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Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Pavano, Buehrle, Millwood

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe names the winners and losers of the Winter Meetings in his newest piece, with the Red Sox, Nationals, and White Sox topping his list of winners. Cafardo also shares a handful of hot stove notes. Here are the highlights:

  • Before they signed Carl Crawford, the Red Sox "did a ton of work" on Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Beltran.
  • Carl Pavano figures to wait for Cliff Lee to sign, so he can see the type of offers he receives as the top pitcher on the market. Cafardo thinks Pavano could be a backup plan for the Rangers if they don't land Lee, though the Twins still remain the favorites for the 34-year-old. Texas has also inquired on Matt Garza and James Shields.
  • The White Sox will listen to offers for Mark Buehrle, whose contract expires after the 2011 season. Buehrle earned ten and five rights this year, so he'd have the option of vetoing any trade.
  • Agent Scott Boras says a strong market is developing for Kevin Millwood.
  • Team officials that spoke to Cafardo had mixed opinions on free agent backstop Russell Martin. One opined that Martin "can't call a game," while another raved about the enthusiasm the catcher brings each day.
  • According to Cafardo, the Red Sox were the only team to discuss Justin Upton with the Diamondbacks, balking at Kevin Towers' insistence that Daniel Bard be included in a potential deal.
  • The Astros would have interest in trading Matt Lindstrom and Jeff Keppinger.
  • Grant Balfour is seeking a three-year contract. The Red Sox have looked into him, but are hoping Matt Guerrier will accept their offer. As Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston noted today (via Twitter), Guerrier is one of the top relief targets for Boston, along with Brian Fuentes and Jesse Crain.

Mets Notes: Elvin Ramirez, Ohman, Rhodes, Okajima

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The latest on the Mets as the third day of the Winter Meetings wraps up…

Rockies Interested In Cantu, Harden, Bullpen Help

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We've heard that Ty Wigginton is the Rockies' top target for a right-handed bat, but the club has other targets for that role, as well as interest in several other players, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Let's go over some of them:

  • Jorge Cantu is one alternative to Wigginton, despite a miserable second half to the 2010 season. GM Dan O'Dowd acknowledged that they'd prefer someone who can play in the outfield, but that's not critical.
  • The Rockies have soured on Josh Willingham due to Washington's asking price and concerns over the 31-year-old's knee. They've also called about Jeff Francoeur, believing he could handle first base.
  • Colorado would have interest in Rich Harden in a bullpen role, if the righty would be willing to make the switch from starting pitching. There's also the question of whether or not the injury-prone Harden could hold up physically. Renck says the Rox have tried to acquire Harden numerous times in the past, but to no avail.
  • Colorado is also looking at Kevin Gregg, Bobby Jenks, Brian Fuentes, Jesse Crain, and Pedro Feliciano, though the first three prefer to close, which won't happen in Denver.
  • The Rockies also haven't closed the door on Joe Beimel, who tells Renck he'd love to come back to Colorado.

Red Sox Interested In Fuentes, Mahay

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6:09pm: Fuentes is looking for $6-8MM per season, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).

12:12pm: The Red Sox are interested in lefty relievers Brian Fuentes and Ron Mahay, reports Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.  The Sox clearly have a need for southpaw relief, and unlike Scott Downs, Fuentes and Mahay will not cost a draft pick. 

I wonder if Fuentes will first try to find a closing job.  The Orioles are known to have contacted Fuentes' agent and can pitch a ninth inning opening.  Though they seek a closer, the Diamondbacks are not in on Fuentes according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.

Check out my free agent stock watch piece on Fuentes here.  My one-year, $4MM idea from October now seems light.

Orioles Notes: Tillman, Hernandez, Reynolds, Uehara

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The Orioles missed out on Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn, but they're still in the hunt for Paul Konerko.  Here's a look at some of their other offseason targets…

  • Chris Tillman's name has been mentioned in connection with the Mark Reynolds trade rumors, tweets Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the D'Backs "seem to like" David Hernandez more, but Hernandez would be just one piece of what's likely to be a pitcher-centric package (Twitter links).   
  • The O's are one of three teams known to be exploring a Reynolds deal, but they're the ones with "the heaviest interest" in the third baseman according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.  The Blue Jays and Padres, in fact, "strongly deny" that they're even pursuing Reynolds.
  • "Some progress has been made" between the Orioles and Koji Uehara, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  The club has been keeping in touch with Uehara's agent and Zrebiec says team officials "feel pretty good" about their ability to re-sign the reliever.
  • Zrebiec also notes that Baltimore has been in discussions about a number of free agent relievers and have contacted the representatives of Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain, Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier and Kerry Wood.  The O's "have at least one offer out" to one of these pitchers, Zrebiec says.
  • Baltimore has contacted Bobby Jenks' agent, reports Zrebiec in another piece.
  • From that same article, Zrebiec writes "the next person I speak to in the organization who feels the O’s have a shot at Konerko would be the first."  The Orioles' interest in Konerko is "largely overblown" and most insiders feel Konerko will re-sign with the White Sox.

American League Free Agent Arbitration Offers

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10 American League teams have free agent arbitration offer decisions to make, and we'll group them in this post.  For a fantastic customizable chart with all 65 Type A/B free agents and their decisions in real-time, click here.

Hoffman Drawing Interest, Undecided On Future

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Trevor Hoffman told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom that he wants to test free agency before deciding whether to play in 2011. If he sees an offer he likes, the 43-year-old could return for a 19th season. If not, the all-time saves leader says he’s prepared to retire.

Hoffman has drawn preliminary interest from a number of teams, according to his agent. Rick Thurman, who also represents free agents Brian Fuentes, Arthur Rhodes, Will Ohman, Octavio Dotel and Chan Ho Park, spoke with the D’Backs last Friday about potential fits for their bullpen.

That’s one possible destination for Hoffman, who can envision playing in Arizona under Kevin Towers, the D’Backs GM who ran the Padres when Hoffman pitched in San Diego. Towers repeated that re-building the bullpen is a priority for the D’Backs this offseason, but Hoffman isn't sure how much interest he'll draw. 

"I'm coming off a tough year,” Hoffman told MLB.com. “I don't know if people are going to be turned off by that or not. I hope the strong second half I had will compensate."

Hoffman won’t find many closing jobs available outside of Arizona, but there are many potential closers available, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out yesterday. Though he started slowly, Hoffman recovered to pitch considerably better after early May. ESPN.com’s Keith Law warned interested teams about the risks associated with Hoffman earlier today. However, Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that "you'd be nuts if you didn't at least consider somebody like Trevor Hoffman" (Twitter link).

Marlins Notes: Relievers, Nunez, Payroll, Ross

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MLB.com's Joe Frisaro answered some Fish-centric topics in a fan mailbag that dealt with a few hot stove rumors.  Here are the highlights…

  • It's unlikely that Florida will go after big-name free agent relievers like Matt Capps or Brian Fuentes this winter.  The club is more likely to explore "a trade or two for some young, emerging arms" to form their bullpen.
  • "It's not guaranteed" that Leo Nunez will be a Marlin next season.  Nunez is headed to arbitration for the second time, and Frisaro predicts the right-hander is due to earn approximately $4MM.  Nunez was terrific in the first four months of the season before a horrific August (a 9.31 ERA and three blown saves in 10 appearances) cost him the closer's job to Clay Hensley, though Nunez did pitch well in September.  Nunez would draw a lot of interest on the trade market if the Marlins decide that he's too expensive.
  • Frisaro predicts the Marlins' 2011 payroll to be around $48-$50MM, with a bit of leeway to bump it up a couple million dollars.  He thinks the club's payroll for 2012 (when the Marlins move into their new ballpark) will be bumped up to the $70MM-range.  Frisaro notes that Florida's season-ticket sales for their new stadium are already better than expected.
  • Even if the Giants hadn't planned on retaining Cody Ross, Frisaro shoots down any chance that the Marlins would've been interested in bringing Ross back.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Examining Minnesota’s Bullpen

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It’s not easy to imagine a bullpen with more question marks than Minnesota’s. That's not to say the Twins don’t have quality relievers, it’s just hard to predict which ones will return in 2011. Kelly Thesier of MLB.com breaks down the team’s bullpen, which includes six free agents and a non-tender candidate.

Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, Ron Mahay and Randy Flores all hit free agency but they won’t all return. Thesier says the Twins are not likely to keep Mahay or Flores and seem most likely to target Crain and Guerrier.

Crain, who ranks as a Type B free agent, says he loves Minnesota but would like the chance to close. That won’t happen if he stays put, since Joe Nathan should return from Tommy John surgery next year. Matt Capps, who saved 42 games in 2010, figures to be next in line for saves.

The Nathan-Capps duo promises to be effective, but it will definitely be expensive. Nathan earns $11.25MM next year and Capps will get a raise from his $3.5MM salary through arbitration.

If the Twins lose certain pitchers after offering arbitration, they could gain picks in next year’s draft. Crain, Rauch and Fuentes rank as Type B free agents and could each bring the Twins a supplementary first round pick. Guerrier is a Type A free agent, so the Twins would get two top picks if he leaves after declining arbitration.

Clay Condrey, who didn’t pitch in 2010 due to elbow problems, is a non-tender candidate. Despite all the uncertainty in the 'pen, Bill Smith & Co. head into the offseason with a more stable rotation.

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