Jacob deGrom

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

By Matt Swartz | November 15, 2018 at 9:28pm CDT

Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.

But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.

All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.

Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.

The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!

Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.

By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.

There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.

Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.

Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.

Jacob deGrom To Remain With CAA

By Steve Adams | November 15, 2018 at 2:50pm CDT

As recently as last night, Mets ace Jacob deGrom told reporters that he’d yet to settle on who his new agent will be in the wake of Brodie Van Wagenen’s appointment as the Mets’ general manager. That decision now looks to have been made, as SNY’s Andy Martino reports that deGrom will remain with CAA Baseball (Van Wagenen’s former agency), where he’ll be represented by agent Jeff Berry (Twitter link).

Van Wagenen, Berry, and Nez Balelo had shared responsibilities for running CAA, so the recent change at the top left the latter two men as co-heads of the agency. While deGrom had the right to speak with other agencies (and presumably did so) after Van Wagenen fully divested himself of all ties to CAA, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that deGrom’s decision was made because he valued the stability of remaining with the only agency he’s known since being drafted.

If and when the Mets do broach the subject of an extension with deGrom and Berry, Van Wagenen’s involvement in the process will be limited. At the time of his introduction to the New York media, Van Wagenen was asked about a potential conflict of interest when negotiating against deGrom and other Mets clients in arbitration settings. COO Jeff Wilpon fielded the question (link via the Post’s Dan Martin), saying that Van Wagenen’s contract has “provisions … to deal with any conflicts of interest.” Asked specifically about a long-term deal for deGrom, Wilpon responded:

“We didn’t discuss specifics on any one player like that. I think [deGrom] is to be determined and Brodie is going to have to recuse himself from some of those discussions. He will have to set an overall tone for the organization, which way he wants us to go, and then we’ll have to have some others be responsible for doing the actual contract.”

Beyond that quote, Martino further tweets that Van Wagenen indeed “must recuse himself” from any talks with deGrom, although contract situations centering on any of Van Wagenen’s former clients will likely face some scrutiny in the short term. While concerns surrounding the matter might fade in the second, third and fourth seasons of Van Wagenen’s reported four-year contract, it’s fair to assume that he presently has knowledge of his former clients’ interests that would not be privy to the standard general manager. The precise manner in which Van Wagenen’s limitations would be enforced, to this point, isn’t clearly laid out, but the fact that deGrom is now being represented by Van Wagenen’s former partner figures to further place the situation under a microscope when negotiations begin.

The minor shift in deGrom’s representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom Win Cy Young Awards

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2018 at 5:52pm CDT

Rays left-hander Blake Snell and Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced on Wednesday night.

Snell received 17 of the 30 first-place votes, with the other 13 first-place nods going to Astros ace Justin Verlander. In the end, Snell narrowly edged out Verlander on the weighted ballot system, with 169 total points to Verlander’s 154. Cleveland’s Corey Kluber finished a distant third, followed by Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Blake Treinen, Edwin Diaz and Luis Severino, in that order (full voting breakdown here).

As for deGrom, his closest competition was Washington right-hander Max Scherzer, though in the end, voting didn’t prove to be close. DeGrom toppled Scherzer in a landslide, taking home 29 of the 30 first-place votes (with Scherzer securing the other). Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Colorado’s Kyle Freeland finished third and fourth, while Patrick Corbin, Miles Mikolas, Josh Hader, Mike Foltynewicz and Jon Lester rounded out the voting (full breakdown here).

Snell, a former top prospect, broke out in his first full season as a big leaguer and thrust himself into the ranks of the elite with a dominant 2018 campaign. The No. 52 overall pick by Tampa Bay back in 2011, Snell solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter last season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball, but he overpowered opponents in 2018, pitching to a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. His 180 1/3 innings trailed Verlander’s 214, but Snell’s per-inning dominance proved to be enough for him to take home tonight’s hardware. No pitcher in baseball tallied more than Snell’s 21 victories.

Looking forward, while the Rays are more experimental with pitching roles than any club in the league, there’s little doubt that Snell will be handled like a traditional front-of-the-rotation workhorse. Soon to turn 26, Snell is under club control for four more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. One can only imagine that the Rays would love to lock Snell up to a long-term pact, but a historically dominant campaign has unequivocally raised the asking price for the newest Tampa Bay ace.

DeGrom has received Cy Young votes in two prior seasons but had never finished in the top five. With an MLB-best 1.70 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 217 innings this past season. deGrom can now add a Cy Young trophy to a list of accolades that also includes 2014 Rookie of the Year honors and a pair of All-Star nods.

The Cy Young victory for deGrom only further serves as a data point that voters have increasingly moved away from placing any real value on a pitcher’s win-loss record when assessing his value; for all of his individual dominance in 2018, deGrom received virtually no run support and was saddled with a 10-9 record that was far from indicative of his consistent excellence.

His future is a bit less certain than that of tonight’s co-winner, as deGrom is under the Mets’ control for only another two seasons. While he’s previously expressed interest in signing a long-term deal with the Mets, deGrom’s agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, was the surprising pick to be named the new general manager of the Mets. He’ll need to determine a new representative before any extension talks can begin in earnest, as Van Wagenen has fully severed ties to all clients and all duties from his former agency, CAA Baseball.

For the time being, deGrom will take his Cy Young season to the negotiating table in arbitration as he negotiates what should be a sizable raise over 2018’s $7.4MM salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects deGrom to earn $12.9MM this winter.

Quick Hits: Castellanos, Astros, deGrom, Riggleman, Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 2:18pm CDT

The Astros made an offer to the Tigers for right fielder Nick Castellanos prior to last July’s trade deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Houston was known to be aggressively pursuing a big outfield bat last summer, even to the point of almost completing a trade with the Nationals for Bryce Harper, and also inquiring about Tommy Pham (then with the Cardinals) and White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia. Fenech suggests that Castellanos could again be a target for the Astros this offseason, and he explores in a longer piece for the Detroit Free Press that it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tigers will trade Castellanos due to a lack of extension talks between the two sides.

Castellanos would help the Astros as either a corner outfielder or, perhaps more likely, as a DH given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and the fact that incumbent Houston designated hitter Evan Gattis is hitting free agency. Since Castellanos is only controlled through the 2019 season, he would give the Astros a short-term boost in their quest for another World Series while also not serving as a long-term block to youngsters Tyler White, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis.

Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason

By Steve Adams | October 30, 2018 at 11:57pm CDT

Many in baseball are still raising an eyebrow at the Mets’ decision to name super-agent Brodie Van Wagenen their new general manager, but the move is officially in the books after Van Wagenen was formally introduced at a press conference today at Citi Field. The former co-founder of CAA’s baseball division is shifting to the other side of the negotiating table and made clear in his initial comments that the Mets will not be embarking on any kind of rebuild (links via Newsday’s David Lennon and the New York Post’s Mike Puma). To the contrary, Van Wagenen portrayed an aggressive, win-now mindset.

“We will win now,” said Van Wagenen. “We will win in the future. We’re going to develop a winning culture and a winning mindset. We are going to deliver this city and this fan base a team they can be proud of.”

While fans (and quite likely executives) from other clubs had hoped to see the Mets’ new general manager come in with a future-oriented approach and put aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard on the trading block, it seems that, too, is unlikely. Van Wagenen plainly stated that he hopes to keep deGrom with the Mets for “a long time” (per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Rather than shopping current stars, it seems the Mets will instead turn to the free-agent market to supplement a promising rotation core but a lineup that is filled with question marks. The rookie GM somewhat nebulously said he “expect[s] to be in on every free agent” — a statement that seems like an over-promise but nonetheless underscores his win-now mentality.

Looking beyond the player element of the Mets’ new hire, there are myriad questions about the infrastructure of the team. First and foremost, it’s been made clear that Van Wagenen has severed all ties with CAA Baseball and is no longer affiliated with the agency. The future of his former clients — they could remain at CAA with another agent or conceivably look elsewhere — isn’t clear, but DiComo and others have noted that Van Wagenen has completely divested from CAA. That process, DiComo notes, was made a bit smoother by the fact that Van Wagenen had a salary as the head of CAA Baseball rather than working on commission from his clients.

As far as internal improvements go, COO Jeff Wilpon stated that there are resources set aside to beef up the club’s analytics and scouting departments. Van Wagenen suggested that his previous work as an agent can help in both regards (Twitter link, with video, via DiComo). There’s surely some validity to that sentiment, as he’s spent nearly two decades seeking to identify talent and represent the best players possible. More recently, agencies have had to become increasingly familiar with newer statistics, data and trends in an effort to best market their players to teams. There’s also little doubt that he’s a deft negotiator, which figures to serve him well in his new role.

Then again, managing an entire baseball operations department while simultaneously dealing with Mets ownership and the New York media will be an entirely different animal. And while Van Wagenen likely does have some scouting acumen and an understanding of the ever-increasing use of data in today’s game, neither has ever been a full-time focus for him. He’ll likely hand pick some new additions to add to both departments for the Mets, and he’ll also have some more experienced baseball ops veterans on whom to rely as he acclimates to a new life within the game.

To that end, though, it’s not yet certain which of the Mets’ former top lieutenants will be working alongside him. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that special assistant (and former Mets GM) Omar Minaya will stay with the organization, but the futures of fellow special assistant (and former Blue Jays GM) J.P. Ricciardi and assistant GM John Ricco are not yet known.

Turning to the field staff, Van Wagenen proclaimed that Mickey Callaway will return in 2019 and offered his “full support” of the manager as he enters his second season with the club. Specifically, Van Wagenen praised Callway’s “enthusiasm,” his “energy” and his ability to inspire players.

Frankly, it’s not possible to glean the exact approach the Mets will take to putting a contender on the field in 2019 and beyond. There were no concrete numbers put on how much payroll capacity Van Wagenen will have. That’s not unexpected, but it also offers no insight into which types of free agents the Mets can realistically pursue. The Mets have topped $150MM in each of the past two seasons and have a projected $135MM on the books for 2019, per MLBTR’s Jason Martinez, before considering any possible non-tenders. That doesn’t leave much room to add, barring a willingness from the Wilpon family to substantially increase payroll. Perhaps the Mets could look to jettison some mid-range contracts like Juan Lagares or Anthony Swarzak if there isn’t room for payroll to push much further north. Alternatively, players like Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores don’t seem assured of being tendered contracts.

There are still plenty of unknowns following Van Wagenen’s first interaction with reporters as the Mets’ new GM, but the greatest takeaway from the entire event is that there’s little reason to expect the Mets will be putting any type of significant sell-off of major assets into motion. Van Wagenen set the stage for an active winter in terms of adding pieces to a hopeful contender, and fans will now wait to see whether ownership grants him the means to follow through.

Reactions To Mets’ GM Decision

By Connor Byrne | October 28, 2018 at 8:55pm CDT

The Mets have found their new general manager, soon-to-be former player agent Brodie Van Wagenen, whom no one would have expected them to hire at the outset of their search. Here are a few reactions to the decision:

New York made a mistake selecting Van Wagenen, who’s no more qualified to be the team’s GM than to serve as its first baseman, Buster Olney of ESPN opines (subscription required). Because of Van Wagenen’s tenure as an agent, there are conflict-of-interest concerns from Major League Baseball, the MLBPA and club management – all of which regard the hiring as “bizarre and inevitably problematic,” Olney writes. For instance, considering Van Wagenen has acted as the agent for the Mets’ two aces – Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard – Olney wonders if he’ll be able to represent the team’s interests instead of his ex-clients’. Further, Olney cites one club exec who’s wary of Van Wagenen because of the strong comments he made during last winter’s free-agent freeze, when he suggested teams were colluding against the players. Beyond that, one talent evaluator tells Olney the Mets made a “very strange” choice, in part because Van Wagenen won’t get the necessary time to adjust to being a GM, and that banking on this move to work is “like expecting the impossible.” The Mets should have made a safer selection and gone with one of the many qualified front office execs in the majors, Olney argues, pointing out that Van Wagenen now has to learn on the job while dealing with the Mets’ much-maligned ownership.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post echoes Olney in reporting that league officials and the union have issues with Van Wagenen’s hiring. Interestingly, both sides agree Van Wagenen should not be involved in arbitration cases for deGrom or Syndergaard during the upcoming winter, according to Sherman.
While there are clearly strong opinions regarding the Mets’ pick, it’s anyone’s guess how it’ll actually work out. Van Wagenen’s not the first agent to take over as a major league GM – both Joe Garagiola Jr. and Dave Stewart did so in the past (each with the Diamondbacks), and Sherman discussed the transition with the two earlier this weekend. Garagiola admitted his background as an agent led to “skepticism” from his GM colleagues, saying: “Those first few GM meetings I went to, I was not greeted with open arms.” Stewart offered a similar sentiment regarding GMs, saying, “They look at agents as the dark side and agents look at them as the dark side.” Of course, as Sherman notes, both Garagiola and Stewart did have previous front office experience when they became GMs. That’s not the case for Van Wagenen, which could make his new career all the more difficult. On the other hand, Garagiola did name an advantage to going from a player representative to a GM: “Without question the biggest asset [brought to the GM job] is in dealing with agents in terms of contracts and negotiating for free agents. Many of the agents were contemporaries. My awareness of what the job entails gave me credibility with them.” For more from Garagiola and Stewart, check out Sherman’s full piece.

Mets Notes: Van Wagenen, deGrom, Cespedes, Vargas, CAA

By Ty Bradley | October 27, 2018 at 3:18pm CDT

Earlier this afternoon, the Mets sent shockwaves through the baseball world by reportedly agreeing to terms with former CAA agent Brodie Van Wagenen on a deal to become the team’s new General Manager. The hire, reportedly spearheaded by team COO Jeff Wilpon, is a puzzling one for an organization in flux: Van Wagenen, after all, was hired despite a résumé utterly devoid of any front office, scouting, or player development experience, and currently represents nearly a quarter of the Mets’ 25-man roster in contract matters. Charges of interest conflicts will assuredly be flung from all directions – according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the club seems as throughly entangled with the 44-year-old former agent as any in the league. In the past two offseasons alone, Van Wagenen has negotiated deals on behalf of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, third baseman Todd Frazier, and lefty Jason Vargas for a combined $143MM. Of particular interest to Sherman is Van Wagenen’s February 2018 outburst, where the agent, furious at perceived collusion in the glacially-paced free agent market, drafted a public statement suggesting that some frozen-out players may have been preparing to boycott the upcoming season. Van Wagenen, of course, has now scooted his seat to the other side of the table, where the traits he doubtless extolled so forcefully will likely be minimized at every turn.

The elephant in that room, it seems, is 30-year-old Jacob deGrom, on whose side Van Wagenen has long campaigned for either an extension or trade, and many questions await. Van Wagenen and his new colleagues could certainly extricate themselves from the awkward discussions to follow by peddling the ace at first opportunity in the forthcoming market, but that route seems altogether unlikely at this point. In a separate report by The Post, sources indicate that team owner Fred Wilpon is hell-bent on a playoff run next season and was loath to consider candidates who suggested otherwise.

In other rumblings from Flushing . . .

Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News raises similar questions of the new hire, posing scores of inquiries about current and prospective players and the potential conflicts of interests with both. In particular, she addresses the cases of former Van Wagenen clients Cespedes and Vargas, both of whom the agent may be forced to engage in uncomfortable discussions with. Cespedes, of course, underwent a second surgery on his left heel yesterday and may miss up to half of the upcoming campaign. Though he’s been productive at the plate over the last two seasons, slashing .282/.343/.525, the 33-year-old has been limited to just 120 games over that time and will figure to miss a good deal more in the season to come. Vargas, 35, had a dreadful season last year, allowing 1.76 HR/9 and posting just 92 IP across 20 starts on the way to a 5.77 ERA. His 8.22 K/9, the highest of his career, did leave some room for optimism, but a return to a similar path will almost surely leave the new GM in an extremely awkward position with a former client who has just one year remaining on his deal.
Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that Matt Ricatto and Jeff Berry of CAA will now handle agency duties for deGrom following the departure of Van Wagenen.

East Notes: Rendon, deGrom, Wendle, Rays Stadium

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2018 at 1:25pm CDT

As I noted in discussing him recently as an extension candidate, Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon remains an underappreciated star despite turning in another fantastic effort in 2018. That’s largely a reflection of his own preferences, of course, so it’s fascinating to see Rendon open up a bit in a chat with Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post. He describes himself as a lover of the game who is simply “not a fan of everyone treating you different because you play a sport” and only “want[s] to be normal.” (Indeed, he only took this interview to promote the Nats’ youth academy.) That’s not to say that Rendon isn’t interested in a lengthy career, but he clearly seems more concerned with the upbringing of a young family than maximizing earnings. He emphasized, too, that he’s not interested in turning over his professional direction to agent Scott Boras. What that all means for the future isn’t yet clear — from the team’s perspective, one official calls Rendon “an enigma” — but it’s undeniably relevant. Rendon is eligible for arbitration one final time this winter.

The article is essential reading for fans of the Nationals — or of other teams who wonder whether they might one day hope to cheer for the 28-year-old. In other chatter from the game’s eastern divisions …

Speaking of hypothetical extension candidates, there aren’t many more prominent targets than Mets ace Jacob deGrom, who just wrapped up a season for the ages. Andy Martino of SNY.tv examines the situation, noting that the club will first need to resolve its front office before deciding how to proceed. Certainly, it still seems possible that a new contract or a trade could make sense, though it’s also conceivable that the Mets will simply work out an arbitration price. As for deGrom, Martino writes that he “wants to both win and be paid fair market value.” Of course, determining a market price is an interesting proposition, especially since we haven’t seen a pitcher of this quality in quite this contractual situation (two remaining control years) ink an extension in some time. Those interested in considering some recent major contracts can click here to find a list of starters who have signed extensions of $75MM or more in guaranteed money.
The Rays obviously saw something to like in infielder Joey Wendle when they acquired him over the winter, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, even they were surprised by his breakout showing in 2018. Senior VP Chaim Bloom explains that Wendle has been “even better than we expected” in most areas — in particular, at the plate — such that “the whole thing has been more than we could have asked for.” That seems fair to say, given that Wendle was acquired for a song and has been among the game’s best rookie performers (as we recently discussed here). It’s an interesting piece on a notable player that includes some quotes from some of Wendle’s former teammates in the A’s organization.
In other Rays news, also via Topkin, principal owner Stuart Sternberg gave a bit of an update on the team’s stadium-building plans. The initial announcement, of course, wasn’t quite like the definitive ones we’ve seen from some other clubs in recent years. Presenting a vision was presumably aimed at the key aspect of the project that needs to be determined: funding. Sternberg says the club anticipates paying “well north” of a $150MM figure he has previously suggested. But the park project is estimated at $892MM, so there’s a gulf still to be bridged. In addition to working with municipalities, Sternberg says “corporate support is going to be paramount to all of this and that is still a work in progress as well.” The hope seemingly remains to resolve a direction by the end of the calendar year.

NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Santana, deGrom, Camargo

By Mark Polishuk | September 15, 2018 at 10:01am CDT

Ryan Zimmerman feels he has “two, three, four years left” in his career and he wants to spend them with the Nationals, the veteran first baseman tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson as part of a lengthy Q&A piece, admitting that “It would be really weird to play anywhere else.” It seemed as if Zimmerman’s time as an effective everyday player was winding down after injury-shortened seasons in 2014-16, though he rebounded with a healthy and productive 2017 season. This year has been more of a mixed bag, as Zimmerman missed over two months with an oblique injury but has hit well (.267/.343/.506 in 286 PA) when he has been able to play.

Zimmerman, who turns 34 later this month, is owed $18MM next season, plus the Nats hold a $18MM club option on his services for 2020. He acknowledged that he won’t be making such superstar money in the future, saying “At some point, if you want to be here, you have to make some sacrifices. I’m not going sit here and say I’m willing to play for the league minimum, but for me to play here would be the ultimate goal, to finish my career here.”

Here’s more from around the NL East…

Could the Phillies look to trade Carlos Santana this offseason? “There has been some recent rumble” about the possibility, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, though the idea seems rather speculative in nature. Santana signed a three-year, $60MM deal to join the Phils just last winter, a signing that seemed surprising at the time since the club seemingly already had breakout rookie Rhys Hoskins established at first base. Hoskins was shifted to left field instead, leading to a disastrous result from a defensive standpoint (-25 Defensive Runs Saved, -15.4 UZR/150). Santana, meanwhile, has hit .233/.354/.429 with 23 homers over 616 PA — solid numbers, if less than the Phillies were expecting from the signing. A Santana trade would allow Hoskins to return to first base, while allowing the Phillies to upgrade defensively at the very least in left field, and possibly make an even bigger all-around addition given how the team is thought to be preparing for a splashy offseason. It’s worth noting that $25MM of Santana’s contract has already been paid out in salary and signing bonus, though even $35MM over the two remaining years could be a bit of a tough sell in trade talks, as Santana is limited to just first base (or DH) and he turns 34 in April.
Long before Jacob deGrom became a Cy Young contender, he was an unheralded ninth-round draft choice for the Mets in 2010 who wasn’t even used as a starting pitcher until near the end of his final year at Stetson University. The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) has the story about how Mets scout Les Parker initially discovered deGrom, almost by accident as Parker happened to attend a scout day game at Stetson long enough to see deGrom enter as a reliever in the ninth inning. Other Mets evaluators agreed with deGrom’s potential, and while his profile rose after becoming a starter later in Stetson’s season, the Giants were the only other team known to have significant interest in drafting deGrom. The story is well worth a full read for a look at the scouting process and how you never know which prospect could emerge as a future star.
There has been quite a bit of speculation about the future of the Braves’ third base spot, be it top prospect Austin Riley winning the job or the possibility that Atlanta could look to acquire a big-ticket name for the hot corner. Johan Camargo, however, has played well as the regular third baseman this season, and The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) wrote earlier this week that Camargo seems to be forcing himself into the Braves’ future plans. “He’s done a lot to (impress team officials),” manager Brian Snitker said. “As they go into the offseason and they’re looking, they might be able to take money they were going to spend (at third base) and spend it somewhere else.” Camargo has hit .274/.354/.468 with 18 homers over 474 PA this season, while also posting a +6.5 UZR/150 and +5 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner. This adds up to an under-the-radar 3.0 fWAR season for the 24-year-old, who is under team control through the 2023 season. The Braves could use Camargo in a super-utility role should Riley emerge as a viable big leaguer in Spring Training, or O’Brien even raises the possibility that Riley could become a trade chip if Camargo has done enough to win the everyday third base job going forward. It would be a bold move to deal a top-100 prospect like Riley, though Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to moving prospects for established Major League talent.

NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 12:31am CDT

As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.

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