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Mets Notes: Baty, McNeil, Alvarez, Senga

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TODAY: Senga won’t return prior to the All-Star break, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told DiComo (X link) and other reporters today.

JUNE 7: The Mets and Phillies face off this weekend in MLB’s London Series, and both clubs will be afforded a 27th man for the overseas event. For the Mets, that’ll be infielder Brett Baty, who was recently optioned to Triple-A Syracuse in a move designed to help him get back on track but also to get hot-hitting Mark Vientos a legitimate audition at third base.

While Vientos is clearly outplaying his fellow corner-infield prospect at the moment, it seems the Mets are open to ideas that could keep both in the lineup, even with a full-time designated hitter (J.D. Martinez) and with Pete Alonso entrenched at first base. Baty told the Mets beat this morning that the team has informed him he’ll likely begin taking reps at second base soon down in Syracuse (X link via Newsday’s Tim Healey). It hasn’t happened in a game setting yet, but the Mets approached him about the possibility when he was optioned on May 31.

The potential addition of second base to Baty’s skill set comes at a time when longtime second baseman Jeff McNeil is struggling through the worst results of his career. McNeil, the 2022 National League batting champion, is hitting just .227/.296/.320 this season — about 16% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

The 32-year-old McNeil is in just the second season of a four-year, $50MM extension and thus isn’t in jeopardy of being cut loose, but this is the second straight season his offensive output has declined in notable fashion. McNeil still has elite bat-to-ball skills (11.2% strikeout rate, 87.6% contact rate), but he’s hitting more fly-balls than ever before, which is having an adverse impact on his results. (Fly-balls — at least those in play — are the easiest type of batted ball to convert into an out.) There’s still surely some poor fortune in play, as McNeil’s fly-ball rate is only a few percentage points higher than when he won his batting title, while his .246 BABIP checks in 70 points shy of his career mark. But clearly the Mets have some level of concern, and clearly they’re also still looking at ways for both Baty and Vientos to factor into the long-term plan (particularly if the club ends up re-signing Pete Alonso and thus removing a Vientos-to-first base scenario).

Baty has never played second base in his professional career. He’s logged 250 innings in left field and otherwise spent every defensive inning since being drafted at third base. But with Vientos viewed more strictly as a corner infielder and also batting an outstanding .333/.392/.621 through his first 74 plate appearances this year, the Mets will take a look at the possibility of Baty slotting in elsewhere on the diamond. Baty hit just .225/.304/.325 in 169 turns at the plate prior to being optioned, so he has some obvious work to do on the offensive side of things as well — but it’s nevertheless interesting to see the Mets experimenting with the defensive alignment in a manner that could accommodate two of the organization’s longtime top prospects who have previously had the same primary position.

Both Baty and Vientos have the potential to emerge as cornerstones in Queens, and if they’re able to do so they’ll likely slot in alongside catcher Francisco Alvarez in forming a young core of hitters around which president of baseball ops David Stearns can build. Alvarez has been out since mid-April, when he required surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. He’s been on a minor league rehab assignment and had been slated for a return early next week. However, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that Alvarez’s return will be delayed by at least a few days. There’s no setback or new injury, but Alvarez has flown home to Venezuela to tend to a family matter.

At this point, there’s no indication Alvarez will be delayed long. A return in latter half of next week still seems feasible. The 25-year-old has already appeared in five minor league games but could get a few more under his belt before being activated. He hit .236/.288/.364 in 16 games before incurring his injury but swatted 25 homers in 123 games (423 plate appearances) last season. Alvarez has hit for a subpar .212 average in 496 big league plate appearances but makes plenty of hard contact, draws a roughly average number of walks, has clear plus power and has made substantial defensive improvements in the past couple years.

In further Mets injury news, there’s some optimism with regard to Kodai Senga’s lengthy rehab process. He’s slated to throw a bullpen session next Monday or Tuesday, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. Originally placed on the IL due to a moderate capsule strain his right shoulder, Senga has encountered multiple setbacks along the way. He progressed to facing live hitters by late April but was scaled back to try to get his mechanics back in order. While going through that step, Senga sustained a triceps injury that necessitated a cortisone injection and another five-day shutdown period.

That latter setback came in late May, but the silver lining was that his ailing shoulder looked to be healed on that MRI. It seems both the shoulder and triceps are now approaching a point where he’ll be cleared to throw. There will still be multiple steps to check off before Senga is a realistic option to return to the Mets’ rotation. He’ll likely need multiple bullpen sessions, followed by live sessions against hitters and then a minor league rehab assignment that figures to last multiple starts (with a full slate of rest between each, of course). It seems unlikely he’d be able to check all those boxes by the end of this month, making a July return far more likely.

Senga, 31, is in the second season of a five-year, $75MM contract. The former NPB standout made the All-Star team last year in his rookie season. He also finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and seventh in NL Cy Young voting after pitching 166 1/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball with a 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, 44.7% grounder rate and 0.92 HR/9.

Mets Notes: Davis, Alonso, McNeil

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The Mets were a finalist for third baseman J.D. Davis before he signed with the A’s last week, as noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Per Sherman, a “large extent” of Davis’s reason for picking the A’s was that the A’s guaranteed him regular playing time, while the Mets weren’t able to do the same.

Davis, 31 next month, slashed a decent .248/.325/.413 with a 104 wRC+ last year as a member of the Giants and sports a strong 120 wRC+ in five seasons since he first broke out with the Mets back in 2019. A reunion in New York could have made plenty of sense, given the uncertainty the club is facing at both third base and DH entering the 2023 season. That being said, it’s hardly a surprise that the club wasn’t willing to guarantee Davis regular playing time. After all, president of baseball operations David Stearns has frequently made clear that the club doesn’t plan to make further additions at third base after signing Joey Wendle to a one-year deal back in November, instead letting youngsters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos attempt to claim the position while relying on Wendle as veteran insurance off the bench.

It’s a similar story at DH. While the club has been linked to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez as recently as last week, the club has long seemed to prefer to fill the spot internally by allowing Baty and Vientos additional time in the lineup when they aren’t playing third base while also opening up opportunities for the likes of DJ Stewart, who slashed an impressive .244/.333/.506 in 185 trips to the plate with the club last year, and offering the club the ability to rest veterans like Starling Marte without completely removing them from the lineup. While Davis was certainly a strong fit for the club’s positional needs, it’s possible they felt that his roughly league average numbers last year wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade to their roster to warrant passing on the opportunity to give younger players like Baty and Vientos regular reps.

More from around Mets camp…

  • Club owner Steve Cohen spoke to reporters (including SNY’s Alex Smith), and during the presser discussed the future of first baseman Pete Alonso, who is slated to hit free agency following the 2024 season. Cohen made clear that the sides “haven’t had any discussions” regarding a possible extension this spring, adding that it would be best for both Alonso and the Mets if the sides went into the regular season without any distractions. Cohen’s words echo previous comments from Stearns, who has long indicated that Alonso was likely to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Even so, Cohen made clear that Alonso hitting free agency was in no way a guarantee that 2024 would be his final year as a Met, saying that the club will “figure it out” once free agency hits while noting the club’s successful deals to retain closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo after the pair hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason. One of the game’s premiere power hitters, Alonso owns a lifetime .251/.342/.528 slash line and has slugged 192 home runs during his career, 46 of which came during the 2023 season.
  • As noted recently by Sherman, second baseman Jeff McNeil has yet to appear in a game this spring as he continues to recover from a partially torn UCL he was diagnosed with back in September. NcNeil was able to avoid surgery, but the club has taken things slow with him this spring to this point. While he was initially expected to make his spring debut during today’s game against the Nationals, Sherman relays that, per manager Carlos Mendoza, that’s been pushed back to a likely debut on Tuesday against the Cardinals in order to keep McNeil in a more controlled setting as long as possible. While a lengthy layoff from spring action often spurs questions about a player’s ability to be ready for Opening Day, Sherman adds that the Mets hold no such concern about McNeil, with hitting coach Eric Chavez suggesting that McNeil only needs 20 at-bats in spring games to prepare for the coming season. McNeil has played all around the diamond during his time with the Mets but figures to act as the club’s everyday second baseman in 2024.

NL East Notes: Alcantara, Robles, McNeil

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Injured Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara took a major step forward in his rehab from Tommy John surgery today, as The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson notes that the right-hander played catch this afternoon, marking the first time he’s thrown a baseball since going under the knife back in October. While that still leaves Alcantara a long way from a return to the mound, manager Skip Schumaker seemed optimistic regarding the 28-year-old’s rehab process as he noted to reporters that Alcantara is “probably three or four weeks ahead of schedule.”

Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.

While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.

More from around the NL East…

  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.
  • Mets manager Carlos Mendoza indicated to reporters, including Andrew Crane of the New York Post, recently that infielder Jeff McNeil remains at least a week away from receiving any sort of game action this spring. McNeil suffered a partially torn UCL in his left arm back in September and spent the offseason rehabbing the injury, which has caused the club to proceed with caution regarding a bout of left biceps soreness that first cropped up last week, though McNeil had already not appeared in Grapefruit League games yet since camp opened last month. That said, Crane adds that McNeil made some progress recently when he took dry swings early today without any pain in his biceps. Once healthy, McNeil will look to rebound as the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2024 on the heels of a 2023 campaign that saw the two-time All Star slash a pedestrian .270/.333/.378 in 648 trips to the plate.

NL East Notes: Braves, Lile, McNeil, Garrett, Rogers

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Because Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., is a publicly-traded company, their obligatory financial reports provide an annual peek into the Braves’ business dealings, and Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shared the details of the company’s disclosure earlier this week.  ABH Inc. reported $641MM in revenue in 2023 from the Braves and the associated ballpark village next to Truist Park known as The Battery Atlanta — this figure represents a sizable jump from the $589MM in revenues from 20222.  Between Truist Park’s opening in 2017 and the success of the Battery as an attraction outside of just Braves gamedays, the Braves have seen revenues soar from $262MM in 2016 to last year’s $641MM number, with only a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic.

However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023.  As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.”  The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization.  (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)

The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023.  The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM.  After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM.  The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.

Some more items from around the NL East…

  • Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game.  While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen.  Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan.  Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]
  • Jeff McNeil is dealing with some left biceps soreness and won’t hit for a few days, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post).  McNeil is still able to participate in fielding drills since he throws with his right arm, though his left arm continues to be a concern given how McNeil has a partially torn left UCL.  The thought was that McNeil would be fine after an offseason of recovery rather than surgery, and a biceps issue doesn’t necessarily hint at any further UCL damage.  The former NL batting champion and two-time All-Star is looking to bounce back from an underwhelming .270/.333/.378 slash line over 648 plate appearances in 2023.
  • Marlins manager Skip Schumaker provided media (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson and MLB.com) with some updates on starters Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers.  Garrett has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder for a couple of weeks but has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on “normal progression now” towards throwing a live batting practice, Schumaker said.  Rogers is tentatively scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut in a 20-pitch outing on Tuesday, as the Marlins have been building him slowly in camp in the aftermath of an injury-riddled 2023 season.  Rogers threw a live batting practice session on Thursday that left Schumaker impressed, as the southpaw “was throwing 93-94 mph in a setting with not much adrenaline.”

Mets Looking To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers This Offseason

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The Mets want to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, president of baseball operations David Stearns tells Tim Healey of Newsday. However, that may not involve pursuing the top guys available. “You always love to bring in top-flight talent and top-flight pitching,” Stearns said. “Do I think we need one? No. You can compile pitching staffs in a variety of different ways. Certainly any time you have horses at the front of the rotation, it makes everything else a little bit easier. But it’s not impossible to do it without that.”

The fact that the club is looking to make a number of additions is fairly sensible. Last year, they traded away their co-aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the deadline. At the end of the season, Carlos Carrasco became a free agent and David Peterson underwent hip surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of next year.

That leaves the rotation with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto options for the back end. Megill had a 4.70 earned run average in 2023 but with subpar strikeout and walk rates of 18.5% and 10.2%, respectively. Lucchesi had a strong 2.89 ERA in his nine starts but with just a 16.4% strikeout rate, likely helped by a strand rate of 80.1%. Butto has just 46 innings of major league work and he just posted a 5.93 ERA at Triple-A in 2023.

Given the state of things, it’s understandable that the club will be looking to bring in multiple arms in order to improve the rotation for 2024. Exactly how aggressive they will be is an open question. The club had the highest payroll in baseball history in 2023 but that didn’t work out and it seems 2024 might be something of a transitional year. It’s tough to know exactly what it looks like for owner Steve Cohen to take a step back from record-setting spending, as that could still lead to the club forking out plenty of money. Agent Scott Boras was asked about this and phrased it thusly: “When you have the bigger jet, and you say you’re going slower, you’re still going faster,” Boras said, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

That perhaps suggests the club is still indicating a certain level of aggression in its conversations with player agents, but the comments from Stearns also imply they might be happy to spread money around to various mid-level guys as opposed to targeting aces. At the top of the free agent market, pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are likely to land nine-figure deals. There should also be sizeable eight-figure deals available to pitchers like Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga. Then there will be guys like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Hyun Jin Ryu that should be attainable on low-cost bounceback deals. Time will tell how the Mets plan to assess these options but making a long-term investment would make sense even if they are pumping the brakes a bit. Quintana has just one year left on his deal and most of the club’s top prospects are position players, meaning there’s even more rotation uncertainty in the long term.

Stearns was also asked about first baseman Pete Alonso, per Sammon, and reiterated his previous position that he doesn’t expect a preseason trade. “I think I do not anticipate him getting traded,” Stearns said. “I don’t draw lines in the sand. And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.” Alonso is going into his final arbitration season before reaching free agency, so the club will have to pick a lane at some point. But with a good deal of uncertainty about the 2024 club, it seems they are leaning towards holding. If the club has another poor season in 2024, they could always pivot to a deadline deal.

Another option would be to pursue an extension. It doesn’t sound like anything is imminent there but it also doesn’t seem like the lines of communication are dead. “When it comes to the Polar Bear, we’re not in contract hibernation,” Boras said. He added that he follows the instructions given to him by his clients and Alonso has told him to listen to whatever the Mets have to say.

Sammon also rounds up a few other bits of Mets’ news from a busy week in the baseball world, including the fact that pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is going to stay on as pitching coach. With the club adding a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, it wasn’t known if he would then bring in someone from the outside for that job but Hefner will apparently stick around. Meanwhile, the club won’t hire a general manager this winter. Billy Eppler was going to be in that role before stepping aside amid an investigation into the club’s misuse of the injured list. Front offices are generally composed of dozens of decision makers, from assistant GMs to vice-presidents and so on, meaning the lack of someone with that specific GM title won’t mean much with Stearns the primary decision maker.

Turning back to the roster, neither outfielder Starling Marte nor infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil are expected to require offseason surgery. Marte had groin surgery last offseason and never seemed to be fully healthy in 2023, finishing the year on the injured list due to ongoing issues with his groin. McNeil, meanwhile, was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his left elbow. He throws with his right arm anyway but it appears both he and Marte are making good progress and can perhaps return without going under the knife this winter. As for designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach, the club is still undecided on whether or not they will tender him a contract for 2024. The non-tender deadline is November 17, giving them just over a week to pick a path with him. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Vogelbach for a salary of $2.6MM.

Jeff McNeil Diagnosed With Partially Torn UCL; Surgery Not Expected

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Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left elbow sprain earlier today, with infielder Danny Mendick replacing the 31-year-old on the active roster. McNeil subsequently revealed to reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that the injury is actually a partially torn UCL. While UCL damage is always an ominous sign, both McNeil and manager Buck Showalter downplayed the seriousness of the issue. Per McNeil, the plan is for the veteran infielder to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection into his elbow to help address the tear. Surgery is not currently being considered, and Showalter told reporters today that he expects McNeil will be good to go for Spring Training next season.

With just four games remaining in the 2023 regular season and the Mets not in the postseason picture, McNeil’s placement on the IL brought an end to his 2023 campaign even before the severity of the issue came to light. As was the case for many Mets players this year, the 2023 campaign was a down year for McNeil. On the heels of a resurgent 2022 season where he lead the majors with a .326 batting average and posted a 141 wRC+ in 589 trips to the plate, McNeil slashed a relatively lackluster .270/.333/.378, exactly league average by measure of wRC+.

That league average slash line belies McNeil’s overall value as a versatile, everyday left-handed bat capable of playing all over the diamond, and McNeil figures to be an asset to the Mets next season even if his offense doesn’t rebound to its previous levels. Of course, the club was surely hoping for above average offensive production when they inked McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension this past offseason. At least three years and $43.75MM remain on the contract, which bought out two of McNeil’s free agent years and added a $15.75MM club option for a third.

Looking ahead to 2024, McNeil should once again figure prominently in the Mets’ plans if he is able to return in time for Spring Training as expected. The club could offer extended looks to youngsters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos around the infield next year, given the club’s expectation of taking a step back in 2024 and primarily focusing on competing in 2025 and beyond. That being said, McNeil’s versatility should allow him to garner everyday at-bats between second base, third base, and the outfield corners even if the focus winds up being on developing young players next season.

As for Mendick, the 29-year-old utility player has received just 66 plate appearances in the big leagues this year, slashing a brutal .190/.227/.286 during that limited playing time. That being said, Mendick is just one year removed from a much stronger season with the White Sox during which he posted a solid .289/.343/.443 slash line across 106 trips to the plate. He figures to provide multi-positional depth off the bench for New York in the final games of the 2023 campaign.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Mets Notes: Senga, DH, McNeil, Extensions

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One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.

In other news out of Queens:

  • The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
  • New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.

Mets Sign Jeff McNeil To Four-Year Extension

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Jan. 31: The Mets formally announced McNeil’s extension this morning. He’ll be paid $6.25MM in 2023, $10.25MM in 2024  and $15.75MM in both 2025 and 2026, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The club option for 2027 is also valued at $15.75MM, and it comes with a $2MM buyout.

Jan. 27: The Mets and second baseman Jeff McNeil are in agreement on a four-year, $50MM contract extension, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The contract contains a club option for a fifth season, which could allow the extension to max out at $63.75MM over five years. The deal buys out the final two arbitration seasons for the Paragon Sports International client, and the Mets will gain control over what would’ve been McNeil’s first three free-agent seasons.

Unable to come to terms on a one-year salary for the upcoming season, McNeil and the Mets appeared headed toward an arbitration hearing. He’d filed for a $7.75MM salary on the heels of his first National League batting title in 2022, whereas the Mets had countered with a $6.25MM figure. Those sums can now be thrown out, as McNeil’s final two arbitration years are locked in. If we count 2023 at the $7MM midpoint of those two sums and figure McNeil could’ve earned anywhere from $12-13MM in what would’ve been his final arbitration season, the Mets are guaranteeing somewhere in the vicinity of an additional $30MM to lock in two more free-agent seasons and secure a reasonably priced club option on a third free-agent year.

McNeil, 31 in April, is now locked in through at least his age-34 campaign and possibly his age-35 season. He’s fresh off one of the finest seasons of his career, having turned in a .326/.382/.454 batting line with nine home runs, 39 doubles, a triple and four stolen bases in 589 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, that season earned him a second career All-Star nod and won him Silver Slugger honors in the National League — his first such award.

McNeil was one of the toughest strikeouts in the Majors, fanning in a career-low 10.4% of his plate appearances. He’s never walked much and didn’t change that in 2022 (6.8%), but it’s difficult to argue with the results. McNeil benefited to an extent from a career-high .353 average on balls in play, but even if that mark regresses toward the .324 mark he carried into the 2022 season, his bat-to-ball skills and penchant for finding the gaps will allow him to remain the well above-average hitter he was for the majority of the 2018-21 seasons.

The 2022 season was also very arguably the finest defensive season of McNeil’s career. Each of Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.5) and Outs Above Average (7) pegged him as a strong handler of the glove at second base. He also logged some brief time in the outfield corners (278 innings) and drew average or better reviews for his work there, and he even chipped in a lone inning at third base for good measure. Second base will continue to be his primary home on the diamond, but McNeil has shown in the past that he’s a capable third baseman, left fielder or right fielder, which only adds to his value for the Mets.

Of course, since we’re discussing the Mets, the financial ramifications of the contract extend well beyond the $50MM that McNeil himself will receive. The Mets are already over the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier this season, meaning any dollars they spend are taxed at a 90% clip. Had McNeil won his arbitration hearing and secured a $7.75MM salary, that would’ve meant the Mets would’ve paid $6.975MM in taxes on his salary — bringing the total expenditure to $14.725MM. Instead, the Mets will now be taxed based on the $12.5MM average annual value of McNeil’s contract. That means they’ll pay $11.25MM in taxes on McNeil’s contract this year — an increase of $4.275MM over what they’d have paid him had he won an arbitration hearing.

There’s some down-the-road tax benefit to extending McNeil — even beyond the obvious value in keeping an excellent player at a reasonable rate for the next half decade. Had McNeil won an arbitration hearing next month — and coming off a batting title, he’d have had a strong case — he’d have landed that $7.75MM salary. With another strong season, he’d quite possibly have been in for a raise beyond the $12.5MM AAV of his current contract in his final arb season, when the Mets will likely again be in the top tier of luxury penalization (with overages being taxed at a 110% clip). The extension, then, could wind up saving the Mets $1MM or so off their luxury ledger for the 2024 season — assuming McNeil has a healthy and productive 2023 campaign.

Setting aside any such minutiae, the primary benefit to the Mets is simply keeping a two-time All-Star and paying an annual rate that, with good health for McNeil, will likely clock in below his true open-market value by the time the 2024-25 offseason rolls around. There’s certainly some risk for the Mets, as one need only look at McNeil’s pedestrian .251/.319/.360 batting line from 2021 to see that his lack of power (outside of the juiced ball campaign in 2019) leaves him with a fairly tepid floor. The Mets already had control over McNeil’s age-31 and age-32 seasons, and it’s always possible that preemptively buying out a player’s age-33 through age-35 seasons could look regrettable in hindsight.

That said, the aforementioned ’21 campaign is the lone below-average offensive season of McNeil’s career, and his contact skills and defensive aptitude at multiple positions figure to make him a perennially useful player even into his mid-30s. It’s not realistic to expect him to replicate his 2022 production in the years ahead, but there’s little reason to think this deal will turn into some form of egregious misstep, either.

McNeil now joins Max Scherzer ($43MM), Justin Verlander ($43MM), Francisco Lindor ($34.1MM), Brandon Nimmo ($20.5MM), Starling Marte ($20.75MM), Edwin Diaz ($21.25MM), Kodai Senga ($15MM), Jose Quintana ($13MM) and Tomas Nido ($2.1MM) as players locked into their 2024 salaries.

Assuming an even distribution of McNeil’s salary, that’d come out to just over $225MM guaranteed to 10 players, with another four club options (Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Brooks Raley, Darin Ruf), two player options (Omar Narvaez, Adam Ottavino) and a nine-player arbitration class headlined by Pete Alonso all potentially adding to the bill.

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

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