NL Central Notes: Wicks, Junis, Carlson
The Cubs are in for their second bullpen game in as many days tomorrow, as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune was among those to relay that left-hander Jordan Wicks has been scratched from his scheduled start tomorrow due to forearm tightness. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski will start the game in Wicks’s place just three days after pitching 2 1/3 scoreless frames against the Astros Thursday afternoon.
It’s not currently clear how serious Wicks’s injury is or if a stint on the injured list will be required, but a lengthy absence would be a major blow to the Cubs. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has pitched solidly for the Cubs through five starts this season, posting a roughly league average 4.70 ERA and a much stronger 3.25 FIP in 23 innings of work. An trip to the shelf for Wicks would further exacerbate Chicago’s early-season injury woes. Hurlers Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Julian Merryweather are all currently on the injured list (though the former may be back soon) while the positional corps has lost both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger from its outfield mix.
The laundry list of injuries has left the Cubs somewhat thin in terms of rotation options, with both Ben Brown and now Wesneski stepping in to make starts after previously pitching out of the bullpen for the big league club. Chicago signed veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to a minor league deal in earlier this month, and the 33-year-old righty and lefty Thomas Pannone among the club’s top non-roster depth options for the rotation.
More from the NL Central…
- Brewers right-hander Jakob Junis suffered a scary incident earlier this week when he was struck by an errant fly ball during the club’s pregame workouts prior to a game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, Junis is back traveling with the team and spoke to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The right-hander noted that he underwent an MRI and CT scan, both of which came back clean, before he was released from the hospital. Now that he’s back with the team, it appears Junis is set to continue rehabbing from the shoulder impingement that has cost him most of the season to this point. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently indicated that the club may look to bring Junis back into the fold as a reliever rather than build him up to start. It’s something of a surprise given the recent injuries suffered by lefties DL Hall and Wade Miley, though it’s possible that a multi-inning relief role could allow the Brewers to maximize Junis’s innings in the short-term.
- Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has missed the entire season to this point after suffering a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. Fortunately, however, it appears that the 25-year-old could be nearing his season debut. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Carlson is set to begin a rehab assignment in the near future if he comes out of a hitting session today pain-free. The return of Carlson would be most welcome for St. Louis, as the club recently optioned struggling youngster Jordan Walker to the minor leagues. With Carlson and Tommy Edman both on the injured list, that’s left the club to rely on Michael Siani and Alec Burleson as major contributors to the outfield mix alongside Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.
Cardinals Notes: Nootbaar, Edman, Carlson, Middleton
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided reporters with updates regarding a handful of the club’s injured players this afternoon, the most optimistic of which was regarding outfielder Lars Nootbaar. As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, the 26-year-old played a full game in left field for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis this evening, which figures to be followed by a game at DH on Sunday. Assuming those final rehab games go well, Denton adds that Nootbaar is slated to head to St. Louis on Monday and could be activated from the injured list in time for that evening’s series opener against the Phillies.
The Cardinals opened the season with a makeshift outfield mix of Jordan Walker, prospect Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan due to injuries suffered not only by Nootbaar, but also center fielders Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar’s start to the season has been delayed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, while Edman has been dealing with pain in his surgically-repaired right wrist and Carlson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before the season began.
Nootbaar’s return should provide a boost to the club’s production in the outfield, as he’s hit a solid .247/.356/.430 with a 120 wRC+ and an excellent 14.5% walk rate in 225 games for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. That steady production should help to offset the slow starts suffered by Walker (27 wRC+), Scott (4 wRC+), and Burleson (30 wRC+) so far this season, though it’s of course still too early in the season to make any long-term judgments about the aforementioned trio.
It appears that Nootbaar is significantly close to a return than either Edman or Carlson, neither of whom have resumed baseball activities at this point. That could change rather quickly, however, as Denton notes that Carlson was scheduled to have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, while Edman is scheduled to meet with a specialist on Monday. Both players could be cleared to resume baseball activities if those aforementioned check-ups go well.
Edman was hampered by wrist issues last year and missed nearly a month of action over the summer, leading to him going under the knife in October. He hasn’t bounced back from that surgery as well as expected, however, and missed all of Spring Training while dealing with continued soreness in his wrist. He was slated to be the club’s starting center fielder this season, though he’s capable of playing anywhere in the infield and outfield as needed and could receive time at his native position of shortstop alongside Masyn Winn and Brandon Crawford when healthy.
Carlson, meanwhile, appeared poised to replace Edman in center field to open the season before he too hit the injured list to open the season. While he posted strong numbers en route to a third place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021, the switch-hitter has struggled since with a .230/.316/.364 slash line in 204 games. It’s possible he’ll get regular reps in the outfield if he returns to action before Edman does, though once the club’s outfield is once again at full strength he figures to be relegated to work off the bench as the club’s fourth outfielder.
Looking beyond the outfield, Marmol also provided an update on right-hander Keynan Middleton to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) this afternoon. As relayed by Jones, Middleton received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and is expected to resume baseball activities after a 72-hour rest period. The news represents a slight setback for Middleton, who was originally scheduled to begin his throwing program earlier this week.
Middleton has yet to make his Cardinals debut after signing a one-year deal with the club back in February, but pitched to a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 51 games last year that included a dominant stretch run in New York where he posted an excellent 1.88 ERA with a 3.26 FIP while striking out 30.4% of batters faced. Upon his return, Middleton figures to slot into the club’s late-inning mix alongside the likes of Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero.
Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo
The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.
Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.
Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.
As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.
Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.
More news from around the NL and AL Central…
- Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
- Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.
Dylan Carlson To Be Placed On Injured List; Cardinals To Select Victor Scott II
Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson has been diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder following a collision with right fielder Jordan Walker during yesterday’s Grapefruit League game, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced to reporters Tuesday (X link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today). He’ll open the season on the injured list. In his place, the Cardinals will select the contract of outfield prospect Victor Scott. He’ll open the season in center field.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Carlson’s absence will be measured in weeks, not months. As such, while the Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Scott, placing Carlson on the 60-day IL seemingly won’t be a consideration when determining a corresponding move.
It’s an unfortunate blow for both Carlson and the Cardinals. The club came into camp with a planned outfield of Walker in right, Tommy Edman in center and Lars Nootbaar in left. Edman and Nootbaar are each going to start the season on the IL, Edman due to lingering soreness in his wrist after last year’s arthroscopic surgery, Nootbaar due to rib fractures suffered while attempting to make a catch.
That opened the door for Carlson, who was himself been frequently beset by injuries. After a breakout season in 2021, he missed time in 2022 due to a left hamstring strain and left ankle sprain, getting capped at 128 games. Last year, the ankle issues resurfaced and he only got into 76 games, eventually requiring surgery on that ankle.
He seemed to be in good form this spring, having hit .271/.340/.521. Just as he was about to open the season with a starting center field job, a brutally timed collision will send him to the injured list once again. He will hopefully be able to get healthy and rejoin the club in just a few weeks, but it’s also possible that Edman and/or Nootbaar will be back in the mix by that point.
Carlson’s misfortune will be an opportunity for Scott. He was a fifth-round draft pick of the Cards in 2022 and came into professional baseball with strong grades for his speed and defense but concerns about his bat.
Last year, he did a lot to quiet those concerns. He played 132 games between High-A and Double-A, hitting just nine home runs and walking at just a 7.4% rate, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 15.7% clip. His combined batting line of .303/.369/.425 translated to a wRC+ of 118. He also stole a tremendous 94 bases in 108 attempts on the year.
That vaulted Scott onto prospect lists coming into 2024. Both Baseball America and FanGraphs gave him the #83 slot on their respective top 100 lists coming into this year. Keith Law of The Athletic had him up at #55, though Scott didn’t crack the lists at either MLB Pipeline or ESPN.
He has been performing well this spring, hitting .316/.409/.368 and swiping four bags. The Cards probably didn’t plan on Scott jumping to the big leagues, since he was drafted less than two years ago and has no Triple-A experience thus far, but the string of injuries suffered by their other outfielders has forced their hand. Whether Scott sticks around or is merely a placeholder until the other guys get healthy will likely depend on his performance.
Despite some decent prospect hype, Scott won’t qualify for the prospect promotion incentive of the current collective bargaining agreement. It only applies to players that are on two of three top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Since Scott only made the BA lists of those three, he doesn’t make the cut and won’t be able to provide the Cards with an extra draft pick via his placement in awards voting.
Tommy Edman To Open Season On Injured List
After casting doubt on Tommy Edman‘s availability for Opening Day earlier in camp, the Cardinals confirmed Thursday that their expected center fielder will open the season on the injured list. Manager Oli Marmol announced to the Cardinals beat that Edman will be shut down from hitting entirely for the next week, as it’s still causing him pain in his surgically repaired wrist (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). It’s still not clear whether left fielder Lars Nootbaar, who’s been slowed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, will be cleared for Opening Day. Marmol added this morning that Nootbaar will be reevaluated Saturday (X link via John Denton of MLB.com). He’s been engaged in limited baseball activities for the past week.
Edman, 28, has primarily been a middle infielder in the past but handled himself well in 310 innings of center field work last season, drawing plus grades from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Defensive versatility has been one of his calling cards since he debuted in the majors, as he’s played every position other than catcher, first base and pitcher — drawing positive defensive marks everywhere he’s been.
With top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn on the cusp of MLB readiness, the Cardinals’ plan has been to move Edman to center field. Veteran Brandon Crawford was brought in as a veteran contingency plan at short in the event that Winn struggles, further cementing Edman’s role in the outfield, where he’d be flanked by Nootbaar and slugger Jordan Walker — in the event that all three are healthy.
That won’t be the case to begin the season. Edman, who missed time in 2023 with inflammation in his right wrist, continued to play through discomfort even upon returning from the injured list in 2023 and wound up undergoing arthroscopic surgery in October. The wrist injury could well have contributed to a decline in production at the plate; Edman hit .265/.324/.400 (106 wRC+) in 630 plate appearances in 2022 and got out to an even stronger start in April 2023 before his bat cratered. He was hitting .265/.339/.480 through early May but slipped to .244/.298/.378 over his final 418 trips to the plate. Edman finished out the season about eight percent worst than league-average, by measure of wRC+, with an overall batting line of .248/.307/.399.
With Edman now ruled out for Opening Day, it could be Dylan Carlson getting the nod in center field. The switch-hitter has been the subject of trade rumors for much of the past year, but the Cardinals never found an offer to their liking and will now at least temporarily turn center field back over to the former top prospect. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include slugger Alec Burleson and defensive-minded Michael Siani.
It’s also possible that Victor Scott II, who stole a staggering 94 bases between High-A and Double-A last year, will crack the Opening Day roster. He’s had a big showing in camp, hitting .370/.469/.444 with four steals in 32 plate appearances, but Scott has also yet to play a single game above that Double-A level at which he topped out in 2023. Scott is regarded as a plus-plus defender in center field with 80-grade speed and negligible power. If he makes the club and Nootbaar joins Edman on the injured list, the Cards could put Scott’s glove in center and slide Carlson over to left field.
There are a fair number of moving parts in the St. Louis outfield mix, which has become typical for the organization over the years as they’ve struggled to retain any kind of long-term continuity in the group. Scott’s performance and Nootbaar’s health will be key storyline for the Cardinals in the final couple weeks of camp. Scott would need to be selected to the 40-man roster if he wins a spot on the Opening Day squad.
Lars Nootbaar Diagnosed With Rib Fractures
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced this afternoon that outfielder Lars Nootbaar has two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs on the left side, per John Denton of MLB.com. He underwent a CT scan yesterday after injuring himself making a catch in a recent game. Nootbaar will have a period of 10-14 days where he can swing the bat but have limited work otherwise, per Derrick Goold and Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His readiness for Opening Day is now in doubt but not ruled out just yet. That issue is compounded by the fact that Tommy Edman is also doubtful for Opening Day as he recovers from arthroscopic wrist surgery, per Goold.
In a vacuum, neither situation is devastating for the Cards but it’s not ideal for the club to be heading into the season with two thirds of its outfield now in jeopardy. Nootbaar has taken 974 trips to the plate for the Cardinals over the past three seasons, hitting 33 home runs while drawing walks at a 14% clip and limiting his strikeouts to a 20.3% rate. His combined batting line of .246/.351/.429 translates to a wRC+ of 117, indicating he’s been 17% better than the league average hitter. He’s also swiped 17 bags and received strong grades for his outfield defense.
Removing that kind of production from the lineup would be unwelcome at any time but having him out of action at the same time as Edman would be an unfortunate coincidence. Mozeliak suggested that Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson will likely step up for the time being, per Denton.
Carlson, 25, is a strong defender but hasn’t quite broken out with the bat yet, having hit .243/.322/.394 thus far in his career for a wRC+ of 99. Burleson is generally considered a bat-first guy, though his major league production hasn’t matched his work in the minors just yet. He’s hit .300/.350/.492 on the farm but just .237/.295/.375 in the big leagues, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 85.
With those two likely to be slotted next to Jordan Walker on a regular basis, that could bump Michael Siani up to fourth outfielder status. Siani is a speed-and-defense guy who has hit just .138/.167/.138 in his big league career. That’s a tiny sample of just 30 plate appearances but his minor league offense has also been subpar. He slashed .227/.347/.350 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 81.
Brendan Donovan is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, but the club doesn’t have a regular designated hitter. That likely means Donovan will either be the DH or moving around to give someone else a partial day off most of the time. If Matt Carpenter could seize the DH job, perhaps that frees up Donovan to slot into the outfield more regularly but Carpenter is now 38 years old and hit just .176/.322/.319 for the Padres last year. Donovan also might need some infield time regardless as Brandon Crawford currently profiles as the backup infielder but he’s never played anywhere other than shortstop.
With the outfield injuries, speculation has turned to Victor Scott II, who is one of the club’s best prospects. But Mozeliak tells Denton that the club will take “a measured and patient approach” with the decision to promote him to the big leagues. Scott was just drafted in 2022 has yet to reach Triple-A, so it’s understandable the club may not want to rush him to the big leagues to cover what is likely a temporary need.
All told, there are many moving parts and there’s still a few weeks for the Cards to get everything figured out, but it’s at least somewhat concerning that health has become such a huge focus here in March. The club is looking to bounce back after a nightmare season in 2023 and is already dealing with notable injuries to two thirds of its starting outfield as well as Sonny Gray, their marquee offseason pickup, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.
Sonny Gray Headed For MRI After Early Exit; Tommy Edman May Not Be Ready For Opening Day
Top Cardinals starter Sonny Gray exited today’s spring start with a trainer in the middle of an at-bat against Washington’s Nick Senzel. The team announced shortly afterward that Gray was experiencing tightness in his right hamstring. Gray declined to comment on the potential injury after exiting, instead stating that he wanted to talk to the team’s training staff and learn more about the issue before speaking with the media (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Gray missed roughly a month of the 2022 season with a strain in that same right hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022. Goold further tweets that Gray is headed for an MRI to determine the severity of the issue.
An absence of any real note would be a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals. While the Cards overhauled their rotation this winter, Gray is the lone front-of-the-rotation arm the team brought in. Lance Lynn isn’t far removed from posting high-end results himself, but he’s 36 years old and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He, like fellow mid-30s veteran Kyle Gibson, was signed more as a durable source of innings than to be a clear playoff-caliber starter.
Gray, 34, is fresh off a Cy Young runner-up finish in the American League. He pitched 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball last season, fanning 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. Gray’s 2.83 FIP was a near-identical match with his ERA, though metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize home run rate, were more bearish and pegged him in the mid- to upper-3.00s. Gray’s 5.2% homer-to-flyball ratio was less than half the 12.3% career mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed him for three years and a total of $75MM back in November. He’s slated to be joined by Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas in one of the game’s oldest rotations.
Even if Gray can’t quite replicate his 2023 performance, he’s the clear top starter on that St. Louis staff. Were he to miss time, the drop-off between Gray and his replacement would be substantial. At present, the top options to step into the staff in his stead would presumably be lefties Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Righties Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are both on the 40-man roster as well, though neither has made his MLB debut yet.
The Cardinals, at least thus far, haven’t brought in any veteran big league starters on non-roster deals. That’s understandable, as most players open to that type of deal would take a look at the veteran rotation in St. Louis and see a lack of opportunity — but the lack of any proven depth could also be an issue in 2024, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up.
Gray isn’t the only key member of the Cardinals who’s facing some health-related uncertainty. Tommy Edman, formerly the team’s shortstop and now slated to serve as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder, isn’t recovering from arthroscopic wrist surgery as swiftly as the team hoped. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that “internal concern is growing” that Edman might not be ready for Opening Day. Edman still hasn’t been cleared to face live pitching, Woo writes, and despite the fact that Opening Day is just over three weeks away, there’s not even a timetable for when that might happen.
Fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson would step into the starting job in center field if Edman is on the injured list to begin the season, per the report. Lars Nootbaar played plenty of center field last season, but perhaps if the plan is for him to play left field regularly when Edman is healthy this season, the team simply wants Nootbaar getting as many reps in that position as possible. Carlson’s role as a fourth outfielder would be cycling through all three spots anyhow.
Edman, 28, had a disappointing 2023 at the plate while playing through pain in that now surgically-repaired wrist for much of the season. The versatile switch-hitter spent nearly a month of the ’23 season on the injured list due to inflammation in that wrist, and when he was healthy his output at the plate dropped from .265/.324/.400 in 2022 (106 wRC+) to just .248/.307/.399 in 2023 (92 wRC+).
In the event that Edman indeed requires a stint on the injured list to begin the season, that’d open up a spot on the bench for the Cards. That wouldn’t necessarily need to be an outfielder, as utilityman Brendan Donovan is no stranger to the outfield, and as previously noted, Nootbaar can handle center field work as well. That said, an outfielder would be the most logical candidate. Lefty-swinging Michael Siani and Alec Burleson are both on the 40-man roster already and both have minor league options remaining. Siani is regarded as a plus defender in center field and would offer premium speed off the bench, while Burleson would be limited to first base and the corners but give the Cards some power that the bench currently lacks.
Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, Bloom, Payroll, Injuries
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to reporters at the club’s Winter Warm-up fan event today about a variety of topics, including the future of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in St. Louis. Beyond those discussions, Mozeliak also addressed his own future as the head of the club’s baseball operations department as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.
When asked if he still intended to step back from running baseball operations in St. Louis by the end of his current contract with the club in 2025 as he indicated last winter, Mozeliak stood by those previous comments. “I would imagine that’s going to stay pretty true,” he told Jones and other reporters. “I don’t want to sit up here on January 13 and retire, but I think having a succession plan and uncoupling some of the things I’ve been involved in at such a high level…it’s probably reasonable to think that having a different voice at some point would make a lot of sense.”
As Jones notes, the comments from Mozeliak serve to highlight the club’s recent hiring of former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom in an advisory role. While the hire was only announced earlier this week, Mozeliak indicated today that Bloom has been advising the several months and that the club’s acquisitions this offseason have been “bounce(d) off” the club’s new hire. Mozeliak went as far as to note that Bloom has factored into discussions with chairman Bill DeWitt III regarding the future of the baseball operations department following Mozeliak’s eventual move away from leading the club, though he went on to note GM Mike Girsch and scouting director Randy Flores as other potential candidates.
Mozeliak also discussed the club’s payroll in a way that seemingly leaves the door more widely open to the club making additional moves this winter than previously thought. Though DeWitt indicated recently that the club was close to reaching the limits of its budget, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that Mozeliak left the door open to further roster additions with comments to reporters earlier today.
“The budget question always comes up. Payroll question. It’s probably not as black and white as people would like to think it is,” Mozeliak said (as relayed by Frederickson), “Depending on what the type of investment might look like, it’s something we can always take to ownership if we feel like it’s important or a good value. But do I think there is some room in the payroll if we needed to? Yes.”
The comments largely track with those Mozeliak made early in the offseason, stating that the club needed to add “at least two” high-leverage relief arms to its bullpen mix this offseason. While the addition of veteran right-hander Andrew Kittredge surely accounts for one of those additions, the club’s other bullpen additions have been less impactful. Right-handers Nick Robertson, Wilking Rodriguez, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez all add depth to the St. Louis bullpen, the quartet has just 26 2/3 innings of combined big league experience. Plenty of quality bullpen arms who could bolster the Cardinals’ late-inning mix remain, though they’ve previously been connected to right-hander Phil Maton and left-hander Matt Moore.
In addition to those comments, Mozeliak provided updates on a trio of injured position players, noting (per Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that shortstop Tommy Edman is recovering well from the wrist surgery he underwent back in October while also adding that both outfielder Dylan Carlson and utilityman Brendan Donovan are expected to be ready for Spring Training next month. Carlson underwent ankle surgery back in September, while Donovan underwent surgery on his elbow on August 2.
The healthy return of that trio of players figures to be crucial for the Cardinals as they look to rebound from a 71-91 record that saw them finish last in the NL Central last season. Edman provides the club with valuable versatility thanks to his ability to capably handle both shortstop and center field on an everyday basis, while Donovan’s .365 on-base percentage in 95 games last year trailed only Lars Nootbaar‘s .367 figure among qualified Cardinals. Carlson, meanwhile, struggled badly in 2023 but could join Nootbaar and Jordan Walker as one of the club’s regular outfielders entering 2024 as he looks to recapture the form he flashed in 2021, when hit .266/.343/.437 in 619 trips to the plate while roving between all three outfield spots.
Mozeliak: Cardinals Listening To Offers On Tyler O’Neill
3:40pm: In addition to O’Neill, both Carlson and Alec Burleson have drawn trade interest to some extent this offseason, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Both stand as plausible trade candidates themselves, though Mozeliak hasn’t taken the step of publicly declaring that with either player as he did with O’Neill.
In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning (video link), Mozeliak again touched on his trade talks regarding the outfield, admitting that it would be “a surprise” if some trade involving one of his outfielders doesn’t come together. Specifically, Mozeliak said he hopes to upgrade his bullpen next, whether via the trade of an outfielder or other means.
10:29am: Tyler O’Neill‘s status as a potential trade candidate isn’t exactly a well-kept secret. Heading into the winter, it’s been widely expected that the Cardinals would listen to trade offers on both O’Neill and fellow outfielder Dylan Carlson. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak removed any doubt about the likelihood of an O’Neill trade in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM from this week’s Winter Meetings (video link).
“In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”
Mozeliak added that he’s received “a lot of hits” on his outfielders in general, but O’Neill was the only one he specifically highlighted as a potential trade piece. The Cards have been against moving Nootbaar for some time now, and it stands to reason that there’s similar reluctance to consider moving Walker, who entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects and posted a .291/.358/.478 slash following the trade deadline.
O’Neill, 28, has ostensibly become an odd man out of the group. While the Cardinals could play Edman in the infield and thus open more playing time for O’Neill, the arrival of prospects like shortstop Masyn Winn, second baseman Nolan Gorman and utilityman Brendan Donovan have crowded the infield outlook as well. Winn, 21, didn’t hit well in last season’s MLB debut (.172/.230/.238), but that came in a sample of just 137 plate appearances — and Mozeliak specifically mentioned him in his MLB Network Radio appearance when describing his infield mix as “pretty solid” with Winn at short, Gorman/Donovan at second base and veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at the corners.
All signs seem to point to a potential trade of O’Neill, who as recently as 2021 slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers and Gold Glove defense in left field but has since mustered just a .229/.310/.397 slash in 169 games. Injuries have played a significant factor in those struggles; O’Neill had an IL stint due to a shoulder impingement and a pair of IL stints for hamstring strains during the 2022 season. His 2023 campaign included a trip to the 60-day injured list for a lower back strain and a later return to the IL for a foot sprain.
There’s little doubt that a healthy O’Neill has game-changing power, but O’Neill simply hasn’t been healthy enough in his big league career. He played in 50 games during the shortened 2020 season and 138 games in 2021 but has otherwise rarely been on the field for the majority of a given season. That 2021 campaign is the only time he’s ever reached 100 games played or reached 400 big league plate appearances.
O’Neill is slated to become a free agent at season’s end and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM this coming season. The power is clearly legitimate, but he’s been a bit below average at the plate overall throughout these two most recent, injury-riddled seasons. He still grades as a plus defender in left field and is an above-average runner. As far as change-of-scenery candidates go, O’Neill is a fairly appealing one, but the litany of injuries, minimal club control and limited recent track record at the plate will all coalesce to tamp down his value in a trade.
Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios
The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.
Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.
Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.
Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.
Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.
Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.
In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.
As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.
It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.
That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.
All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.