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Blue Jays Notes: Price, Donaldson, Bautista, Floyd

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Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke to Jim Bowden about the decision not to re-sign David Price this offseason (audio link). “Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision. … To me, it comes down to we had a very, very, very challenging pitching dilemma here in that we lost him, we lost [Marco] Estrada. We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”

More from Shapiro and more on the Jays…

  • Within that same interview, Shapiro also said that he discussed multiple concepts with Josh Donaldson’s representatives before agreeing to a two-year, $29MM contract. The club explored long-term contract scenarios that would buy out free-agent years as well as three-year deals to lock in all of his remaining arbitration seasons and also just straight one-year deals. “Josh is a guy that not only performed at an elite level from a talent perspective but provided the energy, leadership and competitive edge that, to me, fueled this team last year,” said Shapiro of the reigning American League MVP.
  • With Donaldson’s contract situation now resolved, the club can turn its attention to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Shapiro explained that the team has a clear desire to extend each player, but the question of what it will take to do so is significant. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron attempts to price out an extension for Bautista, who will turn 36 in October and is thus considerably older than the typical extension candidate. Even elite position players in Bautista’s age class have been limited to a maximum of four years, writes Cameron, citing the contracts for Victor Martinez, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Beltran as examples of older stars that have taken four (or, in Beltran’s case, three) years on the open market. As Cameron notes, a good bit of decline will need to be expected over the term of the contract, and it’s likely that Bautista would look like an overvalued asset in a four-year deal’s final season. Ultimately, after making a four-year WAR projection and forecasting for some year-to-year regression, Cameron arrives at a four-year, $75MM pact as a reasonable price.
  • There’s some sense to that deal for both sides, to be sure, though I personally wonder if Cameron’s general hypothesis that Bautista would land at four years and $90MM on the open market next year undersells his earning potential. Assuming a characteristically productive season, Bautista could be the premier bat on a thin free-agent market, and age notwithstanding, a $22.5MM annual value isn’t the top of the spectrum for premium power hitters. I’d wager that a current Blue Jays extension would have to top $80MM in total value, as I can envision enough interest in his bat to push that earning ceiling closer to, or even north of $100MM on the open market, either via an increased annual value or via a club tacking on a fifth year (at a much lower rate) as a means of pushing its offer over the top. (For those interested in further reading on Bautista, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk profiled his extension candidacy back in November.)
  • Gavin Floyd’s strong finish to the 2015 season in Cleveland impressed not only Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins (both were still with the Indians at the time), but a number of Blue Jays scouts as well, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Floyd’s fastball sat at 92 mph and touched 95 mph, writes Nicholson-Smith, and with three additional breaking pitches in his arsenal, Atkins, Shapiro and the scouting staff deemed him worthy of a 40-man roster spot if that was the final component needed to get Floyd to Toronto. “He has the make-up of a starter with a repeatable delivery and a four-pitch arsenal,” said Atkins. “We’ve also seen his work ethic up close and we know it’s going to be there.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Floyd doesn’t need to provide much value to justify such a minimal investment.

Blue Jays Sign Gavin Floyd

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SATURDAY, 12:17PM: The move is official, as per a Blue Jays press release.

SATURDAY, 11:59AM: Floyd’s deal with the Jays is a Major League contract, Gideon Turk of Blue Jays Plus was first to report (via Twitter).  Floyd will earn a $1MM base salary and can get up to $1MM in incentives based on how many days he spends in the 25-man roster.  He’ll also receive $500K for 90 days on the roster, $250K for 120 days and another $250K for 140 days, per Jon Heyman (Twitter links).

THURSDAY: Right-hander Gavin Floyd “appears headed for [a] deal with [the] Blue Jays,” Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter). SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the Moye Sports client is indeed in agreement with the Jays, pending a physical.

Floyd, who turned 33 just last week, would serve as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Blue Jays, though it’s tough to imagine he’d be promised a spot in the starting five after throwing just 92 Major League innings across the past three seasons. The longtime White Sox righty underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2013 season and returned with a flourish with the Braves in 2014 (2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings) before missing the remainder of the season due to a fractured olecranon bone in his right elbow. Somewhat astoundingly, Floyd suffered the exact same injury in Spring Training with the Indians last year. He was thought to be lost for the season, although he did return to toss 13 1/3 effective innings of relief late in the year. Given the lengthy list of recent injuries, Floyd seemed like a candidate for a minor league deal, though details on his agreement with Toronto remain unclear.

At his best, Floyd has proven to be a highly capable mid-rotation arm, although it’s obviously been quite some time since he was healthy enough to display that over the course of a full season. Nevertheless, from 2008-12, Floyd averaged 190 innings of 4.12 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent ground-ball rate. When adjusting for Floyd’s hitter-friendly home park and the heightened offensive output league-wide during that period, Floyd was about eight percent better than the league-average pitcher in terms of both ERA and FIP.

Clearly, president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins, both former executives with the Indians, think highly of Floyd, as this is the second time he’s signed with a team under that duo’s leadership. Floyd had reportedly drawn interest from the division-rival Orioles on a minor league pact earlier this offseason and had also been speculatively mentioned as a fit for the Rangers, among other clubs.

Floyd will look to crack a rotation that currently has Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ locked in place. Toronto has no shortage of candidates for the fifth spot, with Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez and Aaron Sanchez representing rotation options on the 40-man roster (to say nothing of non-roster invitees like Scott Diamond, Roberto Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc and Brad Penny as potential depth pieces to stash at Triple-A).

Orioles Interested In Minors Deal With Gavin Floyd

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Orioles manager Buck Showalter told reporters, including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun, that the team has invited right-hander Gavin Floyd in for a tryout at their mini-camp. Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com adds (also via Twitter) that Baltimore is considering a Spring Training invite for the Maryland native and Moye Sports Associates client, should the audition go well. The O’s have long been interested in the local product, having been connected to him in multiple offseasons prior to this one. As MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes in writing about Showalter’s comments, the O’s made a two-year offer to Floyd prior to the 2014 season.

Floyd, who turns 33 later this month, spent the 2015 season in the Indians organization. He’s been largely out of action across the past three seasons due to a slew of injuries, beginning with Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2013 season. Floyd returned strong with Atlanta in 2014 and hurled 54 1/3 innings of 2.65 ERA ball, but he fractured the olecranon bone on the tip of his right elbow and was forced to miss the remainder of the season after that promising start. Incredibly, after inking a one-year deal with Cleveland last winter, Floyd suffered the exact same injury in Spring Training — an olecranon fracture — that cost him the bulk of the 2015 campaign.

Floyd did surface with the Indians in the season’s final month, throwing 13 1/3 innings with a 2.70 ERA, seven strikeouts and four walks out of the Cleveland bullpen. Late in the season, Floyd told reporters that he because he enjoyed the city of Cleveland and loved how he was treated by the organization, he’d be interested in re-signing. However, the resurgence of Josh Tomlin and the emergence of young right-hander Cody Anderson left the Indians pretty well stocked with rotation depth.

The Orioles, on the other hand, could very much use some depth pieces for the rotation. Baltimore stands to lose left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, its most consistent starter, to free agency this offseason. That would thin out what was already a very underwhelming group of starters in 2015. The collective unit took a step backwards in large part due to struggles by stalwart Chris Tillman and his fellow right-hander, Miguel Gonzalez. In addition to that duo, the Orioles have the unproven-but-promising Kevin Gausmann as well as newcomer Vance Worley and the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez. Right-hander Mike Wright, too, is in the rotation picture, although he posted a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings last season in his Major League debut.

Central Notes: Stearns, Counsell, Indians, Machado

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Freshly appointed Brewers general manager David Stearns held court with the media at Petco Park today, and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel runs down a number of the topics addressed by Stearns. Perhaps most notably, Stearns characterized his first impressions of manager Craig Counsell as positive. Building a relationship with Counsell is one of the first things on Stearns’ to-do list as GM. “It’s an enormous relationship, and it needs to be a relationship that has mutual respect and mutual trust,” said Stearns of the manager-GM dynamic. “So far, we’ve gotten along very well. … Throughout the entire industry, Craig has a very positive reputation. It was also clear that he was held in high regard within the organization and up through ownership.”

A bit more from Stearns and the game’s Central divisions…

  • Also high on Stearns’ agenda is deciding on an assistant GM and an organizational structure, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. Via Haudricourt, Stearns spoke about the characteristics he’d seek in an AGM. “Ultimately, you’re going to want one who complements your skill set and helps you run the front office from a variety of different aspects,” he explained. Stearns said he’s spoken to a number of baseball ops executives that pre-date him, presumably including Ash, but has yet to come to any firm personnel decisions. “I’ve had conversations with a number of them and I think a number of them will stay,” he added.
  • The Indians will have a number of roster decisions to make following the season, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Gavin Floyd, Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles and Ryan Webb can all become free agents, and each has expressed an interest in remaining with Cleveland. Raburn could be retained via his $3.5MM club option, as the team will decide between that sum and a $1MM buyout. Hoynes also notes that Cleveland has as many as six, if not seven arbitration eligible players (depending on Jeff Manship’s Super Two eligibility). Closer Cody Allen, in particular, could be in line for a multi-year deal, per Hoynes, though that comment seemed to be speculative.
  • Though adding some additional positions to his repertoire would help Dixon Machado’s chances of making the Tigers’ roster in 2015, the team has no plans to play him anywhere but shortstop, manager Brad Ausmus told MLive.com’s James Schmehl. The Tigers view Machado as a pure shortstop, though that complicates his path to playing time in the Majors due to the presence of Jose Iglesias. Nonetheless, Ausmus was firm in his belief: “Just a shortstop, at this point. I don’t know that I’d put Machado in the (Andrew) Romine category. Although he played third base a couple of games in Toledo, I wouldn’t throw him into a utility role.” Machado, the Tigers’ No. 14 prospect, per MLB.com, hit .286/.375/.404 across two levels in 2014 but has struggled in both Triple-A and the Majors this year. Scouting reports on the 23-year-old rave about his glove but wonder if he’ll hit enough to be a regular in the Majors.

AL Central Notes: Holland, Floyd, Rondon

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Congratulations are in order for the Royals tonight, as their victory, combined with a Twins loss, means that Kansas City has officially clinched the American League Central Division championship. The Royals had their doubters — myself included — but have taken the division in decisive fashion. As the champagne flows at Kauffman Stadium, here are a few notes from around the division…

  • Greg Holland will probably undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, as the Royals announced earlier today that he has a “significant” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and will seek a second opinion next week. Manager Ned Yost said at the time that Holland’s ligament damage may date back to last August. As Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets, trainer Nick Kenney likened the injury to that of Masahiro Tanaka, who suffered a small tear in his own UCL last summer but has pitched without issue in 2015. That would seemingly indicate that Holland’s initial tear was relatively minor in nature but has been exacerbated by pitching through it in the 2014 playoffs and throughout the 2015 season.
  • MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes that Holland’s injury brings his future with the Royals into question. As I noted at the time the news broke, Holland’s $8.25MM salary and arbitration eligibility this winter make it a certainty that he’ll be non-tendered this offseason if and when he undergoes Tommy John surgery. Flanagan writes that a two-year deal with a marginal 2016 base salary and an incentive-laden structure in 2017 could be a solution, though I wonder if new agent Scott Boras will be amenable to such a possibility. GM Dayton Moore hopes to see Holland remain with the Royals in the future, per Flanagan, though Moore avoided making any sort of definitive statement: “I will say that Holly is one of the very best competitors I’ve ever been around. I admire him a great deal. I hope he’s a part of our organization the remainder of his career.”
  • Right-hander Gavin Floyd has missed most of the season after re-fracturing the olecranon bone in his right elbow, but he’s returned to the Indians’ bullpen late this season and tells Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer that he’d be interested in returning to Cleveland. “Despite the circumstances of not being able to play, I loved getting to know the guys and the city,” Floyd explained. “…I’d definitely be interested (in resigning) for sure.” Floyd has received strong bottom-line results working out of the ’pen, tallying a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 innings since returning. Floyd’s 6-to-4 K/BB ratio is less impressive, but his velocity is strong as ever. There’s been speculation about Cleveland perhaps trading a young starter to fill needs elsewhere on the roster, and as Hoynes notes, Floyd could be brought back as veteran depth to fill out the rotation should that scenario play out.
  • Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos touched on the organization’s decision to send Bruce Rondon home for the season due to his effort level in an appearance with Matt Dery on 105.1 radio in Detroit (audio link). Without getting too specific, Castellanos noted that some in the clubhouse were “unhappy with his antics” but still said the move by management came as a surprise to him. Castellanos said that he and others in the organization feel that Rondon can still be a valuable part of the team going forward, adding that he feels Rondon has the raw talent to be an “All-Star caliber closer” but now needs to harness the necessary intangibles to realize that potential.

AL Central Notes: Johnson, Berrios, Floyd, Indians

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White Sox right-hander Erik Johnson’s resurgent season at Triple-A has placed the former top prospect firmly on the map for a rotation spot in 2016, GM Rick Hahn tells Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. After a 6.73 ERA in 105 2/3 innings at Triple-A last season, Johnson has turned in a 2.37 mark over 132 2/3 frames with 9.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. As Kane writes, Johnson will be working in relief initially, but he’s likely to make some starts later this month in what could be a preview for the 2016 season.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The Twins will not call up top pitching prospect Jose Berrios this season, GM Terry Ryan told reporters, including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. The 21-year-old’s innings total is a concern to the Twins, Ryan explained, especially considering the fact that Berrios is of slighter frame than many pitchers. Berrios ranks as one of the game’s best prospects, including No. 23 on MLB.com’s Top 100, No. 7 per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel, No. 21 per ESPN’s Keith Law and No. 19 per Baseball America.
  • The Indians activated right-hander Gavin Floyd from the DL when rosters expanded in September, and manager Terry Francona told reporters, including MLB.com’s Jamie Ross, that Floyd is healthy enough to work out of the bullpen in the season’s final month. Francona said the Indians, however, owe it to Floyd to be careful with his surgically repaired right elbow because “he’s got more career ahead of him.” Floyd signed a one-year, $4MM contract this winter and re-fractured the olecranon bone in his right elbow in Spring Training — an injury that was initially believed to have ended his season. He made his Indians debut today, though, and fired a perfect inning from the ’pen.
  • Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel looks at some of departing Indians president Mark Shapiro’s comments from his press conference announcing his move to Toronto. Meisel breaks down Shapiro’s response to his biggest challenge with Cleveland — Shapiro diplomatically hinted at payroll constraints while noting that market size can’t be used as an excuse for lack of results — as well as Shapiro’s comments on the Michael Bourn/Nick Swisher signings.

Central Notes: Floyd, Cingrani, Morales, Harris

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Indians right-hander Gavin Floyd, who re-fractured his right olecranon last week, is set to have surgery on Tuesday, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Floyd, who has pitched sparingly over the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and the original olecranon fracture in his right elbow, was expected to serve as a veteran presence in a largely inexperienced Indians rotation after signing a one-year, $4MM deal. Now, however, Cleveland is unlikely to receive any contribution from Floyd this year.

Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani is being shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The move comes as somewhat of a surprise, as most figured the left-hander would step into the rotation following the trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. Cingrani has worked as a starter in the past and racked up excellent strikeout numbers, but he’s had shoulder issues as well, so perhaps the team feels this will keep him healthier. Cuban right-hander Raisel Igesias, meanwhile, will be stretched out to work as a starting pitcher.
  • Franklin Morales is building a strong case to take the injured Tim Collins’ spot as a left-hander in the Royals’ bullpen, writes Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. Morales has fired six scoreless innings and impressed Kansas City decision-makers. Brandon Finnegan is a well-regarded prospect and could have a shot at making the team, but the team still would like to develop him as a starter and he also hasn’t pitched as well this spring. No final decisions have been made on the situation, writes McCullough.
  • The Tigers added another player to camp yesterday when they reportedly signed Jiwan James, and another addition may on the horizon as well. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the team may add veteran infielder Brendan Harris, presumably on a minor league deal. The 34-year-old Harris is a career .256/.314/.381 hitter in the Majors, with his best seasons coming between the Twins and Rays in 2007-08. Harris hasn’t played in the Majors much since 2010, however, receiving just 117 plate appearances with the Angels and hitting .206/.252/.355.

Gavin Floyd Re-Fractures Olecranon In Right Elbow

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MARCH 12: Per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter), Indians GM Chris Antonetti said on a television appearance that Floyd re-fractured the olecranon bone in his right elbow — the same injury that ended his season last year.

MARCH 10: Indians righty Gavin Floyd again has a stress fracture in his right elbow and will be out indefinitely, the club announced (Twitter links). Treatment options are still being assessed, but surgery is a possibility.

This was essentially the worst-case scenario for Cleveland when it promised Floyd $4MM to pitch for the club this season. While there was a reasonable chance that he would prove a bargain, at this point it appears that he will likely occupy a relatively significant amount of payroll space that might otherwise have been allocated to a more pressing need.

The team emphasized that a precise timeline is still dependent upon the course of action chosen, but it seems safe to assume that the Indians will not expect any contribution this year. That does not necessarily mean that an outside addition will be required, of course, as the team already had a good number of interesting young arms in its stable.

Central Notes: Sale, Cubs, Floyd

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The White Sox have announced that star pitcher Chris Sale has suffered an avulsion fracture in his right foot, sustained Friday in an accident at his home. (GM Rick Hahn says Sale sustained the injury while unloading his truck, according to CSNChicago.com’s Dan Hayes on Twitter.) Sale is expected to be out three weeks. That means he should return to pitching before the start of the season, although it remains to be seen how the timing of the injury will affect his preparations. The White Sox say they’ll evaluate whether Sale will be ready for Opening Day once he undergoes more tests. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Most of the Cubs’ top picks from their 2010 draft haven’t panned out, but the team could still get good value from several of their later-round picks, including Matt Szczur, Dallas Beeler and Eric Jokisch, the Associated Press writes. “I was the first one out of the draft class to be called up, and everyone seemed to follow after that,” says Beeler. “I felt like I got the ball rolling for everybody on that. That was a good feeling.” Beeler and Jokisch got good results in their first exposure to the big leagues last season, although neither are likely to make the team out of Spring Training after the Cubs added pitching talent this offseason.
  • Pitcher Gavin Floyd says he signed with the Indians in part because he felt manager Terry Francona and pitching coach Mickey Callaway could help him, Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer writes. Also, Floyd liked the Indians’ chances of winning and welcomed a return to the AL Central, with which he became familiar as a member of the White Sox from 2007-2013. Floyd has also been limited the past two years due to arm injuries, and the Indians have a fairly good track record of getting the most from bounce-back pitchers like Scott Kazmir and Carl Pavano. After missing much of the 2014 season with a broken bone in his elbow, Floyd has been pitching off a mound in Spring Training.

Ohio Notes: Floyd, Murphy, Howard

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With the addition of right-handed pitcher Gavin Floyd, the Indians have a wealth of rotation options, writes Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The unit is more about projection than proven ability, which is why the club signed Floyd. Cleveland now has seven starting pitchers competing to fill out the rotation behind Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Zach McAllister, who is expected to join the bullpen, is out of options, as are Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. The latter pair and Floyd are thought to have roles locked down, which leaves T.J. House, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, and McAllister to battle for the last spot – assuming Floyd is healthy.

  • Speaking of Floyd, other pitchers with an injury history, like Brett Anderson, Kris Medlen, Luke Hochevar, and Justin Masterson signed for more guaranteed money than Floyd this offseason. That’s why Floyd was able to sign for $4MM plus another $6MM in incentives despite missing 2013 for Tommy John surgery and the second half of 2014 with a broken elbow. From his perspective, Floyd chose Cleveland in part due to their strong track record with injured and struggling veterans. Recently, Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez revived their careers with the Indians.
  • The Indians have a handful of left-handed outfielders, which leads Pluto to believe David Murphy will be traded. Murphy is owed $6MM in 2015. This is my speculation, but we learned earlier today that the Giants could turn to the trade market for a left-handed outfielder.
  • Nick Howard, the Reds first round pick (19th overall) has joined Jeff Randazzo and the Ballengee Group, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. For more agency related information, visit MLBTR’s Agency Database.
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