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Kenta Maeda

Cafardo On Orioles, Bruce, Red Sox, Maeda

By Zachary Links | March 6, 2016 at 8:54am CDT

In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wonders where James Loney might fit in with the Rays this year.  The veteran is currently behind the platoon of Steve Pearce and Logan Morrison at first and he’s also blocked at DH and left field by Corey Dickerson and Desmond Jennings, respectively.  With a salary of $8MM, the Rays have been unable to find a taker for Loney via trade, though they are willing to eat some of that money to facilitate a deal.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • The Orioles are still considering a deal for Reds outfielder Jay Bruce as they try to bolster their lineup in March.  The O’s are also considering Austin Jackson, but Bruce could be considered the better fit thanks to his power.  Bruce will make $12.5MM in 2016, plus a $1MM buyout or a $13MM option in 2017, which isn’t exactly chump change.  Also, even though Bruce has some excellent campaigns on his resume, his play over the past two seasons hasn’t been all that strong.
  • One NL exec says a few teams have ID’d Red Sox catcher Ryan Hanigan as a possible trade target this summer.  Red Sox officials have said that it’s unlikely they would part with Hanigan due to the inexperience of Blake Swihart and fellow youngster Christian Vazquez.  However, rival officials aren’t sold on that and believe that Hanigan could be more available than Boston is letting on.  Hanigan has a $3.7MM salary for 2016 with an option for 2017.
  • Can new Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda be effective in his first MLB season?  One scout who watched him throw in Japan isn’t so sure.  “His stuff isn’t as good as [Masahiro] Tanaka and he’s more a middle to end of the rotation type of guy,” said the scout. “I don’t know how his fastball plays in the big leagues. I think he’s got the secondary pitches, but the quality of hitters he’ll face may be a challenge at first.”  The Dodgers will be without Brett Anderson for the next three to five months, so they are certainly hoping that Maeda can hit the ground running.
  • Agent Randy Rowley tells Cafardo that Justin Masterson will throw a bullpen session for several teams towards the end of March.
  • The trade sending John Ryan Murphy to the Twins in exchange for outfielder Aaron Hicks was “the best pure baseball deal of the offseason,” in the opinion of one official who spoke with Cafardo.  That official, Cafardo notes, was not involved in the swap in any way.  Hicks, a defensive specialist, posted a .256/.323/.398 batting line in 2015 and added 13 steals, numbers that made him a little more attractive to the Bombers.  The Twins, meanwhile, got themselves an upgrade behind the plate in the wake of Kurt Suzuki’s struggles.
  • Free agent outfielder Grady Sizemore hasn’t received much interest to date.  The veteran spent the second half of last season with the Rays.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins Aaron Hicks Austin Jackson Grady Sizemore James Loney Jay Bruce Justin Masterson Kenta Maeda Ryan Hanigan

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Dodgers Notes: Seager, Maeda, Turner, Guerrero

By | March 5, 2016 at 8:55pm CDT

Corey Seager has the eighth highest trade value in baseball, opines Sports Illustrated’s Jonah Keri in his annual review of the top assets in the sport. In recent years, Seager was a popular trade target for teams attempting to sell veterans to the Dodgers. For example, their decision to keep Seager rather than trade him (and others) for former Phillies ace Cole Hamels already looks brilliant. Hamels was ranked 39th last year and fell out of the top 50 this year. While nobody would argue that Seager is better than Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (ranked 21), his superior contract situation and youth make him a superior long term bet. Top pitching prospect Julio Urias (43rd) also made the list.

Here’s more from the Dodgers:

  • Japanese import Kenta Maeda made his Cactus League debut today, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. His performance today (he did well) is hardly relevant, but Maeda has already taken on an important role in the team’s success. With Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy set to miss chunks of the 2016 season, the Dodgers’ pitching depth will be tested. Maeda’s performance will help to determine how the favored Dodgers perform in a wide open NL West.
  • Third baseman Justin Turner may return to game action as early as next week, writes Gurnick. Manager Dave Roberts would ease him back, using him as the designated hitter for a time. Turner had microfracture surgery over the offseason. A return to action next week would put him well ahead of the usual recovery timeline. Players like Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore had to ease back in to regular reps over a long period of time, although Turner’s specific situation may differ from theirs.
  • One of Turner’s third base backups, Alex Guerrero, has been sidelined with a sore left knee, per Gurnick. The team does not believe the injury is serious, and they have not even ordered tests. The Dodgers have struggled to find Guerrero a regular role due to poor defensive chops at second base and an inconsistent bat. Should Turner and Guerrero both miss time, options to fill in at third include Howie Kendrick and Chase Utley.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Corey Seager Julio Urias Justin Turner Kenta Maeda

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Dodgers Sign Kenta Maeda

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2016 at 3:18pm CDT

JAN. 13: Maeda will earn a base of $3MM in each of the eight seasons of his contract and can earn an additional $8.15MM per year beyond that sum, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (links to Twitter). Maeda’s yearly bonuses kick in at 90 innings pitched, per Passan. From that point forth, he’ll earn $250K for every 10 innings up until 200 innings, according to the report. Maeda will also earn $1MM upon making his 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th and 32nd starts each season. Passan’s report leaves $150K of bonuses each year unaccounted for, so there are a few final missing details to Maeda’s exact contract structure. Ultimately, the contract can max out at a total of $90.2MM over eight seasons.

JAN. 7: The Dodgers have added another significant pitcher, officially signing star Japanese righty Kenta Maeda. It’s quite an unusual contract for the Wasserman Media Group client, whose physical reportedly revealed some issues that could cause health problems down the line.

Maeda, 28, will reportedly receive only a $25MM guarantee over a lengthy eight-year term. Los Angeles will also pay a $20MM posting fee to Maeda’s former NPB club, the Hiroshima Carp. Maeda can also earn up to $10MM annually through incentives tied to the number and length of his starts, maxing out the annual potential at around thirty games started and 200 innings pitched. In the event that all the incentives are triggered, then, the deal’s total value could top $100MM.

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Notably, Maeda won’t have the ability to capture upside through other means. Per reports, he can’t opt into arbitration when he reaches sufficient service time and won’t have any opt-out opportunities that would put him onto the open market.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes tabbed Maeda with the 14th-highest earning power coming into the winter in his list of the top fifty free agents. Dierkes predicted Maeda would earn about $60MM (plus the release fee) over five years, matching the overall estimated commitments for Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake. (Both have indeed agreed to five-year deals, with Samardzija getting $90MM and Leake landing at the predicted value.)

Los Angeles has moved to add arms after losing Zack Greinke to the division-rival Diamondbacks and then blowing up a deal with Hisashi Iwakuma after a physical. The club already inked Scott Kazmir yesterday, though that created a rare imbalance, with southpaws Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, and Alex Wood set to be joined by fellow lefty Hyun-jin Ryu when he returns from injury.

Adding Maeda would figure to bump one of those left-handers to the pen — if it doesn’t create some impetus toward a trade. Brandon McCarthy is also set to return from Tommy John surgery at some point during the year, and the organization has depth options in Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, and others. Wood looks like the most likely trade piece, and he could conceivably be packaged with a variety of L.A.’s other interesting assets.

There’s no disputing the quality of Maeda’s work in Japan. Last year’s 2.09 ERA was more or less typical for the veteran righty, as he’s yet to allow over 2.60 earned in any of the last six seasons. While he doesn’t quite have the peripherals or the scouting hype that Masahiro Tanaka did when he came over, Maeda has long been viewed as a MLB-caliber arm.

Certainly, the successful transition of top NPB arms like Tanaka and Yu Darvish — among others before them — reduces the uncertainty regarding Maeda. He’s often been referred to as something of an injury risk, given his small stature, but Maeda has only missed a few starts and has averaged right around two hundred frames annually since becoming a full-time starter.

Maeda is also said to be showing new life with his secondary offerings, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently wrote. Per Badler, the righty has shown a new-look changeup that may have surpassed his slider as his best offspeed pitch. While he’s not overpowering in terms of velocity, Maeda has excellent control (1.9 BB/9 in his career) and would obviously hold even more appeal with two swing-and-miss offerings.

Christopher Meola reported the signing on Twitter, as well as its essential contract terms (links to Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the precise guarantee (in a tweet), the annual incentive value, and the “red flags” that drove the deal’s unusual structure (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick first noted the issues in the physical (via Twitter).Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (here and here) and J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group (in a tweet) had additional contract details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Kenta Maeda

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Rosenthal On Nats, Chen, Maeda, Davis, Orioles

By Steve Adams | January 8, 2016 at 9:09am CDT

In his latest notes column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks strongly considered a swap that would’ve sent center fielder Ender Inciarte to the Nationals in exchange for lefty Gio Gonzalez. While such a scenario is no longer a possibility — Inciarte went to the Braves along with two other highly regarded pieces in exchange for Shelby Miller, and Gonzalez makes little sense for a rebuilding Atlanta club — Rosenthal notes that the Nats could still explore similar possibilities. Moving Gonzalez for a center field option and then signing Wei-Yin Chen, to whom the Nats have previously been linked, could give the team the left-handed-hitting center field option it desires without significantly weakening the rotation. It’s also worth noting that Washington has been linked to the Rockies in the past, who have a left-handed hitting center field option in the form of Charlie Blackmon, though GM Mike Rizzo figures to explore many avenues if that route is indeed on the table.

A few more notes from Rosenthal’s latest column…

  • Rizzo has repeatedly stated that he’s not interested in trading Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen unless he receives a nice return, but sources tell Rosenthal that the Nationals are indeed trying to move both of the right-handers. The Nats would likely need additional bullpen help were they to move either pitcher, though as Rosenthal points out, right-hander Tyler Clippard is still available in free agency, and a reunion between the two sides could make some sense. The Dodgers “figure to be” one club that will check in with the Nationals regarding Storen, Rosenthal writes.
  • The specific irregularities in Kenta Maeda’s elbow remain unknown, but the Dodgers’ $25MM guarantee with $10MM worth of annual incentives is a reflection of the team’s acknowledgment that he may require surgery over the deal. According to Rosenthal, the bonuses at the back end of the deal are “largely unattainable,” so even though the contract can max out at $105MM over eight years, it’s unlikely that Maeda will receive such a sum. The elbow issue was known to every team that requested Maeda’s medical information, as it turned up in an MRI taken at the urge of his representatives with the Wasserman Media Group. Per Rosenthal, Maeda is presently asymptomatic and pain-free when he pitches.
  • The Orioles have been debating moving on from Chris Davis for about a month, but the team remains engaged with the slugging first baseman due to owner Peter Angelos’ affinity for Davis. If Baltimore does ultimately move on to alternatives, Yoenis Cespedes is a more likely target for the team than Justin Upton, as Cespedes wouldn’t require the O’s to part with a draft pick.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals Chris Davis Drew Storen Ender Inciarte Gio Gonzalez Jonathan Papelbon Justin Upton Kenta Maeda Tyler Clippard Wei-Yin Chen Yoenis Cespedes

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NL West Notes: Span, Giants, Maeda, Parra, Rea

By Jeff Todd | January 8, 2016 at 12:27am CDT

The Giants expect to install Denard Span in center field and at the top of the lineup, pushing Angel Pagan to left, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes, Having added Span, moreover, San Francisco appears not to be involved in the rest of the outfield market, according to Baggarly (via Twitter). Indeed, it’s not even clear that the team was looking elsewhere recently. Though Jon Morosi of FOX Sports had tweeted yesterday that the club was interested in Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, Bob Nightengale of USA Today said after the Span signing (via Twitter) that the organization “never considered” a long-term arrangement with either player before locking up Span.

Here’s more from the NL West:

  • While all involved acknowledged that the MRI results led to Kenta Maeda signing a lighter-than-expected deal with the Dodgers, club president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the righty is “totally asymptomatic,” as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). The concerning results were not discovered during a team physical after a deal, Shaikin adds, but were apparent from the medicals submitted by Maeda to all MLB teams — which may explain why his market was so quiet.
  • The Rockies are “making a push” for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter, though they aren’t alone. He previously noted Colorado’s interest, which would seem to make the most sense if the club is prepared to ship out one of its current starting outfielders.
  • Padres righty Colin Rea moved quickly to reach the majors last year, and MLB.com’s Corey Brock writes that he’s looking forward to competing for a rotation spot this spring. Rea, 25, did end up being shutdown with elbow/forearm soreness, though he says that was precautionary.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Angel Pagan Denard Span Gerardo Parra Kenta Maeda

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West Notes: Reyes, Maeda, Kazmir, Fowler

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2016 at 10:31am CDT

An MLB source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that there is still no timeline regarding possible disciplinary action against Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. (Twitter link.) That appears to be due, at least in part, to the fact that the criminal proceedings have not been wrapped up. While the league’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal action for the commissioner to impose punishment, there is arguably less cause to move swiftly given that the allegations arose during the offseason.

  • The Astros made a play for Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda before he reached agreement with the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston remains an interesting potential factor in the free agent market. While the team probably does not need to make a splash, it is not difficult to imagine the team emerging as a dark horse for several players.
  • Houston was also said to have had interest in retaining Scott Kazmir before he decided to join the Dodgers, and it appears they were far from alone in that regard. The veteran lefty said that a dozen clubs had at least some communication with his camp this winter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.
  • The fact that free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler appeared at a Golden State Warriors game recently should not be interpreted as a sign he’s about to sign with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets. He hears that “nothing is cooking” between Fowler and the club at this time. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Chris Haft looks at the fit of some of San Francisco’s possible outfield targets.
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Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants Dexter Fowler Jose Reyes Kenta Maeda Scott Kazmir

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International Notes: Kim, Maeda, Rodriguez, Sierra

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2016 at 7:11pm CDT

New Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim told reporters at a press conference in Seoul, South Korea that he wants to finish his career in the Major Leagues, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News writes. “I want to do well and retire in the U.S. before coming back to South Korea,” Kim said to the media. “If I return here before then, it would mean I’m no longer desirable to U.S. teams. I’d consider myself a loser if I take a U-turn to the Korean baseball league.” It’s understandable that Kim would set lofty expectations for himself after dominating the KBO over the past decade. In 10 professional seasons, Kim is a .318/.408/.488 hitter, and the 27-year-old enjoyed arguably his best season in 2015 when he belted a career-best 28 homers with the second-highest OPS (.979) of his career. Kim said he most looks forward to facing David Price — a pitcher he greatly respects — and is excited for the challenge of facing greater velocity throughout the league in American ball.

Here are a few more notes on the international market…

  • Eric Longenhagen breaks down a number of international players in an excellent piece for ESPN (Insider subscription required and recommended), including right-hander Kenta Maeda, who reportedly reached an agreement with the Dodgers on New Year’s Eve. Per Longenhagen, Maeda has an 87-92 mph fastball that can scrape a bit higher on the radar gun at times, though as he notes, we’re unlikely to see more velocity out of Maeda now that he’s pitching every fifth day instead of once a week. Maeda also features a slider, changeup, cutter and curveball, with the former two pitches being above-average to plus and the latter two being fringe offerings at best. Longenhagen opines that Maeda has a fifth starter’s arsenal that will play up to a No. 4 type of starter due to his control and pitch sequencing. He adds that while durability may be a factor — Maeda has 1500 pro innings under his belt at just 28 years of age — the Dodgers have quite a bit of rotation depth to make it through the upcoming season (even if several others arms are question marks themselves).
  • While Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez has not yet been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he’s “poised to sign” with Cincinnati upon clearance, per Longenhagen. Rodriguez probably won’t sign until after July 2, so his bonus will count against Cincinnati’s 2016-17 pool rather than its 2015-16 pool. The 21-year-old Rodriguez is said by Longenhagen to be a premier defender with enough speed to wreak havoc on the bases but little pop in his bat. Longenhagen writes that he could profile as a regular due to his glove and speed, though probably one that hits near the bottom of the order.
  • Part of the reason for Yaisel Sierra’s recent showcase was that he’s yet to receive a good offer from teams, Longenhagen hears. He calls Sierra a “good-bodied, two-pitch 24-year-old,” noting that many clubs see him as a middle reliever but some feel he could develop into a No. 4 type of arm with more reps. The best fit for Sierra, in Longenhagen’s estimation, is a rebuilding team that can afford to make a strong offer and patiently try to develop the hard-throwing righty as a starter.
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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Alfredo Rodriguez Hyun-soo Kim Kenta Maeda Yaisel Sierra

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Heyman On Cespedes, Parra, Davis

By Zachary Links | December 31, 2015 at 2:03pm CDT

There could be more great star free agents still available as we head into the New Year than ever before, in the estimation of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. The question now is – where will they land?  Here’s the latest from Heyman:

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he’s not going to make a major free agent splash between now and Opening Day, but Heyman hears that the Halos have been in contact with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and perhaps Alex Gordon as well.  It’s not clear how serious they are about signing one of the three, however.
  • Gerardo Parra is said to have “seven or eight” teams in on him and the Rockies are in “serious” pursuit.  Colorado has been considering trades involving Carlos Gonzalez and their other outfielders, so a Parra signing could be a part of a serious outfield overhaul for them.  Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season.  The Royals are also known to have interest.
  • When asked about free agent slugger Chris Davis, one person connected to the Astros said the player is “not in our plans.”  Davis would be a strong fit for Houston, in theory, but he is out of their price range.  The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he has led the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
  • When approached, the Yankees asked the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Andrew Miller, and Houston quickly rebuffed that attempt.  The Yankees are seeking a No. 1 pitcher in order to part with Miller, so it seems unlikely that he’ll go anywhere.
  • Word is that new Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to serve a lengthy suspension for his alleged domestic violence incident.  Heyman reasons that the Bombers wouldn’t have made the deal if they felt that Chapman was in store for a long ban.
  • The Padres still need a shortstop but one person with Padres connections wondered whether an investment of  “$60MM to $70MM” (his estimate) made sense for them given that they are not expected to contend this year. However, Heyman notes that president Mike Dee and GM A.J. Preller are aggressive and they might not want to pass up on the chance to ink a player like Desmond at a sensible number.  Heyman also IDs the Rockies and White Sox as dark horse teams for Desmond.
  • The Cardinals were another club that downplayed the possibility of a major move, but GM John Mozeliak went out and signed Mike Leake after publicly stating that he wasn’t going to make any “dynamic” moves.  Could they have another significant move in store?  Heyman has heard buzz that the Cards may also be looking again at a big bat at first or in the outfield.
  • When asked about the possibility of Cespedes, one Nationals-connected person said, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.”  That doesn’t make a signing likely by any means, but it also doesn’t rule out a pursuit.
  • There are still “about six to seven teams involved” when it comes to Cespedes, Heyman writes.
  • The Dodgers are still looking around after signing Scott Kazmir, so they are not out on Japanese star Kenta Maeda.  The Yankees, meanwhile, can be crossed off the list as they are not interested.  Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better.
  • Marlins president president David Samson contends that owner Jeffrey Loria still has “no interest” in selling the club.
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Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Yankees San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Alex Gordon Aroldis Chapman Chris Davis Gerardo Parra Ian Desmond Justin Upton Kenta Maeda Yoenis Cespedes

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West Notes: Henderson, M’s, Black, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | December 27, 2015 at 7:36pm CDT

The baseball world is mourning the loss of former All-Star outfielder Dave Henderson, who passed away this morning at age 57.  “Hendu” played for five teams over his 14-year career, including six years each with the Mariners and Athletics.  He was the first draft pick in Mariners franchise history and spent a decade as an M’s color commentator on TV and radio after his retirement.  The slugger was a member of the Oakland teams that won three straight AL pennants from 1988-90 and captured the 1989 World Series, and Henderson played a big role in that championship with a 1.129 OPS over 39 postseason plate appearances.  Of course, Henderson’s most famous playoff moment came in Game Five of the 1986 ALCS as a member of the Red Sox, when he hit a dramatic two-run homer (with two outs and two strikes on him) in the ninth inning to temporarily put Boston ahead, and Henderson then drove in the game’s winning run in the 11th on a sac fly.  That victory saved the Red Sox from elimination and sparked an unlikely comeback, as they then beat the Angels in Games Six and Seven to win the pennant.

“Hendu played just two seasons in Boston, but we always regarded him as one of us, and are grateful for the time we were able to enjoy his talent and infectious personality,” Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said in an official statement from the club.  “Everywhere he went, Henderson made friends. He was a great ambassador for our game, and we have lost him far too soon.”

We at MLBTR send our condolences to Henderson’s family and countless friends around the game.  Here are some news items from around the West divisions…

  • It’s a lot easier to win when your team has a high payroll (and/or a wealth of controllable young talent), and as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes, the Mariners are in something of a difficult spot since they’re a consistent mid-range payroll team that has a big chunk of their spending tied up in a handful of star contracts.  If the M’s aren’t willing to spend more, Baker notes, then GM Jerry Dipoto will be doubly challenged to find affordable young pieces to fit around those core stars.  Given Dipoto’s very busy offseason, it’s hard to say he hasn’t been trying to fulfill that exact goal.
  • Giants right-handed pitching prospect Ray Black turned a lot of heads in the Arizona Fall League, Andy Baggarly writes in a subscription-only piece for Baseball America.  Black’s fastball topped out at a whopping 104mph in AFL play and he also possesses (perhaps anecdotally) a 98mph changeup.  Black, 25, was a seventh-rounder for the Giants in the 2011 draft who has battled a variety of injuries and didn’t being his pro career until 2014.  Black has a 3.28 ERA over 60 1/3 minor league innings, exhibiting both some shaky control (6.1 BB/9) and overwhelming strikeout power (18.2 K/9).
  • The Dodgers have been linked to both Wei-Yin Chen and Kenta Maeda in free agency rumors, and Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times looks at the pros and cons for the club of signing either pitcher.  Whatever choice the team makes (if it goes with either starter), Dilbeck thinks the Dodgers need to address their rotation after falling short on a number of offseason pitching targets.
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Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

By Mark Polishuk | December 26, 2015 at 10:51pm CDT

In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Dexter Fowler Ian Kennedy Kenta Maeda Scott Kazmir Wei-Yin Chen

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