Marlins Notes: Ramirez, Jackson, Saunders
The Marlins, who agreed to terms with Greg Dobbs on a two-year deal this evening, are still considering ways of improving their rotation. Here’s the latest…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that Hanley Ramirez still has a “strong preference” to remain at shortstop, but will deal with his upcoming position change professionally. The Marlins are expected to meet with the infielder in Miami this week, according to Rosenthal. Ramirez indicated to the Associated Press last Friday that he was content to move to third base to accommodate Jose Reyes
- Joe Frisaro of MLB.com hears that the Marlins have little or no interest in free agent starters Edwin Jackson or Joe Saunders. However, the Marlins would be willing to trade top prospects to acquire a frontline starter.
- Which Marlins prospects will appeal to rival teams? Outfielder Christian Yelich and right-hander Jose Fernandez top Kevin Goldstein’s list of Marlins prospects at Baseball Prospectus.
Boras Seeks Five Years For Edwin Jackson
8:16pm: At the beginning of the offseason, the asking price for Jackson was in the Lackey/Burnett range ($82.5MM), tweets ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. The Yankees haven’t had talks with Boras about Jackson, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network. No talks are expected unless his asking price drops.
TUESDAY, 2:53pm: Jackson seeks $15-17MM per year, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Boras' promotional book on Jackson compares him to C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe. All of those pitchers received at least $14.5MM per year, averaging $15.6MM. Of course, Wilson and Buehrle just signed and the other three contracts were regrettable. The Yankees will continue dialogue with Jackson, writes Heyman. The process is starting to remind Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues of the Yankees' signing of Rafael Soriano last year.
MONDAY, 11:21am: Edwin Jackson's asking price is approximately $60MM over five years, writes ESPNNewYork's Wallace Matthews. The Yankees like the free agent righty, "but not at that price," writes Matthews. Matthews' colleague Buster Olney tweeted the same, saying that unless the Yankees' budget grows, there's no room for Jackson.
Ultimately I expect Jackson to settle for something closer to four years and $44MM, which wouldn't be an awful price for a 28-year-old innings eater with a touch of upside.
Additionally, Matthews writes that the Cubs' asking price for Matt Garza is "out of the question" for the Yankees. He says the Cubs want at least two and possibly all three of Yankees top prospects Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Marlins have also been connected to Garza in recent days.
Heyman On Garza, Jackson, Varitek
The Yankees and Red Sox have approached the offseason with uncharacteristic restraint — at least so far. Freddy Garcia ($4MM deal with the Yankees) and Nick Punto ($3MM deal with the Red Sox) represent their most extravagant open market expenditures of the winter (though the Yankees did lock C.C. Sabathia up to an extension). Here’s the latest on the longtime American League rivals from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:
- The Yankees “desperately seek” a number two starter, according to Heyman. Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza may be more likely targets than Hiroki Kuroda, Jair Jurrjens, Wandy Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd and Roy Oswalt. The Yankees like Jackson’s arm, potential and durability, though they wonder about his consistency. However, they would like to keep new contracts to one or two years and Jackson seeks a five-year deal in the $60MM range.
- The Yankees also like Garza, who can be retained through 2013 via arbitration.
- The Red Sox are still considering a new contract for Jason Varitek, Heyman reports. The Red Sox value his contributions and haven’t ruled out a reunion, despite the presence of catchers Kelly Shoppach, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway on the roster. "Our hope is that Tek will always be a part of the Red Sox in some way," GM Ben Cherington told reporters last month.
Blue Jays Unlikely To Acquire Matt Garza
The Blue Jays continue exploring ways of improving their rotation, but they’re unlikely to acquire Matt Garza from the Cubs, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Garza is under team control through 2013 and the Blue Jays are wary of trading top prospects for a relatively short-term addition. There doesn't appear to be a leading suitor for the right-hander at the moment, but the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox and Marlins appear to be in the mix to acquire him.
The Blue Jays don’t appear to be especially interested in free agent right-handers Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt and they’re unlikely to pursue Edwin Jackson, Rosenthal reports. Agent Scott Boras seeks a five-year deal for Jackson, but Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos has avoided major free agent expenditures since his hiring more than two years ago.
Toronto’s projected rotation includes Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez. Dustin McGowan, Carlos Villanueva and Aaron Laffey are others who could compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. The Blue Jays expect to consider prospects Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins for promotions in 2012, Rosenthal writes.
Quick Hits: Madson, Phillies, Orioles, Hanrahan
It was on this day in 2009 that the Mets signed Jason Bay to a four-year, $66MM contract. The deal was almost immediately panned as one of the worst moves of the 2009-10 offseason and time has proven the critics right; Bay has hit just .251/.337/.386 in two injury-plagued years in New York.
Some news items as we head closer to 2012…
- Ryan Madson is "the loser of the offseason," writes Fangraphs' Eric Seidman. With no obvious teams still in need of a long-term closer, Seidman thinks Madson may have to settle for a one-year contract and try again for a multiyear deal next winter. 32.36% of MLBTR readers polled believe Madson will sign with the Angels, with just under 21% picking 'other' and 17.55% picking the Reds. Though LAA and Cincinnati have cheaper closing options in the fold already, they're also looking to win now. They'd both surely jump at Madson on a one-year deal and are probably Madson's only realistic suitors for a multiyear contract, though who knows what Scott Boras may yet pull out of his hat. (The 'other' voters clearly know all about Boras' relationship with the Mystery Team.)
- The Phillies aren't likely to bid on Yoenis Cespedes and Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that Jorge Soler (the other intriguing Cuban outfield prospect on the market the winter) is also too unproven and expensive for the potential $20MM+ contract he could receive from a team.
- Also from Brookover, he lists Jonny Gomes and Scott Hairston as potential targets for the Phillies as the team looks for a fifth outfielder. If the Phils want to spend more to fill the spot, Brookover suggests Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick.
- The Rangers' January 18 deadline for signing Yu Darvish is also the day the "logjam will break" for Prince Fielder, opines Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. If the Rangers can't sign Darvish, they "will be all over Fielder" to counter the Angels' signing of Albert Pujols.
- There are "roughly six teams that have shown consistent interest" in Wei-Yin Chen, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles are one, the Pirates presumably still another, and the other four are yet unknown.
- Also from Connolly's piece, he predicts Edwin Jackson will find at least a four-year contract on the free agent market and notes that while "Jackson's upside intrigues the Orioles," team management has shied away from that long a commitment to free agent pitchers in the past.
- Pirates closer (and MLBTR fan) Joel Hanrahan tells Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he doesn't expect to receive a long-term contract offer from the Bucs this winter. Hanrahan is projected to earn around $4MM this winter in his second trip through the arbitration process. He said the team hasn't made contact with him or his representatives yet about his 2012 contract, but this was also the case during his first taste of arbitration last year.
Latest On Edwin Jackson
Edwin Jackson may not be an ace, but he’s the top free agent starter available at this point in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that Jackson is a safer bet than Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish.
“If someone were to say that Yu Darvish would come in, average 200 innings, less than a 4.00 ERA and be a solid two or three starter, they would be elated,” Boras said. “The reality is, that is exactly what Edwin Jackson has done.”
Jackson, 28, posted a 3.79 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a 43.8% ground ball rate in 199 2/3 innings for the White Sox and Cardinals this past season. The hard-throwing right-hander has averaged 208 innings per season with a 3.96 ERA since 2009, but has a career ERA of 4.46 with 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 since he debuted with the Dodgers on his 20th birthday in 2003. Jackson ranked sixth on MLBTR’s list of top free agents entering the offseason, and he’s the top pitcher on the market now that Darvish and C.J. Wilson are unavailable.
Boras suggested the market for Jackson continues to develop as new general managers take in information about potential additions. Boras argued that no Japanese pitchers have averaged 200 innings with an ERA under 4.00 in their first three seasons in MLB, but Hideo Nomo accomplished just that with the Dodgers.
Poll: Which Team Will Sign Edwin Jackson?
Despite the perpetual demand for quality starting pitching around the league, Edwin Jackson‘s market has been relatively quiet this winter. If you sort through our archive, you’ll see just a handful of items involving the right-hander dating back to October. That’s not typical for a Scott Boras client.
With Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos both traded, C.J. Wilson signed, and the Yu Darvish bidding complete, Jackson’s market figures to pick up some steam soon. Big spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox need pitching help, and mid-range revenue clubs like the Blue Jays and Rockies have made it known that they’d like to add a starter. Even the Marlins continue to look for high-end pitching despite landing Mark Buehrle earlier this offseason.
Jackson, 28, is one of the few remaining free agent innings eaters left on the market. His last three seasons have been very comparable to John Danks‘, who just landed a five-year, $65MM contract extension from the White Sox. Jackson could reasonably ask for a similar contract on the open market, but who will give it to him?
Which team will sign Edwin Jackson?
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Yankees 19% (3,294)
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Another team not listed 17% (3,040)
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Blue Jays 16% (2,716)
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Red Sox 13% (2,265)
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Marlins 10% (1,709)
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Orioles 9% (1,536)
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Tigers 8% (1,407)
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Royals 6% (974)
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Rockies 3% (453)
Total votes: 17,394
Pitching Links: Edwin, Marlins, Saunders, Felix
Here's the latest on the arms race from around the majors…
- Edwin Jackson and John Danks have comparable numbers over the last three years, which is why Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog thinks Scott Boras will use Danks' recent extension with the White Sox as a model for Jackson in free agency. "Now I know hearing five years and $65M+ for Jackson is a little wacky, just because he [doesn't] come off as the type of pitcher deserving of that kind of commitment…but I refuse to bet against Boras," Axisa writes.
- "Anytime you hear a pitcher's name, you can safely say the Marlins are in," a National League source tells Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Matt Garza, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez and Joe Saunders are all mentioned as possibilities for the Fish, though if the Marlins didn't have the minor league talent to acquire Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos, it's hard to see them being able to deal for Garza. Rodriguez is a possibility since I'd guess Houston's larger concern is getting his salary off the books rather than obtaining a large haul of prospects.
- Speaking of Saunders, he talked to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic about the negotiations between he and the Diamondbacks. Arizona offered Saunders a two-year, $12MM deal and Saunders' camp countered with a three-year, $27MM deal. The D'Backs never made a counter, and though Saunders said he then offered to take a two-year contract worth around $16MM, the club non-tendered him and moved on. I've got to side with the D'Backs in this case — with the rest of their rotation so cost-controlled, if you're going to splurge on a starter, you can spend your money on a better pitcher than Saunders (perhaps Hiroki Kuroda).
- The Mariners not only shouldn't trade Felix Hernandez, argues Shannon Drayer of ESPN 710 Seattle, but if the team absolutely feels the need to swap a starter, they should deal Michael Pineda instead. Dreyer calls Pineda "replaceable…There is a very good chance that by the end of next season Danny Hultzen could be Michael Pineda on the hill in regards to development, path, and what he brings to the rotation."
- Kevin Goldstein of ESPN (Insider subscription required) presented 10 Major League scouts and executives with a field of Matt Garza, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, Ricky Nolasco and Justin Verlander and asked the question, "Based on talent alone, would you take Yu Darvish ahead of this pitcher?" Aside from the Verlander comparison, Rangers fans will heartily enjoy the other answers.
Remaining Free Agent Innings Eaters
Finding an innings eater is not as easy as you’d think. Seven MLB teams didn’t have a single pitcher throw 200 innings in 2011 and none of those seven clubs made the playoffs. Only five teams — the Angels, Phillies, Brewers, Giants and Diamondbacks — had three pitchers log 200 innings. Those five clubs averaged 93 wins and accounted for all three division titles in the National League.
Now that it’s late December, many of the most durable free agent pitchers are no longer available. As a result, free agents Joe Saunders, Hiroki Kuroda and Edwin Jackson* are well positioned at this point in the offseason. They’re three of the 40 pitchers who logged 200 innings this past season and it’s no surprise that they’re each drawing interest, especially while the asking prices for trade candidates such as Gio Gonzalez remain high.
Not only does an innings eater contribute when he’s on the mound, he lightens the workload for others on the staff by pitching deep into games. For example, the Orioles’ bullpen was average at best in 2011 and if we measure the group in terms of strikeout rate (7.33 K/9) or ERA (4.18), it's easy to conclude that Buck Showalter was working with one of the worst bullpens in MLB. But Baltimore needed an MLB-leading 565 2/3 innings from the bullpen, and it’s not hard to imagine that the group’s performance would have been better with a few more days off over the course of the season. At the very least, Showalter would have called on middle relievers less often. Then the results would have been better even if the talent level remained unchanged.
Saunders, Kuroda and Jackson aren’t necessarily top-of-the-rotation starters and each has his flaws. But innings eaters are difficult to come by, so the three remaining free agents who reached the 200 inning plateau last year figure to continue drawing significant interest until they sign.
*Jackson pitched 199 2/3 regular season innings plus 17 2/3 in the playoffs. Should Javier Vazquez (192 2/3 innings) decide to play, teams will have interest in him, too.
Marlins Notes: Hanley, Morrison, Pujols, Fielder
The Marlins held an introductory press conference for Mark Buehrle today, and here are a few hot stove details from those proceedings and beyond…
- The Marlins have "poked around in the market" to see what interest there would be in Hanley Ramirez, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The team claimed Ramirez wouldn't be dealt in the wake of Jose Reyes' signing but even coming off a down year, Ramirez would be a big trade chip.
- Logan Morrison is "drawing more trade interest" than any other Miami player, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Still, it is "highly, highly unlikely" Morrison is sent elsewhere.
- Team president David Samson denied reports that the Marlins offered Albert Pujols a near-record contract, saying the club's offer was worth a bit more than $200MM, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Miami offered Pujols a ten-year, $275MM deal that could have ultimately been worth $300MM with incentives and because Florida has no state income tax.
- When asked if the club would pursue Prince Fielder, owner Jeffrey Loria replied "Oh, I don't know about that. We'll see," reports Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. In another tweet, Capozzi hears from a source that the Marlins never had interest in Fielder.
- Juan C. Rodriguez reports the Marlins also aren't interested in free agent starter Edwin Jackson (Twitter link).
- The Marlins are planning to have internal discussions about an extension for Mike Stanton, Capozzi reports (via Twitter). There is no time frame, however, as the club is waiting until "after [the] dust settles" on their busy offseason. Stanton is already under team control through 2016 and doesn't reach arbitration for two more years.
- MLB.com's Anthony DiComo details the incentive clauses and the year-by-year breakdown of Jose Reyes' six-year deal. Reyes will earn $10MM in each of the next two seasons, $16MM in 2014, and then $22MM in each of the final three guaranteed seasons. The Marlins have a $22MM team option on Reyes for 2018 that can be bought out for $4MM.