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Jose Quintana

Pirates Have Had Discussions With Kyle Gibson

By Anthony Franco | November 28, 2022 at 5:06pm CDT

The Pirates recently had a video chat with free agent starter Kyle Gibson, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic. According to Biertempfel, the Bucs have ongoing interest in the veteran right-hander.

Gibson, 35, just wrapped up his first full season in Philadelphia. He originally landed with the Phillies at the 2021 trade deadline, dealt midway through a three-year free agent deal signed with the Rangers. While he was sitting on a 2.87 ERA through his first 19 starts of the 2021 campaign in Texas, Gibson posted an ERA north of 5.00 through his season and a half in Philly. Through 43 appearances (42 starts), he pitched to a 5.06 ERA across 236 2/3 frames.

That’s not a particularly impressive run prevention mark, but the 2021 All-Star has had more effective underlying numbers. His 20.3% strikeout rate over the past year-plus is a bit below average, although that’s offset by a quality 7% walk percentage. As he has throughout his career, the sinkerballer induced grounders at a quality 48% clip in Philadelphia. That lower-strikeout, high-grounder approach wasn’t necessarily an ideal fit in front of a below-average infield defense. Opposing hitters had a .243 batting average on ground balls against Gibson this past season, slightly above the .235 league mark. He also had one of the league’s lowest left-on-base rates at 67.7%. For his career, Gibson has stranded just under 71% of baserunners he’s allowed. A few more grounders finding gloves and timely outs could lead the 10-year veteran to an ERA closer to the low-4.00’s range, where defense-adjusted estimators like FIP and SIERA have pegged his recent production.

Pittsburgh was one of the league’s better teams at turning grounders into outs this past season. Ke’Bryan Hayes is an elite defensive third basemen, although shortstop Oneil Cruz drew mixed reviews from public metrics for his rookie season. The Bucs have acquired a trio of capable defenders at first base this offseason — free agent signee Carlos Santana, trade acquisition Ji-Man Choi and waiver claim Lewin Díaz — while their second base job still seems largely up for grabs.

The Pirates have a young rotation with potentially multiple vacancies to plug. As things stand, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Roansy Contreras look to have the inside track at rotation spots. Keller and Brubaker, each of whom are entering their first seasons of arbitration eligibility, could find themselves in trade rumors this winter. Even if they return, the final two spots are up in the air. Neither Bryse Wilson nor Zach Thompson pitched particularly well in their 20+ starts this past season. Johan Oviedo, who came over from the Cardinals midseason in the José Quintana and Chris Stratton trade, had a solid seven starts to put himself in the mix. The 24-year-old has been inconsistent as a strike-thrower, though, and he was primarily deployed out of the bullpen in St. Louis. Luis Ortiz, Miguel Yajure and Mike Burrows are depth options already on the 40-man roster, and top prospect Quinn Priester could pitch his way into the mix midseason after a strong year at Double-A.

It seems likely the Bucs will add at least one veteran arm, both to eat innings and add some experience for a generally young group of hurlers. Last year, they inked Quintana to a $2MM bounceback deal. He provided them with 20 starts of 3.50 ERA ball before the midseason trade that brought back Oviedo and minor league first baseman Malcom Nuñez. Quintana’s again a free agent, and Biertempfel reports the Pirates are interested in bringing him back to the Steel City. Quintana will certainly land a far better contract this time around — MLBTR predicts him for a two-year, $24MM deal — and it remains to be seen if the Pirates are willing to meet a loftier asking price. Gibson doesn’t figure to be quite so expensive, although he should fairly easily beat the $2MM guarantee Quintana received last offseason.

The additions of Santana and Choi added roughly $11MM in projected spending to the 2023 ledger. Nevertheless, the Bucs still have just over $54MM in estimated commitments, per Roster Resource. Even a modest hike from this year’s approximate $56MM Opening Day payroll should allow them to continue building out the roster with lower-cost veteran additions.

Pittsburgh is certain to bring in at least one experienced catcher, and general manager Ben Cherington has previously expressed an openness to adding in the middle infield. Biertempfel writes the Pirates are similarly willing to supplement the outfield. It’s hard to envision the Bucs making a huge splash in any of those areas, but they figure to explore the lower tiers of various areas of the market to continue shoring up the weakest points on a roster coming off a 62-100 campaign.

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Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 2:25pm CDT

When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.

Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.

It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.

Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.

So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.

To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)

With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.

Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.

This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.

Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.

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Cardinals Acquire Jose Quintana, Chris Stratton From Pirates

By Anthony Franco and Steve Adams | August 1, 2022 at 10:11pm CDT

The Cardinals added a needed arm to the rotation and picked up a veteran reliever Monday evening, announcing an intra-division trade that will net them lefty Jose Quintana and righty Chris Stratton from the Pirates. In return, the Pirates are receiving righty Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcolm Nunez.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Quintana was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s an impending free agent on a Pittsburgh club with no chance of reaching the postseason in 2022. The Bucs were certain to move him for some players who could help beyond this season, and as a rental player, there’s no reason for Pittsburgh to be concerned about moving him to a division rival.

The Cards have kicked around the market for higher-impact arms, with former Oakland ace Frankie Montas reportedly a primary target. Once the A’s dealt Montas to the Yankees, it seems the Cards pivoted to a lower-cost veteran stabilizer for the back of the starting staff. Quintana is no longer the mid-rotation arm he was at his peak, the kind of pitcher a club would target to start a playoff game. Yet he’s had a decent bounceback season in Pittsburgh after struggling in 2021.

Quintana has made 20 starts for the Pirates, working to a 3.50 ERA. He’s only averaged a hair above five innings per outing, tallying 103 frames on the season. The sheltered role — in which Pittsburgh has limited his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a start — has aided the veteran southpaw, but his production has been good on a rate basis. Quintana’s 20.6% strikeout rate is a bit below average, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a solid 11.2% of his offerings. He’s also generated grounders on a slightly above-average 45% of batted balls — a trait that has been of appeal of the Cards front office in light of the team’s strong infield defense — and he’s only walked 7.2% of opponents.

Adding Quintana addresses a rotation that has been hit with a couple notable injuries in recent weeks. Jack Flaherty is shelved once again after battling renewed shoulder concerns, though the Cards hope he can return late this month. Offseason signee Steven Matz, meanwhile, tore the MCL in his left knee and could miss the remainder of the season. While he’s not officially been ruled out for the year, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that it’d be “very, very difficult” to get him back onto a mound in 2022.

The Cardinals add Quintana to a rotation that also includes Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and rookie Andre Pallante. The Cards have top prospect Matthew Liberatore as a depth option, but he’s bounced on and off the active roster throughout the year. Pallante, meanwhile, has spent a good chunk of the season in the bullpen and could be on an innings limit. Even with a hopeful late-season return from Flaherty, the Cardinals could still look into another rotation pickup in addition to Quintana.

Chris Stratton | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Stratton, meanwhile, gives the Cards a veteran reliever who’s worked in a leverage role with the Pirates for the past few seasons. He’s sitting on an ugly 5.09 ERA in 2022 but was a rock-solid member of the bullpen in 2020-21.

This year’s struggles have come in large part due to a bloated .365 average on balls in play against Stratton, who’s actually sporting a career-low 7.2% walk rate so far. The former first-round pick has seen his strikeout rate dip from last season’s 25.5% to 20.4% in 2022, but his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last year’s mark and his 37.3% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate is a career-best (and well north of the league average). He’s also a perennial spin-rate darling, and 2022 is no exception. Stratton leads all of Major League Baseball in fastball spin rate this season, and the spin rate on his curveball clocks into the 99th percentile.

All in all, Stratton looks like a nice rebound candidate, particularly once he moves from a Pirates club that ranks 24th in the Majors with -12 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) to a Cardinals club that ranks third with a collective +19 mark in that same category. As a bonus, Stratton will remain under team control into the 2023 season via arbitration.

It’s an affordable gambit for the Cardinals, as the 33-year-old Quintana is guaranteed just $2MM this season and Stratton is earning a similar $2.7MM salary. The final few months of those salaries won’t make much of an impact on St. Louis’ payroll outlook for the remainder of the year.

Turning to the Pirates’ end of the swap, they’ll add an immediate big league option for their staff in the 24-year-old Oviedo, who has logged MLB time with the Cardinals in each of the past three seasons. The 2022 campaign is the first that he’s enjoyed above-average results, but he’s been quite impressive in a bullpen role this season after struggling as a starter in 2020-21. Through 25 1/3 innings, Oviedo owns a 3.20 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, a very strong 6.5% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate.

Oviedo is averaging a career-best 95.6 mph on his heater this season after moving into a multi-inning relief role, and he’s sporting career-best swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (13.3% and 33.9%, respectively). The Pirates could entertain the idea of moving him back into a starting role, but Oviedo has been hit hard as a starter both in Triple-A and in the Majors to this point in his career. The move to the bullpen may well be the best role for him going forward, and if that’s the case he can be a member of the Pittsburgh bullpen for years to come. Oviedo will finish the season with under two years of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled five years beyond the current season.

Nunez, 21, was the Cardinals’ No. 13 prospect on Baseball America’s midseason update of their prospect rankings. He’s in his second stint at the Double-A level and enjoying a much more productive go of it this time around, hitting .255/.360/.463 with 17 big flies in that pitcher-friendly setting. Nunez has walked at a hearty 13.7% clip and is striking out at a manageable 20.3% rate.

Scouting reports on Nunez give him little chance of sticking at third base, but the Cardinals have emphasized improving his defense in recent years and continue to play him at the hot corner. Nunez draws praise for above-average to plus power and a potentially above-average hit tool. A move to first base or even designated hitter might be in his future, but he adds an intriguing bat to the Pirates’ system — one who could soon be ready for the Triple-A level.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Cardinals were finalizing a Quintana deal (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke the news that Stratton was also headed to St. Louis (on Twitter). Francys Romero reported the Pirates’ return (Twitter link).

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NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Mahle, Drury, Quintana, Blue Jays, Sosa

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2022 at 2:53pm CDT

The Cardinals’ search for starting pitching has taken them inside their division, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that St. Louis is one of the many clubs interested in Reds righty Tyler Mahle.  With the Cards looking at all options for rotation help, it only makes sense that they’d be at least checking in on Mahle’s services.

The Phillies, Twins, and Mets are among the clubs linked to Mahle since the start of the season, while the Rangers also reportedly had interest during the offseason.  With Luis Castillo already off the board, it’s fair to guess that most pitching-needy teams have spoken to the Reds about Mahle, and on paper the Cardinals have the kind of young talent that the Reds would surely demand.  However, it is possible Cincinnati might want a higher price for moving Mahle to a division rival — as Morosi notes, the Reds and Cardinals haven’t completed a player-for-player trade since 1997, so it would count as a surprise on some level if Mahle ended up in St. Louis.

More notes from around the NL Central…

  • Just because Castillo has been traded doesn’t mean the Reds are necessarily likelier to hang onto Mahle, since CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson hears that Mahle and Brandon Drury are expected to both be on new teams after the deadline.  Drury is a free agent after the season and thus an obvious trade chip, though Mahle is still under team control through 2023.  But, it now seems like Cincinnati is going to dive into something close to a full rebuild, a process that really started over the winter when they moved several other veteran talents.
  • The Blue Jays are in the mix for Pirates starter Jose Quintana, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, along with such previously-reported suitors as the Yankees and White Sox.  The veteran left-hander is having a bounce-back season after struggling in 2019-21, and Quintana could help bolster an inconsistent Toronto rotation.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington previously worked in the Jays’ front office, so this familiarity with the AL East side’s prospects could help the Blue Jays in the bidding, though the two sides haven’t completed a player-for-player trade in the two-plus years since Cherington went to Pittsburgh.
  • The Yankees were one of the other teams interested in Edmundo Sosa before the Cardinals dealt Sosa to the Phillies, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Sosa would’ve been an interesting depth add to the Yankees’ infield, and it is even possible that Sosa could have worked his way into a timeshare with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop.
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Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2022 at 1:44pm CDT

The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

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White Sox, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Jose Quintana

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2022 at 11:12pm CDT

The White Sox and Yankees are among the clubs expressing interest in Pirates starter José Quintana, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The veteran southpaw is almost certain to change teams as a fairly productive impending free agent on the fourth-place Bucs.

Chicago is plenty familiar with Quintana, of course. The Colombian-born hurler began his big league career with the South Siders and spent essentially all of his prime seasons there. One of the sport’s best pitchers at his peak, Quintana worked 200+ innings with an ERA of 3.51 or lower each season from 2013-16. The Sox flipped him across town in a 2017 blockbuster that netted them Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez from the Cubs.

Since leaving the White Sox, Quintana has posted more up-and-down production. He’s generally looked like a competent but unexciting back-of-the-rotation arm, excepting last season when he spent a good chunk of the year in the bullpen. Quintana has returned to the rotation full-time since signing with Pittsburgh, taking 19 turns and working 97 1/3 innings. At just a bit more than five frames per start, the 33-year-old has had a relatively sheltered workload. The Pirates have allowed him to face a batter for the third time in an outing on just 68 occasions all season.

While Quintana hasn’t been counted on as a prototypical innings eater, he’s been generally effective on a rate basis. He owns a 3.70 ERA, his lowest mark since his final full season with the White Sox. Quintana has a modest 20.7% strikeout rate, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a slightly above-average 11.1% of his pitches. After an uncharacteristic spike in walks last season, he’s again demonstrating his more typical strong control (7.1% walk percentage).

Quintana won’t be the most exciting player on the move this summer, but there’s value for contenders in stability at the back of the rotation. The White Sox have gotten ace-level production from Cease, and minor league signee Johnny Cueto has provided an invaluable 2.72 ERA through 12 starts. However, the Sox have gotten underwhelming work from Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. Hard-throwing righty Michael Kopech has shown well in moving from the bullpen to the rotation, but his 83 innings are already past last year’s 69 1/3 frames. Pitching coach Ethan Katz pushed back against the idea that Kopech will be on any sort of innings limit this evening (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Nevertheless, there’s room for another arm capable of reducing some of the pressure on Kopech, particularly with Vince Velasquez on the injured list due to blister trouble.

The Yankees are also familiar with Quintana, although he’s never suited up for them in the major leagues. He spent three years in their minor league system before making his MLB debut, departing as a minor league free agent after the 2011 campaign. Of course, the far more relevant concern for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff would be to fortify the depth of a rotation that recently lost Luis Severino to a lat strain. The Yankees rotation has been very good overall but middle-of-the-pack over the past month, with Jameson Taillon particularly struggling of late. As with the White Sox, New York probably wouldn’t look to Quintana to supplant anyone in their top five, but rather as a swing option who can add some stability behind that group.

Quintana should have a fairly broad range of appeal to pitching-needy clubs, as he’s affordable. He’s playing this season on just a $2MM base salary, around $800K of which remains owed. That’s a marginal sum, no doubt intriguing with the White Sox and Yankees each looking to bolster rosters that are already running franchise-record payrolls.

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The Market For Rental Starters Is On Shaky Ground

By Darragh McDonald | July 20, 2022 at 4:25pm CDT

The starting pitchers that have received, and surely will continue to receive, the most attention in trade rumors are Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. It’s not surprising, given that they’re all quality pitchers, have been in rumors for a long time and are currently playing for obvious sellers. They also each come with an extra year of control, making them doubly enticing. Why add an exciting new pitcher for just one postseason push when you can do it for two? MLBTR recently ranked the trade candidates and placed them #4, 5 and 6, respectively.

However, with upwards of a dozen teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs in the coming weeks, not all of them will succeed in grabbing one of that trio. In fact, with their extra control, there’s no guarantee any of them will be traded. Montas and Mahle are both dealing with minor injuries right now, and though both are expected to be well enough to pitch before the deadline, there’s always the possibility of the injury getting worse and scuttling trade hopes. Regardless, some teams are going to have to look farther down the list of trade candidates, which is where things get murky.

The top 50 list linked above featured six starters who are set to reach free agency at the end of the year: José Quintana at #7, Martín Pérez at #12, Chad Kuhl at #17, Jordan Lyles at #18, Noah Syndergaard at #21 and Mike Clevinger at #38. (Lyles isn’t a rental in the strictest sense, as he has an $11MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. But since the odds seem to be against that getting picked up, I’ve included him here.) That makes them a little less desired on the market, but also means the acquisition cost should be lower. Although that list was published less than two weeks ago, the sand has already started to shift a bit under this market, and could potentially do so again in the weeks to come.

Quintana was having an excellent start to his season but has slipped recently. When he landed that #7 spot on the list a couple of weeks ago, he had a 3.33 ERA. However, he’s had two miserable starts since then, allowing four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on July 1o, followed by six earned runs in five innings on July 15. His ERA has jumped up to 3.99 just from those two outings. Teams aren’t likely to radically alter their evaluation of a pitcher based on just two starts, especially with the latter taking place in Coors Field. But then again, Quintana’s strong first half was also a small sample, coming after a few years of ineffective work. He had a 4.68 ERA in 2019, then was limited to just ten innings in 2020 due to injury. Last year, he worked mostly as a reliever and put up a 6.43 ERA. He’s made 18 starts this year and two bad ones won’t completely undo the rest, but how much will a team value those 16 decent ones after years of mediocrity? Were those last two starts flukes or regression to the mean?

Pérez is in a similar boat, as he was out-pitching his track record in the early going but has come back down to earth of late. At the end of his start on June 5th, he had a 1.56 ERA but has a 4.54 since. He still has an excellent 2.68 mark on the season overall based on that strong start, but the recent rough patch raises questions. After eight straight seasons with an ERA between 4.38 and 6.22, has he suddenly turned a corner at the age of 31? Or was it a mirage that’s now fading from view? Either way, there’s also the extra complication that the Rangers might just hang onto Pérez and extend him.

Kuhl’s situation has some parallels as well, as he had a 3.17 ERA through his June 3 start but a 5.45 over his last seven outings. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Rockies seem to be leaning towards doing their thing that they do, holding onto obvious trade candidates and hoping to work out extensions. Last year, they didn’t trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray or C.J. Cron, despite all three heading towards free agency. They recouped a draft pick when Story rejected the qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, extended Cron but came up short in trying to hang onto Gray. This year, it seems like Kuhl might be this year’s Cron, as he’s apparently comfortable in Colorado and willing to stay beyond this season. Any team that wanted to acquire him would probably have to blow away the Rockies with an overpay.

As for Lyles, his situation has changed not so much because of his performance, but the rest of the team. When that list was published, the Orioles were 41-44. They were on a six-game win streak, but that seemed to be a flash in the pan of what would surely go down as another miserable season in Baltimore. Well, that six-game win streak eventually turned in a ten-gamer, and the O’s are now 46-46, just 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Does that make them change their deadline approach? Perhaps, perhaps not. The odds of a postseason berth are still low, with FanGraphs giving them a 1.4% chance. But with excited fans turning out to Camden Yards for the first time in years, would the club still pull the plug on deadline selling? Lyles was just signed this offseason and isn’t a fan favorite like Trey Mancini. But with his 4.76 ERA, he’s not likely to bring back much more than a lottery ticket prospect anyway. Perhaps the O’s would be better served to just hang onto those innings and hope that 1.4% number grows.

Unlike the Orioles, the Angels have only dug themselves into a deeper hole. At the time MLBTR’s rankings came out, they were seven games out of a playoff spot, theoretically one hot streak away from jumping right back into the mix. However, they’ve unfortunately gone the other way, slipping to 10 1/2 back. That should only solidify Syndergaard as a guaranteed trade chip. But like many of the other pitchers highlighted here, he hasn’t been at his best lately. He had a 3.53 ERA through mid-June but a 5.01 over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, but he hasn’t looked like himself this season. After only throwing two innings over 2020-2021 due to Tommy John surgery and with his velocity down from his pre-surgery form, it’s fair to wonder if there might be some fatigue setting in.

Clevinger is a unique case, compared to the other names on this list. The Padres aren’t looking to sell because they’re not competitive, quite the opposite. It’s because they are competitive that they are looking to use their rotation surplus to create payroll space in order to upgrade elsewhere without going over the luxury tax. Moving Clevinger would be one way to do it, though his $5.75MM CBT hit is much less than Blake Snell’s $10MM. From San Diego’s perspective, moving Snell is probably preferable for the extra breathing space. A team could certainly try to work out a Clevinger deal, but you’d be competing with whatever teams are offering for Snell, as well as any other Clevinger suitors.

There are a few other names to consider, of course, but all come with similar question marks. Arizona’s Zach Davies is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Detroit’s Michael Pineda only recently returned from a broken finger and had his worst start of a generally underwhelming season just before the break. Mike Minor has an ERA north of 6.00 with the Reds.

All in all, there’s not a ton to bank on here. Any team that doesn’t pony up for Castillo, Montas or Mahle is going to be left with these options, all of whom come with question marks. There are other controllable starters who could be available, such as Oakland’s Paul Blackburn. But with three extra years of control, the A’s surely won’t just give him away. And he, too, has seen a downturn in performance over the last month (7.46 ERA over past five starts). We’re now less than two weeks until the August 2 trade deadline, so the remaining games for these pitchers will be magnified. With the expanded playoffs, there are still 17 teams that have at least a 29.7% chance to make the postseason, per FanGraphs. That has the potential for a situation with high demand and low supply in the days to come, bad news for those who need pitching but good news for those selling it.

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Latest On Pirates’ Trade Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | July 8, 2022 at 1:18pm CDT

Few players who could plausibly be moved this summer would be as impactful a pickup as Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates center fielder isn’t performing at quite his star level from last season, but he’s having another well above-average campaign. Through 335 plate appearances entering play Friday, Reynolds owns a .257/.337/.463 line with 15 home runs, 10 doubles and a trio of stolen bases.

Controllable for another three-plus seasons, there’d be no shortage of interest if the Bucs make him available over the coming weeks. Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Marlins, Phillies, Padres and Mariners among the teams likely to gauge his availability. There are no surprises among that group, as all five are known to be in the hunt for outfield help and/or have made unsuccessful attempts to pry Reynolds away in the past.

New York has relied on Aaron Judge in center field to great results, but they’ve grown dissatisfied with the continued struggles of Joey Gallo and (to a lesser extent) Aaron Hicks in the corners. They could eye Reynolds either to plug directly into left field or as a center field option capable of kicking Judge back to right. Miami and Philadelphia have direct needs in center field and figure to inquire about various possibilities at the position; the Fish have been linked to Oakland’s Ramón Laureano as well.

San Diego has holes in both corner spots and has watched center fielder Trent Grisham flounder for most of the year. Seattle may have the most robust outfield of any of the reported Reynolds suitors, but Jarred Kelenic struggled enough to be optioned to Triple-A and they’ve not gotten the production they’d anticipated from Jesse Winker or Mitch Haniger this season (the latter on account of injuries).

The quintet, of course, would certainly be joined by other suitors if the Pirates actively shopped Reynolds. Pittsburgh, however, has set a justifiably lofty asking price both at last summer’s deadline and over the winter. That makes him a longshot to actually change hands, and Heyman notes in a separate piece that it remains “unlikely” the Bucs will find a compelling enough offer to make a move.

That may also be true of star closer David Bednar, whom Heyman floats as a possible trade candidate. One of five players the Pirates acquired in the January 2021 Joe Musgrove deal, Bednar has emerged as one of the sport’s best late-inning weapons. Since landing in Pittsburgh, the right-hander has posted a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .187/.255/.321 line in just shy of 100 frames. That includes 39 innings of 2.31 ERA ball this season, with Bednar punching out more than a third of batters faced and likely to earn his first All-Star nod.

The 27-year-old comes with even more club control than Reynolds, as he’s slated to remain in Pittsburgh through 2026. Bednar won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until the 2024 campaign, so there’s no financial pressure for the Bucs to make a deal. Needless to say, they’d have to be blown away by a package to pull the trigger on a Bednar trade as well.

One player the Bucs are virtually assured of trading is starter José Quintana. The veteran southpaw is having a solid bounceback season after signing a $2MM free agent deal over the winter. He’s a sensible back-end rotation target for teams seeking pitching help, and the Bucs have already fielded hits from contenders. As an impeding free agent on a team that won’t come anywhere near the postseason, he’s as good a bet as any player in the league to change uniforms over the next few weeks.

Quintana suggested he’s not dwelling on the possibility of being dealt, saying he’s “(staying) focused on one start at a time” (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). He acknowledged a move was a possibility, but indicated he’d be open to returning to Pittsburgh in free agency next winter. “For sure, I want to come back here. But I think it’s too soon to talk about that. I want to keep my eyes focused on this season, one start at a time.” Nothing would preclude the Bucs from reengaging with Quintana’s representatives during the offseason if/when he’s dealt this month, but this season’s solid 3.33 ERA/3.96 SIERA make it likely he’ll land a loftier guarantee (and perhaps a two-year commitment) if he continues to pitch well down the stretch.

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Pirates Getting Plenty Of Interest In Jose Quintana

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2022 at 11:18am CDT

When the Pirates signed Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM contract over the winter, it was clear from the jump that if he performed well, he’d be among the most surefire trade candidates on the market. Fast forward seven months, and Quintana has done just that, turning in a vintage showing that resembles his peak years with the White Sox. Unsurprisingly, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Quintana is among the “most popular” names being discussed in what is still the nascent stages of the summer trade market.

This was likely always the plan for the Pirates: buy low on a pitcher with some track record who could potentially pitch his way into a trade chip. It’s a common tactic for rebuilding clubs, and one the Bucs have tried in the past under GM Ben Cherington (although Quintana is a bit more high-profile than either Tyler Anderson or Trevor Cahill were at the time of their deals with Pittsburgh). So far, it could scarcely have gone better.

Through 16 starts, Quintana has pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout rate, a 7.3% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. Those numbers stack up quite nicely with Quintana’s rates from his 2013-16 peak (20.8% strikeout rate, 6.0% walk rate, 43.7% grounder rate). He’s getting by with less life on his fastball than in the past — 91.1 mph average in 2022, 92.4 mph average from 2013-16 — but that’s hardly unexpected when comparing a pitcher’s age-23 through age-26 seasons to his age-33 campaign. And while some of the improvement in his plate discipline trends is likely reflective of the overall increase in strikeouts in recent years, it’s still notable that Quintana is sitting on an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and 35.6% opponents’ chase rate — both career-bests as a starting pitcher.

The Pirates have been judicious with Quintana’s workload and with the frequency (or lack thereof) with which they allow him to turn a lineup over for a third time. The veteran lefty is averaging just over five innings per start (81 innings, 16 starts), and only 54 of the 342 hitters he’s faced this season have been seeing Quintana for the third time on a given day. He’s acquitted himself quite well in those settings, yielding only a .208/.296/.313 batting line when facing hitters a third time, but the Bucs have only allowed him to pitch beyond the fifth inning in seven of his 16 starts.

Occasionally, Quintana has forced their hand with a rough showing early on, but those blips have been rare. Quintana has allowed more than three runs in only three of those 16 starts, and in one of those instances, three of the runs were unearned. The Bucs have seemingly been willing to give they lefty more leash after keeping his pitch counts low early in the season. He averaged 79 pitches per outing through his first five turns but has since averaged 90 pitches per start in 11 outings.

There’s little point in speculating on specific fits when it comes to Quintana, as the majority of contenders could use a solid arm to plug into the middle or back of their rotation. And, with just a $2MM salary on the season — about $995K of which remains to be paid out as of this writing — even the most cash-strapped clubs can take on the remainder of his salary without much issue.

Trades of note this far in advance of the deadline are increasingly rare in the modern game, as teams often wait until the final days to determine how aggressively to add — or whether to add at all. Even clear-cut sellers often hold off on conducting swaps of significance, as demand figures to increase closer to the deadline. That said, there’s zero doubt that the 33-47 Pirates (-113 run differential) will be open to moving short-term veterans this summer, so if a team wants to step up with an offer of note earlier than usual, the Bucs could be less reluctant to move than some other, more borderline sellers might be.

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Pirates To Sign Jose Quintana

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 3:54pm CDT

The Pirates have agreed to a deal with left-hander Jose Quintana, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link).  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Quintana’s contract is a one-year, Major League pact, and Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Quintana will earn around $2MM (both links to Twitter).  The signing will become official once Quintana passes a physical.  Quintana is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Quintana was one of the more durable and generally solid starters in baseball from 2012-19, when the southpaw pitched for the White Sox and Cubs.  However, thumb injuries and lat inflammation limited Quintana to only 10 innings for the Cubs in 2020, and he also spent about three weeks on the injured list this past season due to shoulder inflammation.  That IL stint was only one of the issues Quintana faced in 2021, after he signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Angels last winter.

The left-hander had only a 6.75 ERA over 53 1/3 innings in Anaheim, and then a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants after being claimed off waivers at the end of August.  It all worked out to a 6.43 ERA as a whole over 63 frames, though Quintana’s SIERA (3.94) and xFIP (3.75) were more than respectable.  A 3.78 BABIP may be the standout statistic in that regard, as Quintana received very little help from the Angels’ poor defense.

Batted-ball luck wasn’t the only culprit to blame for Quintana’s numbers, however.  He allowed a ton of hard contact and his 11.8% walk rate was easily the highest of his career.  On the flip side, Quintana’s 28.6% strikeout rate was also the highest of his career, and his whiff rate was well above the league average.  Quintana was also quite a bit more effective as a reliever than as a starter last year, as the Angels moved him to the bullpen in the wake of his rotation struggles.  This could hint at a new direction for Quintana as he enters his age-33 season, or at least a fallback option for the Pirates if Quintana doesn’t produce as a starter.

Given Pittsburgh’s need for starting pitching, it seems likely that the Bucs will use Quintana in their rotation to begin the year and hope that he can regain some of his pre-2020 form as a reliable innings-eater.  The Pirates don’t have much big league experience in their projected starting five, and the team surely wants to avoid a repeat of 2021, when a plethora of injuries and trades resulted in the Bucs having to dig deep into their depth chart to cover starts.  Should Quintana pitch well, Pittsburgh could also dangle him as a trade chip at the deadline.

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