Nationals, #2 Overall Pick Dylan Crews Agree To Terms
The Nationals have agreed to terms with second overall pick Dylan Crews, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Talk Nats blog suggested earlier this week the framework of a deal was in place, pending a physical (on Twitter). The specific signing bonus is unclear, though Heyman indicates it’ll come in around $9MM.
That’s right in line with the selection’s $8.99MM slot value. It’s very likely that’ll go down as the second-highest bonus in this year’s class. Paul Skenes landed a record $9.2MM upon going first overall to the Pirates. The Skenes/Crews duo became the first pair of college teammates to ever go 1-2 in the MLB draft.
Crews, a right-handed hitting outfielder, has been regarded as a top amateur talent going back to high school. He went to LSU after teams declined to meet his bonus demands in the 2020 draft. Crews had a monster career for the Tigers, posting an OPS north of 1.100 in all three seasons while playing in college baseball’s top conference.
Regarded as a potential first overall pick throughout the 2023 season, Crews more than met expectations. He raked a .426/.567/.713 clip over 344 plate appearances as a junior. He connected on 18 home runs, walked at an elite 20.6% clip and kept his strikeouts to a 13.4% rate. Crews won the Golden Spikes Award as college baseball’s top performer and helped LSU to a national championship.
Going into the draft, he was still very much in the running for the first pick. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline rated Crews the #1 or #2 player in the class. He topped the pre-draft rankings at BA and The Athletic. Pittsburgh ultimately elected for the potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Skenes. Washington nabbed Crews at #2.
The 6’1″ outfielder is credited with a potential plus hit/power combination. He’s likely to begin his career in center field. Evaluators suggest he might eventually be bumped to right field but should be an above-average to plus corner outfielder if that happens. It’s difficult to find fault with much in his profile. Crews would likely have gone first overall in most draft classes, but Skenes is widely regarded as the best college pitching prospect in more than a decade.
Baseball America slots Crews as the sport’s #3 overall prospect behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio. He’s one slot ahead of fellow Washington outfielder James Wood (and two places above Skenes). The Nats will hope for Crews and Wood to anchor their outfields of the future once they pull out of their ongoing rebuild.
Big Hype Prospects: Crews, Skenes, Amador, Hampton, Mauricio
Nobody runs a stronger Top 100 prospects list than Baseball America. Today, we’ll look at some key updates to their mid-season list that have yet to be reflected by other public outlets. We’ll also check in on recent draftees.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Dylan Crews, 21, OF, WSH (CLG)
258 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .426/.567/.713
Crews leads the 2023 draft class, ranking fourth overall among the Top 100 prospects in the game. He’s basically tied with future teammate James Wood. The Nationals have the foundation of a potent outfield in the near future.
If there’s a knock on Crews, it’s a possible weakness to pro-caliber breaking balls. Perhaps the only challenge left to him before his Major League debut is coping with pitchers who can precisely command breaking stuff. Otherwise, he’s a premium all-fields power hitter who can stick in center field. Given the potency of his bat, he’s still valuable as a corner outfielder.
Paul Skenes, 21, SP, PIT (CLG)
122.2 IP, 15.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.69 ERA
Skenes outclassed college hitters in a batter-friendly run environment. He’s considered more or less Major League ready and could debut whenever Pittsburgh is ready for him. Between his heavy college workload and violent delivery, don’t expect that to happen this year. The recent trend is to shut down heavy workload college pitchers in their draft year. Skenes’ fastball is a weapon, regularly hitting triple-digit velocity with arm-side run and carry. He’s deadly working up-and-in to right-handed hitters. Southpaws won’t enjoy facing him either. He throws multiple breaking balls and features a quality changeup – a pitch that was all but unnecessary to his college dominance.
Adael Amador, SS, 20, COL (A+)
259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514
A personal miss of mine, Amador wasn’t much to look at last year despite strong results. We often see players of this ilk thrive in the low minors only to fade as they climb the ladder. It’s a discipline over physical skills profile, though the physical side of his game has improved enough to project a future starting role. Previously, I viewed him as a future oft-used utility guy based on his public measurables. My scouting contacts backed up that assessment with their visual impressions. Amador still primarily makes pulled, ground ball contact. He’ll need to develop more lift in order to make the most of his skills.
Chase Hampton, 21, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 74.2 IP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.13 ERA
An afterthought on Yankees lists entering this season, Hampton is sprinting through the minors. He’s added velocity to a five-pitch repertoire of effective offerings. He’s passed Will Warren within the system. Pitchers with at least four average pitches and 50-grade command tend to have long careers (health allowing). The Yankees haven’t shown the best feel for finishing their pitching prospects in recent years – perhaps inspiring their willingness to deal J.P. Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline last season. Hampton is seemingly a cut above.
Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AAA)
358 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .299/.344/.512
Whether or not you play fantasy baseball, there’s something attractive about guys who mash dingers and raid forts. Mauricio produces wild exit velocities – 92.0 average and 115.8 max. That’s all the more impressive when we consider his Baez-ian discipline. Like early-career Baez, his ability to square pitches out of the zone helps him to recover for objectively abysmal discipline. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t flash Baez’s superlative defensive feats. Had the Mets played as expected, Mauricio is probably traded in the upcoming weeks. As it stands, he should receive an audition at second base before long.
Three More
Ethan Salas, SDP (17): Salas, whom we profiled in more depth last week, jumped from the mid-50s to 18th on the BA Top 100. A precocious defender, the rapid development of his bat has caught even his most ardent supporters by surprise. Few players generate half this much excitement in their age 16 season. How he handles his growing fame will prove instructive.
Sal Frelick, MIL (23): While I’ve soured on Frelick, BA is enthused with a 32nd ranking. Their short blurb references the reason why I’m concerned – a lack of authoritative contact. His 85.2 average and 106.5 max exit velocities are well below average in a year when most guys have artificially inflated Triple-A EVs. The discipline remains pristine.
Wyatt Langford, TEX (22): The other draftee who was widely considered a first-overall caliber prospect, Langford might manage to outhit Crews. However, he’s miles behind defensively despite comparable physical ability. FanGraphs offers a fun comp – Pat Burrell with a jetpack.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
2023 MLB Draft, First Round Results
The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round. The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022. As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.
The first-round selections….
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
- Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
- Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
- Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University Of Florida
- Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
- Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
- Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
- Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (TX)
- Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, University of Tennessee
- Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
- Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
- Chicago Cubs: Matthew Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
- Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
- Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University Of Mississippi
- San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison High School (VA)
- Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
- Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
- Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B/SS, TCU
- Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
- St. Louis Cardinals: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
- Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High School (OH)
- Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
- Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, University of Florida
- San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
- New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep High School (FL)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Aidan Miller, 3B/SS, Mitchell High School (FL)
- Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska
This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days. Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight. Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick. The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.
The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement. The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round. The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks. This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.
This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight. More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
Several Prospects Withdraw From 2020 Draft
With MLB’s shortened, five-round draft a week away, multiple players have removed their names from consideration. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports that high school outfielders Dylan Crews and Brandon Fields have withdrawn their names, as has Florida State outfielder Reese Albert, who’ll return to FSU for his senior season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that high school catcher Kyle Teel is also withdrawing. Crews will honor his commitment to Louisiana State University, while Fields will play for the University of South Carolina and Teel will head to the University of Virginia. They’ll all be eligible for the 2023 draft.
Crews is the most notable of the bunch, landing 39th on McDaniel’s Top 150, 54th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 68th on MLB.com’s Top 200. Collazo writes that Crews ranked as the No. 2 prep player in the country entering last summer but had somewhat of a down year that caused his stock to dip a bit. As for the others, McDaniel calls Teel a potential third-round talent, while Collazo lists both Fields and Albert as “top-200 caliber” players, which suggests that neither was a lock to go in this year’s shortened draft.
It’s possible, if not likely, that additional players will remove themselves from consideration in 2020 between now and next Wednesday. Beyond the draft being capped at five rounds, this year’s slot values did not increase over their 2019 levels, and draft bonuses are being paid out in deferred fashion through 2022. Those who go undrafted, meanwhile, will be limited to $20K signing bonuses. High school players, in particular, could see appeal in playing college ball and bolstering their stock, given the elimination of the middle and late rounds of the event.