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Kenta Maeda

Tigers Notes: Maeda, Manning, Hopkins, Garko

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Kenta Maeda made his return to the Tigers rotation this evening. Detroit reinstated the veteran right-hander from the 15-day injured list, optioning Matt Manning to Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding move. Maeda took the ball against the Blue Jays, working five scoreless innings.

Maeda was down for the minimal two weeks after battling an illness. Signed to a two-year free agent deal last offseason, he has struggled to a 5.80 ERA over his first eight starts. His 15.8% strikeout rate is well down from the 27.3% mark he managed during his final season with the Twins. He has also surrendered nine homers over 35 2/3 innings, a lofty 2.27 longballs per nine. Most of the damage has been concentrated over three bad starts. Maeda has given up at least six runs in a trio of outings and no more than three runs in his other five starts.

Despite Maeda’s inconsistency, Detroit has gotten generally solid rotation work. Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty have been anywhere from solid to excellent. Casey Mize has a more pedestrian 4.57 ERA through nine outings. Manning has been the clear #6 option on the depth chart, starting five games around a trio of stints in the minors. He has only managed a 4.88 ERA over five MLB appearances but has a 3.79 mark with a huge 31.6% strikeout rate in 19 Triple-A innings.

While Maeda’s return is the bigger injury news for the Tigers, they did lose a couple depth players this week. The team informed reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) that minor league reliever Blair Calvo and outfielder TJ Hopkins are out for the season. Both players recently underwent surgery to repair labrum tears in their right shoulders.

Calvo and Hopkins each made their big league debuts in 2023, though both players have subsequently been outrighted from the 40-man roster. Calvo made one MLB appearance for the Rockies and had only pitched twice for Detroit’s Double-A affiliate. Hopkins, whom the Tigers claimed off waivers from the Giants in February, appeared in 25 big league contests for the Reds last year. He’d been hitting .190/.326/.329 in Double-A.

The Tigers also announced some off-field news this afternoon. Detroit promoted Ryan Garko from vice president of player development to assistant general manager. The former big league first baseman has worked with the Tigers’ farm system since he was hired in September 2021. He joins Sam Menzin, Jay Sartori and Rob Metzler as assistant GMs. They’re behind baseball operations president Scott Harris and first-year general manager Jeff Greenberg in the front office hierarchy.

Tigers Place Kenta Maeda On 15-Day Injured List

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The Tigers announced this afternoon that they’ve placed right-hander Kenta Maeda on the 15-day injured list with a viral illness. Outfield Akil Baddoo was recalled from Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding move, though Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that right-hander Matt Manning is set to be called up to the majors on Monday to take Maeda’s spot in the rotation.

The start to Maeda’s tenure in Detroit has been a difficult one, as he’s posted a 6.75 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work across seven starts with the club this season. Of those seven starts, the majority of the damage has come in just three of them where the veteran was tagged for a combined 19 runs (18 earned) in just eight total innings of work. Now he’ll get the opportunity to rest up and reset on the injured list while he prepares to try and turn his season around. Maeda’s placement on the shelf is retroactive to May 8, meaning he could hypothetically return to action in less than two weeks. That being said, no timetable for his return has been made available.

Per Petzold, Manning is poised to take the ball against the Marlins on Monday, stepping into Maeda’s usual spot in the rotation. The right-hander was the Tigers’ first-round pick back in 2016 and has logged 48 starts in the majors since he first made his big league debut back in 2021. He struggled to a 5.80 ERA in his rookie season but as looked to be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm when healthy since then, with a 3.59 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.40 FIP in 158 innings of work since then. That includes three starts in the majors this year, during which he’s posted a roughly league average 4.24 ERA with a 23.9% strikeout rate despite a somewhat lackluster 4.40 FIP. He’ll be returning to a rotation that’s gotten incredible performances from its young arms this season. Tarik Skubal’s 1.90 ERA and 2.07 FIP have placed him firmly in the AL Cy Young award conversation through seven starts, while both Casey Mize and Reese Olsen have also impressed to this point in the year with above-average numbers.

Replacing Maeda on the roster for the time being is Baddoo. The 25-year-old had a breakout campaign as a rookie back in 2021 with a .259/.330/.436 slash line in 124 games but has generally struggled at the big league level since then, hitting just .213/.302/.331 in 582 trips to the plate since the start of the 2022 campaign. Baddoo has spent the entire 2024 campaign to this point at the Triple-A level after being squeezed out of the club’s outfield mix by the addition of Mark Canha as well as the emergence of youngsters like Kerry Carpenter, and Riley Greene.

Baddoo has generally been very successful in the minor leagues this year, slashing .257/.366/.478 in 30 games with the club’s affiliate in Toledo. If Baddoo can carry that success forward at the big league level, it’s possible he could force his way back into the club’s outfield mix, where Opening Day center fielder Parker Meadows struggled badly to open the season, opening the door for rookie switch-hitter Wenceel Perez to take over up the middle in recent weeks.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Tigers Sign Kenta Maeda

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November 28: The club has now officially announced the deal, which is frontloaded. Maeda will make $14MM in 2024 and $10MM in 2025. The club’s 40-man roster count is now at 38.

November 26: The Tigers have added some experience to their young rotation, agreeing to sign right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $24MM contract.  Maeda will undergo his physical on Monday, so the deal should be officially announced within the next 24 hours.  Maeda is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Reports emerged earlier this week linking Maeda and the Tigers, though the Twins (Maeda’s former team) maintained interest.  However, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson writes that the Twins only had interest in Maeda on a one-year contract, so moving to a multi-year looks to have sealed the deal for the Tigers.  Minnesota will now have to deal with Maeda as an opponent on a division rival, as Maeda will join the third team of his Major League career as he enters his age-36 season.

With Eduardo Rodriguez possibly leaving Detroit in free agency, Maeda steps in as the veteran presence within a Tigers rotation that is still pretty unseasoned.  Most of the Tigers’ young arms were also set back by injuries during the club’s nightmarish 2022 season, though Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning pitched well when healthy, and Reese Olson stepped up as a legitimate rotation candidate.  At the moment, Maeda looks to be the No. 2 on the staff behind Skubal, with Manning, Olson, and Casey Mize (set to return after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery) looking like the provisional starting five.

This offseason marked the end of the incentive-heavy, eight-year, $25MM deal Maeda signed with the Dodgers back in January 2016, when Maeda first came to the majors from Nippon Professional Baseball.  Maeda’s earning power at the time was somewhat limited due to some concerns over his elbow, though he didn’t have any major arm-related injury issues over four years in Los Angeles before the Dodgers dealt him to the Twins during the 2019-20 offseason.  Maeda responded with an outstanding performance in the pandemic-shortened campaign, posting a 2.70 ERA in 66 2/3 innings and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

With a more modest 4.66 ERA in 106 1/3 frames in 2021, the injury bug then finally bit, as Maeda had to undergo the internal-brace version of Tommy John surgery.  Using the brace theoretically could have reduced Maeda’s time on the injured list, yet he ended up missing the entire 2022 season.  His comeback year in 2023 was also shortened by close to two months by a triceps strain, but the numbers were pretty solid overall when Maeda did take the mound.

Maeda posted a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings for Minnesota.  Both the walk and strikeout rates were well above average, and Maeda wasn’t a high-velocity pitcher even before surgery, so his 90.9mph average was just slightly below his career norm.  Maeda did allow a lot of hard contact last year, which was something of a red flag considering that he very good and occasionally elite at inducing soft contact in the seasons prior to his brace procedure.

Between the hard-contact numbers, Maeda’s age, and injury history, the expectation was that Maeda’s market might be limited to a two-year (or two years with an option) contract this winter.  MLBTR ranked Maeda 25th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a two-year, $36MM pact for the right-hander.  The actual dollar figure will fall below our projection, perhaps suggesting that teams had concerns over Maeda’s ability to stay healthy.  Speculatively, it could also be that Maeda preferred to get a deal done sooner rather than later, perhaps as a nod to the strong interest shown by the Tigers this early in the winter.

There’s no doubt that the righty has a high ceiling of performance when he’s healthy, making the signing a pretty solid move for Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris.  After spending most of his first year in the job in evaluation mode, Harris has started to make some modest but noteworthy expenditures for veteran talent, both in signing Maeda and in trading for Mark Canha earlier this month.  Adding Maeda’s deal puts Detroit’s projected payroll (as per Roster Resource) at only $85.26MM, though Harris has spoken of exercising financial caution in the past, and it isn’t yet clear how much the Tigers are willing to spend this winter.

At the very least, the Tigers have the flexibility to perhaps explore a bigger move should an opportunity present itself, and Maeda’s signing perhaps opens such a door in a unique fashion.  Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press wrote this week that the Tigers were considering Maeda both for the pitcher’s own value and also to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market.”  This is particularly intriguing in the context of Detroit’s interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and if Harris and Tigers ownership were prepared to break the bank on a player, it might be for this circumstance of a 25-year-old Japanese ace who might have up to a decade of prime baseball still ahead of him.

Shota Imanaga is another prominent name coming to the majors from NPB this winter, even if Imanaga is 30 and his ceiling isn’t considered as high as Yamamoto’s.  It is also possible the Tigers might not be done with veteran pitchers from the Major League free agent market, as names like Seth Lugo and Luis Severino are also reportedly on Detroit’s radar as arms available on shorter-term and relatively less-expensive contracts.

An argument could’ve been made for the Twins to issue Maeda a qualifying offer as he entered free agency, yet with Minnesota planning to cut payroll next year, it is easy to see why the Twins might not have wanted to risk Maeda accepting the offer and locking in a $20.325MM salary for 2024.  By not issuing a qualifying offer, Minnesota won’t receive anything in compensation for Maeda’s departure.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link) was the first to report the agreement and the term length, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $24MM figure.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that Maeda’s deal was pending the pass of his physical.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Twins Interested In Kenta Maeda Reunion

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TODAY: Negotiations between Maeda and the Tigers “have intensified in recent days,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).

NOVEMBER 24: Free agent right-hander Kenta Maeda reportedly has “serious” interest from the Tigers but a reunion with the Twins is still possible. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that both the Tigers and Twins are interested in Maeda, though there’s nothing to indicate his market his limited to just those two clubs.

Maeda, 36 in April, has a long track record of being an effective major leaguer, with an earned run average of 3.92 in 190 games dating back to 2016. The last few years have been fairly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows. In 2020, he posted an ERA of 2.70 in 11 starts during the shortened season, finishing second to Shane Bieber in Cy Young voting. But his ERA jumped to 4.66 the next year and he ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John, on his throwing elbow.

He was able to get back on the mound in 2023 and finished the year with a 4.23 ERA, though that figure disguises how good he actually was. In his fourth outing of the year, he was pummelled for 10 earned runs in three innings against the Yankees and went on the injured list due to a triceps strain right after. He returned in June and put up an ERA of 3.36 the rest of the way, striking out 29% of opponents while walking just 7%. Any pitcher will look better if you ignore their worst start but it seems fair to conclude that Maeda wasn’t 100% healthy in that nightmare outing against the Yanks. Despite his age and recent inconsistency, MLBTR predicted he could get a two-year, $36MM contract based on his strong second half and previous track record.

That the Twins are interested in a reunion makes sense on a couple of fronts. At the end of the 2023 campaign, they lost not only Maeda but also Sonny Gray to free agency, subtracting two key pieces from the rotation. Chris Paddack returned from his own Tommy John rehab and could perhaps soften the blow of those departures, but the starting rotation is clearly weaker than it was not too long ago. Paddack should slot in somewhere with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving the club four solid options. Louie Varland had some home run troubles in the majors last year but showed enough potential there and in Triple-A that he could be considered a reasonable fifth starter. But he still has a couple of options and just 94 innings of big league experience to his name, making it sensible to bump him down to the sixth spot.

The club has also generally avoided long-term contracts for free agent pitchers since Derek Falvey took over as the club’s primary baseball decision maker after the 2016 season. They did give a four-year extension to López but the largest contract they’ve given to a pitcher apart from that was the two-year, $20MM deal for Michael Pineda back in 2019. Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high, but Maeda’s age will prevent his market from going too crazy, which would suit the M.O. of the Twins.

It might also work with their specific financial concerns, as uncertainty around their broadcast rights is seemingly going to cause a reduction in payroll. They had an Opening Day payroll of $154MM in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but could potentially wind up in the $125-140MM range in 2024. Roster Resource estimates that they are already at $125MM, which perhaps doesn’t leave a ton of room for an estimated $18MM salary for Maeda. But they also have a potential surplus of position players and could perhaps free up some extra cash that way.

Jorge Polanco is making $10.5MM in 2024, with a $750K buyout on a 2025 club option. Max Kepler is making $10MM and is slated for free agency after. Christian Vázquez has two years and $20MM left on his deal. Kyle Farmer is projected for a salary of $6.6MM in his final arbitration season. Those players have all either been in trade rumors or speculated as candidates, with the club having enough position player talent to theoretically move someone and still have a strong core. If the club ends up flipping one or more of these guys, it becomes easier to see them fitting Maeda into the budget.

Ultimately, Maeda is probably just one of many options the Twins are considering. Similarly, while the Tigers and Twins have been specifically connected to Maeda, it seems fair to expect that there are far more clubs at the table. The fierce competition for rotation help has led to roughly half the league reportedly checking in on pitchers from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Seth Lugo, while even Noah Syndergaard is drawing interest despite a nightmare season in 2023.

How Aggressive Will The Tigers Be This Winter?

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The ill-fated Miguel Cabrera extension is off the books in Detroit, leading to the most payroll flexibility the team has had in quite some time. As it stands, the only three players on guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season are Javier Baez, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. That trio combines for $40MM in guaranteed salary. Only Baez is signed beyond the 2024 season. Detroit also has a small arbitration class. Left-hander Tarik Skubal, righty Casey Mize, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Akil Baddoo project to earn a combined $7.5MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”

Tigers Showing “Serious” Interest In Kenta Maeda

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The Tigers have “serious” interest in free agent righty Kenta Maeda, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The club views him as a possible veteran stabilizer for a young rotation and also hopes a potential Maeda deal would help to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market” in the future, Petzold writes.

Following Eduardo Rodriguez’s decision to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, Detroit’s starting staff currently projects to include Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Righty Sawyer Gipson-Long, 26 next month, posted solid results in his first four MLB starts last year but struggled in Triple-A as well. Relievers Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo have all made starts in the majors but struggled in a rotation role. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mason Englert, survived the season on the 40-man roster but could head to Triple-A to begin the year. No one else on the Tigers’ 40-man roster has meaningful experience as a starter in the Majors.

Some form of veteran pickup is needed, and Maeda somewhat quietly had a stronger season than many realize in 2023. This past season was the veteran righty’s first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and he gave the Twins 104 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk rates  of 27.3% and 6.5%, respectively.

However, Maeda’s end-of-season numbers are perhaps disproportionately impacted by one catastrophic start. On April 26, with the Twins playing host to the Red Sox, Maeda was shelled for 10 runs in just three innings. He landed on the injured list immediately after that outing and wound up missing nearly two months due to a triceps strain. That day’s 89 mph average fastball was his lowest of the entire season. It seems fair to presume that he was not pitching at close to full strength that afternoon.

Maeda’s return from the injured list included five shutout frames against the same Tigers who are now showing interest in him, and from that point forth he was one of the league’s more effective starters. In his final 88 1/3 innings, Maeda turned in a sharp 3.36 earned run average while fanning a hefty 29% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. He’s still a soft-tosser by today’s standards, but the 91.2 mph he averaged on his heater following his return from the injured list is still 2.2 mph faster than the 89 he averaged in that meltdown against the Yankees. Maeda also averaged 5 2/3 innings per start down the stretch, showing a bit more ability to work through a lineup than many of the five-inning arms that populate today’s rotations.

It’s been generally quiet thus far on the Maeda front, with few teams prominently linked to the 35-year-old righty. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said after the season that he wouldn’t rule out reunions with any of his team’s free agents, Maeda included, but Minnesota is also expected to trim payroll by $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding the team’s future television rights. Trades of Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and/or Christian Vazquez could create some extra leeway for Minnesota to pursue a reunion with Maeda, but there’s no indication it’s a serious consideration at this time.

Despite the lack of chatter surrounding Maeda to this point, however, he figures to draw wide-reaching interest. Beyond the excellent run following his triceps injury this season, the righty was the runner-up finisher in 2020 American League Cy Young voting and has long since established himself as a viable mid-rotation presence. In 866 1/3 career big league innings between the Dodgers and Twins, Maeda sports a 3.92 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. His postseason resume includes another 41 2/3 frames of 3.24 ERA ball.

As for the Tigers, there’s virtually no free agent they can’t pursue from a purely financial standpoint. Javier Baez is the only player on a guaranteed contract beyond the 2024 season, and next year’s payroll currently projects at $74MM. That’s nowhere near 2017’s franchise-record $200MM Opening Day payroll, and while that outlay was committed under the late Mike Ilitch, even under his successor and son Chris, the Tigers have trotted out a payroll as high as $135MM (2021).

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

AL Central Notes: Francona, Twins, Tigers

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The first 20,000 fans in attendance at Wednesday’s Guardians home game against the Reds will receive “Thank You, Tito” t-shirts, to commemorate what is very likely Terry Francona’s final home game as the Guards’ manager.  It isn’t much of a secret that Francona is planning to retire after the season, though he has stopped short of making an official announcement since “he would rather execute an Irish exit than attract one extra iota of attention,” the Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Meisel’s piece is an excellent profile of Francona’s long career as a manager, coach, and player, providing plenty of insight and colorful anecdotes into one of baseball’s greatest skippers.

Here’s more from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins will use Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray (in an order to be determined) as the starters of their first two playoff games, manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters.  Baldelli didn’t confirm any of Minnesota’s other pitching plans for October, but in implying that Kenta Maeda will be working as a reliever during the postseason, that would seem to set up Joe Ryan as the team’s top choice as a third starter.  Ryan has a 3.82 ERA over 30 2/3 innings since returning from the injured list, as trying to pitch through a groin strain contributed to some very shaky numbers for Ryan in midseason after an outstanding April and May.  Maeda has had a strong season in his own right and hasn’t worked as a reliever since 2019, but his usage out of the bullpen gives the Twins a potential impact reliever for their playoff run.
  • Tigers prospect Jace Jung has played only second base and DH during his two pro seasons, but he’ll now be getting some looks as a third baseman in the Arizona Fall League, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes.  Both MLB Pipeline (67th) and Baseball America (98th) rank Jung among the top 100 prospects in baseball, though both outlets have concerns about his eventual defensive future, as second base was seen as a less-challenging spot for Jung than the hot corner.  However, an even more highly-touted Detroit prospect faces similar defensive questions, as Colt Keith (18th BA, 25th Pipeline) looks ticketed for second base duty.  Keith gets the priority because he has posted big numbers at Triple-A this second and could factor into Detroit’s lineup as early as Opening Day 2024, while Jung might need more time to get acclimated at his new position and has yet to reach Triple-A.  Keith and Jung are two of several intriguing position-player prospects coming up the ranks in the Tigers’ farm system, to the point that Henning feels a possible logjam for future playing time gives the Tigers a good problem to have in figuring out who plays where, and ultimately might players might be kept or used as trade chips.
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