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Keston Hiura

Keston Hiura Won’t Make Tigers, Has Upward Mobility Clause

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4:30pm: Petzold tweets that the upward mobility clause dates are March 26, June 1 and August 1.

4:10pm: The Tigers announced today that they have reassigned right-hander Trey Wingenter, left-hander Andrew Vasquez, catcher Anthony Bemboom, infielder Keston Hiura and outfielders Bligh Madris and Ryan Vilade to minor league camp, indicating that no one in that group will make the club’s Opening Day roster.

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press takes a look at the moves and notes that the organization plans to have Hiura serve as the primary first baseman for Triple-A Toledo. However, the wrinkle in that plan is that his minor league deal has an upward mobility clause, also known as an assignment clause. There are multiple dates where the Tigers must ask the other 29 clubs if any is willing to give Hiura a roster spot. If any of them say yes, the Tigers either have to call him up themselves or trade him to the team that wants him.

That means that the Tigers can only keep him in Triple-A if the other teams all pass on the chance to take him. Petzold doesn’t provide specifics about the dates when the clause will be triggered, but he does note that one of them is next week.

The 27-year-old has had a feast-or-famine career thus far, as he has shown huge home run power but also a worrying penchant for strikeouts. He has 1,057 plate appearances at the major league level, all with the Brewers from 2019 to 2022. He struck out in 380 of them, a 36% rate which is well above par. The league-wide average was 22.7% in the majors last year, for reference. But Hiura did hit 50 home runs in that time.

Last year, Hiura was stuck in Triple-A. He hit 25 homers in 367 plate appearances at that level while keeping his strikeout rate to a more passable 24.5% clip. But he never got called back up to the big leagues and hit minor league free agency at season’s end, signing a minor league deal with the Tigers.

Here in the spring, he batted .323 for the Tigers with two homers in 34 plate appearances. He only struck out at a 23.5% rate but it’s a small sample size and spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt as opposing pitchers may not be major league caliber or may be experimenting as they get ready for the season.

Hiura doesn’t have a strong path to playing time in Detroit. He came up as a second baseman but was a poor defender there and spent more time at first base and left field last year. The Tigers have Spencer Torkelson entrenched at first for the foreseeable future. The designated hitter slot will likely be used to rotate their outfielders through, with Kerry Carpenter perhaps seeing the most time as a DH while Mark Canha, Parker Meadows and Riley Greene are on the grass. The bench will be taken up by backup catcher Carson Kelly and utility infielder/outfielders Andy Ibañez, Zach McKinstry and Matt Vierling.

The Tigers would surely like to keep Hiura around as depth but the other 29 clubs will have multiple opportunities to take a chance on him. The Rays just lost one player from their first base/designated hitter mix as it was reported today that Jonathan Aranda requires surgery for a broken finger. The Yankees may be without DJ LeMahieu to start the season after he fouled a ball of his foot. Hiura wouldn’t be able to step in as the everyday third baseman but could provide another bench bat while Oswaldo Cabrera covers the hot corner. The Angels have Nolan Schanuel as their first baseman despite the fact that he was just drafted last summer, and he’s also currently dealing with some back tightness.

There’s also the possibility for platooning, as Hiura has significant reverse splits in his career. He’s hit just .201/.283/.323 against southpaws for a 64 wRC+ but .253/.332/.508 against righties for a 122 wRC+, despite being a right-handed hitter. For any club that feels they are weak against righties, Hiura will be there for the taking. His deal comes with a $2MM base salary if he’s in the majors.

Tigers Sign Keston Hiura To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed free agent Keston Hiura, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a minor league deal, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold adds that the CAA Sports client will earn $2MM plus incentives if in the majors.

Hiura, 27, has put up huge power numbers but also worrying strikeout totals. The Brewers selected him ninth overall in 2017 and he debuted in the big leagues with that club in 2019. He hit 19 home runs in just 84 games in what was later revealed to be the “juiced balls” season. His 30.7% strikeout rate was on the high side but he was a 22-year-old rookie and it was hoped he could bring that down as he matured and got more exposure to big league pitching.

But instead, the opposite happened. The strikeouts kept mounting and he was frequently optioned to the minors. He got into 200 big league games from 2020 to 2022, hitting 31 homers but also getting punched out in 38.5% of his trips to the plate. He came up as a second baseman but his glovework was considered poor. He gradually spent more time at first base and left field, less-demanding positions from a defensive point of view but ones where the offensive expectations are higher.

Going into 2023, he had exhausted his option years while the Brewers had Rowdy Tellez and Luke Voit blocking his path to playing time at first base and an abundance of corner outfielders as well. They put him on waivers at the end of March and he passed through unclaimed. He and the club had already agreed to a $2.2MM salary and no other club was willing to take that on. He technically had the right to reject an outright assignment since he had over three years of service time, but he lacked the five years of service time necessary to both reject the assignment and keep the money.

Instead, he reported to Triple-A Nashville in order to keep that salary in place. He made a few trips to the minor league injured list and played 85 Triple-A games last year. He hit 23 home runs in that time while keeping his strikeout rate to a 24.5% rate. That’s obviously far better than his time in the major leagues, but a more modest improvement compared to his previous Triple-A stints. From 2019 to 2022, he struck out in 29.1% of his 508 Triple-A appearances.

Hiura never got the call to the big leagues and qualified for free agency at season’s end. For the Tigers, there’s little harm in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal to see how he looks. The power potential is unquestionable and he could be a nice under-the-radar pickup if he’s able to get the strikeouts under control.

He actually has tremendously reversed splits for his career, so would be best served being in the lineup against righties, despite being a right-handed hitter. He’s hit .201/.283/.323 against southpaws in his career but .253/.332/.508 the rest of the time, leading to a split of 64 versus 122 in terms of wRC+.

The Tigers have Spencer Torkelson at first base while their corner outfield and designated hitter time should be split between Riley Greene, Mark Canha and Kerry Carpenter. Torkelson has hit lefties better in his career thus far: .225/.299/.458 batting line and 106 wRC+ compared to a .220/.304/.379 showing and 91 wRC+ against righties. That arguably creates a path for Hiura to earn some at-bats but the Tigers won’t be eager to platoon Torkelson since he’s a former first overall pick and still developing, with the potential to be a key part of their future. Canha and Greene both have fairly even splits while Carpenter is best against righties.

Hiura is somewhat blocked at the moment but injuries are inevitable in a long baseball season. If he’s mashing in Triple-A again and the Tigers find themselves with a hole in their lineup, he might get a shot at filling it. If he’s selected to the roster, he is out of options but he could be controlled beyond this season if things go especially well. He has three years and nine days of service time, meaning that he would be three years from free agency even if he made the Opening Day roster. If he were added a few weeks into the season, he wouldn’t be able to reach the four-year mark this year, thus pushing his free agency back another year.

Keston Hiura Elects Free Agency

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According to his player page on MLB.com, former top prospect Keston Hiura has elected free agency. He spent the 2023 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate, the Nashville Sounds.

Hiura was the ninth overall selection in the 2017 draft. He wasted no time at all in making a strong first impression, batting .371 with a 1.033 OPS across stints at the Rookie and Low-A levels. He continued to hit the following season, beginning the year at High-A and earning a promotion to Double-A by June. The year after that was more of the same, as Hiura demolished Triple-A pitching en route to a big league promotion at just 22 years old. While some might have struggled after such a quick ascension to the highest level of the game, the young star didn’t skip a beat. He finished his rookie season with 19 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a .938 OPS in 84 games.

Unfortunately for Hiura, that’s where the good times stopped. He spent the full year with the Brewers in 2020, slashing a meager .212/.297/.410. Things took a turn for the worse the following year, as he hit .160 with a .563 OPS, bouncing back and forth between the major and minor leagues.

His bat started to look better in 2022, and Hiura had an .805 OPS at the All-Star break. Still, his underlying numbers were cause for concern; his 43.8% strikeout rate was untenable, and his .412 BABIP was masking deeper issues. Indeed, Hiura fell back down to earth over the final two months of the season, striking out far too often to make good use of his power bat. Ultimately, the Brewers couldn’t find a place for him on the active roster entering the 2023 campaign, and as he was out of options, they had no choice but to designate the once-promising slugger for assignment. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, where he spent the season. His .308/.395/.565 slash line was impressive, but evidently not impressive enough to merit a reunion with the big league squad.

Now a free agent, Hiura is free to sign with a new organization, and perhaps a change of scenery is just what he needs. Next year will be his age-27 season, and if he continues to hit like he did at Triple-A, it’s hard to imagine he won’t make his way back to majors eventually.

Injury Notes: Seager, Buehler, Maeda, Hiura

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Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is expected to be activated prior to tonight’s game, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The 29-year-old Seager, playing in the second season of a decade-long $325MM contract, has missed the past month due to a hamstring strain. He burst out of the gates with a .359/.469/.538 showing through his first 49 trips to the plate and went 2-for-8 with a double, a walk and no strikeouts in a brief three-game rehab assignment at Double-A. In Seager’s absence, 23-year-old Ezequiel Duran has filled in admirably at shortstop, batting .293/.328/.474 on the season, though his bat has cooled off in the past week or so. Manager Bruce Bochy has been impressed enough that he’s pledged to find “creative” ways to keep Duran in the lineup frequently even after Seager’s return.

A few more injury situations of particular note to keep an eye on around the league…

  • Right-hander Walker Buehler is with the team at Dodger Stadium and will throw in the bullpen for the Major League staff to take a look at his progress in recovering from Tommy John surgery, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Walker is still a ways from being an option in the big leagues. The 28-year-old’s surgery was performed late last August, and the general expectation surrounding him has been that he’ll at best be an option in the final month or so of the season. Still, the fact that Buehler has already had multiple bullpen sessions in Arizona and is slated for more mound work this week at Dodger Stadium is encouraging for both the Dodgers and their fans.
  • The Twins hope that right-hander Kenta Maeda can resume throwing off a mound by the end of the week, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda hit the injured list with a triceps strain after being tattooed for 10 runs in three innings against the Yankees. He’d previously allowed six runs on 12 hits with a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio in 13 innings (4.15 ERA) after missing the entire 2022 season. The Twins’ rotation depth has been tested early, with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepping in for the injured Maeda and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery). A healthy Maeda would again give the Twins six candidates for rotation work, but injuries tend to sort these issues out. And, if everyone is healthy at the same time, the Twins could opt to use Maeda in relief as a means of monitoring his workload after not throwing a pitch last season.
  • Brewers infielder Keston Hiura, currently playing with their Triple-A club, will miss several weeks due to a posterior cruciate ligament injury in his left knee, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Hiura won’t require surgery, but the expectation is that he’ll be out of game action until late next month. It’s a tough blow for the former top prospect, who was hoping to play his way back onto the big league roster after clearing outright waivers earlier this year. He’s out to a .331/.396/.678 start with a dozen home runs through 134 plate appearances with Nashville this season and has trimmed his strikeout rate there to 24.6%. Hiura has had similar stretches in Triple-A before, however, and his familiar strikeout woes have regularly resurfaced upon being promoted back to the big leagues. He batted .226/.316/.449 with the Brewers last year (115 wRC+), but because of a staggering 41.7% strikeout rate, he needed a .355 average on balls in play to get to that middling .226 batting average.

Brewers Sign Luke Voit To One-Year Deal

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MARCH 28: Voit signed a split deal that comes with a $2MM base salary for time spent in the majors, the Associated Press reports. Voit should reach five years of major league service a few days into the season, which would afford him the right to refuse an optional assignment to the minors at that point. The Excel Sports Management client would receive $500K apiece for reaching 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances — potentially maxing the deal out at $5MM. The ’24 club option is valued at $12MM and doesn’t come with a buyout. He’d remain arbitration-eligible if Milwaukee declines the option.

MARCH 27: The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that they have signed first baseman Luke Voit to a one-year deal with a club option for 2024. The financial terms aren’t publicly known at this time. In a corresponding move, infielder Keston Hiura was designated for assignment. Additionally, infielder Abraham Toro was optioned to the minors and outfielder Sal Frelick was reassigned to minor league camp. The Brewers also announced that infielder Brice Turang has made the Opening Day roster.

Luke Voit | Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY SportsVoit, 32, has previously been in camp with the Brewers on a minor league deal, though it afforded him the ability to opt-out and pursue opportunities elsewhere. Though he initially agreed to kick that decision down the road, he eventually triggered his opt-out and returned to the open market. However, the Brewers didn’t want him to get away and have now brought him back aboard with a major league deal and an option for 2024. Even if they turn that option down, they could still retain Voit via arbitration since he will still be shy of six years’ service time at the end of the season.

The slugger has previously been one of the most potent bats in the league but is coming off a couple of years that weren’t quite as strong. He actually led the majors in home runs in the shortened 2020 season, going over the fence 22 times. His .277/.338/.610 batting line that year amounted to a wRC+ of 153, indicating he was 53% better than the league average hitter. But in 2021, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the year and struggled when he wasn’t on the IL. The Yanks eventually supplanted him at first by acquiring Anthony Rizzo, trading Voit to the Padres going into 2022.

Voit stayed healthy enough to get into 135 game last year, eventually hitting 22 home runs, but with lesser results overall. He struck out in 31.5% of his plate appearances and hit .226/.308/.402 for a wRC+ of 102. That included a midseason trade to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal, after Eric Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to take himself out of it. The Nats could have kept him around via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an $8.2MM salary, though they non-tendered him instead.

The Brewers have a left-handed hitter at first base in Rowdy Tellez and their outfield/designated hitter mix contains further lefties in Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. Voit’s right-handed bat would seem at first glance to make a good fit for that group in a platoon role, though he actually has modest reverse splits in his career. He’s hit .262/.347/.491 against righties in his career for a 129 wRC+. Against southpaws, he’s hit .236/.329/.439, for a 110 wRC+, still above average but less than his work against righties. However he’s deployed, he’ll look to get back on track with his new club after a couple of trying seasons.

As for Hiura, 26, he made a big splash with his debut in 2019, hitting 19 home runs in just 84 games. He’s continued to hit for power in the seasons since but with mounting strikeout issues that have diminished his overall production. Last year, he hit 14 homers in just 80 games but was also punched out at a 41.7% rate. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a detailed look of the Hiura situation, which put the club in an awkward spot because he no longer has options. A few days ago, Hiura was informed that he would not be making the roster.

The Brewers will now have a week to either trade Hiura or try to pass him through waivers. Despite his struggles, it seems possible that another team would be willing to give him a shot based on his huge power output. That could perhaps be a team that isn’t expecting to be competitive this year, though it’s also possible that injuries could create opportunities elsewhere. In the event that Hiura clears waivers, he would be able to reject an outright assignment, though it’s possible he accepts. Players with between three and five years of service time can reject outright assignments but they have to forfeit their salary. Hiura qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason and agreed to a $2.2MM salary, meaning he’d have to leave that on the table to become a free agent.

As for Turang, 23, he’s one of the club’s top prospects. Selected in the first round of the 2018 draft, he spent last year in Triple-A. He hit 13 home runs and stole 34 bases, hitting .286/.360/.412 for a wRC+ of 108. Though he’s mostly been a shortstop in his time in the minors, he figures to take over the second base job in Milwaukee next to Willy Adames. Turang is already on the 40-man roster so a corresponding move won’t be necessary.

Keston Hiura Clears Waivers, Sent Outright To Triple-A

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The Brewers announced that infielder Keston Hiura, who was designated for assignment this week, went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Nashville. As a player with more than three years of service time, he has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but doing so would mean forfeiting his $2.2MM salary. As such, he’ll surely accept the assignment and open the season in Nashville, hoping to play his way back onto the big league club.

Hiura, 26, was a ninth overall selection of the Brewers in 2017 and was a top 100 prospect in the years after that. He burst onto the big leagues in 2019, hitting 19 home runs in 84 games. His 30.7% strikeout rate that year was on the high side, but that was just his age-22 season. It seemed reasonable to expect that he would be able to refine his approach as he aged and grew accustomed to big league pitching, allowing him to make better use of that tremendous power.

Unfortunately, the opposite has proven to be true, with Hiura’s strikeouts becoming even more of a problem. His rate ticked up to 34.6% in 2020, then 39.1% the next year and 41.7% last season. The power still remains, as he hit 14 home runs in 80 games last year, but the punchouts give back a lot of the value that comes from those homers. As those strikeouts continued to mount, the Brewers often sent him to the minors, eventually exhausting his option years.

The Brewers could have kept Hiura around as a right-handed bench bat to complement their many left-handed hitters, but he actually has fairly extreme reverse splits in his career. He’s hit just .201/.283/.323 against lefties for a wRC+ of 65, while slashing .253/.332/.508 against righties for a 122 wRC+. The Brewers also brought Luke Voit aboard on a minor league deal this winter and saw him perform well this spring. He also has reverse splits, but not nearly as extreme as Hiura. Voit opted out of his minors deal but returned to the Brewers on a one-year deal, at which point Hiura was designated for assignment.

Hiura reached arbitration for the first time this winter and was able to secure himself a $2.2MM salary for the upcoming season. As mentioned up top, he can leave that money on the table and become a free agent if he likes, but the fact that no team claimed him off waivers suggests that none of the 29 other clubs values him at that price point. He’ll likely report to Triple-A and try once again to earn another opportunity in Milwaukee.

Brewers Notes: Hiura, Varland, Miller, Wiemer

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold attempted to trade infielder Keston Hiura prior to this morning’s DFA, he told reporters in the wake of the move (Twitter link via Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Clearly, no deal came together. It’s still possible that the Brewers could find a trade partner in the coming days, but a DFA on the heels of an apparently tepid trade market also creates the possibility that Milwaukee will attempt to pass Hiura through waivers.

There’s no guarantee Hiura would be claimed, given his $2.2MM salary, prolific strikeout rates and limited defensive abilities. While he turned in a .226/.316/.449 batting line (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 266 plate appearances last year, Hiura also punched out at staggering 41.7% clip. He needed a .355 batting average on balls in play and a massive 29.8% homer-to-flyball rate just to get to a .226 average overall. It’s hard to imagine him sustaining either.

[Related: The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma]

Hiura’s strikeout rate has worsened each year since his sensational rookie debut back in 2019, when he hit .303/.368/.570. Since that time, he’s a .205/.293/.394 with a 38.5% strikeout rate and negative ratings for his glovework at second base. He’s been about average in 603 innings at first base, per both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. That Hiura is out of minor league options also contributed to both his DFA and the ostensible difficulty in finding a trade partner.

The DFA of Hiura and subsequent signing of Luke Voit were just a couple of many steps the Brewers took toward solidifying the roster today. The team also informed Rule 5 pick Gus Varland today that he’s made the Opening Day roster. (Fans of any team will want to check out the video of Arnold and skipper Craig Counsell informing Varland of the news.) Counsell also announced that Owen Miller made the roster while top outfield prospect Joey Wiemer has been reassigned to minor league camp (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Varland pitched to a 4.15 ERA in eight spring appearances but also showed the potential to overpower opponents. Though he was tagged for three home runs, he also fanned 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%) against just one walk in 8 2/3 innings. He’s had a brutal two seasons with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate in 2021-22 (combined 5.98 ERA), but the Brewers were intrigued by his raw stuff over his results, and at least thus far, that interest looks well founded.

That Varland landed with the Brewers of all teams is surely extra sweet to the right-hander, who’s from nearby Minnesota and noted during an emotional interaction with Arnold and Counsell that he has family in Milwaukee. He and his brother Louie Varland, who pitches for the pair’s hometown Twins, played their college ball at Division-II Concordia in St. Paul but can now both call themselves big leaguers.

Today marks even more of a homecoming for Miller, a Wisconsin native whom the team picked up in a trade that sent a player to be named later to the Guardians back in December. Miller hit just .243/.301/.351 in 472 plate appearances with Cleveland last year, fading after a hot April, but he slashed .385/.429/.487 this spring. He’s played all four infield positions in his brief MLB career — primarily first base and second base — but the Brewers gave him a look in center field this spring and could use him on the grass in 2023. Miller does have minor league options remaining, so he can be freely sent to Triple-A Nashville if he has a rocky stretch this season.

Some Brewer fans will be disheartened to see Wiemer, 23, sent to minor league camp — particularly after last year’s .287/.368/.520 showing in Triple-A. The 2020 fourth-rounder looks like one of the steals of his draft class after a big 2022 season and currently sits on the top 100 prospect rankings at Baseball Prospectus (65), MLB.com (90), FanGraphs (91) and The Athletic (91). He hit .262/.319/.429 with a pair of homers and a double in 47 plate appearances this spring.

As Counsell explained, the decision on Wiemer simply boiled down to playing time. The roster spot that was up for grabs was a part-time role off the bench, and the organization wants Wiemer and fellow top outfield prospect Sal Frelick to receive regular playing time down in Nashville. Given the prospect status of both Wiemer and Frelick, a strong start could force the team’s hand early on, but for now it looks like it’ll be Christian Yelich in left field, Garrett Mitchell in center and likely Brian Anderson in right field. Tyrone Taylor’s eventual return will be a factor at some point, but he’s expected to miss at least the first month of the season.

Keston Hiura Will Not Make Brewers’ Roster

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The Brewers have informed infielder Keston Hiura he will not be on the active roster, general manager Matt Arnold told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Since he’s out of minor league option years, Milwaukee will have to trade him or place him on waivers in the next few days.

Arnold also indicated that outfielder Tyler Naquin — who is in camp on a minor league deal — won’t be on the team either (relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Naquin will have a chance to opt out of his contract and retest free agency if he doesn’t plan to accept an assignment to Triple-A Nashville.

The tougher call for the Milwaukee front office was to cut bait with Hiura. The ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft, he entered pro ball as one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Hiura flew through the minor leagues and was in the majors within two seasons. He hit the ground running, connecting on 19 home runs with a .303/.368/.570 line in 84 games as a rookie at age 22. That came with a somewhat concerning 30.7% strikeout rate, but it seemed fair to anticipate Hiura making strides from a contact perspective as he gained more experience against big league arms.

Unfortunately for player and team alike, that’s not how things have played out. While he hit 13 more homers in 59 games during the shortened season, his strikeouts jumped to 34.6%. That led to a meager .212/.297/.410 slash. The swing-and-miss concerns continued to mount the following year, as he punched out just under 40% of the time in 61 big league contests. That led Milwaukee to yo-yo between him the majors and Nashville, where Hiura hit for a ton of power and drew plenty of walks but continued striking out at an alarming clip.

It was a similar story in 2022. The UC-Irvine product got into 80 MLB games and drilled 14 homers. His .226/.316/.449 line was 15 percentage points better than last year’s league average offense, as measured by wRC+. Yet it came with a personal-high 41.7% strikeout percentage, the second-highest rate among the 358 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Any regression in his .355 batting average on balls in play could’ve left him around the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBP unless he took a step forward with his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a rough start this spring, striking out in 15 of 32 at-bats while hitting .156/.229/.219.

Unlike in prior years, the Brew Crew didn’t have the luxury of sending Hiura to Nashville to try to figure things out. Without any remaining options, they had to determine whether it was worth carrying him in a bench role. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a couple weeks ago, the decision was complicated by the presence of another right-handed first baseman, Luke Voit, who’s in camp on a minor league deal. Milwaukee parting ways with Hiura would seem to bode well for Voit’s chances of cracking the roster, though the club hasn’t yet indicated whether he’ll make the team.

The Brewers will take the next few days to evaluate their options with Hiura. It seems likely another team will have some interest in a change of scenery trade. He’s under arbitration control through the 2025 campaign and playing this year on an affordable $2.2MM salary. A win-now team like Milwaukee might not have room on the roster but a club with a less immediate contention window like the Nationals or Rockies could take a look. The Phillies are an immediate contender but just lost Rhys Hoskins to a likely season-ending ACL tear and could look for a righty bat to supplement the first base mix.

If Milwaukee were to place Hiura on waivers, any other team could grab him while assuming the salary. Should he go unclaimed, he’d almost certainly stick with the organization in Nashville. Hiura has between three and five years of service time, which gives him the right to refuse an outright assignment but would require relinquishing his salary to do so.

As for Naquin, he seems likely to explore his options on the market. The left-handed hitter is a career .274/.326/.468 hitter against righty pitching. He’s not a great defender and is best served in a platoon capacity but he could find immediate interest elsewhere. Naquin hit .194/.278/.258 in 12 games this spring.

With Tyrone Taylor set to open the season on the injured list, Milwaukee has a decision to make in right field. Christian Yelich will be in left and Garrett Mitchell seems a virtual lock for center. Right field time could fall to Brian Anderson or utility player Owen Miller but Milwaukee also has a pair of highly-regarded prospects in Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer. Neither has yet played in the majors but both hit well in Triple-A last year. Arnold said that either of Frelick or Wiemer breaking camp is “definitely in play” (via Hogg).

Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.

The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.

Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.

Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.

The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.

Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.

In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.

None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.

The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma

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Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.

Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.

That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.

Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.

As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.

Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.

Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.

It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.

Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.

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