Carlos Pena And Jose Bautista
What does last year's American League home run leader have in common with this year's AL home run leader besides a habit of hitting the ball over the fence? They both strike out a lot and walk a lot. They were both born in Santo Domingo. They're both bilingual. And both Carlos Pena and Jose Bautista bounced from organization to organization to organization before finding major league success.
The two sluggers have a lot in common, and while some of their similarities don't have any impact on MLB teams, others do. In fact, we can guess what Bautista might make through arbitration next year by comparing him to Pena.
Like Pena, Bautista is a super two player, meaning he goes to arbitration four times instead of three. After Pena broke out with 46 homers in 2007, he was set to reach arbitration for the third time*. He made $2.8MM in his second arbitration year and was clearly due for a substantial raise after setting a career-high in homers and winning a Silver Slugger in 2007. Ultimately, Pena signed a three-year deal that guaranteed him $6MM for the 2008 season.
Bautista, who has an MLB-leading 26 homers, is headed for his fourth and final arbitration season in 2011. He'll earn $2.4MM this year and, if he keeps hitting like this, will earn substantially more next season. For comparison, Pena's breakout led to a $3.2MM raise. Scott Boras represents Pena, who finished with 20 more homers than Bautista currently has. Even if Bautista continues hitting at an All-Star level, it's hard to imagine him making much more than $6MM next year.
The comparison is imperfect for many reasons, despite the players' similarities. Home run hitters are becoming scarce, Pena's deal was for his third arbitration season and was part of a three-year pact, and Pena had enjoyed more MLB success before his breakout. But it appears that the MLB executives who estimated to Buster Olney that Bautista could earn $10-12MM next year are off the mark. One executive suggested to MLBTR today that Bautista would have a hard time getting much more than $7-8MM in 2011.
So why does this matter? Ask the Blue Jays, who are no doubt wondering how Bautista would fit into their 2011 budget. Or ask the Braves, Giants, Tigers and White Sox, who have all inquired on him. The difference between $6MM and $10-12MM is a big one.
*Pena spent much of 2005-06 in the minors, which slowed his arbitration timeline and path to free agency.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Ibanez, Andruw, Pena
On this date seven years ago, six Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Roy Oswalt started the game but had to leave after just one inning of work because of a groin issue. He was relieved by Pete Munro and then Kirk Saarloos before the three headed bullpen monster of Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Billy Wagner closed things out. It ended the Yankees' streak of 6,980 games with at least one hit.
Here are a few links to check out from our fellow baseball bloggers…
- Phillies Nation says it's time for the Phightin's to part ways with Raul Ibanez.
- Meanwhile, Crashburn Alley wants to see the Phillies shake up the bench.
- The Sacrifice Bunt thinks Andruw Jones could be a nice pick-up for the Padres.
- More Hardball looks at the peculiar season of free agent to be Carlos Pena.
- Disciples of Uecker reviews the Jeff Suppan era in Milwaukee.
- River Ave. Blues believes the Yankees will only add complementary pieces this summer.
- Capitol Avenue Club sums up the Braves' approach to this week's draft.
- 1 Blue Jays Way rounds up all the different kinds of draft picks we hear about this time of year.
- Baseball Opinion goes back to the review the AL East and the 2005 amateur draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Padres, Chipper, Pagan, Phillies
Links for Thursday, as the Phillies attempt to get their offense going…
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells FanGraphs contributor Mike Lee that trading within a division makes sense at times. The entire interview is worth a read.
- In a clip for FanHouse TV, former Mets GM Steve Phillips explains what he meant when he said he would deal Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo breaks down this year's class of draft-eligible catchers and describes Yasmani Grandal's development into a top prospect.
- David Patton, who was designated for assignment when the Cubs had to make room for Bob Howry, has cleared waivers and re-signed with the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (via Twitter).
- Chipper Jones told 790 the Ticket in Miami that he might not play next year, even though he's under contract (transcript on Sports Radio Interviews, hat tip to USA Today). Chipper has gone back and forth on the issue this year.
- Angel Pagan is a better player than Jeff Francoeur for 2010 and beyond, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Phillies are more likely to trade for a third or fourth starter than an ace this summer, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports. Knobler hears that the Phillies may match up best with a team looking to shed the salary of an expensive starter.
- Drew Pomeranz pitched well in front of a dozen or more scouting directors, writes ESPN.com's Keith Law. Meanwhile, teams have questions about righty Anthony Ranaudo's medical history.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown and Jon Heyman of SI.com believe Stephen Strasburg will make his MLB debut on June 8th, though both writers remind us that the date could change (Twitter links).
- David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Carlos Pena should show more plate discipline and pull the ball if he wants to sign a big free agent contract this offseason.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Griffey, Pena, Dye
In his latest Full Count video for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal says that retirement could become a more realistic option for Ken Griffey Jr. if the 40-year-old continues to see less playing time. Rosenthal adds that, during their past two contract negotiations, Griffey and agent Brian Goldberg have discussed with the Mariners "how a phase-out might occur," since Griffey hopes to continue his relationship with the team after his retirement. Here are Rosenthal's other hot stove notes:
- Although Carl Crawford likely won't be a Ray past this season, the club has a chance to retain Carlos Pena. With Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee, and Paul Konerko eligible for free agency after this year, and Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder potentially hitting the open market in 2011, there are a slew of alternatives to Pena. A power-starved club like the Mariners and Orioles could make a run at Pena, but it's still possible he ends up back in Tampa Bay, assuming there's mutual interest.
- If the White Sox decide to blow up their roster, it may happen sooner rather than later, given the ten and five rights that will kick in for A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Buehrle this summer. Pierzynski, Konerko, J.J. Putz, and Andruw Jones would be the most likely trade candidates.
- Although the Padres spoke to Jermaine Dye in the offseason, they'd prefer to stick to their current, younger players. If they decide to add a bat, it's more likely to be an active outfielder than the inactive Dye.
Odds & Ends: Marlins, Pena, Jeter, Angels, Prior
Links for Thursday..
- The Marlins will likely need bullpen help before the trade deadline, writes Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
- Until closer Huston Street returns, the Rockies' late-inning relievers need improvement, writes Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post.
- After Carl Crawford was quoted as saying that he and Carlos Pena would not be returning to the Rays, Pena reiterated his desire to remain in Tampa Bay, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders how long of a contract the Yankees should offer Derek Jeter this offseason. Mr. November will celebrate his 36th birthday in June.
- The Angels will try to turn things around with the pieces that they have, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
- Chris Jenkins of the Union Tribune spoke to Mark Prior, who sees similarities between himself and Stephen Strasburg,
- Baseball's highest-ranking executives are absurdly underpaid, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Most general managers earn between $500K and $2MM annually.
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called the late Robin Roberts a "real gentleman" and a "great man", writes MLB.com's Zach Schonbrun. The legendary Phillies pitcher passed away at the age of 83.
Odds & Ends: Crawford, Raynor, Lackey, Strasburg
Links for Tuesday, as Tim Lincecum reclaims the MLB strikeout lead…
- Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times spoke to Crawford, who said he was misquoted in the upcoming Sports Illustrated piece mentioned below. "Nothing's changed, no decisions," he said. "I don't know what Carlos [Pena] is doing.''
- Pirates' GM Neil Huntington told Chuck Finder of The Pittsburgh Post Gazette that he tried to made a deal with the Marlins that would allow Rule 5 pick John Raynor to remain with the Pirates, but to no avail. Raynor was returned to Florida today.
- John Lackey said he wasn't surprised when the Angels let him depart as a free agent given their trade record with letting home grown players leave, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. "It's different," said Lackey. "The way they preach the team game and giving it up for the team. That's a little suspect. You're supposed to give it up for the team. When the time comes, they might not want to give it up for you. But I totally knew that was a possibility. I was prepared for that. That's the nature of the game today."
- Stephen Strasburg has been promoted and will make his Triple A debut Friday against Freddie Freeman and the Gwinnett Braves, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson. ESPN's Rob Neyer notes that Strasburg seems to be on the Mark Prior path to the bigs, perhaps delayed a few weeks for cost savings.
- MASN's Ben Goessling says Nats 2006 first-round pick Colton Willems has decided to retire. The team has the pitcher on the restricted list in case he changes his mind.
- An upcoming Sports lllustrated piece on Carlos Pena features this quote from Carl Crawford: "This core group is going to still be together, me and Carlos are the only two guys that are going to be leaving."
- The Royals granted reliever Roman Colon his release so he can sign with the Kia Tigers of Korea, according to the team. Just three months ago, Colon and Juan Cruz were in the mix to be Joakim Soria's primary setup man. The Royals' bullpen sports an AL-worst 5.56 ERA in 81 innings.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams wouldn't rule out a fire sale at a later date, but said the team's aggressive nature will probably prevent it (Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reporting).
- ESPN's Buster Olney explains that his Saturday story about Cliff Lee being likely to reach free agency was prompted by a call Olney made to Lee's agent.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Blue Jays attempted to sign Kelly Johnson to play left field during the offseason, offering more than the $2.35MM Johnson received from Arizona. Johnson told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic in March that he strongly considered offers from the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Indians.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that the upon acquiring Javier Vazquez, the Yankees considered two 2011 draft picks part of the deal. Already, Vazquez's Type A status and arbitration offer are in question. We'll be able to give you Vazquez's exact Elias standing later this month, when Eddie Bajek makes his first pass at 2009-10 rankings.
- Dejan Kovacevic's latest article for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests the Pirates were overly optimistic about Akinori Iwamura, currently their highest-paid player.
- Click here to listen to my radio appearance on KFNS St. Louis from earlier today.
Top Trade Chips: AL East
Let's finish off our series with the toughest division in baseball…
- Blue Jays: The Jays already traded away most of their top pieces, but they still have three desirable relievers in Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Kevin Gregg. All three can become free agents after the season. There might be some interest in first baseman Lyle Overbay, who will also hit the open market after the season.
- Orioles: Considering how poorly he pitched before landing on the DL, I'm sure a large part of the Baltimore faithful wouldn't mind seeing Mike Gonzalez go. Alas, that won't happen anytime soon. There always seems to be interest in Luke Scott, who still has two more years of team control left. If they decide to sell at mid-season, Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie could find their way onto the block.
- Rays: The Rays are a player development machine, and they have enough young players to get get pretty much anyone they want. They have enough depth that they could trade one of Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez plus one of Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, or Jeremy Hellickson and not miss a beat. If they fall out of it and decide to sell, it doesn't get much better than Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, and Carlos Pena. I believe the term is "stacked."
- Red Sox: Boston has held onto Clay Buchholz for this long, but with his name appearing so frequently on the rumor circuit, it really wouldn't be surprising if they moved him for a big time player. They might still be able to find a taker for Mike Lowell, and there would be interest in Manny Delcarmen if he were made available. They did lose a valuable chip when Junichi Tazawa went down with Tommy John surgery.
- Yankees: They seem unwilling to trade either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, so their best chip is the semi-blocked Jesus Montero. Of course, the Yankees have the ability to absorb even the ugliest of contracts, so maybe we should consider that their biggest trade chip.
Cafardo On Gonzalez, Oswalt, Crawford, Granderson
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is now on Twitter, under the handle @nickcafardo, so be sure to follow him. In the meantime, Cafardo also has a new column up for the Globe, in which he addresses the possibility of an Adrian Gonzalez trade and touches on a few other hot stove topics. Let's check out the highlights….
- Cafardo isn't bullish on the Red Sox' chances of acquiring Gonzalez, noting that a trade would deplete Boston's farm system. Plus, they should face stiff competition from teams like the Mariners and Orioles.
- The consensus among a few baseball people who spoke to Cafardo is that Padres GM Jed Hoyer will field trade offers for Gonzalez but won't necessarily deal the slugger. The situation could be similar to the Jays shopping Roy Halladay at last year's deadline, when Toronto wasn't sufficiently blown away by any offer.
- The Padres are more likely to move Chris Young and Heath Bell.
- Assuming the Sox don't land Gonzalez, Cafardo wonders if Carlos Pena might be an offseason target for Theo Epstein.
- Roy Oswalt could be an attractive trade chip for the Astros, given the lack of top starting pitchers that will be available during the season. Cafardo thinks Houston will move their ace if they have to, adding that "it looks like they may have to."
- The Brewers' extension of Yovani Gallardo is a good sign that they'll be aggressive in attempting to lock up Prince Fielder, though it will likely take a Mark Teixeira-esque contract to get it done.
- Cafardo's "dark horse candidate" in this winter's Carl Crawford sweepstakes? The Angels.
- The Red Sox looked into acquiring Curtis Granderson to replace Jason Bay, but were outbid by the Yankees.
Rays Notes: Desmond Jennings, Carlos Pena
Talking to Jim Bowden of MLB Home Plate (Twitter link), Rays Senior VP of Baseball Operations Gerry Hunsicker said it would take extraordinary circumstances for top prospect Desmond Jennings to play in the Majors this year. Jennings is regarded by most as the sixth-best prospect in the game, and it seemed quite possible that he'd muscle his way into the outfield picture this summer. If Jennings is expected to remain in Triple A, perhaps Carl Crawford is less likely to be traded (although maybe a Crawford trade qualifies as an extraordinary circumstance).
Both Crawford and Carlos Pena will be eligible for free agency after the season, and Hunsicker told Bowden it will be very difficult to retain both. Rays owner Stuart Sternberg is on record saying, "We're going to do everything we can to make sure [Crawford] stays here longer." And Rays president Matt Silverman said the team is currently focused on Crawford, with talks ongoing. That doesn't necessarily make Pena a midseason trade candidate, as the Rays need his bat to contend. Pena told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times today that he hopes to stay with the Rays beyond 2010 and is extremely grateful for the opportunity no matter what happens.
Rays Links: Soriano, Crawford, Pena, Branyan
Rays links are plentiful this afternoon…
- Rays owner Stuart Sternberg talked to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times about impending free agent Carl Crawford: "We're going to do everything we can to make sure he stays here longer."
- Sternberg told MLB.com's Bill Chastain that the Rays wouldn't normally spend $7.25MM on a reliever, so they plan on having "a little fun" with Rafael Soriano this season.
- Topkin says the Rays also hope to retain Carlos Pena, though Dave Cameron of FanGraphs feels that a Russell Branyan signing could set the stage for a midseason Pena trade. Cameron wonders if it might be too risky for the Rays to offer Pena arbitration even if he has a solid 2010, given the 2011 salary he could receive. For what it's worth, Pena just made Type A status for the 2008-09 seasons at 73.750 points.
- ESPN's Jayson Stark writes about the Rays' two biggest additions: closer Rafael Soriano, and potentially a full season of Wade Davis.
- Check out our Rays Offseason In Review from Wednesday.