Odds & Ends: Nationals, Lilly, Haren, Marlins, Kotsay
Sunday night linkage..
- Ben Goessling of MASNSports.com wonders if the reason Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo has made players like Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham available is because the team's offense is struggling with them as it is, so he'll try to improve other areas of the team.
- ESPNChicago's Bruce Levine says the Yankees could join the mix for Ted Lilly following Andy Pettitte's injury today. Meanwhile, Yanks' GM Brian Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com that he is "not inclined" to make a move to replace Pettitte yet, saying that he prefers to give internal options a try first. Levine has the Tigers, Twins, Mets, and Dodgers also in the hunt for Lilly.
- Scott Miller of CSBSports.com wonders if this weekend's poor play (three losses to the Padres) makes a Dan Haren trade more likely.
- David Villavicencio of Fox Sports Florida tells us that players like Cody Ross and Ricky Nolasco want to stay with the Marlins, and know they need a strong run to make that a reality.
- Mark Kotsay knows what it's like to be the player who's desired in a trade, but also to be the player who would lose playing time as a result of one, writes MLB.com's Scott Merkin.
- Jose Bautista was honored that Alex Anthopoulos called him to help get Yunel Escobar settled into his new environment, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. Bautista says that he loves Toronto and would like to stay there long-term.
- The Yankees, who have been interested bystanders through most of the process, are now getting more interested in Mexican amateur pitcher Luis Heredia, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, the Pirates and the Blue Jays remain the frontrunners for the 15-year-old, who is sure to get a bonus of more than $2MM.
- Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets that Tampa Bay expressed interest in Yunel Escobar before he was dealt to Toronto. He also tweets that Reid Brignac was part of the talks.
- Hayden Penn, a pitcher for the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate who was reportedly nearing a deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines, is on his way to Japan, according to Indianapolis Indians Triple-A announcer Scott McCauley (via Twitter). McCauley also says that another Indianapolis hurler is "close to a deal".
- The White Sox, who have been linked to Nationals slugger Adam Dunn, have had a scout present for Washington's series against the Marlins, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via Twitter).
- Reliever David Aardsma is a possible fit for the Tigers, tweets Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse.
- R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs attempted to peg Fausto Carmona's trade value.
- Roy Oswalt wants to claim the Astros win record before leaving, writes Bernardo Fallas of the Houston Chronicle.
- Jean-Jacques Taylor of The Dallas Morning News praised the moves made by Rangers GM Jon Daniels.
- Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun senses deja vu all over again as the deadline approaches.
Rizzo Doesn’t Like Offers For Dunn
Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo doesn't like the offers he's received for Adam Dunn, a person close to the team told MLB.com's Bill Ladson and Faran Fagen. As a result, the source doesn't believe the team will trade the first baseman before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. It is unclear exactly which teams have approached Rizzo and made an offer for the lefty power threat.
Dunn has said he is frustrated by not having a contract extension already in place, but as far as we know he hasn't asked for any kind of trade. The Yankees and White Sox are among the teams known to covet him, but there are certainly plenty more out there given the decrease in homeruns and offense in general around the league. Dunn is on pace for 39 bombs this year, which would make this the sixth consecutive year he's hit between 38 and 40.
Dunn May Be Losing Interest In Extension?
FRIDAY, 5:30pm: Dunn denied changing his mind about staying with the Nationals according to The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, though he did acknowledge being frustrated by not having an extension already in place. He said he has no animosity towards the team, but will stay out of any contract talks and let his representatives handle things.
MONDAY, 7:29pm: Adam Dunn is losing interest in signing a long-term deal with the Nationals, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter links found here). The powerful first baseman perceives a lack of urgency from the Nationals, who began preliminary discussions with Dunn and his representatives months ago.
GM Mike Rizzo has made it clear that he would part with Dunn only for an extraordinary package. Olney reports that the Nationals have discussed possible deals involving Dunn, so they are clearly considering trades. As we heard last week, the White Sox are among the interested teams.
Dunn leads the National League with 22 home runs and appears headed for a seventh consecutive season with 38 or more homers. The 30-year-old has a .959 OPS, which would be a career-high. Dunn and Jayson Werth are two of the most productive hitters rumored to be available as the trade deadline nears.
Yankees Covet Dunn, Soria
The Yankees would love to have Adam Dunn and Joakim Soria, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). But the Yankees' interest in the two stars doesn't mean those players will be in pinstripes any time soon. After all, many teams would love to have them both and the Nationals and Royals would demand a lot in any deal.
In fact, Rosenthal reports that the Nationals have an "exorbitant" asking price for Dunn. The 30-year-old, who becomes a free agent after the season, is one of the more appealing first baseman available, along with Prince Fielder. As usual, Dunn is on pace for a 40-homer season (he leads the NL with 22). He makes $12MM this season and profiles as a Type A free agent, so the Nationals could obtain picks for Dunn if they don't trade him.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported earlier in the week that Dunn may be losing interest in an extension with the Nats. At River Ave. Blues, MLBTR's Mike Axisa makes the case that the Yankees should acquire Dunn, even though he's only under contract for 2010.
The Royals would need to be "overwhelmed" to part with Soria, who makes $3MM this season and is under team control through 2014. He has 25 saves already and has posted 11.1 K/9 this season, which makes him one of the more appealing relievers available. The Yankees have had inconsistent performances from righties Joba Chamberlain, Chan Ho Park and David Robertson, which no doubt contributes to their interest in Soria.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Dodgers, Giants, Fielder, Lee
On this date in 2001, Fred McGriff invoked his no-trade clause to block a deal that would have sent him from the last place Devil Rays to the first place Cubs. The Crime Dog was born and raised in Tampa, but he relented and agreed to the deal 11 days later. Tampa Bay received Manny Aybar and Jason Smith in return for McGriff, who was unquestionably the greatest player in franchise history at the time.
Hear are some links with the deadline rapidly approaching…
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness scouts the starting pitcher and relief pitcher market for the Dodgers.
- Bleacher Report says the Giants would be filling one hole and creating another if they trade for Corey Hart.
- Disciples of Uecker feels it is unrealistic to expect the Brewers to retain Prince Fielder long-term.
- 1 Blue Jays Way chimes in on the Yunel Escobar–Alex Gonzalez swap.
- Meanwhile, Beyond the Box Score wonders how much Yunel Escobar's bad attitude cost the Braves.
- Royals Review takes a quick look at the trade history between the Royals and Yankees.
- El Lefty Malo tries to nail down Jonathan Sanchez's trade value.
- Yankeeist looks at some solutions for the Yankees' DH vacancy.
- Gear Up For Twins Baseball has some suggestions to help improve the Twins.
- River Ave. Blues wants to see the Yanks go for the kill and acquire Adam Dunn.
- Sports: A Game of Inches analyzes the Cliff Lee non-trade to the Yanks and his eventual move to the Rangers in a four part series (parts one, two, three, four).
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Dunn, Beltre, Lee, Sabathia
Links for Tuesday, as we wait for David Price to throw the first pitch of the All-Star Game to Hanley Ramirez…
- For the second time this month, Torii Hunter lobbied for the Angels to acquire Adam Dunn (MLB.com's Bill Ladson reporting). Hunter's willingness to weigh in on personnel decisions should come as no surprise, given his desire to be a GM one day.
- Adrian Beltre was close to accepting a multiyear offer from the Athletics in the offseason, but he told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that he felt the Red Sox gave him a better chance to win. Beltre has not had any talks with the Sox about an extension, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford.
- Cliff Lee doesn't know whether proximity to his Arkansas home will impact where he signs, reports ESPN's Richard Durrett.
- MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince responds strongly to C.C. Sabathia's comments made to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Asked about the breakup of the Indians, Sabathia said, "That wasn't our fault. They traded us. That's on them."
- It appears that the Hanshin Tigers will retain Matt Murton for 2011, according to a Sanspo report relayed by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman.
Nats Notes: Trades, Dunn, Willingham
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo addressed the Washington media following their loss to San Francisco this afternoon. Let's take a look at some highlights courtesy of MLB.com's Bill Ladson:
- The team's performance over the next few weeks will not affect what the club does at the Trade Deadline. Rizzo added: "We are trying to win as many ball games as we can in 2010 and do it the right way and build for the future."
- Rizzo went as far as to say that it would take an "extraordinary offer" to pry away Adam Dunn in a trade. However, he would not rule out the possibility of dealing the slugger, nor did he nix the idea of trading Dunn and pursuing him in free agency after the season.
- Despite publicly stating his desire to sign a new deal with the Nats, the club still hasn't approached Josh Willingham about an extension, Ladson tweets.
Odds & Ends: Dunn, Dodgers, Lee, Tigers
Links for Saturday night, after Roy Halladay and Travis Wood traded zeros for nine innings….
- Bill Ladson of MLB.com writes that Mike Rizzo isn't looking to deal Adam Dunn. Rizzo repeated what's becoming a favorite phrase lately, telling Washington broadcaster Bob Carpenter that it'd be "very painful" to move Dunn, both for the Nationals and for the team acquiring him.
- The Dodgers were involved in talks with the Mariners for Cliff Lee, but wouldn't part with Chad Billingsley or James Loney, according to MLB.com's Evan Drellich.
- Jamey Newberg provides his detailed take on the Rangers' acquisition at The Newberg Report.
- In light of the Lee trade, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times takes a look at how some past blockbuster deals between division rivals worked out.
- Jim Leyland reiterates to MLB.com's Jason Beck that the Tigers could use some bullpen help.
- Ricky Nolasco knows that he might be on the trade block this month, writes Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com wonders (via Twitter) if the Yankees' scout in Arizona yesterday had an eye on Nolasco, noting that Joe Girardi managed the right-hander in 2006.
- River Ave. Blues passes along a story from El Universal (Spanish link) in which Ernesto Armenteros reports that the Yankees signed 18-year-old Colombian catcher Alfredo Castellon Jr.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dunn, Oswalt, Haren
In his latest Full Count video at FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal looks at possible next moves for the Angels, Yankees, Mets, and White Sox. Let's check out the highlights….
- The Angels are expected to respond in some form to the Rangers' acquisition of Cliff Lee, with a corner infield bat still their top priority. While Rosenthal agrees that the Halos would like a third baseman who's under team control past this season, he thinks they could look at a rental for first base, since Kendry Morales will be back next spring.
- Besides Adam Dunn, Rosenthal names Jose Bautista, Adam LaRoche, Ty Wigginton, and Jorge Cantu as potential fits for the Angels, suggesting Bautista makes the most sense. Rosenthal also speculates that, if their respective teams made them available, Mark Reynolds and Casey McGehee would intrigue the defending AL West champs.
- Lee was the only starting pitcher the Yankees really coveted, so don't expect them to pursue players like Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren now that they missed out on the left-hander.
- Rosenthal expresses skepticism that Oswalt or Haren will get dealt at all. Houston doesn't appear willing to take on enough of their ace's contract, while the D'Backs would need to be "blown away" to trade Haren.
- The Mets' search for pitching has them looking at Jake Westbrook and a handful of other arms. Rosenthal notes that the team has had interest in Octavio Dotel as a free agent in the past, and that some members of the Mets' organization are "wary" of Ted Lilly.
- The White Sox made a run at Cliff Lee, but never got close to landing him. Although a left-handed bat remains their biggest need, there aren't many on the market who appeal to them besides Dunn, whose price tag is "exorbitant." They might settle for acquiring a right-handed hitter, and could also pursue another starter if Daniel Hudson struggles.
What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates
Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings.
We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).
It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.
Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:
- Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
- David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
- Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking.
- Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
- Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.
And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.
- John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
- Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
- Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
- Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
- Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
- Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
- Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
- Octavio Dotel – Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
- Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.