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Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

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A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

Who will sign the bigger contract?
Gerrit Cole 64.19% (6,425 votes)
Anthony Rendon 35.81% (3,585 votes)
Total Votes: 10,010

Nationals Reportedly Made Recent Extension Offer To Anthony Rendon

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The Nationals have made a late-season push to retain pending free agent star Anthony Rendon, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

Per the report, the club dangled a seven-year offer in the range of $210MM to $215MM. While there were deferrals in the proposal, it would’ve functioned more like the Max Scherzer contract than the long-fuse offer the team made last year to Bryce Harper.

The offer was put on the table in early September, according to Svrluga, and it doesn’t seem as if it’s likely to be accepted. Rendon is now just weeks away from the open market and appears destined to reach it. He’ll do so armed with the knowledge that the Nats have intense interest in keeping him.

It’s not entirely clear whether the D.C. organization will keep this particular offer on the table once the offseason begins. Neither is it known whether the team is willing to go any higher if that’s needed. Regardless, it’s a nice starting point for Rendon, who has ramped up his already excellent play to higher-than-ever levels in 2019. He’s slated to reach free agency as the top available position player.

Depending upon where one looks for their contract numbers, the reported offer may sound light. After all, Rockies star third bagger Nolan Arenado just got a $260MM contract that spans eight years … sort of. In fact, that deal added seven years and $234MM beyond Arenado’s final season of arbitration eligibility. In reality, the Nats’ offer to Rendon is close to — but still clearly less than — the money the Rox gave to Arenado.

That Arenado contract (which also includes an opt-out) always spelled bad news for the D.C. organization’s efforts with Rendon, as it pushed a big new comp out at an inopportune time. Rendon is nearly a year older, lacks the history of consistent home run output, and isn’t as flashy a fielder or well-known a marketing piece. But for all his steady excellence, Arenado has never reached the offensive heights Rendon did in 2019 and hasn’t yet posted a 6.0 fWAR campaign. Rendon, meanwhile, has quietly reeled off three-straight seasons with that level of all-around value.

These ongoing talks only help to set the stage for what promises to be quite an interesting trip onto the open market for Rendon and super-agent Scott Boras. The universe of bidders isn’t yet known, but there’s little doubt multiple clubs will make serious pushes to draw Rendon from the Nats.

Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents

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The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).

He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.

So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.

Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.

As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.

If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.

Scott Boras’ Relationship With Ted Lerner Adds Wrinkle To Rendon Negotiations

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Anthony Rendon has long been one of baseball’s more avuncular superstars. As easygoing in temperament as he is fluid in his athleticism, when Rendon takes the field for the Nationals, he looks like he’s playing, well, a game. He’s quick to dispel incorrect assumptions about the game that stem from platitudes, he doesn’t put on airs (or shoes) for the press, and if he doesn’t feel like talking, he doesn’t. He said quite a bit last week on 106.7’s The Fan, however, and those listening walked away with the distinct impression that Rendon would be testing free agency at the end of the season.

Of course, pending free agents rarely extend this close to the bell, and Rendon is not one to surrender his autonomy unnecessarily. That doesn’t mean, however, that his departure from Washington is a foregone conclusion. Rendon met with his agent Scott Boras last week in Phoenix, after which Boras met with Nats ownership to continue an ongoing dialogue about Rendon’s future with the team, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

Every team has agents or other front offices they are comfortable dealing with, and for the Nationals, funny as it sounds, a Scott Boras negotiation is a world in which they are at ease. Boras and Ted Lerner – the Nats’ principal owner – have built up a fair amount of trust over the years through pulling together nearly every type of superstar negotiation, from an early extension for Stephen Strasburg, to the free agent signing of Max Scherzer, to the departure of Bryce Harper last offseason.

While it may sound overly optimistic to point to Harper’s free agency departure as a touchstone of a positive working relationship, it very well may be. Lerner and Boras know the game between them at this point, and while the ultimate price for Rendon may exceed what the Lerner’s are willing to pay, there aren’t a lot of unknowns between the parties.

Still, both Boras and Rendon have made a point to isolate Rendon as the decision-maker in the relationship, and given Rendon’s independent streak they probably mean it. Rendon sounded almost bitter over not having had an extension hammered out at any point previous during his 6-year relationship with the Nationals, but he also made clear that there is a price at which he’d happily re-up with the Nats. That price is bound to be exorbitant, perhaps even exceeding Nolan Arenado’s extension, but the premium would be to forego the opportunity to explore the market. Given Lerner’s relationship with Boras, that would seem to be an unnecessary expense on Lerner’s part.

Given the way Rendon has played this season, he has no reason to settle for anything less than top dollar. The underrated superstar has put together an MVP-type year, .315/.400/.608 while tying a career-high with 25 home runs (it’s August). His 153 wRC+ places him sixth among all qualified batters in the MLB, first overall in the majors among infielders. He is a singular superstar – in play and personality – and Boras’ relationship with Lerner only factors if Rendon, 29, really wants to stay in Washington. Positionally, third base is – after catcher – perhaps the most siloed in baseball, eliminating a couple contenders for his services (including his hometown team in Houston). Regardless, he no doubt will have alternatives if he does’t get what he wants from Washington once the season is over.

Speculatively speaking, Rendon would be an appropriate spiritual successor to Adrian Beltre in Texas – his home state. The Braves or Phillies could make a play to steal Rendon from a rival, though both teams have long-term answers nearby in Austin Riley and Alec Bohm. Looking elsewhere in the National League, the Cubs, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Reds already have money committed to third base, while the Pirates, Mets and Marlins have cheap options on hand. The American League has more third base slots available, but few offer the competitive environment available to Rendon in Washington.

The Nationals worked hard to stay under the tax this year, but they haven’t been shy about going over in the past, and they actually have a fair amount of payroll space to work with next year with Ryan Zimmerman’s $18MM coming off the books. Giving the keys to what-has-been Zimmerman’s house over to Rendon makes a lot of sense from a narrative standpoint. Rendon already supplanted Zimmerman at third base. No matter the outcome, the contract negotiations should linger into the offseason, and all parties involved seem comfortable with that.

Scott Boras On Possibility Of Anthony Rendon Extension

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While quiet Nationals star Anthony Rendon elected not to participate in this year’s All-Star festivities — somehow the first time he has been selected — his less-than-taciturn agent was on hand and willing to discuss Rendon’s contract situation. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports reports, Scott Boras certainly did not sound like a man who was close to wrapping up a contract for his client.

Engagement between the Nats and Rendon/Boras has seemingly been sporadic. There was an apparent uptick in activity recently, with Boras present in D.C. and reports indicating that the sides were negotiating in earnest. But the super-agent doused that flame, explaining: “I go to a lot of ballparks. It doesn’t mean we’re investing into anything that’s relevant to contract terms.”

Boras was content to press the obvious leverage he has gained over recent months. The mammoth Nolan Arenado extension removed a major market competitor and set a big price for top third-base talent before the season, with the surprisingly light Xander Bogaerts contract providing only a meager counterweight in terms of precedent. Rendon has since ramped up his already sterling resume to the point that Boras now has trouble embellishing. (Not that he wasn’t willing to dabble, labeling Rendon a “superstar” and at least hinting at a partial comparison to the peerless Mike Trout.)

A few choice quotes hint at Boras’s stance vis-a-vis a Nationals organization he has dealt with frequently:

  • “I think [Rendon’s] focused on the season.”
  • “I don’t know what their diagnostics are, but we’ll see as we approach the offseason.”
  • “It’s really in their corner as to how we go from there.”
  • “Ted and the Lerner family, and the organization, we’ve always worked out things — usually.” (an under-the-radar, instant Boras classic)

The takeaway is clear, if already obvious to the familiar Nats: Rendon’s camp is in the driver’s seat and in no rush to make a deal. Convincing him to forego a run at a market that’ll be mostly devoid of other top talent will take a major payday — one that the team may ultimately be willing to post. If there’s an ace in the hole for D.C., beyond its familiarity to Rendon, it may simply be that it’s the only place the reserved 29-year-old can line up his future without an attention-grabbing foray into free agency.

Nationals, Anthony Rendon Discussing Extension

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Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon is slated to become the best position player to hit free agency in the upcoming offseason. He might not reach the open market, though. Nationals owner Ted Lerner and Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, are discussing an extension for the All-Star, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports.

Boras was at Nationals Park on Saturday – an indication of how serious negotiations have become, Zuckerman observes. The two sides have talked about a new deal for Rendon on and off for a while now, though they haven’t been able to bridge the gap thus far. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported earlier this week there hadn’t been much progress between the team and player, noting Rendon’s likely seeking a pact in the range of the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado signed before the season.

Rendon’s trophy case is nowhere near as full as that of Arenado, who has earned five All-Star trips and six Gold Gloves, among other awards. Nevertheless, Rendon has been one of the majors’ premier players in his own right. Rendon, whom the Nationals chose sixth overall in the 2011 draft, debuted in 2013 and has since slashed .286/.363/.482 (125 wRC+) with 122 home runs and 29.0 fWAR in 3,597 plate appearances. Only 11 position players have bettered Rendon in the fWAR department dating back to his first at-bat, and he’s now enjoying his top season yet. On the strength of a .304/.388/.612 line (150 wRC+) with 20 homers in 320 PA, Rendon finally picked up a long-overdue All-Star nod.

Now, having lost Bryce Harper to free agency last winter, the Nationals don’t seem prepared to let yet another homegrown superstar depart. Harper’s also a Boras client, but even though the team was unable to retain the outfielder, its ownership is known to have a positive relationship with the super-agent.

Along with Rendon, four of the Nationals’ other players are Boras clients, including high-profile starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Washington signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM contract in free agency entering 2015. The club then handed Strasburg a seven-year, $175MM extension in May 2016, when he was just a few months from potentially testing the open market. The Nationals may now follow suit with Rendon.

NL Injury Notes: Rendon, Dodgers, Pirates

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Checking in on the latest notable injury news from the National League…

  • Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon finally earned his first All-Star nod this season, but the 29-year-old is going to miss the game, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. Rendon will instead rest his ailing hamstring and quad, two areas that have nagged him since the Nationals’ series against the Reds from May 31 to June 2. Despite having to play through pain over the past month-plus, Rendon’s performance has remained stellar for the surging Nats. He’s hitting .304/.389/.615 (152 wRC+) with 20 home runs through 316 plate appearances.
  • The Dodgers offered updates on a slew of injured players today, with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register among those covering the news (all links to Twitter). Backstop Will Smith and righty Tony Gonsolin, present depth pieces with bright long-term outlooks, are each headed to the injured list. The former has a strained right oblique and will be placed on the MLB IL, having not played since being sent down. The latter is dealing with a left hamstring issue and will go on ice for a stretch to avoid any complications. Meanwhile, the club is awaiting the returns of infielders David Freese and Corey Seager. The former is just waiting for his hamstring to heal up; he’ll seemingly remain out through the All-Star break. The latter is also not a candidate for activation before the mid-summer festivities but could rejoin the club immediately thereafter.
  • Pirates southpaw Steven Brault exited his start against the Brewers on Friday with an ominous-sounding issue – left shoulder discomfort – per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The severity of Brault’s injury isn’t known yet, but he’s not feeling great at the moment, Will Graves of The Associated Press tweets. Should Brault require a stint on the IL, he’d become the fifth notable Pittsburgh starter to go on the shelf this season. Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Jordan Lyles have all missed various amounts of time. The onslaught of starter injuries is a key reason the Pirates have turned to the swingman Brault, who has done a decent job over 60 2/3 innings. Across 15 appearances and nine starts, he owns a 4.15 ERA/4.53 FIP with 7.86 K/9, though he has walked a hefty 4.75 per nine.

Mike Rizzo On Nats’ Extension Talks With Anthony Rendon

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It’s rather uncommon to see significant, mid-season extensions. And it emerged recently that the Nationals have not made recent headway in their efforts to strike a deal with star third baseman Anthony Rendon. But that doesn’t mean Nationals president of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo is giving up hope of a deal that keeps the key veteran with the organization and off of the open market.

In an appearance on The Racing Presidents podcast, Rizzo made clear that the club is “not going to stop” trying to reach agreement until Rendon provides “a definitive decision” one way or another. There continues to be keen interest on both sides, Rizzo suggests, and he still believes “there’s a deal to be had.”

While the Nats’ top baseball decisionmaker understandably did not get into details, he did say that the team has “made very respectful, very market value offers.” Rendon’s true value in an extension scenario remains debatable. The recent deal between the Rockies and Nolan Arenado (seven years, $234MM) undoubtedly represents a key data point for both sides to consider. No doubt the Nats would also point Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, to the much more modest deal he negotiated with the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts. That these and other significant players elected to forego free agency is also a factor in projecting what Rendon might take down on the open market, where he’ll stand out as one of few premium players.

It’s obviously going to be harder now to convince Rendon not to test the open market. He has finally been tabbed for an All-Star game after an exceptional start to the year; no doubt his prominence will rise yet further as less attentive observers realize that the game’s quietest star is nearing free agency.

“It all comes down to what makes it work and what entices him to sign with the Nationals and not go through the free agent process,” said Rizzo. “And it’s gotta make sense for us also.”

Whether the sides can arrive at a number that suits both remains to be seen. But it doesn’t seem the Nationals have wavered in their desire to add another big salary to the books. The club has been on a tear of late, bouncing back from a messy start to climb back to within six games of the division pace. And the team’s core — Rendon aside — remains under contract for the foreseeable future.

By all indications, Rizzo is preparing to act as a buyer this summer. But if the club again ends up in a bit of a gray area, he won’t have as much flexibility to change course in August. Asked about how the new trade deadline rules will impact the market, Rizzo says he expects it will “keep[] more teams in the mix” and produce “more activity before the [July] 31st deadline.” Though he says it won’t much impact the Nats — “when we see opportunities we usually jump on them and take them” — Rizzo does note that the changed rules only “give you one bite at the apple.”

Nationals, Anthony Rendon Not Progressing Toward Extension

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The underrating of Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has finally subsided a bit in 2019. The 29-year-old, owner of a 29.1 fWAR since his 2013 debut, finally made his first All-Star Game this season. All he had to do was hit .311/.398/.630 (158 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 299 plate appearances to earn a spot on this year’s National League roster.

Lack of All-Star nods aside, teams recognize the value of Rendon, who’s not far from reeling in a nine-figure contract. Aside from Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, Rendon is hands down the majors’ preeminent player scheduled to reach the open market this winter. The Nationals would like to prevent Rendon from ever shopping his services around the game, of course, but it’s up in the air whether they’ll be able to stop the Scott Boras client. While both sides have expressed interest in continuing their partnership past this season, no agreement has materialized yet.

Now, four months before free agency, “there has been little to no progress” toward a long-term contract, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Asked about negotiations, Rendon told Dougherty they’re “out of my hands,” though he did suggest he’s still amenable to staying in D.C.

Back when the Nationals and Boras were discussing a Rendon deal a few months ago, the player’s camp used Astros second baseman Jose Altuve’s pact as a starting point, according to Dougherty. Altuve signed a a five-year, $151MM extension going into 2018, when he was a soon-to-be 28-year-old coming off an AL MVP- and World Series-winning season. He was also a five-time All-Star then. The Nationals didn’t place a similar value on the less decorated Rendon, per Dougherty. Unsurprisingly, as Dougherty notes, the seven-year, $234MM guarantee the Rockies gave their own standout third baseman, Nolan Arenado, entering this season didn’t do anything to bridge the gap between the Nationals and Rendon. However, should the two sides resume talks in earnest, Dougherty suggests Rendon’s side would likely push for an Arenado-esque deal.

Barring a massive change in course over the next few months, Rendon seems almost certain to become a free agent after the season. In the process, he’d likely follow in Bryce Harper’s footsteps as the second Nats superstar to leave in as many winters. The Nationals, even though they were treading water last summer, decided against parting with Harper before either of the summer trade deadlines. They ended up losing the bidding for Harper to the Phillies in the offseason and only getting a draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for the qualifying offer recipient.

As was the case a summer ago, the Nationals are hanging around the .500 mark as they decide how to proceeded with a key free agent. The club has surged since a nightmarish start, putting it at 42-41 and just a game and a half out of a playoff spot. Assuming the Nationals stay on this path, it’s hard to envision them selling Rendon for a package of young talent this summer. If Rendon does leave Washington in the coming months, it seems likely to occur in free agency, when the team could land better compensation for the eventual QO recipient’s departure than it did Harper’s. Should the Nationals stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold through this season – which they’ve done by a couple million dollars to this point – they’ll get a pick after Competitive Balance Round B for Rendon’s exit.

Poll: Anthony Rendon’s Future

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Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has been among the majors’ most valuable players since his first full season, 2014, having recorded the league’s eighth-highest fWAR (26.4). The 28-year-old is now enjoying another magnificent campaign, one that may end with career-best offensive numbers, as he has slashed .331/.416/.669 (181 wRC+) with eight home runs in 137 plate appearances. At 19-27, the Nationals haven’t been able to capitalize on Rendon’s excellence this season – nor have they even won a playoff series during his career – and time may be running out for the club to take advantage of his presence.

Rendon is one of the game’s premier impending free agents, a player who’s likely on a collision course with a nine-figure payday over the next few months, and is far from certain to remain in Washington. Rendon has expressed interest in continuing with the Nationals, who have made an effort to extend him, but the team hasn’t been able to close the gap with the Boras Corporation client thus far. With Rendon still not under contract beyond this season and the July 31 trade deadline inching closer, the Nationals may have to decide soon whether to keep the homegrown star or deal him.

If the Nationals rebound from their shaky start and emerge as contenders over the next two months, chances are they won’t consider moving an unsigned Rendon. Otherwise, should the Nats’ woes continue, general manager Mike Rizzo could think about parting with him. The executive was in a similar position last year with Bryce Harper, whom he elected not to give up during the summer even though Washington was treading water and the outfielder was approaching free agency. Rizzo spurned interest from the Astros, Indians and Dodgers (and perhaps other unreported teams), in part because he wanted to continue working toward a long-term deal with Harper. In the end, though, the Nationals neither prevented Harper from testing the market – where he secured the largest contract ever for a free agent (13 years, $330MM) – nor exiting D.C.

Harper joined the division-rival Phillies this past offseason and all the Nationals got for their trouble was a draft pick after the fourth round, given that they exceeded the luxury tax in 2018 and he rejected their qualifying offer. This time, if the Nationals retain Rendon through the season and he walks in free agency in lieu of accepting a QO, they’re likely to receive a more appealing pick (a selection after Competitive Balance Round B). While the Nationals are only $3MM-plus under the $206MM tax threshold, ownership does not want to surpass that mark this season.

Whether draft compensation for Rendon’s departure would be worth more than the package the Nats would acquire for him in a trade is something Rizzo will have to determine. But it’s possible Rendon would be to this season’s deadline what Manny Machado was to last year’s. Machado’s then-team, the Orioles, oversaw a bidding war for the impending free agent and wound up accepting an offer of five young players from the Dodgers. Ideally for the Nationals, they’ll do what the Orioles couldn’t and lock up their top position player in advance of the deadline. If not, though, Rizzo may have an important choice to make by then.

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Nationals do if they don't extend Rendon?
Trade him by the deadline if they're not in contention 79.80% (5,701 votes)
Keep him through the season no matter what 20.20% (1,443 votes)
Total Votes: 7,144
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