Morosi’s Winter Meetings Preview
Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports covers some of the major headlines that we'll be seeing over the next four days during baseball's Winter Meetings. Here's a late night look at the highlights:
- Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are still the headliners, and Morosi thinks that Pujols will sign first (although not necessarily this week). Once Pujols signs — Morosi predicts he'll remain in St. Louis — it's possible that his the increased number of suitors for Fielder will land him more money than Pujols. Fielder, of course, is also four years younger than Pujols.
- Fielder prefers teams east of the Mississippi River and teams that can win the World Series in the near future. The list of known interested parties includes the Brewers, Mariners, Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Nationals. Seattle's rebuilding status and geographic location may remove them from the mix, while the uncertainty around how much Chicago's new front office is willing to spend may remove them as well.
- Morosi doesn't think Angels GM Jerry Dipoto would've moved Tyler Chatwood without knowing the acquisition of another starting pitcher was close at hand.
- The Twins remain interested in Edwin Jackson, according to Morosi's sources, but the Scott Boras client isn't likely to sign before fellow free agents C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle.
- The availability of Andrew Bailey, Huston Street, and Brandon League slows down the market for free agent closers, and Morosi speculates that a few wise teams in search of closers will be able to wait out veteran bargains as potential closing gigs dwindle.
- The Yankees, Tigers, Marlins, and Nationals have been the most active in scouting Yoenis Cespedes. While he's not a free agent yet, his market will be dictated by whether or not teams like Miami and Washington land their other targets at the Winter Meetings and in the coming weeks. Detroit would be most interested if they decide that Cespedes can bat leadoff for them right away.
- Robert Whiting, an expert on Japanese baseball, told Morosi over the weekend that there's still no word on whether or not Yu Darvish will be posted.
- Whiting told Morosi that Darvish became disillusioned with the posting process, partly because of the failure of Hisashi Iwakuma and the A's to work out a deal last year. He is also wary of the struggles and ridicule that other NPB stars have incurred in their transition to MLB, Whiting told Morosi.
Twins Interested In Jeff Francis And Edwin Jackson
The Twins were among the finalists for Chris Capuano before the left-hander signed with the Dodgers, and now they're turning their attention to Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. They've had preliminary discussions with Francis' agent and are likely to continue talks at the winter meetings next week.
Jackson, a Scott Boras client, would not a cost draft to sign as a Type-B free agent, but Minnesota is wary of his price tag according to Morosi. At the moment, the Twinkies have Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Duensing as potential starters, but Baker, Liriano, and Blackburn have injury concerns and Slowey is a non-tender candidate.
National League Free Agent Arbitration Offers
10 National League teams have free agent arbitration offer decisions to make today, and we'll update them in this post in advance of the 11pm central time deadline. For a fantastic customizable chart with all 57 Type A/B free agents and their teams' decisions in real-time, click here.
Updated team decisions:
- The Giants won't offer arbitration to Pat Burrell (B) or Cody Ross (B) according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Carlos Beltran (A) contractually cannot be offered arbitration.
- The Dodgers declined to offer Hiroki Kuroda (B) arbitration, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (on Twitter). Rod Barajas (B) already signed with the Pirates.
- The Pirates offered arbitration to Derrek Lee (B) while declining to offer Ryan Ludwick (B) and Chris Snyder (B) arbitration. Ryan Doumit (B) already signed with the Twins.
- The Phillies did not offer Roy Oswalt (A) or Brad Lidge (B) arbitration, according to the AP (via ESPN). The team announced that it offered arbitration to Raul Ibanez (B), Ryan Madson (A, will not cost signing team a draft pick), and Jimmy Rollins (A), according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (via Twitter).
- The Cubs offered arbitration to Carlos Pena (B) and Aramis Ramirez (B) but not to Kerry Wood (B), according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter).
- The Cardinals offered Edwin Jackson (B) and Albert Pujols (A) arbitration, but declined to make offers to Rafael Furcal (B) and Arthur Rhodes (B), according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter). That leaves Octavio Dotel (modified B, no arbitration offer necessary).
- The Mets offered Jose Reyes (A) arbitration, according to Newsday's Ken Davidoff (on Twitter).
- The Padres will offer arbitration to Heath Bell (A, will not cost signing team a draft pick) and Aaron Harang (B), tweets Corey Brock of MLB.com.
- The Brewers offered Prince Fielder (A) and Francisco Rodriguez (A, will not cost signing team a draft pick) arbitration. They declined to offer Yuniesky Betancourt (B) arbitration. Takashi Saito (A), contractually cannot be offered arbitration.
- The Braves did not offer arbitration to Alex Gonzalez (B), according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Teams with automatic decisions only:
- Reds: Francisco Cordero (modified B, no arbitration offer necessary), Ramon Hernandez (modified B, no arbitration offer necessary)
- Astros: Clint Barmes (B, already signed with Pirates)
- Rockies: Mark Ellis (B, already signed with Dodgers)
Heyman On Rollins, Yankees, Nolasco, Jurrjens
As usual, Jon Heyman is tweeting up a storm. His latest from Day 2 of the GM Meetings…
- The Brewers have added Jimmy Rollins to their list of potential shortstops. They're also eyeing Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Clint Barmes.
- The Yankees believe the prices on C.J. Wilson and Edwin Jackson are way too high thus far, and plan to wait them out. Wilson's agent Bob Garber requested a meeting with the Yankees in New York, during a discussion with GM Brian Cashman yesterday.
- The Marlins are telling teams Ricky Nolasco is not available now. Heyman wonders if they would change if they sign a free agent pitcher.
- One GM interested in Braves righty Jair Jurrjens does not believe he will be traded. The Braves seek an impact bat in return.
- Interest is picking up in Francisco Rodriguez, the third-best available reliever currently in Heyman's opinion.
Rangers Expressing Early Interest In Pitching
The Rangers are aggressively exploring possible deals for free agent starters and closers, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. Texas' front office is considering other options and while pitching remains the' top offseason priority, Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols could tempt GM Jon Daniels, according to Sullivan.
The Rangers have expressed preliminary interest in free agent starters such as Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt. Rangers officials acknowledged interest in Oswalt, who is drawing substantial early attention despite back issues that landed him on the disabled list twice in 2011. C.J. Wilson is a free agent and the Rangers could convert Neftali Feliz to the rotation, so there's lots of uncertainty when it comes to Texas' 2012 pitching staff.
Quick Hits: Maddux, Maine, Jackson, Darvish
The Orioles officially announced that they’ll name Dan Duquette their executive VP of baseball operations tomorrow. While that front office change was expected, the Twins’ decision to replace Bill Smith with Terry Ryan was most certainly not. Here are some notes from around MLB on yet another busy day for front office movement…
- The Cubs will interview Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux for their managerial opening Wednesday, according to reporters, including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (on Twitter). Maddux withdrew from Boston’s managerial search for family reasons.
- ESPN.com’s Keith Law explores the middle infield market and warns potential suitors that Willie Bloomquist, Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt may disappoint in 2012. MLBTR has examined the market for shortstops and second basemen in recent weeks.
- John Maine feels healthy and intends to pitch in 2012, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (Twitter link).
- The Yankees have had preliminary discussions with agent Scott Boras about free agent starter Edwin Jackson, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports explains that the upcoming collective bargaining agreement relates to the market for starting pitching, since teams aren’t likely to commit tens of millions to players before the details of the CBA become clear. Morosi also reports it’s likely, but not definite that Yu Darvish will be posted this offseason.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has told clubs and agents he intends to be proactive this winter, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark (on Twitter). Stark and others have reported that the Phils are currently pushing to sign Ryan Madson.
- Jim Callis of Baseball America looks back at the drafted players who fell furthest because of signability questions.
Heyman On Pagan, Braves, Pujols, Madson
Terry Ryan is officially the interim general manager of the Twins, but Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the longtime GM is recharged and may stay a while (Twitter link). Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors from SI.com:
- The Mets have discussed Angel Pagan as a non-tender candidate, but they intend to offer him arbitration, according to Heyman (on Twitter). MLBTR projects a $4.7MM salary for the center fielder in 2012.
- Meanwhile, Chris Capuano is looking for a two-year deal, but the Mets prefer one-year bargains (Twitter link).
- The Braves are looking for a Zack Greinke-like return in a deal for Jair Jurrjens, according to Heyman (on Twitter). The Royals obtained Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt last offseason.
- Twins executive Mike Radcliff and Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer weren’t that interested in the Orioles’ GM job, according to Heyman. The Orioles requested permission to interview them both, but the Twins denied the request and the Orioles hired Dan Duquette before setting anything up with Oppenheimer.
- It's believed that Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava got a raise to stay in Toronto, according to Heyman.
- It’s hard to tell Boston’s list of managerial candidates apart from the one the Cubs have, as Heyman explains.
- It doesn’t appear that the Cardinals will be able to boost their nine-year, $200MM offer to Albert Pujols by much.
- Ryan Madson is drawing lots of interest and the Red Sox, Phillies, Nationals, Rangers and Marlins are believed to be interested.
- C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt are drawing lots of interest, as expected.
- Heyman hears that Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen is pushing for Prince Fielder or Pujols. The Marlins have also expressed early interest in Jose Reyes.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Edwin Jackson
Last night's seven-walk World Series performance was one to forget for the Cardinals' Edwin Jackson, though the righty certainly isn't turning his attention to free agency yet. Jackson might be the fourth-best free agent starter this offseason; let's take a closer look.
One point Jackson's agent Scott Boras is sure to play up is sure to play up is his client's age; he just turned 28. No accomplished free agent starter is younger, and most are over 30. For Boras that will translate into years, perhaps with a target of four. Last winter only Cliff Lee exceeded three years, and only a handful of guys reached that level.
Though Jackson will be fighting a reputation of inconsistency, he has made at least 31 starts every year since 2007. Including the 2011 postseason, Jackson has averaged about 214 innings from 2009-11. In '09 with the Tigers Jackson's innings pitched per start jumped past 6.4, and it has stayed there since. He's not much different than Mark Buehrle in that regard.
Despite these numbers, Jackson doesn't feel like anything close to a #1 or #2 starter. He averages almost 95 miles per hour on his fastball, yet his strikeout rate stays around seven per nine innings and he's quite hittable. His last two pitching coaches were the game's best, Dave Duncan and Don Cooper. While Jackson had a flash of brilliance for 75 innings with Chicago last year, his strikeout rate came back down and his walks back up this year. Jackson was arguably worse in his Cardinals stint, with both his strikeout and groundball rates plummeting. Jackson's ERAs have bounced around and even his SIERAs tell us to expect anything from 3.85 to 4.30.
Six teams have tried to harness Jackson's potential, and potential suitors will have to wonder why he's been deemed so movable. Though he's had some moderate AL East success, I don't expect the Yankees and Red Sox to seriously enter the mix. I could see the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, Twins, Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, and Rockies as matches for Jackson instead.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Make Or Break Year: What Happened?
Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.
We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and again at its midway point. Let's do it again now that the regular season's over (all links go to the MLBTR posts):
Players whose seasons met or exceeded preseason expectations:
- Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez had a strong season, hitting 26 homers and posting a .306/.361/.510 line as the Cubs' everyday third baseman.
- Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent after the season, completed 199 2/3 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate.
- Bobby Abreu - Though Abreu's power dropped off, he managed a .353 on-base percentage and 21 steals. His 2012 option vested in July, so he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.
- Carlos Beltran - A highly-coveted midsummer trade target, Beltran spent time on the DL with a strained right hand and wrist in August. His season line was .300/.385/.525, so agent Scott Boras will likely receive multiyear offers for the switch-hitter.
- Jeff Francis - Francis pitched 183 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He wasn't spectacular, but he made his starts, quieting questions about the condition of his left shoulder.
Players who had disappointing seasons due to injury or poor performance:
- Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The 2011 season could not have gone much worse for the former first rounder.
- Nate McLouth - McLouth's .228/.344/.333 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but he missed the second half with oblique and abdominal injuries.
- Jonathan Broxton - It was a lost season for Broxton, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow and is looking at an incentive-based one-year deal in free agency.
- Grady Sizemore - Sizemore got off to a hot start, but finished the season with a .224/.285/.422 line. Knee and abdominal issues limited him to 71 games and there's no guarantee that the Indians will pick up his $9MM option for 2012.
- Joel Zumaya - Zumaya didn't pitch in a Major League game after undergoing elbow surgery in March.
- Ryan Doumit - A sprained left ankle limited the 30-year-old to 77 games. When healthy, he posted a .303/.353/.477 line, but it doesn't appear likely that the Pirates will pick up his $7.25MM option.
- Casey Blake - Blake hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances and spent considerable time on the DL with a cervical strain. He had surgery in September and the Dodgers will decline his $6MM option for 2012.
- Matt Capps - Capps saw his strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), ground ball rate (41.6%), average fastball velocity (92.9 mph) and innings total (65 2/3) drop this year, while his ERA rose nearly two runs to 4.25. At least he stayed healthy, unlike many on this list.
Cardinals Notes: Berkman, Mozeliak, Jackson
The Cardinals edged the Braves out for the National League Wild Card and are now preparing for their Division Series matchup against the Phillies. Here are some Cardinals-related links, as we await tomorrow's Kyle Lohse–Roy Halladay contest…
- Lance Berkman told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he doesn't question his durability the way others do. The switch-hitting slugger adds that he feels great about his resurgent season and recent $12MM contract extension.
- Everyone wants to know how the Cardinals completed a seemingly impossible comeback and GM John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch that the team succeeded because the starters pitched deeper into games and the bullpen became "more credible and more functional."
- Cardinals players told Strauss that they were impressed by the July trade that brought Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson to St. Louis. Here's a complete recap of Mozeliak's in-season trades.