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Red Sox Notes: Kluber, Bleier, Infield

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Boston’s offseason signing of veteran right-hander Corey Kluber hasn’t gone nearly as well as hoped, evidenced by the 37-year-old’s 6.26 ERA through seven trips to the hill thus far. The two-time AL Cy Young winner’s 17.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate are both career-worsts, as is his 88.6 mph average fastball. Kluber is in the 21st percentile of MLB pitchers or lower in terms of strikeout rate, opponents’ average exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate. His lone quality start of the season came on April 25 in Baltimore.

The Red Sox have stuck with the right-hander through his struggles, and manager Alex Cora indicated over the weekend that Kluber will make his next scheduled start on the road against the D-backs, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. That’ll mean the Red Sox will continue with a six-man rotation of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, a returning Garrett Whitlock — he’s expected to be activated from the injured list for Saturday’s start — and Kluber. However, Cora declined to commit to the permanence of that arrangement (or lack thereof). Asked if that group would continue to start for the foreseeable future, Cora replied: “For the foreseeable week, let’s put it that way.”

Whether the Sox would pull the plug on Kluber’s tenure entirely or look to move him to the bullpen, as they did with Nick Pivetta, is likely still being determined by the team’s front office. Certainly, the hope would be for Kluber to right the ship and begin to make good on the $10MM contract he signed over the winter, but there’s been little in the way of positives to foster optimism.

Boston’s bullpen, in general, has been solid this season, ranking 13th in the Majors with a 3.84 ERA. However, some cracks have begun to form over the past couple weeks. Closer Kenley Jansen has begun to struggle with his command and had a recent pair of blow-ups, while righty John Schreiber hit the injured list with a lat strain last week.

Last night, the Sox further announced that lefty Richard Bleier is headed to the injured list with shoulder inflammation. After a pair of tough outings early in the year, he’d been pitching well for about a month, working to a 2.77 ERA over a span of 13 innings from April 15 to May 15. However, Bleier was rocked for five runs (three earned) on six hits in 2 2/3 innings over his past two appearances before landing on the injured list.

The Sox didn’t provide a timetable for Bleier’s potential return. He’ll be replaced by fellow lefty Brennan Bernardino for the time being. The 31-year-old southpaw, claimed off waivers from Seattle earlier in the season, has a solid 3.65 ERA in 12 1/3 frames with the Sox since they picked him up, with a hearty 55% grounder rate and 5.6% walk rate helping to offset a tepid 18.5% strikeout rate.

Though Bleier will be out for at least two weeks, the Red Sox could soon be getting healthier in the infield. Christopher Smith of MassLive.com tweets that Yu Chang is slated to head out on a rehab assignment tomorrow, and Christian Arroyo could do the same as soon as Friday. Chang has been out for nearly a month since suffering a hamate fracture, while Arroyo’s been sidelined since early May due to a hamstring strain.

That pair’s impending return will push the Red Sox into some roster decisions, as both have been outperformed by current second baseman Enmanuel Valdez, who’s batting .270/.324/.476 with three homers and three steals in 68 plate appearances. Valdez has minor league options remaining, however, while both Chang and Arroyo are out of options. Boston has also gotten solid work in an even smaller sample from utilityman Pablo Reyes, whom they acquired from the A’s in exchange for cash 11 days ago. In 28 plate appearances, Reyes is batting .296/.321/.407 (8-for-27, three doubles, one walk, four strikeouts). Like Chang and Arroyo, he’s out of minor league options.

AL Notes: Whitlock, Red Sox, McCullers, Naylor, Donaldson

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Garrett Whitlock threw 79 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start today, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock will be activated from the 15-day IL in time to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks.  Whitlock’s return won’t push anyone out of the rotation for now, as Cora said that Boston will use six starters over their six games this week, sandwiched around Thursday’s off-day.  The team will re-assess the pitching situation after this full turn through a six-man rotation, Cora said, taking advantage of another off-day on May 29 to reset the staff as necessary.

Between injuries and inconsistency, Boston has had one of the weaker rotations in baseball, though Chris Sale, James Paxton, and Brayan Bello have all been sharp lately.  Cora has said in the past that the Sox plan to keep Whitlock as a starter, leaving Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber as the potential odd men out if the club does adopt a traditional five-man pitching staff.  Houck’s secondary numbers are at least better than his 5.48 ERA would indicate, but it has been a rough season all-around for Kluber, whose ERA has ballooned to 6.26 over 41 2/3 innings after he was hit hard in tonight’s start against the Padres.  Kluber signed a one-year (plus a 2024 club option) contract worth a guaranteed $10MM in the offseason, but that deal is already looking like a misfire given the veteran’s struggles.

More from the American League…

  • The Astros believe Lance McCullers Jr. can return “probably somewhere closer to the All-Star break, or after,” GM Dana Brown said in a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 AM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart).  There’s still some fluidity “depending on whether we can get him built up to start,” Brown noted.  While not the clearest of timelines, it does represent some kind of target for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a forearm strain early in Spring Training.  Jose Urquidy is also tentatively expected to return from the injured list around the All-Star break, which could give the Astros a badly needed one-two boost to their depleted rotation.
  • The Guardians called up Bo Naylor as the 27th man for their double-header with the Mets today, with Naylor going hitless in two plate appearances in the first game.  This was Naylor’s first call-up of the 2023 season, after the catching prospect made his MLB debut with five games in 2022.  Despite some mediocre numbers at throwing out baserunners at Triple-A this season, Naylor told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer and other reporters that “I feel I’m progressing well.  I had a lot of work at [Triple-A] Columbus on some transfer stuff.  It continues to progress every day.  As of late it’s shown pretty well.”  It remains to be seen when Naylor might get a longer look at the big league level, yet given how badly Cleveland’s offense has struggled, an argument can definitely be made that Naylor is already the best catching option in the organization.  Naylor is hitting .257/.391/.507 over 184 PA at Triple-A, while the Guards’ catching quartet of Mike Zunino, Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and David Fry are all badly struggling at the plate.
  • Now that the Yankees have designated Aaron Hicks for assignment, speculation has begun that Josh Donaldson could potentially join Hicks on the waiver wire when Donaldson is activated from the 10-day IL.  The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner looks at some of the reasons why it may be time for the Yankees to part ways with the former AL MVP, most simply the fact that DJ LeMahieu looks like a more productive third base option than Donaldson right now, and LeMahieu won’t have a regular place to play once Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton are healthy.  Even though the Yankees would have to eat the roughly $23.16MM in remaining salary owed to Donaldson, Kirschner writes that “for a team that makes as much money as the Yankees, it’s a rather minuscule amount that will make the roster fit more seamlessly if they decide it’s time to cut him loose.”

Zack Kelly Undergoes Nerve Procedure, Could Return This Season

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Red Sox right-hander Zack Kelly underwent an ulnar nerve transposition revision in his throwing elbow, the club announced. The Sox had announced a few weeks ago that Kelly would require surgery, though the procedure didn’t take place until today.

While Boston didn’t provide a recovery timetable, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the team isn’t ruling out a return in September. That the 28-year-old reliever could potentially make it back to an MLB mound this season counts as good news considering Kelly’s injury initially seemed disastrous. He was visibly distraught when he sustained it on a pitch during an April 12 outing in Tampa Bay. The general concern was he’d suffered some form of ligament damage, but an MRI instead revealed it was a nerve issue.

Fortunate as it is Kelly won’t require Tommy John surgery, he’s still in line for an extended absence. The Sox have already placed him on the 60-day injured list. He’ll be paid at the MLB minimum rate while he recovers.

In other Boston pitching news, righty Garrett Whitlock went for a medical evaluation today. Whitlock himself is on the injured list due to ulnar neuritis, though his issue seems far less serious than Kelly’s. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic reports that Whitlock avoided any new symptoms during today’s examination (Twitter link). According to McCaffrey, he’s been cleared to begin throwing from 45 feet.

Whitlock will be out until at least the second week of May. It’s not clear if or how long beyond the minimal stint he’ll require on the shelf, though it’s a relief he’s throwing within five days of his IL placement. Manager Alex Cora has already told reporters the Sox will keep Whitlock in the rotation — where he’s pitched this year after bouncing between starting and relief last season — whenever he’s ready to return.

Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Rotation, Casas

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Despite a series of injuries to Garrett Whitlock and a history of success in the bullpen, the Red Sox are planning to keep the 26-year-old righty in the rotation once he returns from the injured list, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Manager Alex Cora plainly stated multiple times this weekend that the organization views Whitlock as a starter, and he pushed back on the notion that pitching on consecutive days, being ready to throw nearly everyday, warming up and sitting down without getting into a game (i.e. all the rigors that come with being a relief pitcher) would help Whitlock remain healthier.

Whitlock has a career 4.75 ERA in 55 innings as a starter compared to a 2.24 mark in 112 2/3 frames as a reliever, but he’s not yet had a lengthy audition in the rotation. Part of that is due to health issues — he had Tommy John surgery in 2020, missed time this year recovering from hip surgery, and is now with ulnar neuritis in his right arm — but the Sox remain committed to giving him an opportunity to work as a member of the starting staff.

Turning a lineup over has proven difficult for Whitlock to this point in his young career. Opponents have batted .275/.313/.363 against him the first time around as a starter, but that jumps to .272/.313/.533 on the second trip and .300/.364/.700 on the third time through (albeit, in a sample of just 22 plate appearances).

The Boston rotation currently consists of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. Houck, who’s also hoping to establish himself as a viable long-term rotation piece for the Sox, is the only member of that group with an ERA south of 5.00. Sale, Kluber and Bello are all north of six earned runs per nine frames in their limited 2023 work thus far. Given those struggles and the fact that Kluber (signed through ’23) and Sale (signed through ’24) are relatively short-term pieces, it makes sense to see whether Whitlock, who is signed through 2026 with a pair of club options thereafter, can eventually find his footing in a rotation setting.

One potential arm on the mend is lefty James Paxton, who could impact the starting staff sooner than later. The veteran southpaw hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since April 2021 thanks to Tommy John surgery, a significant lat strain and a more minor hamstring strain, but he’s made five rehab appearances and was particularly sharp his last time out, with 5 1/3 shutout frames and an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. It’s a stark contrast from an April 19 rehab appearance against the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where Paxton was tattooed for seven runs while only recording two outs.

MLB.com notes that Paxton will be reevaluated today to determine whether another rehab start is necessary. He’s coming up on the end of his 30-day minor league rehab window next week but would have time to make one more Triple-A outing if the organization deems it best for him.

In the lineup, the Sox have seen struggles from another hopeful long-term piece: first baseman Triston Casas, who’s hitting just .133/.283/.293 through his first 92 trips to the plate. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey writes that the team expects to stick with Casas at the MLB level for now, rather than sending him to Triple-A Worcester for any kind of reset. McCaffrey notes that manager Alex Cora cited Casas’ pitch recognition as a plus, despite the rocky average. Casas’ issues haven’t been chasing pitches off the plate so much as fouling off the in-zone pitches he needs to be punishing, Cora observed.

Casas currently has a 30.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate, which clocks in just shy of the 31.5% MLB average. He’s been more passive in the zone, however, with his 62.8% swing rate on pitches over the plate checking in five percentage points south of average. He’s averaging a hearty 90.7 mph off the bat when does put the ball in play and has three homers on the year, but Casas has also fanned in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

The Sox aren’t teeming with alternatives, however, particularly with Bobby Dalbec sporting a near-40% strikeout rate in Triple-A since his demotion. Veteran Justin Turner has started six games at first base for the Sox this season, so he’d presumably be in line for more work there if the team eventually decides that a minor league breather would be best for Casas.

Red Sox Place Garrett Whitlock On IL With Ulnar Neuritis

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The Red Sox announced today that right-hander Garrett Whitlock has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow ulnar neuritis. Fellow righty Brayan Bello was recalled to take his spot on the active roster.

The club didn’t provide any more information about Whitlock’s injury, so the severity isn’t publicly known at this time. It’s possible that they are still doing more testing, as ulnar neuritis comes with a wide range of possible outcomes. The ulnar nerve is commonly known as the “funny bone” due to the tingling sensation it causes when agitated. Neuritis is the medical term for when there is inflammation of the nerve.

It’s too early to draw conclusions but the diagnosis is nonetheless concerning. Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs was recently diagnosed with ulnar neuritis and just a few days later was reported to require Tommy John surgery. That’s not to say that Whitlock is inevitably headed down the same path, as Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano was diagnosed with the same ailment in April of 2021 but was back after just 10 days.

Whitlock already had Tommy John surgery back in 2019 but said he isn’t concerned he’s headed down that path again. He told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, he felt some tingling recently but doesn’t think it’s at all similar to his torn UCL from years ago. He’s hasn’t had an MRI yet.

That’s surely encouraging, but Whitlock and the Red Sox will be in wait-and-see mode until it can be discovered exactly which part of the spectrum his injury is on. He’s attempting to make the transition to full-time starting this year after working primarily in relief for the past two seasons. He began the year on the injured list after being delayed in spring by last year’s hip surgery. He’s only made three starts on the year so far because of that, registering a 6.19 ERA in that small sample.

He posted a 1.96 ERA out of the bullpen in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. That instilled enough confidence in the club that they signed him to an $18.75MM extension through 2026 with two club options after that. They then tried to stretch him out last year but injuries eventually pushed him back into the bullpen.

Whitlock was scheduled to start tomorrow’s game but that will now presumably fall to Bello, who just started for the big league club on Sunday. The young prospect is seen as a future building block of the rotation but has posted a 9.82 ERA in his two starts so far this year. Both Bello and Whitlock began the year on the IL and the club briefly ran out a six-man rotation when they returned but Bello was sent down earlier this week. He’d normally have to stay down for 15 days after being optioned but an exception is made when another player goes on the IL.

It’s possible that it could be another short stay in the rotation for Bello alongside Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber. Lefty James Paxton has been on the IL all year but has made four rehab starts already as he tries to get back into game shape. He’s only made six major league starts since the end of 2019, with Tommy John surgery wiping out most of his 2021. He was working his way back to the mound in 2022 when he suffered a lat strain that killed his chances. His subsequent attempt at a return this spring was set back by a hamstring injury.

Pitching Notes: Red Sox, Kahnle, Lorenzen

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The Red Sox are on the verge of a boost to their rotation, with starters Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock set to return. Whitlock will be the first, with Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reporting that Whitlock will pitch Tuesday against the Rays.

Whitlock has been taking a little extra time to prepare for the season following hip surgery in September. While he’s excelled mostly as a reliever for Boston, the team came into the year planning to use him as a starter and it appears they’re not deviating from that. Whitlock owns a 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 relief innings, and a 4.15 ERA in nine starts and 39 innings over his two big league seasons.

It’s unclear yet who will drop out of the rotation, although Kutter Crawford’s spot would appear most at risk. Boston doesn’t get a day off until April 27, so the boost to their struggling rotation is timely. Whitlock’s return could be closely followed by that of Bello. The youngster is scheduled to make another rehab start on Tuesday, with the hope being he’ll go for six innings. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes, manager Alex Cora wouldn’t commit to him coming of the IL after that, but if he goes that sort of length without any issues then a return can’t be far away.

Bello, 23, worked to a 4.71 ERA over 57 1/3 innings last year. It was a promising rookie season for Bello, and underlying numbers such as FIP (2.94) looked a lot more favorably on his work. Bello had been dealing with forearm tightness during spring training, forcing his delayed start to the season. Like Whitlock, he figures to be a key part of any success Boston’s rotation might have this year.

Here’s some more from around the game:

  • Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle was transferred to the 60-day IL today, meaning the earliest he’ll return will be the end of May. That’s a significant blow for a banged up Yankees bullpen that also lost Jonathan Loaisiga to the IL today. Per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, manager Aaron Boone did not consider Kahnle to have suffered a setback as a reason for the move to the 60-day, but instead that they just anticipated he’d have a longer buildup. Boone added that he could see Kahnle appearing in minor league rehab games in early May. Kahnle re-joined the Yankees this winter on a two-year, $11.5MM deal.
  • The Tiger announced (Twitter) a series of medical updates, including that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to make a rehab start Triple-A today. Lorenzen did indeed make that start, going 2 1/3 innings (56 pitches) and giving up four earned runs. Lorenzen is returning from a left groin strain. The team also announced that right-hander Beau Brieske continues to receive further medical evaluation on his right upper arm discomfort. Meanwhile, starter Casey Mize is playing catch three times a week and Tarik Skubal is playing catch six times weekly.

Injury Notes: Dickerson, Whitlock, Gonsolin, Haniger, Slater

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Corey Dickerson left today’s game due to tightness in his left calf, and Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the outfielder will receive an MRI tomorrow.  This isn’t the first time that Dickerson has dealt with such an injury, as a strain in his left calf cost him about a month of Dickerson’s 2022 season with the Cardinals.

Washington signed Dickerson to a one-year, $2.25MM deal over the offseason, adding a left-handed veteran to their mix of right-handed hitting and mostly less-experienced young outfielders.  Dickerson was slated to get the bulk of work in left field whenever a righty starter was on the mound, and considering how the Nats are rebuilding, Dickerson will likely be shopped at the trade deadline if he is performing well.  Of course, staying healthy is the first step, and Dickerson and the Nationals can only hope that tomorrow’s MRI doesn’t reveal anything serious.

More on other injury situations from around the majors…

  • Garrett Whitlock made a Triple-A rehab start yesterday, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock is planned for one more outing with Double-A Portland on Thursday.  Assuming all goes well, the Sox would then activate Whitlock from the 15-day injured list for his next outing and his 2023 debut.  The right-hander needed a little more time to prepare following hip surgery last September, thus necessitating the IL visit at the start of the season.  The Red Sox are planning to use Whitlock as a full-time member of the starting rotation this year, after hip problems interrupted his first stint in the rotation in 2022.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that Tony Gonsolin is intended to throw a bullpen session on Sunday and then a live batting practice session at the team’s extended spring camp on Wednesday.  Gonsolin suffered an ankle sprain in early March and is expected to need until late April to return to the L.A. rotation, but the righty appears to be making good progress in recovery.
  • The Giants provided media (including MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado) with several updates on injured players, including the news that Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater will both be re-evaluated this week in San Francisco when the Giants begin their first homestand of the year.  Both players began the season on the 10-day IL, with Haniger dealing with a Grade 1 oblique strain and Slater a hamstring strain.  A more concrete timetable might be known after next week’s check-ins, though the team did have some hope that Haniger (who suffered his strain on March 10) would be ready for Opening Day, and Slater was given an initial estimate of a 3-4 week recovery period.  Slater is starting to progress to baseball activities in his rehab, so it would appear he has a chance of returning within that initial window.

Latest On The Red Sox’ Rotation

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The Red Sox’ rotation will likely be down several starters to begin the season, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that each of Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Paxton had already been trending in this direction, but Whitlock and Bello now join him in missing at least the beginning of the 2023 season. Cotillo notes that Whitlock, who got a late start while recovering from hip surgery is expected to be ready sometime in mid-April. Bello, who battled forearm tightness early in camp, should follow shortly thereafter. Paxton isn’t expected to return until May at the earliest.

The Red Sox announced this week that offseason signee Corey Kluber would get the nod on Opening Day. Left-hander Chris Sale, eyeing for a rebound campaign after a dreadful run of injuries in recent seasons, is slated to start the second game of the season. Righties Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and likely Kutter Crawford should round out the quintet to begin the year.

With Whitlock and Bello both expected to return by the end of the season’s first month, though, the rotation will likely be reconfigured early in the regular season. Crawford, who struggled to a 5.47 ERA in 77 2/3 frames last season, figures to be the odd man out once either Whitlock or Bello is able to reclaim a  spot in the starting staff. In that case, Crawford would figure to serve as optionable rotation depth alongside Josh Winckowski.

Assuming everyone remains healthy by the time both Whitlock and Bello are ready to return, the Sox will be faced with a decision between Houck and Pivetta for the final rotation spot. Pivetta made a league-leading 33 starts last season and paced the team with 179 2/3 innings pitched. That impressive volume came with mediocre results, however, as the right-hander posted a slightly below-average 4.56 ERA during the 2022 campaign.

Houck, meanwhile, has been a successful pitcher both as a starter (3.22 ERA in 92 1/3 innings) and a reliever (2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings) to this point in his career. The former first-rounder has long been seen as a potential rotation piece at Fenway, but the Red Sox were noncommittal early in the offseason when asked about his role. Houck also had back surgery late last season and ended the year on the injured list after making 28 of his 32 appearances as a reliever. It’s easy to see why the Sox would be intrigued by the idea of Houck upping his workload this year and even getting some more run in the starting staff, but he’s coming off a 60-inning season that ended in back surgery; a jump to a full starter’s workload would be something of a surprise.

Of course, this needn’t be a strict either-or proposition. Situations like this tend to work themselves out, often as injuries pop up elsewhere on a pitching staff. Getting Houck some early rotation work and perhaps moving him to a multi-inning relief/sixth starter role once everyone is healthy would be a good means of managing his workload as he ramps up from last year’s 60 innings.

Even if the plan is to ride Houck as a starter as long as possible, that doesn’t mean Pivetta will be decidedly forced out of the rotation. Given that each of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Kluber and especially Paxton have some notable injuries within the past few seasons, it’s likely the Sox will need to shuffle through quite a few starters. All six of their top options figure to spend ample time in the rotation this summer, and they’ll also have depth options like Crawford, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata as candidates for rotation work down in the minors.

Injury Notes: Whitlock, Ahmed, Vargas, Reynolds

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Right-hander Garrett Whitlock is still on the mend from September hip surgery, though Red Sox skipper Alex Cora indicated this morning there’s a possibility he won’t be ready for Opening Day (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). Whitlock has been throwing off a mound but is not yet performing pitchers’ fielding practice, and Cora stated that if the right-hander isn’t ready for the start of the season, “he’s not going to lose too much time.”

One of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, the 26-year-old Whitlock has pitched 151 2/3 innings for Boston over the past two seasons, logging a sharp 2.73 ERA with a strong 26.8% strikeout rate against a brilliant 5.3% walk rate. The Red Sox have used him far more out of the bullpen than the rotation, but he’s slated to get a look as a starter in 2023, joining the likes of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Nick Pivetta in the mix for rotation work. Fellow righty Tanner Houck and top prospect Brayan Bello are both options to step into the rotation, should Whitlock need to miss any time early in the season.

A few more health situations to monitor as spring camps continue to ramp up…

  • D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed received a cortisone injection in his right forearm and will be shut down for at least five days, writes Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. The 32-year-old Ahmed (33 next month) was dealing with inflammation and tightness in his forearm, and the hope is that the injection and some downtime will clear it up and avoid a lengthy absence. Ahmed was limited to 129 games in 2021 and just 17 games in 2022 thanks to a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery last year. If healthy, he’ll be back in line for regular reps at shortstop, where he’s ranked among the game’s best defenders at any position. A healthy 2023 campaign is of particular importance for Ahmed, as he’s entering the final season of a four-year, $32MM contract and is slated to become a free agent for the first time next offseason.
  • Infielder Miguel Vargas, who suffered a hairline fracture of his pinkie finger earlier this spring, has resumed swinging a bat, writes Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The 23-year-old Vargas, widely considered to be one of the sport’s 100  best prospects, scuffled through a 50-plate appearance MLB debut in 2022 (.170/.200/.255) but ripped through Triple-A pitching at a torrid .304/.404/.511 pace (129 wRC+). He’s the favorite for everyday work at second base to begin the season, though obviously the health of his finger will determine his readiness for the season. Vargas is in the Dodgers’ lineup for the second time in three spring games today, but he’s batting ninth and isn’t expected to swing during any plate appearances today (he walked and struck out on Saturday). He’ll still get some work at second base and use today’s game to work on tracking pitches in the batter’s box. It’s not clear yet when he’ll begin swinging the bat in a game setting.
  • Reds infielder Matt Reynolds is headed for an MRI after exiting Saturday’s Cactus League game with a quadriceps injury, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 31-year-old Reynolds, in camp as a non-roster invitee, logged a career-high 272 plate appearances with Cincinnati in 2022, slashing .246/.320/.332 while appearing at every position other than catcher. Reynolds is competing with fellow non-roster invitees like Chad Pinder, Alejo Lopez and Jason Vosler for a spot on manager David Bell’s bench to begin the 2023 season.

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

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