MLBTR Poll: Andrew McCutchen / Michael Brantley Contracts
As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.
It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”
In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.
It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.
Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.
It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”
Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.
All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)
How Would You Characterize The McCutchen & Brantley Outcomes?
-
Phillies overpaid; Astros got good value 64% (12,393)
-
Astros took more risk; Phillies got the better/more reliable player 20% (3,849)
-
Both contracts are fair -- MLBTR just whiffed on its predictions! 17% (3,240)
Total votes: 19,482
Phillies Sign Andrew McCutchen
THURSDAY: McCutchen will earn $10MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020, and $20MM in 2021, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Phillies, then, were obviously willing to tie up more of their future payroll space on this signing, though it’s hard to gauge just what that portends for the remainder of their offseason.
WEDNESDAY: The Phillies have announced the agreement.
TUESDAY, 6:20pm: McCutchen’s option for 2022 is worth $15MM and comes with a $3MM buyout, Heyman tweets.
1:46pm: The Phillies have a deal in place with free agent outfielder Andrew McCutchen, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter link). The agreement is still pending a physical.
McCutchen will reportedly receive a three-year, $50MM contract that includes an option for a fourth season. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter), who first broke the news that the sides were in serious talks, reported the years, with Jon Heyman of Fancred reporting the guarantee and option year (Twitter links).
This contract lands above MLBTR’s predicted value for McCutchen, but falls right in line with our expectations of a three-year, $45MM pact. We had ranked Cutch just behind fellow open-market vets A.J. Pollock and Michael Brantley, each of whom remains unsigned at this stage.
For the Phillies, this is a stage-setting move that fills one need and creates quite a few new opportunities. The organization previously dealt for Jean Segura, meaning GM Matt Klentak has now slotted in new corner outfield and shortstop pieces — without moving on top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That’s not to say that pursuit of one of those players is out of the question at this point, but the Phils are certainly also now positioned to look elsewhere if they so desire. Certainly, there’s also an argument to be made that these splashes only make it more reasonable for the club to go big on another free agent.
There are innumerable possibilities, still, for the Phils. The team could conceivably deal just about any of its preexisting outfielders. Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr, Dylan Cozens, and Roman Quinn would all hold some degree of appeal elsewhere. Surely some of those players will remain, but the Philadelphia organization will likely seek to rearrange some other pieces to make further moves possible. In addition to several still-youthful position players, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez has evidently been talked about in trade chatter, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).
What’s clear, though, is that McCutchen will step into the Philadelphia lineup on most days in 2019. He certainly represents a quality addition, even if he’s no longer the superstar that he was when he was playing with the cross-state Pirates.
Since wrapping up a forgettable 2016 campaign, McCutchen has turned in consecutive solid seasons with the bat. In 1,332 plate appearances over the past two season, he’s slashing a combined .267/.366/.455 with 48 long balls. McCutchen did lag in the power department in 2018, with a year-over-year isolated slugging drop from .207 to .169, but made up for it with a 13.9% walk rate that’s just shy of his career peak.
McCutchen won’t be an option in center for the Phils, though his long experience there could come in handy at times. After a solid debut season in right field last year, he’ll be an upgrade defensively for a club that received atrocious glovework in the outfield last year from Rhys Hoskins, who is moving back to first base. If there’s one area that McCutchen slid most notably, though, it was in the baserunning department. Once a standout, he graded at a putrid -5.0 BsR in 2018. Of course, he also still swiped 14 bags, so perhaps that broader performance is more a blip than an indicator of a significant loss of athleticism.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Rumors: Sanchez, Jones, McCutchen, Lagares
Rumors about a discussed three-team trade between the Mets, Marlins, and Yankees set the baseball world abuzz on Monday, though most recent reports have cast those talks are much more speculative in nature. If Mets fans were stunned at the idea of Noah Syndergaard potentially going to the Yankees as part of those three-team rumors, how would Yankees fans feel about Gary Sanchez going to Citi Field? The Athletic’s Marc Carig (Twitter link) reports that one of the many permutations of the Mets/Yankees talks saw Sanchez becoming the Mets’ new catcher. It isn’t known if the Marlins were involved in this scenario, or if it would’ve resulted in J.T. Realmuto or Syndergaard going to the Yankees, but whispers continue to swirl that the Yankees could be looking for a change at catcher, no matter how firmly GM Brian Cashman has continued to stand by Sanchez.
Even if it involves a rare trade with a crosstown rival, it seems clear that new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen is certainly looking at every possibility to upgrade his roster. Some more Mets-related rumblings…
- Adam Jones and his representatives have opened a line of communication with the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). (Puma initially reported the sides had met face to face, but later retracted that aspect of the discussions.) With Yoenis Cespedes a health-related question mark for 2019, the Mets are looking at Jones and other right-handed hitting outfielders. Jones is hitting the open market for the first time in his career after spending the last 11 seasons with the Orioles.
- Andrew McCutchen was another name on the Mets’ list, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though at a much lower price tag than the $50MM deal McCutchen received from the Phillies.
- The Mets already have a right-handed hitting outfield option in the form of Juan Lagares, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter) hears that the Mets have been trying to find a trade partner for Lagares. 2018 was a lost year for the defensive specialist, as a torn plantar plate in his left big toe resulted in season-ending surgery after just 30 games. Given the injury and the $9.5MM owed to Lagares in salary next season, the outfielder will be a tough sell in trade talks, unless New York eats some money or deals him for another bad-fit type of contract.
Latest On Corner Outfield Market
The focus of the corner outfield market remains on Bryce Harper, of course, but there are a few other significant players available. Regarding Harper, there’s not much in the way of news, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at how he could conceivably end up falling to the Dodgers, who are said to be pursuing high-end assets. Here, though, we’ll focus in on the next-best assets on the market.
The Phillies are “showing significant interest” in Andrew McCutchen, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, representing a new connection for the former superstar. Cutch is nowhere near the player he once was, but that easy characterization can tend to obscure how good he still is.
Meanwhile, the Astros are said to be in on another top corner piece. Per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, via Twitter, the Houston organization has interest in Michael Brantley. That’s a bit of a surprising match, if only because the team is still paying top dollar to another veteran lefty corner outfielder in Josh Reddick, but perhaps Brantley could also spend some time at first base to increase his versatility.
Earlier in the offseason, both McCutchen and Brantley were connected to the ‘Stros — though mostly as part of a group of significant free agents. The Houston plans have remained hard to figure to this point, with the team’s intentions regarding top prospect Kyle Tucker potentially weighing in their assessment of new acquisition targets.
MLBTR predicted that both McCutchen and Brantley would secure three-year, $45MM pacts. There’s no real clarity as of yet as to whether the market will support those or greater values.
Olney’s Latest: Goldy, Yanks, Astros, Pollock, Brantley, Cutch, Mariners
It’s unclear whether the Diamondbacks will trade their franchise player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) hears from rival evaluators that they are “intent” on dealing the 31-year-old. While Goldschmidt has consistently been one of the majors’ best players during his career, it’s unlikely the Diamondbacks would receive a significant haul in exchange for his final year of team control, observes Olney, who notes that most contenders aren’t seeking a first baseman. But St. Louis and Houston continue to show a good amount of interest in Goldschmidt, per Olney, which jibes with a previous report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Olney adds that rival clubs believe the Astros have seemingly tried to move young right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, their eighth-ranked prospect at MLB.com, in trade talks. Similarly, the Yankees were “pushing” left-handed pitching prospect Justus Sheffield in Goldschmidt discussions, Olney reports. Sheffield’s no longer in the picture for New York, though, as it traded him to Seattle this week in a deal for lefty James Paxton.
- Back to Houston, which has been shopping near the top of the market for free-agent outfielders, according to Olney, who lists A.J. Pollock, Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley among their targets. Unless the Astros deem soon-to-be 22-year-old prospect Kyle Tucker ready for a full-time role, they have an opening in the outfield, where George Springer and Josh Reddick are their only obvious starters. Signing Pollock, a center fielder, would enable them to move Springer back to a corner after he spent the majority of 2017-18 in center. Pollock’s likely to rake in the biggest payday of the trio, though; further, given that Pollock comes with a qualifying offer attached, adding him would also cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick in 2019 and $500K in international pool space.
- The Mariners have been the most active team on the trade market this offseason, having already dealt Paxton and catcher Mike Zunino. With aggressive general manager Jerry Dipoto at the helm and the M’s desire to take a step back in 2019, more trades involving their veterans are likely on the way. However, it continues to look as though the Mariners will keep their two top players, outfielder Mitch Haniger and closer Edwin Diaz. It would take overwhelming offers for the Mariners to seriously consider moving either Haniger or Diaz, Olney tweets. Both stars are controllable for the next four years, including another pre-arbitration season apiece.
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents. Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:
11. Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)
12. Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)
13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)
14. Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)
15. Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)
16. Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)
17. Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)
18. Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)
19. David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)
20. Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)
Free Agency Notes: Harper, McCutchen, Yanks, D. Holland, Giants
Agent Scott Boras told Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York earlier this week that Nationals outfielder and pending free agent Bryce Harper has already picked his team for 2019, which drew plenty of attention on social media Sunday. “We know who the team is. It’s already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally,” Boras said (video via the YES Network). However, if you’re of the belief Boras was being facetious, you’re correct. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter links) that Boras was indeed joking. Anything else would’ve been a major surprise, as the 26-year-old Harper won’t even be allowed to discuss money with anyone but the Nationals until five days after the end of the World Series. Whether Harper ultimately re-signs with the Nats or heads elsewhere during the coming months, there’s no doubt he’ll land one of the richest contracts in baseball history.
Here’s more on a couple other players who are on the brink of reaching the open market:
- Outfielder Andrew McCutchen was highly productive for the Yankees after they acquired him from San Francisco in August, but it doesn’t appear he’ll return to the Bronx next season. The Yankees aren’t expected to re-sign McCutchen, per George A. King III of the New York Post. Even without McCutchen, New York would still have several other high-profile outfielders in Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Bombers could also pursue Harper, and they’ll have to make a decision on Brett Gardner‘s $12.5MM club option.
- With left-hander Derek Holland hoping to return to the Giants in 2019, it “could make a lot of sense” for the club to offer him a two-year contract, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California writes. Holland was unable to secure a guaranteed contract last winter, when the Giants inked him to a minors deal in a move that worked out beautifully for the team. The 32-year-old Holland ended up pitching to a 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP across a San Francisco-leading 171 1/3 innings, likely setting himself up for a better payday than the $2MM he raked in this season.
Latest On Futures Of Andrew McCutchen, Brett Gardner
In Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees already have a high-end starting outfield under control for 2019. But they’ll have more decisions to make in that area this offseason, specifically with veterans Andrew McCutchen and Brett Gardner. The club would “like to” retain McCutchen, a pending free agent, if his asking price is “reasonable,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Meanwhile, the Yankees are “likely” to decline Gardner’s $12.5MM club option in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to Cafardo.
Having been acquired from the Giants on Aug. 31, McCutchen is just over three weeks into his tenure in the Bronx. The sample size is clearly limited, then, though the well-respected 31-year-old has delivered during his short Yankees career. Across 80 plate appearances with the Bombers, McCutchen has slashed .253/.425/.492 with four home runs and more walks (17) than strikeouts (15). Between San Francisco and New York, the right-handed McCutchen has batted .253/.366/.423 with 19 HRs in 648 trips to the plate, giving him a quality wRC+ of 119. The longtime Pirate has been an above-average offensive contributor every year of his career, which began in 2009, by wRC+.
Defensively, while McCutchen took significant steps backward as a center fielder from 2016-17, he has drawn somewhat better reviews in the corner this year. McCutchen has seen most of his action as a right fielder in 2018 and accounted for two Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-0.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1,271 2/3 innings, though Statcast’s Outs Above Average (minus-10) ranks him among the game’s worst fielders in the grass. Still, thanks in large part to his offensive prowess, McCutchen has totaled 2.5 fWAR and 2.7 rWAR, no doubt making him a useful player even if he’s not the MVP-level performer he was in his halcyon days.
Gardner, meanwhile, has been similarly valuable by wins above replacement, as he has accrued 2.3 fWAR and 2.8 rWAR in 583 PAs. However, the 35-year-old’s amid a difficult second half in which he has posted a meager .209/.290/.304 line (63 wRC+), and it has been a tough season in general versus southpaws for the left-handed Gardner – who has only managed a .641 OPS against them. All told, Gardner has batted a below-average .237/.325/.368 (90 wRC+) with 12 homers this season, though the speedster has still succeeded on 15 of 17 stolen base attempts and held his own in the outfield, where he has picked up 13 DRS, a 6.5 UZR and minus-one OAA. Despite his plus defense, Gardner’s offensive woes have relegated him to a bench role of late, as he has been in New York’s starting lineup just once this week.
Because of his track record as a well-rounded player and an esteemed clubhouse presence, the Yankees may be able to move Gardner via trade in the offseason if they’re against retaining him for another year. He does have 10-and-5 rights, however, and would be able to veto any potential move. If New York does cut ties with Gardner, though, it would mean saying goodbye to its longest-tenured player. A third-round pick of the Yankees in 2005, Gardner debuted in pinstripes in 2008 and has since accumulated 32.6 fWAR and 37.6 rWAR in 5,419 PAs, making him one of the most accomplished outfielders in the franchise’s storied history.
With the offseason over a month from beginning in earnest, the Yankees’ Brian Cashman-led brain trust still has a fair amount of time to decide on the futures of McCutchen and Gardner. And with the Yankees set to earn a wild-card berth this year, both McCutchen or Gardner could have more time to influence New York’s winter plans, depending on how they perform and how far the team advances in the playoffs. But with Judge, Stanton, Hicks and 2018 injury cases Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury among the Yankees’ outfield group for next season, it’ll be a surprise if they keep both McCutchen and Gardner.
August 31st Trade Deadline Recap
A flurry of activity came yesterday in advance of the deadline to acquire postseason-eligible players via trade. In case you weren’t able to keep track of it all, here’s a roundup of the swaps made by MLB organizations on August 31st, 2018, sorted by the team on the acquiring end of the major-leaguer involved.
AL West
- The Athletics received right-hander Cory Gearrin in a swap with the division-rival Rangers. Minor-league righties Abdiel Mendoza and Teodoro Ortega are headed back to Texas in the deal.
AL Central
- The Indians acquired Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays. Toronto will send $2.7MM to Cleveland as well, and they’ll get back a player to be named later, the quality of which will be dependent upon how Donaldson’s health situation progresses.
AL East
- The Yankees took Adeiny Hechavarria off the Pirates‘ hands in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. It’s not yet known how much cash the Bucs will chip in to help pay the ~$1MM still owed to Hechavarria.
- The Yankees also pried Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. San Francisco gets infield prospect Abiatal Avelino and right-handed pitching prospect Juan De Paula.
NL West
- The Dodgers nabbed David Freese from the Pirates. Infielder Jesus Valdez will head back to Pittsburgh in exchange.
- The Dodgers dealt for Ryan Madson of the Nationals as well. Minors righty Andrew Istler will head to Washington in the trade.
- The Rockies plucked catcher Drew Butera from the Royals and will receive some salary relief in addition. MiLB lefty Jerry Vasto is going back to Colorado.
NL Central
- The Brewers struck a trade with the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez. Milwaukee will also get $250K in international bonus pool funds, while a pair of minor leaguers (first baseman KJ Harrison and shortstop Gilbert Lara) will head to the Nats.
- The Brewers also landed Curtis Granderson in a swap with the Blue Jays. The Jays will cover an unknown portion of the money still owed on Granderson’s $5MM 2018 salary, and will add outfield prospect Demi Orimoloye to their minor-league ranks.
- The busy Brewers got Xavier Cedeno from the White Sox as well, who’ll get outfielder Bryan Connell and right-hander Johan Dominguez in return.
NL East
- (No trades)
Yankees Acquire Andrew McCutchen
The Yankees and Giants have struck a trade that will send veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen to New York, the teams announced on Friday. Minor league infielder Abiatal Avelino and minor league right-hander Juan De Paula are heading to the Giants in exchange.
McCutchen has reportedly cleared revocable waivers, which freed the Giants to shop him around the league without restriction. We had recently looked at some plausible landing spots for the veteran, with MLBTR readers pegging the Yanks as one of the likeliest suitors. McCutchen also topped MLBTR’s most recent ranking of the top August trade candidates.
While the Yanks still are counting on top slugger Aaron Judge to return in time for the postseason, it’s increasingly worrisome that he remains sidelined by a chip fracture in his wrist. And though the Yanks are all but certain to end up in a Wild Card play-in, the club still needs to prepare both to maximize its chances of winning that game and to be ready for a full postseason series of it does so.
Presently, the Yankees are utilizing long-time infielder Neil Walker in the outfield while also giving a roster spot to the light-hitting Shane Robinson. While Clint Frazier would be an appealing option, he’s just launching a rehab assignment after a lengthy DL stint of his own. Under the circumstances, it’s not hard to see why the Yankees held interest in McCutchen, who has produced solid offensive numbers this year despite failing to play to his once-great levels.
True, McCutchen’s batting line — .255/.357/.415 — doesn’t look all that appealing at first glance for a corner outfielder, though it’s roughly 15 percent better than that of a league-average bat when adjusting for his cavernous home park (by measure of wRC+). McCutchen is drawing walks at a strong 12.9% clip and has perhaps been unfortunate only to carry a .160 isolated power that’s lower than any full-season mark in his career. There’s a statistical argument to be made that his overall numbers are worse than should be expected of someone who makes the quality of contact McCutchen has made so far in 2018; Statcast credits him with a .364 xwOBA that lands well over his actual .339 wOBA output.
Nonetheless, as he closes in on his 32nd birthday, McCutchen simply isn’t the player that he once was. But he’s still a solid performer who is still capable of playing on a near-regular basis. McCutchen has hit more against lefties and isn’t grading well on the bases despite 13 steals, however, so once the Yankees’ roster is at full strength, he could potentially be deployed more selectively. He has generated average or better grades for his glovework in right, a welcome change after some rough seasons in center field.
For the Yankees, the optimal roster situation does not include McCutchen as an everyday presence. But, once Judge is back, he could potentially be quite a useful player by entering the mix with Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner.
For the Giants, there isn’t much reason to hold onto McCutchen at this point. The club isn’t going to make the postseason regardless, barring a miracle. And the veteran likely won’t be worth a qualifying offer. If the Giants want him back, they can still pursue him on the open market.
Meanwhile, the Giants will pick up some new assets. Avelino, 23, raked at Double-A to open the year but has fallen back to earth upon ascending to the highest level of the minors. He’s struggling to reach base and hasn’t sustained the power burst he showed earlier in the year, though it’s still notable that he has hit 15 home runs in 501 plate appearances after never previously even reaching double digits in a full season.
Avelino also runs well and has mostly played shortstop as a professional, though he also has seen significant time at second and third. He rated 23rd among Yankees prospects on MLB.com’s midseason ranking of the Yankees’ best prospects, so the scouting community has recognized his intriguing recent developments. While Avelino will need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from Rule 5 draft consideration, the Giants likely won’t find that too onerous and may consider allowing him to compete for a job in camp next spring.
In De Paula, the Yanks will add a hard-throwing 20-year-old who has spent the summer playing with the Yankees’ short-season Class-A affiliate in Staten Island. In 47 1/3 innings (nine starts, one relief appearance), he’s worked to a 1.71 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. De Paula ranked 26th among Yankees prospect, per MLB.com, drawing praise for a curveball and changeup that give him a chance for three above-average pitches.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that a deal was close and that Avelino would head to the Giants (Twitter links). ESPN’s Buster Olney reported an agreement had been reached (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal and Jim Bowden of The Athletic added financial details and that De Paula would be the second prospect in the deal (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.