Astros, Tigers Still Discussing Possible Justin Verlander Swap
11:31am: The clubs have not been in touch “for a few days” and remain “apart,” Heyman now tweets.
10:31am: The Astros remain engaged with the Tigers about a possible deal that would send star righty Justin Verlander to Houston, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Verlander has cleared revocable waivers, meaning he can be freely dealt — so long as he is willing to waive his no-trade rights.
Verlander, 34, is among the many players that have reportedly cleared waivers in recent weeks. While several organizations surely had interest in him at the trade deadline, his large contract — which includes about $7MM in remaining salary this year, $56MM in guaranteed money for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and a 2020 vesting option — remains an evident obstacle.
Prior reports had suggested that talks between these organizations had failed to gain traction, though obviously the picture is always susceptible of change. There’s still “a decent gap” between the teams at present, Heyman adds, though it remains notable that there’s ongoing dialogue.
Even assuming Houston and Detroit can work out the money and agree upon a prospect return, there remains the wild card of the no-trade protection. It’s not clear whether Verlander would demand any consideration for accepting a deal, though there has been some discussion of that possibility — including the potential that he could seek to pick up an opt-out opportunity.
While there are obviously still significant barriers to a deal, there’s also clear motivation for both teams. The Astros will easily win their division, but their rotation has shown cracks over the course of the season and they missed on their top targets at the trade deadline. Verlander, meanwhile, has turned things around of late after a middling performance to open the year. In his last seven outings, he carries a 1.91 ERA over 47 frames, racking up a 50:16 K/BB ratio while holding opposing hitters to a paltry .187/.258/.327 batting line.
That surge has helped to boost the near-term and long-term outlook on Verlander. After showing some signs of slowing down in prior campaigns, he turned in a monster 2016 season in which he ran up a 3.04 ERA over 227 2/3 innings — though he was also aided by a .255 BABIP-against. While it’s fair to temper expectations given Verlander’s age, he is carrying a 95.7 mph average fastball velocity that sits above his career average and a 9.8% swinging-strike rate that lands just below his overall mean.
Justin Verlander Could Add Opt-Out Clause To Contract If Traded
Thanks to Justin Verlander‘s age (34), sizable contract and full no-trade clause, the odds of the Tigers dealing the longtime ace this summer already appear low. Here’s another wrinkle, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi: According to the collective bargaining agreement, Verlander will be able to add an opt-out clause to his contract if he agrees to waive his no-trade rights. An opt-out would give Verlander a chance to exit the remaining two years and $56MM on his contract after this season or the $28MM left on his deal at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign.
Teams have already been reluctant to part with premium prospects for Verlander, and the opt-out possibility could make a trade even less likely as a result. On the other hand, it might not be that detrimental, Morosi explains. In order to mitigate the risk of an acquiring team losing Verlander over the winter, the Tigers could agree to pay that club around $10MM per year over each of the next two seasons if he declines his opt-out, a source suggested to Morosi. That would give Verlander a chance to test drive a new team before making an opt-out decision and give that employer “financial protection from injury or underperformance,” Morosi writes.
Morosi specifically focuses on Houston as a possible landing spot for Verlander, though he notes that it’s unknown if the Asros and the Tigers have made progress in talks regarding the right-hander. Both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of FanRag have reported this week that there’s little to no hope for a Verlander swap between the clubs. Although, the Astros aren’t the only team capable of landing Verlander, who has already cleared revocable waivers. The Tigers are allowed to market him to anyone as a result, but again, there are major roadblocks in the way.
Amid the uncertainty, it’s worth pointing out that the flamethrowing Verlander has recovered from a so-so start to the season with a return to top-of-the-rotation form in recent weeks. Across 40 1/3 second-half innings, Verlander has logged a 2.01 ERA, amassed 44 strikeouts against 12 walks and held opposing hitters to an awful .177/.244/.310 line.
Heyman’s Latest: Yanks, Mets, Darvish, Astros, Twins, Bucs
The Yankees showed interest in Mets second baseman Neil Walker before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The crosstown rivals actually had a deal for Walker in place, tweets Mike Puma of Newsday, but it fell through over medical concerns. Walker suffered a partially torn hamstring in mid-June and returned shortly before the deadline. At that point, the Yankees had recently lost second baseman Starlin Castro to a hamstring injury of his own, but he’s now nearing a rehab assignment, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (Twitter link). As for Walker, the impending free agent has already cleared revocable waivers this month, making him eligible for a trade, though he’s owed sizable sum (around $6MM) through season’s end.
More from Heyman via a trio of columns, all of which are worth reading in full:
- The Rangers don’t expect to reunite with Yu Darvish in free agency, suggests Heyman, who adds that they decided a couple days before the non-waiver deadline that they were going to trade the ace. Texas ended up dealing Darvish to the Dodgers right before the clock ran out. The Astros were a rumored Darvish suitor leading up to then, but they didn’t make a real effort to land him, reports Heyman.
- Speaking of the Astros, their talks with the Tigers regarding Justin Verlander are all but dead, per Heyman, which jibes with a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. “It never got close,” a personal familiar with the discussions told Heyman, and that source expects Verlander to still be in a Tigers uniform when the 2018 season begins. Houston was unwilling to deal any of its best prospects for the expensive, aging Verlander (or any of its other deadline targets), but a Tigers official told Heyman, “You’re trading an icon, you’ve got to get something back.” The Astros have been conservative in terms of making acquisitions this summer, surely because a 71-42 team doesn’t need a ton of help, but GM Jeff Luhnow’s lack of bold moves has led to frustration within the organization, writes Heyman. Ace Dallas Keuchel voiced some displeasure immediately after the club’s quiet deadline (only scuffling lefty Francisco Liriano came aboard), and outfielder Josh Reddick followed suit Thursday in an interview with MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). Astros players were “down in the dumps” after the deadline, Reddick revealed.
- The Twins reportedly listened to offers for righty Ervin Santana in advance of the deadline, but their interest in dealing the solid mid-rotation starter was minimal, relays Heyman. Santana is under control through next season on fair $13.5MM salaries (his deal also features a $14MM club option for 2019), making it unlikely he’d go unclaimed on waivers this month, notes Heyman.
- Although GM Sandy Alderson is in the last year of his contract, people around the Mets expect him to return in 2018. There’s less certainty surrounding manager Terry Collins, who’s also in a contract year. Heyman lists Mets bench coach Dickie Scott, Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren (who previously held that post with the Mets) and Athletics third base coach Chip Hale as potential replacements for Collins if he’s not back next year.
- Meanwhile, both Pirates GM Neal Huntington and skipper Clint Hurdle appear safe. As long as the two want to return in 2018, the Pirates will exercise their options.
- The White Sox would like to deal veteran hurlers Derek Holland, Miguel Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard, which isn’t surprising considering they’re impending free agents on a rebuilding team. Given the seasons they’re having, Holland and Gonzalez probably won’t carry much appeal to rotation-needy contenders, though Clippard has put up six straight scoreless appearances out of Chicago’s bullpen. Across that seven-inning span, Clippard allowed three hits and three walks, with nine strikeouts. MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted Wednesday that Clippard’s a prime August trade candidate.
- The Diamondbacks were in on reliever Joe Smith before the Blue Jays dealt him to the Indians, but David Hernandez “seemed to be” Arizona’s top target, Heyman writes. The D-backs ended up acquiring Hernandez from the Angels, making this his second stint in Arizona. Hernandez has only thrown 2 2/3 innings in his return to the club, but they’ve been spotless (no runs, hits or walks allowed).
No Progress In Verlander Talks Between Tigers, Astros
Aug. 7: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that recent talks between the Astros and Tigers weren’t productive. The Tigers are saying that they expect Verlander to remain with the team into the winter, Nightengale adds.
Aug. 6: The Tigers and Astros were in touch about a potential Justin Verlander trade this month, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. It isn’t clear if these talks could be building towards a possible trade of the former Cy Young Award winner, or if the two clubs were just checking back in with each other out of due diligence, since Detroit and Houston also discussed Verlander prior to the trade deadline. Those talks involved Verlander and Justin Wilson both going to the Astros, though that scenario is no longer in play now that Wilson had been traded to the Cubs.
Verlander has cleared revocable waivers, so the Tigers are free to discuss him in trade talks even now that the July 31 deadline has passed. Of course, all of the same obstacles that likely prevented a Verlander trade from being consummated are still in place — Verlander’s age (34), large contract (around $63.25MM through the 2019 season), the Tigers’ reported willingness to pay relatively little of that remaining salary, his no-trade clause, and the fact that Verlander has been only a solid pitcher this season rather than the rotation-topping ace he has been in 2016 and past seasons.
It’s worth noting that Verlander has been pitching better as of late, posting a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts (including six shutout innings of the Astros themselves on July 31). Houston also left the deadline trade market relatively empty-handed, only acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Blue Jays as lefty bullpen relief after missing out on Zach Britton.
The Astros were also linked to several starting pitchers, and they continue to have a need for rotation help now that Lance McCullers is on the 10-day DL with back problems. Dallas Keuchel and a healthy McCullers sit firmly atop Houston’s rotation, with Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton all having delivered some good results when given the ball. Still, Verlander would be a much more proven addition to the Astros’ top three come the postseason, and he could be a difference-maker if he is able to recapture his old form.
Players That Have Cleared Revocable Waivers
We’ll use this post to keep track of players that have reportedly cleared revocable waivers. Before diving into the names, a few items bear repeating. The majority of Major League players will be placed on trade waivers this month, with most instances going unreported. There are undoubtedly players (quite a few of them, most likely) who have already cleared waivers but have not been reported to have done so. Players can be traded into September, as well, but only those traded on or before Aug. 31 will be eligible for the postseason with their new teams, so there’s some urgency for contending clubs to complete deals by month’s end. And, of course, for those who aren’t familiar with the inner-workings of waiver trades, MLBTR published a full explanation of how August trades work earlier this month.
Here’s the current list (last updated Aug. 29):
- Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants (link): While he hasn’t produced great results this year and is owed another $54MM over the following three seasons, Samardzija has put up compelling peripherals and has long been a scout’s favorite. Still, the Giants may not be all that inclined to move him and Samardzija has broad no-trade protection, so a deal seems unlikely.
- Nicholas Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (link): The 25-year-old hasn’t produced at the plate this year after a quality 2016 season. But he is still hitting the ball hard and could be an interesting bounceback target for other organizations — with an offseason deal seeming more likely than a late-August swap. Castellanos is playing this year on a $3MM salary and can be controlled for two more campaigns via arbitration.
- R.A. Dickey, RHP, Braves (link): Dickey has been just what Atlanta thought it was getting: a solid innings eater with plenty of durability but limited upside. He could fill in the fifth slot in a contender’s rotation, but teams might be reluctant to force one of their catchers to learn to catch a knuckleball this late in the year. He’s averaging six innings per start, and Atlanta may just keep him around in 2018.
- Brad Ziegler, RHP, Marlins (link): Ziegler has been stellar since returning from the disabled list and could certainly help a contending club’s bullpen. However, he’s owed $9MM in 2018, and the Marlins now find themselves back in Wild Card contention — both of which make a trade before the end of August unlikely. He could be an offseason trade candidate.
- Miguel Gonzalez, RHP, White Sox (link): Gonzalez is earning $5.9MM in 2017 and has been a serviceable, if unspectacular source of innings for the ChiSox. He won’t be a part of a contending club’s playoff rotation, but a team with a big division lead that is looking to rest its rotation (or allow some of its injured rotation members to mend) could turn to Gonzalez for some stability. The asking price won’t be much.
- Derek Holland, LHP, White Sox (link): Like Gonzalez, Holland could be a rotation stabilizer for a team with a comfortable division lead. He’s also shut down opposing lefties (.216/.279/.333) in 2017, so perhaps a club would look at him as a potential relief specialist with expanded September rosters on the horizon.
- James Shields, RHP, White Sox (link): The Sox still owe Shields the balance of a $10MM commitment this season (the Padres are on the hook for the rest), plus $12MM in 2018. Given his enormous struggles over the past two seasons, he’s not going anywhere unless the ChiSox simply cut bait and release him.
- Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers (link): Martinez has been a decidedly below-average contributor at the plate in 2017 and is owed the balance of this year’s $18MM salary plus an identical $18MM salary in 2018. The Tigers won’t find any takers here.
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (link): Cabrera is 34 years old and has been a roughly league-average hitter in 2017. He’s owed a ridiculous $192MM from 2018-23 and has full no-trade protection as well. That last point is largely moot, though, as his enormous contract makes him all but impossible to move anyhow.
- Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Tigers (link): With a 5.29 ERA in his nearly two seasons as a Tiger and $74MM owed to him from 2018-20, Zimmermann is effectively an immovable asset for the Tigers.
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins (link): Stanton is owed $295MM over the next decade, so an attempt at acquiring him wouldn’t exactly make for a casual undertaking. He has more than made up for a relatively disappointing 2016 season thus far with a monster 2017, boosting his value, but structuring a deal would be complicated by a variety of factors — including the Miami organization’s still-pending sale.
- Brandon Phillips, 2B, Braves (link): The 36-year-old isn’t the exciting option he once was, but Phillips still brings acceptable and affordable production to the table. Combining those factors with his impending free agency, Phillips seems like someone the Braves could realistically trade this month.
- Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants (link): Crawford emerged as a two-way star over the previous couple seasons, pairing good offense with otherworldly defense. His glovework remains strong, but the 30-year-old’s production at the plate has fallen off dramatically this season. The Giants reportedly still have little interest in dealing him, and doing so would be difficult in any event. Crawford, who’s making $8MM this year, will rake in $15MM each season from 2018-21. He also has a full no-trade clause.
- Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (link): Unfortunately, King Felix’s days as an ace appear long gone, which is all the more troubling for the Mariners when taking his contract into consideration. Hernandez, 31, is collecting a $26MM salary this year and will make $53MM more from 2018-19. He also has a full no-trade clause, making him even less movable.
- Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets (link): Unlike fellow Mets outfielders Bruce and Granderson, Cespedes doesn’t seem like a logical trade candidate. Cespedes is in the first season of a four-year, $110MM deal, and the Mets gave the franchise cornerstone a full no-trade clause when they re-signed him.
- Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (link): Cabrera, who’s making $8.25MM this season and has either an $8.5MM club option or a $2MM buyout for 2018, drew trade interest in July. However, recent indications are that the Mets are leaning toward keeping him in the fold for next year.
- AJ Ramos, RP, Mets (link): Ramos was a popular name in trade rumors before the Mets acquired him from the Marlins in late July. Plenty of teams showed interest in Ramos, so perhaps the Mets would be able to find a taker for the longtime closer. However, New York acquired Ramos knowing it wasn’t in contention this season, so keeping him into 2018 – his final season of arbitration eligibility – looks more likely.
- Bryce Harper, RF, Nationals (link): Harper isn’t going anywhere. Putting the superstar through waivers was purely a procedural move by the Nationals.
- Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (link): Davis, 31, no longer resembles the force of nature he was at the plate before the Orioles handed him a seven-year, $161MM contract leading up to the 2016 campaign. They included a partial no-trade clause in the accord, but the contract itself has essentially become a full NTC thanks to Davis’ decline. Realistically, Baltimore’s stuck with him.
- Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (link): The Reds haven’t shown any interest in moving Votto, nor has he expressed a willingness to leave Cincinnati. Considering those factors, the remaining money on Votto’s enormous contract (a guaranteed $171MM through 2024) and his full no-trade clause, the hitting savant will stay where he is.
- Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers (link): With plenty of cash still owed this year and $56MM more promised through 2019, Verlander is not a guy who’ll casually be acquired. Things are complicated by Detroit’s inclination to try to achieve real value for a cornerstone player, not to mention Verlander’s full no-trade rights — though he seems willing to entertain a move. While a deal still seems less than likely, Verlander could be a fascinating player to watch if he throws well and one or more contenders see a need for his services.
- Justin Upton, LF, Tigers (link): As is the case with Verlander, moving Upton would be a major challenge for Detroit. Not only does Upton have a 20-team no-trade clause, but his contract includes an opt-out clause for after the season, when he’ll have to decide whether to play out his deal or leave four years and roughly $88MM on the table. The tricky financial situation has apparently overshadowed the great season Upton’s having, as nobody has shown real interest in acquiring him.
Additionally, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Neil Walker cleared waivers before their respective trades to the Dodgers, Indians and the Brewers.
Justin Verlander Clears Revocable Waivers
Aug. 4: Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that Verlander has cleared revocable waivers (Twitter link). As such, the Tigers will be able to freely discuss trades of Verlander from now through the end of the 2017 season, though he’d need to be on a new team’s roster before Sept. 1 in order to be eligible for the postseason roster.
Aug. 2: Tigers righty Justin Verlander was placed on revocable waivers on Wednesday, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. It’s worth emphasizing, especially early in the month, that the move comes as no surprise. Teams will place the vast majority of their rosters on revocable waivers this month in an effort to gauge interest and also as a smokescreen to mask which players they may actually be more amenable to trading. There’s no downside, after all, as each club has the right to pull a player back from waivers the first time that he is claimed.
[Related: How August Trades Work]
That said, Verlander’s placement is among the more notable instances of this largely procedural move. With about $65.3MM owed to Verlander through the completion of the 2019 season, he’s exceedingly likely to clear. At that point, the Tigers will be able to continue discussing trades with all 29 other teams in the league, though Verlander’s full no-trade clause and sizable contract will continue to serve as significant impediments to working out a trade. (Notably, Crasnick reminds that Verlander’s no-trade protection would allow him to even veto a claim in the unlikely event that a club places a claim and the Tigers were willing to let him go for nothing.)
At last check, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers were only willing to pay the remainder of Verlander’s 2017 salary — a sum that currently stands at about $9.33MM. That’d leave any team on the hook for $56MM from 2018-19 in the event of a Verlander trade.
The 34-year-old Verlander hasn’t been himself in 2017, as he’s averaged fewer than six innings per start with an elevated 4.2 BB/9 rate and a diminished 8.7 K/9 rate. The deteriorated ground-ball rate he’s displayed in recent years has also held up, as he’s checked in at 33.9 percent in that regard. Overall, Verlander has a 4.29 ERA through 130 frames this year, though his fastball velocity remains as strong as ever (95.2 mph average). And, to his credit, Verlander has been much better in his past 32 innings in terms of ERA (2.25), though his 3.7 BB/9 rate in that time is still a lofty mark — especially by his excellent standards.
The Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and Brewers were among the teams linked to the former Rookie of the Year, Cy Young winner and American League MVP prior to the non-waiver deadline. The Dodgers, of course, went on to pick up Yu Darvish in a last-minute deadline blockbuster, while the Cubs made a significant rotation splash in mid-July by acquiring Jose Quintana from the crosstown White Sox.
Morning Market Chatter: Verlander, Claudio, Asdrubal, Hand
While the Tigers have drawn interest in Justin Verlander during the run-up to the deadline, there are no active talks as of this morning, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). As Morosi notes, that’s of added significance given that Verlander possesses full no-trade rights — meaning he’d need to be afforded some time to approve any deal that might take place. Most recent indications have been that Verlander would not end up moving this summer, with his expensive contract and the Tigers’ relatively lofty trade requests posing barriers. But his recent run of solid outings had perhaps made him a more intriguing target, and it remains possible that a late-breaking move could occur. That’s quite unlikely, though, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link) who hears that neither Verlander nor outfielder Justin Upton will be on the move today.
More market chatter:
- The Rangers are “reluctantly willing” to engage in trade talks on reliever Alex Claudio, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). He becomes the latest Texas player to hit the rumor wire, joining fellow relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Keone Kela (though as Grant notes, Jeffress may just end up being DFA’ed). Among those hurlers, Claudio — a 25-year-old southpaw — is likely the one that Texas is least inclined to deal. While he doesn’t record many strikeouts, Claudio allows few free passes and has turned into a groundball monster over the past two seasons. He’s also cheap and controllable for four more seasons. Grant hints that Texas could consider attempting to package Claudio with Yu Darvish if that’d move the needle significantly in the effort to achieve a big return for the star hurler. That could indeed present an intriguing potential package for a team eyeing Darvish, providing a quality and controllable pen lefty to go with the rental starter, though such a swap would no doubt still be tricky to work out.
- Despite prior indications that the Mets would find a taker for Asdrubal Cabrera by the deadline, the team is “way less optimistic” of that possibility today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Indeed, that may well extend to other veterans (beyond those already dealt, of course), per Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). As Sherman explains, hanging onto Cabrera past the deadline doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be traded, as he and other Mets veterans carry large enough salaries (on short enough terms) to clear waivers in August. Of course, making deals after the non-waiver deadline generally means working under additional constraints with reduced leverage. And in the Mets’ case, keeping the veterans would complicate the club’s roster plans.
- The Padres are still telling interested teams they will hold firm on their asking price or wait to deal lefty Brad Hand, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s unsurprising at this point, though perhaps some have believed San Diego would begin to draw back the sticker price on deadline day. So far as has been reported, no teams are ready to hand over the kind of top-tier talent the Pads want for the controllable and excellent southpaw.
- The Twins now seem likely to deal righty Brandon Kintzler as the volume of phone calls increases, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggests on Twitter. The opposite is true of Marlins starter Dan Straily, Feinsand tweets. While Straily continues to be discussed, there hasn’t been any evident traction.
Deadline Chatter: Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Jays, Rangers, Angels
The Marlins “are extremely open to discussing” a Dee Gordon trade, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN (Twitter link). Gordon has been on teams’ radars in recent weeks, but now there’s “not much traffic” regarding the second baseman, per Crasnick. With roughly $41MM coming his way through 2021, the 29-year-old isn’t cheap, nor has he regained the effectiveness he showed from 2014-15. Gordon missed half of 2016 thanks to a performance-enhancing drug suspension and has slashed a meek .282/.323/.347 in 783 plate appearances dating back to last season. He has stolen 67 bases over that time, though, including 30 this year, and drawn plus marks in the field from defensive runs saved (eight) and Ultimate Zone Rating (8.1).
While a Gordon trade before Monday’s deadline may not be in the offing, it seems Marlins reserve catcher A.J. Ellis will switch uniforms. Along with the previously reported Cubs, the Rockies are in on the 36-year-old, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. With a .233/.314/.411 batting line, Rockies catchers have posted the worst wRC+ (45) in the majors this season. They’re looking for help behind the plate as a result, but Ellis hasn’t been a whole lot better than their choices with the bat (.232/.300/.341 in 91 PAs). Defensively, Ellis has had a rough pitch-framing season, per StatCorner, though he has outdone Rockies starter Tony Wolters in that regard. It seems the right-handed-hitting Ellis and the lefty-swinging Wolters would form a platoon.
More as the deadline nears:
- While the Dodgers have come up as a potential landing spot for Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray or Justin Verlander, it appears for now that they’re likelier to acquire an impact reliever than a high-end starter, relays Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). On the subject of the Tigers’ Verlander, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter) that Los Angeles has focused less on him than reliever Justin Wilson in trade talks with Detroit. That isn’t surprising, as Verlander is on an onerous contract and unlikely to move before Monday.
- The Blue Jays were reportedly “highly unlikely” to trade left-hander J.A. Happ as of two weeks ago, but now they’re open to offers, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag. The Jays aren’t aggressively shopping the 34-year-old, however, as he’s in the midst of another fine season and under control next season for a reasonable $13MM salary.
- This season has been a struggle for Rangers first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli, but he’s garnering interest nonetheless, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, who tweets that “teams love him in the clubhouse.” The powerful Napoli has slugged 22 home runs and put up an excellent .258 ISO, though his .208/.287/.466 line through 336 PAs isn’t pretty. But the 35-year-old has gotten hot at the right time, having slashed .260/.329/.658 in 82 PAs this month. Napoli’s on a $6MM salary this year and has an $11MM club option (or a $2.5MM buyout) for 2018.
- Calls have come in on the Angels’ resurgent relief trio of Bud Norris, David Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit, and the Halos are willing to deal all of them, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd broke down their 2017 performances Friday in a piece focusing on available righty relievers.
Tigers Unlikely To Trade Justin Verlander Before Deadline
Barring a “miracle,” Justin Verlander will remain with the Tigers through this Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline, sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the chief sticking point is Verlander’s contract, which pays him $28MM a season through 2019. Potential trade partners “want no part” of that contract, Heyman writes.
I wrote about the complexities of a potential Verlander deal earlier this week, noting Verlander’s contract, age (34) and underwhelming 2017 performance (4.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 124 innings). The Cubs have been the team most frequently connected to Verlander, and they could conceivably afford him, but his contract remains an issue. To facilitate a deal, the Tigers likely would either have to take on a significant portion of the contract, settle for a very modest talent return, or both. In addition, Verlander has a full no-trade clause. Heyman suggests Verlander could clear waivers, making an August trade a possibility, but he’s more likely to be dealt next winter.
Looking For A Match In A Justin Verlander Trade
In recent seasons, the veteran-laden Tigers have frequently headed into the summer as trade deadline buyers, but with a 45-55 record this year and J.D. Martinez already out the door, 2017 looks like a different story. One star who could be on the move is Justin Verlander, who joins a starting pitching market that also includes Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. The Tigers have a variety of other players potentially available, including Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila, and they’ve reportedly discussed package deals, so if the Tigers trade Verlander, it could be along with one or more of his teammates.
That’s not to say a Verlander trade would be easy. It’s impossible to discuss the righty’s potential market without noting his contract — he’s making $28MM per season through 2019, plus a $22MM vesting option for 2020. That option contains no buyout and only vests if Verlander finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2019, but the $66MM or so remaining on Verlander’s contract is still a significant obstacle. At last check, the Tigers did not appear willing to take on a significant portion of Verlander’s deal, though they reportedly would pay the remainder of his 2017 salary. His full no-trade clause could present another potential problem.
And then there’s Verlander’s performance — he finished second in AL Cy Young balloting just last season but has taken a big step backwards this year, with a 4.50 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 124 innings, plus a 4.1 BB/9 that’s almost twice as high as it was in 2016. At 34, that’s a serious concern, particularly when considered alongside his hefty contract. That means the Tigers might not get much if they trade him. Also, his star status in Detroit might not ordinarily be an impediment, but it might be in this case, since, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently pointed out, fans might react poorly to a Verlander deal for a limited return.
With all that in mind, here are a few potential landing spots for Verlander.
Cubs: Even after acquiring Jose Quintana, the Cubs are known to have interest in starting pitching, and Verlander would give them another veteran arm to help them manage the possible losses of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency next winter. They’ve reportedly scouted Verlander and have discussed him with the Tigers, and they’re one of only a handful of teams who clearly could afford him. They’re also reportedly interested in acquiring a catcher, so perhaps there could be a deal involving both Verlander and Avila, particularly since Avila makes a mere $2MM and has been productive this season. The intensity of the Cubs’ interest in Verlander is unclear, and as with all teams, his contract will be an obstacle.
Astros: Houston has been connected to Verlander, along with Wilson, although the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech characterized the Astros’ level of involvement in Verlander trade talks as “minimal.” The team’s recent return to health, with Collin McHugh returning from injury and Dallas Keuchel set to come back this week, might make the Astros more likely to pursue top-end starters rather than innings eaters, since they currently have enough reliable arms to fill out their rotation. Their interest in Verlander, then, might depend on whether they still see him as an ace-type pitcher. Verlander’s contract would of course be a factor as well, although the Astros do appear to have the payroll flexibility to add him, particularly if the Tigers are willing to pay what’s left of his 2017 salary.
Yankees: The Yankees have been connected to a variety of rotation possibilities and could potentially afford Verlander, although their luxury-tax bill is a concern. They haven’t recently been connected to Verlander in particular, though, and based on published reports, seem to have greater interest in Gray. They also have a clear need for another A’s veteran, Yonder Alonso, which might give them further incentive to continue talking with Oakland. Verlander could, however, represent an interesting alternative to Gray whose acquisition likely wouldn’t cost the Yankees top prospects.
Dodgers: L.A. has repeatedly been connected to Darvish, while there haven’t been many indications they’re seriously interested in Verlander. Still, they have an injured ace (Clayton Kershaw), and their seemingly wide-open wallet would give them a big advantage if they decided they had serious interest.
Nationals: The Nats haven’t been strongly connected to Verlander, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently indicated that they aren’t in on Gray or Darvish. Injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross have left them with some rotation questions, however, and they generally aren’t shy about adding big-name players. They’ve also been connected to Wilson.
Brewers: Milwaukee has reportedly shown interest in Verlander, along with other rotation options. The Brewers have also been connected to Wilson and Kinsler, again raising the possibility the Tigers could strike some sort of package deal. And the Brewers under owner Mark Attanasio have never been shy about adding big-name pitching as they’ve prepared for past stretch runs, adding CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke in past seasons in which they contended. All that written, it seems especially unlikely that they would consummate a deal for Verlander. His age and salary could potentially pose big problems for a generally budget-conscious organization (although one with few long-term commitments at the moment). And the Brewers’ 2017 run at the NL Central title, while impressive, has if anything been a pleasant surprise from a team that seemed to be rebuilding. They recently fell into second place, behind the Cubs, and their fade might make them less likely to make a big move.
Rockies: Acquiring Verlander would be a break from the Rockies’ M.O., but they’ve shown interest in rotation upgrades and have limited payroll obligations beyond 2017, so Verlander could theoretically be a fit. They have enough interesting young arms to fill out their rotation, but could potentially benefit from a veteran anchor. Of course, it’s not clear that Verlander is the right veteran anchor for them, given his contract, fly-ball tendencies and sketchy 2017 performance thus far. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would accept a deal that would place him in Coors Field, a stadium that could potentially hurt his future earning power.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have already swung one big trade with the Tigers, and there have at least been whispers about the possibility they could look to improve their rotation. Most current rumors about the Snakes focus on other areas, however, and all five of their current starters have performed capably this year.
Red Sox: Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to headline-grabbing trades, and he was general manager of the Tigers when Detroit drafted Verlander in 2004. With Eduardo Rodriguez‘s recent return to health, though, the Red Sox five healthy starting pitchers who each could potentially pitch well for the remainder of the season, and most rumors about the team since their acquisition of infielder Eduardo Nunez have pertained to relievers, not starters.
Mariners: The M’s have been connected to Gray, and the odds that Jerry Dipoto will find a way to insert them into a significant trade can never fully be discounted. They are, however, below .500 at this point and already have big salaries for Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz on the books for 2018.
Royals: Kansas City has been on the lookout for starting pitching, although the Royals have mostly been connected to lower-tier options like Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia (plus Trevor Cahill, who they already acquired). It would seem extremely unlikely that they’d take on Verlander’s contract, given their uncertain future as an organization and the fact that their 2017 payroll is already the highest they’ve ever had.
Indians: The back of the Indians’ rotation has struggled, although Danny Salazar‘s recent return to health helps them in that regard, and trading for a pitcher with Verlander’s salary would be out of character for them.
Braves: The Braves look like longshots at best to acquire Verlander at the deadline, since they aren’t contending, and they recently traded a veteran arm in Garcia. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would be willing to accept a trade to a below-.500 team. If the Braves do acquire someone of Verlander’s ilk, that might be more likely to happen in the offseason. They’ve been connected to a variety of controllable veteran starters, however, and have enough money coming off the books next year that they could theoretically afford him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.