Johnny Cueto

Cueto Diagnosed With Groin Strain; Crawford Dislocates Finger

By Steve Adams | September 21, 2016 at 7:55pm CDT

7:52pm: Cueto has been diagnosed with a grade 1 strain but will likely only need to have his next start pushed back, per manager Bruce Bochy, via Baggarly (Twitter link). Meanwhile, Crawford is wearing a splint and won’t play tonight, but says he expects to play through the injury once the pain subsides somewhat, MLB.com’s Chris Haft tweets.

8:58am: While the Giants topped the Dodgers last night in a 2-0 victory, the win was somewhat bittersweet, as both Johnny Cueto and Brandon Crawford departed early with injuries. Crawford dislocated his left pinkie finger while sliding into third base, whereas Cueto suffered a groin strain that will lead to an MRI today, as Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes.

Cueto was in good spirits following the injury and displayed a sense of humor about the injury, likening the injury to “a crab going there and biting me,” per Baggarly. Cueto’s curious and upbeat demeanor notwithstanding, though, the Giants can ill afford to lose their rotation’s No. 2 even for a lone start. San Francisco is currently in a three-way tie with New York and St. Louis for the two National League Wild Card spots, so each of the remaining 11 games on the Giants’ schedule is of the utmost importance to their postseason hopes. Giants GM Bobby Evans called Cueto day-to-day last night when asked by ESPN’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link), but the extent of the damage remains to be seen.

Cueto, 30, signed a six-year, $130MM contract with an opt-out following the second season of the deal this winter, as the Giants showed faith that his downturn in effectiveness during his Royals tenure was an aberration and not the beginning of any notable decline. Cueto has emphatically rewarded that faith in his first Giants season, pitching to a pristine 2.79 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 212 1/3 innings behind ace Madison Bumgarner in the rotation. While the Giants have been ice cold in the season’s second half, that pairing alone would give the team as formidable a punch as any opponent could muster in a short playoff series.

Crawford, meanwhile, had his finger popped back into place in the tunnel following the injury and was wearing a splint on his hand after the game. However, the Giants are at least somewhat fortunate that the injury was sustained on Crawford’s glove hand as opposed to this throwing hand. X-rays after the game ruled out a fracture, Baggarly writes, but the 29-year-old shortstop is listed as day-to-day as well, with the chief concern likely to be how the finger injury impacts his ability to swing a bat. Crawford is one of baseball’s premier defenders at shortstop and is in the midst of his third consecutive above-average season at the plate, having batted .268/.334/.424 with a dozen homers, 28 doubles and nine triples under his belt.

Quick Hits: July 2 Market, Giants, Dodgers, Ubaldo

By Mark Polishuk | June 12, 2016 at 10:59pm CDT

Some news from around baseball as we wrap up the weekend…

With the next international signing window opening on July 2, Baseball America’s Ben Badler profiles (in two separate pieces) 10 youngsters likely to receive seven-figure bonuses. Kevin Maitan is perhaps the mostly highly-touted player of the entire 2016-17 class, as the 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop is rumored to be in line for a bonus north of $4MM, most likely from the Braves. “Nobody is a can’t miss but it’s hard to see him missing,” one scout says of Maitan. As always, it’s well worth getting a BA subscription to read the full scouting reports and news, including how the Braves, Padres and A’s are connected to two players each, with others rumored to be signing with the Nationals, Astros, Rockies and Mariners.
The Giants and Dodgers both pursued some major free agent arms last winter, and the results of that hunt are being seen this season, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. After missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants pivoted to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, who have both been workhorses for the club. The Dodgers weren’t interested in either Cueto or Samardzija at the price of their respective contracts with the Giants, and according to Cueto via an interpreter, the Dodgers never offered him a contract at all. “They were telling me to wait,” Cueto said. After missing out on Greinke, L.A. made two less-expensive signings in Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir, though as Shaikin notes, the Dodgers’ main issue this season has been a lack of offense.
Ubaldo Jimenez was rocked for five runs in just a third of an inning today, the shortest start of his Major League career. Jimenez now has a 6.89 ERA over 62 2/3 IP this season, leading Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun to wonder just how much longer the Orioles can continue using him in the rotation. Jimenez can’t be sent with the minors without his permission, and releasing him isn’t likely with roughly $21MM owed to him through the 2017 season.
If the Orioles do replace Jimenez in the rotation, Dylan Bundy won’t be a candidate, as Encina details in another Baltimore Sun piece that the O’s are focusing on slowly rebuilding Bundy’s arm strength with an eye towards having him contend for a starting spot next spring. Buck Showalter said the aim is to have Bundy throw 60-75 innings out of the bullpen this season. Bundy, the fourth overall pick of the 2011 draft, has had his career delayed by several injuries, including Tommy John surgery.
Robinson Cano’s decision to sign with the Mariners after the 2013 season led to shockwaves throughout the second base market that could still be felt in some of this past offseason’s moves, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes. Of the six teams (the Cubs, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Mets and Yankees) Sherman ranks as the most impacted by Cano’s signing, the Yankees are ranked last, as it is still unclear as to whether Starlin Castro is the club’s long-term answer at the keystone.

NL Notes: Cueto, Leake, Nats, Bucs, Phillies

By Connor Byrne | May 29, 2016 at 2:01pm CDT

Despite signing a six-year, $130MM deal with the Giants in the offseason, right-hander Johnny Cueto’s excellence in San Francisco has somehow flown under the radar, writes Sarah Langs of ESPN.com. Not only has Cueto pitched to a 2.38 ERA across 75 2/3 innings this year, but he has done it while giving the Giants length, as Langs writes. Cueto is tied for the league lead with superstars Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale in complete games (three), and he’s second to Kershaw in seven-inning starts (nine). His changeup has been particularly dominant, as Cueto has induced swings and misses a career-best 44 percent of the time with it. Batters have hit a paltry .175 against the pitch and Cueto has fanned 29 hitters while deploying it with two strikes, which ranks behind only Stephen Strasburg. When batters have put Cueto’s changeup in play, they’ve hit it on the ground 74 percent of the time.

NL Notes: Cueto, Jennings, Pirates

By charliewilmoth | March 14, 2016 at 10:40pm CDT

Giants starter Johnny Cueto was hit in the head on a Billy Burns liner on the first pitch of his outing Monday night, according to various reporters, including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman. Cueto stayed in the game and pitched three innings, but was checked by team doctors after pitching and will head to the hospital in accordance with team protocol (Twitter links). One would think the Giants would have removed Cueto from the game after the incident if they had considered the issue serious (acknowledging, of course, that pro sports teams have at times underestimated the impact of potential concussions). There would have been no reason for the Giants to keep Cueto in a Spring Training game if they had any indication he was hurt. Still, the situation bears monitoring. Here’s more from around the NL.

The grievance filed by the Marlins against the Nationals regarding former Marlins GM and manager Dan Jennings was settled in favor of the Nationals, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. The Nationals are paying Jennings $115K to be a special assistant to GM Mike Rizzo. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the Marlins took issue with that salary because they owed Jennings $1.5MM based on his previous contract with them, minus his salary in his new position. The Marlins thought the Nats’ $115K salary was too low given Jennings’ responsibilities, and that they were therefore on the hook for too much of his remaining salary. Via Janes, though, the disagreement has been resolved. “It’s an old grievance, and it has been settled,” says Rizzo.
Pirates GM Neal Huntington is excited about his organization’s Triple-A rotation, Stephen A. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. The Bucs today optioned top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon to Triple-A Indianapolis and reassigned fellow starters Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and Trevor Williams. (They also optioned outfielder Harold Ramirez and reassigned catcher Reese McGuire and lefty Kelvin Marte.) Of those starting pitchers, Glasnow and Taillon are the headliners, but Kuhl, Brault and Williams are all prospects in their own right. All could wind up pitching at Indianapolis this year (although perhaps not right away, as Nesbitt notes, since the Bucs might need to preserve a spot there for a depth starter like Kyle Lobstein or Wilfredo Boscan.) “The future is bright,” says Huntington. “You run Taillon, Glasnow, Kuhl, Brault and Williams out in one setting — that’s a very exciting group. … Each one of them brings something that’s very, very intriguing. Now you put that group of five together, it bodes well for our future.” Kuhl is a sinkerballer who pitched well for Double-A Altoona last season. Brault, a lefty, excelled at Class A+ and Double-A after arriving last winter in the trade that sent Travis Snider to Baltimore. And Williams is a recent arrival who the Bucs acquired from the Marlins when pitching guru Jim Benedict headed to Miami.

NL West Notes: Lincecum, Cueto, Gillaspie, Cain, Urias

By Mark Polishuk | February 21, 2016 at 10:56pm CDT

The Padres have spoken to Tim Lincecum’s agent and will have scouts in attendance to see the righty throw in a showcase scheduled for later in February, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Rick Thurman, Lincecum’s agent, said he’d talked to the Padres “a number of times” but had also been in contact with “quite a few other teams” as well, with at least 20 teams requesting Lincecum’s medical information. There seems to be enough interest that, provided Lincecum’s showcase goes well, he should be able to land his desired Major League contract. If such a deal is found with San Diego, the Padres could line Lincecum up as their fourth or fifth starter and move one of their many other back-of-the-rotation candidates into the bullpen. Here’s some more from around the NL West…

Johnny Cueto’s extra workload from the Royals’ postseason run will slightly impact how the Giants treat him in camp, pitching coach Dave Righetti tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. “He’s been through some playoff situations, but when you go to the World Series you go the extra mile,” Righetti said. “We know it takes stuff out of guys regardless of how young and strong they are….So, absolutely, you would monitor him anyway. Being that he pitched an extra month, you’re darn right.”
Conor Gillaspie has regrets over his first stint with the Giants, telling reporters (including Schulman) that “obviously, I was young and probably not mentally or physically or socially where I needed to be” when he broke in with San Francisco as a rookie. Now back with the team on a minor league deal, Gillaspie feels he’s matured and is thankful to the Giants for giving him a chance.
Matt Cain has gone from a cornerstone to an x-factor with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes, as both the team and the pitcher are hopeful but measured about what Cain can deliver in 2016. Injuries played a role in Cain’s rough last two seasons, though beyond health, his sudden propensity for allowing homers didn’t help Cain’s faith in himself.
Julio Urias is facing a lot of pressure as both arguably the game’s top pitching prospect and maybe even “the next Fernando Valenzuela,” though Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown relates how the 19-year-old Dodgers phenom is trying to take his development step by step.

Quick Hits: Mets, Epstein, Giants, Padres

By | January 9, 2016 at 11:14pm CDT

The Mets want a reliever, but they’ll patiently wait for one to fall into their lap, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Clippard are both options, but GM Sandy Alderson doesn’t want to go beyond a one-year contract for either. Bastardo is asking for three-years while Clippard’s demands are unknown. Alderson has a history of finding relievers during Spring Training, and the club does possess decent, if unproven, depth at the position.

Here’s more from around the league:

Preliminary contract extension talks have occurred between the Cubs and President Theo Epstein, tweets 670 The Score. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts says the two sides are “generally on the same page,” with regards to the talks. Epstein is entering the final season of a five-year, $18.5MM deal signed in 2011.
Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Grant Brisbee of SB Nation analyzed the Giants’ offseason to date. He figures the additions of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Denard Span over Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Chris Heston, and Nori Aoki add up to eight wins on paper. Brisbee uses 2016 projections for the newly added Giants and compares them to the actual 2015 performance of the outgoing players. The upgrades cost a bundle of money, putting to rest complaints that the front office is stingy.
There is a feeling the Padres may be nearing an end to their shortstop search, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The club has used 18 shortstops since 2009, and their best prospects at the position are at least two years away. Free agents Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez have been most closely tied to the Padres. Desmond is coming off an ill-timed down season, and he has a history of suspect defense. When asked about what he wants from a shortstop, GM A.J. Preller said “I think in an ideal world, you want someone who is an intelligent player, a leader and captain of your infield, the ability to make the plays on the move, on the run, up the middle, in the hole. Someone, when the ball is hit to him late in the game, it’s an out.” While that may not sound like a taut fit for Desmond, Ramirez also had a choppy defensive season in 2015. While Brock doesn’t mention him, I wonder if the Padres might not be looking at Jimmy Rollins. He’s arguably the most sure-handed of the bunch.

The Dollar Value Of Recent Opt-Out Clauses

By Matt Swartz | January 5, 2016 at 9:45am CDT

Following a wave of multi-year club options attached to deals, players and their agents have begun to request and receive player options in recent years as well. David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward have each received them this winter, meaning that quantification of such deals is essential for careful team building. (Editor’s note: this article was written before the Dodgers reached an agreement with Scott Kazmir.) Everyone up to the commissioner has expressed concern that these “opt-out” clauses have been included in deals, and some feel teams simply should not give them. However, this is akin to saying that teams should not pay players above the league minimum salary—of course teams would like to do this, but you need to give players compensation to sign them. An opt-out is a way to lower the cost in dollars to the team, because the player will want more money otherwise.

Each of these three deals would be substantially more expensive without opt-out provisions—each opt-out clause is worth around $20MM, by my calculations. To test this, I looked at how a rough weighting of previous years’ WAR would affect a future projection, and compared this to how that projection would crystalize as it got closer. This led to an estimate that a very rough projection of future value 2-3 years in advance would change by about 1.0 WAR over the following 2-3 years. A more sophisticated system would probably change by about 0.7 WAR as it gets closer—and dollar value would probably change by about $7MM per year after accounting for overall uncertainty in salary levels. (The relationship between dollars and WAR utilized in this post is explained at this link.)

Given that potential level of variation, there are still a wide band of possibilities in terms of what a given player’s expected future value will be at the point of decision on an opt-out. But at base, an opt out is a binary choice: yes or no. Based on what we know now, and based on reasonable projections, we can estimate a given player’s future expected value at that point of decision by weighting different possible outcomes.

In other words, if Player X opts out, we can assume it is because his anticipated value at the point of that decision is higher than that which he would have earned through the remaining portion of the contract. But we don’t know exactly how much higher. So, to arrive at a value for the scenario in which a player does opt out, I’ve weighted all of those possibilities and reduced them to a single dollar value. The same holds true of the situations in which the player does not opt out.

We’ll get into each player’s situation further below, but this table shows the results of the exercise. (App users can click on this link to see the table image.)

David Price received a contract for seven years at $217MM, but it was really a three-year contract for $90MM with a player option of four years and $127MM. If Price only held teams to a three-year commitment, he would probably get close to $120MM—but this is not what he did. Instead, he will require $127MM for 2019-22, only on the condition that he looks to be worth less than that by then. Although $127MM is not a terrible estimate of his 2019-22 production as of January 2016, this value will probably change drastically by October 2018, one way or the other. If he does not opt out, he probably will have performed worse, and conditional on the assumption that he will not have opted out, I estimate his expected value for his 2019-22 seasons to be $80MM. If he does opt out, he probably will have performed better, and conditional on the assumption that he will have opted out, I estimate his expected value for those seasons to be $170MM. Given that this corresponds to roughly a 40% chance of opting out, his opt-out clause is worth about $17MM, meaning that his seven-year $217MM contract is roughly equivalent to a seven-year $234MM contract with no opt-out clause.

Johnny Cueto’s contract is somewhat trickier, but it essentially amounts to a deal of two years for $46MM, with a player option of four years and $84MM, followed by a club option of one year for $16MM. Cueto would probably be worth $17MM above his salary for 2016-17. But for 2018-21, he is likely to be worth $50MM if he does not opt out and $117MM if he does. With roughly even odds of opting out, this makes his opt-out worth about $17MM. While the club option for 2022 makes the deal somewhat more attractive for the Giants, the odds that he will be worth much more than this are low. Overall, Cueto’s six-year deal for $130MM would probably cost about $147MM with no opt-out clause.

Jason Heyward’s contract is even trickier, but it mostly boils down to a three-year deal for $78MM, followed by a five-year player option for $106MM—except that the first player option (if exercised) is only certain to include one more year for $20MM. That’s because there’s a vesting provision that, if triggered—by Heyward reaching 550 plate appearances in the season following the initial option decision—would give him yet another player option for four years and $86MM. (If he exercises the initial option but then doesn’t reach that PA threshold, then both sides would be stuck with the remaining four years of the contract.) Heyward’s value is further complicated by the fact that signing him required forfeiting a draft pick, which is worth around $9MM.

Although Heyward’s contract contains two opt-outs, it is not all that likely that he opts out after 2019 if he does not after 2018. Players’ values do change substantially, but he is likely to be either much more valuable than his five-year player option after 2018, or much less valuable. It is not that we expect his value to look similar after 2018 and 2019—it is that he will probably already be way above or way below the current expected value near $20MM per year, and is likely to remain way above or way below this line through 2019.

For the first three years of Heyward’s contract, I estimate that he is worth about $22MM more than his contract will pay him. With five years of player option, there is a wide range of potential values afterward. I estimate that he also has about even odds of opting out, but if he does not opt out then he is probably only worth $65MM, while if he does he would be worth $157MM. If he doesn’t opt out after 2018 and does after 2019, he is likely near the middle and the value of the second opt-out is small. The net effect is that his opt-out clauses are worth about $25MM, and he would probably have received $209MM for eight years instead of $184MM had no opt-out been included in the deal.

With values of $17MM for each of the two pitchers and $25MM for Heyward’s pair of opt-outs, these opt-outs help keep costs down for teams. While they contain more downside and less upside than typical free agent contracts, they cost less money as well. As teams move forward in this new market, they should be careful to properly consider the true cost of these player options. If teams are willing to expose themselves to some downside risk, they can lower the cost of acquiring elite players.

Dodgers Notes: Cueto, Friedman, Chapman

By Zachary Links | December 20, 2015 at 12:24pm CDT

Here’s a look at the Dodgers:

In an interview with MLB Network Radio, agent Bryce Dixon said that the Dodgers were in on Johnny Cueto “up until the last couple days” (Twitter links via Jon Morosi of FOX Sports). Dixon thought that Cueto would have been a “real good fit” for the Dodgers, but, in the end, the Giants made the stronger offer. At the Winter Meetings in Nashville (before a deal was struck with the Giants) Dixon told MLBTR that he thought Cueto could help form a strong rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles.
Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News isn’t sure that he understands Andrew Friedman’s plan for the Dodgers. He doesn’t feel that Friedman has made unwise deals, but he also doesn’t feel that Friedman’s moves fit together well. Whicker is also concerned about the Dodgers’ lack of a clear No. 2 next to Kershaw after the departure of Greinke and Cueto signing with the Giants. He opines that landing Jose Fernandez from the Marlins would be the best way to fill the No. 2 spot in the rotation and also supports the idea of trading for Rays hurler Jake Odorizzi, something L.A. has explored.
The Dodgers are damned if the do and damned if they don’t, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. If the Dodgers retained Zack Greinke, signed Hisashi Iwakuma, and dealt for Aroldis Chapman, they’d get slammed for spending too much. Now that they haven’t made those moves (for different reasons), some folks are critical of what they view as inaction on the part of Los Angeles’ front office. “I remind the thin-skinned people in front offices of the smart words Hyman Roth gave Michael Corleone in that hotel room in Havana — ‘This is the business we have chosen,’ ” Dodgers president Stan Kasten said by phone. “The criticism and fishbowl scrutiny is just part of the business. … I am really proud to represent a team that has won 90 games and the division title [each of the last three years]. Yet, that is not good enough for our fans, the media, ownership and me. That is the way it should be. We are the Dodgers, we represent Los Angeles. We should expect to compete for the top every year. Criticism is what goes along with that, which is just fine.”

NL West Notes: Rockies, Cueto, Dodgers

By charliewilmoth | December 19, 2015 at 3:24pm CDT

The Rockies have made a few small moves this offseason, but they haven’t yet addressed their rotation, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. It’s unclear where the Rockies will go from here, Saunders writes — a deal with the Indians might have made at least a bit of sense, although, via ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider-only), the Indians don’t appear to see any urgent need to deal Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. A trade with the Rays might be a possibility, but the Rays have already been connected to a number of other teams (including, today, the Cardinals). And as was reported yesterday, the Rockies weren’t able to get Kevin Gausman from the Orioles in return for Carlos Gonzalez. Here’s more from the NL West.

Giants GM Bobby Evans says his team’s MRI of Johnny Cueto’s elbow “looked great,” Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. Cueto had a flexor strain last season, but it appears to be healed. It sounds, then, like the Cueto’s physical exam reassured the Giants that their $130MM commitment to him was the right move.
The Dodgers’ end of the three-way Todd Frazier trade (in which they received youngsters Frankie Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson) added talent to the organization, but their return also initially appeared a bit puzzling given that they presumably plan to compete in 2016. The deal might, however, be part of a broader plan to add talent that they can use to acquire veterans, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. That could mean they trade for a young starter like Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently tweeted, top Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman answered affirmatively when asked if the Frazier deal made him feel better about dealing prospects. “Obviously, we’re having a lot of conversations that involve us potentially trading some prospects in different-type scenarios,” says Friedman. “This wasn’t necessarily directed at that, but it’s connected in the same way every move we make has some connection. Expanding our talent base is helpful on multiple fronts.”
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs , meanwhile, suggests a package that the Dodgers could use to land Chris Archer of the Rays. Such a deal could conceivably be based around young Dodgers infielder Corey Seager, with the deal also potentially including someone like Rays reliever Jake McGee. Cameron notes that the Dodgers would be reluctant to part with Seager, but, of course, the Rays would be reluctant to part with Archer as well, and the two teams have plenty to offer one another.

Giants Sign Johnny Cueto

By Steve Adams | December 17, 2015 at 4:28pm CDT

DEC. 17: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports that Cueto doesn’t receive a no-trade clause but will pick up a $500K bonus if he’s moved to another team (links to Twitter). Baggarly adds that the seventh-year option is for $22MM and comes with a $5MM buyout. Additionally, he notes, Cueto still gets the $5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal after the 2017 season.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has the contract’s entire breakdown (Twitter link). Cueto receives a $5MM signing bonus and a $15MM salary in 2016. He’ll then be paid $21MM annually from 2017-21. Heyman also notes that the option buyout will be given to Cueto in the form of a bonus, should he opt out of his deal, thereby giving him a guarantee of $46MM over the first two years of the deal and, effectively, a four-year, $84MM player option.

DEC. 16: The Giants have officially announced the deal.

DEC. 14:, 3:37pm: The Giants have made their second significant rotation splash of the offseason, announcing on Monday that they’ve agreed to a six-year contract with right-hander Johnny Cueto, pending a physical. The Bryce Dixon client will reportedly receive a $130MM guarantee and an opt-out clause after two seasons. The contract is said to pay Cueto $46MM prior to the opt-out and also contains a club option for a seventh season, should Cueto elect not to opt out.

With this new contract, Cueto will have the ability to hit the free-agent market again in advance of his age-32 season. As we saw with Zack Greinke this winter, that timing can be highly beneficial to a pitcher. Cueto would have to forfeit a guaranteed $84MM over a four-year term in order to exercise that out clause. While that’s a notable sum, it’s certainly not difficult to see him having a case for more if he pitches up to his previous standards across the first two seasons of the deal.

Cueto, who turns 30 in February, split the 2015 season between the Reds (with whom he had spent his entire career) and Royals, working to a 3.44 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are down, by his standards — the result of some late struggles with the Royals that saw Cueto log a 6.49 ERA over his final 51 1/3 regular-season innings in Kansas City. While health wasn’t said to be an issue for Cueto, he did miss a start with a minor elbow issue earlier in the summer, though the Royals still felt comfortable trading three prospects — left-handers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed — for him, and Cueto was brilliant for his first three starts in Royal Blue.

It’s not certain what the cause for Cueto’s troubles in Kansas City were, though some issues with the placement of catcher Salvador Perez’s target and the adjustment to the American League were oft-cited suggestions for his diminished results. Cueto was inconsistent in the playoffs but hurled a pair of utterly dominant gems (in addition to a pair of shakier outings), capping off his 2015 season and his brief Royals career with a one-run, complete-game masterpiece against the Mets in Game Two of the World Series. The pair of excellent postseason outings likely quelled some of the concerns over Cueto’s health, and this contract, plus his reported $120MM offer from Arizona, indicate that some clubs haven’t been overly scared by his elbow.

Cueto will join fellow offseason signee Jeff Samardzija in slotting behind ace Madison Bumgarner atop a new-look Giants rotation. They’ll be joined by right-handers Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, with 2015 rookie Chris Heston presumably serving as a valuable swingman — taking over the role formerly held by the non-tendered Yusmeiro Petit.

The $130MM guarantee and $21.7MM annual value are a steep price, to be sure, but a healthy Cueto has proven to be worthy of that type of commitment when at his best. From 2011-15, Cueto worked to a 2.71 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 despite pitching his home games at one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly environments: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. In that time, the lone pitcher to throw at least 800 MLB innings and post a better ERA than Cueto’s mark of 2.71 was Dodgers ace and new division rival Clayton Kershaw. One can imagine, then, that moving from GABP to the extremely pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco, would stand to benefit Cueto’s already impressive numbers. (Of course, one could’ve made the same argument about the spacious Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, although Cueto moved to a new league in that scenario.)

From a payroll perspective, the Giants already have about $130MM committed to 12 players, plus a sizable raise coming for first baseman Brandon Belt, who MLBTR projects to earn $6.2MM next season. As such, Cueto’s new deal will push the club’s payroll commitment to around $153MM before factoring in Belt’s new contract. That’s a sizable sum and is within striking distance of last year’s $173MM Opening Day mark. However, San Francisco will see Peavy, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez all come off the books following the 2016 campaign, so there’s plenty of long-term flexibility to accommodate a sizable yearly salary for Cueto.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the Giants were making a big push for Cueto. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the two sides had reached an agreement (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the term (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the guarantee (Twitter link). Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the club had confirmed the deal, adding details on the opt-out and club option (links to Twitter). Heyman tweeted that Cueto would get $46MM prior to the opt-out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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