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Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

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The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

Pirates Place Jose Hernandez On 15-Day IL, Select Ryan Borucki

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The Pirates placed left-hander Jose Hernandez on the 15-day injured list due to a right calf strain.  Taking Hernandez’s place in the bullpen is veteran Ryan Borucki, whose contract was selected from Triple-A Indianapolis.  No further transaction was necessary to create room for Borucki, since the Pirates already had only 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Hernandez was the third pick in last December’s Rule 5 draft, with Pittsburgh selecting the southpaw out of the Dodgers’ farm system.  The 25-year-old hadn’t yet pitched in Triple-A before jumping right to the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, but Hernandez has looked very sharp in his rookie season.  Over 27 1/3 innings out of the Bucs’ bullpen, Hernandez has a 2.63 ERA, an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate, and a borderline elite 5.5% walk rate.  Batters haven’t made much hard contact against Hernandez, and his slider has quickly become a devastating weapon.

R5 draft picks must remain on a team’s big league roster for the entire season or else be offered back to their original club, and while a Rule 5 player can be on the IL, they have to clock at least 90 days on the active roster.  Hernandez isn’t quite at 90 days yet, but he’ll easily clear that threshold assuming his calf injury isn’t serious.  Beyond Hernandez’s R5 status is the bigger issue of how his absence will further impact an injury-riddled Pirates bullpen — Hernandez, Colin Holderman, and Rob Zastryzny on the 15-day IL, while Jarlin Garcia (who has yet to pitch at all this season) and Wil Crowe are on the 60-day IL.

Borucki signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in May, after he elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate.  Chicago inked the lefty to a minor league deal during the offseason, and designated him for assignment just a few days after selecting his contract to the 26-man roster (without Borucki ever appearing in a game).

Borucki now looks primed to make his first official appearance of the 2023 campaign, which will make it six MLB seasons for the left-hander.  Borucki has a 4.45 ERA over 170 career innings with the Blue Jays and Mariners, working exclusively as a reliever since 2020.  There has been a lot of inconsistency in Borucki’s work over the years, as he has very prone to allowing home runs and has occasionally struggled with control.

Pirates Select Carmen Mlodzinski

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The Pirates announced they’ve selected right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski onto the major league roster. Lefty reliever Rob Zastryzny is headed to the 15-day injured list with forearm inflammation. The Bucs already had two vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no further move was necessary.

Mlodzinski, 24, gets to the big leagues for the first time. A high-profile prospect at the University of South Carolina, he went 31st overall in the 2020 draft. Mlodzinski entered pro ball as a starting pitching prospect and remained in the rotation up through Double-A. He’s moved full-time to relief this season, his first extended run with Triple-A Indianapolis.

The 6’2″ hurler has impressed in his new bullpen role. Over 25 2/3 innings across 19 outings, he has a 3.16 ERA. He’s striking out 27.2% of opponents against a slightly high but tolerable 9.6% walk percentage. Baseball America recently ranked him the #20 talent in a strong Pittsburgh farm system, crediting him with a well-rounded three-pitch arsenal.

Mlodzinski would’ve been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40-man roster next offseason. He broke through a little sooner than roster mechanizations required with his solid few months in Triple-A. He’ll take the bullpen spot vacated by Zastryzny, who has made 18 appearances with a 5.29 ERA on the year.

Central Notes: Contreras, Naughton, Buxton

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The Pirates recently moved right-hander Roansy Contreras to the bullpen, but he’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of his teammate Mitch Keller and return to the rotation stronger than ever. “I want to find a point where I feel comfortable again,” Contreras said, with major league coach Stephen Morales translating to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I’m going to do my best out of the bullpen, but I feel like I belong in the starting rotation. I’m going to do my best to get back to it.”

Keller was a second-round pick and top 100 prospect but struggled in his first few seasons in the majors, having a 6.02 ERA by the end of 2021. Last year, he had a 6.61 ERA in the middle of May when he was moved to the bullpen. He made just a couple of relief appearances before being put back in the rotation and eventually posted a 3.22 ERA as a starter the rest of the way. He now has a 3.41 ERA for the Bucs here in 2023.

Contreras was also a top 100 guy on his way up through the minors and seemed to solidify himself last year when he posted a 3.79 ERA over 95 innings. However, he’s taken a step back here in 2023 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 starts and a couple of relief appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, considering his .328 batting average on balls in play and 61.3% strand rate, but his 17.2% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate are both worse than last year’s marks of 21.1% and 9.6%.

The Pirates are barely above .500 at 34-32 but that’s enough for first place in the National League Central at the moment. Their current rotation consists of Keller, Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo and the recently-recalled Osvaldo Bido. If Contreras could turn things around, it would be a huge help for their postseason push, especially with other options like Vince Velasquez, Mike Burrows and JT Brubaker out for the year. There would also be long-term benefits to the Bucs, since Contreras isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Some other notes from the Central divisions…

  • Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton has been on the injured list for most of the season, making just four appearances in early April before a left forearm strain put him on the shelf. He recently began a rehab assignment but was still experiencing pain. Now he’s traveling to Texas to get a second opinion and it seems season-ending surgery is on the table, per John Denton of MLB.com. Denton relays that Tommy John surgery could still be avoided but it’s nonetheless an ominous development for Naughton and the Cards that it’s being considered, particularly at this time of year. Given the typical recovery period of 14 to 18 months, Tommy John surgery would not only wipe out the rest of 2023 for Naughton but also put his 2024 in jeopardy. In 59 2/3 career innings, he has a 4.98 ERA.
  • The Twins reinstated Byron Buxton from the injured list today, optioning outfielder Trevor Larnach in a corresponding move. Buxton has long been one of the most talented athletes in the sport but has struggled to stay healthy. He managed to play 140 games in 2017 but hasn’t topped 92 contests in any subsequent season. The Twins have kept him exclusively in the designated hitter slot this year in an attempt to reduce the chance of injury. That plan hit a snag a couple weeks ago when Buxton took a pitch from Tanner Bibee in the ribs. He landed on the IL due to a contusion but is now back after a brief absence. He’s hitting .220/.325/.445 so far this year for a 114 wRC+, stealing six bases in 50 games.

Pirates Select Osvaldo Bido

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TODAY: The Pirates officially announced the move, with Canaan Smith-Njigba optioned to Triple-A as the corresponding move.

JUNE 13: The Pirates are calling up right-hander Osvaldo Bido to start tomorrow’s game against the Cubs, tweets Justice delos Santos of MLB.com. Pittsburgh will formally select his contract before the game. They have a trio of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Bido, 27, gets a big league call for the first time. The 6’3″ hurler entered the professional ranks in 2017, signing out of the Dominican Republic at age 21. That’s far older than the typical international amateur and has contributed to a lack of prospect attention, but Bido has pitched his way up over six-plus seasons.

He’s spent the past two years with Triple-A Indianapolis. Bido posted a 4.53 ERA over 111 1/3 innings last season. He carries a 4.55 mark across 55 1/3 frames this year, starting 10 of 12 outings. He has a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage but has walked a little under 11% of opponents. He had fairly similar strikeout and walk marks in 2022.

The Bucs kicked off a stretch of 13 consecutive game days with tonight’s loss to the Cubs. They’ll need a five-man rotation for the next couple weeks, which could give Bido a chance to make multiple appearances. General manager Ben Cherington said over the weekend that righty Roansy Contreras was moving to relief (relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Paired with season-ending surgery for Vince Velasquez, the Pirates are looking for some stability alongside Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo.

Pirates Outright Chase De Jong

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Pirates righty Chase De Jong went unclaimed on outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. De Jong has been previously outrighted in his career, so he has the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency.

De Jong, 29, was outstanding in Pittsburgh last season but has been unable to replicate his success in 2023. The journeyman right-hander delivered 71 2/3 frames of 2.64 ERA ball a year ago but has thus far been rocked for 17 earned runs in just 11 1/3 innings. De Jong’s 20.1% strikeout rate in 2022 was already below average, but that number has plummeted to 11.7% in this year’s smaller sample. He’s missed fewer bats while continuing to struggle with free passes, and opponents in 2023 have already tagged him for six home runs in just 60 plate appearances.

This is De Jong’s second DFA of the season in Pittsburgh. He had the right to reject an outright assignment last time around as well but opted to accept an assignment to Indianapolis after clearing waivers. He’s pitched 10 1/3 frames in Indy, recording a much sharper 1.74 ERA with a 22.9% strikeout that’s more than double his big league rate but also an alarming 16.9% walk rate. De Jong has a 5.42 ERA in 181 Major League innings and a similar 5.51 ERA in 217 1/3 Triple-A frames. That career ERA in Triple-A is skewed by some earlier struggles; he has a 2.70 mark there in 43 1/3 innings across the past three seasons.

Vince Velasquez Undergoes Elbow Surgery; Expected To Miss Roughly A Year

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6:36pm: Pittsburgh director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk indicated Velasquez was likely to miss 11-12 months, writes Justice delos Santos of MLB.com. He won’t been throwing until around November. Obviously, that’ll cut into the righty’s availability for the first half of the 2024 campaign.

3:55pm: Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez has undergone season-ending elbow surgery, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Velasquez, 31, was signed by the Pirates this winter to a one-year, $3.15MM deal. The club was likely hoping that he could provide a stable source of veteran innings, alongside fellow offseason signee Rich Hill, as they also gave auditions to younger pitchers like Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo and Luis Ortiz.

The plan worked fairly well for a while, as Velasquez got out to a strong start. He made eight starts for the Bucs with a 3.86 ERA, striking out 22.8% of batters faced against an 8.6% walk rate. He was placed on the injured list in early May due to elbow inflammation and came back later that month. However, he departed his return start after just two innings due to renewed discomfort in that elbow.

It was reported last week that Velasquez would eventually be moved to the 60-day injured list, which seemed to point to a significant absence. That has now come to fruition with today’s news that he required some sort of serious surgery. It’s not clear exactly what sort of surgery took place, but it will apparently end his 2023 and perhaps impact his 2024 as well if it were something as serious as Tommy John surgery, though further details will undoubtedly come out in time.

It’s surely a frustrating development for both the player and the team. Velasquez has been fairly inconsistent in his career, with his ERA oscillating between a low of 4.12 in 2016 and a high of 6.30 in 2021. Though it was a fairly small sample, his 2023 was on pace to potentially be his strongest yet, though it now appears to be done. He will be a free agent this winter, though the level of interest he receives will be affected by the severity of the surgery and his health going forward.

For the Bucs, this will be a blow to their rotation depth as they are hovering in the playoff race for the first time in years after a lengthy rebuild. They are currently 32-29 and holding the last Wild Card spot in the National League. If they manage to stay afloat in that race, the diminished depth will present them with a challenge. Velasquez also would have been a logical trade candidate if they fell back in the race given his impending free agency, though that won’t even be a call the front office has to make anymore.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #5: Pirates Get A Shortstop With Elite Tools For Tony Watson

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7. and No. 6. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The Pirates endured a long postseason drought that spanned the changing of the millenium. They made the postseason in three straight years from 1990 to 1992 but then didn’t return for over 20 years. They had another three-year run beginning in 2013, qualifying for the Wild Card game that year as well as the next two. They couldn’t keep it going in 2016, dropping to 78-83 and missing the postseason.

The club had many star players in that time, particularly Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and others, but one fixture of those Pittsburgh clubs was left-handed reliever Tony Watson. Drafted by the Bucs in 2007, he made it to the majors in 2011. He tossed 41 innings in his debut season with a 3.95 ERA, securing 10 holds in the process.

He would get even better in the seasons to come, his peak coinciding with those postseason years for the Pirates. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA in 77 1/3 innings in 2014, striking out 26.6% of batters faced while walking 4.9% and getting grounders on 47.7% of balls in play. He only notched a couple of saves as Mark Melancon was in the closer’s role, but Watson tallied 34 holds.

Watson’s effectiveness would fade a bit in the subsequent seasons, hardly a surprise given that his excellent 2014 campaign would be almost impossible to maintain. His ERA climbed to 1.91 in 2015 and then 3.06 in 2016. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.2% and 21.3% in those seasons. Nonetheless, he was still a very effective relief pitcher.

The Pirates weren’t able to bounce back from their down season in 2016. At the end of July 2017, they were sporting a record of 51-54, fourth place in the National League Central and 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. Watson was pitching fine that year, with a 3.66 ERA at the time. But since he was just a few months away from free agency and the club was struggling, it made sense to move on.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until he was traded to the Dodgers on July 31, 2017. He made 24 appearances for his new club with a 2.70 ERA as they finished 104-58, the best record in the majors. He made 11 more appearances in the postseason with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers eventually lost the World Series in what will go down as a major “what if” since it was the now-infamous sign-stealing Astros club that emerged victorious in seven games.

In exchange for Watson, the Pirates got a couple of younger players from the Dodgers. One of them was 21-year-old right-hander Angel German. He wasn’t considered a top prospect but had a 1.91 ERA in Single-A that year. Unfortunately, he bumped that to a 6.92 ERA in High-A in 2018 and then a 4.33 in Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays going into 2020, but was released in May of 2020 amid the pandemic shutdown. He hasn’t pitched in an official capacity since.

The other player in the deal was 18-year-old infielder Oneil Cruz. He had signed with the Dodgers in July of 2015 as a 16-year-old international amateur, securing a bonus of $950K. He played in the Dominican Summer League in 2016, hitting .294/.367/.444 in 211 plate appearances and stealing 11 bases.

Going into 2017, Baseball America ranked him the #27 prospect in the Dodgers system and their report highlighted something that has been a subject of interest in the years since: his size. “Cruz is a great example of the challenges unique to international scouting,” the report states. “As a 15-year-old working out for clubs in the Dominican Republic, Cruz was a 6-foot-1 shortstop. By the time he signed with the Dodgers for $950,000 as a 16-year-old, Cruz had shot up to 6-foot-4. He grew taller after signing, and by the time the 2016 Dominican Summer League season began, he was pushing 6-foot-6.”

Cruz actually was slumping in the first half of 2017, as he was hitting just .240/.293/.342 in 89 Single-A games. He had eight home runs and eight stolen bases but was striking out at a 29.3% clip. Nonetheless, the Pirates decided to take a gamble on him and brought him aboard in the Watson deal.

Six years later, it certainly seems like it was a worthwhile gamble. Cruz has risen through the ranks over the years, becoming a top 100 prospect thanks to his elite tools. He got a very brief two-game cup of coffee in the majors at the end of 2021 but then was sent back to the minors at the start of 2022. He was recalled in June and showed both the reasons for his prospect hype but also the concerning parts of his game.

Cruz has arguably the best raw athletic traits of any player in the league. His 122.4 mph maximum exit velocity was tops in the majors last year. His sprint speed was in the 98th percentile. His arm strength was in the 97th percentile. In short, he can hit for power, run and throw among the best in the world.

But one of the major questions around Cruz as a prospect was whether his height, now 6’7″, would prevent him from playing shortstop. No one that size had ever successfully played the position before. The other question was whether or not his penchant for strikeouts would become too much of a problem. Neither of those questions were definitively answered last year.

Despite hitting 17 home runs in 87 games, Cruz went down on strikes in 34.9% of his plate appearances. Among players with at least 350 trips to the plate, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor were punched out at a higher rate. On the defensive side of things, the reviews were mixed. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +1, but Ultimate Zone Rating came in at -7.5 and Outs Above Average at -9.

2023 was going to be an important season for Cruz, still just 24, to show the Pirates if he were capable of improving in either of those areas. Unfortunately, after just nine games, he suffered an ankle fracture during an awkward slide in a close play at home plate. The estimated timeline on that injury was four months, meaning he could be back in August if that prediction holds.

It’s still unknown whether Cruz will reach his full potential or not. Despite the injury setback, the Pirates have time to find out, as Cruz isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. He and the club have also discussed an extension that could potentially keep him around even longer. Regardless of how it plays out, the Pirates have a player who arguably has one of the highest ceilings in the sport. If he takes a step forward in terms of defense and plate discipline, his tools will give him the chance to be one of the best players in the league.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Designate Chase De Jong For Assignment

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The Pirates announced that outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis. In a corresponding move, right-hander Chase De Jong was designated for assignment. Their 40-man roster count is now down to 37.

De Jong, 29, has bounced on and off the Pirates’ roster since signing a minor league deal in January of 2021. He had his contract selected that year but spent much of the campaign on the injured list and was outrighted at season’s end. He returned on another minor league deal in 2022 and ended up having a nice season in Pittsburgh. He had his contract selected in April and eventually posted a 2.64 ERA in 71 2/3 innings.

That was enough for him to keep his roster spot through the winter, though there were reasons to suspect it wasn’t fully sustainable. His .222 batting average on balls in play and 86.3% strand rate were both on the fortunate side, leading to a 4.74 FIP and 4.38 SIERA. His luck has swung the other way this year in a small sample, as he has a .308 BABIP and 51.1% strand rate, leading to a 13.50 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. Beyond the luck, his 20.1% strikeout rate from last year is down to just 11.7% so far this year, while he’s also allowed six homers in that short time frame.

The righty was already designated for assignment in May, after which he cleared waivers and was outrighted to Indianapolis. He had the right to elect free agency based on previous career outrights but opted to accept and got his roster spot back a few days ago. He made one appearance since then, allowing six earned runs in two innings on Tuesday. Based on his rough season, it now seems possible that the same sequence of events will play out again, with De Jong being put on waivers and clearing. If that comes to pass, he would once again have the right to elect free agency but might simply accept an outright assignment like he did a few weeks ago.

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