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Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles Recall Grayson Rodriguez, Place Kyle Bradish On IL

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The Orioles have announced that right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been recalled and will start today’s game against the Rangers. It was reported last night that the prospect was joining the club and likely to jump into the rotation. Fellow righty Kyle Bradish was placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 4, with a right foot contusion.

Rodriguez, 23, will be making his major league debut today, which has been a long time coming. A first-round pick from 2018, he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the sport for a while. Baseball America has ranked him on their top 100 list in each of the past four seasons, with Rodriguez in the top 10 both this year and last year. He seemed to be cruising towards a debut last year since he began the season in Triple-A, but a lat strain then put him on the shelf for about three months and prevented that from happening.

Throughout the winter, it was expected by many that Rodriguez would crack the club’s Opening Day rotation, with general manager Mike Elias stating that was his expectation as well. But the young hurler didn’t look great in spring, posting a 7.04 ERA in his five starts. He struck out 19 hitters in his 15 1/3 innings but also walked seven and allowed 17 hits, including three home runs. The club decided not to carry him in the Opening Day rotation after all and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk at the end of camp.

The O’s were probably hoping for Rodriguez to spend a bit more time in the minors getting into a good groove, but circumstances necessitated a quick change. Bradish was struck on his foot by a comebacker on Monday and was removed after just 28 pitches and 1 2/3 innings. That’s led to the recall of Rodriguez after just a single start for Norfolk, which didn’t exactly go swimmingly. He threw 75 pitches over four innings, allowing three runs, two earned. He only struck out two opponents, walked four of them and surrendered four hits.

It will be interesting to see how he fares in his first taste of major league action. On the one hand, the recent results haven’t been amazing. On the other, he’s ranked high on prospect lists because of his quality arsenal and has had better results in the past. He posted a 2.20 ERA in his 14 Triple-A starts last year, striking out 35.8% of batters he faced along the way.

If Rodriguez is able to thrive and hold onto his roster spot the rest of the way, he’ll be able to earn a full year of service time. The major league baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs to only spend 172 days on the active roster, or injured list, in order to bank a full year. That will obviously have implications for him personally, as hitting that mark would put him on track to reach arbitration after 2025 and free agency after 2028. But further time in the minors could keep him shy of that line and potentially push those timelines back a year.

The team could also benefit if Rodriguez sticks around, on top of whatever contributions he makes on the field. If a player has less than 60 days of service time and is considered a top 100 prospect by two of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN then earns a full service year, they become eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or cracks the top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration years, the team will net an extra draft pick. This began with the new collective bargaining agreement that was signed a year ago and has already happened once, with the Mariners getting an extra draft pick when Julio Rodríguez won Rookie of the Year last season. Baltimore’s young pitcher is on all three of the aforementioned prospect lists, putting all of this on the table.

Those will be concerns for the future. In the short term, the club will have to see which version of Rodriguez shows up, the one who looked dominant in Triple-A last year or the one who floundered in spring this year. He’ll slot into the rotation next to Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, with Bradish returning at some point down the line.

Orioles Expected To Promote Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles may soon bring up one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. Grayson Rodriguez will join the team in Texas tomorrow and is under consideration to start their game against the Rangers. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after tonight’s game that Baltimore hasn’t yet named their starter for tomorrow (relayed by Dan Connolly of the Athletic). That’s not to say it won’t be Rodriguez, who is still expected to join the MLB team in Arlington, but that doesn’t seem official as of now.

Rodriguez, 23, competed for a spot in the club’s Opening Day rotation but struggled to a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work during camp, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A. However, right-hander Kyle Bradish left his start yesterday with a foot contusion in the second inning. That pushed Tyler Wells to pitch five innings in relief of Bradish rather than make his scheduled start tonight. With Kyle Gibson moving up to take the ball tonight in place of Wells, that left no one to start tomorrow’s game against Texas.

It appears Rodriguez will make that start. As Dan Connolly of the Athletic points out (on Twitter), recalling a pitcher who had been optioned within the past 15 days would require a corresponding injured list transaction. That’ll presumably result in Bradish landing on the 15-day IL, though Baltimore hasn’t finalized that decision yet. According to Connolly, Austin Voth would be the likeliest option to take the ball if Bradish doesn’t go on the IL.

Assuming Rodriguez is tabbed for the start, it’ll be his MLB debut. Once a consensus top five prospect in the sport, Rodriguez struggled with a lat strain for much of the 2022 season. That caused him to slip slightly down some prospect rankings, though he remains a top 20 prospect in the eyes of virtually every prospecting service, with a career 2.49 ERA in the minor leagues supported by an eye-popping 35.9% strikeout rate.

Evaluators credit Rodriguez with one of the best arsenals in minor league baseball. Baseball America gives him above-average or better grades for four pitches, highlighted by plus-plus reviews of his fastball and slider. Keith Law of the Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, by contrast, each pointed to his changeup as the headlining pitch in his arsenal.

While a few days of the season have already elapsed, there’s still enough time for Rodriguez to reach a full service year in 2023. Players are credited with a full year so long as they’re on a roster for 172 days. If Rodriguez is in the majors from here on out, he’d hit that mark. Accruing a full service year would put him on track to first reach arbitration after the 2025 season and qualify for free agency for the first time over the 2028-29 offseason.

The timing of the promotion may also be significant for the Orioles. Rodriguez is a consensus top prospect, appearing on Top 100 lists at all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. Teams that carry prospects who appear on at least two of those three lists for a full service year could recoup draft compensation as part of the collective bargaining agreement’s prospect promotion incentive. If Rodriguez logs a complete service year, the O’s would receive an extra pick in the amateur draft if he wins Rookie of the Year in 2023 or secures a top three finish in Cy Young or MVP balloting between 2023-25. Julio Rodriguez is the only player to net his team compensation under that provision so far, doing so as a result of his Rookie of the Year win in 2022.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, so the club won’t have to make a 40-man transaction. He has a full slate of minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible the O’s send him back to Triple-A Norfolk at some point if they feel he needs continued development time.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America first reported Rodriguez was being promoted.

Orioles Not Planning To Carry Grayson Rodriguez On Opening Day Roster

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Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez isn’t going to be on the club’s Opening Day roster, reports Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Rodriguez will start the season in Triple-A instead.

Rodriguez, 23, is a former first round draft pick, having been selected by the Orioles 11th overall in 2018. As he’s moved up the minor league ladder, he’s also climbed prospect lists. Baseball America has considered him one of the ten best prospects in the league, regardless of position, in each of the past two years.

He seemed on track to make his MLB debut last year, as he began the season in Triple-A. However, he suffered a lat strain in June that kept him out of action until September. He still finished the season with a strong 2.62 ERA over 75 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.6% of batters faced.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft and the club seemed to be quite open to Rodriguez making his debut at the start of the 2023 season, with general manager Mike Elias stating as much in January. However, the youngster hasn’t exactly forced the club’s hand here in spring, as he’s posted a 7.04 ERA in five starts, allowing 17 hits and seven walks in 15 1/3 innings. He did strike out 19 batters in that time, but it seems his overall performance wasn’t enough to nab him a spot on the roster out of the gate.

Since Rodriguez is on the 40-man roster, he could very easily be recalled to join the big league club early in the campaign, especially if an injury creates a need. Teams never go through an entire season using just five pitchers and Rodriguez will likely get a shot to make his debut at some point. How much time he eventually spends in the minors could have service time implications, as it could prevent him from earning a full year. A baseball season is typically 186 days but a player needs to spend only 172 of them in the bigs to earn a full “year” of service. Even if they come up short of that, they can get bumped up to the one-year mark if they meet certain conditions. Any player with less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season who placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline now receives a full year of service time if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting, per the latest collective bargaining agreement. This already happened last year, with Adley Rutschman being awarded a full year despite missing the first few weeks of the season. Rodriguez is on all three of those aforementioned prospect lists and could potentially follow the same path as Rutschman.

For the Orioles, their rotation without Rodriguez figures to consist of Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. Rodriguez will be in Norfolk, looking to be the next man up, though he’ll be competing with DL Hall, who was recently optioned and will be building up to a starter’s workload.

Orioles Notes: Rodriguez, Means, Santander

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Orioles fans are eagerly awaiting the arrival of top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who’s squarely in the mix for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. That shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however, Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s are planning to manage Rodriguez’s innings count this season anyhow, and doing so in the minors will be easier than at the Major League level. If Rodriguez does head to Norfolk to begin the season, the Orioles could look to any of Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, or Spenser Watkins to open the year on the starting staff.

Rodriguez, 23, was the No. 11 overall pick in 2018 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top overall pitching prospects. He posted a brilliant 2.20 ERA with a 35.8% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate at Triple-A last year, though that dominance came in a relatively small sample of 69 2/3 innings. The 6’5″  hurler was limited to just 75 2/3 frames on the season overall, thanks to a Grade 2 lat strain that wiped out his entire June, July and August. Upon returning, he allowed nine runs with a 29-to-14 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings — a notable step back from his early-season dominance. He’s also been hit hard in his past two spring outings and now has yielded 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and seven walks with 14 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings.

The sky is the limit for Rodriguez, whom the organization envisions as a potential ace at the front of the starting staff for years to come, but that optimism will also lead to some understandable caution with regard to his 2023 usage.

A couple more notes on the Orioles…

  • The O’s are aiming for a July return for left-hander John Means, who’s on the mend from 2022 Tommy John surgery, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The southpaw said this week that he’s thrown five or six bullpen sessions so far this spring, and he progressed to throwing his changeup in his most recent effort. Kubatko notes that Means could begin throwing breaking balls in his mound sessions at some point in early April. There’s still a ways to go, as he’ll need to build up to the point where he can throw all of his pitches, then face live hitters, then embark on what’s sure to be a lengthy minor league rehab stint as he builds up to game readiness. Provided the recovery goes according to plan, Means should have a rotation spot waiting for him once he’s ready. The 29-year-old (30 next month) was Baltimore’s best starter when healthy, pitching to a combined 3.72 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.1% walk rate in 356 2/3 innings from 2019-22.
  • Baltimore will get corner outfielder Anthony Santander some reps at first base during the final week of Spring Training, skipper Brandon Hyde announced this morning (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Santander logged four innings at the position early in exhibition play before leaving the club for a few weeks to represent Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The 28-year-old has never played the infield in a major league game. Aside from 24 appearances in center back in 2019, he’s played exclusively corner outfield at the big league level. Santander’s only first base experience in a meaningful game came back in 2016, when he made nine appearances there while in High-A. Of course, the O’s aren’t planning to deploy him regularly there over the coming season. He’ll be in right field on most days, with the club hoping he can branch out to offer some cover behind starting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle if needed. Baltimore acquired Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Diaz as non-roster first base options this offseason, adding some left-handed depth behind the righty-swinging Mountcastle.

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

—

As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Nationals, Steer

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to crack the team’s Opening Day rotation out of camp this spring and that he also believes top outfield prospect Colton Cowser will be ready to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Rodriguez was striding confidently toward Baltimore last summer before he suffered Grade 2 right lat strain while working in a game at Triple-A Norfolk in early June. He didn’t return to action in the minors until September, and by the time he got properly stretched out again, the O’s chances of a late-season push to the playoffs had fully cratered. The 23-year-old ultimately finished with a 2.62 ERA, 109 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75 2/3 innings (17 starts) between High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie and Norfolk. He’s recorded a career 2.47 ERA with 419 strikeouts in 292 total professional frames since the Orioles selected him 11th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft, but the lineups and environments of the AL East obviously present a far greater test than what he’s seen on the farm.

Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, also reached the Triple-A level in 2022 and produced an overall .278/.406/.469 batting line with 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 138 minor league games. The 22-year-old has experience at all three outfield spots and boasts an .895 OPS so far as a pro. If there’s an injury to Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander, the ETA on Cowser could further shrink.

A brighter future is rapidly coming into focus at Camden Yards.

  • Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo spoke glowingly of the organization’s young players and rising prospects at the club’s Hot Stove event for full-season-ticket holders this weekend, as relayed by Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray all earned a specific mention. “This is the most lush and successful prospect list that we’ve ever had,” Rizzo said. “It’s the most talented players we’ve ever had in the farm system at one time.” The big buzz is that Cavalli could be positioned to join Gore and Gray in Washington’s season-opening starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg’s health still a lingering uncertainty.
  • Spencer Steer acknowledged at a Reds Caravan event over the weekend that he has his sights set on the everyday third base job in Cincinnati this season. “I’m going to do everything I can to win that spot,” he told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “I think it’s doable and attainable. That will be my focus: getting into that lineup and staying in that lineup.” Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline last August in the return package for Tyler Mahle, the 25-year-old Steer went on to bat .211/.306/.326 across his first 28 big league games. He was slashing .274/.364/.515 in the minors prior to his promotion to the Reds’ roster.

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Orioles Select Grayson Rodriguez, Four Others

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The Orioles announced they have added five players to their roster in advance of tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline. They are right-handers Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Johnson and Noah Denoyer, along with lefty Drew Rom and shortstop Joey Ortiz.

Rodriguez is arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, making him one of the easiest additions on Rule 5 protection day. The former first-round pick could’ve factored into the MLB mix at some point this year, but a lat strain threw him off track. He did make 14 starts with Triple-A Norfolk, working to a sparkling 2.20 ERA while punching out an excellent 35.8% of opposing hitters. While there was no intrigue with Baltimore’s decision regarding the Rule 5 draft, it’ll be fascinating to see whether Rodriguez can crack Baltimore’s big league roster out of Spring Training.

Johnson was a supplemental first-rounder of the Rays during the 2019 draft. He landed in Baltimore via the three-team Trey Mancini deal at the deadline. The Campbell product recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of next year, but the O’s like him enough as a prospect to give him an offseason 40-man spot. He can be placed on the MLB 60-day injured list at the start of the season to reopen the roster vacancy.

Denoyer went undrafted in 2019 out of a California junior college, but he’s pitched his way onto a 40-man roster. He’s a reliever who split the 2022 campaign between High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie. Denoyer spent most of the year in Bowie, working to a 2.61 ERA with an excellent 35.4% strikeout rate and a meager 5.6% walk percentage over 51 2/3 innings. He’ll be 25 by Opening Day and could factor into the big league bullpen next year.

Rom, 23 next month, split his season between Bowie and Norfolk. He combined for a 4.43 ERA through 120 innings with a 27.1% strikeout percentage and an 8.9% walk rate. A fourth-round selection out of a Kentucky high school in 2018, he was named the #18 prospect in the Baltimore system midseason by Baseball America. He’s a viable back-of-the-rotation candidate next year.

Ortiz went in the fourth round in 2019 coming out of New Mexico State. A gifted defensive shortstop, he split his season between the minors top two levels. The right-handed hitter put up a cumulative .284/.349/.477 mark across 600 plate appearances, pounding out 35 doubles and 19 home runs. He’s part of an excellent pipeline of upper minors infielders in the Baltimore system.

Prospect Notes: Alvarez, Jung, Casas, Rodriguez

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There was some concern that Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez could require surgery on his ailing right ankle, but the team received relatively good news on that front, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. While Alvarez does have a loose body in his ankle, he won’t undergo surgery and will instead receive an injection to alleviate some of the discomfort he’s been experiencing. The hope is that Alvarez could resume baseball activities as soon as next week.

Alvarez, 20, ranks among the top ten prospects in all of baseball on the majority of publications and is currently the game’s top-ranked prospect at FanGraphs and MLB.com. He tore through Double-A pitching earlier this season despite being one of the league’s youngest players, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers and 16 doubles through 296 plate appearances. However, Alvarez stumbled a bit in Triple-A, slashing just .180/.340/.378 in his first 141 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in Double-A to 28.4% in Triple-A. Alvarez hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 23.

A few more notes on some of the game’s top prospects…

  • Rangers fans are (understandably) clamoring for third baseman Josh Jung to make his Major League debut, and general manager Chris Young and interim manager Tony Beasley discussed with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the team’s decision to hold off on promoting him just yet. Texas is also taking a look at infield prospect Ezequiel Duran, who’s playing third base in the big leagues right now and would be displaced with a Jung promotion. “We have an opportunity to play [Duran] and we just want to take advantage of that until it’s not there,” Beasley said. From a bigger picture vantage point, Jung still has just 83 plate appearances in Triple-A after missing the first four-plus months of the season due to shoulder surgery. Grant points out that Jung still hasn’t gone a full week playing third base every day — he’s spent eight games at DH — and the Rangers will want to see him at the hot corner as much as possible in the big leagues. When Jung originally underwent surgery, the expectation was that he’d miss the majority of the season and perhaps be able to DH for a few weeks late in the year. He’s beaten both the timeline and that DH-only projection, and he’s decimated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .299/.349/.610 batting line. It still seems Jung will debut in the near future, but Young emphasized the organization is focused on his long-term outlook rather than getting his bat into the big league lineup as soon as possible.
  • While slugger Triston Casas wasn’t among the Red Sox’ initial September call-ups, manager Alex Cora said on WEEI’s Merloni, Fauria & Mego show this week that the team has discussed giving Casas his first taste of the big leagues sometime this month (Twitter link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Casas, 22, missed two months with a high ankle sprain but has been excellent since returning to the lineup in Triple-A Worcester, hitting .300/.410/.515 with five homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 156 plate appearances. The 6’4″, 252-pound first baseman is considered one of the best bats in the minors and ranks 31st or better among all MLB prospects at The Athletic, MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. The Red Sox will have to add Casas to the 40-man roster this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft anyhow, so there’s plenty of reason to get an earlier look at him.
  • Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez made his first appearance for an Orioles affiliate in three months last night, returning from a Grade 2 lat strain that, at one point, threatened the remainder of his season. Rodriguez threw just 31 pitches in 1 1/3 innings with Class-A Aberdeen and exited after back-to-back walks in the second inning. He told reporters after the game that he’d simply hit the pitch count the organization placed upon his first appearance since June 1 (link via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). Considered by many to be the game’s top pitching prospect, Rodriguez overwhelmed Triple-A lineups prior to his injury, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a 37.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate through 56 innings. He’s not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but he’ll need to be added in the offseason or else be Rule 5-eligible, so it’s at least possible the O’s call him up for a big league debut late in the regular season if his rehab work progresses nicely.

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

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The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

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