Elvis Andrus

Rangers Place Willie Calhoun, Elvis Andrus On IL; Select Yadiel Rivera

By Connor Byrne | August 20, 2020 at 6:50pm CDT

6:50pm: Calhoun has a low-grade strain that will keep him out at least three weeks, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

5:54pm: The Rangers have placed outfielder Willie Calhoun (left hamstring strain) and shortstop Elvis Andrus (lower back strain) on the 10-day injured list, the team announced. They also selected infielder Yadiel Rivera’s contract and recalled right-hander Kyle Cody.

Calhoun and Andrus are notable names for the Rangers, though neither has produced as hoped for the 10-13 club so far in 2020. Calhoun finally began realizing the potential he had as a prospect last season, but the 25-year-old has stumbled to a line of .172/.206/.224 (5 wRC+) with no home runs in 63 plate appearances. He has mostly alternated with Shin-Soo Choo in left field and at DH, but the Rangers have also mixed in several other players in those spots.

Andrus, 31, has been a high-end contributor for the Rangers at times, but he’s now in the throes of a third straight abysmal offensive season. Eighty-two plate appearances in, he has batted .184/.244/.250 (28 wRC+) and joined Calhoun in failing to hit a homer. Andrus played every game for the Rangers through Aug. 16, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa has taken the helm at short since then.

The 28-year-old Rivera, who signed a minor league deal with the Rangers last offseason, brings some major league shortstop experience to the table. He lined up there with the Brewers and Marlins from 2015-19, but if history’s any indication, he won’t provide an upgrade over Andrus. Rivera has hit a meager .178/.248/.221 (33 wRC+) with one HR over 314 trips to the plate in the bigs.

The Mark Grace Decade Award

By TC Zencka | April 25, 2020 at 9:58am CDT

For many years, my go-to baseball trivia question was this: who led the 1990s in hits?

I won’t bury the lede any further: The answer is Mark Grace. Grace never hit 20 home runs in a season despite being a middle-of-the-order bat, and he spent most of his career on lackluster Cubs teams. He was a three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner who never finished higher than thirteenth in MVP voting. He was a very good baseball player. But I think it’s safe to say that he’s not the first name that comes to mind when looking for the decade-leader in hits.

Growing up, Grace was my favorite player, but that’s only part of why I loved this trivia question. In my mind, Grace epitomized something special about the game. He played smart and with obvious boyhood joy. He could hit .300 falling asleep, and though he wasn’t known for his power, he held his own – in his words – by “turning triples into doubles” (he also led the nineties in doubles). #17 wasn’t a superstar to the world (he didn’t hit home runs, he didn’t run well, and he played for the lovable loser version of the Cubs), but Grace made the most of his physical abilities and let his personality shine through. And ah yes, he had more hits in the nineties than Tony Gwynn, Robby Alomar, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Cal Ripken Jr.…or anyone else.

That he accomplished this feat speaks to the randomness and the breadth of the game of baseball. Only a player who played in every season of the decade is likely to lead all major leaguers in hits (see the exception to this rule later). And yet, what a tremendous accomplishment! The juxtaposition of those two thoughts encapsulates so much of what makes baseball unique. Timing is a huge factor in determining what becomes part of the baseball zeitgeist, and yet, there’s an ocean of information beneath the surface of any given statistical achievement.

Not to date myself, but there’s been two full decades since Grace led the nineties in hits! Granted, hits are no longer the be all and end all of offensive production. Not anywhere close. But they’re still important. Leading the league in hits over a decade is more trivia than player analysis, but it’s still an accomplishment that shines a light on a particular style of hitter. So without further ado, I thought it would be a fun exercise to see who wins the Mark Grace Award for leading a decade in hits.

2010-2019

Robinson Cano (1,695)
Nick Markakis (1,651)
Adam Jones (1,647)
Starlin Castro (1,617)
Miguel Cabrera (1,595)
Elvis Andrus (1,595)

Kicking it off, this is not the list I expected for our most recent decade. Cano taking the title is impressive, if not surprising for the career .302 hitter, because he only appeared in 107 games this last season and only 80 games the year before that. Taking the crown regardless speaks to how difficult it is in this day and age to stay in the game. Kudos to the the rest of the list as well, which provides a real working class crew (Miggy aside). Cano is also, for what it’s worth, the least productive hits king in any decade since the war-torn forties when the Indians’ Lou Boudreau took home the title with 1,578 hits.

2000-2009

Ichiro Suzuki (2,030)
Derek Jeter (1,940)
Miguel Tejada (1,860)
Todd Helton (1,756)
Vladimir Guerrero (1,751)

Tejada is the only name on this list that might take more than a couple of guesses. Of course, the most impressive feat here is that Ichiro managed to chalk up more than 2,000 hits in only 9 seasons.

1990-1999

Mark Grace (1,754)
Rafael Palmiero (1,747)
Craig Biggio (1,728)
Tony Gwynn (1,713)
Roberto Alomar (1,678)

Biggio or Gwynn probably would have been my guess had I not known the answer beforehand. Biggio led the league in plate appearances in 5 seasons (’92, ’95, ’97,’98,’99), but he hit “only” .297 for the decade (versus .310 for Grace). Gwynn hit .344 in the nineties, but only managed to appear in more than 140 games twice.

1980-1989

Robin Yount (1,731)
Eddie Murray (1,642)
Willie Wilson (1,639)
Wade Boggs (1,597)
Dale Murphy (1,553)

Willie Wilson gave himself a good head start with 230 hits in 1980, but Yount and Murray managed to make up the difference before the end of the eighties. The Royals’ great did crush the competition for most triples in the decade, however, with 115 (Yount was second with 83).

1970-1979

Pete Rose (2,045)
Rod Carew (1,787)
Al Oliver (1,686)
Lou Brock (1,617)
Bobby Bonds (1,565)

No surprises here, with Rose and Carew atop the list.

1960-1969

Roberto Clemente (1,877)
Hank Aaron (1,819)
Vada Pinson (1,776)
Maury Wills (1,744)
Brooks Robinson (1,692)

For the decade, Clemente hit .328/.375/.501. He took the batting crown four times and hit over .350 twice (1961: .351 BA, 1967: .357 BA).

1950-1959

Richie Ashburn (1,875)
Nellie Fox (1,837)
Stan Musial (1,771)
Alvin Dark (1,675)
Duke Snider (1,605)

Integration wasn’t exactly a comprehensive process from the jump when Jackie Robinson first appeared for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947, so we’ll make the fifties the last decade. All in all, Pete Rose unsurprisingly was the most prolific hits leader in any decade with 2,045 knocks in the 70s, but I’m not sure there’s a more impressive name on there than Ichiro, whose wizardy with the bat came up just 15 hits shy of Rose in just 9 seasons from 2001 to 2010.

Otherwise, definitely some names you might have expected (Rose, Young, Clemente), but it’s not as if a 3,000 hit king rules every decade. Ashburn, like Grace, hit the league at the perfect time to snag this award, as his career spanned from 1948 to 1962. He joins Grace and Cano as the non-3000 hit players to lead a decade in hits (though Cano still has an outside shot to get there). For their careers, Grace takes the distinction as the player with the least career hits to lead a decade in the category.

Who else on these list surprises you? Al Dark? Elvis Andrus? Who did you expect? Let’s hear your takes in the comments!

Transaction Retrospection: Elvis Andrus’ Extension

By Mark Polishuk | April 4, 2020 at 8:12pm CDT

Contract extensions have been a key part of Jon Daniels’ team-building strategy over his 14+ years as the Rangers’ general manager, and the richest of those extensions was completed seven years ago today. Elvis Andrus agreed to an eight-year, $120MM contract that also contains a $15MM vesting option for the 2023 season.

The new deal began with the 2015 season, which would have been Andrus’ first free agent year. Andrus was already signed to a previous extension — a three-year/$14.4MM pact for the 2012-14 seasons, which were Andrus’ three arbitration years — and thus Texas needed to make a sizeable investment to keep Andrus off the open market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of the deal, “Scott Boras has managed to secure the largest extension ever for a shortstop in terms of new money,” which was perhaps a necessary step given that Boras usually advises his clients to test free agency. (In fact, the Andrus deal has been cited for years as one of the relatively few examples of a Boras Corporation client signing a long-term extension that covers free agent seasons.)

At the time of the deal, it’s quite possible the Rangers felt they would ultimately be on the hook for only the first four years (and $62MM) of the extension. Andrus had opt-out clauses after both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and as deep as a week into the 2018 campaign, he looked like a strong candidate to exercise that first clause given his improved offensive production in 2016-17. However, a fractured elbow cost Andrus two months of the 2018 season and he never really got on track after the injury, thus informing his decision to stick with Texas in 2019.

Last season, Andrus just flat-out struggled, hitting .275/.313/393 (76 wRC+, 78 OPS+) over 648 PA, with a career-low 5.2% walk rate and a major lack of quality contact, as per his Statcast numbers. In the wake of that poor season, Andrus again chose to pass on his opt-out clause, leaving Texas owing the shortstop $43MM through the 2022 campaign and now not really knowing what to expect from Andrus performance-wise over those three seasons.

Such risks are baked into any extension, of course, and it’s worth noting that Andrus’ hitting potential was a question mark even back at the time of his 2013 deal. Though he had been a highly-touted prospect (Baseball America ranked Andrus as the 19th-best prospect in the sport prior to the 2008 season) during his time in the Rangers’ farm system, Andrus’ minor league numbers weren’t overly impressive. Even at the big league level, he hit only .275/.342/.353 over his first 2591 MLB plate appearances.

That said, 2012 marked Andrus’ best offensive showing to date, as he hit .286/.349/.378 over 711 PA and reached the AL All-Star roster for the second time in his career. And, it’s unfair to say that Andrus wasn’t a valuable offensive player early in his career, considering that his solid average and OBP were augmented by superb speed and baserunning. Combine these skills with a solidly above-average glovework at shortstop, and it’s easy to see why Texas felt comfortable making a long-term bet on Andrus’ future.

Had that extension not been signed, Andrus would have been a 26-year-old free agent hitting the free agent market in the 2014-15 offseason. There wasn’t much in the way of premium middle infield talent available that winter, so even though Andrus didn’t do a ton to elevate his stock over the 2013-14 seasons, his young age and hints at further productivity could have still potentially led to a nine-figure contract. An Andrus free agent deal could have been something of a forerunner to Jason Heyward’s deal with the Cubs a year later, with a team choosing to pay a premium for a 26-year-old, non-elite offensive player based on their overall skillset and future breakout potential. Heyward had a much better hitting track record than Andrus, so the shortstop wouldn’t have gotten anywhere near the $184MM and eight years Heyward got from the Cubs, though it isn’t a reach to guess that a team could have given Andrus a six-year commitment.

Though it isn’t known whether Andrus will be able to get back on track in 2020 (if there is a season) or beyond, the uncertainty of the back end of his deal doesn’t mean the extension was a mistake for the Rangers. As per Fangraphs, Andrus has already delivered $85.8MM worth of value over the first five years of the contract, surpassing the $77MM he has earned in real-life money. Andrus was a major contributor to the Rangers’ AL West titles in 2015 and 2016, and while he has never matched his offensive peaks of 2016 and 2017, his sheer durability has also been a big point of value — the fractured elbow is the only significant injured list stint of Andrus’ entire career.

Indeed, that wayward pitch from Keynan Middleton (on the second-last at-bat of a 7-2 Angels win over the Rangers on April 11, 2018) might end up being the real what-if moment of Andrus’ tenure with the Rangers. Had Andrus gone on to match his 2016-17 numbers in an uninterrupted 2018 season, he would surely have opted out of his contract and, even in the slow-moving 2018-19 free agent market easily topped the four years and $48MM left on this Texas deal. In such a scenario, the critics currently bemoaning the Andrus extension would probably have then been criticizing Daniels for negotiating an opt-out clause into the deal in the first place.

Andrus is a notable question mark for a Texas team that is looking to turn things around after three losing seasons. While the 2020 season could end up being a wash, getting one more solid year out of Andrus in 2021 or 2022 could be enough to mark down the extension as a win for the Rangers in the eyes of the general fanbase. Even if 2019 is the beginning of end for Andrus as a productive regular, he has still done enough over the course of his contract to make it a decent return for the Rangers, even if that hoped-for leap into superstardom for Andrus never happened.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Maddon, Newhan, Andrus

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2019 at 5:04pm CDT

The Mariners will be looking for veteran pitching this winter, The Athletic’s Corey Brock writes, though they’ll be focusing on relatively inexpensive hurlers on one-year deals as the rebuilding team will give priority to its younger arms. Tanner Roark, Andrew Cashner, or Tyson Ross are suggested as the types of pitcher (if not those names directly) the M’s could target as they look for experience and the ability to eat innings.

Evaluating how any pitcher will perform on a year-to-year basis is always an inexact science, of course, though Brock also notes that the Mariners and other teams will face an added wrinkle in this year’s offseason market — not knowing how the official MLB baseball could be adjusted in the wake of the home run onslaught that was the 2019 season. Only three teams allowed more homers in 2019 than the Mariners, despite playing their home games in a relatively pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Here’s more from around the AL West…

The Angels officially introduced new manager Joe Maddon at a press conference today, with the veteran skipper telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) that he hopes to remain with the club beyond the length of his current three-year contract. That deal, a three-year/$12MM pact, also includes a bonus clause that will be unlocked if the Angels win the World Series under Maddon’s watch, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Should the Halos win a title, Maddon will earn an extra $1MM in each subsequent year of the deal.
David Newhan, manager of the Angels’ Double-A affiliate, isn’t expected return to the organization in 2020, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link). Newhan spent the last three years working for the Angels, working as the minor league infield coordinator in 2017-18 before serving as Double-A Mobile’s skipper last season.
In regards to a reader question about potentially using Elvis Andrus to fill the Rangers’ hole at third base, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan highly doubts the team would consider such a move. For one, moving Andrus would simply create another vacancy at shortstop, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason to move Andrus when he is still a defensive plus at his current position. Though 2019 was Andrus’ first negative year (-6) in Defensive Runs Saved since 2016, he has long been considered an above-average fielder by the UZR/150 metric, including a 2.2 UZR/150 last season.

Elvis Andrus Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

By Steve Adams | October 18, 2019 at 5:01pm CDT

Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus will not exercise the remaining opt-out clause in his eight-year, $120MM contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. It’s hardly a surprising decision, given that Andrus has three years and $43MM remaining on said contract and struggled through a second straight down year at the plate in 2019.

Andrus, 31, was mostly healthy this season after missing a substantial chunk of the 2018 campaign with a fractured elbow (suffered when he was hit by a pitch). Andrus scuffled mightily at the plate upon returning last year, and while this season’s .275/.313/.393 batting line in 147 games/648 plate appearances was an improvement over his post-injury form in 2018, it was still well south of the league average (76 wRC+, 78 OPS+).

This was the second and final chance that Andrus had to opt out of the eight-year extension he signed with the Rangers. He also had the opportunity to walk away from the final four years and $58MM on his contract last offseason but opted not to do so after the aforementioned struggles upon his return from injury. He’ll now earn salaries of $15MM in 2020, $14MM in 2021 and $14MM in 2022. The contract also has a vesting option that would guarantee Andrus a $15MM salary in 2023 if he totals 550 plate appearances in 2022 or a combined 1100 plate appearances in 2021-22. Those are highly attainable plate appearance totals — particularly for Andrus, who has only fallen shy of 550 PAs in a season twice before (last year, due to the broken elbow, and during his rookie campaign in 2009).

Clearly, the remainder of the contract isn’t a bargain for the Rangers, but Andrus remains a well-regarded defender and an above-average baserunner. If he can restore some combination of his 2016 levels of plate discipline (8.3 percent walk rate) and 2017 levels of power (20 home runs, .176 ISO), a return to average or slightly above-average offensive output is possible. It’s worth noting, too, that Andrus was sporting a hearty .303/.339/.453 slash at the All-Star break, although that was mostly the result of an absolute sizzling month of April. Also of note is that Andrus, who just wrapped up his 11th season with the Rangers, secured full 10-and-5 rights prior upon completion of the 2018 season, meaning he has full veto power over any trade scenario.

Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2019 at 10:00am CDT

The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).

He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.

So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.

Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.

As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.

If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.

Jon Daniels, Chris Woodward On Elvis Andrus

By Connor Byrne | September 20, 2019 at 10:07pm CDT

Shortstop Elvis Andrus is one of multiple high-profile Rangers hitters to endure disappointing seasons. The low-value performances of Andrus, second baseman Rougned Odor and outfielder Nomar Mazara have put forth at least partially explain why the Rangers are on their way to a third straight sub-.500 campaign. No member of the trio entered the year with more at stake financially than Andrus, who could have seriously considered opting out of his contract with a highly productive 2019. Now, though, it would be a major surprise to see Andrus vacate the remaining three years and $43MM on the eight-year, $120MM extension he signed with Texas in 2013.

With Andrus looking likely to stay put, Rangers brass is seeking bigger contributions from the 31-year-old moving forward. The club may even push Andrus to improve by making him compete for playing time, which GM Jon Daniels and manager Chris Woodward suggested to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News could happen.

“I think [competition] would be healthy,” Daniels said. “Elvis has got to perform at a higher level. He’s capable of more and we need more.”

Woodward echoed Daniels, noting, “He knows he has to be better,” and adding that no player “is immune from [reduced roles] if they are not producing.”

Andrus did produce during the first half of the season, but like his once-contending team, he has fallen off dramatically as 2019 has progressed. After slashing .303/.339/.453 before the All-Star break, Andrus’ line has dipped to .230/.271/.293 since mid-July. At the same time, his batting average on balls in play has plummeted from .338 to .261, while his isolated power mark has sunk from .150 to a punchless .063. He’s now on the verge of logging his second consecutive well-below-average offensive campaign (though last year’s was limited by injury), having hit .272/.310/.385 (74 wRC+) with 10 home runs and 28 steals on 36 attempts over 609 plate appearances. Meantime, per Defensive Runs Saved (minus-6) and Ultimate Zone Rating (plus-1.1), Andrus has been a mixed bag in the field.

If Andrus’ season ended now, he’d set a new career low with 1.1 fWAR. Ergo, even though Andrus is due $15MM next year, it’s understandable that the Rangers don’t want to hand him a No. 1 job then. The same applies to his double-play partner, Odor, another well-compensated Ranger who has frustrated the team’s higher-ups.

Utilityman Danny Santana could push Andrus and-or Odor for playing time next year (Grant specifically mentions him as potential competition for Andrus), though it’s difficult to forecast without first seeing how the Rangers’ offseason shakes out. The club’s infield figures to be one of its primary focuses over the winter, as Texas has received less-than-stellar overall production from all of those spots. Santana and late-season call-up Nick Solak are the only players in the bunch who have produced to acceptable levels at the plate.

AL Notes: Dunning, Andrus, Norris

By Jeff Todd | August 27, 2019 at 1:04pm CDT

White Sox righty Dane Dunning recently discussed his Tommy John rehab work with MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The 24-year-old has begun light throwing, but that’s just the start of a lengthy rebuilding process. He’s hoping to be ready for game action by early June, which would be about 15 months after his procedure. It is certainly possible that the highly regarded hurler could have an impact in the majors as soon as 2020, though odds are that he’ll spend more time regaining his footing in the upper minors. Dunning’s sterling 2018 showing was cut short by forearm issues that ultimately ended in the operating room. But he has already shown he can thrive at the Double-A level. When he is able to make it back, Dunning says he hopes to have an even “stronger foundation” to work from. He says he’s stronger, more aware of how to care for his body, and better prepared “to maintain a healthier balance through the season.”

Rangers Recall Willie Calhoun, Place Elvis Andrus On Injured List

By Steve Adams | May 15, 2019 at 3:59pm CDT

The Rangers announced that they’ve recalled outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun from Triple-A Nashville and placed shortstop Elvis Andrus on the 10-day injured list due to a hamstring strain. Texas also optioned righty Wei-Chieh Huang to Nashville and recalled left-hander Jeffrey Springs.

Calhoun, of course, isn’t going to step into shortstop duties in Andrus’ absence. He’s in the lineup at designated hitter tonight, while veteran utilityman Logan Forsythe is getting the first look at short in place of Andrus. Calhoun figures to split his time between left field and designated hitter; he played second base earlier in his minor league career but has logged just three games there in 2019 and didn’t play the position at all in 2018.

It’ll be Calhoun’s third straight season of at least partial duty with the Rangers since being acquired as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Yu Darvish to the Dodgers. At the time, Calhoun was considered to be one of the game’s premier minor league hitters but lacked a defensive home. While the questions about his glovework haven’t subsided, his 2018 struggles at the plate in the Majors (.222/.269/.333) and a decrease in his production in Triple-A (.294/.351/.431) caused his stock to slip a bit.

Still just 24 years of age, however, Calhoun has begun to rebuild his credentials with a robust .304/.416/.557 start to the season in Nashville. After hitting just nine home runs in 470 Triple-A plate appearances in 2018, he’s already slugged eight long balls in 138 trips to the plate so far in 2019. He’s still viewed as a potential long-term piece for the Rangers, and Delino DeShields’ recent demotion to the minors has pushed Joey Gallo from left field into center field, thus creating some room for Calhoun to join the roster. So long as Calhoun hits, today’s promotion could prove to be a move with long-term ramifications.

As for Andrus, it’s not yet clear just how much time he’s expected to miss, but any trip to the injured list is critical for a player with an opt-out clause at season’s end. The 30-year-old had gotten out to a terrific .325/.373/.510 start to the season. Through 169 plate appearances so far, Andrus has tallied six home runs, nine doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases while striking out at just a 16.6 percent clip. He’ll have the ability to opt out of the final three years and $43MM remaining on his contract after the season, though given the fact that he’d receive a qualifying offer in that scenario and would be entering his age-31 season in 2020, exercising that provision could be a long shot.

Could Elvis Andrus Opt Out This Fall?

By Jeff Todd | May 1, 2019 at 9:56am CDT

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently laid out the opt-out decisions that will await several players at the end of the season, he was only willing to go so far as to give Elvis Andrus “an actual chance” at holding enough value to punt the three years (2020-22) and $43MM left on his deal with the Rangers. Now, with a month of the season in the books, Andrus has out-WARred all but five other position players leaguewide. Is it time we upgrade the likelihood that he opts out?

When the Rangers inked the contract at the outset of the 2013 season, it was done in no small part on the club’s faith in Andrus’s ability to continue growing at the plate after two near-average offensive season. That did not come to pass. Instead, he limped to a cumulative .264/.317/.340 slash over three rough campaigns.

At that point, after the ’15 season, the Andrus contract looked to be well under water. But things have ticked up since. As Steve noted in the above-linked post, Andrus went on a healthy .301/.352/.459 run from the start of the 2016 campaign through the point last April when he suffered a fractured elbow. The 2016-17 seasons were by far his most productive offensively.

Unfortunately, Andrus struggled upon his return to action in 2019, finishing the year with a .256/.308/.367 batting line that looks more like his forgettable 2013-15 effort than his intervening turnaround. With the way things shook out, he unsurprisingly elected not to take the first of his two consecutive opt-out opportunities last falls.

Moving back to the present, we’re looking at the best version of Andrus that we’ve yet seen. He’s on pace to top his twenty-homer outburst from ’17 (his only double-digit-dinger campaign to date) and carrying a hefty .231 isolated power mark. Andrus has also swiped six bags to go with his five long balls, further boosting his contribution to what has been one of the game’s most prolific offenses in the early going.

Add it all up, and Andrus owns an eye-popping .361/.425/.583 batting line (164 wRC+) through his first 120 plate appearances. Sure, it’s based in no small part on a .425 batting average on balls in play, but that’s also a reflection of the fact that he’s stinging the ball.

Statcast unsurprisingly anticipates some regression down from Andrus’s stunning .436 wOBA, but still credits him with a sturdy .385 xwOBA for his work thus far. Though he’s swinging and missing more than ever before, with more strikeouts also resulting, the tradeoff has been well worth it. Driven by a more aggressive approach, Andrus is working at heretofore unseen levels in terms of exit velocity (90.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.8%).

So, we’ve got some evidence of an underlying change that is helping to spur the improvements. And we already know Andrus has a surprising power reservoir. He isn’t the first contact-oriented hitter to figure out a way to tweak his output. In this case, it’ll be interesting to see how the numbers begin to settle out over a lengthier sample. Andrus is putting one of every four long balls out of the yard, which won’t continue. But perhaps he can maintain an higher-than-expected homer-per-flyball ratio if he keeps punishing line drives. He’s sitting at a career-best 31.3% rate and has yet to produce an infield fly. Andrus’s average launch angle is actually down quite a bit from recent seasons (to just 6.1 degrees), but when he has put a bit of loft on the ball it has tended to travel far. That approach likely won’t lead to a huge number of home runs, but might enable Andrus to carry good power (with a healthy number of doubles and triples) while also maintaining quite a high batting average and solid OBP.

The offensive arrow is generally pointed upward, if perhaps not at quite as steep a grade as his actual output would suggest. Andrus only carries average foot speed, but he’s still a clear plus on the basepaths with a strong history of adding value there. Of course, future expectations (with the bat and on foot) are also tempered by the inevitable march of time. There are also legitimate questions about where Andrus’s glovework stands and where it’s headed. He has held a rather steady profile in recent years, floating in range of average by measure of both UZR and DRS. The latter sees a drop-off thus far (-3 runs), though it’s too early to weigh that much at all.

Market context is always a critical factor as well. With multiple prominent players signing extensions, the top of the 2019-20 market already looks quite a bit weaker than anticipated — and that’s before potential injuries and/or performance issues. It’s not a bad time for a middle infielder to reach the open market, particularly now that Xander Bogaerts has elected to remain in Boston. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranks Didi Gregorius among the top ten potential earners at present, so there’s some possible competition, but the rest of the shortstop market fails to inspire and there are few certainties among second base candidates.

While there are some very good reasons to believe that Andrus could end up wanting to opt out, I still think it’s rather unlikely. While the Rangers haven’t secured all the value they hoped for in their deal with Andrus, they’ve done well enough. That’s due largely to the fact that he was so young when it was signed. And that attribute no longer holds. Andrus turns 31 in August of this year, meaning that he’d be shopping his age-32+ campaigns to prospective suitors.

The age element is of critical importance in a market setting in which teams are increasingly drawing back the length of the contracts they are willing to offer. It wasn’t long ago that a 34-year-old utilityman Ben Zobrist got a four-year commitment, but there’s good reason to think now that teams will be looking to cap off a deal at three or perhaps four seasons with a player such as Andrus. Plus, he’s not likely to command a super-premium salary. Despite heavy pursuit from multiple teams, Zobrist went for $14MM annually — just what Andrus is earning at present. Third baseman Justin Turner got a bit more ($16MM a year for four seasons) but was on a whole different level with the bat. Xander Bogaerts just took down $20MM AAV in an extension scenario on the heels of a monster 2018 season, but it would be surprising for the older and less offensively accomplished Andrus to reach that figure. Notably, that deal also only runs through his age-32 season.

If there’s a single, defining market data point for Andrus’s outlook, though, it’s the deal Zack Cozart signed with the Angels in advance of the 2018 season. The two players share quite a few characteristics. Cozart hit the market in advance of his age-32 season after posting an offensive outbreak. His showing was buttressed by some recent, quality offensive seasons but he had struggled at the plate previously in his career and had never previously approached his platform-season levels. Cozart had a significant advantage over Andrus in glovework, but was a bit older and had a more worrying health track record. He settled for a three-year, $38MM deal and had to move off of the shortstop position despite carrying some of the game’s very best leather.

Ultimately, even if Andrus sustains a compelling breakout all season long, it’s a bit difficult to see him commanding a deal that handily tops the three years and $43MM he already has in hand. Teams may be comforted by the fact that Andrus is a surehanded defender who could slide to second or third base at some point, but that sort of consideration won’t drive his market any more than it did Cozart’s. At most, opting out might mean chasing another year at a similar salary. That may not warrant the risk of entering free agency with qualifying offer-related draft compensation hanging over his head. Andrus could approach the Rangers in hopes of negotiating a new deal, dangling the threat of the opt-out, but the team doesn’t seem likely to bid against itself. If there’s an opening for Andrus to opt out, even after this phenomenal start, it’s a rather narrow one.

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