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Dansby Swanson

Braves To Promote Dansby Swanson

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The Braves will promote top shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson tomorrow, according to a team announcement. President of baseball operations John Hart says that the youngster will be in the starting lineup tomorrow, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets.

Jul 10, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; USA infielder Dansby Swanson at bat in the second inning during the All Star Game futures baseball game at PetCo Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Swansons promotion comes on the heels of the team’s trade of shortstop Erick Aybar to the Tigers. That deal brought in a prospect and also opened a spot for Swanson to receive his first taste of the majors. For the time being, at least, he won’t be accompanied by hopeful future double-play partner Ozzie Albies.

Mid-season top-prospect lists all agreed that Swanson is one of the ten best pre-MLB assets in baseball. MLB.com (#5), Baseball America (#7), and Baseball Prospectus (#10) all concurred in that regard.

Regardless of his precise placement, Swanson looks to be a key future piece for the rebuilding Braves, who acquired him — along with outfielder Ender Inciarte and righty Aaron Blair — in an offseason swap for righty Shelby Miller. That trade seemed like a score at the time and has further tilted in Atlanta’s favor as Miller has struggled. Still, it remains to be seen how the trio of quality assets will perform for the Braves — though they have plenty of seasons to come to provide value.

[Related: Updated Braves Depth Chart]

Swanson was always seen as the headliner of that deal. The number one overall pick of the 2015 draft out of Vanderbilt, he came to Atlanta with expectations of both a swift rise and strong future value. Both he and Albies are shortstops by trade, though it seems the latter will likely end up playing second when both reach the majors.

Though he has moved as quickly through the system as had been forecasted, Swanson hasn’t dominated the minor league ranks to the extent of Alex Bregman of the Astros — another SEC shortstop who was taken one pick behind Swanson but beat him to the majors. Swanson made short work of the High-A level, but owns a solid but not overwhelming .261/.342/.402 slash in his 377 plate appearances thus far at Double-A.

Still, the Braves felt that Swanson was ready to skip the highest level of the minors altogether. And prospect watchers seem to agree with the optimism, grading him as an above-average future big leaguer in virtually all aspects of the game. An advanced approach, good pop, some base stealing ability, and a sure glove with good physical tools give Swanson a full arsenal with which to work. Though he isn’t a true standout in any area, he comes with both a solid floor and the ceiling of a perennially above-average regular.

By making the move now, the Braves will allow Swanson to accumulate 47 days of service time. Assuming he is able to play well enough to lock down the starting job at short for the 2017 campaign — which is surely the club’s hope — then he’d first reach arbitration eligibility in advance of the 2020 season while qualifying for free agency after 2022.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Braves, Hughes, Cardinals, Votto

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Two top Braves prospects are inching closer to the Majors, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. The team has promoted Ozzie Albies from Double-A Mississippi to Triple-A Gwinnett and fellow shortstop Dansby Swanson from Class A+ Carolina to Mississippi. Albies was already a highly-regarded prospect heading into the season, but he’s surpassed expectations by skipping over Class A+ and batting .369/.442/.512 at Mississippi at the ridiculously young age of 19. Swanson, meanwhile, has hit brilliantly in his first full pro season, batting .333/.441/.526. The former Vanderbilt infielder and top overall 2015 draft pick appears to be on the fast track to the big leagues, where he could eventually pair with Albies in the Braves middle infield, likely with one of them moving from shortstop to second. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Pirates have announced that righty Jared Hughes has been reinstated from the 15-day DL, and that they’ve cleared space for him on the active roster by optioning fellow Rob Scahill to Triple-A Indianapolis. Hughes had missed the entire season to this point with a lat strain. The return of the ground-ball specialist should provide a boost to a Bucs bullpen that has struggled to this point, posting a 4.48 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and an ugly 4.5 BB/9 thus far and ranking as below replacement level as a unit.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who had thumb surgery in March, could be set to begin a rehab assignment in about three weeks, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. That timetable means Peralta might return to the team early in June. Mozeliak notes, though, that the team will still find ways to use rookie Aledmys Diaz, who’s batting a remarkable .420/.452/.739 while playing mostly shortstop so far this season.
  • Reds first baseman Joey Votto is in the midst of the worst offensive month of his career, as FanGraphs’ Owen Watson notes. Votto is batting just .238/.330/.325, with an unusually high strikeout rate (23.4%) and low walk rate (11.7%). He’s also been very pull-happy at the plate, an approach Watson suggests might not work for him. He’s been pulling the ball so much in part because opposing pitchers are throwing inside against him, trying to get him to hit into defensive shifts. Votto likely needs to adjust to that strategy, and Watson seems confident that he will.

NL East Notes: Amaro, Asche, Altherr, Span, Braves

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Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., now the Red Sox’ first base coach, discussed the perception that his regime in Philadelphia was well behind the curve in terms of analytics in an interview with David Laurila of Fangraphs. Amaro makes the claim that while his club may not have been as progressive as some of the most aggressive adopters of statistical analysis, the Phillies may also have been more up to speed than they let on. “You can’t ever deny the numbers,” said Amaro.“That’s true for every GM and every baseball person, regardless of whether you’re ‘old school’ or ‘new school.’ … I’ve always believed in analytics. I just didn’t make it all public (in Philadelphia). I thought it was more of a competitive advantage for me to keep our thought-process about analytics closer to the vest. … I didn’t think it was anybody’s business but our own as to how we evaluated.” That is, of course, a fairly bold claim to make, especially in the face of years of stories to the contrary, which highlighted the Phillies’ adherence to more traditional means of evaluation. Amaro goes on to discuss the balance between data and scouting as well as new data from Statcast and evaluating players at different age levels. Regardless of whether one believes his initial claims (and I’d expect that most will not), the issue the comments raise is interesting, as there certainly could be some value to keeping operational methodology close to the vest for a big league organization. The interview is well worth taking a few minutes to read.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Cody Asche is in danger of opening the season on the Phillies’ disabled list, writes Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com. The former third base prospect, who converted to the outfield last year to accommodate Maikel Franco, was originally shut down two weeks ago due to an oblique issue, and an MRI conducted on Wednesday showed little progress. Asche is battling a Grade 1 strain in his right oblique, and manager Pete Mackanin says that the 25-year-old is still not cleared to hit. Aaron Altherr’s unfortunate injury — he’ll miss up to six months following wrist surgery — seemed to have created a window for Asche to get some more playing time, but his own health problems could now stand in the way of that. As a result, Lawrence notes, Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel’s chances of sticking with the club become even stronger.
  • Phillies GM Matt Klentak implied to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that it’s unlikely he’ll look outside the organization to replace Altherr. “We owe it to the guys in camp to give them that chance to fill that spot,” said Klentak. “We’ll survey the market. If there’s something out there, we’ll explore it, but we feel pretty good about the guys we have here.” As Zolecki notes, the Phillies do have top priority on the waiver wire, so they could add an outfielder late in camp if one becomes available in that manner. In addition to Goeddel, the Phillies have Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos Darnell Sweeney and Darin Ruf as 40-man options, with veteran David Lough in camp as a non-roster invitee.
  • Denard Span, who signed a three-year, $31MM contract with the Giants this offseason, spoke fondly of his time with the Nationals to James Wagner of the Washington Post in a recent interview. Within, the 31-year-old Span reveals that he and former agent Joe Urbon of CAA Sports approached the Nationals about a potential extension back in 2014, but the team wasn’t interested at the time. Despite the fact that his interest was spurned, Span had nothing but glowing things to say about the organization. It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Nats weren’t keen on a long-term deal, as Bryce Harper is a fixture in the outfield, Jayson Werth is locked up through 2017, and the team undoubtedly hoped at the time (and still hopes) that Michael A. Taylor can shift into the center field slot as a more cost-effective long-term option.
  • Braves general manager John Coppolella tells MLB.com’s Mark Bowman that he’s not ruling out Major League debuts for top outfield prospect Mallex Smith or shortstops Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies in 2016. “They have all been very impressive, and I don’t think they could have shown any better than they have,” said Coppolella of the trio’s first week of Grapefruit League action. Coppolella went on to say that service time implications (i.e. delaying a player’s free agency) won’t be a factor for him if a player deems that he is ready for MLB action in 2016. “You can always sign young guys to long-term deals,” said the GM. “Sometimes, when you bring up prospects early, they’re more willing to sign long-term because they know you didn’t hold them hostage or try to manipulate them in any way.”

NL East Notes: Freeman, Peterson, Swanson, Groome, Storen

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The Braves concluded their final FanFest at Turner Field earlier today, writes Jon Cooper for MLB.com. The club is set to open SunTrust Park next season. In the meantime, they’ll try to rapidly rebuild in time for the new park. Here’s more about the Braves and other NL East clubs:

  • Freddie Freeman is finally pain free, he told reporters including Cooper. The lefty first baseman has dealt with a slow to heal right wrist injury. He managed a career worst 481 plate appearances last season, although he still hit reasonably well – .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs. While many thought the Braves would trade Freeman, he’s still just 26. If the club turns around as quickly as they aim to, he’ll still be in his prime.
  • Another injured Brave, Jace Peterson, is also once again pain free, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson injured his thumb in late May and played through the injury for the remainder of the season. His .265/.340/.318 line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when he sustained the injury. However, it was slightly better than the .230/.305/.341 slash he put up over the rest of the season. Peterson has an interesting blend of skills. He could eventually develop into a sneaky-good utility player. He’s currently atop the depth chart at second base.
  • Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez hinted that we’ll see top prospect Dansby Swanson sooner rather than later, per a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Braves shortstop Erick Aybar is under contract through the end of this season. In my view, the club may be hoping Swanson can advanced quickly enough to join the team in early 2017 – if not sooner. After signing with the Diamondbacks last summer, Swanson had 99 plate appearances in Low-A, hitting .289/.394/.482. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the makings of a fast moving prospect. He was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona.
  • Former Phillies ace Cole Hamels recently had the opportunity to meet with potential first draft pick Jason Groome, writes Matt Gelb of Philly.com. Of course, the Phillies hold that first overall selection and are said to be considering Groome. The 17-year-old New Jersey native already possesses mid-90s velocity with a promising curve and changeup. Hamels had simply advice for Groome: “stay healthy and you are going to be golden.” Of course, Hamels also had some more actionable advice. He offered the contact information of a motivational speaker he regularly talks to before starts.
  • Earlier today on MLB Network Radio, Drew Storen’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen said he and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had a “unique level of transparency” following the trade for Jonathan Papelbon. The deal was not the first time the Nationals opted to replace Storen as the closer. The meaning behind Van Wagenen’s comment is somewhat vague. Presumably, both agent and GM had a candid talk about Storen’s role in the organization. Now Storen is turning the page as a member of the Blue Jays.

NL East Notes: Prospects, Phillies, Giles, Mets

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Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

  • The top three prospects involved in trades this offseason were all acquired by the Braves, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes.  Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair sit atop Cooper’s ranking of the top 25 prospects who were dealt this winter.  Swanson and Blair came to Atlanta as part of the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona while Newcomb was part of the package that came to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons deal with the Angels.
  • With the Phillies embarking on a full-fledged rebuild, it wouldn’t have made sense for the club to sign a major free agent simply in the name of boosting attendance, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes as part of a reader mailbag.  The organization has shown that it will spend heavily to support a contender, so Zolecki doesn’t doubt that the big signings will follow once a young core of talent is again in place.
  • Zolecki also gives his take on the Ken Giles trade, opining that the Phillies did well in landing five young starting pitchers given the cost of pitching in today’s game.  Developing even one mid-range arm out of the quintet will provide the Phils with more value than having a star closer would in a rebuilding season.  When the Phillies are ready to contend again, Zolecki notes, it will also be much easier (and cheaper) to find another closer than it would be to add rotation help.
  • The Mets haven’t yet decided on which internal candidates will receive Spring Training invitations to their big league camp, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports (via Twitter).  In a follow-up tweet, Rubin gives his take on which players will be invited.
  • In NL East news from earlier today, the Braves are trying to trade at least one of Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher.

Quick Hits: Soler, Lucroy, Swanson, Chen

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In a radio interview on The 670 Score’s “Inside The Clubhouse” show, Theo Epstein said the Cubs are committed to Jorge Soler as a big part of their roster, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  “We are putting our stock into his future,” Epstein said.  “Barring anything [an overwhelming trade offer], he knows to ignore all the trade rumors and take it as a compliment.”  Epstein praised Soler’s hitting potential and his offseason training, as Soler “is down to 225 [pounds] and is working hard on his quickness and flexibility” to improve his right field defense.  The Cubs could add a defense-first backup outfielder, Epstein hinted, which probably isn’t a surprise given Soler’s inexperience and the questions about whether or not Kyle Schwarber can handle left field.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Brewers don’t want to sell low on Jonathan Lucroy in the wake of his underwhelming 2015 season, though they could be taking a risk by waiting to make a trade, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes in a piece for FOX Sports.  If Lucroy’s concussion and injury history continues to diminish his ability, Milwaukee will have missed its window to recoup significant value for the former All-Star.  Midseason deals for catchers are also somewhat uncommon, as it’s somewhat hard for a new catcher to instantly develop a rapport with pitchers.
  • The Braves targeted Dansby Swanson even before they created room at short by dealing Andrelton Simmons, GM John Coppolella tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  “We’ve been in talks with Arizona since the end of the 2015 season,” Coppolella said. “We hoped to get Swanson, but we didn’t know if, or how, the deal would materialize. We saw him as a fit for us, whether we made the Simmons trade or not. We just want really good players and he’s a really good player.”
  • Wei-Yin Chen may have the most value of any remaining free agent pitcher, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes, as he has posted comparable numbers to Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmermann and probably won’t cost as much.  Of course, Chen and his agent Scott Boras are looking for healthy compensation for the southpaw’s services in the form of a five-year, $100MM contract.
  • While opt-out clauses are usually considered to provide little benefit to a team, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber notes that there’s certainly upside if a club can avoid paying big money to a player outside of his prime years.  For instance, Lauber reports that had the Red Sox been successful in obtaining Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers in the 2003-04 offseason, they had no intention of re-signing him after he opted out of his deal (as expected) after the 2007 season.  The Yankees, who did deal for A-Rod and then re-signed him to a whopping 10-year, $275MM contract after 2007, have surely regretted not letting Rodriguez walk when they had the chance.
  • Blue Jays director of analytics Joe Sheehan is profiled by the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy, who notes that Sheehan’s promotion to the newly-created position is a sign of the team’s increased focus on analytics under Mark Shapiro.
  • The Giants are the most likely team to sign Yoenis Cespedes, MLB.com’s Jim Duquette opines.  The Tigers, Orioles, White Sox and Angels round out Duquette’s list of Cespedes’ most likely landing spots.

Reported Asking Prices For Jose Fernandez

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TODAY: The Marlins “discussed a deal” with Arizona that would have brought back Corbin, Swanson, Inciarte, Blair, and infielder Brandon Drury, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. That deal only “collapsed” when Arizona struck its trade with the Braves, he says, and the talks could illustrate a real willingness to trade Fernandez.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports adds (Twitter links) that at some point in the talks, Miami sought a six-player return that would’ve included Corbin and three other players who played in the majors last year for Arizona.

YESTERDAY: The asking price on Jose Fernandez is known to be sky-high, but reports tonight in the wake of the D-backs’ Shelby Miller blockbuster further illustrate the unlikely nature of a Fernandez trade. According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the Marlins were working on a trade with the Diamondbacks that would’ve included Patrick Corbin and Dansby Swanson in talks for Fernandez (Twitter link). Beyond that already-steep starting point, the Marlins asked that three other prospects be included in the deal, he adds.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Repbulic tweets that the package the D-backs sent to Atlanta to pry Miller away — Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair — “would not have come close” to what the team would’ve needed to acquire Fernandez from Miami, citing D-backs officials.

Similarly, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports (also on Twitter) that the Marlins asked the Dodgers to include not one or two but all three of Julio Urias, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager in addition to another pair of players. While reports earlier today indicated that L.A. was attempting to get a third team involved to find a creative means of acquiring Fernandez, that price tag seems like such a lofty starting point that it’s tough to even imagine talks becoming serious in nature.

Many will scoff at the reported asking prices listed here, but the Marlins have little incentive to trade Fernandez now without an offer that is impossible to refuse. We also don’t know whether other pieces were in play that would’ve gone from Miami to those clubs.

Realistic asks or not, the Marlins are placing an almost unmatchable asking price on Fernandez, it would seem, which lines up with most reports from the past few days. While he’s an oft-mentioned name, the most common refrain connected to Fernandez is that the Marlins aren’t trying to move but are instead simply open to being overwhelmed by an offer for their young ace. It’s easy to forget that Fernandez is still just 23 years old — younger than NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant. And, to this point in his career, Fernandez has pitched to a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Three years of affordable control over a 23-year-old starter with that track record of dominance ranks among the most valuable commodities in all of baseball, although one can only wonder how high the asking price would’ve been had the Marlins kept Fernandez in the minors for a couple of weeks to open the 2013 season. Because Fernandez was a 20-year-old that hadn’t pitched above Class-A Advanced at the time, no one would’ve questioned the move, and Miami could have subsequently delayed Fernandez’s free agency until after the 2019 season. Instead, Fernandez received a full year of service time in 2013 and is now on track to become a free agent after 2018.

Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller

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WEDNESDAY: The teams have officially announced the deal.

TUESDAY: After more than a week of rampant speculation, the Shelby Miller blockbuster that many anticipated has arrived. The Braves on Tuesday reportedly agreed to send Miller and left-handed relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the latter of whom was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft back in June.

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Miller, 25, has been one of the hottest commodities on the trade market for the past seven to 10 days. The D-backs will control him for at least three seasons via the arbitration process — he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just under $5MM next season — and he’ll give Arizona another potent arm to pair with Patrick Corbin and newly signed ace Zack Greinke atop a dramatically improved rotation.

As many as 20 teams reportedly checked in on Miller, who will ultimately spend just one year in Atlanta after being the main piece received in last winter’s Jason Heyward blockbuster with the Cardinals. The former first-round pick and top 10 prospect enjoyed a strong season in 2015 with the Braves, compiling a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 205 2/3 innings. It should be noted, though, that Miller’s dominant overall numbers are propped up, to some extent, by an unsustainable 1.48 ERA through his first 10 starts. While Miller was still very solid after that stretch — he logged a 3.77 ERA with a 122-to-55 K/BB ratio across his final 138 1/3 frames — fielding-independent-pitching metrics peg him as more of a mid- to upper-3.00s ERA type of pitcher. Whether he looks more like the front-line arm he appeared to be in 2015 or the steady mid-rotation arm those metrics peg him to be, Miller unequivocally has value, but the Diamondbacks have indeed paid a steep price to acquire his services.

Inciarte (pictured below) is the Major League ready piece of the deal for Atlanta. He’ll bring five years of club control to the Braves and can immediately slot into center field there, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. Inciarte, 25, was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015. Inciarte is an elite defender at any of the three outfield spots; he’s amassed 52 Defensive Runs Saved in just 1972 innings at the Major League level or, if you prefer, +33.7 runs, per Ultimate Zone Rating. While he lacks much in the way of power and may see his surface-level rate stats decline by moving away from the hitters’ haven that is Phoenix’s Chase Field, Inciarte will help the Braves’ chances both in 2016 and into the next planned phase of the team’s status as contenders.

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Swanson, 22 in February, is barely six months removed from being the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. A shortstop out of Vanderbilt, Swanson spent the summer playing with Arizona’s short-season Class-A affiliate in Hillsboro, where he batted .289/.394/.482 in 22 games/99 plate appearances. His inclusion significantly enhances the deal for Atlanta, who recently parted ways with shortstop Andrelton Simmons. While Swanson won’t be ready to jump to the Majors in 2016 — at least not early on — he gives the Braves a potential Simmons replacement at some point in the 2017 or 2018 season and joins 18-year-old (19 in January) Ozhaino Albies as an elite shortstop prospect rising through the ranks of the Atlanta farm system.

MLB.com rated Swanson as the No. 10 prospect in all of Major League Baseball at the end of the season, and Swanson unsurprisingly ranked as the organization’s top prospect according to both that outlet and Baseball America. BA’s scouting report noted that Swanson has no weaknesses in his toolkit, calling him a prototypical No. 2 hitter that has 15-homer pop with plus speed and a future as a solid, if not above-average defender at shortstop. MLB.com notes that most scouts think he can stick at shortstop, adding that he has off-the-charts makeup and could be in the Majors by 2018. As a bonus for the Braves, Swanson’s Georgia roots — he attended high school in Marietta — figure to make him popular with the Atlanta fanbase.

Blair, 23, is a little more than two years removed from being a first-rounder himself (albeit, a compensatory first-round pick). Arizona selected him 36th overall in 2003, and he currently ranks 61st on MLB.com’s Top 100. BA rated him as the D-backs’ No. 2 prospect, trailing only the aforementioned Swanson. The Marshall University product split the 2015 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 2.92 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. BA notes that he has a 91-95 mph heater with heavy sink that generates plenty of grounders in addition to a curveball that misses bats and a changeup that he uses to pitch to contact. MLB.com and BA both agree that Blair is nearly big league ready and should debut in 2016, with both calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.

In addition to Miller, the D-backs will receive the 20-year-old Speier, who spent this past season pitching at Class-A, where he recorded a 2.86 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 44 innings of relief work. Speier, a 19th-round pick in 2013, is already plenty familiar with being traded. He was originally selected by Boston but traded to the Tigers a year ago (almost to the day) alongside Yoenis Cespedes in exchange for Rick Porcello. Detroit shipped him to Atlanta a couple of weeks ago in the Cameron Maybin trade, and he’s now on the move for the third time in less than three full years as a pro.

By making this trade, the Diamondbacks have exhibited their clear desire to win now. The presence of Greinke, Corbin and Miller atop their rotation gives Arizona arguably the best rotation in the National League West, but the price they’ve paid is sizable. Perhaps more notably, it continues to display that GM Dave Stewart, VP De Jon Watson and chief baseball office Tony La Russa value draft picks in a considerably different manner than a number of their baseball ops peers around the league. Arizona forfeited its 2016 first-round pick in order to sign Greinke and has now traded the 2015 top pick (Swanson) in addition to its 2014 first-rounder, Touki Toussaint, in a deal that many felt amounted to a salary dump to rid themselves of Bronson Arroyo’s contract. With this recent string of moves, the D-backs have moved three of their past four highest draft picks and foregone the right to pick 13th in next year’s draft.

Of course, Arizona will now have an impressive rotation trio to support MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the underrated A.J. Pollock, who will now probably share the outfield with David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas with Inciarte in Atlanta. The D-backs are aggressively branding the 2016 as an “evolutionary” year, and the moves they’ve made bear out the fact that the coming seasons will carry significantly greater expectations than the team has had in quite some time.

For the Braves, the move further adds to the ever-growing stockpile of young talent that president of baseball operations John Hart and GM John Coppolella have accumulated over the past calendar year. While the loss of Miller undeniably hurts the club’s pitching staff, one could potentially make the argument that the addition of Inciarte to the 2016 roster offsets much of the value the team is losing by subtracting Miller’s highly talented arm from the roster. And, adding a pair of high-impact prospects, one of whom (Blair) could make an impact as soon as 2016, further accelerates the rebuilding effort to align with the club’s stated desire of contending in 2017 — the first season of the newly constructed SunTrust Park.

The huge stockpile of minor league talent and the shedding of sizable financial commitments — Miller could potentially earn $8-9MM in 2017 depending on his 2016 results — will position Atlanta to be aggressive on both the trade and free-agent front. The Braves, after all, have just $46MM committed to four players in 2017 and only three that will be eligible for arbitration (none of whom should command anything close to a prohibitive salary).

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that Miller was going to Arizona (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that Inciarte and others were going to Atlanta (also on Twitter). The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reported that Swanson and Blair were in the deal (Twitter link).  Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reported that Speier would also go to Arizona.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reactions To The Shelby Miller Trade

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Here’s a collection of reactions to the Diamondbacks’ shocking trade of outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves for pitchers Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.

  • The Braves’ return for Miller was gigantic, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law notes that he’s a fan of Miller’s and that the trade and the Zack Greinke signing make the Diamondbacks much better next season, but that the price the Diamondbacks paid was “comically high.” Swanson is a polished and very talented college player who could move through the minors quickly, the way Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber did. Blair gets plenty of ground balls and has “a hint of Brandon Webb” to him. And Law writes that he would rather have six years of Blair or five years of Inciarte for the three years of Miller the Diamondbacks will receive.
  • The deal “looks like a clear, obvious mistake” for the Diamondbacks, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. If they can make the playoffs a few times or win a championship with Miller, the deal will have worked out well (as, Sullivan suggests, the Royals’ then-controversial trade for James Shields did). But Miller isn’t an ace, says Sullivan, and some of his impact will likely be muted by the loss of Inciarte in the outfield. And then there’s Swanson, who’s the kind of prospect who can be the main piece in a deal for an ace, and Blair. Arizona’s front office hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt that it can properly value its young players, Sullivan writes.
  • The Diamondbacks don’t care that executives around the game think the Braves won the trade in a rout, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. (“Worst trade I’ve ever seen,” said one.) The trade helps the Diamondbacks become contenders, and with Miller joining a core that includes Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, they’re too good to become next year’s Padres — a team that swings for the fences but misses spectacularly.
  • Swanson joins Adrian Gonzalez and Shawn Abner as the only first overall draft picks to be traded while still in the minors by the teams that drafted them, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo writes. (Gonzalez, the No. 1 pick in 2000, was one of three players the Marlins traded for Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal was a lopsided one on paper, but Urbina did help the Marlins win the World Series that year.) Swanson’s situation is unusual in that he could be traded at all — it’s been just six months since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the first place. Last December, the Padres agreed to trade Trea Turner to the Nationals as part of the Wil Myers deal, but due to a rule that draftees could not be traded until a year after they signed, he had to remain in the Padres organization until June. MLB changed that rule so that newly drafted players could be traded after the World Series, and Swanson is just the second player to be traded under those circumstances, following pitcher Logan Allen, who went from Boston to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal.

NL West Notes: D-Backs, Dahl, Upton, Padres, Dodgers

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After suffering a concussion during a simulated game and missing three weeks, 2015 first overall draft pick Dansby Swanson is ready for his first professional game.  MLB.com’s Chad Thornburg reports that Swanson will play tonight for the Diamondbacks’ Class-A affiliate in Hillsboro.  Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks’ trades of Oliver Perez and Cliff Pennington both came together rather quickly, GM Dave Stewart told Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com.  Stewart hadn’t had any talks with the Astros or Blue Jays, respectively, about either player prior to the July 31 trade deadline.  Stewart doesn’t expect to make any more deals in August, though “I didn’t think I was going to make those…. You never know.”
  • Baseball America’s Jack Etkin spoke with Rockies director of player development Zach Wilson about the frightening early-season injury to top outfield prospect David Dahl and the decision Dahl made to have his spleen removed following an outfield collision (subscription required). “The best thing for David’s life was to get that spleen out of there,” said Wilson, who went on to add that the splenectomy has allowed Dahl to play without fear. Dahl, who lacerated his spleen and suffered a concussion in the collision, would have had to play the rest of his career with a protective covering and would have been at risk of rupturing the spleen in the event of another collision. As Etkin notes, that’s a frightening proposition for a “hellbent” player like Dahl, who does not shy away from the outfield wall when roaming the outfield. Dahl is hitting .284/.301/.432 in 86 plate appearances since rejoining the Rockies’ Double-A affiliate.
  • The Padres will take a shot at re-signing Justin Upton this winter, GM A.J. Preller told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom. “He’s made a very positive impression here,” said Preller. “We’re going to sit down in the offseason and see what we can do with him.” As Bloom notes, though the Padres haven’t panned out as they’d hoped, the team still has a core in place which can be built upon in future seasons, and improved ticket sales could help boost the team’s payroll heading into a season in which the Padres are set to host the All-Star Game.
  • The Dodgers’ July pitching acquisitions haven’t worked out whatsoever to this point, writes ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon. Though Luis Avilan has tossed four reasonably effective relief innings, Mat Latos and Alex Wood have both struggled, while Jim Johnson has reverted to his disastrous 2014 form. As Saxon points out, Johnson did have very strong numbers in Atlanta, so it’s tough to fault the team for targeting him. He also points out that Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi must be a fan of Johnson, as he’s now been part of two front offices that have traded for Johnson in two years.
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