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Kenta Maeda

Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

Rosenthal On Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals

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After discussing the Mets’ budget-conscious offseason spending thus far — and questioning the team’s choice of an apparently conservative route after a run to the World Series last year — Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports runs through a variety of notes from around the league. Here are some highlights:

  • Even as the Dodgers pursue Kenta Maeda, the team is continuing to show interest in Scott Kazmir, per Rosenthal — despite an already heavily left-handed rotation. And there is some sentiment among rival executives that L.A. could make a play for yet another southpaw, Wei-Yin Chen.
  • The Giants remain unlikely to play at the top of the free agent outfield market, according to the report, but might look at the next level down. Two names in play are Dexter Fowler and Gerardo Parra, with another possibility being the addition of a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Gregor Blanco. San Francisco is also in communication with the Rockies on their outfielders, Rosenthal’s colleague Jon Morosi reports.
  • The Cardinals did not sign Mike Leake with intentions of spinning off another starter for outfield help, says Rosenthal. As he notes in another post, signing Leake — while allowing John Lackey to walk — came with some draft benefits, as the club didn’t have to sacrifice a pick to add the former and will gain a selection for losing the latter.

Latest On Kenta Maeda

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2:13pm: The Dodgers are interested in Maeda and are maintaining contact with his representatives in advance of the January 8th deadline, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

12:35pm: The deadline for an MLB team to sign Kenta Maeda is January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  Meanwhile, MLBTR has learned that the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have set the release fee at $20MM, the maximum allowed by the agreement between MLB and NPB.  Any team willing to meet that $20MM asking price will have the right to negotiate with Maeda over the next couple of weeks.

The question now is, which teams will be making a serious run at Maeda?  We learned recently that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.  The Padres will not be in the mix, despite sending a number of club officials to Japan in November.  The Cardinals looked to be one possibility, but they’re probably not considering the Japanese star after inking Mike Leake to a five-year, $80MM deal.

The Dodgers would appear to be a solid fit for Maeda after losing Zack Greinke to free agency and tearing up their agreement with Hisashi Iwaukma.  They have been expected to be among the teams in the hunt for the right-hander, but there hasn’t been any definitive word on that as of late.

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecasted a five-year, $60MM deal for Maeda this winter.  When factoring in a release fee of $20MM, that amounts to an $80MM commitment overall.

Rosenthal On Kazmir, A’s, Fernandez, Dodgers

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Re-signing Alex Gordon would help the Royals hedge against other stars possible leaving in the future, but that commitment could also take away the money needed to keep them, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes.  Five notable members of the defending World Champs – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Wade Davis – can hit the open market after the 2017 season.  All five can be costly for KC and that is certainly a consideration for the club as they weigh the Gordon situation.

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • The A’s one-year, $4.25MM deal with Henderson Alvarez takes them out of the mix for free agent Scott Kazmir, sources tell Rosenthal.  Alvarez will now compete for a spot in Oakland’s rotation with right-handers Jesse Hahn and Jarrod Parker and left-hander Sean Manaea.  On Monday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale identified the A’s as a finalist for Kazmir alongside the Royals, Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals, and Astros.  Kazmir, 32 in January, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland.
  • The Dodgers are staying in touch with the Marlins on Jose Fernandez, but it’s still hard to see a deal taking place, Rosenthal writes.  Unfortunately for the Dodgers and other teams after the young ace, the Marlins’ expectations for a return packing only got higher after the Shelby Miller trade, sources tell Rosenthal.  Of course, that’s saying a lot since the bar has been set high all winter.  high expectations from the start.  Conversely, teams are concerned about how many innings Fernandez will pitch in 2016 and beyond. “Makes it hard to price it correctly for both sides,” one source with knowledge of the Dodgers/Marlins talks said.  For his career, Fernandez has posted a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.  There’s little question that he’s one of the game’s most effective starters, with his low cost and youth making him one of the most intriguing assets in baseball.
  • The Padres sent several club officials to Japan in November, but they won’t be a serious player for right-hander Kenta Maeda, sources tell Rosenthal.  The Padres went to Japan in order to “introduce themselves in a market where they previously had only a minimal presence,” Rosenthal writes, but apparently they were not gunning hard for the Hiroshima Carp star.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Frazier, Turner

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Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda has traveled to Los Angeles to start meeting with teams, according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).  The Dodgers, he adds, are expected to be among the clubs that place a bid in order to negotiate with the right-hander.

If the Dodgers are serious about making a run at the Hiroshima Carp star, they might find that the market for him isn’t as competitive as it might have been a few weeks ago.  We learned last week that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price.  At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto.

Here’s more out of L.A.:

  • Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters, including Shaikin (Twitter link) that he didn’t land Todd Frazier himself because he wanted Justin Turner to remain at third base.  Acquiring Frazier and putting him elsewhere on the diamond would have been “messy,” in Friedman’s estimation.  Frazier, of course, went to the White Sox in Wednesday’s three-way deal involving the Reds and Dodgers.
  • Friedman says that the Dodgers like the newly-acquired Frankie Montas as a starting pitcher and, if not, they see him as an “impact bullpen arm,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.  Many scouts see Montas as a power reliever.     Friedman says that his scouts believe that Montas has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the minors, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets.
  • Friedman said he knows some teams are interested in the players he acquired today, but he cautioned that one trade is not necessarily precursor to another, Shaikin tweets.  Still, when asked if he’s now more comfortable with the idea of parting with elite pitching prospects, Friedman answered in the affirmative (link).
  • In an interview on KLAC, Friedman did acknowledge that the trade improves the team’s “trade capital to match up with other teams,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register (on Twitter).

Starting Pitching Notes: Maeda, Angels, A’s

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The Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda, a source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. While Maeda at one point looked like a possibly intriguing target for Boston, the team has plenty of mid-rotation options beyond ace David Price and probably won’t seek to add another, Bradford writes. Earlier Tuesday night, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR’s Zach Links that his team is having internal discussions about Maeda, though John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle hears that a match between the two sides is “unlikely.” Here are more notes on the starting pitching market.

  • The Athletics are hunting for a “No. 2” type of pitcher, Joe Stiglich of Comcast SportsNet California tweets. Manager Bob Melvin says the team is looking at veterans to fill that role. The A’s have recently been connected to free agent and former Athletic Scott Kazmir, who would certainly fill the bill as a veteran No. 2 starter.
  • The Angels are willing to trade not only C.J. Wilson (as was reported Monday), but also Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets. Of the three, Santiago has attracted the most attention, Sullivan’s colleague Alden Gonzalez tweets. Teams want the Angels to eat at least $15MM of the remaining $20MM on Wilson’s contract, which Gonzalez suggests is “too much.” Santiago, though, is effective as well as relatively young and cheap — MLBTR projects he’ll make $5.1MM next season, a very reasonable sum for a pitcher who threw 180 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA in 2015. One might think Shoemaker would also be an attractive target — his ERA last season was a run higher than Santiago’s, but his peripherals (7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) were solid, and he’ll be making the league minimum again next season.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

 

NL Central Notes: Chapman, Cubs, Pirates

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The domestic violence allegations against closer Aroldis Chapman will likely make it very difficult for the Reds to trade him, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Police records indicate that, in late October, Chapman allegedly choked his girlfriend, shoved her against a wall and fired eight gunshots in his garage. The allegations appear to have derailed the Reds’ trade of Chapman to the Dodgers. “I know we can’t touch him. Our owner would never go for that. And I’m getting the sense from other teams that they feel the same way,” one NL executive says. “Yeah, we know talent can cover up some character flaws, but domestic violence is such a hot topic now.” Spurred by cases involving Ray Rice and others in the NFL, domestic violence has become a high-profile issue in sports, and a team trading for Chapman would likely now be opening itself to a barrage of criticism. It doesn’t look like MLB’s investigation into Chapman’s situation will be resolved quickly, either. Nightengale notes that Chapman’s situation could lead to changes in the way MLB teams announce player acquisitions, potentially including language about completing background checks as well as physicals. Here are more notes from the NL Central.

  • The Cubs have maintained steady contact with Jason Heyward’s representation, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. It’s uncertain, however, whether they’ll continue to have interest after agreeing to terms with Ben Zobrist. Heyward has lately been connected to the Giants, Angels and Cardinals.
  • One possibility for the Cardinals if they can’t re-sign Heyward is to sign Alex Gordon for less, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). With the savings, they could then pursue NPB starter Kenta Maeda. Gordon could play right field in 2016, then move to left if the Cardinals decline Matt Holliday’s option for the following season.
  • The Pirates are interested in re-signing Sean Rodriguez, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Rodriguez batted a modest .246/.281/.362 with the Bucs in 2015 but helped with his versatility, playing competent defense while splitting his time between first and the corner outfield positions (and also occasionally helping elsewhere in the infield).
  • The Bucs are exploring a variety of possibilities at first base, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Specifically, Berry writes that the Pirates have expressed interest in Mike Napoli, although the right-handed Napoli seems like a slightly awkward fit given the presence of the right-handed Michael Morse on the Bucs’ roster. After non-tendering Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates are looking for a new first baseman to form a bridge to top prospect Josh Bell.

Giants GM Bobby Evans On Fowler, Maeda, Soria

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After missing out on their top pitching target this winter, the Giants knew that they had to act fast in order to shore up their rotation.  When Diamondbacks acted completely sub rosa and shocked the world by landing Zack Greinke, the Giants quickly pivoted to Jeff Samardzija, giving him a five-year, $90MM deal.  Even though the deal carries an average annual value of $18MM, Giants GM Bobby Evans tells MLB Trade Rumors that there’s still potentially enough in the coffers to make another impact signing at a similar level.

“There’s flexibility, yes,” Evans told MLBTR. “I think [last year] we didn’t go as far on multi-year deals and we did shorter term deals.  It does give you some flexibility this time around.”

Right now, Evans is looking to allocate some of those funds towards the left field position.  The Giants GM indicated that he has talked with reps for Dexter Fowler and Gerardo Parra this week, but, he also went on to say that he has been in touch with “almost everyone on the outfield market.”  The idea of flexibility goes beyond payroll for Evans as the Giants refuse to lock in on a limited group of left field candidates.

While left field is a priority for Evans, the bullpen is admittedly “on the back burner.”  The Giants were long connected to veteran reliever Joakim Soria, but Evans explained that he was not especially desperate to sign him because of his confidence in the current ’pen and the minor league depth backing it up.  Without taking anything away from Soria, who signed for $25MM over three seasons, Evans explained that it was “too early” in the offseason for the Giants to allocate money towards relievers.  In other words, Evans & Co. have bigger fish to fry before they get to fortifying the late innings.

As it turns out, that big fish could be a Carp.  Evans confirmed that the club is having internal discussions about Japanese star Kenta Maeda, who was formally posted on Tuesday.  Factoring in the expected $20MM posting fee that it will take to have an audience with the right-hander, the total outlay for him could be $80MM or more.  Suffice it to say, a flirtation with Maeda while also adequately filling the left field vacancy could really test the limits of the Giants’ budget.

Pitching Notes: Rangers, Giants, Maeda, Chapman, Stammen, Jays, Pirates, Okajima

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It appears the Rangers are at least looking into an impactful pitching addition. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan says (Twitter links) that the club has pursued Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, and Drew Smyly on the trade market, but “couldn’t make headway” on any of those players. The club is, however, holding a line of dialogue with the Indians on their rotation arms. Meanwhile, Texas has “neither funds nor interest level” to take a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter.

Here’s more on the pitching market:

  • The Giants have some interest in Maeda, skipper Bruce Bochy told reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). And the team has scouted him previously in Japan, colleague Henry Schulman adds on Twitter. Of course, Bochy also added that the club expects Maeda to draw wide interest, and didn’t make clear just how strong of a draw he represents.
  • With uncertainty abounding, the Dodgers are holding internal discussions on what to do about the team’s prospective trade for Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports via Twitter. It’s possible that the club could “pivot” to some other acquisition targets or that it might allow the situation to play out before committing in either direction, he adds.
  • Recently non-tendered righty Craig Stammen is “100% recovered” from his arm surgery, a source tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (via) Twitter. Stammen, a stalwart of the Nationals pen for several years, was non-tendered recently. He’ll be entering his age-32 season after producing a 2.88 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 246 2/3 innings over 2012-15.
  • The Blue Jays are considering an array of options as they look at pen additions, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets. Toronto is considering everything from the best remaining free agent relievers to “bounce-back types,” he says.
  • While a lefty reliever isn’t the Pirates’ top priority, the team has reached to free agent Matt Thornton, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter.
  • The Pirates have shown interest in free agenty righty Kyle Kendrick, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (via Twitter). Kendrick struggled last year for the Rockies, but he’s still just 31 years old and has had success at times in a swingman capacity. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review broke down the Bucs’ efforts to find starters in a piece yesterday.
  • Japanese reliever Hideki Okajima is eyeing a return to the majors for his age-40 campaign, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. The long-time Red Sox southpaw last appeared in the bigs in 2013 with the Athletics and has played in Japan for the last two years.

Japan’s Hiroshima Carp To Post Kenta Maeda

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DECEMBER 10: Maeda’s posting process will actually begin tomorrow, December 10, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

DECEMBER 8: Maeda will formally be posted today, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets.

DECEMBER 3: The Hiroshima Carp will post ace right-hander Kenta Maeda for Major League clubs to bid on this winter, according to a report from Yahoo Japan (Japanese link, h/t: Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times, on Twitter). Maeda had asked his club to post him a little more than a week ago.

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Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweets that he believes the Carp will set the release fee for Maeda at the maximum $20MM, meaning interested teams will have to pay that amount in order to secure the right to bid for Maeda’s services.

If the release fee is indeed set at $20MM — and that does seem likely, given Maeda’s profile — every team in baseball will have the opportunity to bid that amount. Maeda and his agents will then be free to negotiate with each club that met the release fee, ultimately taking whatever offer is most to the pitcher’s liking. Teams that bid but fail to sign Maeda will have their fee returned, whereas the $20MM bid from the team that ultimately signs Maeda will go to the Carp as compensation for the loss.

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.

A recent scouting report from Badler (a subscription is required but highly recommended to read many of Badler’s scouting reports on international players), gave a refresher on much of what is already known of Maeda but also revealed that in the recent Premier 12 international tournament, Maeda displayed a vastly improved changeup that looked to be a plus pitch. Badler notes that Maeda’s fastball sits 89-93 and can hit 94 at times, with an above-average slider as his typically favored secondary offering.

As Badler notes, most scouts feel that Maeda is at least a No. 4 starter in the Majors, though the potential is obviously there for him to exceed that label. Recall that many were reluctant to label Masahiro Tanaka an ace in the making when he was posted (although, as Badler points out, Tanaka’s raw stuff is simply more overpowering than Maeda’s arsenal). Nevertheless, the addition of a plus changeup to Maeda’s arsenal would further entice clubs seeking high-end pitching, and if a team believes a fourth starter to be the floor for the right-hander, one can imagine a hefty price tag being placed upon him. Said one scout to Badler: “I didn’t think his slider was very good that day (against Mexico), but his changeup was nasty. He was throwing it to righthanders and lefthanders. To me, that was his best pitch.”

Maeda figures to attract interest from a wide number of clubs — both teams that are aiming to contend in 2016 and possibly some rebuilding/retooling clubs that are eyeing 2017 and beyond. Because he’ll pitch next season at 28, Maeda is younger than most free agent starters and therefore doesn’t necessarily carry the risk that he’ll be in decline by the time a rebuilding or transitional club flips the page to contention.

One team that is known to have strong interest in Maeda is the Diamondbacks. General manager Dave Stewart wasn’t shy whatsoever when asked about the player last winter, candidly stating: “I love Maeda. I love him. We have a lot of video and film and we have people who have seen him. We think that he’s got a chance to be very successful in Major League Baseball. We’re going to try to be in on the market when he does post, if he does post.” Maeda, of course, was not posted last season, but Stewart recently said that the D-backs have maintained their interest. That they’re said to be in search of pitching help that does not require draft pick forfeiture only strengthens the likelihood that they’ll make a push for Maeda, although, as I noted before, many teams will be in the mix. Given the fact that there’s little risk in actually posting the $20MM release fee (which, again, is refunded if a team doesn’t sign Maeda), it’d make sense for half the league (or more) to at least meet the fee just to see the asking price.

We at MLBTR ranked Maeda 14th in terms of earning power on our Top 50 free agent list and estimated a five-year, $60MM contract on top of a $20MM posting fee. While the comfort level of interested teams of course remains to be seen, it should be noted that the bulk of pitchers available on this year’s open market doesn’t seem to have hampered earning power for pitchers thus far in the offseason — even those among the second and third tiers of arms. For instance, Johnny Cueto has reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM offer already, while Jeff Samardzija is said to have offers in the $90-100MM range. And, J.A. Happ has already landed an impressive three-year, $36MM contract. Given that expenditure and the rumored price tags on other arms, it appears (on the surface, at least) that Maeda is well-positioned to secure a substantial contract as he looks to jump to Major League Baseball.

It should also be wondered if, in addition to a sizable guarantee, he’ll be in line for an opt-out clause. Tanaka received such a clause when signing his contract with the Yankees, as did outfielder Yasmany Tomas in signing his six-year contract with the Diamondbacks. An opt-out after two or three years would allow Maeda the opportunity to establish himself in the Majors and re-enter the market with a big league track record, although an opt-out would probably come with a trade-off in terms of total guarantee (Tanaka’s enormous contract notwithstanding).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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