Clayton Kershaw

West Notes: Kershaw, Pressly, Diamondbacks

By Kyle Downing | September 22, 2018 at 4:47pm CDT

“There is no finality in Clayton Kershaw’s future. There is uncertainty,” Bill Shaikin writes in an article for the LA Times. While he’s hardly the first to think along those lines as the future Hall of Famer approaches a decision about his opt-out clause, Shaikin’s words do an excellent job of setting the tone for a conversation that’s likely quite uncomfortable for a large chunk of the fan base: Did Clayton Kershaw just make his last regular season start at Dodger Stadium?

For Kershaw’s part, he was transparent about his feelings on the mound. “I would be lying if I said it didn’t cross my mind,” Kershaw said. When asked whether or not he’d decided to opt out of the remaining $65MM on his contract, the lefty simply said “no”. Dodgers chairman Mark Walter reportedly confirmed on Friday that he still hopes to make Kershaw a Dodger “for life”. The city of Los Angeles will probably be monitoring any rumors and hints about the situation quite closely in the coming weeks as the deadline for their franchise icon’s decision advances.

More news from out west…

An interesting piece by Ron Wolschleger at Beyond the Box Score details the success of Astros deadline acquisition Ryan Pressly, and opines that he might be their best reliever. Highlighted in the piece are Pressly’s 0.90 ERA and 36.6% strikeout rate since joining the Astros. His 1.60 FIP also ranks second in the majors since the deadline. Mentioned in the piece as one potential catalyst for Pressly’s production surge after coming to Houston are changes in his pitch selection and sequencing, particularly the ditching of his two-seam fastball.
With the Diamondbacks having plummeted out of the postseason picture, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic looks ahead to the offseason and lists the club’s 11 pending free agents and ranks them in order of how good a fit they are to be re-signed by Arizona. Interestingly enough, Buchanan opines that 35-year-old catcher Jeff Mathis is the best bet to be kept, in no small part due to his defensive prowess, game-calling abilities and positive clubhouse presence. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Buchanan doesn’t expect the Diamondbacks to keep right-hander Randall Delgado in the fold for 2019, citing his poor overall results on the season.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract

By Jeff Todd | September 11, 2018 at 2:53pm CDT

The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.

If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.

All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.

Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.

For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?

Guess Clayton Kershaw's Next Contract

$90MM to $125MM 27.10% (2,185 votes)

$125MM to $175MM 26.41% (2,129 votes)

$65MM (opt-in) 19.88% (1,603 votes)

$175MM+ 16.10% (1,298 votes)

$65MM to $90MM 10.51% (847 votes)

Total Votes: 8,062

2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

By Steve Adams | September 7, 2018 at 11:53am CDT

With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

Dodgers Activate Clayton Kershaw

By Kyle Downing | June 23, 2018 at 4:33pm CDT

The Dodgers announced today that they’ve officially activated legendary southpaw Clayton Kershaw from the disabled list, optioning lefty Adam Liberatore to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

It was reported yesterday that Kershaw was set to forego a rehab assignment and start tonight’s game. The three-time Cy Young Award-winner has only made eight starts to date this season, which haven’t been quite on par with his usual standards; the lefty owns a 3.47 FIP in 2018 to go with 53 strikeouts against 11 walks in 49 innings. While still respectable, that FIP would be Kershaw’s highest mark since his rookie season in 2008.

The 30-year-old will finally get a chance to re-establish his value in advance of a potential bout with free agency. It’s widely-known that Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract in order to test the open market, but a hurler who has long been known as the most dominant in the game suddenly has an injury reputation after missing time in each of the past three seasons with back issues. How he performs the rest of the season and whether he stays healthy will both have an impact on whether the future Hall of Famer ends up a free agent at the end of the year.

Liberatore has spent his entire major-league career with the Dodgers, pitching in parts of each season since his debut in 2015. He owns a lifetime ERA of 3.55 in the majors to go along with 9.44 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9. His control appears to have gotten away from him this season, however, as that walk rate has spiked to 5.54 BB/9 (though in an admittedly small 13-inning sample size). Liberatore has pitched fewer than one inning in eight of his 17 appearances on the season.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Cespedes, Strasburg, Robles, Machado

By Jeff Todd | June 22, 2018 at 11:29pm CDT

In a surprise move, the Dodgers announced today that ace Clayton Kershaw will start the club’s game tomorrow, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. Kershaw, who is coming back from a lower back strain, had been scheduled for a rehab outing but evidently felt up to the task of jumping back to the bigs after missing about three weeks of action. That’s promising news for the Los Angeles organization, which will hope that the southpaw can not only avoid a third trip to the DL this year, but return to form after a less-than-dominant (by his lofty standards, at least) start to the season.

NL West Notes: Pollock, Miller, Hand, Kershaw, Cingrani

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | June 20, 2018 at 9:42am CDT

Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock is not healing quite as quickly as might have been hoped, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports, though there has been some progress made. Given that he still hasn’t been cleared to swing, and will need some time on rehab assignment thereafter, it seems reasonable now to expect that Pollock won’t return until some time in early-to-mid-July. He’s set for a CT scan Monday. The slow progress, clearly, is not great news for the Snakes, though the club has halted an earlier slide in the standings. and played better baseball of late. They’re currently leading a resurgent Dodgers club by 1.5 games for the division lead.

Here’s more from Arizona and the rest of the NL West:

As Piecoro further covers (both in that article and on Twitter), it seems that D-backs righty Shelby Miller is nearly ready to be activated from the 60-day DL. He has managed only a 4.66 ERA in four rehab outings, but is carrying an excellent 28:6 K/B ratio over his 19 1/3 minor-league frames thus far. Miller isn’t listed as one of the four starting pitchers for the upcoming weekend series against the Pirates, however, and manager Torey Lovullo didn’t provide an update on what is next for the right-hander just yet. Fellow righty Matt Koch allowed at least five runs for the fourth time in seven starts last night, though, so logically speaking, the D-backs could bump him from the starting five to accommodate Miller’s return.
Much as we’ve heard in prior periods of trade interest, the Padres seem disinclined to offer up closer Brad Hand for less than a compelling return. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, via Twitter, the “likely asking price” on Hand will be a “young everyday player.” Morosi gives the example of Rafael Devers, should the Red Sox come calling, but there’s no evident reason to read that as more than a hypothetical. If anything, it seems the report stands for the proposition that the Friars are not going to be particularly amenable to considering packages consisting of multiple, far-off prospects. We recently rated Hand as one of the top ten players to watch at the trade deadline, but noted that the San Diego organization has little reason to simply take what it can get for a player who is under affordable control for a few more seasons after signing an appealingly priced extension over the winter.
Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is slated to return after one single rehab start, manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (via Twitter). There’s more uncertainty surrounding Kershaw than ever before, just as he prepares for an offseason decision as to whether to opt out of the $65MM guarantee left on his contract, as Tim Dierkes discussed in his latest version of MLBTR’s 2018-19 free agent power rankings. Whatever Kershaw ultimately decides — to head onto the open market, work something else out with the Dodgers, or simply not opt out — will be dictated in no small part by his health the rest of the way. His showing over the next few weeks will also have a major influence over the club’s deadline efforts.
Meanwhile, there’s less promising news on Dodgers lefty Tony Cingrani, also via Gurnick (on Twitter). Cingrani felt something in his shoulder last week and has had his rehab efforts slowed down for the time being. There’s no timetable on his return to the L.A. bullpen, creating even further uncertainty on the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Cingrani was lights-out for the Dodgers following a trade from the Reds last season, and while he’s been less effective thus far in 2018, his overall body of work since donning Dodger Blue has resulted in a 3.89 ERA and an impressive 64-to-12 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.

Dennis Santana Diagnosed With Rotator Cuff Strain

By Jeff Todd | June 8, 2018 at 7:53pm CDT

7:53pm: The team is now calling Santana’s injury a right rotator cuff strain, Gurnick tweets.

6:43pm: Dodgers righty Dennis Santana has been diagnosed with a torn lat, manager Dave Roberts told reports including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (Twitter links). In related moves, relievers Pat Venditte and Adam Liberatore are joining the active roster, while Brock Stewart was optioned.

Roberts also provided updates on a few other hurlers (via Gurnick; all links to Twitter). Righty Kenta Maeda is on track for a potential return next week, while southpaw reliever Tony Cingrani has been diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain that isn’t believed to be serious. As for ace Clayton Kershaw, Roberts says his ailing back is currently symptom-free, which seems a promising note at an early stage of his recocvery.

The most important news here involves Santana, the 22-year-old who was just brought up for his first MLB action. Entering the season, there was no real indication that he’d be called upon this soon to play a role in the majors. But even as he worked to a 2.54 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in ten outings in the upper minors, the big league staff was beset by injuries.

It’s not known how long Santana will likely be sidelined. Roberts indicated that there’s further medical assessment to be done before that will be clear. But it seems reasonable to anticipate a fairly lengthy absence. Santana will accrue MLB service time while he’s on the disabled list. He’ll also occupy a 40-man spot unless and until he’s moved to the 60-day DL.

Dodgers Place Clayton Kershaw On 10-Day DL

By Jeff Todd | June 1, 2018 at 6:06pm CDT

6:06pm: Manager Dave Roberts suggests that there’s at least a preliminary expectation that Kershaw will miss over a month of action, Moura tweets.

5:22pm: Star Dodgers hurler Clayton Kershaw returned from the disabled list to start yesterday, but he’s now headed right back to the shelf, as Pedro Moura of The Athletic was among those to indicate on Twitter and the team has now announced. Kershaw has been diagnosed with a lower back strain, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

It’s really not surprising to hear that Kershaw will need at least at least a brief additional respite. He reported a tight back yesterday that required an MRI and kept him from traveling with the club. During his five innings of action, Kershaw never topped 90 mph with his fastball, which is hardly a promising sign.

At the moment, there’s no firm indication as to the seriousness of Kershaw’s new injury concern. His prior DL stint this year was for biceps tendinitis, but he has dealt with back troubles in the past two years, including a five-week absence last year for an injury with the same description as this one. Until we learn more, though, there’s no way to know how long Kershaw will be down. And the length of the absence will surely be tied to his progress.

Kershaw is hardly the Dodgers’ only injured starter, which complicates matters in the near term. The club just brought up youngster Dennis Santana for his first taste of the majors to help account for the missing arms. Now, righty Brock Stewart will be recalled to take the open spot on the active roster.

Clayton Kershaw To Undergo MRI On Back

By Jeff Todd | May 31, 2018 at 9:59pm CDT

Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw threw five useful innings today in his return from the DL, but the outing did not end quite as hoped. He’s headed for an MRI after experiencing back tightness during the outing, skipper Dave Roberts tells reporters including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links).

Though the outlooks remains entirely unknown, it has already been decided that Kershaw will not accompany the team on its upcoming road trip to Denver. That’s not surprising given the nature of the problem, to be sure, but neither would it be a shock to see Kershaw end up going back on the DL if there’s any concern at all about his health.

This sort of uncertain, early injury news arises with some frequency, but the backdrop here is hardly common. Kershaw, who had been out with biceps tendinitis, has dealt with back problems in recent years. The health of his back was, entering the present season, perhaps the only real question facing the game’s greatest active pitcher.

The stakes are high for all involved. For the Dodgers, the presumption of a healthy Kershaw was a key factor in the team’s pre-season designation by many as a favorite to return to the World Series. With a middling start to the season, he’s all the more important. Meanwhile, baseball’s preeminent southpaw is pitching in advance of an anticipated first entry onto the free-agent market at season’s end. He has long been expected to opt out of the final two years and $65MM of the extension he signed back in 2014.

Clearly, the full picture is not yet known. But there are signs both concerning and somewhat promising. Kershaw had already shown reduced fastball velocity before hitting the DL, averaging 92.1 mph with his four-seamer to open the year. Though he mustered five innings of one-run ball this evening, he was topping out at just 90 mph — quite a notable drop-off. That said, the balky back offers something of an explanation. In his comment after the game, Kershaw suggested that the back issue is more comparable to the less-serious problems he dealt with last year than those that set him back for a longer stretch in the prior campaign, as DiGiovanna notes on Twitter.

For now, it’s enough to say that there are more questions facing Kershaw than anyone hoped for when the season got underway. Even before tonight’s outing, he was allowing more homers than usual (1.43 per nine) while his swinging-strike rate sat at 11.7%, well off the level he had worked (14.1% or better) over the prior four seasons. The results have still largely been there, as they were again tonight, but it is certainly concerning that he’s again headed in for an examination after only just making it back to the majors.

Dodgers Activate Clayton Kershaw

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2018 at 3:15pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that they’ve reinstated left-hander Clayton Kershaw from the disabled list and created a roster spot by optioning switch-pitcher Pat Venditte to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Kershaw, who’s been out since May 1 due to biceps tendinitis in his left arm, will start tonight’s game against the visiting Phillies.

The three-time NL Cy Young winner and five-time NL ERA leader will return to the Dodgers’ rotation just one day after right-hander Kenta Maeda landed on the disabled list with a right hip strain. It’s been an ongoing struggle for the Dodgers to keep their starting staff healthy so far this season, as Maeda is joined on the disabled list by lefties Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Kershaw’s absence proved to be shorter than his DL trips for back injuries in each of the past two seasons.

Kershaw will step back into the starting mix alongside Alex Wood, rookie sensation Walker Buehler and the breakout righty Ross Stripling. While that may not be a rotation mix the Dodgers anticipated having to lean upon in 2018, the quality of that group serves as a testament to the depth that the Dodgers seem to have a knack for cultivating on a yearly basis.

While the Dodgers’ early struggles garnered plenty of national media attention, they’ve quieted the narrative that their season was on the brink of being lost by rattling off 10 wins in their past 13 contests. Los Angeles is still three games south of the .500 mark, but the collapse of the former NL West-leading Diamondbacks has opened a door for the Dodgers, who now sit 3.5 games back from the Rockies, who suddenly find themselves in first place.

A healthy Kershaw will go a long way toward continuing their recent success, though there are clearly some longer-term implications here for both Kershaw and the team. Kershaw has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years of his contract at season’s end, and he’s all but certain to do so. While the Dodgers clearly possess the financial firepower to match or top virtually any offer another team can make to Kershaw, the price of a new contract with the Dodgers or another club will be impacted in no small part by his ability to put this injury behind him and return to his status as one of the game’s elite arms.

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