Perrotto’s Latest: Free Agent Predictions
John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Perrotto offers a list of some educated guesses as to where some of the top free agents in baseball will land, with some surprises here and there. Let’s take a look:
- Perrotto lists the Yankees loading up on starting pitching, landing C.C. Sabathia and Derek Lowe, while the Dodgers land Manny Ramirez after doubling their initial offer to four years, $100MM.
- Perrotto says the Nationals will land Mark Teixeira, as they could be prepared to offer Teixeira – a Maryland native – ten years, $200MM. Turning down that kind of money would certainly be difficult.
- Perrotto has Adam Dunn landing on the North Side of Chicago and having an adventurous time in right field for the Cubs. According to these predictions, he’ll be joined by Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood – neither of whom are going anywhere.
- Perrotto feel Andy Pettitte won’t be back with the Yankees, and feels that he will either take a below-market contract from his hometown Astros or retire. He also pegs Mike Mussina to likely retire, but agrees he’ll be back with the Yankees if he does indeed make a run at 300 wins.
- Other predictions from Perrotto: Raul Ibanez and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets, Milton Bradley to Toronto, Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota, Casey Blake back to Cleveland, A.J. Burnett to the Orioles, Brian Fuentes to the Angels, Nick Punto to St. Louis, Randy Johnson to the Angels, Jason Giambi to Oakland, and Orlando Hudson to the Mets.
- The list of players who will end up back with their current teams: Ben Sheets, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, and Jason Varitek, on a two-year $20MM contract, courtesy of Scott Boras.
Mets Revamping The Bullpen
The Mets’ primary focus this winter is to completely revamp their bullpen. Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman outline Plan A: free agents. Names in the mix: Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Joe Beimel, Juan Cruz, and Chad Cordero. Sherman figures the Mets are in a good position because most of the other big-market teams aren’t looking for a closer.
Plan B: trades. The Mets have already discussed Bobby Jenks with the White Sox. J.J. Putz, Huston Street, and Kevin Gregg are the other names. It all depends on how much young talent Omar Minaya wants to sacrifice.
As a corollary to Plan B, the Mets want to ship out Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, and Scott Schoeneweis. They hope to clear payroll and/or bring in other relievers in these trades. Davidoff says Heilman has plenty of admirers.
Another note from Sherman – the Mets "could be interested" in Jason Varitek if the price comes down but Varitek doesn’t re-sign with Boston. In another article, Davidoff lays out Plans A, B, and C for both the Mets and Yankees.
Rosenthal: Cubs Want Peavy And Dempster
Ken Rosenthal is working overtime today with his second column. This time Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are willing to give Ryan Dempster a four-year deal even if they land Jake Peavy from the Padres.
The club also is willing to give Dempster a four-year contract, sources say, a decision that should put them in good position to retain the free-agent right-hander.
Even though the Cubs are for sale, team officials apparently believe that they can absorb the four years and $63 million remaining on Peavy’s contract while committing at least $50 million to Dempster over the same term.
Rosenthal notes the close relationship between Dempster and Jim Hendry could keep Dempster from accepting a longer or more lucrative deal with another team.
However, Rosenthal notes there would likely be a ripple effect on the roster if the Cubs were to resign Dempster and trade for Peavy.
- The Cubs would likely be unable to resign Kerry Wood.
- Several players may have to be traded to reduce payroll, including Jason Marquis.
- May have to opt for a cheaper left-handed hitting outfielder than originally thought.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Cubs Rumors: Dempster, Peavy, Sabathia, Hill
6:05pm: According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs are willing to offer Dempster a four-year contract. This helps their chances, though Dempster’s agent said today "there’s very little possibility he’s going to sign soon with the Cubs."
9:36am: Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times has fresh Cubs rumors this morning.
- De Luca’s sources describe the Cubs’ interest in Jake Peavy as "limited." Instead, the Cubs have "deep interest" in C.C. Sabathia. De Luca also wonders if the Cubs will entertain A.J. Burnett. Dave van Dyck suggested Derek Lowe could fit. The Cubs’ payroll room will depend on free agents Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, plus their ability to move Jason Marquis.
- Rich Hill‘s lost 2008 season killed his trade value. He’ll be out of options next spring.
- De Luca’s sources say the Cubs continue to pursue Brian Roberts and Raul Ibanez. Ibanez would play right field for the Cubs, even though he allowed 18 more bases than the average left fielder this year.
Indians Open To All Options At Closer
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Indians GM Mark Shapiro is considering all options for the team’s closer job.
No free agents have been ruled out, even expensive closers like Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. The Indians’ #15 pick is protected, if they go that route. Shapiro admitted to interest in Trevor Hoffman and Kerry Wood, if they are not retained by their old teams. If the Indians can’t find a closer, they may add a late inning reliever to put in front of Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez anyway.
On the trade front, the Indians have Huston Street on the radar. Kevin Gregg could be another consideration.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Fielder, Beimel, Eckstein
Ken Rosenthal is on the scene at the GM meetings, and as usual has all kinds of new info.
- The Brewers are unlikely to trade Prince Fielder, and reluctant to trade J.J. Hardy or Alcides Escobar. It’d be smart to retain those three players.
- Rosenthal still likes the Braves as the favorite for Jake Peavy, but wonders if the Cubs or another team could incorporate a third team to get it done.
- The Cubs will need to spend much of their available money on pitching, which may leave little payroll room for an outfielder like Bobby Abreu. They could backload contracts and move some of Jason Marquis‘ salary though.
- The Mets are interested in lefty reliever Joe Beimel, as well as usual suspects Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, and Kerry Wood. They also like Raul Ibanez.
- The Cardinals could move forward with a Ryan Ludwick/Colby Rasmus/Rick Ankiel outfield, or trade one of them. Ankiel, entering his contract year, seems most likely to go if Rasmus is ready.
- David Eckstein is marketing himself as a second baseman for 2009.
- Don’t look for the Phillies to move Shane Victorino in a Matt Holliday deal.
- The Cardinals and Nationals are not contenders for A.J. Burnett. Still no word on Burnett’s opt-out.
- The Marlins may wait until some of the top free agent starters sign before shopping Scott Olsen.
Cubs Rumors: Fukudome, Dempster, Wood
Let’s check in on the Cubs’ offseason plans.
- Cubs manager Lou Piniella says the Cubs will move Kosuke Fukudome to center field to platoon with Reed Johnson. This move implies Jim Edmonds won’t be back. Technically Edmonds could play right field, but he also needs a platoon partner.
- The Cubs figure to be in the market for a lefthanded hitting right fielder. Piniella expects the team to fill their holes via trade. Brian Giles, Randy Winn, and Jeremy Hermida could fit the bill.
- Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald reminds fans that Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee have no-trade clauses, and does not believe either will be traded.
- Ken Rosenthal figures the Cubs will re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. However, he wonders if a three-year offer from another team could entice Wood. Rosenthal says the Mets like Wood but can’t take on that kind of risk.
Cubs Offseason Targets
Recently I wrote a Cubs Offseason Outlook, where many reasonable acquisition targets were discussed. If the Cubs re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, they’ll be limited by payroll unless the salaries of Jason Marquis ($9.875MM) or Derrek Lee ($13MM) are moved.
Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune names his possible Cubs targets: Brian Roberts, Adam Dunn, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Rafael Furcal, Jake Peavy, and Brian Fuentes. Some fun names in there, many of which could only be added if payroll space is created. Dunn would be an interesting choice for a regular right fielder, while Jacobs would represent a downgrade at first base.
The Cubs aren’t likely to add Peavy, especially if they re-sign Dempster. If you’d like to take the speculation to the next level nonetheless, Barry Rozner has ideas at the Daily Herald. With any trade scenario, it is always important to put yourself in the shoes of the other team and ask if it is truly the best deal for them.
Hendry Signs Four-Year Extension
7:35pm: Hendry commented on all kinds of topics to MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. He sounds a little more intent on re-signing Dempster than Wood. Hendry is not sure whether Jim Edmonds will retire, but he sees Felix Pie making the team out of spring training.
Cubs chairman Crane Kenney doesn’t expect any major moves that would require significant increases in payroll. Kenney said a few weeks ago that he anticipated a bump in payroll.
12:13pm: According to the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs have extended GM Jim Hendry’s contract through the 2012 season. He can now focus on free agents Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, as well as acquiring a lefthanded bat.
Odds and Ends: Steinbrenner, Burnett, Sabathia
Links for Sunday, before I head out to Chipotle…
- Hank Steinbrenner talked to George King of the New York Post. He made it clear that he has not taken a step back in running the Yankees. Hank also mentions Mark Teixeira by name, calling him a "quality player."
- Ken Davidoff tries to determine if A.J. Burnett‘s injury-prone days are behind him, as his agent would like us to believe.
- Henry Schulman chatted with Dodgers GM Ned Colletti.
- John Shea lays odds for the C.C. Sabathia bidding.
- Phil Rogers campaigns for an extension for Cubs GM Jim Hendry. He wonders if Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood would follow if Hendry joined a different team.
- A’s GM Billy Beane talked to Matthew Lutovsky of the Sporting News about fantasy baseball as well as a new video game.