Anthony Rendon

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2019 at 11:08am CDT

We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | November 12, 2019 at 9:24am CDT

MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,886 people entered the contest. Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going. (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year? Click here).

1. Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3. Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4. Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5. Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6. Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7. Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8. Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10. Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2019 at 5:50am CDT

Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Rangers Exploring Top-Tier Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | November 11, 2019 at 10:08pm CDT

The Rangers will enter the offseason with their eyes set at the very top prizes of free agency, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Whether they’ll come away with any major targets remains to be seen, but the club has now made clear it’ll pursue the biggest names available.

GM Jon Daniels has been circumspect in prior comments, but today he was ready to announce the reemergence of the Rangers as a major open-market player.

“This year, we are going to look at everything,” he said. “Our goal is to get better, period. There are a couple of spots more [available] than others. We have signed [top free agents] before and at some point I have to suspect we will again.”

It certainly stands to reason that now’s the time to jump back in with both feet. As we explored in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, there’s obvious need in the rotation and at third base — the two loaded areas on which this year’s free-agent class. And the club seems to have the payroll space needed to make something big happen, particularly with a shiny new ballpark coming online.

In our ranking of the top fifty free agents, we predicted the Rangers would land a notable third baseman and starting pitcher — while factoring in the market for quite a few of the top free agents. It’s tough to say whether the Texas org will ultimately be a significant player for expected nine-figure free agents such as Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, but all are plausible targets. Indeed, Grant reports that the club has already chatted with agent Scott Boras about both of those players, which certainly suggests the Rangers want to throw their hat in the ring.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2019 at 5:01pm CDT

It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
Will Smith, RP, Giants
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

AL West Notes: Espada, Rendon, Athletics

By Mark Polishuk | October 17, 2019 at 7:53pm CDT

Astros bench coach Joe Espada has been linked to another managerial opening, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Giants have asked the Astros for permission to speak to Espada. This will mark the third team who has put Espada on their radar this offseason, as he has already interviewed with the Cubs and received some consideration from the Angels before Los Angeles hired Joe Maddon. At least three more teams (the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers) all considered Espada for managerial vacancies last offseason, as well.

As Heyman notes, San Francisco’s list of known candidates consists of “mostly younger guys” who have never managed at the Major League level before, like the 44-year-old Espada. Gabe Kapler and Mike Matheny (who has to be interviewed for the job) are the only candidates who have been big league skippers, though Kapler is only 44 years old and Matheny is 49. Longtime Giants coach Ron Wotus, at 58, is the oldest of the candidates. It certainly seems as though Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is looking to follow the league’s recent trend towards younger, more analytically-inclined dugout bosses, though Zaidi said earlier this month that he was going to embark on a rather extensive search, so more candidates could still emerge.

Nationals’ Owner Lerner On Martinez, Rendon

By Anthony Franco | October 15, 2019 at 7:02pm CDT

The Nationals enter tonight’s NLCS Game 4 up 3-0 on St. Louis and turning the ball over to Patrick Corbin as they look to complete the sweep. Seeing as only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in MLB history, it’s little surprise Nats’ managing principal owner Mark Lerner is happy with his team’s position. Lerner talked with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASN) about his club’s “very special” position and fielded questions about the team’s manager and best player.

Interestingly, Lerner told reporters that firing manager Dave Martinez “never crossed (his) mind,” even amidst the club’s nightmarish start. Despite entering the year with high expectations, Washington started the season 19-31, leading to some speculation about Martinez’s future. After all, the Nationals have something of a reputation for being quick to pull the plug on managers. Martinez’s predecessor, Dusty Baker, wasn’t offered a contract extension after the 2017 season despite overseeing a division winner that year, with general manager Mike Rizzo saying at the time that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.” It stood to reason that Martinez could’ve been in some hot water after the club missed the playoffs in 2018 and got off to a slow start, so it’s interesting to hear that ownership was never considering a change.

Certainly, any speculation about Martinez’s job status has gone up in flames over the past few months. Washington’s spectacular second half got them to 93 wins regardless, and Martinez’s club is now on the doorstep of the franchise’s first pennant. That’s in no small part to the efforts of Anthony Rendon. The superstar third baseman put up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season, slashing .319/.412/.598 (154 wRC+) with his trademark elite defense at the hot corner. He’s picked up where he left off in the postseason, pairing with Juan Soto to form a two-man wrecking crew in the middle of the Nats’ order.

With Rendon a few weeks from becoming baseball’s most coveted position player free agent, Lerner predictably reiterated that the Nationals would love to keep him in D.C. “We certainly want to keep him. That’s 110 percent,” Lerner said of Rendon. “It’s really in Tony’s and his family’s hands at this point. They have to decide what they want to do. He’s earned that right as a free agent. It couldn’t happen to a better guy. We love him to death.”

“Good team wants to keep its best player” is hardly eye-popping news, and we know the Nats already floated an extension offer to the 29 year-old in the range of $210-215MM, although it’s possible deferrals could’ve held the contract’s actual value a bit below that figure. As Lerner acknowledged, though, there’s little reason for Rendon and his family not to explore their options in free agency at this point.

That’s not to say Rendon’s certainly leaving Washington; he’ll just assuredly speak with other teams as he and his family attempt to find their best fit. Lerner didn’t discuss specifically to what extent the organization would be willing to go to retain Rendon- in all likelihood, even the Nationals don’t know what their exact breaking point would be just yet- but it seems the club will be in the familiar position of lurking in the background while the face of their franchise tests the open market.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Robles, Taylor

By Mark Polishuk | October 13, 2019 at 9:45pm CDT

Here’s the latest from the Nationals, who take a 2-0 series lead into tomorrow’s Game Three of the NLCS….

Could Anthony Rendon be open to the idea of a relatively short-term contract for a high average annual average? “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal…because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes, which Olney feels could make Rendon even more of an attractive target for a team like the Dodgers. Los Angeles reportedly had interest in such a short-term deal with Bryce Harper last winter, though such efforts fell short since Harper was specifically looking for a very long-term contract. A premium free agent like Rendon showing interest in only a very pricey deal of four or five years would be a fascinating wrinkle, as clubs would no longer have to worry about a late-30’s decline if Rendon is only under contract through his age-33 or age-34 season. (The third baseman turns 30 next June.) It could also create a ripple effect for future superstar free agents around the game, and the players’ union may also not be pleased at one of its top names taking what teams would certainly adopt as a precedent-setting model. Then again, Rendon’s agent Scott Boras has long aimed to garner maximum money at maximum years for his clients, and Rendon reportedly already turned down a seven-year extension offer from the Nats worth $210-$215MM.
Victor Robles is expected to take part in batting practice and some running drills on Monday, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr). Robles also did some running today and underwent treatment on his bothersome right hamstring, which was tweaked in Game Two of the NLDS. The injury has kept Robles out of action, though there is some optimism he will be able to return for Monday’s game. “I’m not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow. But he’s progressing and hopefully he will be ready tomorrow,” Martinez said.
Robles will regain the regular center field job when he is ready to play, Martinez noted. This will send Michael A. Taylor back to the Nats’ bench, though Taylor has performed well (.300/.333/.450) in 21 plate appearances since filling in for Robles. It marked a nice turn-around for Taylor, the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier writes, as Taylor’s early-season struggles led to a demotion to Double-A, before he finally got his swing back on track in the final days of his minor league assignment. “I was finally able to get that feeling. I just tried to repeat over and over,” Taylor said about a hot streak that saw him post a 1.191 OPS over his last 52 PA in the minors. Though he was at one point a top prospect and seemed to be breaking out at the MLB level as recently as the 2017 season, Taylor has been inconsistent over his six big league seasons, but now stands as a very valuable bench asset as the Nationals continue their postseason run.

Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

By Connor Byrne | October 7, 2019 at 10:19pm CDT

A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

Nationals Reportedly Made Recent Extension Offer To Anthony Rendon

By Jeff Todd | September 30, 2019 at 5:53pm CDT

The Nationals have made a late-season push to retain pending free agent star Anthony Rendon, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

Per the report, the club dangled a seven-year offer in the range of $210MM to $215MM. While there were deferrals in the proposal, it would’ve functioned more like the Max Scherzer contract than the long-fuse offer the team made last year to Bryce Harper.

The offer was put on the table in early September, according to Svrluga, and it doesn’t seem as if it’s likely to be accepted. Rendon is now just weeks away from the open market and appears destined to reach it. He’ll do so armed with the knowledge that the Nats have intense interest in keeping him.

It’s not entirely clear whether the D.C. organization will keep this particular offer on the table once the offseason begins. Neither is it known whether the team is willing to go any higher if that’s needed. Regardless, it’s a nice starting point for Rendon, who has ramped up his already excellent play to higher-than-ever levels in 2019. He’s slated to reach free agency as the top available position player.

Depending upon where one looks for their contract numbers, the reported offer may sound light. After all, Rockies star third bagger Nolan Arenado just got a $260MM contract that spans eight years … sort of. In fact, that deal added seven years and $234MM beyond Arenado’s final season of arbitration eligibility. In reality, the Nats’ offer to Rendon is close to — but still clearly less than — the money the Rox gave to Arenado.

That Arenado contract (which also includes an opt-out) always spelled bad news for the D.C. organization’s efforts with Rendon, as it pushed a big new comp out at an inopportune time. Rendon is nearly a year older, lacks the history of consistent home run output, and isn’t as flashy a fielder or well-known a marketing piece. But for all his steady excellence, Arenado has never reached the offensive heights Rendon did in 2019 and hasn’t yet posted a 6.0 fWAR campaign. Rendon, meanwhile, has quietly reeled off three-straight seasons with that level of all-around value.

These ongoing talks only help to set the stage for what promises to be quite an interesting trip onto the open market for Rendon and super-agent Scott Boras. The universe of bidders isn’t yet known, but there’s little doubt multiple clubs will make serious pushes to draw Rendon from the Nats.

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