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Johnny Cueto

Quick Hits: Rockies, Royals, Morales, Gordon, Zobrist, Cuba

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The Rockies should look at the Royals’ model of success, opines Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Both teams are mid-market clubs so they share the same constraints. In today’s game, that often means they can’t compete for top or even mid-tier free agents. Royals GM Dayton Moore told Saunders “You have to continually make the transition with two or three impact players [from the farm system], every single year. That means a position player, a starter and a bullpen piece.” Additionally, bold trades like the swap of Troy Tulowitzki are necessary too. The Rockies received Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco in the deal. While Reyes is the most recognizable name, the trade was all about the three pitching prospects. Colorado absolutely must solve their rotation woes if they want to field a consistently good club.

  • The Royals success in the middle of the free agent market may be the trait rival teams attempt to replicate this offseason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. We’ve already heard about numerous ways other clubs hope to emulate the Royals with athleticism, defense, and an elite bullpen as oft cited details. However, the club also brought in eight productive free agents for just $35.875MM. With a deep and talented free agent pool this offseason, we may see clubs eschew top targets like Jason Heyward in favor of multiple additions (Sherman lists Gerardo Parra, Darren O’Day, and Marco Estrada as an example).
  • Kansas City did get lucky in one regard, per Sherman. Their top target for designated hitter was Torii Hunter. Had he signed with the Royals, they would not have pursued Kendrys Morales. Instead, the former Angel and Twin led the club with 22 home runs and 106 RBI.
  • Sherman also notes that the Royals hope to re-sign Alex Gordon and Ben Zobrist. The club will not pursue Johnny Cueto.
  • The U.S. government and Major League Baseball have been working on a new system for would-be Cuban defectors to reach America, writes Michael S. Schmidt and Julie Hirschfeld of the New York Times. Presently, Cuban players usually have to survive dangerous journeys in order to defect. Smugglers often take a large percentage the player’s initial contract as payment. While creating a transparent process for moving from the Serie Nacional to state-side professional baseball would solve a human rights issue, there are still barriers. Most notably, any payment to the Cuban government would violate the U.S. trade embargo with the island. Any typical compensation scheme would either directly or indirectly send money to the Cuban government.

Free Agent Notes: Lee, Cueto, Gordon, O’Day

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Korean first baseman Dae-ho Lee, who is currently with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, could draw interest from Major League teams if he turns down his 2016 player option, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes (links to Twitter). The right-handed hitter will turn 34 next June, so he’s a good bit older than some other international free agents we’ve heard about, but Lee’s .282/.364/.524 batting line and 31 homers in 2015 are nonetheless impressive. Lee has enough service time that he is exempt from the posting process. In other words, if he turns down the option, he could jump right into a free agent class of first basemen that’s currently headlined by Chris Davis and Korean star Byung-ho Park.

A few more notes on some upcoming free agents…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the postseason’s impact on the price tag for free agents Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon and Daniel Murphy. Relaying some chatter from executives with whom he’s spoken, Sherman has heard some liken Cueto to James Shields a year ago. Shields hit the open market with higher expectations than the four years and $75MM he ultimately landed, though that, in my eyes, is still too low a price for Cueto, who is younger with a more dominant track record and no qualifying offer attached to his name. More surprising is the lack of support for Gordon, who “could” get to somewhere north of $75MM over five years with the benefit of open-market bidding, Sherman writes. A five-year $75MM contract for Gordon seems to me to be very much on the low end of the spectrum. While others at MLBTR are more bullish on Gordon than I am, I still think he’ll end up much closer to, if not north of $100MM as a free agent. Sherman also suggests a contract in the four-year, $68MM range as a possibility for Zobrist despite his advanced age.
  • Fans shouldn’t be dismissive of recent suggestions that the Red Sox could make a play for Gordon this winter, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Pursuing Gordon is an idea that “has at least been considered” by the Red Sox’ inner circle, he writes, noting that Gordon’s glove would maintain an elite outfield defense in Boston and possibly allow the team to include Jackie Bradley in trade packages.
  • Free agency is looming around the corner and comes with significant ramifications for the Orioles, who could potentially lose Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly. However, Connolly hears that the Orioles have had talks with many of those players, and agent Jeff Borris, who represents O’Day, told Connolly that the conversations he’s had with the Orioles won’t stop even with free agency nearing. “We’ve had ongoing discussions with Baltimore throughout the season and I plan on continuing to have ongoing discussions with Baltimore,” said Borris. “However, time is of the essence because free agency is right around the corner.” 

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Red Sox Notes: Cueto, Varitek, Moncada

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The Red Sox are “at least considering making a serious push” for Johnny Cueto this offseason, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. As Mastrodonato notes, that isn’t necessarily especially meaningful at this point in the offseason, since the Red Sox are surely as least considering making a run at any number of pitchers. If the Red Sox do give serious consideration to Cueto, Mastrodonato writes, his poor postseason performances in 2013 and this season are part of a mystery they’ll have to solve before they sign him. Here are a couple more quick notes out of Boston.

  • The Mariners have interviewed Jason Varitek for their open managerial job, but if he doesn’t receive it, he will stay in the Red Sox organization, Scott Lauber of the Herald tweets. Varitek currently serves as special assistant to the GM in Boston.
  • A hand injury suffered in instructional league play might keep top prospect Yoan Moncada from playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Moncada was hit by a pitch early this month, and the Sox want to be cautious with Moncada. The league is set to begin October 30 and continue through early January. The highly-touted Moncada hit .278/.380/.438 in 363 plate appearances with Class A Greenville in his introduction to American pro ball in 2015.

ALDS Notes: Glass, Moore, Cueto, Cecil, Andrus, Carter

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Last night’s exciting end to the American League Division Series set up an intriguing matchup between the Royals and the Blue Jays. And it provides us an opportunity to take a look at some notes on the teams that just finished playing in the ALDS:

  • The Royals’ bold trade deadline moves paid off big in the ALDS, writes Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star. “This year, we believed we had a chance to do it, and to do it right and to fix what we didn’t get done last year,” said club owner David Glass. Mid-season trade acquisition Johnny Cueto was masterful last night, of course, while Ben Zobrist has been his steadily excellent self. “It’s difficult to give up the prospects, but … you go for it when you have a chance,” Glass added, explaining that he placed trust in GM Dayton Moore.
  • Glass heaped praise on Moore, explaining that the organization’s leaders always envisioned the creation of a multi-year contention window, as Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. “When we hired Dayton, that was the plan all along,” he said. “We weren’t interested in just getting there one year and not getting back. That required a lot of patience on his part, along with [club president] Dan [Glass], despite the criticism to the contrary from some people in the media. He stood in there and built something that is here to last.”
  • While Kansas City’s window should remain open for some time after this season, as Glass suggested, tough decisions are never far away. There was a slightly wistful moment in Glass’s comments, which came when discussing the need to seize the moment. “One of these days,” he said, “you’ve got some guys on this team we’re not going to be able to afford. That’s sad but true. Hopefully, we’ll keep them together for some period of time, the core group, but that’s real life with small markets.”
  • Speaking of Cueto, his performance over the final games of the year could go some way toward setting up his hard-to-predict upcoming free agent case. His struggles down the stretch for the Royals are well-documented, but going eight strong innings last night — with eight strikeouts and no walks — was exactly the kind of performance that the team and prospective suitors were looking for. Cueto’s overall body of work is unassailable, of course, but he has a chance to tamp down any concerns with the status of his valuable right elbow.
  • Blue Jays lefty Brett Cecil, who tore his left calf just days ago, is going to try his best to return to playoff action, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There’s no chance that he’ll be ready for the next round, so the only way he’d possibly make it back is if Toronto makes it into the World Series.
  • If there was a goat in last night’s action, it was Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, who committed two key errors in the unbelievable seventh inning against Toronto. While that obviously represents a sour end to his season, it should not be forgotten that Andrus did a lot to restore his standing in 2015. The 27-year-old batted a sturdy .277/.320/.398 in the season’s second half while reversing some of the defensive decline that metrics saw last year. That’s hardly world-beating stuff, but it’s critical to Texas that Andrus can at least represent an average option at short given that he’s still owed over $100MM going forward.
  • We already addressed Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus in a bullet this morning, but another Houston player who continued to build his stock is slugger Chris Carter. He ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances. MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration. That’s not cheap — remember, dingers pay — but it’s nothing compared to what power will cost on the open market. After seeming like a non-tender candidate several months back, Carter will once again be an interesting possible trade target to keep an eye on this winter.

Marlins Rumors: Cueto, Leake, Cespedes

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In his Sunday column, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has a number of noteworthy Marlins items.  Here’s a look at some of the highlights..

Cafardo On Cueto, Angels, Red Sox

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe looks at the recent phenomenon of teams installing various layers of upper management.  Lately, teams have taken to employing a president of baseball operations, a GM, and then one or two assistant GMs underneath that person.  In baseball circles, this has become known as “title inflation,” Cafardo writes.  One source says that small market teams don’t like this trend, presumably because the larger market teams are able to pluck execs away with fancier titles that really amount to a lateral move.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • One AL exec told Cafardo that he stayed away from Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline because of a possible elbow issue.  Many believed that Cueto’s elbow didn’t dampen his trade value this summer since he returned to action for the Reds and continued to pitch well, but we know now that it was a turnoff for at least one club.  Since coming over to the Royals, Cueto owns a 4.99 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 across eleven starts, and one can’t help but wonder if the elbow is a factor.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently dropped Cueto to eighth in his 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • Many believe the biggest factor in the Angels’ GM search will be the ability of each candidate to co-exist with manager Mike Scioscia, Cafardo writes. Scioscia, the longtime Halos skipper, has had a fair amount of say in personnel decisions over the years.  Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler has a “good shot” at getting the job, per Cafardo.
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if the Red Sox will allow Torey Lovullo to pursue managerial opportunities this winter.  Lovullo has managed the Red Sox in Farrell’s absence and now has the managerial experience that teams were previously concerned about.
  • Former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire appears ready to get back into managing, Cafardo writes.
  • Jason Varitek, currently serving as a special assistant for the Red Sox, has been mentioned as a managerial candidate.  However, the former catcher’s top priority right now is his family, so it’s not clear if he’d be ready for that kind of grind and commitment.

AL Central Notes: Cueto, Twins, Chisenhall, Indians

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Johnny Cueto’s struggles over the past month with the Royals have been well-documented, but he looked considerably better on Friday (7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), and as Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes, the improved results could have been due to changes made by someone other than Cueto himself. Cueto admitted to manager Ned Yost and catcher Salvador Perez that he had an issue with Perez’s positioning behind he plate, McCullough writes, and they worked out a new gameplan in a closed-door meeting. The exchange was respectful on both sides, and Cueto was a bit hesitant to even suggest the alterations, per Yost. “He understood that Salvy’s a three-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glover,” said Yost. “He’s not going to come in and tell him what to do.” Catching coach Pedro Grifol explained that Perez’s tendency is to set up higher than where the pitch’s ultimate target is, then adjust as the pitcher is delivering. Cueto prefers a lower target that’s set as he begins his delivery, as he likes throwing directly to the glove. There is, of course, only one start’s worth of data to suggest that the changes will yield better results, and this does little to explain how Cueto was initially so successful in Kansas City before beginning to struggle after a handful of starts.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The Twins will pay a small luxury tax (abut $38K) for slightly exceeding their international bonus pool on shortstop Wander Javier’s $4MM bonus, but VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff explains to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune why they’ve shied away from pool-shattering spending sprees that would prevent them from signing players for more than $250K in future periods. The Twins have been content to sign one top-tier talent and then fill in the gaps with smaller signings recently. “Otherwise, you’re forced to evaluate 13-year-olds to judge whether the strategy will pay off,” said Radcliff. “and that’s not going to work.” Radcliff did note that the pool-shattering concept has been discussed internally and called it a “legitimate strategy,” noting that it does have its merits.
  • In his latest reader inbox column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tackles a number of Indians-related topics, including Lonnie Chisenhall’s future and the team’s free agent approach. Hoynes points out that Chisenhall has played astoundingly good defense since his move to right field, potentially putting him in line for everyday at-bats in 2016. While Chisenhall’s defensive work in right comes with the usual small sample caveat — it’s just 278 innings — he’s posted incredible marks of +11 Defensive Runs Saved and a +7.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (translating to an unsustainable but eye-popping UZR/150 of 46.4).
  • As far as free agency is concerned, Hoynes writes that Cleveland has “made it clear” that it will not be a big player in the free agent market. The team is still stinging from its signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and will pursue trades and international signings or try to find another Scott Kazmir “lightning in a bottle” addition rather than spend for top-tier names. Hoynes also notes that the Indians want to give Trevor Bauer another chance to start in spite of his poor second half and downplays his status as a potential trade candidate.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Red Sox, Jepsen

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Though he gutted out a quality start after a tough first inning last night,Yankees southpaw  CC Sabathia is dealing with bone-on-bone arthritis in his right knee, the left-hander told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom last night. Sabathia told Bloom that he’ll eventually need knee replacement surgery, but “that’s the price you pay.” Sabathia has been wearing a brace on his injured knee which he says prevents the ligaments in the joint from rubbing together when he plants to throw a pitch. As such, he’s able to maintain his mechanics.

A few more notes from around the AL to kick off the week…

  • The Red Sox could use an “alpha dog” atop their rotation, writes Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com. Gammons breaks down a number of options for the Sox, including Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda (whom, according to one scout that spoke to Gammons, is “too slight” to pitch every fifth day in the Majors). Gammons outlines the case for and against the Sox reeling in top free agents David Price and Zack Greinke within his column, and he also looks at Johnny Cueto’s struggles since over the past month with the Royals.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that while the trade of Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins doesn’t stand out as one of the more memorable deals from this past deadline, it had a significant impact on the Rays’ clubhouse. There was a feeling in the air that the team had given up by trading one of its top setup men to a team they were chasing in the Wild Card race, Topkin hears from people around the clubhouse, especially considering that the return was a pair of low-level minor leaguers who weren’t going to contribute in 2014.
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