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Edwin Jackson

Free Agent Stock Watch: Edwin Jackson

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When the Nationals signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year, $11MM contract a few days before the start of Spring Training, it was widely considered to be one of the best free agent deals of the offseason. They had just added a workhorse starter with a 3.96 ERA from 2009-2011 to a staff that already included Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. The pitching rich got richer.

Uspw_6510102Jackson, 29, is now scheduled to hit the free agent market for the second time in as many years. He dumped Scott Boras in favor of the Legacy Agency in July, perhaps an indication that he was unhappy with only getting a one-year contract. Jackson passed on a lucrative three-year offer from the Pirates to join a club that many believed was poised to break through and become a contender, a belief that proved to be true. But still, he didn't get a long-term deal.

This season has been similar to the last three for Jackson. He's pitched to a 4.13 ERA in 30 starts and 183 innings while keeping his walk rate down (2.8 BB/9), his ground ball rate up (47.2%), and enjoying a boost to his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) after a full year in the NL. Jackson is limping to the finish though, as his ERA has jumped exactly half-a-run this month. He allowed nine runs (eight earned) in 1 1/3 innings last night, and has allowed at least four runs in four of his five September starts. His fastball velocity, which averaged 94-95 mph from 2007-2011, is suddenly more 92-94 these days.

One bad month usually isn't enough to sabotage a player's free agent stock, and Jackson will have the postseason to prove that September is just a poorly-timed slump. The free agent pitching market will be headlined by Zack Greinke, but Jackson leads a group of second-tier arms that will include Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, and Anibal Sanchez. More than 3,500 MLBTR readers say the Nationals should make Jackson a qualifying offer (in the $13MM range) after the season, a move that frankly feels like a no-brainer. It'll entitle them to draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, and in the worst case they get him back for another year.

Jackson is almost certainly going to seek the multi-year contract he was unable to land last offseason, and he should have no trouble finding suitors. Big market teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees could turn to him to supplement their rotations while smaller payroll clubs like the Pirates, Royals, Blue Jays, Indians, and Orioles figure to show interest as well. Pitching is always in high demand, especially when you're talking about a just turned 29-year-old who is right smack in the prime of his career.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Poll: Should Edwin Jackson Get A Qualifying Offer?

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It wasn’t long ago that Edwin Jackson was one of the top free agent starting pitchers available. Before long he’ll re-appear on the free agent market, and when he does the Nationals will have to decide whether it’s worth extending him a qualifying offer.

Doing so would allow Washington to obtain draft pick compensation for the right-hander should he sign elsewhere. But it’d also create the possibility of Jackson accepting a one-year contract in the $13MM range.

In some instances the risk (the possibility of a $13MM commitment) isn’t worth the reward (potential draft pick compensation). But in Jackson’s case, a one-year $13MM contract would seem to be a team-friendly deal. 

Jackson has a 3.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 47.3 % ground ball rate in 173 2/3 innings so far in 2012. Like most Nationals starters, he throws hard (average fastball velocity of 93.5 mph) and generates swings and misses (12.2% swinging strike rate). And though he’s in the midst of his tenth MLB season, he’s still in his prime at 29 years old. Even if the Nationals preferred other candidates for their rotation, Jackson could generate trade interest at that salary.

Last offseason, under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, the Cardinals offered Jackson arbitration, setting themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2012. If the Nationals make Jackson a qualifying offer, no other team will be able to sign him unless they surrender a 2013 draft pick. But there’s not an abundance of quality free agent starting pitching and many of the top pitchers (Zack Greinke excluded) will be linked to draft picks. Jackson, who’s now represented by the Legacy Agency, figures to draw interest either way. What should the Nationals do?

National League Notes: Braves, Jackson, Cabrera

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A pivotal battle between two division rivals in the midst of a playoff race took 19 innings to complete as the Pirates beat the Cardinals by the score of 6-3. Pedro Alvarez gave Pittsburgh the lead in the top of 19th when he hit a solo shot against Barret Browning. The Pirates took the three-game series with the win and would be headed to the playoffs if the season ended today as the second Wild Card.

Here's the latest news and headlines from around the National League…

  • With the Braves set to play one more series against the Nationals after this week's showdown, Atlanta realizes the importance of making up ground in D.C. starting on Monday, writes Andrew Simon of MLB.com. The Braves have a comfortable hold on the top Wild Card spot but have played well enough to make a run at the division only to be matched win-for-win by Washington. "We have the opportunity to take advantage because it seems like every time we win, they win and they don't lose very often," said Freddie Freeman. "So this is our time to try to take control of things and get a little closer."
  • Nationals right-hander Edwin Jackson, a free agent after the season, would like to remain in D.C. on a deal longer than the one-year contract he signed in February, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. "Anything more than one year," Jackson said. "It would be nice to settle down for more than one year, for sure. I would like to [stay]. I could see myself being a part of [the Nationals], but at the end of the day, it's up to ownership."
  • The battle against performance-enhancing drugs remains an uphill struggle for Major League Baseball, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal suggests Melky Cabrera's actions reflect a desperate person willing to resort to desperate actions as he may have viewed PEDs as the lone way to salvage his career. While there may be less users in baseball as compared to a decade ago, players are still abusing the system and reaping the benefits that Cabrera enjoyed for almost a full season, if not longer.

Edwin Jackson To Join Legacy Agency

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Nationals right-hander Edwin Jackson is changing his representation, leaving Scott Boras for the Legacy Agency, major league sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  With Boras, Jackson signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals rather than a multi-year pact.

The Legacy partners include Greg Genske, Brian Peters and Scott Parker. They represent C.C. Sabathia, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn. For other Legacy clients and client of other agents, check out MLBTR's Agency Database.

Quick Hits: Jackson, Perkins, Lane, Nitkowski

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Happy birthday to Hall-of-Famer Jim Rice, who turns 59 today.  On a more somber note, it was on this day in 1999 that the legendary Joe DiMaggio passed away at age 84 after a battle with lung cancer.

Here's some news from around the majors as we head into the end of the work week…

  • Edwin Jackson tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he didn't receive any interest from the Cardinals about returning to the team.  "There was no involvement with the Cardinals. Pitching wasn't a department they needed help in. Their rotation is pretty much set," Jackson said.  "It was a place I wouldn't have minded going back to…but, coming into the offseason, it was never a place I realistically thought I had a chance to go back to."
  • Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities radio details Glen Perkins' path from filing a grievance against the Twins in 2009 and seemingly being on the outs with the club to today's three-year extension that keeps the southpaw in Minnesota through 2015.
  • Jason Lane talks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic about his attempt to return to the Major Leagues as a pitcher, and how a chance meeting with Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers last summer led to Lane getting a minor league deal with Arizona.
  • C.J. Nitkowski, who last pitched in the majors in 2005, threw a bullpen session with the Mets on Thursday, reports MLB.com's Anthony DiComo.  Nitkowski pitched in Japan and Korea from 2007-2010 and, as MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince details, underwent a controversial blood-and-stem cell treatment last year.  Nitkowski was the ninth overall pick of the 1994 amateur draft and pitched for eight teams in a 10-year Major League career, including a five-game stint with the Mets in 2001.
  • The long-term effects of Lucas Giolito's UCL strain have yet to be determined, but Baseball America's Conor Glassey examines how the injury could impact Giolito's position in the 2012 amateur draft.
  • The Mexican Baseball League has announced that Jose Canseco will not play for Quintana Roo Tigers after the slugger allegedly took a banned substance and refused to take a drug test, reports ESPN's news news services.  League president Plinio Escalante told ESPN Deportes that testosterone was the banned substance.  Canseco has denied the charge on his Twitter account.

NL East Notes: Alderson, Santana, Jackson

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The Phillies, winners of the National League East for five consecutive seasons, signed Jonathan Papelbon, retained Jimmy Rollins and bolstered their bench this offseason, but it won't necessarily be enough for a sixth straight division title. Here are some links from the increasingly competitive NL East…

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson may soon face a frustrated fan base if players brought in under Omar Minaya don't show significant progress in 2012, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Alderson says his goal is for the Mets to make the playoffs, even if it seems unrealistic to outsiders.
  • In response to Scott Boras' suggestion that the Mets might be better off under different ownership, Alderson told SiriusXM’s Evan & Phillips in the Morning that the agent's comments are nonsense. "That’s somebody who is trying to generate a market for players that he represents," the GM said (transcript via MetsBlog).
  • Shoulder injuries have derailed many promising pitching careers, but Johan Santana is attempting to move past shoulder troubles and "do everything the way [he] used to do it,” according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan.
  • Nationals starter Edwin Jackson has bounced around extensively as a Major Leaguer, suiting up for six different teams, but as Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports, players and executives consider Jackson a good worker and a positive clubhouse presence.

Boras On Edwin Jackson, Damon, Mike Gonzalez

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I had a chance to catch up with super agent and MLBTR reader Scott Boras after today's baseball analytics panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston.  A few highlights:

  • Asked what led Edwin Jackson to take a one-year deal with the Nationals, Boras said, "In Edwin's case, it was choice.  We had multiyear deals, a number of them.  We really felt that it was best for him, at his age, to be with a particular team at a particular time and then go into the free agent market next year."  I was curious as to whether Boras thought Jackson would improve his market position with a better 2012 performance, and the agent explained, "Our metrics, our analysis, we felt that his evolution as a pitcher is coming.  I think he was developing certain pitches as his season went on.  We really felt it was best for him to do a one-year contract rather than a three-year deal."  
  • Speaking of the agency's analytical tools, Boras has internal metrics he does not share with teams in negotiations, he noted during the panel.  These analytics instead help determine how the agency values the player as a starting point.  Sabermetric guru and Red Sox employee Bill James jumped in to question Boras on what he does when a GM places a significantly higher value on a player than Boras does, "other than celebrate."  The agent replied that he will, for the most part, guard against poor fits for his clients, unless the client dictates his destination due to family concerns.
  • Johnny Damon is "home, working out, waiting for the right team," Boras told me.  I asked if Damon was expected a Major League deal, and Boras said, "Johnny Damon was about the third-best DH in the AL.  I'm sure there's a lot of clubs that are looking at youth, and by the time spring training ends they may be looking at it differently."
  • Lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez is "in play with a lot of teams right now," according to Boras.  He elaborated, "A lot of it has to do with situational needs and clubs. In these markets, sometimes late doesn't mean demand, it just means choice."

NL Central Links: Molina, Cards, Dempster, Reds

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Congratulations to Brewers GM Doug Melvin for his induction into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.  Joining Melvin in the 2012 CBHOF class are former Major Leaguers Rheal Cormier and Rusty Staub, plus Canada's gold-medal winning baseball team from the 2011 Pan Am Games.  The official induction ceremony takes place on June 23 in St. Marys, Ontario.

Some news from around the NL Central….

  • Yadier Molina's contract negotiations shouldn't impact either his or the Cardinals' performance in 2012, manager Mike Matheny tells Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Matheny said that Albert Pujols' departure won't influence Molina's own contract situation, though Molina is understandably disappointed that his good friend left St. Louis to sign with the Angels.
  • Also from Strauss, he runs through 11 outstanding questions facing the Cardinals heading into the season.
  • Ryan Dempster expressed an interest in remaining with the Cubs for the rest of career during an interview on MLB Network Radio's First Pitch on Thursday (interview highlights courtesy of CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney).  Dempster exercised a $14MM player option to stay with the Cubs in 2012 but it's uncertain if the rebuilding Cubs would try to bring him back in free agency.
  • The Reds' current TV contract is believed to run through 2016 and pays the team around $10MM per year, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Fay thinks the Reds will need a major upgrade in their next cable contract to compete with teams like the Angels and Padres, who have completed, or are close to competing, much more lucractive TV deals.
  • MLB.com's Tom Singer thinks Edwin Jackson (and agent Scott Boras) made a mistake in turning down one-year and three-year offers from the Pirates to sign a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.  Singer feels Jackson would've re-established his value better pitching in the NL Central on the one-year contract, and the three-year deal would've given Jackson some security against either a drop in form or getting "swallowed up by a market that might include the likes of Matt Cain, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels."

Quick Hits: Pirates, Verlander, Camp

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On this date 14 years ago, the Mets sent pitching prospect A.J. Burnett to the defending World Series champion Marlins for Al Leiter. New York's other team was also busy that day — the Yankees acquired Chuck Knoblauch from the Twins. So far today we've seen one major trade take place and here are some assorted links to read as we await the next significant move…

Nationals To Sign Edwin Jackson

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The Nationals haven't finished above .500 since moving to Washington in 2005, but there's reason to expect significant improvement from the 2012 club. GM Mike Rizzo continued bolstering his pitching staff today, agreeing to terms with free agent right-hander Edwin Jackson.

Edwin Jackson

The team announced the one-year deal, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who first reported the news (all Twitter links), says the agreement is valued at $11MM. The Scott Boras client will earn $11MM plus incentives this year, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports.

The Nationals' projected starting rotation includes Jackson (pictured), Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Chien-Ming Wang. Every one of the starters except Wang had an average fastball velocity of at least 92 mph in 2011. John Lannan and Ross Detwiler would provide rotation depth, though Lannan is now on the trade block.

Jackson, 28, posted a 3.79 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a 43.8% ground ball rate in 199 2/3 innings for the White Sox and Cardinals this past season. The hard-throwing right-hander has averaged 208 innings per season with a 3.96 ERA since 2009, but has a career ERA of 4.46 with 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 since he debuted with the Dodgers on his 20th birthday in 2003. Jackson ranked sixth on MLBTR’s list of top free agents entering the offseason.

Jackson profiled as a Type B free agent after the season and the Cardinals offered him arbitration. They'll obtain a compensatory draft pick in the supplementary first round of this year's amateur draft, but it won't come from the Nationals. 

As MLBTR's Agency Database shows, the Boras Corporation has quite a presence on the Nationals' roster. Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Jayson Werth are all Boras clients.

Last week the Nationals added Brad Lidge to a bullpen that includes Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and Henry Rodriguez. Washington's offense finished 24th in MLB in runs scored last year, but improvements to the pitching staff could make them a threat in the NL East this coming season.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio first tweeted the value of the deal. 

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