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Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

Elvis Andrus Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Elvis Andrus is forgoing the first of two opt-out clauses in his eight-year contract with the Rangers, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Andrus has four years and $58MM remaining on his contract and will earn $15MM in 2019 before again being having the opportunity to opt out of his contract and explore free agency.

Andrus had already told reporters that he planned to be back with Texas in 2019, making the decision largely a formality for the Scott Boras client. This was the logical route for the shortstop, who sustained a broken elbow upon being hit by a pitch early in the season and never really rounded into form after a roughly two-month absence. Andrus, who turned 30 in August, was batting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances of the season when he was hit on the elbow. The injury ultimately him  to 97 games, and he was clearly still feeling the effects of the injury upon return, as he batted just .256/.308/.367 when all was said and done.

That’s an enormous departure from the combined .299/.348/.457 batting line that Andrus posted in 2016-17. Paired with well above-average baserunning and a reputation as a quality defender at shortstop, that 2016-17 level of offensive output would’ve created a legitimate case opting out had Andrus managed to sustain it. Instead, he’ll hope to return to form in 2019, at which point he’ll have to consider whether he can top three years and $43MM in free agency as he heads into his age-31 season.

West Notes: Trout, Beltre, Andrus, Bumgarner, Posey

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Mike Trout just concluded yet another MVP-caliber season, yet team success has continued to elude the superstar.  Trout has only been part of one playoff team (in 2014) and has yet to win even a single postseason game after eight seasons.  With Trout only signed for another two years, the Angels may need to turn things around quick to have a better chance at extending or re-signing him, and Trout indeed told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that playing for a contender is a “huge” factor in deciding his future plans.  “I want to come to the ballpark playing for something.  That’s everybody’s goal here as a player.  You don’t want to come playing for nothing,” Trout said.  This being said, he still holds the Angels organization in high regard: “My years here we haven’t been winning, but they’ve been taking care of me.  I enjoy coming to the ballpark.  It (stinks) when it’s September and you’re out of it. But when I was a kid they took a chance on me.  We’ll see how it goes. I’ve got a couple more years and we’ll go from there.”  Trout also laughed off the idea of the Angels trading him over the next two years, per Fletcher, saying he “for sure” expects to remain with the franchise through at least 2020. In hopes of keeping Trout beyond then, the Halos are expected to discuss an extension with him during the offseason, Fletcher writes.

Elsewhere around the majors’ West divisions…

  • There is a chance the left side of the Rangers’ infield will consist of two new starters next season, as third baseman Adrian Beltre could retire and shortstop Elvis Andrus has an opt-out in his contract. In the latest update regarding the two close friends, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets that Beltre is “genuinely torn” on whether to come back in 2019.  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News believes Beltre will walk away, and he explains why in a piece which pays respect to the future Hall of Famer. Andrus, meanwhile, is still planning to stay with his current contract, as was the case a few weeks ago, according to Wilson. Vacating the remainder of the deal would mean leaving a four-year, $58MM guarantee on the table, which may be too risky in the wake of a down season for Andrus.
  • The Giants are open minded with what to do with ace Madison Bumgarner as they seek a new baseball operations leader, CEO Larry Baer suggested Sunday. The team “does not plan to dictate a timetable for contention or major decisions such as trading or keeping” Bumgarner, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Instead, the Giants will listen to the candidates’ opinions on the best course of action in regards to Bumgarner, who’s only under control for another year. As for longtime battery mate Buster Posey, the soon-to-be 32-year-old will remain behind the plate when he returns from hip surgery next season – perhaps as early as Opening Day, per Schulman. “There’s been no discussion about him playing any other position,” executive vice president Brian Sabean said. “He’s our franchise player and he wants to catch.”
  • More on the Giants, who plan to go into next season with Steven Duggar as their Opening Day center fielder, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. The 24-year-old got his first taste of major league action this season and hit a below-average .255/.303/.390 (87 wRC+) in 152 plate appearances, though he did account for four Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 345 innings as a center fielder. Baseball America (subscription required) ranks Duggar as the Giants’ sixth-best prospect.

Elvis Andrus Unlikely To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus addressed the opt-out clause in his contract with reporters yesterday, strongly suggesting that he doesn’t plan on testing free agency this winter (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Andrus, 30, plainly stated that he is “for sure” coming back to the Rangers next season before backpedaling a bit and emphasizing that no final decision will be made until the offseason.

It’s not much of a surprise to hear Andrus suggest he’ll forgo the opt-out provision in his eight-year, $120MM contract. As I noted last week when running through the opt-outs around the league, Clayton Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out clause in this year’s free-agent class who can be considered likely to opt out. While Andrus had the next-best case, his chances of opting out are lowered by the fact that he has a second opt-out clause in his contract following the 2019 campaign.

Had Andrus performed at a level commensurate with his 2016-17 output — combined .299/.348/.457 with 28 homers and 49 steals in 1257 plate appearances — there’d have been a strong chance he’d opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM. He enjoyed a strong start to the season for the first couple of weeks but then missed just under seven weeks of action after being hit by a pitch and sustaining a fractured elbow.

Since returning, Andrus’ production hasn’t matched his previous levels, as some may have expected given the nature of his injury. Andrus was hitting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances this year but has stumbled to a .253/.293/.365 slash in 307 PAs since returning. He’s made some improvements since the All-Star break, but it’d still be a stretch to imagine him topping $58MM in free agency this winter — especially considering he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer upon opting out. (Were he to walk away from four years and $58MM, the Rangers would surely feel confident he’d do the same if presented with a one-year offer worth around $18MM.)

Andrus can return for a guaranteed $15MM in 2019 and then forgo the remaining $43MM on his contract in the event that he has a better season at the plate. At that point, agent Scott Boras could pitch him as a quality defensive shortstop who has had three strong offensive seasons in his past four years, with the lone disappointment coming after suffering a fairly notable elbow injury that impacted his swing. And, should Andrus incur additional injuries or see his struggles at the plate continue, he’ll have the safety net of a fairly hefty three-year guarantee on which to fall back.

2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

AL West Notes: Astros, Stassi, Cano, Erasmo, Mariners, Andrus

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The Astros are checking around on the bullpen market, though a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that the team isn’t going to make a move unless a clear upgrade can be found.  “It’s going to be really hard for them to upgrade given that adding someone means pushing a capable — even good — reliever…off the playoff roster.  There’s pressure to do something, but it doesn’t really make sense,” the source said.  Indeed, the argument could more easily be made that Houston is the last team that needs bullpen reinforcements, as Astros relievers collectively rank either first or second amongst all bullpens in ERA, WHIP, HR/9, BB/9, K/9 and hits per nine innings.  Tony Sipp is the bullpen’s only southpaw, though even adding another left-hander isn’t necessary given how well Chris Devenski and Hector Rondon have pitched against left-handed hitters.  If the Astros do add another bullpen arm, Feinsand lists some pitchers controlled for multiple years (Brad Hand, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, Adam Conley) as possible fits, as well as a rental (Zach Britton) that Houston has pursued in the past.

Here’s more from around the AL West…

  • Max Stassi was removed from Tuesday’s game after his right wrist by hit by a pitch, though Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that the catcher should be back in a day or two depending on the status of his wrist contusion.  With Brian McCann out of action due to knee surgery, Houston would be very thin behind the plate if Stassi also missed significant time, as veteran Tim Federowicz is the only other backstop on the 40-man roster.  Hinch described Evan Gattis as “still available as a third catcher” after receiving minimal work at the position this year, though it isn’t clear if Gattis would move into more of a proper backup role if Stassi did require a DL stint.
  • Robinson Cano has recovered from the fracture in his right hand, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other reporters.  The injury sent Cano to the disabled list just a day before he was hit with an 80-game suspension for use of a banned substance, leaving him unable to return to the Mariners until August 14.  Dipoto said that Cano has been working out at Safeco Field prior to the team’s official pregame warmups, and is on track to play once his suspension his up, though it remains a bit of a mystery about Cano’s eventual role.  “I’ll talk to you about that later,” is all Dipoto said about whether Cano was open to playing elsewhere than his usual second base spot, as Dee Gordon has stepped in as Seattle’s regular option at the keystone.  Earlier this month, Dipoto said that Gordon would continue to receive work at second base in preparation for potential postseason action, so Cano (who isn’t eligible for postseason play) could see time at first base or DH.
  • In another piece from Johns, Mariners swingman Erasmo Ramirez completed another bullpen session today and is closing in on a minor league rehab assignment.  Ramirez has been limited to two games and 9 2/3 innings this season thanks to a pair of DL stints for a strained lat muscle and then a strained muscle in his shoulder.  He’ll need some time to get ramped up after being sidelined for so long, and Ramirez told Johns that he is open to pitching as a starter or a reliever.
  • After missing over two months due to a fractured elbow, it may be unlikely that Elvis Andrus opts out of his Rangers contract after the season.  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News thinks Andrus will be with the team not only in 2019, but “I really feel like this is a guy who is going to play his entire career in Texas.”  Andrus’ deal pays him $56MM from 2019-22 (plus a $15MM club option for 2023) and contains opt-outs after both this season and the 2019 campaign.  Grant feels the Rangers could work to ensure Andrus remains in the fold by re-negotiating the deal to add another guaranteed year.  This discussion is speculative, of course, as a number of other factors (i.e. if Andrus hits well over the next three months, the fact that Scott Boras is his agent, or if the Rangers are possibly entering a rebuild) could inspire him to test the open market.
  • Here’s another collection of AL West Notes from earlier today on MLB Trade Rumors.

AL West Notes: Athletics, Ohtani, Luhnow, Rangers Infield

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes an interesting look at the future of the Athletics’ baseball operations and field leadership. She cites “increasing speculation in baseball circles and among those who know the A’s higher-ups” that the existing combination of VP of baseball ops Billy Beane, GM David Forst, and manager Bob Melvin may not be maintained past the 2019 campaign. The club is not obligated contractually beyond next season to Beane or Melvin, with the notable exception of Beane’s small stake in the team itself — a potential future wrinkle to keep in mind. Forst’s contract status is not publicly known. As Slusser explains, there’s a general sense that change is afoot in Oakland, though the direction (let alone the outcome) is not yet clear. It’s a worthwhile examination of the A’s organization that you’ll want to read for yourself to appreciate fully.

Here’s more from the AL West:

  • The Angels continue to emphasize that the next steps for injured superstar Shohei Ohtani will not be decided until his sprained elbow ligament has a chance to respond to recent treatment. That said, manager Mike Scioscia says there’s significant internal optimism that the news will be good, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). For the time being, Ohtani is limited to taking some swings with his left arm. It’ll still be two or three weeks until more is known.
  • Astros owner Jim Crane and newly-promoted president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow discussed their plans for the future after announcing a new contract for Luhnow yesterday, as MLB.com’s Christian Boutwell writes. Crane says that Luhnow deserves “a lot of the credit” for the club’s World Series win last year and promising future outlook. It’s the possibility of a sustainable run of success, meanwhile, that has Luhnow excited. “[T]his next phase of keeping this organization at its high level for an extended period of time, that’s what drives me, that challenge,” he said. Despite his new title, Luhnow will continue to function as the general manager and will hang onto that label as well, though he says he’ll be willing to hand it off to someone else if that proves necessary. Luhnow also suggested that there’s a strong commitment to skipper A.J. Hinch, whose contract expires after the current season but seems likely to be extended at some point.
  • The Rangers have a crowded infield mix now with Elvis Andrus re-joining the active roster. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explains, the organization hopes to keep all of its primary options on the field quite often, allowing Jurickson Profar to continue receiving ample opportunities while also letting Rougned Odor work through his struggles at the plate. Skipper Jeff Banister says this will be accomplished by utilizing third baseman Adrian Beltre as a DH with some frequency and allowing Andrus some extra rest. Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is going to attempt to add to his versatility by suiting up behind the dish, as Grant tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how this situation plays out for the struggling Rangers, who could weigh trades involving several of these players. In particular, Beltre (who’ll be a free agent at season’s end) and Andrus (who can opt out of his contract) seem to be plausible candidates.

Rangers Activate Elvis Andrus

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The Rangers announced Monday that they’ve activated shortstop Elvis Andrus from the 60-day disabled list and recalled right-hander Ricardo Rodriguez from Triple-A Round Rock. Catcher Jose Trevino was optioned to Double-A Frisco in one corresponding move, while Ryan Rua was optioned to Triple-A in another. The Rangers still need to make a 40-man move to accommodate the activation of Andrus from the 60-day DL, and they’ll do so closer to game time, according to the team.

Andrus has been out since being struck by a pitch and suffering a fractured right elbow back on April 11. While the injury didn’t require surgical repair, Andrus required a lengthy period of rest and rehab leading up to today’s activation. The timing was poor for the 29-year-old impending free agent, but he’ll still have three-plus months to build his case for potentially interested teams.

Of course, Andrus is far from a lock to even reach the open market. He’s in the fourth season of an eight-year contract extension that allows him to opt out of the remaining four years. While that seemed like an impossibility after Andrus’ bat failed to develop in the first couple years of the deal, Andrus’ offense has come around in the past couple of seasons.

Dating back to 2016, he’s hitting .301/.352/.459 with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals (in 68 attempts). At season’s end, he’ll have to decide whether to test free agency or forgo the opt-out provision to play out the final four years and $58MM in guaranteed money on his contract.

Rangers Notes: Choo, Andrus, Herrera

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The latest from Arlington…

  • Shin-Soo Choo has been hitting well and could gain some trade buzz at the deadline, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes.  The biggest obstacle, of course, is the approximately $55MM owed to Choo through the 2020 season, though the veteran outfielder has a .267/.375/.450 slash line and 11 homers through 296 PA this season.  While Choo hasn’t been a superstar since inking his seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas, he has generally been a productive bat for the Rangers, hitting .260/.361/.425 during his four-plus years with the club.  He does turn 36 next month, however, and doesn’t bring defensive value in either corner outfielder position.  One would think Texas would have to eat a significant portion of Choo’s contract to make a deal happen.
  • Also from Wilson’s piece, he argues that Elvis Andrus may be best served by not opting out of his contract after the season.  Andrus is owed $58MM through the 2022 season (plus a $15MM club option for 2023), so he’d be leaving a significant guarantee on the table if he opted out to join a potentially-uncertain free agent market.  It could be difficult for Andrus to top that number on the open market, as he turns 30 in August and he has missed almost all of this season due to a fractured elbow.  Wilson also notes that Andrus has a “disdain for the cold,” which could eliminate several big-market northern cities from his potential list of suitors.  Andrus also has an opt-out clause following the 2019 season, so it makes sense for him to stick with the Rangers for another year and then re-evaluate his options after what would hopefully be a healthier and productive 2019 campaign.
  • Ronald Herrera is likely headed for surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his throwing elbow, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports.  The surgery will officially end Herrera’s season, though he hasn’t pitched at all after suffering a shoulder problem during Spring Training; Fraley notes that the elbow issue emerged while Herrera was rehabbing his shoulder in the hopes of a midseason return.  Acquired in a trade from the Yankees last November, Herrera has a 3.60 ERA, 3.16 K/BB rate, and 6.9 K/9 over 627 2/3 career minor league innings in the New York, San Diego, and Oakland farm systems, with 112 of his 120 career games coming as a starting pitcher.  Herrera made his MLB debut last season, tossing three innings for the Yankees.

Rangers Claim Carlos Perez From Braves

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The Rangers announced that they’ve claimed catcher Carlos Perez off waivers from the Braves. Texas has opened a 40-man roster spot by transferring injured shortstop Elvis Andrus from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL. That move seemingly carries little impact on Andrus’ timetable for a return from an elbow fracture, as he was widely expected to miss around eight weeks with the injury anyhow. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets, Andrus can be activated on June 11.

Texas didn’t immediately reveal a corresponding 25-man roster move, as executive VP of communications John Blake indicated that said move will be announced tomorrow. However, it seems unlikely that the Rangers would carry three catchers on the big league roster, and Perez is out of minor league options, so it’s fair to speculate that current backup catcher Juan Centeno’s spot could be in jeopardy. It’s also possible, of course, that one of Centeno or Robinson Chirinos is dealing with a yet-undisclosed injury and could land on the disabled list, thus prompting the Texas organization to pick up some additional depth behind the dish.

Perez, 27, was traded from the Angels to the Braves on March 31 in the wake of an injury to Atlanta catcher Tyler Flowers. He appeared in eight games with the Braves but went just 3-for-21 with a walk and six strikeouts in 22 trips to the plate. That lack of production mirrors Perez’s meager output from a near-identical sample of 21 plate appearances in 2017 with the Halos. Overall, he’s hit just .122/.163/.195 over the past two seasons and .221/.264/.325 in a total of 617 big league plate appearances.

Of course, Perez’s calling card is his glovework behind the dish. The Venezuelan-born backstop has successfully halted 38 percent of stolen-base attempts against him at the big league level and has drawn generally positive marks for both his pitch-framing and pitch-blocking skills, per Baseball Prospectus.

It’s been an ugly start to the season for the season for the 28-year-old Centeno, which only makes it easier to speculate on his potential dismissal. He’s posted a tepid .147/.171/.176 slash in 35 plate appearances as the backup to Chirinos, and while he’s yet to have an opponent attempt a steal against him, Centeno has just a 13 percent caught-stealing rate as a Major League catcher.

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