically, Huntington mentioned the “ability to relate to players and mentor players as a guy who was just there, who just did that.” Brink notes that adding recent big leaguers to the baseball ops department was a goal for the Pirates this winter.
  • Also from that piece, Brink spoke with Huntington and right-hander Radhames Liz about the righty’s contract with the Bucs, and the reason for the delay in finalizing the deal. Reports at the time of the announcement — which came nearly a month after word of the agreement broke — indicated that there were issues with Liz’s physical. However, both Liz and Huntington denied those claims.
  • Both Young and Carroll spoke with Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review about their new roles with the team (video link). Young says he specifically looks forward to working with Pedro Alvarez in the transition from third base to first base — a move that he himself made during his playing days. Carroll notes that he’ll be working a great deal with the club’s infielders but is open to helping in various capacities and learning about other elements of baseball operations.
  • The Pirates opened their voluntary mini-camp today, and Alvarez was not in attendance. While many fans seem to be upset about the notion of Alvarez passing up a chance to work out with the team and improve on his transition to first base, Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle don’t seem too bothered by the decision. Hurdle told MLB.com’s Tom Singer (Twitter link), “I don’t read things into people being there or not. It’s voluntary.” Meanwhile, Huntington told Brink: “Pedro had the complete option to come in and not come in and we expect him to be ready to go the first day of spring training and get after it with Nick [Leyva] but also with Kevin [Young].” Names such as Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Francisco Liriano, Josh Harrison and Gregory Polanco (among others) were also absent from the workouts.
  • One last note from Brink, who tweets that the Pirates will again employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration this winter. In other words, the team will not negotiate arb deals beyond the date on which figures are exchanged — that being this coming Friday. Any unresolved cases at the time of the exchange deadline will be settled in a hearing. Pittsburgh has 12 players eligible for arbitration, so it should be a busy week for them as they look to avoid arb hearings with that group. For those interested, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took a longer look at “file and trial” clubs in the 2013 offseason.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Jamey Carroll Radhames Liz

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Pirates Nearing Four-Year Deal With Jung-ho Kang

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2015 at 1:10am CDT

MONDAY: The Nexen Heroes, Kang’s KBO team, have announced (link in Korean, but Yonhap News Agency has the details in English) that Kang will travel to Pittsburgh on Wednesday and will take a physical later in the week. That suggests that Kang and the Pirates are, in fact, close to a deal.

FRIDAY 2:10pm: Nero tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he expects a deal between the two sides to be completed next week (Twitter link).

1:31pm: The Pirates and Korean infielder Jung-ho Kang are close to an agreement on a four-year deal, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Pittsburgh won the bidding for Korea’s top player last month with a $5,002,015 posting fee. Kang’s agent, Alan Nero of Octagon, recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink that he was confident the two sides would work out a deal. Terms of the deal aren’t yet clear, although it’s known that Kang was seeking about $5MM annually.

Kang, who turns 28 in April, is coming off an astounding season in the Korea Baseball Organization. Though the league is notoriously hitter-friendly, it’s tough not to marvel a bit at the .356/.459/.739 batting line and 40 home runs that Kang posted in 117 games (501 plate appearances) between the regular season and postseason.

Despite those gaudy numbers, however, some scouts simply don’t think that Kang’s skills will translate to the Major Leagues. MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently penned an international profile on Kang, noting that Dan Szymborski, who created the ZiPS projection system, likened the KBO to a hitter-friendly version of Double-A. Within that profile, Charlie notes that an MLB international scouting director to whom MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke opined that Kang possessed no plus tools, merely raw power that wouldn’t translate to games in the Majors.

On the other side of the coin, however, some scouts do think that Kang can be a regular in the Majors. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Kang 15th among free agents this offseason, noting that he’d start Kang at shortstop and give him every opportunity to prove he belongs. Likewise, former MLB and KBO pitcher Ryan Sadowski, now with Global Sporting Integration, said that he feels Kang can absolutely be a regular player and hit about 20 homers per season at the big league level when he spoke with Jeff Todd on the MLBTR Podcast.

Heyman notes that it’s not clear at this time whether Kang would supplant Jordy Mercer at shortstop or if he would simply bounce around the field at a variety of positions. At the time the Pirates won the bidding, I noted that it wouldn’t be a shock to see Kang fill in a role similar to the one that Josh Harrison occupied for much of the 2014 season before unseating Pedro Alvarez as the everyday third baseman. With Harrison locked in at third and Alvarez likely seeing the bulk of playing time at first base, Kang could start several times a week by spelling regulars at second, short, third and in the corner outfield. It’ll be interesting to see if his power does indeed translate to the Majors, as his new home, PNC Park, is one of the toughest parks in all of baseball on right-handed power.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Jung-ho Kang

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