Jose Quintana

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

By Simon Hampton | April 29, 2023 at 11:20am CDT

We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Mets Claim Seth Elledge From Braves

By Darragh McDonald | April 11, 2023 at 1:25pm CDT

The Braves announced that right-hander Seth Elledge has been claimed off waivers by the Mets. The righty had been designated for assignment last week. The Mets also announced the move, relaying that Elledge has been optioned to the minors and that left-hander José Quintana has been transferred to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move.

Elledge, 27 next month, has a small bit of major league experience. In a strange coincidence, he tossed 11 2/3 innings for the Cardinals in 2020 and again in 2021, posting a 4.63 ERA in both years. He was outrighted after the latter of those two seasons, becoming a free agent.

He signed a minor league deal with Atlanta last year and pitched well. In 46 1/3 Triple-A innings, he had a 3.88 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. That latter figure was probably the most significant, as control has been an issue for him throughout his career. The only other time he had a lower walk rate at any level was the 7.1% rate he had over 15 A-ball appearances in 2017. Most of his other stints have seen him push towards or beyond double digits.

That performance wasn’t enough to get him a big league call during the season, but the club did add Elledge to their roster in November to prevent him from becoming a free agent again. Since he still had options remaining, they were likely hoping to utilize him as depth, shuttling him to the big leagues and back to the farm as needed. However, they’ve added a great number of players to their roster in the early parts of the season, with Kevin Pillar, Jesse Chavez, Ehire Adrianza, Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd and Danny Young all getting added in recent weeks. Those moves all eventually led to Elledge getting nudged off the roster.

For the Mets, they had a roster spot that was essentially freely available. It was reported back in the middle of March that Quintana would need rib surgery that will keep him from returning until at least July. That made his transfer to the 60-day injured list an inevitable formality and allowed them to grab an intriguing player like Elledge. Their bullpen has been hit hard by injuries already this year, with Edwin Díaz, Bryce Montes de Oca and Sam Coonrod are all on the 60-day IL while Tommy Hunter and Stephen Ridings are on the 15-day version. Elledge will head to the minors for now but could be called upon whenever the big league club needs a fresh arm.

José Quintana Out Until At Least July Due To Rib Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | March 14, 2023 at 2:15pm CDT

March 14: Eppler today provided reporters with more information, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Quintana will undergo bone graft surgery on his rib and isn’t expected back until July at the earliest.

March 13, 3:15 pm: General manager Billy Eppler tells reporters, including Tim Britton of The Athletic, that the report of the three-month shutdown is “premature.” They are still talking to doctors about next steps.

1:30 pm: The Mets are planning to shut down starter José Quintana for the next three months, reports Mike Puma of The New York Post. The left-hander had recently been diagnosed with a stress fracture in one of his ribs and was sent for more imaging. It seems the injury is significant enough that he will miss roughly the first half of the season. However, Andy Martino of SNY has a slightly different viewpoint, reporting that the club is still considering different scenarios and will decide what to do in the next few days, with the three-month shutdown being one of the options being considered.

Quintana, 34, has long been a steady and reliable big league starter, primarily with the two Chicago clubs. From 2012 to 2019, he tossed 1,485 innings between the Cubs and White Sox with a 3.72 ERA. Outside of his rookie season in 2012, he made at least 31 starts and reached the 170-inning mark in each of those campaigns. That was followed by a couple of frustrating seasons, with a thumb injury holding him back in 2020 and the lefty struggling to get back on track in 2021. However, he finally got back into a good groove last year, tossing 165 2/3 innings between the Pirates and Cardinals with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate.

The Mets were facing a great deal of rotation uncertainty this winter, with Jacob deGrom opting out of his contract while Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker each declined options. With all three of those hurlers reaching free agency and eventually signing elsewhere, the Mets spent aggressively to rebuild their rotation around incumbents Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. They gave Justin Verlander an $86.67MM guarantee, $75MM to Kodai Senga and $26MM to Quintana, the latter on a two-year deal.

That gave the Mets a strong on-paper rotation but one with risk. Four of those five starters are over 34 years of age, while the 30-year-old Senga is going to be transitioning from a once-a-week throwing schedule in Japan to the five-day cycle of North American ball. We’re still not through spring and the Mets are already going to be turning to their depth options with Quintana set to miss significant time. Whether Quintana is ultimately shut down for three months or not, he’s likely facing an extended absence either way. Assuming Quintana is back to health in three months as planned, he will return to the mound in June. But he will then have to effectively redo his Spring Training, taking a few weeks to build back up to a starter’s workload, meaning the Mets will possibly have to look to other options until July or so.

Fortunately, the Mets have some solid depth options to turn to, such as David Peterson or Tylor Megill. The left-handed Peterson made 19 starts and nine relief appearances last year, posting a 3.83 ERA while striking out 27.8% of batters faced, walking 10.6% of them and getting grounders at a 49.4% clip. However, Puma reports that the club appears to be leaning towards Megill taking the rotation spot at this time. His 5.13 ERA from last year isn’t terribly impressive at first glance, but it’s possible that injuries played a role in that. As the Mets were dealing with injuries to start last year, they gave Megill a rotation spot and he posted a 1.93 ERA over five April starts. However, he allowed three earned runs in his next start and eight in the one after that, lasting just an inning and a third in the latter. He went on the injured list for biceps inflammation after that, came back for a couple more rough outings and went back on the IL for a shoulder strain.

Regardless of whoever ultimately gets the job, the Mets are now moving down their depth chart with this Quintana injury. It’s extremely rare for any team to get through a season without an injury like this, so the Mets surely anticipated having to call upon Peterson or Megill at some point. Still, it’s always unwelcome news when it actually comes into play. The club is set for what should be another tight divisional race this year, likely jockeying for position with Atlanta and Philadelphia for the top spot in the NL East, with the Mets already facing a significant hurdle in their path.

Kodai Senga, Brooks Raley Facing Injury Concerns

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2023 at 8:02pm CDT

8:02PM: Senga is day-to-day with tendinitis at the base of his index finger, the Mets announced.

5:41PM: Kodai Senga was supposed to make a Spring Training start for the Mets today, but Senga was scratched due to discomfort at the base of his right index finger. Senga unfortunately isn’t the only Mets pitcher dealing with injury, as “a low-grade hamstring strain” has forced reliever Brooks Raley to be removed from the Team USA roster at the World Baseball Classic. (Aaron Loup will take Raley’s place in the tournament.)

Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that both Senga and Raley should still be able to be part of New York’s roster on Opening Day. In regards to Senga, Showalter said the scratch was precautionary, and that “probably during the season, [Senga] would have pitched.”

As a reliever, Raley doesn’t need to rebuild as much arm strength in order to get back to full readiness. Assuming his hamstring problem doesn’t linger, the left-hander might not require much ramp-up time to prepare for game action in the Mets’ remaining Grapefruit League schedule, or for the start of the regular sesason.

The Mets acquired Raley in a trade with the Rays back in December. With Joely Rodriguez and Chasen Shreve departing in free agency, Raley was projected to be the top left-hander in the Mets bullpen, and perhaps even the only left-hander depending on how the club settles on its roster. While the Amazins were comfortable with carrying only one southpaw (Rodriguez) in the pen for large portions of the 2022 season, having an all-righty relief corps probably isn’t preferable. Since Joey Lucchesi is being stretched out as a starter, Raley’s injury might create an opportunity for minor league signing T.J. McFarland to break camp if Raley does indeed end up need more time to recover.

Senga will undergo imaging and tests on his hand, as the Mets will certainly take every precaution even if it seems as though Senga might have nothing more than a day-to-day setback. Until the imaging results are known, however, the situation adds some level of concern over Senga’s highly-anticipated debut season in Major League Baseball.

Senga signed a five-year, $75MM contract with New York in December, as the 30-year-old’s strong track record in Nippon Professional Baseball generated plenty of interest in his services amongst MLB teams. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported last month that the Mets did have some health-related questions about Senga prior to the agreement, though the exact nature of those concerns (and whether or not there’s any relation to Senga’s current finger problem) isn’t known.

Jose Quintana has already been sidelined with a stress fracture in his rib, so between Quintana’s injury and now this uncertainty over Senga, the Mets could potentially have two holes to fill in their rotation behind Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Carrasco. David Peterson had a scare of his own after he was hit in the foot by a comebacker earlier this spring, but Peterson suffered only a contusion and threw a live batting practice session on Thursday, so the southpaw should still be in line to take Quintana’s place. If Senga also has to miss time, Tylor Megill is likely the next choice up on the rotation depth chart.

One possible obstacle to Senga’s readiness could be his lack of spring action to date, as he has pitched in only one game thus far. The Mets were slowly bringing Senga into game action in order to better acclimate the right-hander to his new league, as Senga continues to adjust to the larger baseballs and steeper mounds used in MLB, as opposed to what Senga was used to in Japan.

Meanwhile, Quintana’s recovery timeline is yet to be determined, with Showalter telling Healey and other reporters that “they got a couple other people to look at some things and try to decide the best mode of operation which to go, as soon as we know exactly what we’re dealing with.”

The Mets’ Options If Jose Quintana Misses Time

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2023 at 10:57pm CDT

The Mets entered spring training with a deep but revamped rotation. Gone were longtime ace Jacob deGrom and steady right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. In their place, the Mets signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, NPB star Kodai Senga and veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who had a resurgent campaign between the Pirates and Cardinals this past season.

That the first injury of the season for manager Buck Showalter’s club came from the typically durable Quintana is both unexpected and unwelcome news. The 34-year-old southpaw logged 32 starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis in 2022, logging an excellent 2.93 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate. It was a vintage Quintana showing, hearkening back to his peak years in Chicago — and it was impressive enough to land him a two-year, $26MM contract (13 times larger than the one-year, $2MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh one winter ago).

Quintana will be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, however, owing to a stress fracture in his rib. There’s no sense running wild with speculation as to whether that’ll amount to weeks or months at this juncture, but at the very least, Opening Day doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Quintana exited after just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League start due to discomfort, so this isn’t likely to be an injury he can just pitch through.

If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that even through all of the turnover in the rotation, they’ve managed to maintain a solid amount of depth beyond the projected Opening Day quintet of Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. There were times when the team appeared open to moving Carrasco, but the early setback for Quintana highlights the importance of retaining him and so much of the other depth from which they could’ve dealt.

To that end, with what looks to be at least a short-term vacancy in the rotation, let’s run through the Mets’ options to fill the spot.

The Two Favorites

David Peterson, LHP, 27 years old

About as overqualified a sixth starter as you’ll find in the league, Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Mets: two of them good and the middle one (2021) quite bad. The lefty sandwiched an ugly 5.54 ERA between a pair of sub-4.00 efforts, with the end result being a solid 4.26 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.14 SIERA) in 222 innings at the big league level.

Peterson leaned more heavily on his four-seamer and slider than ever before in 2022, dropping his sinker/two-seam usage from 26.3% in 2021 to 12.3% last season. He posted career-best totals in swinging-strike rate (12.8%), opponents’ chase rate (31.2%) and opponents’ contact rate (71.2%). It’s tempting to think that some of those gains might be from working out of the bullpen for a spell, but while Peterson had similar ERAs as a starter and a reliever, he had better strikeout and walk rates while working out of the rotation.

Fresh off a season that saw him toss 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.4% grounder rate, Peterson is the ostensible front-runner to take any early starts that Quintana might miss. Other clubs surely had interest in him this winter — particularly once the Mets had signed all three of Verlander, Senga and Quintana — but the decision to hold onto him is already paying off.

Tylor Megill, RHP, 27

If Peterson is the favorite, Megill might not be all that far behind. He made 18 respectable starts in 2021, pitching to a 4.52 ERA with more impressive strikeout and walk rates (26.1% and 7.1%, respectively). In 2022, when the Mets needed a starter, Megill stepped up and took the ball on six occasions from April 7 through May 4, pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA with a gaudy 36-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings of work. His fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph in 2021, was up to nearly 96 mph on average in 2022, and Megill suddenly looked like far more than a band-aid on an injury-marred starting staff — at least until the injury bug bit him, too.

The Mets placed Megill on the 15-day injured list with biceps inflammation on May 12, just days after he was tattooed for eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals. He returned on June 10, made a pair of starts that lasted 3 1/3 frames apiece (yielding a combined six runs in the process) and went back on the IL just seven days after being activated — this time due to a shoulder strain. The absence proved far more substantial this time around. Megill was transferred to the 60-day IL just 10 days after his original placement, and he remained sidelined all the way until Sept. 19.

In his career, Megill has overwhelmed right-handed opponents with a power fastball/slider combination, but his changeup has been generally ineffective, leaving him susceptible to left-handed batters. That bears out in his alarming platoon splits. Righties have been downright flummoxed by him, batting only .202/.247/.331. Lefty bats, however, have absolutely clobbered Megill at a .307/.368/.568 clip. He’ll have a chance to win the job, but if he’s going to find long-term success, he’ll need to find a better offering to neutralize opponents in platoon settings.

Longer Shots Who Could Start At Some Point In 2023

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, 29

Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to San Diego, Lucchesi made 11 solid appearances for the Mets in 2021, serving in this exact type of sixth starter role that’s now resurfaced in Queens. Eight of those appearances were starts, and the former fourth-round pick worked to a decent 4.46 ERA with a more-impressive 3.40 FIP and 3.79 SIERA. Lucchesi punched out a strong 26.1% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.1% walk rate. He might’ve held that role down the stretch — and into 2022 — had he remained healthy, but a late-June diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament led to Tommy John surgery. Lucchesi missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 campaign.

Early in his career with the Friars, Lucchesi looked the part of a solid fourth starter, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 56 starts and 293 2/3 innings from 2018-19. He’s thrown just 44 innings since that time, due primarily to injury, but he owns a 4.24 ERA in 337 2/3 big league innings. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Mets can send him to Triple-A Syracuse to stay stretched out and monitor his workload if they go another route in the rotation. Given that he missed all of the 2022 season, Lucchesi is likely to have his innings capped this season, which probably works against him — especially in the early stages.

Elieser Hernandez, RHP, 27

An offseason acquisition made with an eye toward bolstering the pitching depth, Hernandez came over alongside reliever Jeff Brigham in a deal sending minor leaguers Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum to Miami. He’s fresh off a tough 2022 season, but the former Rule 5 pick — the Marlins selected him out of the Astros organization in 2017 — was once a promising member of the Marlins’ young core of arms. From 2020-21, he pitched 77 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with plus strikeout (26.3%) and walk (5.7%) rates.

Home runs and injuries have been a problem for Hernandez throughout his career, however. His breakout 2020 campaign was shortened by a lat strain, and his 2021 season was interrupted both by a strained quadriceps and inflammation in his right biceps. He’s only shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors, but Hernandez also sports a stout 2.86 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 129 Triple-A frames spread across parts of four seasons. He has a minor league option remaining, but he could also make the club as a long reliever.

Jose Butto, RHP, 25

Butto, who’ll turn 26 in less than two weeks, made his big league debut last year when he tossed four innings but was knocked around by the Phillies, who scored seven runs against him at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t a great first impression, but Butto nonetheless had a strong year in the minors, logging a combined 3.56 ERA in 129 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Scouting reports at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs laud Butto’s plus changeup and above-average heater, but he lacks a third offering, leading to plenty of speculation that he’ll ultimately settle in as a long reliever or swingman. There’s more upside here if he can improve either his curveball or his slider, but he’d be hard-pressed to leapfrog the names ahead of him for starts early in the season. Still, he’s already gotten his feet wet in the Majors and had success in the upper minors, so with some improvements to his secondary pitches and/or a big early performance in Syracuse, Butto could find himself making some starts at some point this year, as injuries on the big league roster necessitate.

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As far as non-roster options go, the Mets are generally light on MLB-ready starting pitching in the upper levels of their system (beyond the 40-man names already covered above). Recent trades have thinned out some of that depth, with both J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller going to the A’s for Chris Bassitt, while Thomas Szapucki went to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf swap. Most of the Mets’ very best prospects are position players, and the top-ranked pitchers in their system are generally multiple years from MLB readiness.

The presence of Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez and Butto gives the Mets ample depth from which to draw, particularly given how solid both Peterson and Megill looked at times last year. Still, pitcher performance is volatile and injuries are inevitable. If the Mets want to further cultivate some depth, there are a handful of recognizable veteran names who’ve yet to sign — Michael Pineda, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy among them. Whether that trio, or any of the other remaining starters on the market, is willing to take a minor league deal remains to be seen.

Failing that, the Mets can perhaps keep an eye on other veterans around the league who are currently on minor league/non-roster deals. Many of those pitchers have opt-out opportunities if they don’t make their current club’s roster or upward mobility clauses that allow them to leave the current organization if another team is willing to offer an immediate 40-man roster spot.

For the time being, it doesn’t appear particularly crucial for the Mets to make another addition, but a second injury in the rotation would start to leave an otherwise strong staff looking vulnerable, and there’s little harm in stockpiling depth to the extent possible.

José Quintana Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Rib

By Darragh McDonald | March 6, 2023 at 5:05pm CDT

The Mets informed reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that left-hander José Quintana has a “small stress fracture” in his fifth rib on his left side. He left his spring outing yesterday with side tightness and later announced that he was withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic. He is leaving camp and headed to New York for further imaging. The club does not have a timeline on his recovery yet.

Quintana, 34, was pencilled in to be a key piece of the Mets’ rotation this year after signing a two-year, $26MM deal in the offseason. He had a rough couple of seasons in 2020 and 2021 but bounced back nicely last year with the Pirates and Cardinals. He tossed 165 2/3 innings between the two clubs with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. The Mets signed him to that two-year pact and hoped to have him in their rotation alongside Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco.

At this point, it’s still unclear what the next steps will be, but it seems like Quintana will at least be delayed. There’s just over three weeks until Opening Day at this point. Even if he’s able to return to the mound in short order, he would still need some time to build up his pitch count.

It was around this time last year that Red Sox lefty Chris Sale was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib, which prevented him from making his season debut until July. That’s not to say Quintana is facing the same absence, as all injuries are unique and players respond to them differently. However, it does illustrate that the diagnosis has the chance to be significant.

We don’t know what kind of absence Quintana ultimately will require, but the Mets have depth options on their roster if Quintana does eventually need to miss some of the regular season. Joey Lucchesi was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2022 and missed all of the MLB season. He began a rehab assignment in August of last year and pitched 12 2/3 minor league innings before the winter arrived. Back in 2019, he made 30 starts for the Padres and posted a 4.18 ERA. Tylor Megill made nine starts and six relief appearances for the club last year, posting a combined 5.13 ERA. David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA across 19 starts and nine relief appearances last year and would perhaps be the first one called up to take a rotation job. He recently had his own injury scare when a comebacker hit him in the foot, though it seems he escaped with just a contusion and is day-to-day. All three of Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson have options, allowing them to be stretched out in the minors whenever their services are not required by the big league club.

NL East Notes: Quintana, Peterson, Kieboom

By Nick Deeds and Darragh McDonald | March 5, 2023 at 9:02pm CDT

Mets general manager Billy Eppler told reporters today, including Tim Healey of Newsday Sports (Twitter links), that left-hander José Quintana had his start limited to just one inning today against the Cardinals due to left side tightness. Healey relays that Quintana will no longer participate in the World Baseball Classic and will attempt to be ready for the MLB season.

Long before he joined the Mets, Quintana spent the first several seasons of his career as a reliable middle of the rotation arm in Chicago, first with the White Sox from 2012-2017, then with the Cubs from 2017-2020 following the deal that sent him across town in exchange for Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease. However, Quintana began to struggle toward the end of his time in Chicago: he posted his first below average season by ERA+ in 2019, pitched just 10 innings due to injury in the shortened 2020 season, and had a disastrous 2021 season split between the Giants and the Angels where he pitched to a 6.43 ERA (69 ERA+) in 63 innings of work.

Quintana managed to turn things around in 2022, however: he pitched to a strong 3.50 ERA in 103 innings as a member of the Pirates before being dealt to the Cardinals at the trade deadline last year, where he went on to dominate, posting a sensational 2.01 ERA (191 ERA+) over 62 2/3 innings down the stretch. His overall season line of a 2.93 ERA (137 ERA+) and 2.99 FIP earned him a two-year, $26MM contract with the Mets this winter. At this point, the severity of the injury is unknown, but the fact that he’s dropped out of the WBC and isn’t certain about being ready for the start of the regular season gives a vague timeframe. Whenever he’s healthy, the Mets figure to have Quintana rounding out their rotation alongside Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco behind co-aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

By Darragh McDonald | February 9, 2023 at 7:30pm CDT

The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Mets Sign José Quintana To Two-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 9, 2022 at 5:35pm CDT

December 9: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

December 7: The Mets and left-hander José Quintana are in agreement on a two-year, $26MM contract, pending a physical. He will make even salaries of $13MM in each season.

Quintana, 34 in January, was a remarkably steady and consistent member of the White Sox rotation in his first five seasons. He debuted in 2012 with 22 starts, three relief appearances and a 3.76 ERA. For the next four seasons, he made at least 32 starts in each campaign while keeping his ERA between 3.51 and 3.20.

Unfortunately, he hit a few rough patches after that, as his ERA ticked up over 4.00 for three straight campaigns from 2017 to 2019, with Quintana getting traded across town to the Cubs in that time. A thumb injury in 2020 limited him to just 10 innings pitched in the shortened campaign. He signed with the Angels for 2021 but was shelled in nine starts to begin the year and got moved to the bullpen.

For 2022, the rebuilding Pirates took a flier on Quintana with a one-year, $2MM deal. The hope was that he would return to form, provide some veteran stability for their young rotation and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip by the deadline. That plan could hardly have gone much better, as the southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.

Quintana was then able to return to free agency in a much stronger position than his previous trips. In addition to his strong platform season, his midseason trade made him ineligible for a qualifying offer and his age made it unlikely that he would be able to pursue a lengthy contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM deal, with Quintana eventually nudging just barely beyond that.

For the Mets, they were facing a great deal of turnover on their pitching staff, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker reaching free agency, along with several relievers. deGrom has since joined the Rangers and Walker the Phillies. The Mets effectively replaced deGrom by signing Verlander and have now added Quintana to take a role in the middle or back of the rotation. That gives the Mets a front four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Quintana. They have some internal options to take the fifth spot, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, but it’s also possible that they continue to pursue external additions.

This signing brings the club’s payroll to $290MM for next year, according to Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $301MM. It’s unclear exactly how much they plan on spending by the time the dust has settled, but owner Steve Cohen has previously floated $300MM as a ballpark figure, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. In terms of the luxury tax, they are already beyond the fourth and highest tier of penalization, which will be $293MM next year. As a second-time payor, they are subject to escalating penalties, meaning they will pay a 30% tax on the spending between $233-253MM, 42% between $253-273MM, 75% between $273-293MM and 90% above the top tier.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Quintana would join the Mets at $26MM over two years. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added that it would break down into even salaries of $13MM in each year.

Cardinals Interested In José Quintana Reunion

By Darragh McDonald | December 2, 2022 at 12:29pm CDT

The Cardinals acquired left-hander José Quintana at the deadline and were evidently pleased with their brief relationship with him. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of The New York Post mention that the Cardinals are interested in bringing Quintana back, though Heyman notes that they have competition for his services.

Quintana, 34 in January, endured a rough two-year stretch in 2020 and 2021. A thumb injury limited him to 10 innings in the former and his ERA ballooned up to 6.43 in the latter. The Pirates took a flier on him in 2022 with a $2MM deal to act as a stabilizing veteran force in their rotation of inexperienced youngsters. That plan went about as well as could have been hoped, with Quintana bouncing back and turning himself into a deadline trade chip, going to the Cardinals alongside Chris Stratton for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez.

MLBTR’s Simon Hampton recently took a thorough look at Quintana’s season, which finished with a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings. Quintana’s 20.2% strikeout rate was a couple of ticks below league average, but his 46.4% ground ball rate was strong. The Cardinals are known for their defensive prowess and Quintana’s grounder-heavy approach worked better after the uniform switch, as he had a 3.50 ERA as a Pirate and 2.01 as a Cardinal.

Though it was just 12 starts, Quintana and the Cards seemed to be a good match for each other. It makes sense that there would be some mutual interest in a reunion, though the roster fit in St. Louis would be imperfect at the moment. The club already has a number of rotation candidates, including Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson, as well as prospects like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.

Hudson had a poor year in 2022 and could be best utilized as a long man in the bullpen who could jump into the rotation in case of an injury. However, it would be harder to justify bumping any of the other five. Wainwright, Mikolas and Montgomery are all coming off solid seasons and seem to have jobs locked down. Matz had an injury marred season in 2022 but he still has three years and $34MM remaining on the four-year deal he signed with them a year ago. Given their investment, they will surely give him a chance to bounce back with better health going forward. Flaherty has been dealing with injuries over the past three seasons but pitched like an ace when he was last healthy in 2019.

As Rosenthal notes, four of these pitchers are free agents at the end of 2023: Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty. As of right now, the 2024 rotation would be Hudson and Matz, with three openings available for prospects to potentially fill. Perhaps that means they would consider signing a starter to help them now and next year, though that would likely mean they have to find a trading partner for one of those other four to create space in the short term.

Even though Quintana’s entering his age-34 season, his bounceback was solid enough that MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM contract for him. He’s part of a large group of mid-rotation candidates available in free agency this winter, including Ross Stripling, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon and others. The market seems to be strong so far, as Tyler Anderson secured a three-year, $39MM deal despite having a qualifying offer attached and Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays, easily beating our two-year, $22MM prediction. Mike Clevinger got one year and $12MM, just ahead of our $10MM prediction, and Matthew Boyd got $10MM despite not even cracking our top 50. Though the Cardinals clearly like Quintana, the fit is a little awkward and they’re surely not the only team calling him up. The Pirates also reportedly have interest in a reunion and there’s no shortage of sensible fits beyond that. The Cards’ payroll is currently around $154MM, per Roster Resource. That’s almost even with last year’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated payroll will be going up this year.

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