José Quintana Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Rib

The Mets informed reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that left-hander José Quintana has a “small stress fracture” in his fifth rib on his left side. He left his spring outing yesterday with side tightness and later announced that he was withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic. He is leaving camp and headed to New York for further imaging. The club does not have a timeline on his recovery yet.

Quintana, 34, was pencilled in to be a key piece of the Mets’ rotation this year after signing a two-year, $26MM deal in the offseason. He had a rough couple of seasons in 2020 and 2021 but bounced back nicely last year with the Pirates and Cardinals. He tossed 165 2/3 innings between the two clubs with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. The Mets signed him to that two-year pact and hoped to have him in their rotation alongside Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco.

At this point, it’s still unclear what the next steps will be, but it seems like Quintana will at least be delayed. There’s just over three weeks until Opening Day at this point. Even if he’s able to return to the mound in short order, he would still need some time to build up his pitch count.

It was around this time last year that Red Sox lefty Chris Sale was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib, which prevented him from making his season debut until July. That’s not to say Quintana is facing the same absence, as all injuries are unique and players respond to them differently. However, it does illustrate that the diagnosis has the chance to be significant.

We don’t know what kind of absence Quintana ultimately will require, but the Mets have depth options on their roster if Quintana does eventually need to miss some of the regular season. Joey Lucchesi was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2022 and missed all of the MLB season. He began a rehab assignment in August of last year and pitched 12 2/3 minor league innings before the winter arrived. Back in 2019, he made 30 starts for the Padres and posted a 4.18 ERA. Tylor Megill made nine starts and six relief appearances for the club last year, posting a combined 5.13 ERA. David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA across 19 starts and nine relief appearances last year and would perhaps be the first one called up to take a rotation job. He recently had his own injury scare when a comebacker hit him in the foot, though it seems he escaped with just a contusion and is day-to-day. All three of Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson have options, allowing them to be stretched out in the minors whenever their services are not required by the big league club.

NL East Notes: Quintana, Peterson, Kieboom

Mets general manager Billy Eppler told reporters today, including Tim Healey of Newsday Sports (Twitter links), that left-hander José Quintana had his start limited to just one inning today against the Cardinals due to left side tightness. Healey relays that Quintana will no longer participate in the World Baseball Classic and will attempt to be ready for the MLB season.

Long before he joined the Mets, Quintana spent the first several seasons of his career as a reliable middle of the rotation arm in Chicago, first with the White Sox from 2012-2017, then with the Cubs from 2017-2020 following the deal that sent him across town in exchange for Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease. However, Quintana began to struggle toward the end of his time in Chicago: he posted his first below average season by ERA+ in 2019, pitched just 10 innings due to injury in the shortened 2020 season, and had a disastrous 2021 season split between the Giants and the Angels where he pitched to a 6.43 ERA (69 ERA+) in 63 innings of work.

Quintana managed to turn things around in 2022, however: he pitched to a strong 3.50 ERA in 103 innings as a member of the Pirates before being dealt to the Cardinals at the trade deadline last year, where he went on to dominate, posting a sensational 2.01 ERA (191 ERA+) over 62 2/3 innings down the stretch. His overall season line of a 2.93 ERA (137 ERA+) and 2.99 FIP earned him a two-year, $26MM contract with the Mets this winter. At this point, the severity of the injury is unknown, but the fact that he’s dropped out of the WBC and isn’t certain about being ready for the start of the regular season gives a vague timeframe. Whenever he’s healthy, the Mets figure to have Quintana rounding out their rotation alongside Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco behind co-aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

More from around the NL East…

  • While Mets fans may be concerned by the news regarding Quintana, they should be encouraged to hear that fellow his left-hander David Peterson is considered day-to-day with a foot contusion after the results of yesterday’s x-ray and today’s CT scan. Peterson had been struck by a batted ball, leaving reason for concern that a more serious injury could have been in play. Fortunately, that does not appear to be the case, and Peterson should slot in right alongside Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi among the next men up should Quintana, or any other Mets starter, need to miss any time.
  • Nationals third baseman Carter Kieboom is working his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery but is facing a setback. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters, including Andrew Golden of The Washington Post, that Kieboom is dealing with some right shoulder discomfort. The youngster recently appeared in a game as the designated hitter but has yet to take the field. As noted by Golden, Kieboom has been employing a routine of not throwing every day. This new issue will likely lead to even less throwing in the days to come, but Kieboom doesn’t seem overly concerned. “The last thing I want to do … is have something like this bother me, and then you start kind of tweaking your own mechanics and start compensating for things,” Kieboom said. “That’s what gets you in trouble again. … It’s important to take care of now; that way, it’s a one-to-three-day thing versus a two-to-three-week thing.” Once one of the top prospects in the league, he’s struggled in his major league time so far. He’ll be looking to regain some of his previous pedigree later this year, but getting healthy will be the first step.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Mets Sign José Quintana To Two-Year Deal

December 9: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

December 7: The Mets and left-hander José Quintana are in agreement on a two-year, $26MM contract, pending a physical. He will make even salaries of $13MM in each season.

Quintana, 34 in January, was a remarkably steady and consistent member of the White Sox rotation in his first five seasons. He debuted in 2012 with 22 starts, three relief appearances and a 3.76 ERA. For the next four seasons, he made at least 32 starts in each campaign while keeping his ERA between 3.51 and 3.20.

Unfortunately, he hit a few rough patches after that, as his ERA ticked up over 4.00 for three straight campaigns from 2017 to 2019, with Quintana getting traded across town to the Cubs in that time. A thumb injury in 2020 limited him to just 10 innings pitched in the shortened campaign. He signed with the Angels for 2021 but was shelled in nine starts to begin the year and got moved to the bullpen.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsFor 2022, the rebuilding Pirates took a flier on Quintana with a one-year, $2MM deal. The hope was that he would return to form, provide some veteran stability for their young rotation and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip by the deadline. That plan could hardly have gone much better, as the southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.

Quintana was then able to return to free agency in a much stronger position than his previous trips. In addition to his strong platform season, his midseason trade made him ineligible for a qualifying offer and his age made it unlikely that he would be able to pursue a lengthy contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM deal, with Quintana eventually nudging just barely beyond that.

For the Mets, they were facing a great deal of turnover on their pitching staff, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker reaching free agency, along with several relievers. deGrom has since joined the Rangers and Walker the Phillies. The Mets effectively replaced deGrom by signing Verlander and have now added Quintana to take a role in the middle or back of the rotation. That gives the Mets a front four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Quintana. They have some internal options to take the fifth spot, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, but it’s also possible that they continue to pursue external additions.

This signing brings the club’s payroll to $290MM for next year, according to Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $301MM. It’s unclear exactly how much they plan on spending by the time the dust has settled, but owner Steve Cohen has previously floated $300MM as a ballpark figure, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. In terms of the luxury tax, they are already beyond the fourth and highest tier of penalization, which will be $293MM next year. As a second-time payor, they are subject to escalating penalties, meaning they will pay a 30% tax on the spending between $233-253MM, 42% between $253-273MM, 75% between $273-293MM and 90% above the top tier.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Quintana would join the Mets at $26MM over two years. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added that it would break down into even salaries of $13MM in each year.

Cardinals Interested In José Quintana Reunion

The Cardinals acquired left-hander José Quintana at the deadline and were evidently pleased with their brief relationship with him. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of The New York Post mention that the Cardinals are interested in bringing Quintana back, though Heyman notes that they have competition for his services.

Quintana, 34 in January, endured a rough two-year stretch in 2020 and 2021. A thumb injury limited him to 10 innings in the former and his ERA ballooned up to 6.43 in the latter. The Pirates took a flier on him in 2022 with a $2MM deal to act as a stabilizing veteran force in their rotation of inexperienced youngsters. That plan went about as well as could have been hoped, with Quintana bouncing back and turning himself into a deadline trade chip, going to the Cardinals alongside Chris Stratton for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez.

MLBTR’s Simon Hampton recently took a thorough look at Quintana’s season, which finished with a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings. Quintana’s 20.2% strikeout rate was a couple of ticks below league average, but his 46.4% ground ball rate was strong. The Cardinals are known for their defensive prowess and Quintana’s grounder-heavy approach worked better after the uniform switch, as he had a 3.50 ERA as a Pirate and 2.01 as a Cardinal.

Though it was just 12 starts, Quintana and the Cards seemed to be a good match for each other. It makes sense that there would be some mutual interest in a reunion, though the roster fit in St. Louis would be imperfect at the moment. The club already has a number of rotation candidates, including Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson, as well as prospects like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.

Hudson had a poor year in 2022 and could be best utilized as a long man in the bullpen who could jump into the rotation in case of an injury. However, it would be harder to justify bumping any of the other five. Wainwright, Mikolas and Montgomery are all coming off solid seasons and seem to have jobs locked down. Matz had an injury marred season in 2022 but he still has three years and $34MM remaining on the four-year deal he signed with them a year ago. Given their investment, they will surely give him a chance to bounce back with better health going forward. Flaherty has been dealing with injuries over the past three seasons but pitched like an ace when he was last healthy in 2019.

As Rosenthal notes, four of these pitchers are free agents at the end of 2023: Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty. As of right now, the 2024 rotation would be Hudson and Matz, with three openings available for prospects to potentially fill. Perhaps that means they would consider signing a starter to help them now and next year, though that would likely mean they have to find a trading partner for one of those other four to create space in the short term.

Even though Quintana’s entering his age-34 season, his bounceback was solid enough that MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM contract for him. He’s part of a large group of mid-rotation candidates available in free agency this winter, including Ross Stripling, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon and others. The market seems to be strong so far, as Tyler Anderson secured a three-year, $39MM deal despite having a qualifying offer attached and Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays, easily beating our two-year, $22MM prediction. Mike Clevinger got one year and $12MM, just ahead of our $10MM prediction, and Matthew Boyd got $10MM despite not even cracking our top 50. Though the Cardinals clearly like Quintana, the fit is a little awkward and they’re surely not the only team calling him up. The Pirates also reportedly have interest in a reunion and there’s no shortage of sensible fits beyond that. The Cards’ payroll is currently around $154MM, per Roster Resource. That’s almost even with last year’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated payroll will be going up this year.

Pirates Have Had Discussions With Kyle Gibson

The Pirates recently had a video chat with free agent starter Kyle Gibson, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic. According to Biertempfel, the Bucs have ongoing interest in the veteran right-hander.

Gibson, 35, just wrapped up his first full season in Philadelphia. He originally landed with the Phillies at the 2021 trade deadline, dealt midway through a three-year free agent deal signed with the Rangers. While he was sitting on a 2.87 ERA through his first 19 starts of the 2021 campaign in Texas, Gibson posted an ERA north of 5.00 through his season and a half in Philly. Through 43 appearances (42 starts), he pitched to a 5.06 ERA across 236 2/3 frames.

That’s not a particularly impressive run prevention mark, but the 2021 All-Star has had more effective underlying numbers. His 20.3% strikeout rate over the past year-plus is a bit below average, although that’s offset by a quality 7% walk percentage. As he has throughout his career, the sinkerballer induced grounders at a quality 48% clip in Philadelphia. That lower-strikeout, high-grounder approach wasn’t necessarily an ideal fit in front of a below-average infield defense. Opposing hitters had a .243 batting average on ground balls against Gibson this past season, slightly above the .235 league mark. He also had one of the league’s lowest left-on-base rates at 67.7%. For his career, Gibson has stranded just under 71% of baserunners he’s allowed. A few more grounders finding gloves and timely outs could lead the 10-year veteran to an ERA closer to the low-4.00’s range, where defense-adjusted estimators like FIP and SIERA have pegged his recent production.

Pittsburgh was one of the league’s better teams at turning grounders into outs this past season. Ke’Bryan Hayes is an elite defensive third basemen, although shortstop Oneil Cruz drew mixed reviews from public metrics for his rookie season. The Bucs have acquired a trio of capable defenders at first base this offseason — free agent signee Carlos Santana, trade acquisition Ji-Man Choi and waiver claim Lewin Díaz — while their second base job still seems largely up for grabs.

The Pirates have a young rotation with potentially multiple vacancies to plug. As things stand, Mitch KellerJT Brubaker and Roansy Contreras look to have the inside track at rotation spots. Keller and Brubaker, each of whom are entering their first seasons of arbitration eligibility, could find themselves in trade rumors this winter. Even if they return, the final two spots are up in the air. Neither Bryse Wilson nor Zach Thompson pitched particularly well in their 20+ starts this past season. Johan Oviedo, who came over from the Cardinals midseason in the José Quintana and Chris Stratton trade, had a solid seven starts to put himself in the mix. The 24-year-old has been inconsistent as a strike-thrower, though, and he was primarily deployed out of the bullpen in St. Louis. Luis OrtizMiguel Yajure and Mike Burrows are depth options already on the 40-man roster, and top prospect Quinn Priester could pitch his way into the mix midseason after a strong year at Double-A.

It seems likely the Bucs will add at least one veteran arm, both to eat innings and add some experience for a generally young group of hurlers. Last year, they inked Quintana to a $2MM bounceback deal. He provided them with 20 starts of 3.50 ERA ball before the midseason trade that brought back Oviedo and minor league first baseman Malcom Nuñez. Quintana’s again a free agent, and Biertempfel reports the Pirates are interested in bringing him back to the Steel City. Quintana will certainly land a far better contract this time around — MLBTR predicts him for a two-year, $24MM deal — and it remains to be seen if the Pirates are willing to meet a loftier asking price. Gibson doesn’t figure to be quite so expensive, although he should fairly easily beat the $2MM guarantee Quintana received last offseason.

The additions of Santana and Choi added roughly $11MM in projected spending to the 2023 ledger. Nevertheless, the Bucs still have just over $54MM in estimated commitments, per Roster Resource. Even a modest hike from this year’s approximate $56MM Opening Day payroll should allow them to continue building out the roster with lower-cost veteran additions.

Pittsburgh is certain to bring in at least one experienced catcher, and general manager Ben Cherington has previously expressed an openness to adding in the middle infield. Biertempfel writes the Pirates are similarly willing to supplement the outfield. It’s hard to envision the Bucs making a huge splash in any of those areas, but they figure to explore the lower tiers of various areas of the market to continue shoring up the weakest points on a roster coming off a 62-100 campaign.

Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency

When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.

Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.

It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.

Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.

So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.

To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)

With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.

Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.

This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.

Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.

Cardinals Acquire Jose Quintana, Chris Stratton From Pirates

The Cardinals added a needed arm to the rotation and picked up a veteran reliever Monday evening, announcing an intra-division trade that will net them lefty Jose Quintana and righty Chris Stratton from the Pirates. In return, the Pirates are receiving righty Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcolm Nunez.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Quintana was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s an impending free agent on a Pittsburgh club with no chance of reaching the postseason in 2022. The Bucs were certain to move him for some players who could help beyond this season, and as a rental player, there’s no reason for Pittsburgh to be concerned about moving him to a division rival.

The Cards have kicked around the market for higher-impact arms, with former Oakland ace Frankie Montas reportedly a primary target. Once the A’s dealt Montas to the Yankees, it seems the Cards pivoted to a lower-cost veteran stabilizer for the back of the starting staff. Quintana is no longer the mid-rotation arm he was at his peak, the kind of pitcher a club would target to start a playoff game. Yet he’s had a decent bounceback season in Pittsburgh after struggling in 2021.

Quintana has made 20 starts for the Pirates, working to a 3.50 ERA. He’s only averaged a hair above five innings per outing, tallying 103 frames on the season. The sheltered role — in which Pittsburgh has limited his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a start — has aided the veteran southpaw, but his production has been good on a rate basis. Quintana’s 20.6% strikeout rate is a bit below average, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a solid 11.2% of his offerings. He’s also generated grounders on a slightly above-average 45% of batted balls — a trait that has been of appeal of the Cards front office in light of the team’s strong infield defense — and he’s only walked 7.2% of opponents.

Adding Quintana addresses a rotation that has been hit with a couple notable injuries in recent weeks. Jack Flaherty is shelved once again after battling renewed shoulder concerns, though the Cards hope he can return late this month. Offseason signee Steven Matz, meanwhile, tore the MCL in his left knee and could miss the remainder of the season. While he’s not officially been ruled out for the year, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that it’d be “very, very difficult” to get him back onto a mound in 2022.

The Cardinals add Quintana to a rotation that also includes Adam WainwrightDakota HudsonMiles Mikolas and rookie Andre Pallante. The Cards have top prospect Matthew Liberatore as a depth option, but he’s bounced on and off the active roster throughout the year. Pallante, meanwhile, has spent a good chunk of the season in the bullpen and could be on an innings limit. Even with a hopeful late-season return from Flaherty, the Cardinals could still look into another rotation pickup in addition to Quintana.

Chris Stratton | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Stratton, meanwhile, gives the Cards a veteran reliever who’s worked in a leverage role with the Pirates for the past few seasons. He’s sitting on an ugly 5.09 ERA in 2022 but was a rock-solid member of the bullpen in 2020-21.

This year’s struggles have come in large part due to a bloated .365 average on balls in play against Stratton, who’s actually sporting a career-low 7.2% walk rate so far. The former first-round pick has seen his strikeout rate dip from last season’s 25.5% to 20.4% in 2022, but his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last year’s mark and his 37.3% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate is a career-best (and well north of the league average). He’s also a perennial spin-rate darling, and 2022 is no exception. Stratton leads all of Major League Baseball in fastball spin rate this season, and the spin rate on his curveball clocks into the 99th percentile.

All in all, Stratton looks like a nice rebound candidate, particularly once he moves from a Pirates club that ranks 24th in the Majors with -12 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) to a Cardinals club that ranks third with a collective +19 mark in that same category. As a bonus, Stratton will remain under team control into the 2023 season via arbitration.

It’s an affordable gambit for the Cardinals, as the 33-year-old Quintana is guaranteed just $2MM this season and Stratton is earning a similar $2.7MM salary. The final few months of those salaries won’t make much of an impact on St. Louis’ payroll outlook for the remainder of the year.

Turning to the Pirates’ end of the swap, they’ll add an immediate big league option for their staff in the 24-year-old Oviedo, who has logged MLB time with the Cardinals in each of the past three seasons. The 2022 campaign is the first that he’s enjoyed above-average results, but he’s been quite impressive in a bullpen role this season after struggling as a starter in 2020-21. Through 25 1/3 innings, Oviedo owns a 3.20 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, a very strong 6.5% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate.

Oviedo is averaging a career-best 95.6 mph on his heater this season after moving into a multi-inning relief role, and he’s sporting career-best swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (13.3% and 33.9%, respectively). The Pirates could entertain the idea of moving him back into a starting role, but Oviedo has been hit hard as a starter both in Triple-A and in the Majors to this point in his career. The move to the bullpen may well be the best role for him going forward, and if that’s the case he can be a member of the Pittsburgh bullpen for years to come. Oviedo will finish the season with under two years of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled five years beyond the current season.

Nunez, 21, was the Cardinals’ No. 13 prospect on Baseball America’s midseason update of their prospect rankings. He’s in his second stint at the Double-A level and enjoying a much more productive go of it this time around, hitting .255/.360/.463 with 17 big flies in that pitcher-friendly setting. Nunez has walked at a hearty 13.7% clip and is striking out at a manageable 20.3% rate.

Scouting reports on Nunez give him little chance of sticking at third base, but the Cardinals have emphasized improving his defense in recent years and continue to play him at the hot corner. Nunez draws praise for above-average to plus power and a potentially above-average hit tool. A move to first base or even designated hitter might be in his future, but he adds an intriguing bat to the Pirates’ system — one who could soon be ready for the Triple-A level.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Cardinals were finalizing a Quintana deal (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke the news that Stratton was also headed to St. Louis (on Twitter). Francys Romero reported the Pirates’ return (Twitter link).

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Mahle, Drury, Quintana, Blue Jays, Sosa

The Cardinalssearch for starting pitching has taken them inside their division, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that St. Louis is one of the many clubs interested in Reds righty Tyler Mahle.  With the Cards looking at all options for rotation help, it only makes sense that they’d be at least checking in on Mahle’s services.

The Phillies, Twins, and Mets are among the clubs linked to Mahle since the start of the season, while the Rangers also reportedly had interest during the offseason.  With Luis Castillo already off the board, it’s fair to guess that most pitching-needy teams have spoken to the Reds about Mahle, and on paper the Cardinals have the kind of young talent that the Reds would surely demand.  However, it is possible Cincinnati might want a higher price for moving Mahle to a division rival — as Morosi notes, the Reds and Cardinals haven’t completed a player-for-player trade since 1997, so it would count as a surprise on some level if Mahle ended up in St. Louis.

More notes from around the NL Central…

  • Just because Castillo has been traded doesn’t mean the Reds are necessarily likelier to hang onto Mahle, since CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson hears that Mahle and Brandon Drury are expected to both be on new teams after the deadline.  Drury is a free agent after the season and thus an obvious trade chip, though Mahle is still under team control through 2023.  But, it now seems like Cincinnati is going to dive into something close to a full rebuild, a process that really started over the winter when they moved several other veteran talents.
  • The Blue Jays are in the mix for Pirates starter Jose Quintana, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, along with such previously-reported suitors as the Yankees and White Sox.  The veteran left-hander is having a bounce-back season after struggling in 2019-21, and Quintana could help bolster an inconsistent Toronto rotation.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington previously worked in the Jays’ front office, so this familiarity with the AL East side’s prospects could help the Blue Jays in the bidding, though the two sides haven’t completed a player-for-player trade in the two-plus years since Cherington went to Pittsburgh.
  • The Yankees were one of the other teams interested in Edmundo Sosa before the Cardinals dealt Sosa to the Phillies, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Sosa would’ve been an interesting depth add to the Yankees’ infield, and it is even possible that Sosa could have worked his way into a timeshare with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

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