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Greg Holland Has “Significant” Tear In UCL; Tommy John Surgery Likely

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4:08pm: Holland has a “significant” tear in his UCL, according to manager Ned Yost (via McCullough). Tommy John surgery is the likely course of action. Yost now believes Holland tore the ligament last August, meaning he pitched last September and the postseason as well as all of 2015 with a tear in the ligament. The Royals asked Holland to get his elbow checked out multiple times this season, McCullough adds, but he declined each time until last month.

3:55pm: Holland tells reporters, including McCullough (Twitter links) that an MRI taken earlier this month revealed ligament damage. He has, in fact, been battling discomfort since last August but did not want to undergo an MRI previously, as his desire was instead to pitch through the pain.

3:47pm: The Royals announced today that closer Greg Holland has been shut down for the season. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports that Dr. Neal ElAttrache will examine Holland’s elbow next week (Twitter links). Per McCullough, the possibility of Tommy John surgery is looming, but nothing will be known until next week.

Holland was recently removed from the closer’s role in favor of Wade Davis. The formerly dominant closer has seen his velocity dramatically decrease recently and has posted a dismal 5.50 ERA on 24 hits and 11 walks in 18 second-half innings. His decline and subsequent loss for the postseason is a huge blow to the Royals, who reached Game 7 of the World Series in 2014 based largely on the dominant performances of Holland, Davis and Kelvin Herrera. Holland’s departure from the bullpen mix makes GM Dayton Moore’s signing of Ryan Madson look like that much more of a coup, as the former Phillies closer has rebounded decisively after a three-year absence due to injury; Madson has a brilliant 2.31 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 in 58 1/3 innings this season.

The injury to Holland will put the Royals in a precarious position this winter. Always a team on a tight budget, there were questions last winter about Kansas City’s ability to pay both Holland and Davis at relatively premium rates. Holland took home an $8.25MM salary via the arbitration process, and he’ll be arb-eligible for the third and final time this winter. That means that Holland, who recently hired Scott Boras as his new agent, could be in line for a salary near or in excess of $10MM in spite of his second half struggles.

In the event that Holland requires Tommy John surgery, he’d be an easy call to non-tender, although that would be a disappointing way to end the Royals tenure of such a key organizational figure. The real dilemma, however, will be what to do with Holland in the event that he does not require Tommy John or any form of major surgery. One would imagine that his trade value is down due to underperformance, salary and, now, injury. The Royals could roll the dice and tender him a contract, but this year’s $112MM payroll is a club record. For a team that typically has operated with a sub-$100MM payroll, paying a potentially damaged relief pitcher $10MM+ is a dicey proposal, so the prospect of a non-tender for Holland has to be considered even in the event that major surgery isn’t required.

Greg Holland Switches To Boras Corporation

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Royals closer Greg Holland has switched representation and is now a client of the Boras Corporation, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter). The 29-year-old Holland will hit arbitration for the final time this offseason, meaning he’s just one year from free agency and a potentially massive payday.

Holland has been a vital part of the Royals’ rise to prominence in the American League Central, pairing with fellow right-handers Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to form a dominant trio at the back end of manager Ned Yost’s bullpen. Ryan Madson — one of the American League’s great comeback stories in 2015 — has been added to that mix this season, creating a formidable group that has helped the Royals run away with their division.

However, if there’s been a weak link in the chain this season, it has somewhat surprisingly been Holland. After working to a flat-out dominant 1.86 ERA with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 256 1/3 innings from 2011-14, Holland has stepped back and worked to a more pedestrian (though still solid) 3.56 ERA in 2015. He’s still averaging a healthy 10.0 K/9, but he’s also averaging five walks per nine innings. Holland missed about three weeks with a strained pectoral muscle early in the season and may not be 100 percent at present, as his normally mid-90s velocity has dropped to the upper 80s. Holland voiced confidence to reporters today, including MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, that he could continue to succeed even with diminished velocity.

“If you’re thinking about that stuff, you’re bound to fail,” Holland told the media. “I don’t let that dictate what I do. My job is to get three outs before they tie the game. I’ve done a pretty good job of it. They pay me a lot of money to do it.”

While the first portion of Holland’s assessment is up for debate, the final statement there is an unequivocal fact. Holland is earning $8.25MM in 2015 and will bring three consecutive seasons of 30-plus saves into arbitration this winter, creating a very strong case at a salary in excess of $10MM. Assuming a rebound season, one can imagine Holland and Scott Boras seeking a record-setting contract on the open market, though they’ll face steep competition in the 2016-17 offseason in the form of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.

Holland’s switch has been noted in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you spot any notable omissions or inaccuracies, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Central Notes: Cubs, Holland, Larkin

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The Cubs and Pirates are squared off in a key double-header today at PNC Park as the teams jockey for position in the NL Central — and, quite possibly, the rights to host an all-or-nothing Wild Card game. Let’s check in on the latest notes from that division and its corresponding grouping from the American League side.

  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says he’s not worried about the possibility of losing front office talent to other organizations this winter, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. “I think we have a pretty tight-knit group, and this is a great time to be a Chicago Cub,” he explained, going on to add that, “but if we do [lose front office staff], I think we have a really deep organization, that there’s another layer ready to step up.” Epstein’s own contractual status is set to move towards the front of the burner for Chicago, of course. He says that he’s not giving any thought to the matter at present, and it’s hard to blame him: with organization’s baseball operations department firing on all cylinders, his leverage only seems to be on the rise.
  • There is some real cause for concern with Royals closer Greg Holland, writes MLB.com’s Mike Petriello. His fastball velocity and spin rate have both fallen off a cliff of late, and a recent ten-day rest did not reverse the trend. That not only creates questions the rest of the way for the World Series-hopeful Royals, but adds to the offseason intrigue for the 29-year-old righty. Kansas City already has a ton of cash (relative to its overall payroll) committed to the pen, and Holland will line up for a raise on his $8.25MM salary in his final year of arbitration. He had seemed a plausible trade candidate, but will need to answer some questions over the final weeks of the season and the postseason before his offseason outlook can be assessed.
  • Former Reds great Barry Larkin has seen his name mentioned frequently as a hypothetical candidate to take over in the Cincinnati dugout, though it’s not clear yet whether Bryan Price will be retained for 2016. Larkin said today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he interviewed for the Rays job last year and had preliminary discussions about the Tigers’ most recent opening, which at least gives credence to the idea that the Hall-of-Famer has interest in such a position.

Greg Holland Open To Long-Term Deal With Royals

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Just over one year ago, Royals righty Greg Holland told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star that he was open to a long-term deal, and the All-Star closer hasn’t changed his tune even after getting a year closer to free agency. Holland told McCullough yesterday that he hopes the Royals’ interest in an extension is still present, because he remains amenable to working out a new deal to keep him in Kansas City beyond 2016 — his final year of team control.

However, as was the case in 2014, there was little discussion of an extension in arbitration, as the two sides focused primarily on his 2015 salary. (Holland agreed to a one-year, $8.25MM pact.) However, he acknowledged that he understood the Royals had quite a bit of work to do on the free agent market this year, especially when losing a pitcher the caliber of James Shields. “And then I feel like that arbitration thing sneaks up on you, so you want to just get something done so both sides can just move on and get ready for spring training,” Holland continued.

A long-term deal for Holland figures to come with a significant price tag. Another strong season could push his arbitration salary upwards of $12MM, and as David Robertson’s four-year, $46MM contract showed this offseason, teams are more than willing to pay top dollar for premium relievers on the open market. Holland compares favorably with Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman as one of baseball’s very best relievers, though he has a longer track record of accumulating saves than Robertson did when entering free agency. In fact, over the past two years, Holland has been statistically superior to Kimbrel, who is believed by many to be baseball’s top closer.

Kimbrel signed a four-year, $42MM contract extension last winter with a club option that could push the deal’s value to $54MM over five years. A long-term deal for Holland may very well have to top that number, as Holland is a year closer to free agency and already earning significantly more than Kimbrel was at the time of his signing.

Needless to say, it’s uncertain whether or not the Royals can afford to spend that type of money on a reliever — particularly when they’re already spending heavily on setup man Wade Davis, who earns $7MM in 2015. Fellow setup man Kelvin Herrera will also begin to see his salary rise, though not substantially until the 2017 season, as he agreed to a two-year, $4.15MM pact this winter.

Holland’s rising price tag has led many to speculate that he could eventually be traded, particularly because Davis’ salaries for the next few seasons are controlled via club options. Kansas City can exercise an $8MM club option for the 2016 season and a $10MM option for the 2017 season. That’s significantly less money than Holland will make, barring some form of injury. Holland told McCullough that he does believe both sides want to work something out, but he acknowledged that baseball is a business, and that the Royals have a lot of money invested in the bullpen as it is. “[I]t’s a fine line to get both sides happy and to feel comfortable,” Holland said.

Heyman On Contracts: Herrera, Holland, Coffey, Middlebrooks

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Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com provides some finer details on various recently-struck contracts from around the game (links to Twitter):

  • Under his two-year deal, Royals reliever Kelvin Herrera can tack on an additional $250K to his 2016 salary based on games finished in 2015. That is not much, but does give at least some suggestion that he and the team have conceived of the possibility that he could end up in a closing role at some point.
  • Of course, Herrera is not first or even second in the pecking order there. Royals pen mate Greg Holland will handle the ninth until further notice, and his one-year deal to avoid arbitration contains several bonus provisions, including a $100K bump for taking home another reliever of the year award.
  • Todd Coffey’s minor league deal with the Braves would pay him $800K annually for his time in the majors, if he can crack the roster. Coffey can also earn up to $200K through incentives.
  • The Padres will pay pre-arbitration-eligible third baseman Will Middlebrooks rather well. He will make $540,500 over his time in the majors and $324,300 for whatever time he spends in the minors. Last year at this time, MLBTR’s Zach Links took an interesting look at how teams pay pre-arb players.

Royals, Greg Holland Avoid Arbitration

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The Royals and closer Greg Holland have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $8.25MM contract reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (on Twitter). Holland had filed for a $9MM salary while the Royas countered at $6.65MM (via MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). Like fellow elite closer Aroldis Chapman, who avoided arb earlier this hour, Holland settled significantly higher than his midpoint — topping that mark by $425K. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that Holland’s contract calls for a $100K bonus if he is traded.

Holland projected at $9.3MM using the projection model of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, although in an Arbitration Breakdown piece examining Holland and other elite closers, Swartz noted that the model may be a bit overzealous with Holland’s figure due to the lack of accurate historical comps.

The 29-year-old Holland, a client of Turner Gary Sports, turned in his second straight season of a sub-1.50 ERA, pitching to an outstanding 1.44 mark to go along with 13.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent ground-ball rate in 62 1/3 innings of work. Holland saved 46 games along the way and also fired 11 innings of one-run ball in the postseason, striking out 15 against five walks. This was his second trip through the arbitration process, and he’ll be eligible once more before hitting free agency following the 2016 campaign.

Holland was one of two remaining arbitration cases for Kansas City, and Eric Hosmer is now the team’s lone remaining unresolved case.

Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures

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With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.

Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.

That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).

Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.

And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:

  • The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
  • Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
  • Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
  • Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
  • Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).

Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:

  • David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
  • Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
  • The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
  • Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
  • The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
  • On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.

Arbitration Filing Numbers

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Many players will avoid arbitration today, and dozens of others exchanged figures with their teams in anticipation of hearings. Most cases won’t go to arbitration hearings, but teams such as the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox (per the most recent updates) are known for their “file and trial” policies. For players on those teams this marks the last chance at negotiations before a hearing.

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker will keep you up to date on every one of the filing numbers from around the game, but here are the highlights — players who filed for $5MM or more. Projections can be found here. Now for the details …

  • The Reds countered the $5.7MM filing of Todd Frazier with a $3.9MM figure, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter).
  • Third baseman David Freese filed at $7.6MM and the Angels countered at $5.25MM, WAPT’s Mike Perchick tweets. Halos outfielder Matt Joyce has filed for $5.2MM against a $4.2MM counter, according to Perchick (on Twitter).
  • Astros center fielder Dexter Fowler filed for $10.8MM while the club countered at $8.5MM, Perchick tweeets.
  • Pirates second baseman Neil Walker filed at $9MM while the club landed at $8MM, Perchick tweets.
  • Just-acquired reliever Tyler Clippard has filed for $8.85MM against the Athletics, who countered at $7.775MM, Perchick tweets.
  • Cardinals center fielder Jon Jay filed at $5MM while the team countered at $4.1MM, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets.
  • Pedro Alvarez has requested a $5.75MM salary for the coming season while the Pirates are at $5.25MM, per a tweet from Perchick.
  • Righty Mat Latos filed at $10.4MM and the Marlins countered with a $9.4MM figure, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
  • Third baseman Casey McGehee filed at $5.4MM, with the Giants countering at $4MM, Heyman tweets.
  • The Braves countered Mike Minor’s $5.6MM filing number with a $5.1MM team figure, Heyman reports on Twitter.
  • Mark Trumbo has filed for $6.9MM against a $5.3MM counter from the Diamondbacks, Heyman tweets. Closer Addison Reed, meanwhile, filed at $5.6MM with the team countering at $4.7MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles went with a $7.5MM price point for righty Bud Norris, who filed at $10.25MM, per Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). In both relative and absolute terms, there is an even bigger gap between the O’s ($2MM) and breakout slugger Steve Pearce ($5.4MM), who is looking to cash in on a big season in his final year of eligibility. That news also comes via Connolly, on Twitter.
  • Entering his final year of arbitration, infielder Daniel Murphy has filed for $8.6MM while the Mets have submitted a $7.4MM figure, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets.
  • Reds 9th inning man Aroldis Chapman filed for $8.7MM while the team countered at $6.65MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles and outfielder Alejandro De Aza will negotiate between filing figures of $5MM and $5.65MM, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets.
  • Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer filed at $6.7MM and the team countered at $4.6MM, Heyman tweets. The club will also have some ground to make up with closer Greg Holland, who filed at $9MM versus a team filing of $6.65MM, per another Heyman tweet.
  • Newly-acquired third baseman Josh Donaldson has filed at $5.75MM, while the Blue Jays countered at $4.3MM, Heyman tweets.

Royals Shopping Infante, Listening On Relievers

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TODAY: Kansas City is leaving other clubs with the impression that they are willing, albeit hesitant, to deal from amongst its trio of late-inning arms, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). To do so, however, the Royals would need a controllable player at a position of need: either an impact bat in right or a starting pitcher.

YESTERDAY, 12:30pm: The Royals are making Omar Infante available, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).

Roughly one year ago today, the Royals signed Infante to a four-year deal for more than $30MM plus incentives with a $10MM team option for 2018.  The soon-to-be 33-year-old batted .318/.345/.450 with 10 homers and solid second base defense for the Tigers in 2013.  However, his production slid in 2014 as he hit just .252/.295/.337 with subpar work in the field (-3.0 UZR/150).  His .632 OPS was his worst in nearly a decade, but with a lack of quality second base options out there, Infante could have value.

12:08pm: The Royals have been telling teams that relievers Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera are not available, according to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter).  McCullough cautions (link) that that things could conceivably change with David Robertson now off the market, however.

That news comes as something of a surprise given the amount of trade buzz we’ve heard about the trio this week.  Just yesterday we heard that the Royals were listening to offers on all three relievers with an eye on turning their bullpen strength into an outfield bat.  Trading a reliever could bring KC a much more affordable outfield solution than, say, free agent Melky Cabrera, but it would also chip away at what helped make the Royals such a strong team in 2014.

The Blue Jays were said to be in pursuit of Holland and the Royals reportedly considered him to be available, albeit with a high price tag.  McCullough speculated that Holland’s delivery and build could have KC worried about his durability, but their concerns might not be enough for them to ship him out.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to earn $9.3MM in 2015, but that doesn’t appear to be a prohibitive cost for KC.

Latest On Royals Relievers

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11:01am: Kansas City is also receiving interest in Herrera, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). The Royals are telling teams that they would prefer not to move any of their relievers, but feel they must listen because the free agent market is so light on bats.

2:22am: The Blue Jays are pursuing a trade for Royals closer Greg Holland, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports.  Holland is “available, but they’re [the Royals] asking for a lot in return,” according to a source familiar with the negotiations.

Holland has been one of baseball’s top relief arms for the last four seasons, yet with a rising price tag through the arbitration process (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to earn $9.3MM in 2015), the right-hander may simply be getting too expensive for Kansas City to keep.  The Royals will continue to hear offers for both Holland and Wade Davis during the Winter Meetings, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes, and could be moved to part with either bullpen ace for either an outfielder or a starting pitcher.

The Royals’ top relievers demonstrated their importance throughout the team’s run to the World Series last fall, but the team is currently projected to pay nearly $24MM next season to five bullpen arms — Holland, Davis, Kelvin Herrera (who’s also arb-eligible), Jason Frasor and Luke Hochevar.  Between Holland and Davis, McCullough feels the Royals might prefer to trade Holland, whose delivery and build might lead to fears that he won’t hold up over time.  Holland is also more expensive due to his two remaining arbitration years, whereas the Royals have cost-certainty on Davis due to the club options they hold on his contract.

Holland would obviously generate considerable interest if he was shopped, though McCullough notes that getting top value for him might be tricky.  “The interested club must be close to contention, willing to spend on a niche resource and uninterested in the newfound prevailing logic on relief pitchers,” McCullough writes, namely the fact that teams are less willing than they once were to pay heavily for a “proven closer.”

The Jays check at least one of those boxes since they’re hoping to challenge for the AL East title in 2015, and they’re known to be looking for relief help during the Winter Meetings to address their vacancy at closer.  While Holland would be expensive over his two remaining years of team control, the Blue Jays might prefer giving a big salary to a closer for two seasons rather than guaranteeing four seasons to David Robertson, who Toronto has also been linked to in rumors.  One obstacle to a Holland trade could be that the Jays are themselves a little short on outfield and starting pitching depth, having already traded or non-tendered Anthony Gose, John Mayberry, Andy Dirks, J.A. Happ, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman in several transactions this offseason.

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